#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[TheoShmeo]

As cynical as I am about Goodell, I think even he has to make the penalty a function of the level of proof.
 
With only circumstantial evidence, I have trouble seeing something like a suspension.   
 
I'm thinking his thought process going into the Wells investigation was something along the lines of:
 
- Wells finds direct evidence of wrong doing: Severe penalty
 
- Wells finds direct evidence that someone other than the Pats messed with the balls: No penalty, exoneration
 
- Wells finds no direct evidence of wrong doing but also can offer no plausible explanation for why the Pats' balls were more deflated than the Colts' balls: Penalty, but not nearly as severe as the first scenario

 

[Ed Hillel]

To protect himself. To look like they did something.  For the same reason they hired a bunch of doctors to mumble about concussions.  For the same reason they hired a bunch of women to occupy the domestic violence space. So when asked "what have you done?" he can say, "this, this and this." 

 
But the public doesn't care about this when it comes to the Patriots, they just want punishment. He could have accomplished that better without a Wells report.

"I've read the exhaustive report." and [what Theo said]: "there is no explanation other than the Pats did the deflating given the difference between the Pats and Colts PSI levels" and res ipsa.

 
So he's going to say this, even if the report says otherwise!? Come on, we may be cynical of Goodell, and with good reason, but that's just paranoia. Wells is going to be thorough, and if he has scientists come out and support the theory that the PSI could well have been lowered by atmospheric conditions, Goodell is not going to come out and state the exact opposite. He may be in a situation where the evidence could support either, but he's not going to flat contradict the Wells report. He would get destroyed on appeal.
 

 The two biggest ones were that Wells could have found a smoking gun and the NFL has a huge credibility issue so for process and perception reason, they had to have an outsider do the work.

This seems contrary to your earlier point about public perception leading towards the Pats getting punished. On the one hand, all that matters is the perception of the fans, who don't give a rats ass about a Wells report or what facts may or may not exist when it comes to the Patriots. On the other hand, they needed a third party to show the work? It doesn't make sense, Goodell could have just kept the investigation internal and nailed the Pats if he weighed the punish-Pats public perception heavily. Goodell was also careful to use the word "if" in his press conference when referring to wrongdoing by the Patriots.
 

Wells finds no direct evidence of wrong doing but also can offer no plausible explanation for why the Pats' balls were more deflated than the Colts' balls

 
And if the Wells report is thorough and leaves open the possibility that the Colts footballs were inflated at a higher level prior to the game than New England's? Which would make complete sense, given that the Colts had brought the issue to the NFL's during the week leading up to the game?
 
This stuff is all going to be in the report, which, again, leads me to ask why have the report in the first place if the main goal is to appease perception that the Pats need to be punished.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

The idea of the Colts' balls starting at a higher psi requires far less strenuous mental gymnastics than are being displayed here to imagine the incoming punishment. And I mean no offense by that. It's a simple explanation.

Of course, any pregame data probably doesn't exist thanks to the old squeeze test. Or, glass half full, the precise measurements do exist but were so anti-inflammatory that leaking the numbers would actually have been a detriment to the witch hunt.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The idea of the Colts' balls starting at a higher psi requires far less strenuous mental gymnastics than are being displayed here to imagine the incoming punishment. And I mean no offense by that. It's a simple explanation.

 
Yes, especially since the Colts complained about the issue leading into the game. It was obviously on their minds heading in.

 

[bankshot1]

The idea of the Colts' balls starting at a higher psi requires far less strenuous mental gymnastics than are being displayed here to imagine the incoming punishment. And I mean no offense by that. It's a simple explanation.

 It also solves the messy issues of, if the Colt balls did not deflate and the Pats did, why did the Colt balls defy laws of science, and who re-inflated (tampered with) the Colt balls during the game?

 

[Hoya81]

The idea of the Colts' balls starting at a higher psi requires far less strenuous mental gymnastics than are being displayed here to imagine the incoming punishment. And I mean no offense by that. It's a simple explanation.

Of course, any pregame data probably doesn't exist thanks to the old squeeze test. Or, glass half full, the precise measurements do exist but were so anti-inflammatory that leaking the numbers would actually have been a detriment to the witch hunt.

The pregame PSI wasn't recorded, per Blandino's pre Super Bowl press conference.

 

[snowmanny]

To me the penalty follows the crime, and I do not see how Goodell gets around that.  If there is no specific wrongdoing identified, I can't imagine there being any penalty whatsoever.  If there is a determination the balls were intentionally deflated then the punishment will be major including suspensions; the big media shitshow would be if they said the Pats deflated the balls but didn't drop the hammer on the team.  The only way there is some "lighter" penalty is if the "crime" is something else; for example, they determine that the Patriots didn't necessarily deflate the balls post-inspection but they purposely and routinely turned them in at a borderline low pressure and manipulated the balls in some way (as Belichick basically admitted) which temporarily artificially boosted the psi and in so doing worked around the system, fooled the refs, and operated outside the spirit of the rules.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Snowmanny, Maybe we just look at things in a fundamentally different way but I liken this to parenting.  If I catch my kid red handed doing X Bad Thing, the punishment/reaction will be more severe than if I have a pretty good idea he did X Bad Thing but cannot prove it conclusively.  Said differently, I don't need 100% certainty to punish but without it, the punishment will be lesser. 
 
Goodell could say "yeah, we don't have a video of the Pats deflating the balls or testimony from the guy who admits to have done it.  If we did, we would have punished at 10X level.  But, after looking high and low, we have no other viable explanation for what happened here.  As a result, the penalty will be at X level,  From our perspective, the importance of maintaining the integrity of the game is so great that we do not require perfect evidence in order to issue a punishment."
 
Some of that mirrors what he said after the SpyGate punishment was handed down, and I just think that Goodell could take a more nuanced view to proof and punishment than "conclusion = severe punishment."
 
Arguing against myself for the moment, that there is no good baseline and recorded PSI levels from before the game COULD lead Wells and in turn Goodell to say there just isn't enough here to make the leap that I have been making.  I would really like to believe he will take that sensible approach.  While I don't believe it in my gut, on reflection I do think that there's some chance that he will get there.  Wells very well may be troubled by the lack of a reliable baseline and that may take on a big part of his report, thereby making it harder for Goodell to punish the Pats.    

 

[Ed Hillel]

The pregame PSI wasn't recorded, per Blandino's pre Super Bowl press conference.

 
Did he actually clarify that? I thought his answer was that the footballs were "gauged," and that no further details were given.

 

[Hoya81]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/30/blandino/mgk8vEnZFQEfLueyfjwAnM/story.html

"However, Blandino confirmed the results of each ball test were not “logged,” and the NFL is essentially forced to take Anderson at his word. The NFL’s competition committee will discuss at the owners meetings in March whether the officials should log the results of each ball test, or if video should be used in the testing process."

He also says that the NFL didn't run a sting, so YMMV.

 

[Jettisoned]

Goodell could say "yeah, we don't have a video of the Pats deflating the balls or testimony from the guy who admits to have done it.  If we did, we would have punished at 10X level.  But, after looking high and low, we have no other viable explanation for what happened here.  As a result, the penalty will be at X level,  From our perspective, the importance of maintaining the integrity of the game is so great that we do not require perfect evidence in order to issue a punishment."

If he ends up saying this, he'll be lying.  The viable explanation is that there was a decrease of the temperature of the air inside the footballs and the pressure inside the balls decreased as a result.  The pressure/temperature of the Colts footballs is completely irrelevant. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

What specific violation do you foresee them being
punished for?

 
 
Sloppy procedures, including unauthorized/unsupervised pee break. 
 
Commish: "After an exhaustive review of the Wells report, it is clear to me now that both the Patriots and the League could have carried out their procedures more carefully. Therefore, we are instituting the following procedural changes blah, blah, blah...and I am fining the Patriots $100,000."

 

[Ed Hillel]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/30/blandino/mgk8vEnZFQEfLueyfjwAnM/story.html

"However, Blandino confirmed the results of each ball test were not “logged,” and the NFL is essentially forced to take Anderson at his word. The NFL’s competition committee will discuss at the owners meetings in March whether the officials should log the results of each ball test, or if video should be used in the testing process."

He also says that the NFL didn't run a sting, so YMMV.

Thanks for the reminder. I guess the question is whether they actually even measured the PSI.

 

[Kull]

Goodell cares about one thing and one thing only - keeping his $40M salary. That means staying on as commissioner. Who votes for that? Insane Pats-hating fans? Looney Tune reporters? Witch hunt sponsoring league employees? No. Owners. Of whom only Irsay gives a shit about this. Nothing happens to the Patriots.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Given the fact that Blandino specified that the psi levels were measured with a gauge at halftime and postgame, and in the same statement failed to go that far in regards to the pre-game testing of the footballs, I think we can infer that they did NOT measure the pre-game balls with an actual gauge. (This is where I think "the squeeze test" theory starts to pick up steam.) IMO it would be odd to be so definitive with the other measurings and so weasel words-y with the original test if that wasn't the case.

 

[soxhop411]

<p>Freeman is tied into the NFL enough that it's possible he knows something, but this could also be rank speculation.  Anyway
link to tweet...


45]
 
 


 
Edit:  I should add that if you subscribe to the theory that the NFL wants to dump this news at an opportune time before the draft, it's hard to beat Good Friday -- Passover starts the same day, writers will be long gone by Friday at 5, people will be focused on the Final Four on Saturday and Monday, Sunday is Easter, and MLB starts on Sunday night/Monday.   

Let's see if this happens.

 

[TheoShmeo]

If he ends up saying this, he'll be lying.  The viable explanation is that there was a decrease of the temperature of the air inside the footballs and the pressure inside the balls decreased as a result.  The pressure/temperature of the Colts footballs is completely irrelevant. 

I don't think so.  It forms the basis for thinking that the Pats doctored their balls.  The natural reaction of a lot of people looking at this, including other owners, is that the difference between the Pats and Colts balls suggests the Pats were cheating.

 

[bankshot1]

 
The natural reaction of a lot of people looking at this, including other owners, is that the difference between the Pats and Colts balls suggests the Pats were cheating.

Ironically, the "natural reaction" of a football exposed to colder air temperature is to deflate.The natural reaction of owners in this case should be to ask. if the Pats balls deflated naturally due to colder weather, why didn't the Colt balls?
 
Unfortunately the question has been framed to frame the Pats.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Ironically, the "natural reaction" of a football exposed to colder air temperature is to deflate.The natural reaction of owners in this case should be to ask. if the Pats balls deflated naturally due to colder weather, why didn't the Colt balls?
 
Unfortunately the question has been framed to frame the Pats.

 
The other explanation is that they tested the Pats balls right away. Then after that decided maybe they should also test the Colts balls. Given we know the air pressure comes back pretty quickly what you have is a situation where you're comparing apples and oranges. Hopefully Wells looked into everything, including the timing of when gauges where put on the balls.

 

[djbayko]

 
The other explanation is that they tested the Pats balls right away. Then after that decided maybe they should also test the Colts balls. Given we know the air pressure comes back pretty quickly what you have is a situation where you're comparing apples and oranges. Hopefully Wells looked into everything, including the timing of when gauges where put on the balls.

 
Not to be a turd, but I think we exhausted all possible scenarios 200 pages ago.  We really need the report to come out  :c070:

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

 
Not to be a turd, but I think we exhausted all possible scenarios 200 pages ago.  We really need the report to come out  :c070:

ALL possible scenarios? 
 

Spoiler

 

[djbayko]

ALL possible scenarios? 
 

Spoiler

Well, even a black hole theory was mentioned, but you're right - to discuss ALL possible scenarios is impossible.

 

[nighthob]

ALL possible scenarios? 
 

 

[ivanvamp]

If he ends up saying this, he'll be lying.  The viable explanation is that there was a decrease of the temperature of the air inside the footballs and the pressure inside the balls decreased as a result.  The pressure/temperature of the Colts footballs is completely irrelevant. 

 
I can't tell you how many conversations I've been in since this happened where the other person said, "If the weather caused the Pats' footballs to deflate, why didn't the Colts' footballs deflate?  Hmmmmm?"  Makes me want to gouge my eyeballs out with a spoon.  

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
I can't tell you how many conversations I've been in since this happened where the other person said, "If the weather caused the Pats' footballs to deflate, why didn't the Colts' footballs deflate?  Hmmmmm?"  Makes me want to gouge my eyeballs out with a spoon.  

That's because the vast majority of people come to that conclusion.
 
While it's possible that Wells will go through the same analysis that has lead you to believe that the Colts' readings are a red herring, it's also possible, if not likely, that Wells will be left with that same question.
 
What makes you think that Wells will conclude as you have?  And do you think Wells will not leave any daylight for Goodell to get to the majority view?

 

[dcmissle]

I will be a bit surprised if Wells did not commission an expert on the issue. A general problem with experts is you can find one to support almost anything. All lawyers have their hos.

As a group we are generally reticent about putting the skankiest hos on the stand because of that great engine for truth discerning, cross examination. Not sure that is so vexing a problem here if all they are looking for is elevator music.

A talented ho will give a lawyer the report he or she is seeking, and then counsel outside the four corners of the document, "now this is how you blow my opinion up."

I am not casting aspersions on Wells; as noted before, I have a high regard for him and his own regard for his hard earned reputation. Just laying out for the non-initiated how this process generally works.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If/when the report does come out, I'm going to close this monster of a thread and start a new one.

 

[DJnVa]

 If they are found to have deflated balls then Belichick gets a long suspension.

 
 
Well, yeah. And if Belichick killed a hooker at halftime, he's going to get in trouble too.
 

 

 

[snowmanny]

My post was in response to TS, who predicted the Pats were going to be found guilty of deflating balls but the punishment was going to be on the "lighter" side.

 

[DJnVa]

My post was in response to TS, who predicted the Pats were going to be found guilty of deflating balls but the punishment was going to be on the "lighter" side.

 
 
I just wanted to make a hooker reference.
 

 

[joe dokes]

He may be in a situation where the evidence could support either, but he's not going to flat contradict the Wells report. He would get destroyed on appeal.
 

 
OK, I can buy this. He wont say anything that will contradict the report, like "there's no other explanation."  But I think that in Goodell's mind, for all the reasons I've said, the burden is on the Patriots. So absent *proof* they did nothing (an impossible standard), equal evidence mean Pats lose.  I dont think Goodell will say that publicly; but I think that will be his reasoning.  For public consumption he could point to "failure to adequately train team personnel in ball handling".
 
I think there are two camps here on how the PR fallout will fall, but I think that Goodell thinks that "it could have been natural deflation" doesn't *prove* that it was, and that in the public mind, he has to slap the Patriots.  I do *not* think that such "reasoning" will lead to suspension; maybe a token fine.
 
Someone mentioned Goodell's "counsel."    Does he have any? Isn't he the guy walking through the office complaining about how much money people make?   Who is going to treat him in any way different than the folks of Peaksville treated Anthony Fremont?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_a_Good_Life_(The_Twilight_Zone)
 
Wells's job is to investigate. I dont think the report will contain recommendations as to punishment.  It might go into how to make sure it doesn't happen again. ("Equip all ball-handling personnel with a StadiumPal or its equivalet")
  http://www.stadiumpal.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejEcOMqBvpY

 

[JohnnyK]

My post was in response to TS, who predicted the Pats were going to be found guilty of deflating balls but the punishment was going to be on the "lighter" side.

 
Only that's not at all what TS said.

 
My thesis is that if Wells finds really bad stuff, the Pats get will get whacked hard (not a controversial position, obviously) and if he finds nothing, essentially, they will still get whacked, but on the lighter side, because the facts on the ground speak for themselves.

Emphasis mine.

 

[Valek123]

If/when the report does come out, I'm going to close this monster of a thread and start a new one.

 
Thank you, or perhaps can we open a "news only" now, to allow the 2 minute look at reporter released information and allow this to continue to be the "NFL management continues to make a mockery of the game" thread until that time? 

 

[snowmanny]

 
Only that's not at all what TS said.
Emphasis mine.

Yeah, and I get Theo's point, but he said that even if Wells found no smoking gun Goodell's finding would/could be that the Pats deflated the balls. I can't see that finding with a weak punishment, even with all sorts of caveats about the evidence being limited. If the public hears that the NFL thinks the Pats deflated the balls, there would be a demand for extreme penalties, and if there's one thing we know it's that the NFL is very sensitive to those demands.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Yeah, and I get Theo's point, but he said that even if Wells found no smoking gun Goodell's finding would/could be that the Pats deflated the balls. I can't see that finding with a weak punishment, even with all sorts of caveats about the evidence being limited. If the public hears that the NFL thinks the Pats deflated the balls, there would be a demand for extreme penalties, and if there's one thing we know it's that the NFL is very sensitive to those demands.

That's correct.
 
But that "finding" would be coupled with an an admission that there was no direct evidence.  In that context, I think the message would be that given the lack of direct evidence, the fine is lesser than it would be if they had found such evidence.  I don't think that reasoning would be hard to explain or the public to absorb.
 
I think, to the contrary, that if we're talking about public opinion, that many more fans would be troubled by the circumstantial evidence leading to no penalty.
 
For the record, that I am explaining what I think might happen does not mean that I agree with it in any way.  No Stockholm Syndrome here.  The Patriots should only be fined if Wells finds direct evidence.  Period.

 

[soxhop411]

Its Friday afternoon.... Lets see if they do the dump

 

[dcmissle]

Its Friday afternoon.... Lets see if they do the dump

Even by the bar this League has set, this would be unbelievably crass -- but typically stupid. The credulity of companies which think they can mute the spanking the markets will deliver on Monday morning by leaking bad stuff at week's end.

 

[ifmanis5]

Doubt any info dump happens before the draft. And there will most likely be about a 24-hour head's up. I'm still betting on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Even if they hope the news dies over the weekend, it'll come back to life a couple of days later

 

[TheoShmeo]

Even by the bar this League has set, this would be unbelievably crass -- but typically stupid. The credulity of companies which think they can mute the spanking the markets will deliver on Monday morning by leaking bad stuff at week's end.

Yeah, releasing it today would be just too transparent.  Between Passover, Good Friday and Easter, the NFL would look like even bigger nitwits than usual if they did a Friday night drop this week.
 
Now watch them do it.

 

[joe dokes]

Even if they hope the news dies over the weekend, it'll come back to life a couple of days later

 
The judges would also accept:   "Ma-nishtana . . . . . . news dump . . . ."

 

[Corsi]

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer  11s12 seconds ago
Don't look for any movement on Deflategate or the Jets/Patriots tampering situation this afternoon.

 

[bankshot1]

Oh to be at the Kraft's seder...
 
Open the door for Elijah, and Roger shows up

 

[E5 Yaz]

Oh to be at the Kraft's seder...
 
Open the door for Elijah, and Roger shows up

 
They saved him a seat

 

[Red Right Ankle]

 
They saved him a seat

On the floor.  The doggy dish is filled with cheap box wine for him.
 
Chardonnay.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Still time to nail them

 

[bankshot1]

Roger is still looking high and low for the afikomen
 
schmuck!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Roger is still looking high and low for the afikomen

 
It's his cross to bear

 

[Monbo Jumbo]

Next year, Los Angeles!

 

[Otis Foster]

Roger is still looking high and low for the afikomen
 
schmuck!

He should get a stale Triscuit and a cup of warm Boone's Farm.