Yoan Moncada signs with Red Sox($30 Million)
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
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Harry Hooper said:
How long term is the commitment to Pedroia, really, in the context of a 19 year old? He's signed through 2021, so six more seasons, through his age 37 season.
I know we expect Moncada to move fast, but even moving fast he will likely require at least two years before he's added to the 40-man, and then three years of options. I think he could coexist pretty comfortably on a roster with a 35 year old Pedroia and a 30+ Panda, for example. If we're being honest, with Pedroia's full-throttle playing style and Pablo's weight, I expect we'd be lucky not to see some lengthy periods of Mookie and/or Yoan at 2b/3b over the next six years. It's fantastic to have this sort of quality depth in the infield.
It's not crazy to keep him at second, although some exposure to other positions might make sense after he gets more settled.
Betts will be an outfielder the rest of his career. And I strongly doubt that Moncada will ever play the middle infield in the majors. It makes sense not to give him a new position now when he is adjusting to a new culture, but it won't be long.
Nope, Shaw is having a really good start to his spring but the fact that Sam Travis has seen any ABs in ML ST games says a lot about how the club sees him. He was only drafted last summer and already they're putting him in front of AAA/ML level pitchers in camp. He's obviously going to be a fast mover. I think what he hows in ST will dictate his assignment. If he looks like he needs a slower pace they'll assign him to Salem and hope he's ready to move up within a few months. If instead he looks good in ST I wouldn't be at all surprised if they just leaped him up to AA to start the year. I think the club is rather cognizant of the talent hole they're current projected to have in Portland this year and won't be shy about getting Travis, Margot, Moncada, Asuaje, Gragnani, and possibly Ball and Stankiewicz up to AA while they can still get a meaningful sample size of ABs/IPs in 2015. Gragnani is likely there to start the season, Asuaje too or close behind. Travis could push the issue with a good spring. If Margot builds on his 2014 season at all he's likely up in Portland within the first 40-50 games. Moncada is obviously going to be fast tracked up to AA as soon as he looks comfortable and the weather warms up.DrBlinky said:
Yup. There have been some guys you never heard of, or will hear of, playing in the 8th inning.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Sure, because if there is one thing this organization lacks on the ST roster it's guys who play 1B right? I mean after Napoli, Nava, Craig, Shaw, Bryan LaHair, Jantzen Witte, and David Chester.Papelbon's Poutine said:
I'm sure the complete lack of worthwhile OF depth is why Travis has seen time at 1B this spring over both Nava and Craig too. Sure. Not like there is any reason to get as many ABs for Craig as possible this spring or anything for example.
But hey, when Farrell feels the need to open a post game presser by specifically addressing him giving ML ST innings and ABs at the catcher position to a 22 year old who moved up to AAA last season and is considered the best catching prospect in all of baseball I'm sure there is absolutely nothing to read into the club giving ML ST innings and ABs to a 21 year old who got a cup of coffee at high-A last year at a deeper position. Just a warm body right? Probably just pulled a name out of a hat or something.
BP video of Yoan taking... BP
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/see-yoan-moncada-michael-kopech-impress-fort-myers/
Seems stronger from left side, all SSS caveats apply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/see-yoan-moncada-michael-kopech-impress-fort-myers/
Seems stronger from left side, all SSS caveats apply
He has a really similar stance and swing from both sides, starting slightly open before a very short stride that closes up a bit, with a tiny toe-tap that is just a little more pronounced from the left side. Simple swing, without much load, but man does he rotate those hips/shoulders.Clears Cleaver said:
Alex Speier @alexspeier · Mar 16
ICYMI: Series on Red Sox' scouting process with Yoan Moncada. Part 1: It started as one line on a spreadsheet http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/14/yoan-moncada-first-caught-red-sox-eye-five-years-ago/x6Et47yGyg9BsvSTNIzR3I/story.html …
Alex Speier @alexspeier · Mar 16
Part 2: The Red Sox' $63M 'Super Bowl' of a workout for Moncada http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/15/the-inside-story-yoan-moncada-million-workout/7pmJEgpW0j2qrrSnxSjm3I/story.html …
Alex Speier @alexspeier · Mar 16
Part 3: Defining what Moncada was worth http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/16/red-sox-decided-risk-was-worth-sign-yoan-moncada/p65ogTkxYKl61YbjHccBhO/story.html …
ICYMI: Series on Red Sox' scouting process with Yoan Moncada. Part 1: It started as one line on a spreadsheet http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/14/yoan-moncada-first-caught-red-sox-eye-five-years-ago/x6Et47yGyg9BsvSTNIzR3I/story.html …
Alex Speier @alexspeier · Mar 16
Part 2: The Red Sox' $63M 'Super Bowl' of a workout for Moncada http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/15/the-inside-story-yoan-moncada-million-workout/7pmJEgpW0j2qrrSnxSjm3I/story.html …
Alex Speier @alexspeier · Mar 16
Part 3: Defining what Moncada was worth http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/16/red-sox-decided-risk-was-worth-sign-yoan-moncada/p65ogTkxYKl61YbjHccBhO/story.html …
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MentalDisabldLst
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From Part 2 of that article, a question:
In scouting, what does a crosschecker do? And, what would the difference be between an "international" and a "global" crosschecker? Is the latter the former's boss? Does he cross-check the crosscheckers?
edit: I'll also add that those articles were so well-written that I was surprised, given my usual expectations of Globe reporting. Phrasing like "strong prep stars smash homers against 75 mph slop, the disparity in the quality of competition too great for a true evaluation" is both well-said and well-thought-out, and he had high-quality quotes from most of the key players in this saga - which is a very long list. I had forgotten that soxhop had said it was Speier until I scrolled up to read the byline. Speier deserves his rep and whatever career advancement seems likely to come to him.
In scouting, what does a crosschecker do? And, what would the difference be between an "international" and a "global" crosschecker? Is the latter the former's boss? Does he cross-check the crosscheckers?
edit: I'll also add that those articles were so well-written that I was surprised, given my usual expectations of Globe reporting. Phrasing like "strong prep stars smash homers against 75 mph slop, the disparity in the quality of competition too great for a true evaluation" is both well-said and well-thought-out, and he had high-quality quotes from most of the key players in this saga - which is a very long list. I had forgotten that soxhop had said it was Speier until I scrolled up to read the byline. Speier deserves his rep and whatever career advancement seems likely to come to him.
I'm pretty sure that a crosschecker compares prospects across a country or globally. So a global crosschecker(sometimes the Asst GM) would go to the DR to check out a SS and then go to Texas to check out another SS to compare the two. While a national crosschecker would crosscheck only in the US. I assume there are regional crosscheckers, like a Pacific crosschecker and a Caribbean crosschecker who inform the global crosschecker who he may want to look at.MentalDisabldLst said:
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
It is. DS' post had an element of The Puppy Who Lost HIs Way to it.
Crosscheckers are senior to scouts and follow up on the reports they file, checking out the players themselves.
- The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“
That's baffling to me. It's money that doesn't count against the luxury tax and the Yankees are the richest team in the sport and have an incredibly old roster and a middling, middle of the pack farm system. This makes absolutely no sense.
Additionally, Cafardo continues his anti-"advanced metrics" tirade by choosing to use wins to make his point about Cueto instead of something like "another ace-level season." If Cueto wins 15 games with a 4.00 ERA and peripherals to match (FIP, xFIP, ect), no one is throwing him 210 million.
Additionally, Cafardo continues his anti-"advanced metrics" tirade by choosing to use wins to make his point about Cueto instead of something like "another ace-level season." If Cueto wins 15 games with a 4.00 ERA and peripherals to match (FIP, xFIP, ect), no one is throwing him 210 million.
Cashman would rather give the extra money to Drew to hit .150. Totally baffling. Passing on a #1 overall level talent over 7 million or so, which is gas money in the Yankee world.
bosockboy said:
Works for me.
Just looking at the obscene amount of young talent in the Sox' organization. It's almost overwhelming. Though the odds of any one particular player becoming great are small, THIS MUCH talent is almost certain to produce several top-quality players.
I just hope those aren't the ones they trade away for Hamels. :blink:
The Red Sox thought he was worth $63M and the Yankees did not. I don't see how anyone on a message board can know which of them was right.
But whether he pans out is largely irrelevant to whether he is worth making the bet on and there is literally nobody in the world who can be precise enough in their estimation to make a decision over seven million dollars.EvilEmpire said:
The only thing that makes any sense to me is that when they decided to sign all the international guys last Summer, the baseball guys had to agree that they would not bust the budget for a year or so.
The only two things I can think of. The MFYs have a cash flow problem that prevented them from going higher than $25M (after all, they paid $18M in luxury tax payments and 20M in international taxes already).
They know something about how Moncada got to his size.
Otherwise, I agree, it's hard to fathom Cashman's reasoning.
I don't think they know anything nefarious about his size (i.e., PEDs), or they wouldn't have touched him at all, after the ARod stuff. At least, they wouldn't have gone as high as $25 million for him.
I mean, if Cashman knows about PED usage, why would he go to $25m?
I mean, if Cashman knows about PED usage, why would he go to $25m?
Perhaps Cashman worked hard and eventually sold the SIAS spawn on a (defensible) quantity-over-quality strategy in regard to IFA signings. Having accomplished that and gained a decent budget for it, he had limited maneuvering room to go back to them and lobby for an exception to the strategy.
I see nothing worthy of criticism in Cashman's statement. You have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. At some point the "it's just X% more" logic results in big mistakes.
Only caveat here is that I think Cashman should have been fired years ago (assuming he's the decision maker). They don't know how to build a roster in today's game.
Only caveat here is that I think Cashman should have been fired years ago (assuming he's the decision maker). They don't know how to build a roster in today's game.
LahoudOrBillyC said:
Technically, the Sox thought he was worth > $88 million, what is what he'll be paid if he is what they hope. They are willing to take the risk of paying $63 million if he is a bust.
I can see where the upside gets more limited than the downside right around this figure.
I wasn't $7 million though, because thud hey tax doubles that to $14 million. The Red Sox let Lester walk over a $20 million difference with the Cubs, reportedly. On a percentage basis, that's smaller than the difference in the bids on Moncada. Both teams had a number; and refused to go over it. The Red Sox scouts have been solid, I'm glad they thought Moncada was worth more than the Yankees would pay.Rasputin said:
Harry Hooper said:
That doesn't really make sense, either, though, since they are in the same year that they went over to splash the pot and would suffer no greater tax penalty percentage. So the amount they have paid so far doesn't change, and the percentage they will pay on the new contract is the same as the previous ones. It has no impact on previous signings and when you consider that after this IFA signing period ends they are prohibited from offering more than 300k to any IFA's for the next two years, refusing to spend more to also land Moncada just doesn't make sense. I doubt they were hamstrung by ownership.
More likely, I would think, is that they guessed wrong on the price and thought Moncada's camp was bluffing with the Red Sox offer and now Cashman is trying to play it off as something else. It's certainly possible that they pegged him at being worth 50 million and not a penny more, but since the money doesn't count against the luxury tax, I just can't wrap my head around that possibility.
Plympton91 said:
The two situations exist in such wildly different environments they aren't worth comparing.
snowmanny said:
The GM does not act on his own with deals of this magnitude. There is a PR aspect. I suspect Cashman was authorized to make an offer that the owners knew would not be enough, so they could let the fan base know they tried. Just like Cano, and perhaps like the Red Sox did with Lester.
My understanding is both the Yankees and Red Sox submitted an identical first offer. Red Sox were then asked to go to 30 million and JWH upped it to 31.5 million hoping to top the Yankees and assuming they were asked to do the same. Cashman had been given an upper limit of 27 million and when Hastings asked if he could top the Red Sox offer of 31.5 million, he declined. Game over.
Yankees days of outspending everyone are over. Hal is a financial geek who made his mark in the Budget Hotel game. Yankee are now the Budget Yankees. Their revenues dwarf every team, and they are cash flush from selling off a piece of YES and the new YES deal, but in real dollars (payroll adjusted), they have cut spending by 50 million a year from their 2003-2009 hey day before Hal took over full control. In nominal dollars its flat, but payroll has increased 5% a year for most of this century, and 8% last year.
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MentalDisabldLst
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Plympton91 said:
Between this and the defense of the Sox interest in signing Betts early, you have really morphed over the years from viewing the Sox ownership through the most cynical lens, to giving them the benefit of the doubt on everything. That's a real testament to their process, commitment and clarity of thought, seeing as you're one of the hardest cases here.
If Pumpsie ever expresses similar sentiments, I'll have to check the date to make sure it's not Apr 1st.
. I wasn't referring to tax constraints, more that Cashman had already done a big sell job with his owners -- give me $xxx million and I will sign a slew of IFAs. Some will be busts, but we'll get many bites at the apple. He gets their (reluctant) approval, signs a passel, and then Moncada comes along. Owners won't really let him switch tactics now to drop big $ on one guy.Snodgrass said:
This is what I don't get. They must know how valuable young cost-controlled talent is and how much they could save in luxury tax payments if Moncada makes it to the Show. They also know that they are going to be prohibited from spending any more $ in IFA for the next two years and they can't spend $ on the draft. So if not Moncada, where is this money going to go?
Maybe they'll just keep on buying FAs.
A few months back people were lining up to applaud Ben's decision to play the conservative hand and hold the line over a couple extra million dollars a year on Lester, even at the expense that it potentially hurt our bottom line at the MLB level for the foreseeable future. How people make the apparently seamless jump from that to labeling the Moncado signing, which might as well be the rough equivalent of stopping off at the 7-Eleven on the way home after coming up $30 short on Lester and buying a $60 scratch off ticket in hopes that it starts paying out $120 (?) a few years from now, as some absolute "slam dunk" is beyond me.
I mean for all the romanticized possibilities and additional value that's getting pumped into a player's age lately, i personally just don't see some big difference in risk avoidance there. Not that I regret the Moncada signing, or Castillo for that matter, but there certainly is more then long shot chance in play that Ben walks out of this season with those decisions looking pretty overzealous in hindsight.
Seems a little early in this game to be declaring any winners or losers. Cashman has already dug himself enough of a hole without digging it any deeper. If he wasn't as sold as Ben was after years of scouting the kid....he wasn't as sold. Drawing a line on how far out on the limb one is prepared to go in that situation is perfectly logically. Arguably more so given what you are buying isn't even projected to pay any immediate dividends.
I mean for all the romanticized possibilities and additional value that's getting pumped into a player's age lately, i personally just don't see some big difference in risk avoidance there. Not that I regret the Moncada signing, or Castillo for that matter, but there certainly is more then long shot chance in play that Ben walks out of this season with those decisions looking pretty overzealous in hindsight.
Seems a little early in this game to be declaring any winners or losers. Cashman has already dug himself enough of a hole without digging it any deeper. If he wasn't as sold as Ben was after years of scouting the kid....he wasn't as sold. Drawing a line on how far out on the limb one is prepared to go in that situation is perfectly logically. Arguably more so given what you are buying isn't even projected to pay any immediate dividends.
Scratch cards is a bit too far for the analogy.
Perhaps lost out on a dream house at 500gs then put 350gs into building spec house in a subdivision that has not been zoned yet.
But, to answer the rest. Some people honestly believe the myth of positive thinking. they feel if they praise every move, look at the positives, good thing are more likely to happen.
Perhaps lost out on a dream house at 500gs then put 350gs into building spec house in a subdivision that has not been zoned yet.
But, to answer the rest. Some people honestly believe the myth of positive thinking. they feel if they praise every move, look at the positives, good thing are more likely to happen.
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MentalDisabldLst
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MikeM said:
I think painting with this broad brush is missing a bit of the finer strokes here. Moncada's signing bonus does not affect the ML payroll or luxury tax thresholds on it. It's effectively funny-money, as long as the Red Sox organization can afford the incremental cash outlay. Our bigger constraint is ML payroll, which Lester affected, rather than this which just comes out of general company funds. It's a very distinct decision, and the opportunity cost is lower than it was in, say, the Castillo signing.
It's certainly too early to be declaring winners and losers, although if he tears up the minors like a top prospect I think we can feel good about it a lot earlier than we might for the Brock Holts of the world. But perhaps most importantly, Speier's articles should give everyone confidence that the greatest amount of due diligence possible was pumped into this decision, and everyone in the organization seemed to have a consensus that Moncada was destined to be a regular in the bigs, possibly even a star. Maybe they're a bunch of yes-men, but the status of our farm system suggests that they deserve the benefit of the doubt, especially when all agree so vehemently.
Agreed. Mike, your argument is not helped by bringing the Lester issue into the mix. The Lester case is a completely different assessment based on how much value he would have brought to the team, and at what cost, over the next 6 or 7 years. That assessment has no bearing on Moncada, whose signing should be judged on the merits of his case alone.
MentalDisabldLst said:
And actually if he pans out even as an average ML starter, Moncada's signing actually will help reduce the future payroll wrt luxury tax threshold.
The point is people are mocking the Yankees for not paying the extra cash for Moncado, yet the same people praised Ben for sticking to his price with Lester. Cashman had a price and stuck to it, so did Ben. Sure the money is different, luxury tax etc, but the point remains in both cases a team with a lot of money lost a player by not going past a predetermined threshold.
MikeM said:
You really think the 30-something pitcher is a better bet to be worth $155-170m over the next six-seven years than the toolsy 19 y/o Cuban prospect with the .400+ OBP in the SN is to be worth $62 over the next six? I don't think that's very sure at all, without even factoring in ownership's interest in finding ways of investing in the roster that aren't subject to the CBT.
Moncada has such a high chance of being at least an acceptable major leaguer that his age makes it possible to cash out, limiting the downside. I love Lester, but that's a really, really risky move by the Cubs. If things go wrong with Lester, it could easily look more like Cliff Lee's deal looks now. The downside for Moncada is probably more like his old double play partner Erisbel Arruebarrena's situation. I bet if the Dodgers wanted to cut their losses with him, they could find a taker.
(I agree with your larger point that the ridicule of Cashman is foolish. He should stick to his valuation just as Ben did.)
geoduck no quahog said:
What really makes it so different though? Even writing off half of Moncada's deal as funny money, we have already passed the point on this value frontier where the money being paid out to these guys can simply be summed up as some previously minor side note. For guy that's potentially years away from even proving ready and/or capable of contributing where it matters (the MLB level), and i stress the "where it matters" in that btw.....Moncada didn't come cheap. To my knowledge that other half still ends up on the books whether he busts or not.
As i've stated in the past in other threads, i simply don't buy into this growing notion that every payroll dollar spent needs to be isolated off from other possibilities in the name of making the most sense out of it. If a move needs that type of a surrounding dismissal to hold up...maybe the foundation logic surrounding it isn't as impregnable as some would like to make it out to be.
Anyway love the move or hate to Moncada signing....Ben certainly went out on an extended limb to do it. To paint that reality off as anything less then the core reach it is just seems kinda silly imo. Same silliness goes for the criticism on Cashman imo. If that was Ben claiming the same exact thing in the aftermath, i'm guessing most here (outside losing out to the MFY factor) would have been cool and seen the logic in taking the pass.
