It's the halfway mark. Where we at?

[Rovin Romine]

The last 3 weeks have gone pretty well, all things considered. 14-8, now just 2 games back of the playoffs.

My minimum expectation for this season is that we be plausibly in the playoff hunt through Labor Day weekend, and we seem to be on track for that.

I don’t think we should be parting with anything meaningful at the trade deadline *unless* it’s for a player that can be a legit contributor in 2024 as well.

At the same time I really don’t want to be a seller unless this team collapses in the 2-3 weeks post ASB.

Let’s get guys back and see how it goes.

I'm pretty close to you on this. I was concerned that they'd split the recent two series (TEX/OAK) by having too many grab-bag start games. And while they almost fumbled a couple of games, they ultimately got the job done.

The way I see it, at the end of the season, you're either in the playoffs or not. If you're there, you've either got a team that can win a bunch of short series or you don't. I think the Sox have enough spread of quality talent on the 40 man, that if healthy, translates to a legitimately contending post-season team. (E.g., Trevor Story being healthy enough and non-rusty enough to hit in Sept./October. Houck/Sale the same on the pitching end.)

The 40 man talent isn't a just a bunch of over-achievers who are almost guaranteed to be wiped out in a short post-season series. Nor is it a '98 type team with a couple of isolatable giants surrounded by average players.

I think the real challenge will be getting to the playoffs, particularly:

a) the willingness to jettison the "name" guys while keeping the actual good ones, and​

b) folding in rehabbing players so they don't contribute to sinking the team while maybe getting back on track.​

Not that these can't be closely related. But as an example, I have no desire to watch Cora spend six more weeks trying to shoe-horn in the corpse of Enrique Hernandez because of some bullshit argument of "We can really turn it on in late August and early September if we have to," fueled by the fantasy of, "because when he's hitting he's so good, like he was that one time in his career."

(Not that I wouldn't be perfectly happy to see Hernandez immediately hit his way back to relevance, because. . .well, I would. But he's already had 300 at-bats to do so this year: he started adequate and has gotten worse and worse.)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Yeah, I think Hernandez is likely to be DFA'd. I know he's a name and has versatility (and this team loves versatility) but he plays many positions but all of them poorly, and he's not able to hit at all.

If they are serious about not only making a run for this year but also getting their ducks in a row for the future they will cut him loose.

 

[Benj4ever]

Wait, why isn't the fact that they are 2 games out of a playoff spot more important than being in last place?

People keep using last place like it is the holy grail of awful, and ignoring that there is a difference between "last place in the AL Central and 25 games out of a playoff spot" and "las place in the AL East and 2 games out of a playoff spot".

The team is competing for a playoff spot, right now, this year. In a year that has admittedly been very up and down, but has given us glimpses of a fun future, and potentially an unexpectedly fun (for some) 2023. And they are doing it at the same time that the minor leagues are looking like they are about to blow up with MLB ready talent in the next year or two.

But there is a contingent of people (not saying this means you, but... if the shoe fits) who are acting like they are completely non-competitive, miserable to watch, and have no hope of contention, because they are in "last place".

It's absolutely exhausting.

I'll double down for you on that one. The AL East has been a buzzsaw the last two years.

Record-wise, the biggest difference between this year and last year has been our play against the AL East (16-11 vs. 26-50). If we keep up our current pace in our division, I think we avoid the "cellar" and make the playoffs.

 

[joe dokes]

(Not that I wouldn't be perfectly happy to see Hernandez immediately hit his way back to relevance, because. . .well, I would. But he's already had 300 at-bats to do so this year: he started adequate and has gotten worse and worse.)

This perfectly describes the Hernandez c.2023 experience. Along with "the only middle infielder to stay relatively healthy." Bad combo.

 

[Fishy1]

Wait, why isn't the fact that they are 2 games out of a playoff spot more important than being in last place?

People keep using last place like it is the holy grail of awful, and ignoring that there is a difference between "last place in the AL Central and 25 games out of a playoff spot" and "las place in the AL East and 2 games out of a playoff spot".

The team is competing for a playoff spot, right now, this year. In a year that has admittedly been very up and down, but has given us glimpses of a fun future, and potentially an unexpectedly fun (for some) 2023. And they are doing it at the same time that the minor leagues are looking like they are about to blow up with MLB ready talent in the next year or two.

But there is a contingent of people (not saying this means you, but... if the shoe fits) who are acting like they are completely non-competitive, miserable to watch, and have no hope of contention, because they are in "last place".

It's absolutely exhausting.

I was having the same problem, and then I remembered that their anger is their problem, their misery is their problem, regardless of if they're a dope or a member who's been on here for twenty years. Just put them on ignore and the board is ten times more usable and less frustrating.

The fact is that this team is right there, and a wild card spot is for the taking.

 

[Archer1979]

Yeah, I think Hernandez is likely to be DFA'd. I know he's a name and has versatility (and this team loves versatility) but he plays many positions but all of them poorly, and he's not able to hit at all.

If they are serious about not only making a run for this year but also getting their ducks in a row for the future they will cut him loose.

Yeah. He peaked in the 2021 playoffs and has fallen off a cliff this year.

What's difficult about playing an arm-chair GM right now is trying to figure out how can these guys can improve to not only make the playoffs but be factors in it. You can't really slug your way through the playoffs as pitching and defensive liabilities are magnified. Its also the two things that the Sox are severely lacking in.

The low hanging fruit is pitching of course and that can be improved upon by jettisoning some of the flotsam and picking up a starter or two (easier said than done) . But there's really no way to improve the defense without sacrificing offense. The Sox have only two positions that you can change without cutting deep into the offense, SS and 2B. Everyone else in the starting nine are pretty much untouchable.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The thing with Kike is that he has historically had long stretches of playing poorly, juxtaposed with stretches where he’s great. His career is all over the place. He’s not especially old, so if he’s healthy, I imagine it’s difficult to just give up on him, especially if it’s to make room for someone like Chang or Reyes who doesn’t have the potential upside as Kike.

I guess that’s the challenge as a GM; when do you decide when to move on from a player who you think may have something left?

 

[TFisNEXT]

The thing with Kike is that he has historically had long stretches of playing poorly, juxtaposed with stretches where he’s great. His career is all over the place. He’s not especially old, so if he’s healthy, I imagine it’s difficult to just give up on him, especially if it’s to make room for someone like Chang or Reyes who doesn’t have the potential upside as Kike.

I guess that’s the challenge as a GM; when do you decide when to move on from a player who you think may have something left?

Kike is a good defensive outfielder, so that alone (plus his unpredictable streaky hitting that you mentioned) is enough reason to hold onto him IMHO. When Trevor Story hopefully returns, you can use Kike to spell Duran in CF against tough lefties or Arroyo at 2nd base when he needs a breather (Kike has been fine at 2B defensively).

I think Reyes is the odd man out if we assume Chang is the best defensive shortstop on the team who is healthy.

 

[BaseballJones]

Kiké is at the point where all he provides is superlative defense in CF. That's it. He's very subpar defensively at SS. And his bat has been terrible for two straight seasons. About every third year he hits well.

Year: OPS+
2015: 131
2016: 64
2017: 92
2018: 117
2019: 87
2020: 81
2021: 108
2022: 74
2023: 62

If that was a graph, it would look like an EKG. So next year he should be pretty good!

But now is the time to trade him to a contending team that needs a veteran, that could use a really good defensive outfielder or jack-of-all-trades, one that has championship experience (which he does). The Sox wouldn't get tons in return, but that's ok. They just need to get SOMETHING and clear a roster spot. Surely someone out there would be willing to part with something semi-decent to get Kiké.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And the Sox are not in any kind of current position to be patient with him to see if he gets hot again. They are clawing at the edges of a playoff spot and cannot afford his sub-par play, they simply don't have the cushion.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The thing with Kike is that he has historically had long stretches of playing poorly, juxtaposed with stretches where he’s great. His career is all over the place. He’s not especially old, so if he’s healthy, I imagine it’s difficult to just give up on him, especially if it’s to make room for someone like Chang or Reyes who doesn’t have the potential upside as Kike.

I guess that’s the challenge as a GM; when do you decide when to move on from a player who you think may have something left?

I was going to (yet again) advocate a trade for Montgomery but just saw he had a hamstring pull.

 

[8slim]

I thought for sure that Marwin Gonzales was going to be much better than Kike when we acquired both for 2021. I’ll forever enjoy the memory of Kike playing like Barry Bonds for a short burst on 2021.

However… I was really hoping he’d be nothing more than a role player this season. And I really hope they dump him ASAP. He stinks. Keeping him around to kill the lineup for 3 months on the off chance he has a great 2 weeks is silly.

 

[Rovin Romine]

And the Sox are not in any kind of current position to be patient with him to see if he gets hot again. They are clawing at the edges of a playoff spot and cannot afford his sub-par play, they simply don't have the cushion.

This is it exactly. The margin is very thin, so you can't spend too many ABs at rehabbing players or developing for next year (unless you fall out of it of course.)

I think in terms of upside/potential post-season impact:

1) Trevor Story gets as many ABs as he needs (unless he has completely collapsed, which I doubt.) SS/2B is the weakest area, so it's not like there's a ton of opportunity cost in doing that.​

​

2) Duvall. . .trickier. Good Duvall is an asset, but he's been cold since his return. I'd give him sporadic time, with an eye toward a possible trade/cut. I'd guess he's more likely to provide offense than Hernandez.​

​

3) Hernandez. Absent injury to an OF, he should be one of the most cuttable on the 26/40. At this point we need a middle IF spot more should Story need to have a caddy/innings eating player when he returns. Which brings us to:​

​

4/5) Chang and Reyes. Chang may technically have upside. . .but I wouldn't use either as anything other than a 40man placeholder, or the possible defensive IF replacement candidate. However, I'd want to bobble them to see which might work best as the 3rd MI behind Story and Arroyo.​

​

6) Kluber. I'd rehab as an innings-eater-only (and hopefully we won't need a lot of those appearances) and trade/DFA if there's a glimmer of improvement. Again, a phoenix-like resurgence to even bullpen competence might be something. . .but unless he turned into a + bullpen arm, he's not a chip to hang onto for any reason.​

​

7) Bleier. Also shitty. Like Kluber, also not likely to be a post-season asset or part of the long term plan. But there's recent success there and he does log clean outtings now and then. Even so, I drop him for a healthy AAA arm at this point - assuming we get one. (Like if it was a choice between Kelly and Bleier.) How many mop up men do you need?​

Who else?

Pivetta - I'd hold onto him at this point, esp. with the starter injuries.​

 

[Coachster]

The thing about Kike and a possible DFA is this: What if Pablo Reyes is just a better player than Kike? I'm pretty sure he is. Dumb stat, but did you know that Reyes has twice as many MLB innings as an outfielder than at short? Having Kike in center is *slightly* better than Duvall/ Duran or Refsnyder, but the offensive black hole he creates makes it not worth all that much. if we needed an extra right handed bat in the outfield, Reyes can do it (as can Alfaro), and he can also serve as a pinch runner, as lets face it, we aren't loaded with much team speed past Duran.

Keep Pablo, dump Kike. At some point, Story will return, and that'll be that.

 

[JM3]

Yeah. He peaked in the 2021 playoffs and has fallen off a cliff this year.

What's difficult about playing an arm-chair GM right now is trying to figure out how can these guys can improve to not only make the playoffs but be factors in it. You can't really slug your way through the playoffs as pitching and defensive liabilities are magnified. Its also the two things that the Sox are severely lacking in.

The low hanging fruit is pitching of course and that can be improved upon by jettisoning some of the flotsam and picking up a starter or two (easier said than done) . But there's really no way to improve the defense without sacrificing offense. The Sox have only two positions that you can change without cutting deep into the offense, SS and 2B. Everyone else in the starting nine are pretty much untouchable.

Curious how much of the defensive issues are related to those 2 positions to begin with so went to Fangraphs for easy reference.

They have the Red Sox ranked as the 29th best defense (ahead of only the White Sox) so it seems like a reasonable metric.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=21,d

C - 17th

Wong has been the better defensive player by a little, so him playing more should only improve that ranking (he's played about twice as many innings ad Reese so the disparityisn't as great as it looks). The fact that Alfaro didn't rank negative yesterday makes me question the validity of these ratings, at least for this position, though.

Wong 3.0
McGuire 1.1
Hamilton 0.2
Alfaro 0.1

1B - 26th

Dalbec 0.0
Turner -0.5
Casas -9.1

There's no real reason Casas should be a terrible fielder, even if he has limited range. As he gains more confidence at the plate hopefully it translates to the field. Turner has been relatively competent in comparison.

2B - 28th

More Reyes = more better defense? & then oh course integrating Story back into the mix...

Story put up a 7.1 last season at 2B.

Arroyo has also been adequate. Valdez is the main thing dragging this down.

Chang 0.7
Reyes 0.3
Turner 0.0
Dalbec 0.0
Arroyo 0.0
Kiké -0.6
Wong -0.7
Valdez -3.7

SS - 27th

This seems like a super easy problem to solve...

Chang 3.5
Valdez 0.0
Dalbec -0.1
Reyes -0.3
Arroyo -0.7
BLIZZARD -0.8
Kiké -5.7

3B - 24th

With Devers it kind of is what it is. Maybe he's been pressing, but Justin Turner is really what's brought this ranking down in his 40 innings. Arroyo, Dalbec, Reyes & Chang have played a grand total of 17 innings between them.

Arroyo 0.3
Dalbec 0.0
Reyes 0.0
Chang -0.2
Turner -1.1
Devers -1.4

RF - 11th

Verdugo has been pretty good, I guess? He's been far less negative on a per inning basis than the other guys as he's played about 7x as many innings in right as everyone else combined. Not a problem.

Duran 0.0
Refsnyder -0.3
Duvall -0.5
Tapia -0.5
Verdugo -0.9

CF - 26th

This one is kind of surprising. Feels like Duran has played pretty good CF this year. Turns out Duvall has been the main problem in his 204 innings.

Refsnyder 0.1
Duran 0.0
Tapia -0.1
Kiké -0.3
Duvall -2.9

LF - 13th

A bit higher than one would expect with Yoshida as the primary left fielder. Seems most teams aren't very good at left field defense, though, & LFsnyder has been.

Refsnyder 1.6
Tapia 0.6
Duran -0.8
Yoshida -4.9

So...conclusion...Kiké has been dragging down both our defense & our offense at 3 different positions (although less than Valdez at 2B & less than Duvall in CF)...

& maybe it's not surprising that Pablo Reyes played 3 of his 4 rehab starts at 2B.

 

[moondog80]

I think he took one for the team playing all those innings at SS when he had no business being there, so it would kind of suck to DFA him. But in the words of Don Draper, that's what the money is for. Do what you gotta do, Chaim.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I do like to have Kiké as a late inning defender in CF though….

 

[Archer1979]

Curious how much of the defensive issues are related to those 2 positions to begin with so went to Fangraphs for easy reference.

Thanks for this. Yoshida at -4.9 while the Sox are only 13th is a bit surprising. But playing LF at Fenway is the easiest of the three OF positions. Yoshida may improve as the Wall has a tendency to both Giveth and Taketh away.

Casas should improve with more experience. Wade Boggs got better, with a ton of effort, as time went on so hopefully Casas follow the same route. Same thing with Duran and Verdugo, who has improved this season.

Problem with all of these guys is that they could/should improve with time and none of them are going anywhere.

 

[NomahNotRamon]

I think I'm missing the bigger picture w/ the "DFA Kiké" discussion... the thinking is that doing so would enable us to keep Yu and Refsnyder on the active roster when Story returns and we prefer that?

 

[LogansDad]

I do like to have Kiké as a late inning defender in CF though….

I do think that one thing that we miss when discussing numbers and on-field effectiveness here, too, is that these guys are people, and Kiké has been part of the "leadership" core of this team since before spring training. He was, by some accounts, the reason that Justin Turner signed here, and is one of the veterans who has been here the longest as well. Like many, I want to see him playing less, but I worry what DFAing him will do to the clubhouse.

And, of course, there will be the argument that these guys are professionals and get paid a lot of money so they should get over it. But again... people.

It's a tough needle to thread, I think, especially for this specific trade deadline.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The thing about Kike and a possible DFA is this: What if Pablo Reyes is just a better player than Kike? I'm pretty sure he is. Dumb stat, but did you know that Reyes has twice as many MLB innings as an outfielder than at short? Having Kike in center is *slightly* better than Duvall/ Duran or Refsnyder, but the offensive black hole he creates makes it not worth all that much. if we needed an extra right handed bat in the outfield, Reyes can do it (as can Alfaro), and he can also serve as a pinch runner, as lets face it, we aren't loaded with much team speed past Duran.

Keep Pablo, dump Kike. At some point, Story will return, and that'll be that.

Interesting thought. They also have control of Reyes beyond this year. So if it’s even close, perhaps you choose Reyes. I’m beginning to think they may just dump Kike for whatever they can get.

 

[JM3]

Thanks for this. Yoshida at -4.9 while the Sox are only 13th is a bit surprising. But playing LF at Fenway is the easiest of the three OF positions. Yoshida may improve as the Wall has a tendency to both Giveth and Taketh away.

Casas should improve with more experience. Wade Boggs got better, with a ton of effort, as time went on so hopefully Casas follow the same route. Same thing with Duran and Verdugo, who has improved this season.

Problem with all of these guys is that they could/should improve with time and none of them are going anywhere.

The good thing is, a defense of...

Wong/Turner/Reyes/Chang/Devers/Refsnyder/Duran/Verdugo is actually an above average defense.

The bad news is that both Casas & Yoshida can't DH at the same time, but the defense isn't quite as dire as it looks.

 

[JM3]

I do think that one thing that we miss when discussing numbers and on-field effectiveness here, too, is that these guys are people, and Kiké has been part of the "leadership" core of this team since before spring training. He was, by some accounts, the reason that Justin Turner signed here, and is one of the veterans who has been here the longest as well. Like many, I want to see him playing less, but I worry what DFAing him will do to the clubhouse.

And, of course, there will be the argument that these guys are professionals and get paid a lot of money so they should get over it. But again... people.

It's a tough needle to thread, I think, especially for this specific trade deadline.

I would prefer they not DFA anyone & they simply trade whoever they can get value from out of Kiké/Arroyo/Reyes/Duvall.

The Red Sox are about $6m+ under the tax threshold & trading Kiké while eating most of his salary may provide at least a flier prospect, while sending a different message to the team than a DFA would, & shouldn't lead to bad blood at all if he's sent to a contender.

Thx for all you've done for the franchise. We love you so much, but we couldn't possibly do without Random DSL pitcher X. We hope to play against you in the World Series blah blah blah.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Interesting thought. They also have control of Reyes beyond this year. So if it’s even close, perhaps you choose Reyes. I’m beginning to think they may just dump Kike for whatever they can get.

While the control part with Reyes is intriguing, middle infield is what they have an overabundance of on the 40-man roster already with Hamilton, Valdez, and Rafaela all in Worcester at the moment (and Story coming). So it's not like having Reyes beyond this season is solving any problems. It might be creating another given the 40-man crunch coming this winter.

They traded for him when they were desperate for a warm body. He performed admirably but not so well that he should be considered indispensable. It is close, and I expect they'll move Reyes and maybe get something more for him than Kike would bring back.

 

[joe dokes]

While the control part with Reyes is intriguing, middle infield is what they have an overabundance of on the 40-man roster already with Hamilton, Valdez, and Rafaela all in Worcester at the moment (and Story coming). So it's not like having Reyes beyond this season is solving any problems. It might be creating another given the 40-man crunch coming this winter.

They traded for him when they were desperate for a warm body. He performed admirably but not so well that he should be considered indispensable. It is close, and I expect they'll move Reyes and maybe get something more for him than Kike would bring back.

The "keep Kike" argument is that middle infield defense has nearly derailed the team. Story (and Chang before him) *should* make SS a positive. I *think* Kike remains a better defensive 2Bman than Arroyo. (who has also never managed to stay healthy for more than a month at a time). So if there's any "defense first" angle to the roster moves, Kike stays.
And what @LogansDad said.

 

[JM3]

While the control part with Reyes is intriguing, middle infield is what they have an overabundance of on the 40-man roster already with Hamilton, Valdez, and Rafaela all in Worcester at the moment (and Story coming). So it's not like having Reyes beyond this season is solving any problems. It might be creating another given the 40-man crunch coming this winter.

They traded for him when they were desperate for a warm body. He performed admirably but not so well that he should be considered indispensable. It is close, and I expect they'll move Reyes and maybe get something more for him than Kike would bring back.

Hamilton not being on the 40-man next year by 1 method or another also makes a lot of sense. & it looks like they're casually trying to convert Valdez to 3B.

But yeah, there may not be room for Reyes on the 40 next year, but he may have some trade value in the off season whereas Kiké obviously wouldn't.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Hamilton not being on the 40-man next year by 1 method or another also makes a lot of sense. & it looks like they're casually trying to convert Valdez to 3B.

But yeah, there may not be room for Reyes on the 40 next year, but he may have some trade value in the off season whereas Kiké obviously wouldn't.

Reyes was acquired for cash. Even if he sticks through the end of the season, I can't see where he's going to accumulate much more value than that (maybe a worthless prospect?). Especially if he's strictly going to be a part-time utility player. Those types of players are going to be a dime-a-dozen in the off-season.

 

[JM3]

Reyes was acquired for cash. Even if he sticks through the end of the season, I can't see where he's going to accumulate much more value than that (maybe a worthless prospect?). Especially if he's strictly going to be a part-time utility player. Those types of players are going to be a dime-a-dozen in the off-season.

Cash is more than they can get for a guy not under contract, & it's nice to have depth pieces if they allow you to do other things, like maybe move Arroyo for value or Chang for value if they make a more expensive short-term MI addition.

Him being under control isn't a huge thing, but if it's a literal tie, it's certainly a tiebreaker.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I would prefer they not DFA anyone & they simply trade whoever they can get value from out of Kiké/Arroyo/Reyes/Duvall.

The Red Sox are about $6m+ under the tax threshold & trading Kiké while eating most of his salary may provide at least a flier prospect, while sending a different message to the team than a DFA would, & shouldn't lead to bad blood at all if he's sent to a contender.

Thx for all you've done for the franchise. We love you so much, but we couldn't possibly do without Random DSL pitcher X. We hope to play against you in the World Series blah blah blah.

So much agree with the bolded. I'm pretty sure that the Red Sox could do one of two things:

A) Eat the full freight in terms of salary for Hernandez and Duvall and get something at least marginally interesting (think of what Escobar netted in return).
B) Trade them for a proverbial sack of baseballs and someone else eats the salary, giving them more money below the tax to play with to make additions.

Though I've been saying this for a while now, but I want those guys (well, Arroyo, Hernandez and Duvall) gone for a long time simply to give more playing time to younger players.

Not only has Duvall been atrocious since returning from the injury (relative to the 2023 Red Sox) but each game he plays he is taking away valuable reps for someone that is looking more and more like a real core piece for the 2025-2030 Red Sox in Jarren Duran. Having him out there hurts both the 2023 team and the future.

Hernandez has just been terrible, and while it's certainly possible prospects could perform worse, I think it's also quite possible they could perform better. He is, again, someone that I think hurts both the 2023 team and the 2025-2030 team (opportunity cost) each inning he plays.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Incredible. The nerds nailed this one. His addition has been a significant plus.
Yoshida Zips preseason projection: .305/.372/.498
Yoshida currently: .316/.382/.489

 

[pk1627]

This team needs a SP, improved MI, a catcher to give Wong some days off, and a rh power bat.

MI (Story), catcher (McGuire) and rh bat (Duvall) all involve return to form of injured players. To me, the most essential and toughest acquisition is the SP. Sox need a Peavy or an Eovaldi.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This team needs a SP, improved MI, a catcher to give Wong some days off, and a rh power bat.

MI (Story), catcher (McGuire) and rh bat (Duvall) all involve return to form of injured players. To me, the most essential and toughest acquisition is the SP. Sox need a Peavy or an Eovaldi.

Or a couple of Sale/Whitlock/Houck to return to form as well.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

This team needs a SP, improved MI, a catcher to give Wong some days off, and a rh power bat.

MI (Story), catcher (McGuire) and rh bat (Duvall) all involve return to form of injured players. To me, the most essential and toughest acquisition is the SP. Sox need a Peavy or an Eovaldi.

Or a couple of Sale/Whitlock/Houck to return to form as well.

Literally the one thing I do not want the Sox doing for the trade deadline is relying on their acquisitions being the return of their own injured players. If that is "the plan", I'd far rather just sell literally everyone on a one year deal and punt whatever playoff odds they'd otherwise have.

From a purely theoretical standpoint, I'd still want them to sell. I don't see a team as presently constructed (even with the injured players ostensibly returning) having much chance of making it to the ALCS so if there were absolutely zero "real world" considerations to taken into account, I'd sell. However...


There ARE real world situations that have to be taken into account, most notably the only one I'm concerned about are the long term mindset / culture of the core of the 2025-2030 Red Sox, and I understand that as well. Or, put another way, I don't think it's smart when the Sox have become in contention for a playoff spot where 6 of their top 8 players (in terms of bWAR) all have term to turn around and sell around them. I think it's ever worse to take that and do "nothing" to bolster the roster by JUST waiting for players to come back.

Deals have started to be made already, and since we have about a week with no baseball to talk about, it's as good a time as any to make a call.

I don't think in any way, shape or form they should be moving core prospects for rentals, but I think they should absolutely go out and try to add several pieces around the edges with prospect redundancy. Then, if Bloom has any confidence in his own prospect evaluation - which I have to assume he does, and the Red Sox do too - go out and add pieces with some term for legitimate prospects.

Obviously they're not moving Mayer, (and they shouldn't), and I'm not saying to go out and be super aggressive a la San Diego last season, but pick one or two from the Yorke, Romero, Bonaci, Meidroth grouping to move. Three of the organization's top 4 prospects are "primary" centerfielders (at least per SoxProspects) so chose one of Bleis, Rafaela and Anthony to move.

Depending on which ones, packaging 2 or 3 of those pieces and I think you'd get a pretty interesting starting pitcher that at least has control through the 2024 season to add to the rotation. If you were talking "Bleis and Yorke" then you're probably getting a pretty good SP with term for those two, but make a call on some of your prospects and add a real MLB piece to the rotation that gives you another real presence with Bello at the top of the rotation not just for the rest of this year, but next year as well.

I'm clearly not saying "Luis Castillo" type move from last year where Seattle had to give up a ton, but more talking something along the lines of the Yankees acquisition of Montas from Oakland last season or the Phillies' acquisition of Kyle Gibson in 2021 or the Jays acquisition of Berrios, also in '21, and hope for something a lot closer to "Berrios" than the others.

 

[JM3]

Anthony & Bleis project more to be corner outfielders. & trading our high upside prospects that are further away does nothing to clear up our 40 man crunch & will almost certainly turn into a regrettable decision.

I may be irrationally attached to our prospects, but there are not very many pitchers I would trade multiple of those guys for. I mean, maybe Mikey Romero but he been injured this season & won't have much value right now, & I'm not a huge Meidroth guy, although I think he'll be a solid MLB player some day.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Anthony & Bleis project more to be corner outfielders. & trading our high upside prospects that are further away does nothing to clear up our 40 man crunch & will almost certainly turn into a regrettable decision.

I may be irrationally attached to our prospects, but there are not very many pitchers I would trade multiple of those guys for. I mean, maybe Mikey Romero but he been injured this season & won't have much value right now, & I'm not a huge Meidroth guy, although I think he'll be a solid MLB player some day.

Sure, but moving guys just to clear the 40 man roster crunch likely isn't getting you an SP with term that reasonably projects as a 2/3 either.

FWIW, I'm certainly on board with the idea of moving 40 man crunch guys and getting whatever that gets you - I just don't think it'd be much at all (lets call it MIke Clevinger). However they need to do that regardless, because it's just sound business. In my opinion to NOT do that would be an epic failure akin to last year's trade deadline. Also, to be clear - even "just" that is an infinitely better plan than "just wait for guys to come back" and do nothing approach. I'd rather them have a fire sale than take the "do nothing but wait" approach, and it's not close.

However, with the way Bello has developed - and since one can reasonably look now at most of the line up core next year being in place (C - Wong; 1b - Casas, MI 1 - Story; 3b - Devers; LF - Yoshida; CF - Duran, RF - Verdugo), I'd REALLY like to go out and acquire another top end of the rotation starter to go with Bello. Because whether they should (or shouldn't) I think most of us agree that they're NOT going to spend on any of Nola, Giolito or Urias in free agency.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Reyes vs Kike debate for "odd man out" is an interesting debate that is closer than I originally thought the more I read posts on here.

I'm still favoring keeping Kike though because he's a plus outfield defender which is something this team is in short supply of. Duvall is subpar defensively in CF, we already know about Yoshida, and Reyes is average at best (he grades out to slightly below average in his 355 career OF innings at the major league level)...Reyes is better defensively in the infield, but Chang coming back along with the eventual return of Trevor Stroy makes him a bit superfluous.

Kike has been terrible with the bat this year but I wouldn't expect him to continue with a .600 OPS...a regression closer to a .700ish OPS would make him fairly useful as a bench piece who can play good outfield defense and competent 2B defense. Once you throw in the "cluibhouse" factor, it seems easier to call Reyes the odd man out unless there's something I'm missing with the bat he can do....I did notice he had a pretty good 2022 in AAA, but the rest of his career doesn't really strike me as an offensive weapon waiting to break out.

With the emergance of Duran's bat, I feel like it's more imperative to move Duvall. As one poster mentioned above, Duvall taking playing time from Duran is hurting the 2023 team more than Kike being on the roster is with Chang back at SS.

 

[JM3]

Sure, but moving guys just to clear the 40 man roster crunch likely isn't getting you an SP with term that reasonably projects as a 2/3 either.

FWIW, I'm certainly on board with the idea of moving 40 man crunch guys and getting whatever that gets you - I just don't think it'd be much at all (lets call it MIke Clevinger). However they need to do that regardless, because it's just sound business. In my opinion to NOT do that would be an epic failure akin to last year's trade deadline. Also, to be clear - even "just" that is an infinitely better plan than "just wait for guys to come back" and do nothing approach. I'd rather them have a fire sale than take the "do nothing but wait" approach, and it's not close.

However, with the way Bello has developed - and since one can reasonably look now at most of the line up core next year being in place (C - Wong; 1b - Casas, MI 1 - Story; 3b - Devers; LF - Yoshida; CF - Duran, RF - Verdugo), I'd REALLY like to go out and acquire another top end of the rotation starter to go with Bello. Because whether they should (or shouldn't) I think most of us agree that they're NOT going to spend on any of Nola, Giolito or Urias in free agency.

They have lots of prospects who are real prospects who need to be on the 40 man roster next year - including some I consider basically untouchable like Luis Perales. It's not just chaff.

Maybe if you suggested some pitchers you wanted to trade for I'd be less opposed to it, but next year we have Bello/Sale/Whitlock/Houck/Crawford under contract & about $80m to spend, so I don't have much appetite to trade really high ceiling prospects who could provide an absolute ton of surplus value for people who aren't really, really good & project to continue to be really, really good.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I do think that one thing that we miss when discussing numbers and on-field effectiveness here, too, is that these guys are people, and Kiké has been part of the "leadership" core of this team since before spring training. He was, by some accounts, the reason that Justin Turner signed here, and is one of the veterans who has been here the longest as well. Like many, I want to see him playing less, but I worry what DFAing him will do to the clubhouse.

And, of course, there will be the argument that these guys are professionals and get paid a lot of money so they should get over it. But again... people.

It's a tough needle to thread, I think, especially for this specific trade deadline.

I think this is something people say a lot. I mean, Christian Vazquez was supposed to lead to everyone going on a hunger strike, and we just didn't really see it.

 

[LogansDad]

I think this is something people say a lot. I mean, Christian Vazquez was supposed to lead to everyone going on a hunger strike, and we just didn't really see it.

Normally I am 100% with you on this, but the fact that Turner appears to be a major part of the leadership on this team as well, and Kiké by many accounts was the biggest reason for him signing here, gives me pause.

Not saying DFAing him is the wrong move, I just don't really envy Chaim if he needs to do it.

 

[chawson]

The pitch to teams interested in Duvall is that he’s obviously not this bad, but still working his way back (maybe too quickly!) from a nasty injury that clearly affected his swing, and unable to accrue the PAs necessarily to get up to speed with the post-hype prospect suddenly figuring it out and seizing the job.

I think he will figure it out, but I think you have to trade him this year. The gap between his perceived value (based on April alone) and his value to us going forward is too great. Even if he finds his April form, he’s not starting over Duran now, and we don’t need two bat-first short-side platoon outfielders.

OTOH, Kiké seems broken, a mess at the plate and no one is giving up anything for him, but his 2B/CF versatility does have value. There’s probably a time you DFA him down the line when more healthy players return (or if we fall entirely out of it, a la Plawecki), but I don’t think it’s now.

 

[joe dokes]

I think this is something people say a lot. I mean, Christian Vazquez was supposed to lead to everyone going on a hunger strike, and we just didn't really see it.

I dont know if it makes a difference that the 2022 team was already about done when CV was traded. Ultimately, this is one of those things that management likely has some handle on.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I fully trust that you know more about the Red Sox minor league system than I do, but there are going to be decisions to be made. I'm saying, make them now and trade those guys for MLB caliber "might be good" at a bare minimum, I think we tend to agree there. I'll let you tell me whom the "expendable" 40 man crunch guys are - but trade them for something. That's kind of what Bloom did for Schwarber, no? (Edit - I couldn't find your post about the 40 man crunch easily, but I meant that with no snark - I think you have a good grasp on players that are probably expendable, so move a few of them, at a minimum).

Guys I'd look at trading top prospects for (and MIIIIIIGHT) be reasonable would be Burnes (but they're you're probably talking Yorke, Bleis and one other at minimum to get them to even take your phone call), so that's probably not realistic. After that, Cease would be big target. I think he's struggled / inconsistent enough that he'd be attainable for prospects, but talented enough that you're looking at someone whom would be easily a top half of our rotation starter for the next several years. I know we disagree here, but I'd be interested in Bieber - but I'll just admit we can agree to disagree there rather than clog up the board.

Next name would be Ranger Suarez - he'd obviously cost less, but this would be a target for me as well. I'd also love to see if they could "buy low" on FPeralta from the Brewers. I think any / all of those guys would cost at least one of our 2-6 prospects, if not more. Though again, I'd like to see Bloom make a call on players he believes in vs those he doesn't and make a move. I mean, at one team we were all about Manny Margot, Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada, right?

 

[RS2004foreever]

Re Kike about a month ago I was at a game and he made an excellent play getting to a ball that went up the middle. He then got up and threw the ball into the dugout. He looked right at Turner after the play (Turner was at first), and flipped his glove while shaking his head. The expression made me think he was a snake bit, which happens in life. Things start to go wrong and you can't seem to stop it. It was pretty clear he and Turner respected each other.

If you are selling others, sell Duvall. If not I would keep him

 

[Rovin Romine]

Normally I am 100% with you on this, but the fact that Turner appears to be a major part of the leadership on this team as well, and Kiké by many accounts was the biggest reason for him signing here, gives me pause.

Not saying DFAing him is the wrong move, I just don't really envy Chaim if he needs to do it.

I dont know if it makes a difference that the 2022 team was already about done when CV was traded. Ultimately, this is one of those things that management likely has some handle on.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying it 100% won't be a thing. . .but even if Hernandez is a good teammate (and I haven't heard that he isn't), that won't always be the same as someone who is the sort of heart-and-soul of the club.

 

[YTF]

I fully trust that you know more about the Red Sox minor league system than I do, but there are going to be decisions to be made. I'm saying, make them now and trade those guys for MLB caliber "might be good" at a bare minimum, I think we tend to agree there. I'll let you tell me whom the "expendable" 40 man crunch guys are - but trade them for something. That's kind of what Bloom did for Schwarber, no? (Edit - I couldn't find your post about the 40 man crunch easily, but I meant that with no snark - I think you have a good grasp on players that are probably expendable, so move a few of them, at a minimum).

Guys I'd look at trading top prospects for (and MIIIIIIGHT) be reasonable would be Burnes (but they're you're probably talking Yorke, Bleis and one other at minimum to get them to even take your phone call), so that's probably not realistic. After that, Cease would be big target. I think he's struggled / inconsistent enough that he'd be attainable for prospects, but talented enough that you're looking at someone whom would be easily a top half of our rotation starter for the next several years. I know we disagree here, but I'd be interested in Bieber - but I'll just admit we can agree to disagree there rather than clog up the board.

Next name would be Ranger Suarez - he'd obviously cost less, but this would be a target for me as well. I'd also love to see if they could "buy low" on FPeralta from the Brewers. I think any / all of those guys would cost at least one of our 2-6 prospects, if not more. Though again, I'd like to see Bloom make a call on players he believes in vs those he doesn't and make a move. I mean, at one team we were all about Manny Margot, Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada, right?

Why would DD send Suarez to Boston when Philadelphia is 1/2 out of the 3rd WC position and just 3 1/2 out of the top spot? And Milwaukee (Burnes and Peralta) is in the same exact position as Philly.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying it 100% won't be a thing. . .but even if Hernandez is a good teammate (and I haven't heard that he isn't), that won't always be the same as someone who is the sort of heart-and-soul of the club.

The one thing in Bloom's favor if Kike is sent packing is it can easily be spun as a contending team trying to improve. Per Fangraphs, Kike has been the worst regular starting player in baseball this year. His -1.2 WAR is last among qualifying players. Contrast it to the Vazquez move which in isolation looked like a white flag kind of trade of a good player (1.7 fWAR before the trade) to a contender. And it was a double whammy because they were effectively being told their season was hopeless (even if that wasn't really the front office's view). I assume that the easy spin on a Kike dump is he isn't pulling his weight and they need to improve his spot in order to still contend. His friends should be professional enough to recognize and respect that.

That said, I still think Kike stays and Reyes is out because sentiment will win out in this case.

 

[JM3]

I fully trust that you know more about the Red Sox minor league system than I do, but there are going to be decisions to be made. I'm saying, make them now and trade those guys for MLB caliber "might be good" at a bare minimum, I think we tend to agree there. I'll let you tell me whom the "expendable" 40 man crunch guys are - but trade them for something. That's kind of what Bloom did for Schwarber, no? (Edit - I couldn't find your post about the 40 man crunch easily, but I meant that with no snark - I think you have a good grasp on players that are probably expendable, so move a few of them, at a minimum).

They traded an A-ball pitcher who had elbow tendinitis at the time (Aldo Ramirez) who has barely pitched since the trade (7.2 innings of Rookie Ball in '21).

A comparable pitcher from their system now is probably like an Angel Bastardo, who is 40-man eligible this season, but shouldn't need protecting. Ramirez was 20 & I don't believe would have needed to be protected until maybe this year or next.

This was my wayyyyyy too long post on the 40-man roster for next year:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/40-man-turnover-prediction-thread.37777/#post-5626604

Guys I'd look at trading top prospects for (and MIIIIIIGHT) be reasonable would be Burnes (but they're you're probably talking Yorke, Bleis and one other at minimum to get them to even take your phone call), so that's probably not realistic.

Yeah, I like Burnes, but I'm not remotely interested in something like that for 14 months of control. I could do Yorke+ others In less excited about, but not moving Bleis there. & the Brewers probably aren't in full on sell mode.

After that, Cease would be big target. I think he's struggled / inconsistent enough that he'd be attainable for prospects, but talented enough that you're looking at someone whom would be easily a top half of our rotation starter for the next several years.

Cease is ~fine, & controlled for 3 more years, but his control isn't really where you would want it to be & his '22 definitely was not particularly sustainable/repeatable.

Underlying contact #s are pretty good. His best pitch is his slider but he seems to throw it way too often for it to be sustainable? (over 40%). If he could gain control & continue to work on his changeup, he could go up another level, though. So I guess if the price wasn't exorbitant.

I know we disagree here, but I'd be interested in Bieber - but I'll just admit we can agree to disagree there rather than clog up the board.

True. Plus are they selling?

Next name would be Ranger Suarez - he'd obviously cost less, but this would be a target for me as well.

I don't see anything in particular about his profile that I love. His stuff seems pretty fringy with the exception of his curveball. Plus, are they selling?

I'd also love to see if they could "buy low" on FPeralta from the Brewers.

Freddy is interesting as his home run rate seems utterly unsustainably high. But he's another guy who's control you'd have to fix. How low are we buying here, & again, are the Brewers selling?

I think any / all of those guys would cost at least one of our 2-6 prospects, if not more. Though again, I'd like to see Bloom make a call on players he believes in vs those he doesn't and make a move. I mean, at one team we were all about Manny Margot, Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada, right?

December 2016 Sale with 3 years of cheap control was on a whole other stratosphere of pitcher than everyone discussed here. But yeah it worked out.

 

[Benj4ever]

December 2016 Sale with 3 years of cheap control was on a whole other stratosphere of pitcher than everyone discussed here. But yeah it worked out.

Agreed. I'm not a fan of linear thinking, either. Just because Moncada and Kopech have had numerous injury issues (and Margot just isn't very good), doesn't mean that it will happen that way this time around.

 

[nvalvo]

Margot’s had a 9.7 fWAR career. He’s pretty good.

 

[Benj4ever]

Margot’s had a 9.7 fWAR career. He’s pretty good.

IDK. When I look at his numbers, all I can think is that he's not a guy I want starting on my team....In any case, I'm just arguing with myself at this point!