It's the halfway mark. Where we at?

Based on the health of the opening day roster have the Sox performed

  • Much better than you expected?

    Votes: 4 1.2%
  • A little better than you expected?

    Votes: 50 15.2%
  • About the same as you expected?

    Votes: 172 52.4%
  • A little worse than you expected?

    Votes: 97 29.6%
  • Much worse than you expected?

    Votes: 5 1.5%

  • Total voters
    328
  • Poll closed .

Archer1979

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Hoping to get healthier in the second half. Hoping Story, Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck all return and perform well. This team absolutely has a chance.
They have built themselves back into the conversation. All four teams ahead of them in the WC races are not would I have expected at pre-season :

Baltimore is playing very well this season. They're on a five game winning streak and could possibly catch TB if TB' slast week is indicative of the rest of their season.

Houston is playing at an 89 win pace which is surprising for an incumbent WS champion that was on a lot of lists for winning it all this year,

Toronto is playing at an 89 win pace which is surprising as I thought that this year they were going to take off.

NYY is treading water without Judge. I would have guessed that they were going right to the bottom of the standings after the Sox swept them. Somehow, they're holding on. They may still be sinking, but a lot slower than I expected.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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For the record, I dumped on them elsewhere, and I'm still not super impressed with their season so far, but I think we should include the Mariners in these scoreboard-watching conversations, even though they're two games behind Boston. They've underplayed their pythag/third order records, and they've got a GM who is pretty willing to make moves, sometimes big moves (like Luis Castillo). Would not be a surprise if they had a big second half, especially if Julio returns to his 2022 form. I'm not even ready to count out the Angels, either, they could pull a 2021 Braves and make several small moves that add up to replacing Trout (who definitely was not having as good of a year as Acuña was in '21), but I might be alone on that one.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Ok so the "unofficial" first "half" of the season is done.

AL East
TB 58-35 --
Bal 53-35 -2.5
Tor 50-41 -7.0
NY 49-42 -8.0
Bos 48-43 -9.0

AL WC
Bal 53-35 +5
Tor 50-41 --
Hou 50-41 --
NY 49-42 -1.0
Bos 48-43 -2.0
Sea 45-44 -4.0
LAA 45-46 -5.0

Thumbs Up:
- Yoshida
- Duran
- Bello
- Turner
- Casas (rising)
- Verdugo
- Devers (not exploding but still putting up solid power numbers)
- Martin
- Jansen
- Pivetta (has been great in relief)
- Paxton

Thumbs Down:
- Hernandez
- Arroyo
- Houck
- Whitlock
- Kluber
- Sale (pitched great but more injuries)

Hoping to get healthier in the second half. Hoping Story, Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, and Houck all return and perform well. This team absolutely has a chance.
Seems about right.
Arroyo seems to be hitting a hot streak recently (which always comes right before an injury).
I’d also add Wong to the Thumbs Up group. Not great but better than expected and if he can fix his K rate, he’s a top C.
Schreiber should be back after the ASB…. What’s the corresponding move there?
If this team gets fully healthy it’s dangerous.
 

JM3

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DFA Ort or Garza or Scott? Pablo Reyes is about to be odd-man out as he's ready to be activated from the IL and has no position so he could be traded or DFA as well.
This tweeting kind of makes me feel like Kiké is out & Reyes is taking his place?

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678053672708722688


View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678125980609572865

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678131470060191746


But Scott makes the most sense in terms of for the 26 to get Schreiber on. Then who you DFA out of Scott/Ort/Garza to get him on the 40 doesn't really matter.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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DFA Ort or Garza or Scott? Pablo Reyes is about to be odd-man out as he's ready to be activated from the IL and has no position so he could be traded or DFA as well.
Scott seems the obvious move for Schreiber. After that, I agree on Reyes- I like him, but he’s redundant to Chang. So he will get DFA’d, with no options left. Opens up a spot on the 40c which they could need if Story returns. Once Bleier is ready, I imagine Murphy or Walter gets sent down. Kluber or Houck could eventually replace the other?

Ultimately, doesn’t look like they will necessarily have to lose anyone valuable off the 40 man for a bit.
 

JM3

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How do you get Reyes on the roster, without losing one of Kike or Arroyo?
You don't. 1 of the 4 (including Chang) needs to be traded, DFA'd or put on the phantom IL I guess.

Technically they could also trade Duvall & make Kiké a full time OF.
 

TFisNEXT

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There’s no real use for Reyes if Chang is healthy and playing competent defense. Kike still has value at 2B and CF so you probably don’t want to DFA or trade him. Arroyo is the best 2nd baseman on the team (at least not counting Trevor Story) so he’s not the odd man out either.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This tweeting kind of makes me feel like Kiké is out & Reyes is taking his place?

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678053672708722688


View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678125980609572865

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1678131470060191746


But Scott makes the most sense in terms of for the 26 to get Schreiber on. Then who you DFA out of Scott/Ort/Garza to get him on the 40 doesn't really matter.
I'm not familiar with Henrique. Is he a beat guy who's in the clubhouse or someone who writes about the team from afar? Basically, is he just pulling Kike trade/DFA talk out of his ass or is there reason to believe he's heard something inside the walls of Fenway?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not familiar with Henrique. Is he a beat guy who's in the clubhouse or someone who writes about the team from afar? Basically, is he just pulling Kike trade/DFA talk out of his ass or is there reason to believe he's heard something inside the walls of Fenway?
I suspect it’s wishful thinking
 

JM3

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I'm not familiar with Henrique. Is he a beat guy who's in the clubhouse or someone who writes about the team from afar? Basically, is he just pulling Kike trade/DFA talk out of his ass or is there reason to believe he's heard something inside the walls of Fenway?
His main connections are with Worcester afaik.

All those guys are pretty fungible, so if they could get something for one of them, it makes sense.

It would be weird to send him to Boston if they plan on DFA'ing him, but they have a few days to see what shakes loose over the ASB.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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His main connections are with Worcester afaik.

All those guys are pretty fungible, so if they could get something for one of them, it makes sense.

It would be weird to send him to Boston if they plan on DFA'ing him, but they have a few days to see what shakes loose over the ASB.
I don't think it's that weird for him to go to Fenway today. An opportunity to meet with Cora and/or Bloom and discuss his future face to face would make sense. Also, I assume he has some sort of accommodations in the city so being there while/when they decide his fate might make it easier for him to pack up if necessary.
 

8slim

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The last 3 weeks have gone pretty well, all things considered. 14-8, now just 2 games back of the playoffs.

My minimum expectation for this season is that we be plausibly in the playoff hunt through Labor Day weekend, and we seem to be on track for that.

I don’t think we should be parting with anything meaningful at the trade deadline *unless* it’s for a player that can be a legit contributor in 2024 as well.

At the same time I really don’t want to be a seller unless this team collapses in the 2-3 weeks post ASB.

Let’s get guys back and see how it goes.
 

JM3

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I don't think it's that weird for him to go to Fenway today. An opportunity to meet with Cora and/or Bloom and discuss his future face to face would make sense. Also, I assume he has some sort of accommodations in the city so being there while/when they decide his fate might make it easier for him to pack up if necessary.
Who knows? He definitely crushed his rehab stint - 4 games, 1.186 OPS, 183 wRC+.

I'm guessing Bloom is gauging interest to see if any trade makes sense, but if not yeah, Reyes is probably the odd man out.

They're all pretty fungible in their own way, though.
 

m0ckduck

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Sox are currently two games out of a WC spot despite having spent 67 days (I think) in last place. Given the weird divisional alignment and concentration of talent in the AL East, there's probably a chance to set some kind of quirky "record" here. They've already spent more days in last place than the 73 Mets, the standard-bearer for cellar-dwelling team who went on to the pennant.
 

bosockboy

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The last 3 weeks have gone pretty well, all things considered. 14-8, now just 2 games back of the playoffs.

My minimum expectation for this season is that we be plausibly in the playoff hunt through Labor Day weekend, and we seem to be on track for that.

I don’t think we should be parting with anything meaningful at the trade deadline *unless* it’s for a player that can be a legit contributor in 2024 as well.

At the same time I really don’t want to be a seller unless this team collapses in the 2-3 weeks post ASB.

Let’s get guys back and see how it goes.
Schedule is pretty favorable too. Have 10 more against Oakland/KC for starters. Pretty sure we will be cautious buyers and go for it.

If we get Story/Houck/Whitlock back and add a starter, this team can be a really tough out in October with the way Paxton and Bello are pitching.
 

donutogre

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I have no expectations or idea on how the rest of the season will go, but I have to say I'm feeling a lot more positive about this team than I have at almost any time in the last season and a half.

The starting pitching remains a concern, though the emergency of Bello and great turnaround from Paxton have been super fun to watch. I really dislike the sloppy defense but I feel like we might be turning a corner from the times when we had too many guys playing out of position. The bullpen is what it is; they're often not super fun but there are at least enough solid pieces to hold on to games most of the time.

Only two games out of the wild card, I could see them putting together a good run at some point and making a move up the standings. It would be great to see them play more consistent and do better against weak teams / at home (as they did this weekend against Oakland). Playing meaningful ball in September would be a big step up over last season, so I'll take that, with a slight hope that they can do a little damage if they sneak in. Even just getting past the wild card play-in game would make the season a pretty major success to me.
 

joe dokes

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Schedule is pretty favorable too. Have 10 more against Oakland/KC for starters. Pretty sure we will be cautious buyers and go for it.

If we get Story/Houck/Whitlock back and add a starter, this team can be a really tough out in October with the way Paxton and Bello are pitching.
My biggest worry is the rest of July. While there's no real powerhouses (other than 2 with ATL), the pitching staff is going to have to keep getting by with the current 3-starter rotation, as it seems like there are no starting reinforcements likely before August. I dont know if they can get stretched thin like that for much longer.
 

JM3

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2022 through 91 games: 48-43
2023 through 91 games: 48-43

Now we just need to avoid the whole 8-19 collapse thing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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2022 through 91 games: 48-43
2023 through 91 games: 48-43

Now we just need to avoid the whole 9-18 collapse thing.
The collapse was already well in progress by game 91 last year. Things appear to be trending in a different direction this year.

2022 games 74 through 91: 6-12
2023 games 74 through 91: 10-8 (including 8 wins in last 9 games)

I chose that interval because after 73 games, the 2022 team was at its high water mark for the year at 11 games over .500.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They did what they absolutely had to do leading into the ASB. They'll have another opportunity in the immediate wake of the ASB. That stretch against lousy teams will determine the moves they make at the trading deadline. Rationally it would probably be wise to sell Paxton, but if they've moved up in the WC standings a bit, the temptation will be to add pieces instead and I wouldn't really blame them for that.
 

8slim

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My biggest worry is the rest of July. While there's no real powerhouses (other than 2 with ATL), the pitching staff is going to have to keep getting by with the current 3-starter rotation, as it seems like there are no starting reinforcements likely before August. I dont know if they can get stretched thin like that for much longer.
Agreed, and this is where Chaim opens himself up to legitimate critique. I worry that we’re going to tax the pen to the point of collapse *if* we don’t treat guys like Pivetta and Murphy as quasi-starters. We need to get 5 innings from those guys on the regular. If it comes in innings 2-6 so be it. But I don’t know if this pen can survive 3-4 weeks of what could be immense workload.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Agreed, and this is where Chaim opens himself up to legitimate critique. I worry that we’re going to tax the pen to the point of collapse *if* we don’t treat guys like Pivetta and Murphy as quasi-starters. We need to get 5 innings from those guys on the regular. If it comes in innings 2-6 so be it. But I don’t know if this pen can survive 3-4 weeks of what could be immense workload.
At least they can move Pivetta back into the rotation if necessary. This is where the Kluber/Eovaldi mess from the offseason really hurts.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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2022 through 91 games: 48-43
2023 through 91 games: 48-43

Now we just need to avoid the whole 8-19 collapse thing.
One game better than the 2012 Red Sox (47-45), three games worse than 2004 (51-42).

So, a lot of baseball left to be played- Red Sox teams with 47-51 wins at this time of the year have won <70 games, or the World Series, and everything in between.
 

8slim

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At least they can move Pivetta back into the rotation if necessary. This is where the Kluber/Eovaldi mess from the offseason really hurts.
They seem committed to not starting Pivetta. So if that’s the case then they need to be willing to let him go for 5 innings at a clip if he’s throwing well.

I just don’t think the pen can survive having 2 games in 5 where we’re pitching 5-6 guys a game. They’ll burnout.
 

donutogre

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They seem committed to not starting Pivetta. So if that’s the case then they need to be willing to let him go for 5 innings at a clip if he’s throwing well.

I just don’t think the pen can survive having 2 games in 5 where we’re pitching 5-6 guys a game. They’ll burnout.
Yup, this is the real thing that might sink the season. I with they had done a better job getting another starting pitcher we could count on — basically what they were hoping from with Kluber, but… did not get. With Kluber a non-factor, Sale down, and Pivetta banished to the bullpen, it’s a tough situation.

I definitely appreciate the good work from Pivetta out of the pen, but I do think it’s strange that they don’t at least give him another shot at starting given that he seems to be giving average or better results most times out lately.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Agreed, and this is where Chaim opens himself up to legitimate critique. I worry that we’re going to tax the pen to the point of collapse *if* we don’t treat guys like Pivetta and Murphy as quasi-starters. We need to get 5 innings from those guys on the regular. If it comes in innings 2-6 so be it. But I don’t know if this pen can survive 3-4 weeks of what could be immense workload.
I think they effective are using Pivetta as a quasi-starter. His last three outings have been 59, 67, and 76 pitches with 3 or 4 days of rest between. And between Murphy and Walter, they have the second bulk role covered.

By and large, the pen doesn't appear to be overly taxed so far. In the last 10 games (11 days), only two guys have gone on back to back days: Chris Martin twice and Joe Jacques once. Seems about normal for a bullpen. Now everyone gets four days off to reset. I think they could repeat the process again in the next 10-12 games or so, which gets them much closer to a return by at least one starter as well as a position where their strategy for the trade deadline is much clearer (and they could possibly acquire a starter if needed).
 

joe dokes

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They seem committed to not starting Pivetta. So if that’s the case then they need to be willing to let him go for 5 innings at a clip if he’s throwing well.

I just don’t think the pen can survive having 2 games in 5 where we’re pitching 5-6 guys a game. They’ll burnout.
This is where an offense clicking like it was earlier in the season would really help take some pressure off. Every 7th-9th inning that none of Martin, Jansen or Winckowski has to pitch is a bonus. This is where Schreiber, if he's completely recovered, will help immensely.
In the small picture, the easy-ish wins against Oakland gave way to 6 reasonably rested pitchers able to go yesterday.
 

JM3

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Agreed, and this is where Chaim opens himself up to legitimate critique. I worry that we’re going to tax the pen to the point of collapse *if* we don’t treat guys like Pivetta and Murphy as quasi-starters. We need to get 5 innings from those guys on the regular. If it comes in innings 2-6 so be it. But I don’t know if this pen can survive 3-4 weeks of what could be immense workload.
I'm not really that concerned about overwork because they have plenty of guys they can run out there in bulk relief roles that they can cycle through besides just Pivetta & Murphy...

Walter/Bear Claw/Kluber/Lamet/etc.

They can also rotate through the shorter guys like Jacques/Scott/Ort/Garza/Nunez etc.

The concerning thing, to me, is the lack of high leverage arms. The really good thing is that Schreiber is coming back soon & Joely has high leverage stuff if he's back to the way he was pitching after shifting his pitch mix in the 2nd half of last year.

Pushing Winck down the spectrum a bit to more of a 5th to 6th or 6th to 7th inning guy will help, too.

& I'm sure they would be happy for Pivetta/Murphy to pitch 7 innings if they're doing it well enough.
 

8slim

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I think they effective are using Pivetta as a quasi-starter. His last three outings have been 59, 67, and 76 pitches with 3 or 4 days of rest between. And between Murphy and Walter, they have the second bulk role covered.

By and large, the pen doesn't appear to be overly taxed so far. In the last 10 games (11 days), only two guys have gone on back to back days: Chris Martin twice and Joe Jacques once. Seems about normal for a bullpen. Now everyone gets four days off to reset. I think they could repeat the process again in the next 10-12 games or so, which gets them much closer to a return by at least one starter as well as a position where their strategy for the trade deadline is much clearer (and they could possibly acquire a starter if needed).
Agreed. I just hope this good fortune continues. A couple of rough bullpen games could really wreck things.

Im just beating the drum I’ve been pounding on for a couple weeks now. We need starter-like innings from a couple guys while the rotation is depleted.
 

8slim

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I'm not really that concerned about overwork because they have plenty of guys they can run out there in bulk relief roles that they can cycle through besides just Pivetta & Murphy...

Walter/Bear Claw/Kluber/etc.

They can also rotate through the shorter guys like Jacques/Scott/Ort/Garza etc.

The concerning thing, to me, is the lack of high leverage arms. The really good thing is that Schreiber is coming back soon & Joely has high leverage stuff if he's back to the way he was pitching after shifting his pitch mix in the 2nd half of last year.

Pushing Winck down the spectrum a bit to more of a 5th to 6th or 6th to 7th inning guy will help, too.

& I'm sure they would be happy for Pivetta/Murphy to pitch 7 innings if they're doing it well enough.
My concern is that among the guys you mentioned, we’re counting on pitching lousy pitchers or unknown entities a lot over the next few weeks.

Agree about the return of high leverage guys, though. That’ll help a lot.
 

joe dokes

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Last-place Sox are 9 GB TB.
Average GB of last place teams in the other divisions is 20. StL is "best" of the rest at 11.5. They're 38-52.
 

simplicio

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Joely looked pretty great in his return too. Obviously "against the A's" applies, but I'd written him off as a bust so if he can keep it up that's really good news.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Joely looked pretty great in his return too. Obviously "against the A's" applies, but I'd written him off as a bust so if he can keep it up that's really good news.
Nasty stuff and fun to watch too.
Adding him and Schreiber is huge but neither of them are bulk innings guys and until Sale, Houck and Whitlock get back they still will need Murphy and Walters.
 

walt in maryland

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Sox are currently two games out of a WC spot despite having spent 67 days (I think) in last place. Given the weird divisional alignment and concentration of talent in the AL East, there's probably a chance to set some kind of quirky "record" here. They've already spent more days in last place than the 73 Mets, the standard-bearer for cellar-dwelling team who went on to the pennant.
They are 2 games out of the SECOND (and third) wild card spots. Very much in it right now
 

Benj4ever

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This team reminds me of the old adage: "You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and you're never as bad as you look when you're losing." Only trouble is, there's a lot of wiggle room between the extremes.
 

E5 Yaz

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As pointed out in another thread, if the Sox up last in the division, they cannot qualify for the postseason even if they have a better record than the 3rd WC slot.
I know what you're trying to say here, but if they have a better record than the third WC slot, they won't finish last in the division
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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As pointed out in another thread, if the Sox up last in the division, they cannot qualify for the postseason even if they have a better record than the 3rd WC slot.
Well, obviously. How would a team finish in last place yet have the third best record among non division winners, when divisions each have five teams?
 

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I know what you're trying to say here, but if they have a better record than the third WC slot, they won't finish last in the division
It depends on what happens in the other divisions. In many ways, making the playoffs is not in their own hands right now.

The AL East is crazy this year and I certainly realize the insanity of having all 5 teams above .500, but that will be small solace if they miss the playoffs anyway.
 

TFisNEXT

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It depends on what happens in the other divisions. In many ways, making the playoffs is not in their own hands right now.

The AL East is crazy this year and I certainly realize the insanity of having all 5 teams above .500, but that will be small solace if they miss the playoffs anyway.
It's mathematically impossible for the Red Sox to have a better record than the 3rd WC and finish last in the division. By definition, if they finish last, it means 3 non-division winners in the AL East finished ahead of them....so those 3 teams would be the wildcards.
 

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It's mathematically impossible for the Red Sox to have a better record than the 3rd WC and finish last in the division. By definition, if they finish last, it means 3 non-division winners in the AL East finished ahead of them....so those 3 teams would be the wildcards.
Yes I understand that.

So what's more important is how the hell they're going to get out of last place in the division rather than noting the anamoly of being over .500 while being in 5th in the division. I'm seeing a lot of the latter talk and frankly it doesn't matter. They are playing good baseball now, they need to continue that and get some consistency going forward.
 

joe dokes

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Yes, I'm just saying people are harping on being above .500 despite being in last place and I'm saying it doesn't really matter.
It doesn't matter in the sense of making the playoffs this year. It does matter in the sense of winning 75 games and winning 88 games might say different things about the team.
 

TFisNEXT

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Yes I understand that.

So what's more important is how the hell they're going to get out of last place in the division rather than noting the anamoly of being over .500 while being in 5th in the division. I'm seeing a lot of the latter talk and frankly it doesn't matter. They are playing good baseball now, they need to continue that and get some consistency going forward.
Ok, yeah I agree. I was merely agreeing with E5Yaz that the "last place" talk is mostly irrelevant at this juncture and them finishing last obviously means they didn't have a good enough record to make the playoffs.

They are in last place by 1 game and 2 games out of WC3 and WC2 spots. So we know they are right in the thick of the race.

I honestly think they need to get a starting pitcher if they want to survive the race, but it is an admittedly tough proposition since a decent starter probably won't come super cheap, and you don't want to trade away any pieces that might prove valuable in 2024 or 2025 when the team is built to be more competitive in those seasons than 2023.
 

LogansDad

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Yes I understand that.

So what's more important is how the hell they're going to get out of last place in the division rather than noting the anamoly of being over .500 while being in 5th in the division. I'm seeing a lot of the latter talk and frankly it doesn't matter. They are playing good baseball now, they need to continue that and get some consistency going forward.
Wait, why isn't the fact that they are 2 games out of a playoff spot more important than being in last place?

People keep using last place like it is the holy grail of awful, and ignoring that there is a difference between "last place in the AL Central and 25 games out of a playoff spot" and "las place in the AL East and 2 games out of a playoff spot".

The team is competing for a playoff spot, right now, this year. In a year that has admittedly been very up and down, but has given us glimpses of a fun future, and potentially an unexpectedly fun (for some) 2023. And they are doing it at the same time that the minor leagues are looking like they are about to blow up with MLB ready talent in the next year or two.

But there is a contingent of people (not saying this means you, but... if the shoe fits) who are acting like they are completely non-competitive, miserable to watch, and have no hope of contention, because they are in "last place".

It's absolutely exhausting.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
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SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
But there is a contingent of people (not saying this means you, but... if the shoe fits) who are acting like they are completely non-competitive, miserable to watch, and have no hope of contention, because they are in "last place".

It's absolutely exhausting.
What's exhausting has been seeing them follow excellent stretches with poor ones all season long. One of the things I harped on going into this latest series was their inability to beat bad teams with any kind of regularity; this OAK series was really the first time they emphatically took care of business against a lousy team.

They have been most non-competitive until recently because they have been unable to display any consistency in playing good baseball. Until this recent run they were in every way a .500 mediocre team, and even after the run they are only 5 games over .500.

They have finished up the first half with a good run and no one is unhappy about that. They have a lot of work to do in figuring out the rotation going forward and working in guy as they return from the IL. I hope they can do it.