The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

[nvalvo]

A Realistic but Optimistic Scenario

It's July 19.

They've had a scorching hot month since mid-June, but it came against week opposition: they swept the Yankees, who were in free fall, and then took three of four on the road against the Twins, who were also in free fall, before sweeping a three-game set in Chicago in New Comiskey. They split the next 12 games against Miami, Toronto, Texas, and Oakland, and went into the All Star Break 49-42. But then they ran off another six-game win streak against the Cubs and Athletics coming out of the break, and sat at 55-42, a .567 winning percentage, in possession of third place in the AL East and the second wild card spot.

The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. After the deadline, the teams remaining on the schedule are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.

Raquel Ferreira calls you up (remember, this is fiction) and asks you what you think the team should do.

Relevant IL considerations:

• Tanner Houck is throwing off a mound, and is headed to Portland for rehab starts in the next few days.
• Chris Sale is set to begin throwing from flat ground, and a typical progression would get him into rehab starts in the second week of August.
• Trevor Story is hitting and throwing and doing fielding drills in Fort Myers, and aiming for a few dozen PA before he returns.
• In this fictional scenario, no one else of note has been injured.

Relevant minor league considerations:

• Bobby Dalbec has an OPS over 1.000 in AAA;
• Wilyer Abreu has an OPS over .850 in AAA;
• Enmanuel Valdez has an OPS around .900 in AAA;
• David Hamilton has an OPS around .830 in AAA;
• Shane Drohan is the only pitcher of any note in AAA, and he's on a bit of a run that has brought his International League ERA down to 4.25.
• In Portland, Yorke has an OPS around .880.
• Ceddanne Rafaela's hot streak has continued, and his OPS is a tic over .800.
• Chase Meidroth still has an OBP-heavy .850 OPS.
• Marcelo Mayer has gotten his footing, but still has an OPS around .670 at AA.
• On the pitching side, Luis Guerrero has gotten his early-season walk struggles under control, and now looks like a late-inning relief option as soon as 2024.
• Grant Gambrell is the most interesting starter at the level, with a 3.00ish ERA miles below his FIP, but a sky-high groundball rate driven by a heavy sinker.
• In High-A Greenville, teams are asking about closer Chris Troye, who has 55 K in 30 IP.
• On the offensive side, 19-year-old Roman Anthony is one of the youngest players in the league and also one of the five best hitters. That is getting some attention.
• Miguel Bleis is shut down for the season with a shoulder injury.

What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?

A Realistic but Pessimistic Scenario

It's July 19.

The Red Sox have sleepwalked through the last month, often playing down to the level of their opposition and looking overmatched against stronger teams. They took three of four from the Twins, but then scuffled against the White Sox, Miami, Toronto and Texas, before righting the ship with a stronger stretch of play against the A's and Cubs. They sit at 50-47, leading only Toronto in the East, and two games out of the third wild card spot. The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. It will take a good performance to still be three above .500 come the deadline.

The teams remaining on the schedule after the deadline are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.

Brian O'Halloran calls you up and asks you what you think the team should do.

Same IL and minor league considerations as above. What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?

I have some ideas, but I'd like to let you all start. Feel free to sketch out your own proposals and scenarios, but I'd like to avoid trade proposals divorced from some account of the lay of the land.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

If the plan is to give the kids reps while remaining on the fringe on contention, then Bloom should stay the course and only deal the ones who won't be here next year. If the goal is suddenly to contend this year, then it might get messy. Dalbec seems like their best trade chip in the farm system, a guy who might excel with a change of scenery (maybe to an NL team), and would be the first guy they try to move for value.

Will they give Fitz a look this year now that the vaccine issue is no longer an issue?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If the plan is to give the kids reps while remaining on the fringe on contention, then Bloom should stay the course and only deal the ones who won't be here next year. If the goal is suddenly to contend this year, then it might get messy. Dalbec seems like their best trade chip in the farm system, a guy who might excel with a change of scenery (maybe to an NL team), and would be the first guy they try to move for value.

Will they give Fitz a look this year now that the vaccine issue is no longer an issue?

Give Fitz a look for what? I suspect it will take multiple outfield injuries before he "gets a look" with the Red Sox. Vaccine issues have nothing to do with anything. He's not a prospect. He's organizational filler.

 

[chrisfont9]

In the optimistic scenario you still don't totally need a long term solution at SP. Could you get Michael Lorenzen cheaply off Detroit? He's an expiring contract. Others are Lance Lynn, Edro, and some worse options. Or the higher end gambles on Stroman or Giolito, assuming you want to sign them long term (given the likely cost), but IMO that is way too much risk.

 

[simplicio]

In the optimistic scenario you still don't totally need a long term solution at SP. Could you get Michael Lorenzen cheaply off Detroit? He's an expiring contract. Others are Lance Lynn, Edro, and some worse options. Or the higher end gambles on Stroman or Giolito, assuming you want to sign them long term (given the likely cost), but IMO that is way too much risk.

I mentioned it in the SP thread, but without more separation it may be hard to find sellers in the AL Central. Everyone but KC has a reasonable shot at the division lead right now.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

In the optimistic scenario they should be doing what they did in 2021 - not selling the farm for anyone but on the lookout for cheap rentals that can be had for virtually nothing (a la Schwarber).

In the pessimistic scenario they should be sellers of anyone who is not signed long term (Duvall, Paxton, etc.)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I honestly don’t know who but if there’s a decent (no. 3 type) young healthy SP available (say 2 more years of control) for Yorke/Dalbec Bloom should do it.

 

[chrisfont9]

I honestly don’t know who but if there’s a decent (no. 3 type) young healthy SP available (say 2 more years of control) for Yorke/Dalbec Bloom should do it.

Not sure you could get that level of quality for 2.5 years of control for those two guys. 1.5 maybe.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Maybe see what we can get from San Diego for Dalbec and a pitching prospect? Cronenworth has regressed pretty hard and is a better 2B anyway, and the rest of their options include flotsam, jetsam, and the corpse of Matt Carpenter. Milwaukee could also be a potential trade partner - they've cycled through 6 different players this year, led by Rowdy Tellez and his quiet 93 OPS+.

 

[chawson]

A Realistic but Optimistic Scenario

It's July 19.

They've had a scorching hot month since mid-June, but it came against week opposition: they swept the Yankees, who were in free fall, and then took three of four on the road against the Twins, who were also in free fall, before sweeping a three-game set in Chicago in New Comiskey. They split the next 12 games against Miami, Toronto, Texas, and Oakland, and went into the All Star Break 49-42. But then they ran off another six-game win streak against the Cubs and Athletics coming out of the break, and sat at 55-42, a .567 winning percentage, in possession of third place in the AL East and the second wild card spot.

The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. After the deadline, the teams remaining on the schedule are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.

Raquel Ferreira calls you up (remember, this is fiction) and asks you what you think the team should do.

Relevant IL considerations:

• Tanner Houck is throwing off a mound, and is headed to Portland for rehab starts in the next few days.
• Chris Sale is set to begin throwing from flat ground, and a typical progression would get him into rehab starts in the second week of August.
• Trevor Story is hitting and throwing and doing fielding drills in Fort Myers, and aiming for a few dozen PA before he returns.
• In this fictional scenario, no one else of note has been injured.

Relevant minor league considerations:

• Bobby Dalbec has an OPS over 1.000 in AAA;
• Wilyer Abreu has an OPS over .850 in AAA;
• Enmanuel Valdez has an OPS around .900 in AAA;
• David Hamilton has an OPS around .830 in AAA;
• Shane Drohan is the only pitcher of any note in AAA, and he's on a bit of a run that has brought his International League ERA down to 4.25.
• In Portland, Yorke has an OPS around .880.
• Ceddanne Rafaela's hot streak has continued, and his OPS is a tic over .800.
• Chase Meidroth still has an OBP-heavy .850 OPS.
• Marcelo Mayer has gotten his footing, but still has an OPS around .670 at AA.
• On the pitching side, Luis Guerrero has gotten his early-season walk struggles under control, and now looks like a late-inning relief option as soon as 2024.
• Grant Gambrell is the most interesting starter at the level, with a 3.00ish ERA miles below his FIP, but a sky-high groundball rate driven by a heavy sinker.
• In High-A Greenville, teams are asking about closer Chris Troye, who has 55 K in 30 IP.
• On the offensive side, 19-year-old Roman Anthony is one of the youngest players in the league and also one of the five best hitters. That is getting some attention.
• Miguel Bleis is shut down for the season with a shoulder injury.

What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?

A Realistic but Pessimistic Scenario

It's July 19.

The Red Sox have sleepwalked through the last month, often playing down to the level of their opposition and looking overmatched against stronger teams. They took three of four from the Twins, but then scuffled against the White Sox, Miami, Toronto and Texas, before righting the ship with a stronger stretch of play against the A's and Cubs. They sit at 50-47, leading only Toronto in the East, and two games out of the third wild card spot. The trade deadline is a week and change away, but before it comes, the Red Sox will need to face some considerably stiffer opponents: three with the resurgent Mets, two with the Braves, and three with the Giants. It will take a good performance to still be three above .500 come the deadline.

The teams remaining on the schedule after the deadline are a mixed bag: Seattle, Toronto, KC, Detroit, and Washington, but then a bruising conclusion with series against Houston, NYY, LAD, and Houston again.

Brian O'Halloran calls you up and asks you what you think the team should do.

Same IL and minor league considerations as above. What sorts of moves are you pitching the FO on in this scenario?

I have some ideas, but I'd like to let you all start. Feel free to sketch out your own proposals and scenarios, but I'd like to avoid trade proposals divorced from some account of the lay of the land.

Good post, was thinking it was time to start a trade deadline thread. The What does 2023 look like? mega-thread is nearing its one-year anniversary. SOSH should publish it, maybe pitch it as a Netflix series.

A lot of ways to answer this, as you've noted. Personally, I think we're in for more needle-threading this year. McAdam, Shaughnessy, et al. have probably already pre-written their hit pieces and just have to plug in the proper nouns, but it's probably the correct move. We need to give a lot of young guys playing time to let them develop at the major league level, and in most cases I'd like to prioritize that.

Last year's trade deadline had some smart (imo) preemptive deals that shored up needs we'd have addressed in the winter, like grabbing McGuire. I think we'll do the same this year, make a couple of sly moves that may be easier than a few months from now.

One I could see is grabbing Paul DeJong from the Cardinals. He makes $9.2 million this year and has club options for '24 ($12.5 million) and '25 ($15 million). Those option years seemed exorbitant a few months ago, but now I'm not so sure, and it's hard to say if St. Louis will pick them up. DeJong is a streaky hitter who whiffs a lot, but his high loft power seems like a good Fenway fit and he plays great defense by most metrics. Even if Story is the starting shortstop, DeJong would be pretty useful to have around as a depth guy until Mayer is ready, and we're really lacking in RHH power.

The loss of Schreiber, Brasier and Mills (and Houck) have left us with a bullpen that's pretty short on good sliders. Pivetta's isn't great, and Ort's is getting creamed. Drew Verhagen is in the final year of a two-year deal and has a great sweeper. Maybe Mata, Lugo and Ryan Fitzgerald (or Troye?) for DeJong and Drew Verhagen? Or maybe we just ask the White Sox to give us Joe Kelly.

FWIW, I think we're going to go hard for Soto, if the Padres can't re-sign him. His long window of superstardom lines up perfectly with our next prospect core' maturation. It's possible we sign Yamamoto, but most of next winter's free agents are uninteresting, and I don't think we otherwise make a real spending splash until 2025.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Good post, was thinking it was time to start a trade deadline thread. The What does 2023 look like? mega-thread is nearing its one-year anniversary. SOSH should publish it, maybe pitch it as a Netflix series.

A lot of ways to answer this, as you've noted. Personally, I think we're in for more needle-threading this year. McAdam, Shaughnessy, et al. have probably already pre-written their hit pieces and just have to plug in the proper nouns, but it's probably the correct move. We need to give a lot of young guys playing time to let them develop at the major league level, and in most cases I'd like to prioritize that.

Last year's trade deadline had some smart (imo) preemptive deals that shored up needs we'd have addressed in the winter, like grabbing McGuire. I think we'll do the same this year, make a couple of sly moves that may be easier than a few months from now.

One I could see is grabbing Paul DeJong from the Cardinals. He makes $9.2 million this year and has club options for '24 ($12.5 million) and '25 ($15 million). Those option years seemed exorbitant a few months ago, but now I'm not so sure, and it's hard to say if St. Louis will pick them up. DeJong is a streaky hitter who whiffs a lot, but his high loft power seems like a good Fenway fit and he plays great defense by most metrics. Even if Story is the starting shortstop, DeJong would be pretty useful to have around as a depth guy until Mayer is ready, and we're really lacking in RHH power.

The loss of Schreiber, Brasier and Mills (and Houck) have left us with a bullpen that's pretty short on good sliders. Pivetta's isn't great, and Ort's is getting creamed. Drew Verhagen is in the final year of a two-year deal and has a great sweeper. Maybe Mata, Lugo and Ryan Fitzgerald (or Troye?) for DeJong and Drew Verhagen? Or maybe we just ask the White Sox to give us Joe Kelly.

FWIW, I think we're going to go hard for Soto, if the Padres can't re-sign him. His long window of superstardom lines up perfectly with our next prospect core' maturation. It's possible we sign Yamamoto, but most of next winter's free agents are uninteresting, and I don't think we otherwise make a real spending splash until 2025.

I absolutely love Soto's bat in this lineup - who wouldn't? - but I'm struggling to think of where we put him defensively. He's a butcher out there. Does he become a full-time DH or split time with Yoshida?

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Any teams that may want to seriously pursue Ohtani may have contracts for the next few years they'd like to unload. Wouldn't mind finding a way to find one that helps us and possibly comes with a lottery pick or two. I'm all in on letting the kids play this year and see what the market is for guys we aren't planning to keep long-term - Duval, Dalbac, Paxton, etc. Not a lot to offer, so my expectations would be fairly low on return.

 

[YTF]

This isn't a sexy move, but if there isn't a guy in house that is able to fill the role Bloom needs to find a capable catcher that he can add to the 40. He's done well bringing in Wong and McGuire and even Alfaro for depth, but the first two are on the 26 man and Alfaro opted out before there was a use for him.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Any teams that may want to seriously pursue Ohtani may have contracts for the next few years they'd like to unload. Wouldn't mind finding a way to find one that helps us and possibly comes with a lottery pick or two. I'm all in on letting the kids play this year and see what the market is for guys we aren't planning to keep long-term - Duval, Dalbac, Paxton, etc. Not a lot to offer, so my expectations would be fairly low on return.

What teams are those though? I see them as NYY, Texas, Seattle, Anaheim (I don't think it's unlikely they'll try to resign him), LAD and SF as the likeliest with only the Cubs, Philly and NYM as 2nd tier possibilities. The first tier teams are all still very much in the race and I don't think any of the 2nd tier teams see themselves as "out of it" right now.
Depending on the health of Sale around mid July and where the Sox are in the standings... I'd rather pursue a guy like Giolito or Montgomery, and since they'd be a rental, could be had for relatively cheaply (Dalbec and one of Murphy or Walter- preferably Walter) and try to get a low level young pitcher in the deal too.
I'd suspect either of them would sign for a 3-year deal also which would be good to have as depth for '24.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

This isn't a sexy move, but if there isn't a guy in house that is able to fill the role Bloom needs to find a capable catcher that he can add to the 40. He's done well bringing in Wong and McGuire and even Alfaro for depth, but the first two are on the 26 man and Alfaro opted out before there was a use for him.

Zunino and Leon were both recently released. Not exciting but I agree it would be something to pursue

 

[YTF]

Zunino and Leon were both recently released. Not exciting but I agree it would be something to pursue

Ideally something a bit more long term, a classic backup type. But there definitely is a need ATM.

 

[Max Power]

I absolutely love Soto's bat in this lineup - who wouldn't? - but I'm struggling to think of where we put him defensively. He's a butcher out there. Does he become a full-time DH or split time with Yoshida?

$40 million for a DH when they already have 90% of the same player in Yoshida doesn't seem like a great idea. Ohtani would obviously fit anywhere since he's only taking a pitcher roster spot and you could get a backup corner infielder on the team easily.

If the team wants to stick with Casas, the only places on the field that you could easily upgrade are 2B/SS (wherever Story isn't) and CF. The free agents for those positions are grim, so any acquisition would have to come in a trade.

 

[RS2004foreever]

If you only care about this year - trade Casas for a young starter. Basically a prospect for prospect swap. Then you bring Dalbec up and the mix is Turner at first, Yoshi at DH and the OF is Duran/Duvall/Dougie with Dalbec playing first occasionally.
I wouldn't do this unless you really get a young starter who has proved at the ML level to some degree - and with Casas looking pretty good since May 1 you may find a partner.

Outside of that, I would think they try to shore up the bullpen.

 

[walt in maryland]

Good post, was thinking it was time to start a trade deadline thread. The What does 2023 look like? mega-thread is nearing its one-year anniversary. SOSH should publish it, maybe pitch it as a Netflix series.

A lot of ways to answer this, as you've noted. Personally, I think we're in for more needle-threading this year. McAdam, Shaughnessy, et al. have probably already pre-written their hit pieces and just have to plug in the proper nouns, but it's probably the correct move. We need to give a lot of young guys playing time to let them develop at the major league level, and in most cases I'd like to prioritize that.

Last year's trade deadline had some smart (imo) preemptive deals that shored up needs we'd have addressed in the winter, like grabbing McGuire. I think we'll do the same this year, make a couple of sly moves that may be easier than a few months from now.

One I could see is grabbing Paul DeJong from the Cardinals. He makes $9.2 million this year and has club options for '24 ($12.5 million) and '25 ($15 million). Those option years seemed exorbitant a few months ago, but now I'm not so sure, and it's hard to say if St. Louis will pick them up. DeJong is a streaky hitter who whiffs a lot, but his high loft power seems like a good Fenway fit and he plays great defense by most metrics. Even if Story is the starting shortstop, DeJong would be pretty useful to have around as a depth guy until Mayer is ready, and we're really lacking in RHH power.

The loss of Schreiber, Brasier and Mills (and Houck) have left us with a bullpen that's pretty short on good sliders. Pivetta's isn't great, and Ort's is getting creamed. Drew Verhagen is in the final year of a two-year deal and has a great sweeper. Maybe Mata, Lugo and Ryan Fitzgerald (or Troye?) for DeJong and Drew Verhagen? Or maybe we just ask the White Sox to give us Joe Kelly.

FWIW, I think we're going to go hard for Soto, if the Padres can't re-sign him. His long window of superstardom lines up perfectly with our next prospect core' maturation. It's possible we sign Yamamoto, but most of next winter's free agents are uninteresting, and I don't think we otherwise make a real spending splash until 2025.

I like DeJong too, but that contract is a non-starter when you consider that Story is returning and Mayer could be ready at some time next year.

 

[walt in maryland]

If you only care about this year - trade Casas for a young starter. Basically a prospect for prospect swap. Then you bring Dalbec up and the mix is Turner at first, Yoshi at DH and the OF is Duran/Duvall/Dougie with Dalbec playing first occasionally.
I wouldn't do this unless you really get a young starter who has proved at the ML level to some degree - and with Casas looking pretty good since May 1 you may find a partner.

Outside of that, I would think they try to shore up the bullpen.

Trade Casas and keep Dalbec? I think you've got that reversed

 

[walt in maryland]

Ideally something a bit more long term, a classic backup type. But there definitely is a need ATM.

Zunino had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last year and doesn't seem to have bounced back. Leon is a decent short-term option.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Trade Casas and keep Dalbec? I think you've got that reversed

He's saying that if you want something GOOD in a trade, it'd be Casas. And that's IF you want to gamble in a higher playoff chance. I don't think it was advocating for that deal.

 

[chawson]

$40 million for a DH when they already have 90% of the same player in Yoshida doesn't seem like a great idea. Ohtani would obviously fit anywhere since he's only taking a pitcher roster spot and you could get a backup corner infielder on the team easily.

If the team wants to stick with Casas, the only places on the field that you could easily upgrade are 2B/SS (wherever Story isn't) and CF. The free agents for those positions are grim, so any acquisition would have to come in a trade.

We don't have Yoshida in perpetuity though, and Soto is five years younger.

Soto is not a great fielder but the concern seems overblown. Right now he grades as a roughly average left fielder by OAA (-1), which is a tick up from Yoshida (-3). He was a +4 outfielder in 2021. He graded poorly last year (when he battled back and calf injuries) mostly on plays where he ranged back. He's less of a problem on plays going in. That's the same issue with Yoshida — solid when charging in, maybe less so on balls over his head — which is why he fits better in Fenway's left field than elsewhere. I don't see why Soto couldn't handle it until he's at least 32 or so.

I'd obviously agree with you on Ohtani but my assumption is that he's not interested. On the one hand, we have a guy with stated interest to play on the West Coast, and on the other, a guy who grew up idolizing David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez.

It's an interesting thing to wager on. Who will be the next player the Sox commit $100+ to? My answer is probably already in the organization, but who would the next FA be? I can't I think if they wanted to spend money on upgrades at 2B/SS, they would have been more in on last year's crew.

 

[soxhop411]

We don't have Yoshida in perpetuity though, and Soto is five years younger.

Soto is not a great fielder but the concern over his fielding seems overblown. Right now he grades as a roughly average left fielder by OAA (-1), which is a tick up from Yoshida (-3). He was a +4 outfielder in 2021. He graded poorly last year (when he battled back and calf injuries) mostly on plays where he ranged back. He's less of a problem on plays going in. That's the same issue with Yoshida — solid when charging in, maybe less so on balls over his head — which is why he fits better in Fenway's left field than elsewhere. I don't see why Soto couldn't handle it until he's at least 32 or so.

I'd obviously agree with you on Ohtani but my assumption is that he's not interested. On the one hand, we have a guy with stated interest to play on the West Coast, and on the other, a guy who grew up idolizing David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez.

It's an interesting thing to wager on. Who will be the next player the Sox commit $100+ to? My answer is probably already in the organization, but who would the next FA be? I can't I think if they wanted to spend money on upgrades at 2B/SS, they would have been more in on last year's crew.

IMO the next 100+ million contract the sox give to a (non sox FA) will be a hitter and not a pitcher. Sox have gotten burnered on many large contracts for pitchers in the past. Which makes the Ohtani situation very unique.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ideally something a bit more long term, a classic backup type. But there definitely is a need ATM.

They have Wong under team control for five more years and McGuire for two. I'm not sure they need something long term in a "classic backup" mold, and if they do, I think Caleb Hamilton can be that guy. He has options so he can be sent back to Worcester without waivers. He's not much of a hitter, but he's very good defensively. That's perfectly adequate if he's only playing every 4-5 days until McGuire is back.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Interesting ideas on the OP.

One of the things that I find really interesting to discuss and try to ascertain is the organizational philosophy at present in terms of prospect redundancy. An obvious strength of Dombrowski was identifying which prospects to hold and which to move, and even though he didn't do a ton to focus on building the farm (as has been gone over time and again) he did an excellent job of knowing which guys to hold on to and which to move. I can't think of a single prospect he moved that came back to bite him, and the guys he held are now looking like significant pieces of the future.

To be clear, Bloom gets credit as well for not moving guys like Bello, Casas, Houck, etc, but he really hasn't sent any prospects out the door in major moves either. I don't think there is enough data to judge on if evaluation of prospects is a strength or a weakness, and honestly, we don't know what his general philosophy on prospect moves, especially prospect redundancy, is going to look like.


All I mean is that, realistically, there is not enough room in Boston for all of Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, Valdez, Abreu and Hamilton, all of whom seem to play "up the middle", to encompass middle infield and CF as positions and all of whom Sox prospects project coming up sometime between now and the end of 2024. Those things sort themselves out, either in terms of development or lack thereof or trades, of course.

But the question I have would be is Bloom planning to hold them all to hedge his bets or is he planning to take more of the DDski route and move "redundancy" for MLB help. Both are defensible strategies and logical options, but clearly he can't choose both courses, and I don't think we've seen enough to know what he'd aim for. I tend to think it'd be more of the former and trying to thread the needle like we did in 2021, but I certainly don't know for sure and I don't know if anyone has an educated read on that.


I agree with the idea that I'd like to find another starter to go with the kids, that has multiple years of control (or would be a reasonable extension candidate) OR even a prospect for prospect swap - allowing how rare those often can be. The single best (and most important) thing about this year is the development of Bello (4.00 fip); Whitlock (4.04) and Houck (4.22) into what look like legitimate core pieces of the rotation for the 2025-2030 Red Sox. Paxton has provided a heck of a lot more than i expected he would (but I'm not exactly prepared to bet on him being productive in his age 36, 37 and 38 seasons, so to speak. Sale has provided exactly what I thought he'd provide. Crawford has provided more than I'd have thought as a starter and certainly has been good enough to say there is no reason to move him from the starters role (3.19fip).

Bieber or Burnes are obviously the "dream" scenario, but probably not realistic. However would someone like Woodruff or Peralta be available from the Brewers. Maybe Cease from Chicago. Would something more outside the box be possible such as would Seattle entertain an idea of moving one of Woo or Bryce Miller for lineup help since they already have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby and Ray returning next year along with whichever of Woo or Miller they didn't move. What about Miami with Edward Cabrera since they have Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez with Meyer and Eder working their way back - would they move one of those two if NOT Cabreara. I'd be really interested in that type of thing.




Basically the one thing I don't want this trade deadline is "middling", or banking on IL returns, which are the terms I'll use instead of indecision, because I think Bloom made a conscious decision last season to not sell (and I think it was the wrong one) and I don't want us to do the same thing again. Especially since I think it's highly likely we're going to be in a similar scenario - within lets say 2 or 3 games of a playoff spot, but not in a playoff spot - leading up to August.

If the Sox are within a few games of the playoffs and don't want to sell, then make some actual moves to buy like they did in 2021. It doesn't have to be stupid, and I'm not saying to mortgage the future in that scenario, but maybe move pieces like BJordan and ONE of Bleis or Anthony for a long term rotation piece or a higher minors SP prospect if possible. Or move Hamilton and one of Walter or Mata if you can get a legitimate 2b/SS option. See if someone would give you a usable BP arm for Dalbec. Assuming we're somewhat close - and assuming it's because of the continued development of the kids in the pitching staff getting us there, THIS is the path I'd prefer them to take. However...

If the Sox are within 2/3 games of the playoffs, and don't want to actively buy, then I think they should absolutely try to sell pieces that aren't under contract for next year - such as Duvall, Paxton and Turner, and I'd try to move Martin as well (understanding he is under control). I'd still try and move Sale but I don't think you'll get anything for him.

If they're more than 3 games out, sell everything that isn't part of the 2025-2030 core. Obviously the 5 above, but I'd see if you can get anyone to give you anything for Hernandez, and if you can't, DFA him and let literally anyone here beyond the 2024 season take his reps. Same thing for Arroyo. Try to extend Verdugo first (I can't make this clear enough) and if you can't, actively try to move him as well. Actively try and move any bullpen piece (if we have a "this year's Schrieber" try to move them).



Just don't make your strategy "we're going to ADD by having guys come back from the IL", choose to actively buy or actively sell. Don't middle it (like last year). Don't do nothing.

 

[RS2004foreever]

"Trade Casas and keep Dalbec? I think you've got that reversed "
Dalbec isn't going to get you much of a return. If you want a good team-controlled starting pitcher, the cost will be at least Casas. But this is the only way I would think of trading him
Dalbec might get you a bullpen piece.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Interesting ideas on the OP.

One of the things that I find really interesting to discuss and try to ascertain is the organizational philosophy at present in terms of prospect redundancy. An obvious strength of Dombrowski was identifying which prospects to hold and which to move, and even though he didn't do a ton to focus on building the farm (as has been gone over time and again) he did an excellent job of knowing which guys to hold on to and which to move. I can't think of a single prospect he moved that came back to bite him, and the guys he held are now looking like significant pieces of the future.

To be clear, Bloom gets credit as well for not moving guys like Bello, Casas, Houck, etc, but he really hasn't sent any prospects out the door in major moves either. I don't think there is enough data to judge on if evaluation of prospects is a strength or a weakness, and honestly, we don't know what his general philosophy on prospect moves, especially prospect redundancy, is going to look like.


All I mean is that, realistically, there is not enough room in Boston for all of Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, Valdez, Abreu and Hamilton, all of whom seem to play "up the middle", to encompass middle infield and CF as positions and all of whom Sox prospects project coming up sometime between now and the end of 2024. Those things sort themselves out, either in terms of development or lack thereof or trades, of course.

But the question I have would be is Bloom planning to hold them all to hedge his bets or is he planning to take more of the DDski route and move "redundancy" for MLB help. Both are defensible strategies and logical options, but clearly he can't choose both courses, and I don't think we've seen enough to know what he'd aim for. I tend to think it'd be more of the former and trying to thread the needle like we did in 2021, but I certainly don't know for sure and I don't know if anyone has an educated read on that.


I agree with the idea that I'd like to find another starter to go with the kids, that has multiple years of control (or would be a reasonable extension candidate) OR even a prospect for prospect swap - allowing how rare those often can be. The single best (and most important) thing about this year is the development of Bello (4.00 fip); Whitlock (4.04) and Houck (4.22) into what look like legitimate core pieces of the rotation for the 2025-2030 Red Sox. Paxton has provided a heck of a lot more than i expected he would (but I'm not exactly prepared to bet on him being productive in his age 36, 37 and 38 seasons, so to speak. Sale has provided exactly what I thought he'd provide. Crawford has provided more than I'd have thought as a starter and certainly has been good enough to say there is no reason to move him from the starters role (3.19fip).

Bieber or Burnes are obviously the "dream" scenario, but probably not realistic. However would someone like Woodruff or Peralta be available from the Brewers. Maybe Cease from Chicago. Would something more outside the box be possible such as would Seattle entertain an idea of moving one of Woo or Bryce Miller for lineup help since they already have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby and Ray returning next year along with whichever of Woo or Miller they didn't move. What about Miami with Edward Cabrera since they have Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez with Meyer and Eder working their way back - would they move one of those two if NOT Cabreara. I'd be really interested in that type of thing.




Basically the one thing I don't want this trade deadline is "middling", or banking on IL returns, which are the terms I'll use instead of indecision, because I think Bloom made a conscious decision last season to not sell (and I think it was the wrong one) and I don't want us to do the same thing again. Especially since I think it's highly likely we're going to be in a similar scenario - within lets say 2 or 3 games of a playoff spot, but not in a playoff spot - leading up to August.

If the Sox are within a few games of the playoffs and don't want to sell, then make some actual moves to buy like they did in 2021. It doesn't have to be stupid, and I'm not saying to mortgage the future in that scenario, but maybe move pieces like BJordan and ONE of Bleis or Anthony for a long term rotation piece or a higher minors SP prospect if possible. Or move Hamilton and one of Walter or Mata if you can get a legitimate 2b/SS option. See if someone would give you a usable BP arm for Dalbec. Assuming we're somewhat close - and assuming it's because of the continued development of the kids in the pitching staff getting us there, THIS is the path I'd prefer them to take. However...

If the Sox are within 2/3 games of the playoffs, and don't want to actively buy, then I think they should absolutely try to sell pieces that aren't under contract for next year - such as Duvall, Paxton and Turner, and I'd try to move Martin as well (understanding he is under control). I'd still try and move Sale but I don't think you'll get anything for him.

If they're more than 3 games out, sell everything that isn't part of the 2025-2030 core. Obviously the 5 above, but I'd see if you can get anyone to give you anything for Hernandez, and if you can't, DFA him and let literally anyone here beyond the 2024 season take his reps. Same thing for Arroyo. Try to extend Verdugo first (I can't make this clear enough) and if you can't, actively try to move him as well. Actively try and move any bullpen piece (if we have a "this year's Schrieber" try to move them).



Just don't make your strategy "we're going to ADD by having guys come back from the IL", choose to actively buy or actively sell. Don't middle it (like last year). Don't do nothing.

I would add Meidroth to that group. It's an abundance of talent that needs to be utilized to address a weakness and I suspect Yorke would be the biggest piece for other teams to look at and I suspect Meidroth may end up being the better player.

I mentioned upthread that two guys could be had as a rental... Montgomery and Giolito so wouldn't cost a major chip, but I also don't think either profiles as a top tier starter so could probably be extended for 3 years since both are still relatively young. I'd be pretty confident with pairing either of those two with Bello/Whitlock and Paxton as a playoff rotation if Sale doesn't return. I'd also like to add a reliable mid-level starter for the future (I don't think bringing Paxton back makes sense considering age and injury history) like one of those two while some of the younger guys down in single A mature up the ranks.

 

[YTF]

They have Wong under team control for five more years and McGuire for two. I'm not sure they need something long term in a "classic backup" mold, and if they do, I think Caleb Hamilton can be that guy. He has options so he can be sent back to Worcester without waivers. He's not much of a hitter, but he's very good defensively. That's perfectly adequate if he's only playing every 4-5 days until McGuire is back.

My thought was acquiring a young, serviceable player with some potential who might have had a taste of the big leagues that could be further developed. The next guy in waiting if you will for an occasion such as this. They were fortunate in that they could finagle Hamilton onto the 40 by moving Chang to the 60 day IL, which might not always be an option. I really had no idea as to what to expect from Hamillton, very good defensively works for a classic backup. I know that they have Wong longer term and McGuire for a couple years, if Hamiton seems good enough to eventually elevate to the 40 man he may well fill the bill.

 

[grimshaw]

But the question I have would be is Bloom planning to hold them all to hedge his bets or is he planning to take more of the DDski route and move "redundancy" for MLB help. Both are defensible strategies and logical options, but clearly he can't choose both courses, and I don't think we've seen enough to know what he'd aim for. I tend to think it'd be more of the former and trying to thread the needle like we did in 2021, but I certainly don't know for sure and I don't know if anyone has an educated read on that.


I agree with the idea that I'd like to find another starter to go with the kids, that has multiple years of control (or would be a reasonable extension candidate) OR even a prospect for prospect swap - allowing how rare those often can be. The single best (and most important) thing about this year is the development of Bello (4.00 fip); Whitlock (4.04) and Houck (4.22) into what look like legitimate core pieces of the rotation for the 2025-2030 Red Sox. Paxton has provided a heck of a lot more than i expected he would (but I'm not exactly prepared to bet on him being productive in his age 36, 37 and 38 seasons, so to speak. Sale has provided exactly what I thought he'd provide. Crawford has provided more than I'd have thought as a starter and certainly has been good enough to say there is no reason to move him from the starters role (3.19fip).

Bieber or Burnes are obviously the "dream" scenario, but probably not realistic. However would someone like Woodruff or Peralta be available from the Brewers. Maybe Cease from Chicago. Would something more outside the box be possible such as would Seattle entertain an idea of moving one of Woo or Bryce Miller for lineup help since they already have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby and Ray returning next year along with whichever of Woo or Miller they didn't move. What about Miami with Edward Cabrera since they have Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez with Meyer and Eder working their way back - would they move one of those two if NOT Cabreara. I'd be really interested in that type of thing.




Basically the one thing I don't want this trade deadline is "middling", or banking on IL returns, which are the terms I'll use instead of indecision, because I think Bloom made a conscious decision last season to not sell (and I think it was the wrong one) and I don't want us to do the same thing again. Especially since I think it's highly likely we're going to be in a similar scenario - within lets say 2 or 3 games of a playoff spot, but not in a playoff spot - leading up to August.

If the Sox are within a few games of the playoffs and don't want to sell, then make some actual moves to buy like they did in 2021. It doesn't have to be stupid, and I'm not saying to mortgage the future in that scenario, but maybe move pieces like BJordan and ONE of Bleis or Anthony for a long term rotation piece or a higher minors SP prospect if possible. Or move Hamilton and one of Walter or Mata if you can get a legitimate 2b/SS option. See if someone would give you a usable BP arm for Dalbec. Assuming we're somewhat close - and assuming it's because of the continued development of the kids in the pitching staff getting us there, THIS is the path I'd prefer them to take. However...

If the Sox are within 2/3 games of the playoffs, and don't want to actively buy, then I think they should absolutely try to sell pieces that aren't under contract for next year - such as Duvall, Paxton and Turner, and I'd try to move Martin as well (understanding he is under control). I'd still try and move Sale but I don't think you'll get anything for him.

If they're more than 3 games out, sell everything that isn't part of the 2025-2030 core. Obviously the 5 above, but I'd see if you can get anyone to give you anything for Hernandez, and if you can't, DFA him and let literally anyone here beyond the 2024 season take his reps. Same thing for Arroyo. Try to extend Verdugo first (I can't make this clear enough) and if you can't, actively try to move him as well. Actively try and move any bullpen piece (if we have a "this year's Schrieber" try to move them).



Just don't make your strategy "we're going to ADD by having guys come back from the IL", choose to actively buy or actively sell. Don't middle it (like last year). Don't do nothing.

I find all of these conversations fascinating as well. If the Sox were in, say the Orioles position with young major league talent already performing very well, and a piece or two away from serious contention, then I'd absolutely be going for Burnes and Bieber.

The Sox aren't close to this position, though their financial oomph can speed things up with the right free agent signings (see 2021). They should not be going for what are going to set the farm back from sustaining the pipeline. Corbin Burnes isn't going to solve their feebleness against the Rays. They just aren't there yet. This is aside from the fact that the price is going to be ridiculous and with expanded playoffs all teams are dealing with a permanent sellers market.

The ridiculous free agent contracts are IMO partly due to the fact that trades are so difficult to pull off with teams now capable of being in contention for playoff spots in no time. Developing farm systems has never been more important. They have to choose right on what will not come back to burn them, or use their muscle to buy prospects while taking on questionable contracts.

I think it would be criminal not to sell James Paxton even if it were a playoff coin flip to make the playoffs, though I'm sure backlash from the fanbase will win out.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I would add Meidroth to that group. It's an abundance of talent that needs to be utilized to address a weakness and I suspect Yorke would be the biggest piece for other teams to look at and I suspect Meidroth may end up being the better player.

I mentioned upthread that two guys could be had as a rental... Montgomery and Giolito so wouldn't cost a major chip, but I also don't think either profiles as a top tier starter so could probably be extended for 3 years since both are still relatively young. I'd be pretty confident with pairing either of those two with Bello/Whitlock and Paxton as a playoff rotation if Sale doesn't return. I'd also like to add a reliable mid-level starter for the future (I don't think bringing Paxton back makes sense considering age and injury history) like one of those two while some of the younger guys down in single A mature up the ranks.

For sure on Meidroth. I'd say the same on Paulino, truth be told, but I was just trying to stick to the guys projected (at least on SP) to be up this year or next for the example.

Great calls on Giolito and Montgomery, I admit I was pretty much only looking at guys with multiple years of control, but I'd be very on board with either. I might actually lean toward Montgomery at this point as he's shown an ability to be an above average pitcher in the AL East, but I'd like either of those guys as part of the rotation for the next several seasons if it can be done, for the reasons you site.

I fully admit that I'll take this "trade" but while Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Crawford have all taken great positive steps forward this year, there doesn't seem to be much on the farm that is inspiring for pitchers, at least in the upper minors. Of course it's too early to write any of them off, but I also don't think penciling in any of Drohan, Mata, Walter or Murphy is wise. Someone like Montgomery (I think Giolito will probably end up getting more money than we realize - though I'd like to have him) would really help in that 3/4 year window, like you suggest.

@grimshaw I think that, fwiw, the "average" fan, whether they should be or not and I don't want to have that discussion, has tuned out from the team enough that if the team is about where it is now (last place in the division, 2.5 games out of the final WC spot with two teams ahead of them) is even going to be paying attention to if the team trades James Paxton or not. To be clear, I'm not saying the average SoSH member, all of us whom will be following the team regardless, but the general Boston sports fan won't care if we deal Paxton, Duvall, etc or not, just as they didn't care when we signed them.

Though I assuredly agree with - I think - your point about Paxton, etc. If they're not in a position where they choose to make some moves - even with prospect redundancy - to actively buy close to the deadline, Paxton, Duvall, Turner and Hernandez should be gone for literally anything they can get. Even if what they "get" is just more of an opportunity to see what anyone in the Worcester rotation can do while letting Duran and someone else (I don't care if it's Valdez, Rafaela, Yorke, Meidroth, Abreu or someone else) get every day reps at the big league level to see if they're going to get a jump on building the 2025-2030 core.

 

[JM3]

I don't have much interest in doing most of these things.

No interest in Bieber. He seems to be in the process of slowly falling off a cliff. Burnes might be interesting, though.

Don't have a lot of interest in clearing up the potential future logjam right now, though.

 

[nvalvo]

Weirdly, I think a lot hinges on the evaluation of Dalbec. One of the team's biggest needs is RH power, and they've got this guy in AAA hitting .296/.414/.638. He has a 33% K rate, but still: he's not just hitting, he's in the top handful of hitters in the league. His previous stints at AAA saw .850ish OPSes.

So the team needs to nail this evaluation. Has anything changed that means Dalbec could deliver at the big league level? Because, if so, there's definitely a role for him. All of this follows from that evaluation: if we think he's the same guy, we trade him to the A's for a reliever or whatever. But IF AND ONLY IF the hitting people think this is a new Dalbec who can be a legit offensive threat now, there are some very interesting options that appear.

We could, for example, trade Duvall, most likely to the Reds. The stats haven't loved Duvall in CF (although the samples are tiny), and the offensive numbers have been in free fall since his return, although that may turn around in time. The surging Reds are both very much in the mix in the NL central and have an all-LHH outfield. He'd be an incredible fit there, and that is of course where he blossomed into a power threat. The Reds have an astonishingly deep farm, and there are all sorts of guys in the back half of their top-30 who are real prospects. Duvall is only on a one-year deal, and Duran seems likely to outplay him the rest of the way, as well as being the heir apparent in CF, in the near term. This could be another version of the Vazquez trade.

Then you give CF to Duran, Refsnyder, and... Ceddanne Rafaela, who has a .937 OPS in June after a quiet start. I would aim to move on from Kiké — I doubt he fetches a ton in trade, but we'd be looking for a contender with a defensive need in CF (Pirates, Padres, Rangers...) — and get Rafaela up to play Kiké's MI/CF role.

If we are in contention, you add Dalbec to the IF/DH/PH mix. It really helps if he can actually play 2B, and I admit I don't know the answer to that. (If we're not in contention, you trade Turner to a contender and give Dalbec most of the DH PAs.)

Story's return from the IL should fill the team's other biggest position player needs.

Then we want to add a starting pitcher: I try to trade Nicks Yorke and Pivetta to Chicago for Lucas Giolito, who is a pending FA. Nick Yorke is the most Chicago White Sox who ever Chicago White Soxed. I think that's close in value, as does BTV — but trade estimation is always an inexact science. My reasoning is that we have some pretty good SP talent rehabbing in Sale and Houck, but I don't think there will be time to get those guys all the way stretched out. So we should bring them back in the pen as multi-inning relievers, and add an SP. Giolito's good-but-not-great and should be available: sub-3 BB/9, 9+ K/9. The only blemish is a few too many HR, and, well, New Comiskey has a lot to do with that. Obviously, we'd love Cease, but that would involve Yorke and Bleis, and I don't see the upgrade being worth it.

So this leaves us, in the optimistic scenario, with the following roster by mid-August:

SP
Paxton
Bello
Giolito
Whitlock
Crawford

RP
Jansen R
Martin R
Winckowski R
Sale L
Houck R
Walter L
Bernardino L
Murphy L

OF
Verdugo L
Yoshida L
Duran L
Refsnyder R

IF/OF
Rafaela R

IF
Devers L
Story R
Arroyo R
Casas L
Dalbec R
Turner R

C
Wong R
McGuire L (if he's back...)

vs. RHP | CF Duran L, SS Story R, LF Yoshida L, DH Turner R, 3B Devers L, RF Verdugo L, 1B Casas L, 2B Arroyo R, C McGuire L | Bench of Dalbec, Rafaela, Wong, and Refsnyder.

vs. LHP | SS Story R, LF Refsnyder R DH Yoshida L, 1B Turner R, 3B Devers L, RF Verdugo L, 2B Dalbec R, C Wong R, CF Rafaela R | Bench of Casas, Arroyo, McGuire and Duran.

Or something like that. Lots of options to PH with a slugger or PR with a fast guy, and then patch up the late-inning defense with Rafaela.

 

[JM3]

I'm fine with most of that...but Giolito seems like a large regression candidate too & and seems to be running good so far this year without great underlying stuff...& I am a Yorke STAN & don't really have any interest in doing that.

I'm kind of intrigued by the idea of getting Burnes for some of our expiring stuff (Duvall? Paxton? Kiké? Turner?), paying to subsidize the outgoing players while staying under the tax, & tossing in some truly redundant prospects of the Kavadas/Lugo ilk (I would also be willing to listen on certain other higher end prospects if necessary). Not sure if the Brewers would do it but it would help them this year, provide them with some prospects, & afaik Burnes still doesn't like them & I expect a trade bump if he goes elsewhere.

Of course, if there are other teams that might value our expiring guys more, looping teams in like the Reds/Duvall example could be fun.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Weirdly, I think a lot hinges on the evaluation of Dalbec. One of the team's biggest needs is RH power, and they've got this guy in AAA hitting .296/.414/.638. He has a 33% K rate, but still: he's not just hitting, he's in the top handful of hitters in the league. His previous stints at AAA saw .850ish OPSes.

So the team needs to nail this evaluation. Has anything changed that means Dalbec could deliver at the big league level? Because, if so, there's definitely a role for him. All of this follows from that evaluation: if we think he's the same guy, we trade him to the A's for a reliever or whatever. But IF AND ONLY IF the hitting people think this is a new Dalbec who can be a legit offensive threat now, there are some very interesting options that appear.

The K rate for Dalbec is so brutal I'm not sure we can expect much beyond maybe what he did in 2021. I think he would be an easier option if he wasn't a bad defender. There's nothing to fall back on if he comes up and whiffs at a 35-40% rate in the majors which is a very real possibility given his AAA K rate....at least a plus defender would give you a little more cushion to allow him a longer leash.

There's a possibility he turns into a Miguel Sano type or Kyle Schwarber, but how much leash do you give him to find out if you are in contention?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I'm fine with most of that...but Giolito seems like a large regression candidate too & and seems to be running good so far this year without great underlying stuff...& I am a Yorke STAN & don't really have any interest in doing that.

I'm kind of intrigued by the idea of getting Burnes for some of our expiring stuff (Duvall? Paxton? Kiké? Turner?), paying to subsidize the outgoing players while staying under the tax, & tossing in some truly redundant prospects of the Kavadas/Lugo ilk (I would also be willing to listen on certain other higher end prospects if necessary). Not sure if the Brewers would do it but it would help them this year, provide them with some prospects, & afaik Burnes still doesn't like them & I expect a trade bump if he goes elsewhere.

Of course, if there are other teams that might value our expiring guys more, looping teams in like the Reds/Duvall example could be fun.

If the Brewers GM even picked up the phone for an offer starting with that flotsam and jetsam and not starting with multiple of Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela and Yorke, all two dozen Brewers fans should storm Miller Park with pitchforks and cheese curds.


Though FWIW, I think the decision to hold all the prospects to hedge and to see which ones pan out is a totally defensible strategy. Honestly, I think this is probably the most likely scenario because I think the team is going to be "out" of playoff position in August - though admittedly within a handful of games of a playoff spot. I'd just hope that if this is the choice, that the team clears the decks of anything not here in 2025 and beyond and starts giving those guys reps in the majors.

 

[Archer1979]

I'm going with the pessimistic side as I think that the Sox are multiple impact players away from seriously making a dent in the playoffs and the price tag would pretty much empty out the farm.

Paxton, Turner, Kluber, Jansen, pretty much anyone but Devers who is not arb-eligible... all on the trading block. Dalbec isn't going to be on anyone's target list, so he's pretty much one of those sweeteners if someone wants him. The asking price should be pitching prospects... AA or AAA starters that could be ready in a year or two. You might get something like that back with Paxton, Turner, or maybe Jansen. Kluber is going to be one of those that could actually mute the return so he might rate a bucket of balls or cash back.

 

[chrisfont9]

Good post, was thinking it was time to start a trade deadline thread. The What does 2023 look like? mega-thread is nearing its one-year anniversary. SOSH should publish it, maybe pitch it as a Netflix series.

I'll sign a release for this Netflix series right now, as long as they get Roberto Begnini to read my posts.

 

[chrisfont9]

The K rate for Dalbec is so brutal I'm not sure we can expect much beyond maybe what he did in 2021. I think he would be an easier option if he wasn't a bad defender. There's nothing to fall back on if he comes up and whiffs at a 35-40% rate in the majors which is a very real possibility given his AAA K rate....at least a plus defender would give you a little more cushion to allow him a longer leash.

There's a possibility he turns into a Miguel Sano type or Kyle Schwarber, but how much leash do you give him to find out if you are in contention?

All I can see for sure is a big spike in walks. Can people who know such things detect an improved ability to control an at-bat that could translate? Pessimistic, but the numbers are such that you'd want to turn that rock over before just dismissing him.

 

[JM3]

If the Brewers GM even picked up the phone for an offer starting with that flotsam and jetsam and not starting with multiple of Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela and Yorke, all two dozen Brewers fans should storm Miller Park with pitchforks and cheese curds.


Though FWIW, I think the decision to hold all the prospects to hedge and to see which ones pan out is a totally defensible strategy. Honestly, I think this is probably the most likely scenario because I think the team is going to be "out" of playoff position in August - though admittedly within a handful of games of a playoff spot. I'd just hope that if this is the choice, that the team clears the decks of anything not here in 2025 and beyond and starts giving those guys reps in the majors.

Trading 2 of those 4 for a year & a bit of Burnes & his 4.24 FIP would be malpractice.

Paxton has been significantly better than Burnes so far this year & the Brewers would have a chance to save $, get better this year (they are right outside the WC right now i believe), & add some pretty solid, albeit not elite prospects.

It really only helps the Red Sox if they lock Burnes up right away at hopefully a slight discount because he's been non-elite this year. But I understand BTV puts a huge # on him for some reason.

But mostly I'm content to just get value where they can around the edges & if they need to try to thread the needle again, so be it. The only real mistakes they could make is to go over the threshold or give away guys who turn into future stars.

I think Duvall should almost certainly be moved. Paxton I'd probably try to extend at reasonable rate, & if not try to trade or just be content to offer a QO if he keeps pitching like this.

Kiké can be moved if there is any market, but if there's not & they can move Duvall, he's fine to keep around.

I would trade Jansen if anyone really wants him. I would trade Pivetta if anyone kinda wants him. I would trade Kluber if anyone would give us the just flyeriest flyer for a free Kluber.

Trading Turner is fine if there is a market out there.

& if they do go the selling route, they should pay as much of these salaries as possible to maximize the prospect return while staying under the threshold.

 

[YTF]

Weirdly, I think a lot hinges on the evaluation of Dalbec. One of the team's biggest needs is RH power, and they've got this guy in AAA hitting .296/.414/.638. He has a 33% K rate, but still: he's not just hitting, he's in the top handful of hitters in the league. His previous stints at AAA saw .850ish OPSes.

So the team needs to nail this evaluation. Has anything changed that means Dalbec could deliver at the big league level? Because, if so, there's definitely a role for him. All of this follows from that evaluation: if we think he's the same guy, we trade him to the A's for a reliever or whatever. But IF AND ONLY IF the hitting people think this is a new Dalbec who can be a legit offensive threat now, there are some very interesting options that appear.

We could, for example, trade Duvall, most likely to the Reds. The stats haven't loved Duvall in CF (although the samples are tiny), and the offensive numbers have been in free fall since his return, although that may turn around in time. The surging Reds are both very much in the mix in the NL central and have an all-LHH outfield. He'd be an incredible fit there, and that is of course where he blossomed into a power threat. The Reds have an astonishingly deep farm, and there are all sorts of guys in the back half of their top-30 who are real prospects. Duvall is only on a one-year deal, and Duran seems likely to outplay him the rest of the way, as well as being the heir apparent in CF, in the near term. This could be another version of the Vazquez trade.

Then you give CF to Duran, Refsnyder, and... Ceddanne Rafaela, who has a .937 OPS in June after a quiet start. I would aim to move on from Kiké — I doubt he fetches a ton in trade, but we'd be looking for a contender with a defensive need in CF (Pirates, Padres, Rangers...) — and get Rafaela up to play Kiké's MI/CF role.

If we are in contention, you add Dalbec to the IF/DH/PH mix. It really helps if he can actually play 2B, and I admit I don't know the answer to that. (If we're not in contention, you trade Turner to a contender and give Dalbec most of the DH PAs.)

Story's return from the IL should fill the team's other biggest position player needs.

Then we want to add a starting pitcher: I try to trade Nicks Yorke and Pivetta to Chicago for Lucas Giolito, who is a pending FA. Nick Yorke is the most Chicago White Sox who ever Chicago White Soxed. I think that's close in value, as does BTV — but trade estimation is always an inexact science. My reasoning is that we have some pretty good SP talent rehabbing in Sale and Houck, but I don't think there will be time to get those guys all the way stretched out. So we should bring them back in the pen as multi-inning relievers, and add an SP. Giolito's good-but-not-great and should be available: sub-3 BB/9, 9+ K/9. The only blemish is a few too many HR, and, well, New Comiskey has a lot to do with that. Obviously, we'd love Cease, but that would involve Yorke and Bleis, and I don't see the upgrade being worth it.

So this leaves us, in the optimistic scenario, with the following roster by mid-August:

SP
Paxton
Bello
Giolito
Whitlock
Crawford

RP
Jansen R
Martin R
Winckowski R
Sale L
Houck R
Walter L
Bernardino L
Murphy L

OF
Verdugo L
Yoshida L
Duran L
Refsnyder R

IF/OF
Rafaela R

IF
Devers L
Story R
Arroyo R
Casas L
Dalbec R
Turner R

C
Wong R
McGuire L (if he's back...)

vs. RHP | CF Duran L, SS Story R, LF Yoshida L, DH Turner R, 3B Devers L, RF Verdugo L, 1B Casas L, 2B Arroyo R, C McGuire L | Bench of Dalbec, Rafaela, Wong, and Refsnyder.

vs. LHP | SS Story R, LF Refsnyder R DH Yoshida L, 1B Turner R, 3B Devers L, RF Verdugo L, 2B Dalbec R, C Wong R, CF Rafaela R | Bench of Casas, Arroyo, McGuire and Duran.

Or something like that. Lots of options to PH with a slugger or PR with a fast guy, and then patch up the late-inning defense with Rafaela.

So with what appears to be a movement towards giving playing time to young players should there be an attraction to trading Yorke for Giolito, who as you noted is a pending FA?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Trading 2 of those 4 for a year & a bit of Burnes & his 4.24 FIP would be malpractice.

Paxton has been significantly better than Burnes so far this year & the Brewers would have a chance to save $, get better this year (they are right outside the WC right now i believe), & add some pretty solid, albeit not elite prospects.

It really only helps the Red Sox if they lock Burnes up right away at hopefully a slight discount because he's been non-elite this year. But I understand BTV puts a huge # on him for some reason.

But mostly I'm content to just get value where they can around the edges & if they need to try to thread the needle again, so be it. The only real mistakes they could make is to go over the threshold or give away guys who turn into future stars.

I think Duvall should almost certainly be moved. Paxton I'd probably try to extend at reasonable rate, & if not try to trade or just be content to offer a QO if he keeps pitching like this.

Kiké can be moved if there is any market, but if there's not & they can move Duvall, he's fine to keep around.

I would trade Jansen if anyone really wants him. I would trade Pivetta if anyone kinda wants him. I would trade Kluber if anyone would give us the just flyeriest flyer for a free Kluber.

Trading Turner is fine if there is a market out there.

& if they do go the selling route, they should pay as much of these salaries as possible to maximize the prospect return while staying under the threshold.

To be clear, I'm not saying the Sox should do that; I said earlier that both Bieber and Burnes were not realistic for the Red Sox.

Specifically from the perspective of the Brewers, there is no way they should even take Bloom's phone call if he's not offering those type of players - which he shouldn't because of where the team is. Weighting the past 7 starts of Paxton at age 34 vs the last 4 years of Paxton at age 28 would be really short sighted.

Even more so when (even this year) Burnes has better pitch data than Paxton on 8 of 14 data points.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corbin-burnes-669203?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/james-paxton-572020?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[Yaz4Ever]

IMO the next 100+ million contract the sox give to a (non sox FA) will be a hitter and not a pitcher. Sox have gotten burnered on many large contracts for pitchers in the past. Which makes the Ohtani situation very unique.

I was telling someone at work the other day that there are a lot of teams that would be happy to sign him for $30 million as a pitcher and also plenty of teams willing to sign him for $30 million a year as a hitter. Considering what this guy can do, what kind of record breaking deal is he going to be offered?

 

[JM3]

To be clear, I'm not saying the Sox should do that; I said earlier that both Bieber and Burnes were not realistic for the Red Sox.

I would be quite upset if they acquired Bieber. Dude is falling off a cliff.

Specifically from the perspective of the Brewers, there is no way they should even take Bloom's phone call if he's not offering those type of players - which he shouldn't because of where the team is.

Brewers should probably trade Burnes for the best offer they can get - either at the deadline or in the off season. We shall see what that is. Agree it probably shouldn't be the Sox.

Weighting the past 7 starts of Paxton at age 34 vs the last 4 years of Paxton at age 28 would be really short sighted.

There are 3 months left in the season. That's a short amount of time.

Even more so when (even this year) Burnes has better pitch data than Paxton on 8 of 14 data points.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corbin-burnes-669203?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/james-paxton-572020?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

That is... not a particularly useful way to evaluate how a pitcher has been pitching.

 

[chrisfont9]

Welp, Dalbec was recalled just now. Reyes on 10-day IL.
Murphy up too, and Scott and Walter sent down.

We shall see if Dalbec is getting one more audition.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Burnes is under control for next season as well, FWIW. He is arbitration eligible and not a free agent until before the 2025 season.

My apologies, I thought that pitch data / statcast data was pretty well accepted as useful data points and the closest we have to predictive numbers. Won't use it again on the main board.

I'll stop now and let you have the last word if you want it though because there is no chance the Sox are acquiring Corbin Burnes in the next several months.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Welp, Dalbec was recalled just now. Reyes on 10-day IL.
Murphy up too, and Scott and Walter sent down.

We shall see if Dalbec is getting one more audition.

This doesn't feel like Dalbec getting an audition. This feels like they need a warm RHH body on the bench. It also feels like a spot that if they didn't have the roster restriction that limits them to 13 pitchers, they'd have a 14th pitcher up instead (maybe keep Walter up and only recall Murphy).

 

[jon abbey]

I was telling someone at work the other day that there are a lot of teams that would be happy to sign him for $30 million as a pitcher and also plenty of teams willing to sign him for $30 million a year as a hitter. Considering what this guy can do, what kind of record breaking deal is he going to be offered?

12/720

 

[Yaz4Ever]

12/720

I had floated 10/600 before, so the AAV is right. Gulp. I truly hope he doesn’t get hurt because I enjoy him AND it would result in a team losing everything.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Risk is too big. He’s been injured in the past…. There’s a god chance he could turn into a DH only/relief pitcher once a week at most.
I’m going 10/ $500