40-man Turnover Prediction Thread

How many will be returning to the 40-man roster + 60-man IL?

  • 41 or more — run it back!

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 36 to 40 — changes around the margins.

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • 31 to 35 — pretty much the same group.

    Votes: 20 21.3%
  • 26 to 30 — notable changes.

    Votes: 55 58.5%
  • 21 to 25 — lotta new faces.

    Votes: 12 12.8%
  • 16 to 20 — substantial turnover.

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • 11 to 15 — extreme turnover.

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • 6 to 10 — radical rebuild.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5 or fewer — everything must go!

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .

nvalvo

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I started writing this in the "What does 2023 look like?" thread, but remembered that more threads are often better. So consider this a spinoff from that thread.

Some of the predictions that people are making in that thread suggest a vision of a 2023 Red Sox roster that is pretty similar to the current one. I am not sure that I share that expectation. We have a number of key departing players, a ton of money to spend in Free Agency, and for the first time in awhile a bit of a prospect hoard that might make unambiguously buy-type trades possible.

I also realized that I wasn't actually sure anyone really expected the same group. Maybe it's one poster suggesting retaining Wacha or Eovaldi, somebody else suggests bringing back JD, and a third person is proposing Refsnyder at DH: those aren't necessarily the same people.

So here's a discussion question: how much 40-man roster turnover do we expect? Not how much would we aim for if we were running Baseball Operations, but how much we expect Chaim and BOH and Raquel and the rest of the gang to change things.

Below I have listed the 45 players on the 40-man roster plus the 5 players currently on the 60-day IL. I've organized them a bit under a few headings; quibbles as to headings are reasonable, especially since I am not crystal clear about a few edge cases. How many of these guys do we expect to be on the 40-man + 60-man IL as of Opening Day 2023? We can check back when the team heads North and see how we did.

Some are obvious. We presume Chris Sale will begin next season on the 60-man IL *rimshot*.

This list is as of the last day of the regular season, because that's what baseball-reference.com had. But two players have already been removed from the roster: Abraham Almonte and Eduard Bazardo. It is not inconceivable that either or both could be back — decent-but-not-great RHRPs like Bazardo ping pong on and off rosters all the time — but I think it's safe to say that the bidding begins at 2.

(To be clear, I don't think the extreme choices are especially likely, but it seemed like the best way to organize it.)

Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts

Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte
 
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nvalvo

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My prediction is 25 players returning, and so my vote was just barely in "lotta new faces," one away from "notable changes."
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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minor quibble- but I believe both Bogaerts and Sale are technically currently under contract, with the ability to opt out, right? (And clearly one of them will and one of them won’t…)
 

nvalvo

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minor quibble- but I believe both Bogaerts and Sale are technically currently under contract, with the ability to opt out, right? (And clearly one of them will and one of them won’t…)
Ah, yes. Quite true! I was spending all of this time trying to figure out e.g. Franchy's situation, and went and miffed the most obvious two.
 

chawson

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Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts

Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte
I think we’d have to add Hamilton too, right?

I went with notable changes. (I think Darwinzon Hernández, Houck, McGee, Danish, Seabold, Pivetta, Paxton, Bazardo, Strahm, Chang, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo, Downs, Duran, Pham, J.D. Martinez and Almonte are gone.)
 
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Pat Spillane

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Feb 12, 2021
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I think we’d have to add Hamilton too, right?

I went with notable changes. (I think Darwinzon Hernández, Houck, McGee, Danish, Seabold, Pivetta, Paxton, Bazardo, Strahm, Chang, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo, Downs, Duran, Pham, J.D. Martinez and Almonte are gone.)

Whoa what moves are you expecting Houck,Pivetta,Duran all gone??
 

simplicio

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There's also a question of how many spaces you need to protect rule 5 guys. Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter and Eddinson Paulino are most likely being added, and cases could be made for Chris Murphy, Wikelman Gonzales, Thaddeus Ward and Brainer Bonaci.
 

chawson

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Whoa what moves are you expecting Houck,Pivetta,Duran all gone??
It's best not to get into it. Basically, I'm expecting a lot of moves and a few surprises, and I'm guessing at those surprises. I'm not even that sure Verdugo stays.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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There's also a question of how many spaces you need to protect rule 5 guys. Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter and Eddinson Paulino are most likely being added, and cases could be made for Chris Murphy, Wikelman Gonzales, Thaddeus Ward and Brainer Bonaci.
On Bonaci, seems like if he could stick at SS (31 games at Carolina) he'd be vulnerable to some other team scooping him up via Rule V -- good plate discipline at a tough defensive position. I notice that once he got to A-ball they played him at 2B (57 games) , 3B (10 games) and DH (11 games), so he may not be worth a roster spot to another team.
 

brandonchristensen

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It's best not to get into it. Basically, I'm expecting a lot of moves and a few surprises, and I'm guessing at those surprises. I'm not even that sure Verdugo stays.
I really hope this isn’t true.

It’s hard to continue to root strictly for the laundry. The impermanence of not having a running cast of characters has made the team identity incredibly bland lately.

2018 was so exciting - and the two years later, the Killer B’s are gone and we have had a revolving door of a pitching staff.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I went 21 to 25 but didn't think about it too hard. I just have a bad feeling in my gut Raffy will also be traded, leading to that higher end of turnover.
 

simplicio

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On Bonaci, seems like if he could stick at SS (31 games at Carolina) he'd be vulnerable to some other team scooping him up via Rule V -- good plate discipline at a tough defensive position. I notice that once he got to A-ball they played him at 2B (57 games) , 3B (10 games) and DH (11 games), so he may not be worth a roster spot to another team.
Yeah, Bonaci is just a long way from the majors, and every team is dealing with a rule 5 crunch this winter, so I can see the Sox feeling like it's safe to risk leaving him off. Same situation with Gonzalez and Paulino, but my guess is Paulino looks like enough of a prospect to protect.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Without naming names, I expect 1-2 new SPs, 2-3 new RPs/swingmen, 1 MI, 1 OF/DH/1B type, 1 corner OF, 1 true UTIL, 3 Minor Leaguers added. I guess that’s the 26-30 option.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Almonte also a free agent.

I voted substantive turnover, though maybe some of that is wishful thinking.

From the list above, I think the following are goners no matter what:

Pitchers:
Darwinzon Hernández
Ryan Brasier
Josh Taylor
James Paxton
Bazardo
Matt Strahm

Position Players:
Yu Chang
Eric Hosmer
Bobby Dalbec
Ronaldo Hernández
Franchy Cordero
Almonte
JD Martinez
Tommy Pham

That's 14 right there, which drops the 40 to 26 really fast. From there, it's not hard to see a few more guys get moved or nontendered. Duran, McGee, Downs, Bogaerts, Mata, Danish, Ort, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, and Refsnyder all feel like strong candidates to move on in one way, shape, or form. Maybe Kiké, too.

The team has a ton of money to spend and a lot of dreck on the roster. That seems like a recipe for a big overhaul IF Henry, et al, are serious about competing in the next couple of seasons. If they are trying to bide time until 2024 or 2025 and the next predicted window of opportunity for a long run as contenders, then it will most likely be somewhere between notable changes and the same group.
 
Last edited:

Ganthem

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Almonte also a free agent.

I voted substantive turnover, though maybe some of that is wishful thinking.

From the list above, I think the following are goners no matter what:

Pitchers:
Darwinzon Hernández
Ryan Brasier
Josh Taylor
James Paxton
Bazardo
Matt Strahm

Position Players:
Yu Chang
Eric Hosmer
Bobby Dalbec
Ronaldo Hernández
Franchy Cordero
Almonte
JD Martinez
Tommy Pham

That's 14 right there, which drops the 40 to 26 really fast. From there, it's not hard to see a few more guys get moved or nontendered. Duran, McGee, Downs, Bogaerts, Mata, Danish, Ort, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, and Refsnyder all feel like strong candidates to move on in one way, shape, or form. Maybe Kiké, too.

The team has a ton of money to spend and a lot of dreck on the roster. That seems like a recipe for a big overhaul IF Henry, et al, are serious about competing in the next couple of seasons. If they are trying to bide time until 2024 or 2025 and the next predicted window of opportunity for a long run as contenders, then it will most likely be somewhere between notable changes and the same group .
Paxton will probably trigger his four million dollar player option and why would Kike go anywhere after they signed him to a one year extension?
 

simplicio

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I think prognosticating one way or another on Taylor is fruitless, we simply don't have the data on his injury.

Hosmer is free and useful unless they're getting something of value back. Also you're ditching all three backup 1B, what's your plan there?

Strahm seems worth keeping to me, he's been really good for us.

Ronaldo Hernandez only leaves if they grab a new C. For now, he's necessary depth.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Paxton will probably trigger his four million dollar player option and why would Kike go anywhere after they signed him to a one year extension?
This would be great but some posters made pretty compelling arguments that some other teams will offer more
 

chawson

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If he does, it'll be in a trade. I don't see him as an untouchable.
If we’re out of it at the deadline, maybe, but otherwise this is the sort of thing that would generate a ton of ill will. You can’t sign a guy to an under-market one-year deal one month before he hits free agency and then immediately trade him.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If we’re out of it at the deadline, maybe, but otherwise this is the sort of thing that would generate a ton of ill will. You can’t sign a guy to an under-market one-year deal one month before he hits free agency and then immediately trade him.
That's fair. And I added him as an afterthought. But Bronson Arroyo could tell you something about signing a team-friendly deal to stay that didn't work out the way he'd hoped. Different times, different scenario, but not unheard of for this ownership.
 

nvalvo

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Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs

Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts


Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte
An update: 35 remain.
 

Super Nomario

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It is wild how many position players they have subtracted without adding anyone other than Yoshida. By my count they have only 16 position players on the 40-man, and some of them (David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela) have never played above AA and are not serious threats to make the opening day roster. More moves have to be coming, but some of the holes here are pretty large for this point of the offseason.
 

JM3

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This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.
 

Auger34

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This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.
That’s a crazy stat in and of itself. What makes it absolutely insane is that one of the 3 players is Ryan fucking Brasier
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.
Is that really so out of the ordinary for a team in transition under a new GM? Especially in the age of free agency? How many of the 2006 Red Sox (Theo's 4th year) were on the 40-man when he was hired after the 2002 season? As far as I can tell, it was Mirabelli, Nixon, Ramirez, Varitek, and Wakefield. Guys like Youkilis, Delcarmen, Lester and Papelbon were in the organization but not on the 40-man yet. Heck, Mirabelli had been traded away and brought back so he probably should have an asterisk.
 

Rovin Romine

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Is that really so out of the ordinary for a team in transition under a new GM? Especially in the age of free agency? How many of the 2006 Red Sox (Theo's 4th year) were on the 40-man when he was hired after the 2002 season? As far as I can tell, it was Mirabelli, Nixon, Ramirez, Varitek, and Wakefield. Guys like Youkilis, Delcarmen, Lester and Papelbon were in the organization but not on the 40-man yet. Heck, Mirabelli had been traded away and brought back so he probably should have an asterisk.
Yep. It looks like 10 or so of the current 40 man were already in the minors when Bloom took over.
 

JM3

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Are we objecting to my use of the word "only"? They got rid of 2 of the 5 yesterday, dropping the # from 5 to 3.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Are we objecting to my use of the word "only"? They got rid of 2 of the 5 yesterday, dropping the # from 5 to 3.
More quibbling with the idea that it's something noteworthy at all (tbb345 called it a "crazy" stat). Rosters turn over.
 

JM3

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More quibbling with the idea that it's something noteworthy at all (tbb345 called it a "crazy" stat). Rosters turn over.
Yeah, it's more interesting to me than outlandish. Bloom will basically have full ownership of the team by next year in terms of credit/blame, with the exception of Sale.
 

JM3

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I've been tempted to start a 2024 thread for a while because I'm honestly much more interested in how we get from here to there then what we do for the rest of the season. Kind of seems like we've hit a critical mass of injuries/failure & aren't quite built up to deal with it. We could still turn it around, but I think the primary focus at the trade deadline should be the future as we have a roster crunch upcoming.

We currently have 40 people on the 40-man roster, 7 people on the 60-day DL who would have to be re-added to the 40 when healthy, & a glut of players who will be Rule V eligible if not added to the 40.

So I thought this would be the best place to kick off this discussion.

Will divide this by position in general order of how much it like the guy (not scientific) & will put their status in parens. People who play multiple positions will be arbitrarily placed at one position of my choosing. Where applicable, will include the SoxProspects ranking.

Starting Pitchers
Bello
Whitlock
Perales (Rule V eligible) (#8)
Sale (60)
Houck
Drohan (Rule V eligible) (#5)
Paxton (FA)
Wikelman (Rule V eligible) (#12)
Crawford
Walter (#13)
Mata (#9)
Van Belle (Rule V eligible) (#59)
Bastardo (Rule V eligible) (#36)
Liu (Rule V eligible) (#39)
Pivetta
Kluber (team option)

Breakdown:
8 starters on the 40 & signed for next year

6 guys who I consider intriguing enough to mention as potentially needing Rule V protection.

2 guys not under contract for next year

The no-brainers, unless some crazy trade comes up are Bello/Whitlock/Sale/Houck/Crawford (5)

Jury is out on Walter/Mata, but probably too early to give up on either. I don't see room on the 40 for Pivetta so I would trade him if anyone wants him. Obviously not picking up Kluber's team option.

Of the Rule V guys:

- Drohan is a no-brainer add.
- Perales is the most talented pitcher in the organization...he's 20 & in A ball... but I would not take that risk, at all.
- Wikelman is also extremely talented, but is in A+. I don't think they need to protect him, but I guess that depends on whether he gets promoted & how he does in AA.
- Van Belle is 26 & it's about time he gets promoted to AAA. He's pitched really well & I think would need to be protected or traded.
- Bastardo is in a similar bucket to Wikelman with slightly worse stuff. Don't think he needs protecting.
- Liu had a 7 inning no hitter in AA this year, but doesn't seem that special & probably doesn't need protecting.

So there's no way they can keep 14 of these guys, & they probably want to either add Paxton back or bring in 1 higher end starter, so lots of decisions to make/culling to do.

Relief Pitchers
Martin
Jansen
Schreiber (60)
Murphy (#20)
Fernandez (Rule V eligible) (#27)
Winckowski
Bernardino
Mills (60)
Kelly (60)
Zeferjahn (Rule V eligible) (#50)
Joely (team option)
Jacques
Sherriff
Garza
Scott
Ort
Bleier (60 - Team option)

Breakdown:
13 relievers under contract for next year
2 team options
2 potential Rule V guys

The no-brainers barring trade to me are Martin/Jansen/Schreiber/Murphy/Winck (5)

If Bernardino keeps pitching this way I would want to keep him around, & Mills/Kelly could be useful if healthy.

The Jacques/Sherriff/Garza/Scott/Ort group seems entirely fungible barring some sort of breakout & I wouldn't even necessarily expect many of them to be on the 40 at the end of the year.

Ryan Fernandez is an impact relief arm who I expect to be part of our bullpen plan for next year at the latest, & Zejerjahn is wild af, but strikes out hitters at a ridiculous rate. Prob not worth the spot.

I haven't really done work on people in the system who aren't newly eligible, but A.J. Politi (#45) was drafted & returned this season & has been pretty good & may also be able to be a useful bullpen piece next year.

Bleier I assume is gone. Joely is probably gone... but I still believe in his stuff if he gets healthy.

So maybe 9-10 guys?

Catchers
Wong
McGuire
Scott (Rule V eligible) (#35)
Hamilton, C

Wong/McGuire are no-brainers. They were the only 2 on it until McGuire injury & they added Caleb Hamilton who is entirely fungible & I expect to be off the 40 as soon as McGuire is back.

Erro & Marrero are both decent but I don't think need protecting so didn't put them on the list. Roberto Hernandez was already eligible I believe. Stephen Scott is the only guy I'd actually be concerned about, though. He seems like he might be a real player who needs protecting. Currently hitting well in Worcester.

So probably 3?

First Base
Casas
Turner (player option will decline)
Dalbec

I would say I don't really see room for Dalbec... but it's not like they have a bunch of 1B floating around, especially if Turner opts put as expected.

If we don't re-sign Turner himself, another RHH1B-3B who is not Dalbec makes sense. Gotta keep that seat warm for Blaze.

But yeah, 2 or 3?

Second Base
Valdez (#10)
Bonaci (Rule V eligible) (#17)
Paulino (Rule V eligible) (#11)
Arroyo
Sogard (Rule V eligible) (#58)

Short Stop
Story
Mondesi (60 - free agent)
Hamilton (#19)
Chang
Reyes

Lot of overlap between these 2 groups so will just do them together.

Story is a no-brainer & I don't see them just dropping Valdez or Hamilton, although I could see them trading either. Same with Arroyo. Chang & Reyes are kinda fungible.

I don't think Bonaci (20) or Paulino (21) are close enough to need to protect buuuuut idk. Sogard seems like someone you probably wouldn't tie up a 40-man spot on, but he's pretty close to ready to play ~meh major league baseball.

Mondesi is a free agent after the year. Seems like a pretty clear area where they may want to grab a short term upgrade unless Valdez takes a jump.

Probably 5 or 6 guys total?

Third Base
Devers
Lugo (Rule V eligible) (#24)
Koss (Rule V Eligible) (#38)

Feel like you keep that Devers guy. Lugo may be someone you may look to trade. Koss is kind of a low-ceiling utility guy.

I guess 2?

Left Field
Yoshida
Refsnyder
Abreu

Center Field
Rafaela (#3)
Duran
Hernandez (FA)
Duvall (FA)

Right Field
Verdugo
Fitzgerald (Rule V eligible) (#56)

Will do the outfielders together. Probably keep the 6 guys already on the 40 & add 1 more RHH? So 7?

So we're somewhere around 45 guys without really adding in free agency, where we'll have a lot of money to spend.

To the extent that consolidation trades or trades for further away prospects are possible, they'll probably want to do that - & the trade deadline may be the best place to start figuring out next year's problems.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I've been tempted to start a 2024 thread for a while because I'm honestly much more interested in how we get from here to there then what we do for the rest of the season. Kind of seems like we've hit a critical mass of injuries/failure & aren't quite built up to deal with it. We could still turn it around, but I think the primary focus at the trade deadline should be the future as we have a roster crunch upcoming.

-- snip --

To the extent that consolidation trades or trades for further away prospects are possible, they'll probably want to do that - & the trade deadline may be the best place to start figuring out next year's problems.
Not sure if this is necessarily in response to your (very helpful!) post, but I'll put it here anyway: One difference between this and last year, it strikes me, is that there's much less uncertainty about next year, or, maybe phrased a different way, most of the significant pending FAs lift right out (Hernandez, Turner, Duvall, Kluber) (I didn't look at the bullpen, whoops). Seems to me they could probably just grab another 1B/DH type (Evan Longoria?) and another bench multi-position IF (Jonathan Schoop? Josh Harrison? These aren't exciting names, but that's the point) and then be done with it from an offensive perspective. Probably should upgrade the rotation beyond the expected Veteran on a One-Year Deal, though.
 

simplicio

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The no-brainers, unless some crazy trade comes up are Bello/Whitlock/Sale/Houck/Crawford (5)

Jury is out on Walter/Mata, but probably too early to give up on either. I don't see room on the 40 for Pivetta so I would trade him if anyone wants him. Obviously not picking up Kluber's team option.
I like those five guys, but I'm not sold on relying on all of them at once. This is the area I see them most likely upgrading; I think they try for Yamamoto, and if they can't get him they look at Montgomery maybe?
 

Niastri

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I like those five guys, but I'm not sold on relying on all of them at once. This is the area I see them most likely upgrading; I think they try for Yamamoto, and if they can't get him they look at Montgomery maybe?
I agree, relying on a 5 guy rotation to be healthy and effective all year is way under-engineering. I imagine adding a top of the rotation free agent for an arm and a leg is probably on the docket. I also imagine a middle of the order bat if they can find one that makes sense.

We score enough runs, but we aren't good enough at run prevention, either with our defense or pitching. Story and a top notch defensive SS would help solve that "bad defense" issue. Continued progress from our huge number of young pitchers would help the pitching issue, but nothing beats plugging in a great pitcher with only money.
 

JM3

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I like those five guys, but I'm not sold on relying on all of them at once. This is the area I see them most likely upgrading; I think they try for Yamamoto, and if they can't get him they look at Montgomery maybe?
I just meant that those 5 guys are going to be on the 40 unless they get traded for something good.

I didn't mean to imply that they shouldn't pick up at least 1 high end starter.

Oh, yeah, I actually said that lol

So there's no way they can keep 14 of these guys, & they probably want to either add Paxton back or bring in 1 higher end starter, so lots of decisions to make/culling to do.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I like those five guys, but I'm not sold on relying on all of them at once. This is the area I see them most likely upgrading; I think they try for Yamamoto, and if they can't get him they look at Montgomery maybe?
I'd personally like to make a push for either Giolito or Montgomery this season (should be relatively low cost for a 2 month rental) and try to extend them before FA... AND add Yamamoto...

Sale (will likely pitch 2 months max)
Yamamoto
Giolito/Montgomery
Bello
Whitlock
Crawford/Houck

They don't really have any top tier AA or AAA starters that look ready to jump right in to the rotation like Bello was this season and I'm still not sold on Crawford/Houck as starters... Sale being healthy again.... they, IMO, need to add two starters to get 6 to start the season off and then hope that Winchowski, Drohan can be deep depth with Murphy too. Looks like Mata won't be a realistic option to even consider...
 

simplicio

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I'd personally like to make a push for either Giolito or Montgomery this season (should be relatively low cost for a 2 month rental) and try to extend them before FA... AND add Yamamoto...
Looking at their system, STL doesn't really have anyone they need to protect this winter; would love to see us swing a deal to get Montgomery and DeJong while clearing out some of our rule 5 guys.
DeJong is cheap this year (9m, but only 4.3 counts against the threshold), then has club options for 24-25 (12.5m & 15m). He's a good defensive SS who can hit decently, and that contract seems perfectly structured to complement the waiting for Mayer game we're all playing.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I thought Story was the SS next year? Not sure I see the point of taking on DeJong, who would be an expensive luxury next year, or a rental like Montgomery.
 

chrisfont9

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I'd personally like to make a push for either Giolito or Montgomery this season (should be relatively low cost for a 2 month rental) and try to extend them before FA... AND add Yamamoto...

Sale (will likely pitch 2 months max)
Yamamoto
Giolito/Montgomery
Bello
Whitlock
Crawford/Houck

They don't really have any top tier AA or AAA starters that look ready to jump right in to the rotation like Bello was this season and I'm still not sold on Crawford/Houck as starters... Sale being healthy again.... they, IMO, need to add two starters to get 6 to start the season off and then hope that Winchowski, Drohan can be deep depth with Murphy too. Looks like Mata won't be a realistic option to even consider...
I wonder if we will see the Sox strike very early in free agency? The Rule V draft is in early December, so if you want to know how many lottery tickets you should keep, maybe determine first if you're bringing in a top free agent pitcher who's also relatively young, in which case you can take more Rule V exposure risks in that part of the roster.
 

simplicio

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Story is only at SS until Mayer's an everyday player too though. So you're looking at a stopgap 2B instead in that case, and there's not really anyone who might be available at the deadline who improves that spot while offering control for next year and potentially alleviating the 40 man crunch.

I don't think 12m for a good defensive starting SS is an "expensive luxury" either; that's a good rate and he's a controlled and tradeable asset if Mayer hits the ground running, and before that point he's a clear upgrade in one of our few areas of need. We've seen Story be really excellent at 2B and I'm more than happy for him to stay there. Go into the season with Story, DeJong and Arroyo as backup, trade either of the latter if Mayer forces the issue, and PDJ has that extra year of control if anything goes wrong with Mayer's development.
I thought Story was the SS next year? Not sure I see the point of taking on DeJong, who would be an expensive luxury next year, or a rental like Montgomery.
 

MetSox1

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Cot's is showing Paxton with a club option for ~14MM for next year? Is that correct? If so, he's a lock to come back. Below is assuming that.

Ohtani (50MM)
Sale (27.5MM)
Paxton (14MM)
Bello (1MM)
Whitlock (3MM)
Houck (2MM)

That is an elite six man rotation injury risk five man rotation with Pivetta (7MM) as the emergency sixth, rolling in at ~90 million. Sale is only on the books for another year, his money coming off along with this offseason budget surplus helps support Ohtani longterm. I mean its crazy, but is it that crazy? I'm willing to let the OF be a little lefty heavy (or deal Verdugo) to make this happen. Really, I'm ok with it. Spend 35 mil on the bullpen (mostly Kenley and Martin combining for about 24) and that leaves ~100MM for hitting and staying under the cap. That's tight, but Ohtani is paid for...

Ohtani (above)
Devers (27.5)
Story (22.5)
Yoshida (18)
Verdugo (9)

No one else is setup to make more than like 3MM (Arroyo) and be back. If I can find a taker for Verdugo I probably do make a run at signing Turner, who is a good fit and a righty bat, and would setup the middle of the order with three lefties and two righties.

So again... am I crazy? Maybe. But fun to dream. And that rotation.... tasty

Edit: I had the Paxton contract wrong. No option. So throw out the entire dream... We are an SP arm short for sure here.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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The Sox had a two year, $26M option on Paxton which they declined, that then left Paxton with a 1 year, $4M option which he accepted. So, he’s a FA after the year.