The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Just for what it's worth, I don't want them to sell either. I agree with the vast majority of your post.

I want them to go out and BUY a starting pitcher with term. I want them to do it for this year's team AND to help the 2024+ window.

If they can't do this, I'd really like the idea of buying a middle infielder (probably 2b), also with term. Huge fan of the ideas of Gorman, Donovan or Edman. (While I like Gorman the best, I think Donovan and his ability to play 2b and the corner OF makes him a better fit). Edman would be more than fine, and probably cost a good bit less.

If they can't do either of options 1 or 2, I'd hope they make some short term acquisitions (lets say "Flaherty and DeJong").

If they are unable to achieve any of those goals, that is when I think they should sell (and I even get that they can't trade Paxton right now because they already are short two SPs and nobody in Worcester or Portland has shown anything to come up at this point, so you can't move them up). But they should try all reasonable avenues to invest in this team first.

They may be short two starters now but they have three on track to return within the next few weeks. If they haven't gone out and gotten a starter to fill in over the last 3-4 weeks when they've been using a lot of openers+bulk relievers, that suggests that they don't see another starter as a significant priority (they believe the injured players will be back). If the deals are there, they'll make them. If they're not, I don't see why standing pat and getting healthy isn't a perfectly acceptable path.

 

[soxin6]

They may be short two starters now but they have three on track to return within the next few weeks. If they haven't gone out and gotten a starter to fill in over the last 3-4 weeks when they've been using a lot of openers+bulk relievers, that suggests that they don't see another starter as a significant priority (they believe the injured players will be back). If the deals are there, they'll make them. If they're not, I don't see why standing pat and getting healthy isn't a perfectly acceptable path.

Of those three you mention, only one can stay healthy as a starting pitcher and he can't go through a lineup more than twice. None of those three pitchers can be considered a legitimate starter for the rest of this season. Houck can start, but he is great for the first time through the order and then his quality diminishes. Whitlock was lights out as a reliever and shows flashes as a starter, but he is an average starter who keeps getting hurt. Sale needs to be in bubble wrap at this point.

 

[dhappy42]

For what it's worth:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/red-sox-open-to-trade-offers-for-alex-verdugo.html

Five outfielders is probably one too many, especially with Rafaela knocking at the door. Verdugo should bring a bigger return than Duval.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

They may be short two starters now but they have three on track to return within the next few weeks. If they haven't gone out and gotten a starter to fill in over the last 3-4 weeks when they've been using a lot of openers+bulk relievers, that suggests that they don't see another starter as a significant priority (they believe the injured players will be back). If the deals are there, they'll make them. If they're not, I don't see why standing pat and getting healthy isn't a perfectly acceptable path.

Same thing applied last year, no?

Maybe it works out this year. Maybe it doesn't work out again this year. It's unknowable, obviously.

Either way, I did say that I understand why they cannot reasonably trade Paxton. But I think at minimum - if they chose to not add - one of Duvall (or Verdugo) should go in that case, since it also seems abundantly clear they're not working on an extension with Verdugo at this point. I'd still lean toward moving Duvall in that case, but if they got a haul for Verdugo, I'd get it.

*The one caveat I'll add in there to moving an OF is if they chose to go with Turner as the 2b almost every day. They haven't to this point - so I don't think they will - but that would enable them to use Duvall or Yoshida at DH consistently and replace the massive black hole of offensive suck that is and has been 2nd base all year.

 

[Van Everyman]

Five outfielders is probably one too many, especially with Rafaela knocking at the door. Verdugo should bring a bigger return than Duval.

Of course it also opens a hole for next season as Duvall is only signed for one year. And notwithstanding Verdugo’s terrible July, he’s been one of their best players and best right fielders in the game this season.

He’s somebody you trade if they’re blown away, otherwise no.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Same thing applied last year, no?

Maybe it works out this year. Maybe it doesn't work out again this year. It's unknowable, obviously.

Either way, I did say that I understand why they cannot reasonably trade Paxton. But I think at minimum one of Duvall (or Verdugo) should go in that case, since it also seems abundantly clear they're not working on an extension with Verdugo at this point.

What makes that abundantly clear?

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

What makes that abundantly clear?

“there’s been zero talks about an extension….they haven’t come to me with anything. So there’s not one way to lead me to believe that they’re interested in that, you know what I mean? There’s no real talks of an extension, so since there’s no real talk of getting anything done, there’s nothing to get done.”

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

@Red(s)HawksFan

That Verdugo said it.

“We haven’t even tried,” said Verdugo. “There’s been zero talks about an extension. I joke around about it, but they haven’t come to me with anything. So there’s not one way to lead me to believe that they’re interested in that, you know what I mean? There’s no real talks of an extension, so since there’s no real talk of getting anything done, there’s nothing to get done."

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/07/red-sox-of-alex-verdugo-on-trade-talk-honestly-i-really-dont-care.html

 

[dhappy42]

Of course it also opens a hole for next season as Duvall is only signed for one year. And notwithstanding Verdugo’s terrible July, he’s been one of their best players and best right fielders in the game this season.

He’s somebody you trade if they’re blown away, otherwise no.

Agree. I like Verdugo and am willing to wait for him to snap out of his current slump. My point is that it’s more likely that trading Verdugo (as opposed to Duvall) brings back somebody who provides value this year.

As for next year’s OF, Yoshida + Duran + Refsnyder + Rafaela = 4.

 

[InsideTheParker]

The choice between Duvall and Verdugo right now seems like a choice between offense and defense. I don't see Duvall making the catches that Verdugo makes. Maybe move Duran over to RF for the rest of the year?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The choice between Duvall and Verdugo right now seems like a choice between offense and defense. I don't see Duvall making the catches that Verdugo makes. Maybe move Duran over to RF for the rest of the year?

While Duran has improved defensively this season, he isn't someone you want in RF, especially at Fenway. For one, he does not have the arm for it.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Agree. I like Verdugo and am willing to wait for him to snap out of his current slump. My point is that it’s more likely that trading Verdugo (as opposed to Duvall) brings back somebody who provides value this year.

As for next year’s OF, Yoshida + Duran + Refsnyder + Rafaela = 4.

I don’t think Yoshida is as bad as the stats indicate (LF Fenway penalty) but he’s still not good. I don’t see RFSnyder as anything other than a platoon partner and Rafaela is green and probably best to be a super-duper SS/CF utility man for his first season.
I’d rather take the lesser return for Duvall (I don’t see either bringing back a difference maker for ‘23 or an impact prospect).

 

[Salem's Lot]

Agree. I like Verdugo and am willing to wait for him to snap out of his current slump. My point is that it’s more likely that trading Verdugo (as opposed to Duvall) brings back somebody who provides value this year.

As for next year’s OF, Yoshida + Duran + Refsnyder + Rafaela = 4.

Who is playing right field in that group? Does Rafaela have the arm for it?

 

[Mantush]

I don’t think the lack of extension talks with Verdugo’s camp shows anything. I doubt the team wants to negotiate an extension in the middle of the year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Who is playing right field in that group? Does Rafaela have the arm for it?

Probably someone they acquire in the offseason

 

[moondog80]

Who is playing right field in that group? Does Rafaela have the arm for it?

Yes. Has the arm for RF, CF, or SS.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don’t think the lack of extension talks with Verdugo’s camp shows anything. I doubt the team wants to negotiate an extension in the middle of the year.

Ding ding ding.

How many times have we seen players in line for or talking about an extension who declares in spring training "I don't want to talk about it once the season starts"? So now we're supposed to take the word of a player saying he hasn't been approached about an extension during the season and take that to mean the team has no interest at all in extending said player at all? I don't buy it. I believe Verdugo when he says he hasn't heard a word from the Sox about it this summer. I also believe that it's entirely possible the Sox have had internal discussions about him and will probably approach him this winter with some sort of offer. They can't really do that if they trade him now though.

I know there are reports that they're listening on Verdugo. That doesn't suggest they want to move him. It's probably the same deal as with Paxton. Teams are inquiring and the Sox are listening, but what it will take to get Verdugo, as with Paxton, is probably a prohibitive price for most teams. That's the luxury of being in a position where selling is not even close to a priority.

 

[Fishy1]

Of those three you mention, only one can stay healthy as a starting pitcher and he can't go through a lineup more than twice. None of those three pitchers can be considered a legitimate starter for the rest of this season. Houck can start, but he is great for the first time through the order and then his quality diminishes. Whitlock was lights out as a reliever and shows flashes as a starter, but he is an average starter who keeps getting hurt. Sale needs to be in bubble wrap at this point.

Can you show your work here on the bolded? First of all, all starters get worse as they go through a lineup. That's just being a starting pitcher.

Here's Houck's splits, starter to reliever:



A 4.00 ERA is pretty good. Keep in mind that's just the beginning of his career. Most pitchers take some time to acclimate.

Whitlock has struggled more as a starter, but he's only had 90 innings.



Secondly, Whitlock and Houck both have had good-to-excellent FIPS as starters in their career. They had to suffer through the days of Hernandez at short and Valdez at second-base, which was brutal on them, IIRC.

Whitlock's Starter stats:


Houck's starter stats:


Now, there's not room for all three of them already, so as much as I'd like to add another starter, I'm not sure exactly how there's room for one.

The team has been on a roll without them using bullpen games, which Murphy and Pivetta have been crushing.

If you can acquire a starting pitcher, of course, go and get one, but at some point you're out of room, and the price is going to be exorbitant, I suspect, so I'm not sure we're going to do it.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Can you show your work here on the bolded? First of all, all starters get worse as they go through a lineup. That's just being a starting pitcher.

Here's Houck's splits, starter to reliever:

View attachment 68312

A 4.00 ERA is pretty good. Keep in mind that's just the beginning of his career. Most pitchers take some time to acclimate.

Whitlock has struggled more as a starter, but he's only had 90 innings.

View attachment 68313

Secondly, Whitlock and Houck both have had good-to-excellent FIPS as starters in their career. They had to suffer through the days of Hernandez at short and Valdez at second-base, which was brutal on them, IIRC.

Whitlock's Starter stats:

View attachment 68314
Houck's starter stats:
View attachment 68315

Now, there's not room for all three of them already, so as much as I'd like to add another starter, I'm not sure exactly how there's room for one.

The team has been on a roll without them using bullpen games, which Murphy and Pivetta have been crushing.

If you can acquire a starting pitcher, of course, go and get one, but at some point you're out of room, and the price is going to be exorbitant, I suspect, so I'm not sure we're going to do it.

Even if those 3 aren’t starting…. Add Pivetta and Murphy into the mix and they’ve got 5 guys to cover 2 games. I actually trust Cora to maximize that combination asset while keeping Paxton, Bello and Crawford as more regular starters.
Those other 5 present a good combo of lefty/righty guys to give 7-8 good innings right away, maximizing their strengths and minimizithe weaknesses of them over the next two months

 

[Fishy1]

Even if those 3 aren’t starting…. Add Pivetta and Murphy into the mix and they’ve got 5 guys to cover 2 games. I actually trust Cora to maximize that combination asset while keeping Paxton, Bello and Crawford as more regular starters.
Those other 5 present a good combo of lefty/righty guys to give 7-8 good innings right away, maximizing their strengths and minimizithe weaknesses of them over the next two months

Exactly. Murphy and Pivetta in 3-5 inning spurts depending on how good Houck and Whitlock and Sale have been seems like a great way to maximize everyone's effectiveness. If Houck or Whitlock or Sale breeze through seven innings, more power to em. If Sale needs to just pitch 3-5 innings the rest of the way, then Murphy can come in after him and continue the onslaught of tough breaking-balls. It seems like a win-win situation for us, having all of these pitchers and so many of them succeeding, rather than a problem that needs a fix.

Murphy's ERA is 1.59 right now. Are we really in a rush to bring someone else in? Cause if we do, we might end up needing to demote him.

 

[YTF]

Even if those 3 aren’t starting…. Add Pivetta and Murphy into the mix and they’ve got 5 guys to cover 2 games. I actually trust Cora to maximize that combination asset while keeping Paxton, Bello and Crawford as more regular starters.
Those other 5 present a good combo of lefty/righty guys to give 7-8 good innings right away, maximizing their strengths and minimizithe weaknesses of them over the next two months

I think this is what it looks like for a couple of weeks until at least two of the returning three can build up some innings. That said continuing to commit two guys to those starts seems less than ideal as you continue making multiple guys unavailable for several days after an appearance which can be tough as the season wears on. It's worked out pretty good so far, here's hoping it can continue for a bit longer.

 

[chawson]

For what it's worth:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/red-sox-open-to-trade-offers-for-alex-verdugo.html

Hard to gauge tone and context in any quote, but Verdugo sounds kind of...frustrated? Resigned? Typically loose-lipped?

“Honestly, I don’t care. I don’t care,” said Verdugo Sunday morning at Oracle Park. “Whatever happens, happens. I really don’t care about that stuff. I’m here playing, I’m with the Red Sox. I thought the same thing when I was with the Dodgers. I thought I wouldn’t get traded and I ended up getting traded. This isn’t my first time and I feel like once you get traded, you don’t care. You don’t care.

“I want to stay with the Red Sox. I want to be here. But at the end of the day, it’s a business and all I have to do is go out and play. I separate (the game and the business.)”

 

[RedOctober3829]

Verdugo and Houck would be two guys I would be OK with trading. If they can trade Verdugo in order to grab prospects to use in another trade for a good starting pitcher, that's something they should explore. With Houck, I don't think he's ever going to be a quality starter. They've got Schreiber, Martin, Winckowski, and potentially Whitlock as late inning RH relief options.

 

[nvalvo]

With Houck, I don't think he's ever going to be a quality starter.

Say more. From where I sit he has answered a bunch of questions about platoon splits and times through the order. But I was in the other camp recently. What are you seeing?

 

[Sin Duda]

Hard to gauge tone and context in any quote, but Verdugo sounds kind of...frustrated? Resigned? Typically loose-lipped?

“Honestly, I don’t care. I don’t care,” said Verdugo Sunday morning at Oracle Park. “Whatever happens, happens. I really don’t care about that stuff. I’m here playing, I’m with the Red Sox. I thought the same thing when I was with the Dodgers. I thought I wouldn’t get traded and I ended up getting traded. This isn’t my first time and I feel like once you get traded, you don’t care. You don’t care.

“I want to stay with the Red Sox. I want to be here. But at the end of the day, it’s a business and all I have to do is go out and play. I separate (the game and the business.)”

Keep in mind that its *very* unlikely that Verdugo brought this up unprompted. The Boston press are notorious for asking about contracts all the time. Verdugo has another whole season of control. There's no need to talk contract in July 2023.

 

[bosockboy]

Keep in mind that its *very* unlikely that Verdugo brought this up unprompted. The Boston press are notorious for asking about contracts all the time. Verdugo has another whole season of control. There's no need to talk contract in July 2023.

He’s also in a horrendous slump which probably affects his tone.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Who is playing right field in that group? Does Rafaela have the arm for it?

Ohtani of course!

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Worth a conversation...

 

[chawson]

Worth a conversation...
View attachment 68334

One poll I'd like to see is how many SOSHers would trade Duran for Soto straight up right now.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Worth a conversation...
View attachment 68334

If we had Soto locked down for several years, yes. For 2-3 months, no.

 

[bosockboy]

If we had Soto locked down for several years, yes. For 2-3 months, no.

It’s a year and 2-3 months. But probably same answer here.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

If we had Soto locked down for several years, yes. For 2-3 months, no.

Soto is a free agent after the 2024 season FWIW.

 

[chawson]

If we had Soto locked down for several years, yes. For 2-3 months, no.

It'd be another year tacked onto that (FA 2025). But I do suspect the Sox would have a very good shot at extending him.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I think a Soto trade is absolutely an offseason trade where an extension negotiation can take place as well. Those extension window negotiations have historically gone very well for the Red Sox (see: Rodriguez, Alex).

 

[RedOctober3829]

Say more. From where I sit he has answered a bunch of questions about platoon splits and times through the order. But I was in the other camp recently. What are you seeing?

Just looking at his overall numbers this year. 5.05 ERA(4.22 WHIP) 92 ERA+. I just think that going forward into 2024 that they can do better than him in the rotation. In the pen, he's good but they have a number of options from the right side.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Soto is a free agent after the 2024 season FWIW.

Thought he was only signed through this year ... My bad

 

[BigSoxFan]

One poll I'd like to see is how many SOSHers would trade Duran for Soto straight up right now.

*eagerly raises hand*

 

[bosockboy]

One poll I'd like to see is how many SOSHers would trade Duran for Soto straight up right now.

With Rafaela coming soon, yes.

 

[Max Power]

Fitting both Soto and Yoshida into the lineup would be difficult. They're very similar players and neither is up to handling center or Fenway's right field.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Cross Aaron Civale off your wishlist:

View: https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1686097231290478592

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Just looking at his overall numbers this year. 5.05 ERA(4.22 WHIP) 92 ERA+. I just think that going forward into 2024 that they can do better than him in the rotation. In the pen, he's good but they have a number of options from the right side.

From Houck's BBSavant page, it seems like he's introduced a cutter this year, and seems to have been leaning more on his split fastball. The split has become his highest percentage "whiff inducing" pitch at 46.8% and he's used both of them a lot more against LH batters. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tanner-houck-656557?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. It backs up a lot of this information about a refined arsenal from Jen McCaffery in the Athletic during Spring Training (https://theathletic.com/4321401/2023/03/17/tanner-houck-arsenal-rotation-spot/).

I don't know if this is a function of smaller sample size, or of just using more pitches in his mix since he's been starting all year, BUT the fact that he's not been afraid to use them makes me very interested to see what he has for another year starting in the rotation. At least opposed to Whitlock as he seems uncapable of handling a starter's workload to this point.

With Bello, Crawford and Houck, I do feel pretty good about the 2024 rotation, at least as far as a 2, a 4 and a 5 go, with upside from probably all of those spots. Not that I'm against them doing better than Houck, but I'd rather see them focus resources on two "top half" starters and let Houck have another shot at the 5 spot.

Or, put another way - Cease, Bello, Yamamoto, Crawford and Houck I'd be VERY good with. But if you're looking at Bello, depending on 35 year old Sale to give you 15+ starts for the first time during his extension, Crawford, Whitlock and "Sean Manaea" filling the Corey Kluber role, not so much.

 

[moondog80]

Fitting both Soto and Yoshida into the lineup would be difficult. They're very similar players and neither is up to handling center or Fenway's right field.

Right. Definitely less than ideal, unless they want to make Turner a full time 2B. Which I doubt is the case.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Fitting both Soto and Yoshida into the lineup would be difficult. They're very similar players and neither is up to handling center or Fenway's right field.

2023:
Duvall/Duran in Center and Right, Yoshida and Soto in Left/DH
Turner at 1B, 2B or DH

2024:
No Turner or Duvall
Yoshida and Soto are primarily LF / DH in Fenway, LF / RF on the road.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I guess I’ll be the first to say I’d do that trade in a cocaine heartbeat. Juan Soto has been an historic player up to this point and it is only because he is having a down year that we could make that trade for him. Get Soto, play out this year and see what happens knowing that if you get into the postseason your lineup looks much stronger, go into 2024 in much better shape, and then decide whether you want to break the bank for him. The odds that Bleis turns into half the player Soto is is negligible.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Worth a conversation...
View attachment 68334

Personally, I'd rather use Bleis as part of the centerpiece for a SP with term that isn't the generational player that Soto is, but fits a need more (as in I feel really good about where the Sox stand with the core of position players, but much less so in the rotation).

However, to the specific question, if San Diego would actually do this, I agree totally with @Merkle's Boner; I'd do this deal and not think twice.

 

[pdub]

You absolutely trade Durran for Soto if you get that opportunity. Soto currently has an OPS of .923 (career .946) and he's only 24 years old. No-brainer.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Would love to see the Sox go after Josh Hader. The offense is good enough, and I don’t think they will go after any of the available SP….why not make a move for a, dare I say, elite, reliever and further shorten the game that way? Would have a pretty deadly bullpen.

 

[moondog80]

As Max Power pointed out, trading for Soto means you're OK with one of the follwing:

-Soto or Yoshida playing RF
-Turner playing 2B
-One of Yoshida/Soto/Devers/Casas/Turner out of the lineup.

Of those, I think I'd choose Soto in RF. He'd no doubt mash, but you're giving back a nice chunk of that with him in RF at Fenway. I dunno.

 

[chrisfont9]

Personally, I'd rather use Bleis as part of the centerpiece for a SP with term that isn't the generational player that Soto is, but fits a need more (as in I feel really good about where the Sox stand with the core of position players, but much less so in the rotation).

However, to the specific question, if San Diego would actually do this, I agree totally with @Merkle's Boner; I'd do this deal and not think twice.

Might be hard to get appropriate value for Bleis while he is injured. Of course, we can debate "appropriate value" for a prospect, but no question it's at a low ebb until he starts playing again.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I'd do that trade and then make sure to escort Duran into the San Diego clubhouse before Preller realizes that he's effectively turned Mackenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and James Woods into Jarren Duran.

FWIW, I think @BigSoxFan is bang on in this post about what it'd take to get Soto, or at least what the Pads' initial ask would be: Casas, Bello, Bleis, and Anthony.