It's the halfway mark. Where we at?

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Yeah, I like Burnes, but I'm not remotely interested in something like that for 14 months of control. I could do Yorke+ others In less excited about, but not moving Bleis there. & the Brewers probably aren't in full on sell mode.

Ranger Suarez: I don't see anything in particular about his profile that I love. His stuff seems pretty fringy with the exception of his curveball. Plus, are they selling?

Freddy is interesting as his home run rate seems utterly unsustainably high. But he's another guy who's control you'd have to fix. How low are we buying here, & again, are the Brewers selling?

Phillies are 7 games over .500 and 1/2 game back of the 3rd WC
Brewers are 7 games over .500, 1 game back of the division lead and also .5 back of the 3rd WC
Unless either implodes in the 2 weeks after the ASB, neither is selling.

If you want to shop, you're looking at Tigers, White Sox, Royals and A's in the AL, and Rockies, Nats, Cards in the NL. Maybe the Pirates and Cubs too? Mets? Padres?

 

[grimshaw]

I don't believe they would tell Reyes he would be up with the team if they were just going to DFA him. I'd keep Reyes over either of the other two. There are zero fielding competent shortstops out there on the market or in the Sox minors aside from him and Chang.

The impression I got from the recent Sean McAdam's podcast with Ken Rosenthal is that Hernandez (along with Verdugo) was kind of an odd cat in the clubhouse. Not a bad guy per se, but maybe not the presence we are imagining him to be. He didn't hint at any clubhouse dissatisfaction, but McAdam asked him what his sense was of the chemistry in general. Doesn't seem like a DFA should factor much into that portion of things.

 

[chawson]

They have lots of prospects who are real prospects who need to be on the 40 man roster next year - including some I consider basically untouchable like Luis Perales. It's not just chaff.

Maybe if you suggested some pitchers you wanted to trade for I'd be less opposed to it, but next year we have Bello/Sale/Whitlock/Houck/Crawford under contract & about $80m to spend, so I don't have much appetite to trade really high ceiling prospects who could provide an absolute ton of surplus value for people who aren't really, really good & project to continue to be really, really good.

They traded an A-ball pitcher who had elbow tendinitis at the time (Aldo Ramirez) who has barely pitched since the trade (7.2 innings of Rookie Ball in '21).

A comparable pitcher from their system now is probably like an Angel Bastardo, who is 40-man eligible this season, but shouldn't need protecting. Ramirez was 20 & I don't believe would have needed to be protected until maybe this year or next.

Man, I was actually slow-rolling a 40-man crunch post that landed on Bastardo as a possible version of this year's Aldo Ramirez when you posted this.

I think our situation is different than last deadline. The system has had a much better year, and we've got more guys closer to ready. I do think one of our rising arms gets moved in a deal, even if he's not Rule 5 eligible until next year (like Aldo Ramirez was — traded July 2021, needed protection Nov 2022).

Here's an incomplete list of the arms that could need protection

Dec, 2023 - Drohan, Perales, Wikelman Gonzalez, Blalock, Bastardo, Fernandez
Dec, 2024 - Dobbins, Guerrero, Monegro, Troye

That's just a lot of arms! And we've got a good bunch already under contract in 2024. Plus there's Walter and Murphy, who haven't quite matriculated into tangible roles. Surely not all of these guys are protected, but I'm curious who might be available from this pool. I think Drohan, Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez are locks and Fernandez is likely protected too. Blalock is pretty vulnerable to the Rule 5.

But yeah, Angel Bastardo. He’s ranked very highly by Fangraphs (#11 in our system) and not so much elsewhere (#40 on the SoxProspects list). He's increased his stock quite a bit this year, but hasn't been promoted.

I also have a feeling that Blaze Jordan is expendable. Doesn't need protecting until 2024, but I'm not sure where he fits for us long-term. It'd be one thing if he had a Justin Turner-caliber bat, but I don't see us using a roster spot for a RHH backup 1B or potential Casas platoon in 2025.

 

[JM3]

Man, I was actually slow-rolling a 40-man crunch post that landed on Bastardo as a possible version of this year's Aldo Ramirez when you posted this.

I think our situation is different than last deadline. The system has had a much better year, and we've got more guys closer to ready. I do think one of our rising arms gets moved in a deal, even if he's not Rule 5 eligible until next year (like Aldo Ramirez was — traded July 2021, needed protection Nov 2022).

Here's an incomplete list of the arms that could need protection

Dec, 2023 - Drohan, Perales, Wikelman Gonzalez, Blalock, Bastardo, Fernandez
Dec, 2024 - Dobbins, Guerrero, Monegro, Troye

That's just a lot of arms! And we've got a good bunch already under contract in 2024. Plus there's Walter and Murphy, who haven't quite matriculated into tangible roles. Surely not all of these guys are protected, but I'm curious who might be available from this pool. I think Drohan, Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez are locks and Fernandez is likely protected too. Blalock is pretty vulnerable to the Rule 5.

But yeah, Angel Bastardo. He’s ranked very highly by Fangraphs (#11 in our system) and not so much elsewhere (#40 on the SoxProspects list). He's increased his stock quite a bit this year, but hasn't been promoted.

I also have a feeling that Blaze Jordan is expendable. Doesn't need protecting until 2024, but I'm not sure where he fits for us long-term. It'd be one thing if he had a Justin Turner-caliber bat, but I don't see us using a roster spot for a RHH backup 1B or potential Casas platoon in 2025.

Didn't mean to steal your thunder. I have Bastardo 23 on my last Top 102 list.

Blaze (#12) is interesting because if he keeps going at his current trajectory he absolutely could fill that Justin Turner role of RH 1B/3B/DH guy. He was just promoted to Portland so we shall see if he continues to mash.

But agree that if someone views him as their every day 1B they might have a higher value for him in their organization than he would necessarily have in ours.

 

[Fishy1]

Didn't mean to steal your thunder. I have Bastardo 23 on my last Top 102 list.

Blaze (#12) is interesting because if he keeps going at his current trajectory he absolutely could fill that Justin Turner role of RH 1B/3B/DH guy. He was just promoted to Portland so we shall see if he continues to mash.

But agree that if someone views him as their every day 1B they might have a higher value for him in their organization than he would necessarily have in ours.

Yeah, at age 23, Justin Turner was in A+ ball, slugging .390 with a BB% under 8% (show that to anyone who says people can't change!). Prospect rankings be damned, Blaze looks better at A+ ball than Casas or Turner did. He hasn't got the same kind of discipline as Casas, but he makes better contact than Casas did at the same level - a K% under 15% with his kind of pop is very nice indeed, even at A+ ball. He's gotten a lot of hate for his plate discipline, but a walk rate around 9-10% of the last couple of years, coupled with an excellent hit tool, is as good to me as a guy who strikes out 25-30% of the time with a 15% walk rate.

Now he's 20 years old and hasn't faced AA pitching yet, so as you say, we'll see: he could totally flame out. But I like him and Roman Anthony as hitting prospects as much if not better than Hickey or Yorke in some respects (and dare I say Mayer) - those guys have plenty to dream on but have whiff rates that make me nervous when projecting them. If Yorke and Hickey K 30% of the time in the big leagues, they become less playable.

Now maybe Blaze's K rate balloons in AA or he can't hit shit and he totally flames out, but I think banishing him to backup-dom, given how he's hit so far and at a young age, would be premature.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

FWIW, you guys are likely totally right in regards to Peralta and Suarez (I always said that Burnes was a fantasy b/c Milwaukee would not- and should not - bother taking a call if the offer doesn't start with M and end with -arcelo Mayer). Though I admittedly fell into a bit of a trap of over-valuing the prospects and thinking pieces like Yorke, Bleis and Romero were highly regarded enough in the industry that they might entice teams to sell off mid-rotation starters with term and upside that otherwise would not (Peralta, for instance, the way Milwaukee did last year with Hader). They're probably more regarded as nice prospects, but not pieces worthy of "convincing" someone to sell, and I'll take my lap around the campus as punishment...


Thanks for posting the link @JM3, that was really well done. I had been looking through this thread and the deadline scenarios thread, and didn't see it - though admittedly on a glance of each. Seems like from your breakdown there are a minimum of 5 players that need to be moved, and probably more like 7 or 8 (assuming we'd like to have some wiggle room in the off-season).

As such, I really think "standing pat" is the only outcome of this trade deadline that I'd give an absolute F grade to. As constructed (and factoring in whom is ostensibly returning) I don't think the team is good enough for this year NOR that the farm is so high end for the future as to justify just playing it out and waiting for guys on the IL. The Sox are kind of a "middler" right now, which, in my opinion at least, is the worst possible place you can be as a big market team.

It's also why I'd like them to be aggressive and early in making a decision.

I'd still like to see Bloom be creative and for the Sox to go aggressively go after a top half of the rotation starter with term. Assuming that isn't realistic with out moving Mayer (and they're not moving Mayer), then...


At minimum, I'd want to see 5 to 7 of those names culled from your list and moved to be something that at least MIGHT be useful this year. I understand that won't be much, but I'd at least take the shot on guys whom have been good in the past for two months to see if you get lucky, and whom are bad enough at present that you could get them for stuff we wouldn't be able to keep anyway. Grab as many names like Mike Clevinger (ChW), Drew Smyly (ChC), Lance Lynn (ChW), Kenta Maeda (Min) and the like as possible. *If names culled from your list are good enough to get Giolito, Flaherty, Montgomery or similar, of course, get them, I just don't think that is realistic so I'm talking much lower end.

IF pitching is so scarce and it's such a seller's market that even guys like those older pitchers mentioned above would cost better prospects than guys mentioned from your post, this is where I think Bloom should turn around and sell and sell hard. Aggressively market Paxton, see if anyone will bite on a real prospect for Sale, get whatever you can for Duvall to give more time to Duran (this needs to be done, regardless) and aggressively market Turner.

Just make a call one way or the other and don't squander another deadline opportunity.

 

[AB in DC]

The way I would put it is that, if the team has any aspirations to the playoffs, they really need a minimum of 5 wins against Oakland and 4 against Cubs/Mets. That would put them at 54-46 with about a week to go before the Trade Deadline. Anything less than that, and we really should be thinking of them as sellers.

One game short of where I wanted them to be. Not worth being a major buyer (unless they can get an average-ish pitcher for cheap) but probably not much of a seller either.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

One game short of where I wanted them to be. Not worth being a major buyer (unless they can get an average-ish pitcher for cheap) but probably not much of a seller either.

So basically last year's strategy then? Get rid of Duvall and any redundancy but don't try for Otani.

 

[YTF]

So basically last year's strategy then? Get rid of Duvall and any redundancy but don't try for Otani.

How much of the farm rebuild or players from what is looking like a young core should Chaim be willing to move for a potential 2 month rental?

 

[AB in DC]

So basically last year's strategy then? Get rid of Duvall and any redundancy but don't try for Otani.

Basically, yeah? I don't see any reason to give up meaningful assets to change a 5% chance at a pennant to a 10% chance. Nor do I see a reason to give up that 5% chance short of a Varitek/Lowe for Slocumb thing. (Or even a McGuire for Diekman )..

 

[TFisNEXT]

Stay healthy (and hopefully get some crucial guys back in the next 2-3 weeks) and these guys have a shot to make the dance. They are good enough to make it....they currently sport the 6th best run differential in the league and have a 2nd and 3rd order win pct that is 5th best in the AL.

They aren't juggernauts, but they can play. The biggest weaknesses are the defense, back of rotation, and back of bullpen. But all 3 of these things can drastically improve if some guys come back....Story really fixes the middle infield defense by moving Kike over to 2B/CF to spell Arroyo/Duran. Any one of Sale/Houck/Whitlock coming back can helpo the rotation and by default, that can shift some guys like Murphy or Pivetta out of the their roles as defacto starters after an opener and make them more traditional bullpen weapons later in the game while pushing the dreck off the roster.

As I've believed for a while now, the path to a Cinderella run is internal. If guys like Sale and Story come back and are their usual above-average selves, then you can envision a realistic scenario where this team is dangerous down the stretch into October. But another injury or two can also render this team irrelevant in September. I think the best path is to stay the course with maybe only a minor move or two on the edges....maybe a back-end rotation filler to eat some innings while they wait for others to get healthy.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

I'm guessing that the immediate roster crunch gets solved by sending Arroyo and his thumb to the IL backdated as deep as possible to be replaced by Reyes. It would then become a three way race between the returns of Arroyo and Story, with the trade deadline coming up the outside rail to see how things shake out.

 

[BaseballJones]

Presently, Boston is 8.5 games out of first, with three teams ahead of them: Bal, TB, and Tor. And the Yankees are tied with them. So winning the division is really an incredibly monumental task. So let's set that aside. It comes down to the wild card then.

TB +4.5
Hou +1
Tor --
Bos -2
NY -2
LAA -4
Sea -4.5
Cle -5.5

Still a difficult task, overcoming Toronto while holding off NY, LAA, Sea, and Cle. But not impossible, obviously.

They'll be (hopefully!) getting back Story (to boost the IF defense and overall offense), Sale (to boost the rotation), Whitlock, Houck, and Schreiber (to boost the overall pitching staff). Maybe not all of them will come back (Houck especially). But that's a LOT of ammo slated to return over the last two months of the season. I mean, if the Sox were contending for the playoffs, and traded for those five guys, we'd absolutely think they're "going for it". Well, they should be getting those guys back without trading anything for them.

I'm not even looking at the schedule because it doesn't matter. They seem to do well against tough teams this year but struggle against lousy teams. So who knows or cares what the schedule looks like. They just need to play like they're capable of playing - which is pretty good - and they have a legit shot.

In addition to the guys returning from the M*A*S*H unit, what else would be reasonable for them to add? In my view...

- a starting pitcher, preferably a rental so it doesn't cost too much
- one more quality bullpen arm

I think that would be about it. That's what I'm hoping they do. We'll see.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

How much of the farm rebuild or players from what is looking like a young core should Chaim be willing to move for a potential 2 month rental?

At a minimum they should be willing to move any prospects who are about to contribute to a Rule V roster crunch.

Shane Drohan, Wilkelman Gonzalez and Angel Bastardo can't all be kept for example you'd think some combination of those 3 guys could bring in a quality major league player. And those are just the first three names I hit running down fangraphs to prospect list for the Sox.

Id aim for one more quality arm and one more middle infielder. Maybe you go to St. Louis and try to get both. Could we get DeJong and Jordan Montgomery for Drohan, Valdez and Duvall (flipping Duvall for a prospect?). That would greatly improve the big league club with minimal impact on future.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I know we don't like to look at schedule (esp this year when they've been schizophrenic), but the @SEA and then back home against TOR 6 game stretch coming up after the Giants series is pretty huge....those are direct competition in the WC race. If they can somehow win 4/6 in that stretch, they would then have the Royals, Tigers and Nats the next 10 games (7 of those at Fenway), so things would be looking up. You'd hope to have Story back by then too sometime during that 10 game homestand that starts with the TOR series. It's possible Sale returns during that homestand too.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

What else would be reasonable for them to add? In my view...

- a starting pitcher, preferably a rental so it doesn't cost too much
- one more quality bullpen arm

I think that would be about it. That's what I'm hoping they do. We'll see.

Edited down for space, but another SP is necessary in my opinion exactly what I think is the bare minimum for them to add, and I'd like to see them go out and get some manner of decent MI option. There are two middle infield positions and right now all of the Red Sox options are below replacement level (excepting Chang's defense). Even if Story comes back reasonably well, that is still one position that remains below replacement level. I don't expect the Sox to have all stars at every position, but I also think they need to have better than 3 guys that are all 25% or worse below average with the bat and a guy coming back from Tommy John Lite surgery.

Those things shouldn't cost much in the way of prospect capital at all, generally speaking the guys at the end of the 40 man that the Sox probably couldn't protect anyway this year (and I'll let @JM3 excellent post on the 40 man situation give us a short list of which of those players we as fans shouldn't feel any hesitancy to move).

If they're not willing, or able, to make those kind of acquisitions at reasonable costs, then they should 1,000% sell Paxton and Turner, and if there is literally any interest in Hernandez or Duvall, those guys should be moved already. For me it's pretty clear, either add at minimum some manner of cheap SP and cheap "slightly below average" (as opposed to way below average) MI option or sell.

 

[BaseballJones]

If everyone comes back healthy, with no moves, here's my ideal roster...

C - Wong, McGuire
IF - Casas, Arroyo, Chang, Story, Devers, Turner
OF - Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder
SP - Sale, Bello, Paxton, Crawford, Houck
RP - Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Winckowski, Jansen, Martin, Murphy, and then one of Bernadino/Walter/Rodriguez

That would be a quality rotation, lots of very good bullpen arms, and a good/versatile offense. That team right there can compete for the playoffs and I could definitely see them having what it takes to win a postseason series.

But the odds of them having all that back together at once seem small given the injury situation. Something else is bound to go wrong. But that right there is a good team.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Flip side is that the team mentioned above (yes, excepting Story) was not in a playoff position when they had it earlier in the year. It's a team that (depending on when the snapshot is taken) is probably +/- lets call it 3 games of .500 either way. Which is what most of us thought they were starting the year - a decent team, but one that is highly unlikely to make up the ground necessary to overtake Houston or Toronto while simultaneously holding off the Yankees.

I mean, if we're going to just accept that the "acquisitions" are guys coming back, the Yankees are "adding" a heck of a lot more in Aaron Judge, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon (because if we're going to assume our players round into form, we must be consistent and assume for their players too) and those three are a heck of a lot better to add cumulatively than Story, Sale, Houck and Whitlock.

Same thing for Houston in "adding" Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Jose Urquidy.

Just "getting back" the players on the IL isn't enough. Teams either in front of tied with the Red Sox are going to do that too, with much better players. Which again is why the Red Sox (at least in my opinion) need to make SOME buys - even if that is just a rental SP, a middle infielder that isn't terrible and Hansel Robles v2023. If they aren't going to do that - which by the way making a call that the team isn't good enough would be fine, then sell and sell hard; just don't half a$$ it again.

 

[joe dokes]

Whatever they do, I think we should avoid the media-created simple-mindedness of "are they buyers or are they sellers?" Where the Red Sox are right now is far more complicated than that. They could certainly benefit from some short-term help; and they have some excess parts and could use some 40-man roster relief.

 

[Max Power]

Flip side is that the team mentioned above (yes, excepting Story) was not in a playoff position when they had it earlier in the year. It's a team that (depending on when the snapshot is taken) is probably +/- lets call it 3 games of .500 either way. Which is what most of us thought they were starting the year - a decent team, but one that is highly unlikely to make up the ground necessary to overtake Houston or Toronto while simultaneously holding off the Yankees.

I mean, if we're going to just accept that the acquisitions are guys coming back, the Yankees are "adding" a heck of a lot more in Aaron Judge, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon (because if we're going to assume our players round into form, we must be consistent and assume the same for Rodon) and those three are a heck of a lot better to add cumulatively than Story, Sale, Houck and Whitlock.

Same thing for Houston in "adding" Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Jose Urquidy.

Just "getting back" the players on the IL isn't enough. Teams either in front of tied with the Red Sox are going to do that too, with much better players. Which again is why the Red Sox (at least in my opinion) either need to make SOME buys - even if that is just a rental SP, a middle infielder that isn't terrible and Hansel Robles v2023. If not, sell and sell hard.

You can keep posting variations on the same thing over and over, but it never makes any more sense. Upgrading Christian Arroyo shouldn't be the difference between playing out the season and seeing what happens and blowing it up.

 

[YTF]

If everyone comes back healthy, with no moves, here's my ideal roster...

C - Wong, McGuire
IF - Casas, Arroyo, Chang, Story, Devers, Turner
OF - Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder
SP - Sale, Bello, Paxton, Crawford, Houck
RP - Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Winckowski, Jansen, Martin, Murphy, and then one of Bernadino/Walter/Rodriguez

That would be a quality rotation, lots of very good bullpen arms, and a good/versatile offense. That team right there can compete for the playoffs and I could definitely see them having what it takes to win a postseason series.

But the odds of them having all that back together at once seem small given the injury situation. Something else is bound to go wrong. But that right there is a good team.

I don't necessarily disagree with the gist of what you've written, but there are a few large variables here that will keep this situation in some state of Flux.

With just 8 days until the deadline, how soon are we anticipation the return of injured players that we are counting onto give the team a boost? IMO, that is going to play a big role for determining who to target. When do you buy? Does getting the jump on other team's cost more? Some teams won't know if they are selling until some point later this week.

 

[Fishy1]

For some context, here's the run differential for the entire league. Teams 8-11 are tied at .4, with the Sox being one of them. So, basically, in the top 1/3rd of the league by run diff.

Red Sox stand to see improvement in the second half because (1) Corey Kluber is no longer starting for the Red Sox (praise Jesus) and Ryan Brasier is out and so is Ort and hopefully Garza soon, (2) Chris Sale will hopefully be healthy, and (3) Houck and Whitlock had a rough go in the first half but peripherals indicated they were better than they appeared. They'll also be getting Trevor Story back at SS, whose demise was much maligned on this board, but surprise! he's healthy and playing a wicked SS down in Portland. Oh, and Bleier and Schreiber, the former who might be cooked (but has looked good since coming back) and the latter who is very good.

They'll have to make some decisions about the pen - with Houck, Whitlock and Sale all coming back, Crawford being cromulent and Bello and Paxton being great, they'll have the luxury of moving one of Whitlock and Houck to the pen. Pivetta and Chris Murphy have also really shined in long relief. I think the most likely scenario is Whitlock goes to the pen and they rely on him, Pivetta, and Murphy to carry the team if Houck/Crawford can only pitch 4-5 innings.

I'm not sure how there's really room in there to add another starting pitcher with three guys coming back and Pivetta and Murphy pitching so well in extended bullpen roles, but I see the argument for it. Houck and Whitlock give you more as starters, but if you can push them to the bullpen and add another very good starting pitcher, why not? There's quite a glut of guys in the upper minors at this juncture, and trading for a strong starting pitcher with future control would be something I would endorse. Nabbing another 4/5 starter who is on an expiring seems a little silly, though, given that we have three of them coming back and the bullpen games have actually been going really well for us.

Yes, the Yankees are getting back two starters in Cortes and Rodon, but I'll be interested to see how those comebacks go. Cortes had a rotator cuff strain, his strikeouts were down, his walks were up, and he was a pretty average pitcher this year, with around the same FIP as Houck and Whitlock and worse than Kutter Crawford. Rodon, on the other hand, has been really, really bad since getting back from the disabled list, with a Kluberish FIP of 7.16, a BB/9 of 5.8 and a K/9 of 6.8. Very limited data so far, just three starts, and it's possible both those guys round into form, but I think Yankees fans are probably just as skeptical that they will as Red Sox fans are that Sale stays healthy the rest of the year (something I'm actually relatively sanguine about).

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are pretty healthy and have been most of the season. I wonder if the Sox have the returning players to give them the gas to pass them. We'll see!

 

[AB in DC]

Just "getting back" the players on the IL isn't enough. Teams either in front of tied with the Red Sox are going to do that too, with much better players. Which again is why the Red Sox (at least in my opinion) need to make SOME buys - even if that is just a rental SP, a middle infielder that isn't terrible and Hansel Robles v2023. If they aren't going to do that - which by the way making a call that the team isn't good enough would be fine, then sell and sell hard; just don't half a$$ it again.

I mean...probably? But this isn't a GFIN year, right? So at some point youve gotta just roll the dice.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I agree it's not a GFIN year, assuredly.

I personally tend to disagree with the "just rolling the dice" mentality though.

Absolutely certain this will get some push back, which I respect, but I think we have all read enough articles and interviews surrounding the deadline about how much it can invigorate a team when the FO "buys" and how much it really deflates a team when nothing is done (just see the comments from Jansen and Martin in the past week about hoping the team buys to tell you where the mindset of the clubhouse is), Cora has made similar comments as well.

Which is why I think that IF the FO isn't going to buy AND the team is on the outside looking in (at least as we stand here today) AND the team with most of the players coming back weren't in playoff position when they were here AND teams in front of or close to you are "getting back" just as much that they would be better served to sell than do nothing.

To be absolutely certain, I'm not saying they should be looking to move Marcelo Mayer (or any of the lets say top 20ish prospects) for a two month rental. But there are plenty of holes on the team that could be addressed by finding players that are even slightly below average at the positions in question which shouldn't cost more than prospects that are unlikely to be protected in the off-season anyway.

However, for all I know, Bloom et al have already been calling on those type of deals and know that they won't be able to make them - in which case they should take advantage of the seller's market and move the good players on expiring deals (Turner and Paxton). Doing nothing is highly likely going to have the same effect as selling (dejecting the clubhouse while still not likely making the playoffs), so either buy some small pieces OR sell and get additional assets to use to help them 2024-2030 teams.

 

[jbupstate]

I keep looking at the Baltimore numbers. 23 games over .500 with a run differential of +48 (Sox +41, SDP +52!!!).

Are the Orioles as good as their record? Their pitching has only given up 23 less runs than the Sox. Toronto and Tampa have the pitching AND excellent lineups. Add a healthy Sale and the Sox have the pitching to get better.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's a team that (depending on when the snapshot is taken) is probably +/- lets call it 3 games of .500 either way.

But, they're not. They're on a pace to win 86 games. .530 WP

Per their pythag, they'd be on a pace to win 87 games. .540 WP

(FWIW, Tampa got into the WC last year with 86 wins.)

Which is what most of us thought they were starting the year - a decent team, but one that is highly unlikely to make up the ground necessary to overtake Houston or Toronto while simultaneously holding off the Yankees.

Most of us actually predicted something in the 85-89 range.

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-predict-the-2023-red-sox-season.38943/

Their "true talent level" is hard to opine about with any kind of accuracy. They suffered through inconsistent play early on, then were hit with a slew of SP injuries/bad luck, esp. regarding the rotation and middle infield. (If Houck hadn't been hit with that comebacker, we'd probably think very differently about the team's chances. We'd also more likely be on a 90 game win pace.) Or not - because nobody predicted Duran, and Yoshida has been best-of-projection thusfar.

***

As of today, they have 62 games left - approximately 12-13 times through the rotation. The course of those 62 games really will depend on who comes back and how healthy they are.

As mentioned above, Tampa got in last year with 86 wins (or a .531 WP). Now those 86 wins came in the context of an unbalanced schedule that heavily favored division rivals: 76 divisional games, 60 non-divisional games, and 26 inter-league games.

This year, not only have the composition of the teams changed (as they will every year) but we're on a more balanced schedule where we play only 52 divisional games, 64 non-divisional games, and 46 inter-league games. So comparisons will always never quite be point-to-point. A lot of have-not teams with very low WPs will have total wins shift to the "have" teams. . .but again, there's the more balanced schedule, so those wins won't always stay in the AL, let alone the division.

However, for whatever it's worth, last year the AL WC standings went like this:

[TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]Tm[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]W-L%[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]3[/TH] [TH]4[/TH] [TH]5[/TH] [TH]6[/TH] [TH]7[/TH] [TH]8[/TH] [TH]9[/TH] [TH]10[/TH] [TH]11[/TH] [TH]12[/TH] [TH]13[/TH] [TH]14[/TH] [TH]15[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH]

Houston Astros	106	56	.654
New York Yankees	99	63	.611
Cleveland Guardians	92	70	.568
Toronto Blue Jays	92	70	.568
Seattle Mariners	90	72	.556
Tampa Bay Rays	86	76	.531
Baltimore Orioles	83	79	.512
Chicago White Sox	81	81	.500
Minnesota Twins	78	84	.481
Boston Red Sox	78	84	.481
Los Angeles Angels	73	89	.451
Texas Rangers	68	94	.420
Detroit Tigers	66	96	.407
Kansas City Royals	65	97	.401
Oakland Athletics	60	102	.370

This year we're currently at:

1 Baltimore Orioles 61 38 .616
2 Tampa Bay Rays 61 42 .592
3 Texas Rangers 59 41 .590
4 Houston Astros 56 44 .560
5 Toronto Blue Jays 55 45 .550
6 Boston Red Sox 53 47 .530
7 New York Yankees 53 47 .530
8 Minnesota Twins 53 48 .525
9 Los Angeles Angels 51 49 .510
10 Seattle Mariners 50 49 .505
11 Cleveland Guardians 49 50 .495
12 Detroit Tigers 45 54 .455
13 Chicago White Sox 41 60 .406
14 Kansas City Royals 28 73 .277
15 Oakland Athletics 28 74 .275

So the way this is shaping up is that the AL central might take one of the 6 playoff slots with a very low WP (who knows) but that a .530 to .540 WP might be enough to get into the playoffs.

Right now it looks like the Jays, Yanks, and Red Sox might be in a scrum for that spot.

Anything can happen in 62 games, but strength of schedule does matter quite a bit here. It's possible that apart from the division leaders, the 3 WC teams will run up a higher WP than they did in the unbalanced schedule. Or maybe it will stay close to the 2022 WC results.

But even there, as far as direct games against WC rivals, the Sox play:
BAL - 7
TBR - 2
TEX - 6
HOU - 7
TOR - 6
NYY - 7

Their destiny is till very much theirs to write.

 

[chrisfont9]

But, they're not. They're on a pace to win 86 games. .530 WP

Per their pythag, they'd be on a pace to win 87 games. .540 WP

(FWIW, Tampa got into the WC last year with 86 wins.)



Most of us actually predicted something in the 85-89 range.

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-predict-the-2023-red-sox-season.38943/

Their "true talent level" is hard to opine about with any kind of accuracy. They suffered through inconsistent play early on, then were hit with a slew of SP injuries/bad luck, esp. regarding the rotation and middle infield. (If Houck hadn't been hit with that comebacker, we'd probably think very differently about the team's chances. We'd also more likely be on a 90 game win pace.) Or not - because nobody predicted Duran, and Yoshida has been best-of-projection thusfar.

***

As of today, they have 62 games left - approximately 12-13 times through the rotation. The course of those 62 games really will depend on who comes back and how healthy they are.

As mentioned above, Tampa got in last year with 86 wins (or a .531 WP). Now those 86 wins came in the context of an unbalanced schedule that heavily favored division rivals: 76 divisional games, 60 non-divisional games, and 26 inter-league games.

This year, not only have the composition of the teams changed (as they will every year) but we're on a more balanced schedule where we play only 52 divisional games, 64 non-divisional games, and 46 inter-league games. So comparisons will always never quite be point-to-point. A lot of have-not teams with very low WPs will have total wins shift to the "have" teams. . .but again, there's the more balanced schedule, so those wins won't always stay in the AL, let alone the division.

However, for whatever it's worth, last year the AL WC standings went like this:

[TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]Tm[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]W-L%[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]3[/TH] [TH]4[/TH] [TH]5[/TH] [TH]6[/TH] [TH]7[/TH] [TH]8[/TH] [TH]9[/TH] [TH]10[/TH] [TH]11[/TH] [TH]12[/TH] [TH]13[/TH] [TH]14[/TH] [TH]15[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH]

Houston Astros	106	56	.654
New York Yankees	99	63	.611
Cleveland Guardians	92	70	.568
Toronto Blue Jays	92	70	.568
Seattle Mariners	90	72	.556
Tampa Bay Rays	86	76	.531
Baltimore Orioles	83	79	.512
Chicago White Sox	81	81	.500
Minnesota Twins	78	84	.481
Boston Red Sox	78	84	.481
Los Angeles Angels	73	89	.451
Texas Rangers	68	94	.420
Detroit Tigers	66	96	.407
Kansas City Royals	65	97	.401
Oakland Athletics	60	102	.370

This year we're currently at:

1 Baltimore Orioles 61 38 .616
2 Tampa Bay Rays 61 42 .592
3 Texas Rangers 59 41 .590
4 Houston Astros 56 44 .560
5 Toronto Blue Jays 55 45 .550
6 Boston Red Sox 53 47 .530
7 New York Yankees 53 47 .530
8 Minnesota Twins 53 48 .525
9 Los Angeles Angels 51 49 .510
10 Seattle Mariners 50 49 .505
11 Cleveland Guardians 49 50 .495
12 Detroit Tigers 45 54 .455
13 Chicago White Sox 41 60 .406
14 Kansas City Royals 28 73 .277
15 Oakland Athletics 28 74 .275

So the way this is shaping up is that the AL central might take one of the 6 playoff slots with a very low WP (who knows) but that a .530 to .540 WP might be enough to get into the playoffs.

Right now it looks like the Jays, Yanks, and Red Sox might be in a scrum for that spot.

Anything can happen in 62 games, but strength of schedule does matter quite a bit here. It's possible that apart from the division leaders, the 3 WC teams will run up a higher WP than they did in the unbalanced schedule. Or maybe it will stay close to the 2022 WC results.

But even there, as far as direct games against WC rivals, the Sox play:
BAL - 7
TBR - 2
TEX - 6
HOU - 7
TOR - 6
NYY - 7

Their destiny is till very much theirs to write.

If we can get some of the rotation back to where it was... this is going to be a tremendous couple months of baseball. Anyone from the "I just want to be entertained for now" group should be feeling excited about this. They are competitive, even with so many key players out. They're about to get more competitive -- though exactly when is tbd and crucial -- and they are locked into intense competition. What more could we ask for, this year anyway?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

But, they're not. They're on a pace to win 86 games. .530 WP

Per their pythag, they'd be on a pace to win 87 games. .540 WP

(FWIW, Tampa got into the WC last year with 86 wins.)



Most of us actually predicted something in the 85-89 range.



Their destiny is till very much theirs to write.

Fair - I mistakenly added in the "miss playoffs" number to the voting. It was, I think, 47% for 84 wins or less and 53% for 85 or more.

My point was more if the "snapshot" had been taken following the close of "Friday's" games (so factoring in the loss in G1 to the Mets) they'd have been on pace for an 84 win season, two games later and it's 86. So it's going to fluctuate pretty somewhat dramatically on the day and the streak the team happens to be on. Or at least that has been the way the team has been up to this point in the season.

Though - just to be clear, I'm saying this is a team I think the FO should - at a bare minimum around the edges - invest in a little bit. They shouldn't break the bank for short term rentals, but it'd be a shame for them not to at least go after moves like they made in 2021 (swapping out some guys who are of no prospect consequence for actual MLB players - not that I "expect" them to hit on the success they did with Schwarber, necessarily).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Though - just to be clear, I'm saying this is a team I think the FO should - at a bare minimum around the edges - invest in a little bit. They shouldn't break the bank for short term rentals, but it'd be a shame for them not to at least go after moves like they made in 2021 (swapping out some guys who are of no prospect consequence for actual MLB players - not that I "expect" them to hit on the success they did with Schwarber, necessarily).

Is anyone arguing that they shouldn't do the bolded if the opportunity is there?

Something to keep in mind about the 2021 deadline is that nearly everyone (here, media, radio callers) was upset about that in the moment, specifically that it wasn't enough for a team in the hunt for a post-season berth. They were in first place in the division and acquired two iffy relievers and an injured slugger who didn't seem to fit at any position of need. In retrospect, it turned out great and all three guys contributed in various ways to a deep post-season run.

That second half and post-season run was also fueled by a couple scrap-heap pick-ups (Shaw and Iglesias), a couple incumbent players catching fire (Dalbec in particular but also Verdugo, Kike, and Renfroe had stronger final two months than the previous four), and players returning from injury (Schwarber and Sale).

Point being that it doesn't have to come down to making moves at the deadline for the team to have a strong final two months. Getting injured players back, having in-house guys getting hot, and continuing to scour the waiver wire are also viable means for the team to improve. And might be more prudent for a team that is close but still on the outside looking in as the deadline approaches.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If we can get some of the rotation back to where it was... this is going to be a tremendous couple months of baseball. Anyone from the "I just want to be entertained for now" group should be feeling excited about this. They are competitive, even with so many key players out. They're about to get more competitive -- though exactly when is tbd and crucial -- and they are locked into intense competition. What more could we ask for, this year anyway?

I'd have to go through far too many posts, but a lot of the "I just want a fun, competitive team every season.... like the Dodgers!" have now shifted slightly to, "even if they make the playoffs, they're unlikely to win anything".
They look like they should be play meaningful games though August and September. If they just lose out to the Yankees I'll be really bummed out but so far have really enjoyed this season, despite some serious frustrating play. This is a fun team and if they do get in they could go deep. Last year felt the opposite... the team was just not fun to watch and at this point in '22 it was really hard to see them going deep like they did in '21.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'd have to go through far too many posts, but a lot of the "I just want a fun, competitive team every season.... like the Dodgers!" have now shifted slightly to, "even if they make the playoffs, they're unlikely to win anything".
They look like they should be play meaningful games though August and September. If they just lose out to the Yankees I'll be really bummed out but so far have really enjoyed this season, despite some serious frustrating play. This is a fun team and if they do get in they could go deep. Last year felt the opposite... the team was just not fun to watch and at this point in '22 it was really hard to see them going deep like they did in '21.

I'd bet a lot of those feelings have to do with how the teams were playing. Last year at this point, they had lost 9 of their previous 10 and 15 of 20. This year, they're trending entirely in the other direction: winning 6 of their last 10 and 13 of 20. The idea that they're doing well right now despite 3/5 of their rotation being on the IL is good reason for optimism as guys start to get healthy. And if they have everyone or nearly everyone healthy, there's no reason to think they can't be very competitive through the end of the season and are capable of making a run if they make the post-season.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd have to go through far too many posts, but a lot of the "I just want a fun, competitive team every season.... like the Dodgers!" have now shifted slightly to, "even if they make the playoffs, they're unlikely to win anything".
They look like they should be play meaningful games though August and September. If they just lose out to the Yankees I'll be really bummed out but so far have really enjoyed this season, despite some serious frustrating play. This is a fun team and if they do get in they could go deep. Last year felt the opposite... the team was just not fun to watch and at this point in '22 it was really hard to see them going deep like they did in '21.

On this day in 2022, the Red Sox started the following players (batting 5-9 in the order):
LF Franchy Cordero
1B Bobby Dalbec
RF Jackie Bradley
2B Yolmer Sanchez
3B Jeter Downs

Also Duran in CF, although he was still hitting .250 at the time. Bello started and was not great, though we are two days past the 28-5 drubbing, which was started by... Nathan Eovaldi. Anyway, yeah, last year was awful.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'd bet a lot of those feelings have to do with how the teams were playing. Last year at this point, they had lost 9 of their previous 10 and 15 of 20. This year, they're trending entirely in the other direction: winning 6 of their last 10 and 13 of 20. The idea that they're doing well right now despite 3/5 of their rotation being on the IL is good reason for optimism as guys start to get healthy. And if they have everyone or nearly everyone healthy, there's no reason to think they can't be very competitive through the end of the season and are capable of making a run if they make the post-season.

On this day in 2022, the Red Sox started the following players (batting 5-9 in the order):
LF Franchy Cordero
1B Bobby Dalbec
RF Jackie Bradley
2B Yolmer Sanchez
3B Jeter Downs

Also Duran in CF, although he was still hitting .250 at the time. Bello started and was not great, though we are two days past the 28-5 drubbing, which was started by... Nathan Eovaldi. Anyway, yeah, last year was awful.

Probably a lot of both of these. The '22 team just had a bunch of players that were in no way shape or form going to be part of the future. The deadline deals brought in 2 of 3 guys that were 95% unlikely to be on the '23 team where we were at least looking forward to Bello and Casas and some outside additions... along with (like Spring itself....) a healthy Sale. Even if they collapse this year, there's a lot of hope still for next season. It's just a different team as far as where the long-term outlook is aligning

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Is anyone arguing that they shouldn't do the bolded if the opportunity is there?

Something to keep in mind about the 2021 deadline is that nearly everyone (here, media, radio callers) was upset about that in the moment, specifically that it wasn't enough for a team in the hunt for a post-season berth. They were in first place in the division and acquired two iffy relievers and an injured slugger who didn't seem to fit at any position of need. In retrospect, it turned out great and all three guys contributed in various ways to a deep post-season run.

That second half and post-season run was also fueled by a couple scrap-heap pick-ups (Shaw and Iglesias), a couple incumbent players catching fire (Dalbec in particular but also Verdugo, Kike, and Renfroe had stronger final two months than the previous four), and players returning from injury (Schwarber and Sale).

Point being that it doesn't have to come down to making moves at the deadline for the team to have a strong final two months. Getting injured players back, having in-house guys getting hot, and continuing to scour the waiver wire are also viable means for the team to improve. And might be more prudent for a team that is close but still on the outside looking in as the deadline approaches.

No - but there does seem to be traction behind some folks saying if they can't do that, then they should just play it out. I'm saying if the opportunity isn't there (OR if the FO isn't willing to take it) then they should sell. If they don't make some manner of acquisitions, and if one assumes Cora has his finger on the pulse of the club at all, it's going to be seen as "not investing in the team" within the clubhouse. Especially when two of the most veteran presences in the clubhouse (Jansen and Martin) are saying similar things.

Or - who knows - maybe those three are off sitting in Cora's office and playing backgammon all day and the rest of the team thinks they're morons. But I find that unlikely.

But even with the "around the edges" moves, you're still going to need the things you mentioned above for the team to overtake one of Houston or Toronto and hold off the Yankees. Not to mention the chance of doing much if and when you get to the post-season. But if you don't make some acquisitions, I don't think the above will even have the chance to "matter", so to speak.

When the manager says this heading into the trade deadline, it's kind of tough to see how just waiting on injured players to return will sit well at all in the clubhouse: “It’s not about how many prospects you have or where your farm system is. It might be No. 1 or 30th or whatever. The one that really counts is how many games you win in October and how many games you play in October. That’s what we’re shooting for."

Especially when two of the teams they're fighting for the last playoff spot with are going to get back superior players (Houston and NY).

(https://www.nbcboston.com/news/alex-cora-chaim-bloom-trade-deadline-october/3092357/)

 

[chawson]

I voted Stand Pat, but I think it'll be a complicated and dynamic series of moves like last year's deadline, with more moves for the future than straight rentals. One difference is that we've definitely got more assets, and a bigger surplus of 40-man caliber players for 2024.

I don't think Bloom's the type to pay much for rentals, so I think even those who are set to hit free agency (any of the pitchers) could be guys we'd want to re-sign. Flaherty still seems like a strong fit in that regard.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

No - but there does seem to be traction behind some folks saying if they can't do that, then they should just play it out. I'm saying if the opportunity isn't there (OR if the FO isn't willing to take it) then they should sell. If they don't make some manner of acquisitions, and if one assumes Cora has his finger on the pulse of the club at all, it's going to be seen as "not investing in the team" within the clubhouse. Especially when two of the most veteran presences in the clubhouse (Jansen and Martin) are saying similar things.

So basically, make moves for the sake of making moves even if the right deals aren't there because of a fear that the players will interpret non-action as the FO having no confidence in them or blow it up by selling off a bunch of guys and confirming quite loudly that the FO has no confidence in the current team? No room for a third option of surveying the market and if there are no worthwhile deals, telling the team that they're good enough as is?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

So basically, make moves for the sake of making moves even if the right deals aren't there because of a fear that the players will interpret non-action as the FO having no confidence in them or blow it up by selling off a bunch of guys and confirming quite loudly that the FO has no confidence in the current team? No room for a third option of surveying the market and if there are no worthwhile deals, telling the team that they're good enough as is?

For better or worse, no. I think that's a recipe for staying a middling baseball team.

I don't think the 2023 team is good enough as is. I don't think the players the Red Sox are ostensibly getting back and healthy are as good as the Yankees (Judge, Cortes and Rodon returning to form) and Houston (Alvarez, Altuve, Urquidy), and on top of that, I think the farm system has a major deficiency in terms of starting pitching prospects that look like they're going to be solid MLB starting pitchers.

So when you have a present team that isn't good enough to win AND a farm system with a major glaring hole, you should find a way to fix (or get more future assets to help fix) one, and not leave both unaddressed.




*I suppose it's possible that guys the Sox would want to rent cost so much that they can't be obtained for less than the Sox top 20ish prospects AND that Paxton and Turner are seen as such damaged goods or so old in the eyes of the industry that despite having an excellent season they're worth considerably less than other team's short term veterans having worse years, but I find that highly unlikely.

 

[AB in DC]

I don't think the 2023 team is good enough as is. I don't think the players the Red Sox are ostensibly getting back and healthy are as good as the Yankees (Judge, Cortes and Rodon returning to form) and Houston (Alvarez, Altuve, Urquidy), and on top of that, I think the farm system has a major deficiency in terms of starting pitching prospects that look like they're going to be solid MLB starting pitchers.

Is TINSTAAPP no longer a thing around here?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Here, maybe. Out in LA, no, that's all they draft any more. Hahaha.

Though that's why I clarified with "future assets."

If they were to decide to sell, maybe they can't get (just using the Jennings - I think - suggestion of) or don't want AJ Smith Shawver and others for Paxton, but if they can get different high end prospects they can use to flip for pitching in the off-season, so be it.

But if the Sox aren't going to spend big on pitching in the FA market anymore (not saying if they should or shouldn't, but they don't appear willing to) then it's going to have to come either from the system or from trades, and they don't really have it in the system right now - at least at the AA level or above - so...

 

[Rovin Romine]

For better or worse, no. I think that's a recipe for staying a middling baseball team.

I don't think the 2023 team is good enough as is. I don't think the players the Red Sox are ostensibly getting back and healthy are as good as the Yankees (Judge, Cortes and Rodon returning to form) and Houston (Alvarez, Altuve, Urquidy), and on top of that, I think the farm system has a major deficiency in terms of starting pitching prospects that look like they're going to be solid MLB starting pitchers.

So when you have a present team that isn't good enough to win AND a farm system with a major glaring hole, you should find a way to fix (or get more future assets to help fix) one, and not leave both unaddressed.




*I suppose it's possible that guys the Sox would want to rent cost so much that they can't be obtained for less than the Sox top 20ish prospects AND that Paxton and Turner are seen as such damaged goods or so old in the eyes of the industry that despite having an excellent season they're worth considerably less than other team's short term veterans having worse years, but I find that highly unlikely.

There are a few things here that just don't hang together.

1) You may not "think" the 2023 team is good enough as is. And yet they're hanging in there.

2) You may not think that a healthy Trevor Story replacing one of the black-hole lineup slots is important, but it is. I mean, otherwise, what do you want the team to do? (Seriously.) Do you want them to upgrade Yoshida? Devers? Casas? There's really not a lot of room there for improvement in the sense that a lot of these players are already solid contributors, and many of them are long-term fixtures. (I mean, maybe you find a RF that's better than Verdugo for the run - but what will that cost you - and how big of a final upgrade would it be?)

3) The fact that the farm has few high level starters is problematic. And yet, we've got a good young cost-controlled core of pitching in Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, and (it seems) Murphy. Maybe you don't need to add young arms every single season. So why scupper this ML season to get a AAA pitching binkie for someone to prospect-hump?

 

[BaseballJones]

Is TINSTAAPP no longer a thing around here?

I never understood that in the first place. There's all kinds of quality pitching prospects that turn into really good major leaguers.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I suppose it's a difference of opinion @Rovin Romine in that for me - personally - there is very little difference in missing out on the playoffs by 2 games or missing them by 20, aside from the fact that in the former, you probably didn't do much to improve for the following season but in the latter you could - so I'd rather miss them by 20 than 2, if that makes sense. I don't expect everyone to subscribe to that, but I personally vastly preferred the Red Sox 2010-2020 as opposed to, lets say, the Rays from that same (general) time frame or the Billy Beane A's (but more on that below).

I think it's important (Story), but no, I don't think what the Red Sox are getting back is anywhere close to what the Yankees and Astros are "getting back." If we assume Sox players are all going to return fully healthy and firing away, we need to be consistent and assume the same for other teams, no?

However, to my point above - that's how I feel as a fan - probably not how the guys in the clubhouse feel. And It's also "how" they've gotten to this point that makes me think they should invest something into the team this year - even if it gets them nothing more than trying to "instill a winning culture" in the young players and puts them at that place I personally can't stand (a game or two out at the end of the year). I don't think it's a great message to have the "controlled core" in many ways leading this charge and send the message that the team isn't going to be invested in, even if they're playing well.

I use the Joc Pederson reference that Martin made when talking about the Braves in 2021 and how the team viewed that. Joc Pederson wasn't exactly going out and getting Acuna but he was a competent MLB player that they moved something called Bryce Ball for. I think Bloom absolutely has to make deals like the "starting pitching and middle infield" equivalent of that.

Martin quotes - https://nesn.com/2023/07/red-sox-teammate-backs-kenley-jansens-trade-deadline-stance/

 

[AB in DC]

for me - personally - there is very little difference in missing out on the playoffs by 2 games or missing them by 20, aside from the fact that in the former, you probably didn't do much to improve for the following season but in the latter you could

I don't see any possible trade being discussed that would improve the team "much" next year. We're mostly talking about selling guys like Turner and Paxton for prospects who may or may not make any difference in future seasons. I'd rather roll the dice now and see what happens. You only get so much chances to get to the big dance.

 

[sezwho]

I never understood that in the first place. There's all kinds of quality pitching prospects that turn into really good major leaguers.

Glad you mentioned that, I do get it but I’ve always given this quote the side eye a bit. Ironically, given the first round draft pick, I’ve actually become more skeptical of catching prospects.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I don't see any possible trade being discussed that would improve the team "much" next year. We're mostly talking about selling guys like Turner and Paxton for prospects who may or may not make any difference in future seasons. I'd rather roll the dice now and see what happens. You only get so much chances to get to the big dance.

Fair enough, differences of opinion are fun and I, respectfully, agree to disagree. FWIW, I'd agree with that if the Red Sox were a team that was starved for a playoff chance because they hadn't been there in 20 years or were (still) a franchise associated with always losing.

I agree @BaseballJones - but I just tend to really dislike absolutes in general. Sometimes you're going to get Max Scherzer and his combined 33 games started in the minors (just an unbelievable stat) and he becomes the Hall of Famer people thought he'd and other times you're going to get Henry Owens. Most times you're going to get something between that. But it doesn't make pitching prospects any less valuable than any other prospect, at least not in my opinion. Though I've always taken in to mean we should be more "on board" with trading pitching prospects for established MLB players as opposed to them not being valuable.

 

[joe dokes]

This (from 2019) is a good rundown of "pitching prospect" evolution:
There’s (Almost) No Such Thing As a Top Pitching Prospect - The Ringer

 

[Rovin Romine]

I suppose it's a difference of opinion @Rovin Romine in that for me - personally - there is very little difference in missing out on the playoffs by 2 games or missing them by 20, aside from the fact that in the former, you probably didn't do much to improve for the following season but in the latter you could - so I'd rather miss them by 20 than 2, if that makes sense. I don't expect everyone to subscribe to that, but I personally vastly preferred the Red Sox 2010-2020 as opposed to, lets say, the Rays from that same (general) time frame or the Billy Beane A's (but more on that below).

I think it's important (Story), but no, I don't think what the Red Sox are getting back is anywhere close to what the Yankees and Astros are "getting back." If we assume Sox players are all going to return fully healthy and firing away, we need to be consistent and assume the same for other teams, no?

However, to my point above - that's how I feel as a fan - probably not how the guys in the clubhouse feel. And It's also "how" they've gotten to this point that makes me think they should invest something into the team this year - even if it gets them nothing more than trying to "instill a winning culture" in the young players and puts them at that place I personally can't stand (a game or two out at the end of the year). I don't think it's a great message to have the "controlled core" in many ways leading this charge and send the message that the team isn't going to be invested in, even if they're playing well.

I use the Joc Pederson reference that Martin made when talking about the Braves in 2021 and how the team viewed that. Joc Pederson wasn't exactly going out and getting Acuna but he was a competent MLB player that they moved something called Bryce Ball for. I think Bloom absolutely has to make deals like the "starting pitching and middle infield" equivalent of that.

Martin quotes - https://nesn.com/2023/07/red-sox-teammate-backs-kenley-jansens-trade-deadline-stance/

The club does not get to know ahead of time whether they will make the playoffs or not. They can reasonably decide they're positioned to have a good chance and that there is no actual, real world, trade that is going to provide a marginal upgrade worth the cost of that trade.

I mean, I expect they'll do something, but upthread you've proposed a) ditching most of the prospects to get a SP/2B help, OR b) punting on the season and trying to trade Sale, Paxton, Duvall, etc. Neither of those things are likely to happen. The first is gross waste if indeed Story and Houck/Whitlock/Sale are returning. The second simply sends the wrong message to everyone, including sponsors and ticket-holders.

Maybe something dramatic will happen, but I think you're more likely to see trades for support pieces, or perhaps someone like Verdugo/Duvall heading out, perhaps to address someone who is more seriously injured than we know (McGuire, perhaps). Certainly if they can acquire an arm or two to replace the lowest numbered guys in the pen/rotation they'll explore that.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

To be clear, when I talk about "trading" good prospects, I only mean for a really good pitcher with term, not in any way for a rental.

Jettisoning or "ditching" guys on the fringes of the 40 man for rentals, absolutely. But I'm talking about vastly different types of players for vastly different types of prospects.



To be clear, I think the former has no chance of happening (but would I deal and advocate dealing something like Bleis, Yorke and Drohan for Dylan Cease, yes, absolutely. Would I consider one of them for Lucas Giolito - no shot). I don't believe Bloom will trade any of the top 25 prospects in this trade deadline, nor in this off-season, and probably not until / unless there is a 2013 mid-season situation that arises, and even then I'm not sure he would.

I think the latter NEEDS to happen. If the latter doesn't (or can't) that's when i'd take advantage of the seller's market.

 

[jon abbey]

I never understood that in the first place. There's all kinds of quality pitching prospects that turn into really good major leaguers.

Thank you, I truly hate that acronym.

 

[LogansDad]

I suppose it's a difference of opinion @Rovin Romine in that for me - personally - there is very little difference in missing out on the playoffs by 2 games or missing them by 20, aside from the fact that in the former, you probably didn't do much to improve for the following season but in the latter you could - so I'd rather miss them by 20 than 2, if that makes sense. I don't expect everyone to subscribe to that, but I personally vastly preferred the Red Sox 2010-2020 as opposed to, lets say, the Rays from that same (general) time frame or the Billy Beane A's (but more on that below).

Is this for real? You'd rather watch two months of meaningless baseball, than a week, tops? I couldn't possibly disagree more. Missing by 2 games means that we got to watch meaningful and, likely, exciting games well into September.

I get it. It's championship or bust around these parts, which, while I think is a ridiculous way to watch sports, I have given up trying to convince anyone otherwise. Last year was miserable after about the end of June, and this year looks like, even if they may not be the "strongest" team in the field, a fall that could be a lot of fun, even if the team decides that standing pat is the right thing to do. I'd take that kind of a season any year.