Let's face it: there are 3 trains of thought regarding the penalty Goodell will levy on the Pats:
1.) Those that believe Goodell will only levy a penalty if the Wells report finds evidence of either tampering or outright carelessness by the Pats, and that the evidence needs to be more than the sole fact that the balls were underinflated at halftime. Otherwise, Goodell risks a fight with Kraft. Exactly what "more evidence" means in this context is subject to debate as well.
2.) Those that believe Goodell will levy a token penalty at the very least, no matter the findings in the Wells report, because there will be an underlying presumption that the Pats were at the very least negligent. Most people in this camp believe that Kraft will not fight over a token fine or loss of 7th round draft pick in a future draft.
3.) Those that believe Goodell will come down hard on the Pats (aka, suspensions and loss of early draft picks), because it's important for Goodell to appease the Jets fans in the league office. And that Kraft is powerless to appeal even in the event that the team is completely exonerated by the Wells report. Most people in this camp would also agree that the chances of the Wells investigation exonerating the Pats are remote.
We're probably at the point where everyone's mind is made up, and all we can do is speculate the various reasons why we think one outcome is more likely than the others. While we all have varying opinions on how Goodell will react based on past history, none of us really can make an educated guess what the Wells report will contain and how it will position the team's guilt or innocence, and exactly how much influence the report will have on the league's final decision.
This latest flurry of posts was caused by Florio, who's just trying to stay relevant by stirring the shit pot during a quiet period; and the recent punishments to the Falcons and Browns, cases that cannot be logically connected to this situation. Unfortunately, unless and until some new information gets released by a credible source, the situation above will remain the status quo. Not sure what else to say, to be honest.