But, they're not. They're on a pace to win 86 games. .530 WP
Per their pythag, they'd be on a pace to win 87 games. .540 WP
(FWIW, Tampa got into the WC last year with 86 wins.)
Most of us actually predicted something in the 85-89 range.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-predict-the-2023-red-sox-season.38943/
Their "true talent level" is hard to opine about with any kind of accuracy. They suffered through inconsistent play early on, then were hit with a slew of SP injuries/bad luck, esp. regarding the rotation and middle infield. (If Houck hadn't been hit with that comebacker, we'd probably think very differently about the team's chances. We'd also more likely be on a 90 game win pace.) Or not - because nobody predicted Duran, and Yoshida has been best-of-projection thusfar.
***
As of today, they have 62 games left - approximately 12-13 times through the rotation. The course of those 62 games really will depend on who comes back and how healthy they are.
As mentioned above, Tampa got in last year with 86 wins (or a .531 WP). Now those 86 wins came in the context of an unbalanced schedule that heavily favored division rivals: 76 divisional games, 60 non-divisional games, and 26 inter-league games.
This year, not only have the composition of the teams changed (as they will every year) but we're on a more balanced schedule where we play only 52 divisional games, 64 non-divisional games, and 46 inter-league games. So comparisons will always never quite be point-to-point. A lot of have-not teams with very low WPs will have total wins shift to the "have" teams. . .but again, there's the more balanced schedule, so those wins won't always stay in the AL, let alone the division.
However, for whatever it's worth, last year the AL WC standings went like this:
[TH]Rk[/TH]
[TH]Tm[/TH]
[TH]W[/TH]
[TH]L[/TH]
[TH]W-L%[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH]1[/TH]
Houston Astros |
106 |
56 |
.654 |
[TH]2[/TH]
New York Yankees |
99 |
63 |
.611 |
[TH]3[/TH]
Cleveland Guardians |
92 |
70 |
.568 |
[TH]4[/TH]
Toronto Blue Jays |
92 |
70 |
.568 |
[TH]5[/TH]
Seattle Mariners |
90 |
72 |
.556 |
[TH]6[/TH]
Tampa Bay Rays |
86 |
76 |
.531 |
[TH]7[/TH]
Baltimore Orioles |
83 |
79 |
.512 |
[TH]8[/TH]
Chicago White Sox |
81 |
81 |
.500 |
[TH]9[/TH]
Minnesota Twins |
78 |
84 |
.481 |
[TH]10[/TH]
Boston Red Sox |
78 |
84 |
.481 |
[TH]11[/TH]
Los Angeles Angels |
73 |
89 |
.451 |
[TH]12[/TH]
Texas Rangers |
68 |
94 |
.420 |
[TH]13[/TH]
Detroit Tigers |
66 |
96 |
.407 |
[TH]14[/TH]
Kansas City Royals |
65 |
97 |
.401 |
[TH]15[/TH]
Oakland Athletics |
60 |
102 |
.370 |
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][/TH]
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[TH][/TH]
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[TH][/TH]
This year we're currently at:
1
Baltimore Orioles 61 38 .616
2
Tampa Bay Rays 61 42 .592
3
Texas Rangers 59 41 .590
4
Houston Astros 56 44 .560
5
Toronto Blue Jays 55 45 .550
6 Boston Red Sox 53 47 .530
7 New York Yankees 53 47 .530
8
Minnesota Twins 53 48 .525
9 Los Angeles Angels 51 49 .510
10 Seattle Mariners 50 49 .505
11 Cleveland Guardians 49 50 .495
12 Detroit Tigers 45 54 .455
13 Chicago White Sox 41 60 .406
14 Kansas City Royals 28 73 .277
15 Oakland Athletics 28 74 .275
So the way this is shaping up is that the AL central might take one of the 6 playoff slots with a very low WP (who knows) but that a .530 to .540 WP might be enough to get into the playoffs.
Right now it looks like the Jays, Yanks, and Red Sox might be in a scrum for that spot.
Anything can happen in 62 games, but strength of schedule does matter quite a bit here. It's possible that apart from the division leaders, the 3 WC teams will run up a higher WP than they did in the unbalanced schedule. Or maybe it will stay close to the 2022 WC results.
But even there, as far as direct games against WC rivals, the Sox play:
BAL - 7
TBR - 2
TEX - 6
HOU - 7
TOR - 6
NYY - 7
Their destiny is till very much theirs to write.