Xander Bogaerts has opted out of his contract

[jon abbey]

I think if NY signs Judge, there is zero percent chance they go after any of the big four SSs hard. If they lose Judge, I still don’t think so but I don’t really know what they’d do then.

Peraza is ready now though and Volpe probably sometime in 2023, they definitely do not need a bridge guy at SS. They already need to trade 1-2 excess infielders after signing Rizzo, Gleyber/IKF could both go.

 

[Saints Rest]

Lots of talk about X needing to move off SS at some point. 3B seems like the obvious location -- it's where he started out with the Sox (MLB) and Cal Ripken is the clear model for such a move -- but in Boston, assuming they can extend Devers, 3B isn't really an option without also moving Raffy. Ditto for 2B and Story. Ditto for 1B and Casas (presumably/hopefully).

So where could X move, assuming he re-signs with the Sox? LF and hope he's not Hanley Redux? CF and hope he can be the next Robin Yount or Craig Biggio? RF? His SS defense now seems to suggest that his range at that position is sub-optimal, so would be he a statue in the outfield at 33?

 

[bsj]

Lots of talk about X needing to move off SS at some point. 3B seems like the obvious location -- it's where he started out with the Sox (MLB) and Cal Ripken is the clear model for such a move -- but in Boston, assuming they can extend Devers, 3B isn't really an option without also moving Raffy. Ditto for 2B and Story. Ditto for 1B and Casas (presumably/hopefully).

So where could X move, assuming he re-signs with the Sox? LF and hope he's not Hanley Redux? CF and hope he can be the next Robin Yount or Craig Biggio? RF? His SS defense now seems to suggest that his range at that position is sub-optimal, so would be he a statue in the outfield at 33?

Is there a theory where X plays SS for a few more years and then moves to...DH? Yes I know he would be an expensive AF DH, and you certainly aren't looking for sign a $30 million DH. Just throwing ideas out there.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Lots of talk about X needing to move off SS at some point. 3B seems like the obvious location -- it's where he started out with the Sox (MLB) and Cal Ripken is the clear model for such a move -- but in Boston, assuming they can extend Devers, 3B isn't really an option without also moving Raffy. Ditto for 2B and Story. Ditto for 1B and Casas (presumably/hopefully).

So where could X move, assuming he re-signs with the Sox? LF and hope he's not Hanley Redux? CF and hope he can be the next Robin Yount or Craig Biggio? RF? His SS defense now seems to suggest that his range at that position is sub-optimal, so would be he a statue in the outfield at 33?

From what I've seen mentioned, I think people are envisioning him in LF

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Why worry about where he might have to move down the road, now? When he is suddenly not able to play the position, figure it out then. A year ago, the idea was that Story was SS insurance and now it’s been determined he can’t even play there.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Why worry about where he might have to move down the road, now? When he is suddenly not able to play the position, figure it out then. A year ago, the idea was that Story was SS insurance and now it’s been determined he can’t even play there.

Is that a definite, though? I know I've read concerns about arm strength, and I wouldn't want to let X go simply because we have Story in house, but I assumed he'd still be capable of playing the position well enough.

 

[Ale Xander]

X is too good of an athlete/fielder to be at DH anytime soon. Or frankly 1B either.
3B, 2B, LF and maybe even CF make a lot of sense but probably not for a couple years.
he’s going to play SS next year, my bet is on Philly but there are other possibilities

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Yankees have reached out to Xander Bogaerts.

"The Yankees’ clear priority this winter is re-signing superstar Aaron Judge, but it appears one of their contingency plans involves reigniting their rivalry with the Red Sox in a pretty notable way.
New York has been in touch with longtime Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts since he became a free agent, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees have also touched base with fellow top free agent shortstops Trea Turner and Carlos Correa."


https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/xander-bogaerts-rumors-yankees-have-been-in-touch-with-longtime-red-sox-shortstop-report.html

 

[Van Everyman]

The Yankees have reached out to Xander Bogaerts.

"The Yankees’ clear priority this winter is re-signing superstar Aaron Judge, but it appears one of their contingency plans involves reigniting their rivalry with the Red Sox in a pretty notable way.
New York has been in touch with longtime Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts since he became a free agent, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees have also touched base with fellow top free agent shortstops Trea Turner and Carlos Correa."


https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/xander-bogaerts-rumors-yankees-have-been-in-touch-with-longtime-red-sox-shortstop-report.html

Heyman really does deserve a commission.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Yankees have reached out to Xander Bogaerts.

"The Yankees’ clear priority this winter is re-signing superstar Aaron Judge, but it appears one of their contingency plans involves reigniting their rivalry with the Red Sox in a pretty notable way.
New York has been in touch with longtime Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts since he became a free agent, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees have also touched base with fellow top free agent shortstops Trea Turner and Carlos Correa."


https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/xander-bogaerts-rumors-yankees-have-been-in-touch-with-longtime-red-sox-shortstop-report.html

X will only sign there is they let him wear No. 2

 

[joe dokes]

Why worry about where he might have to move down the road, now? When he is suddenly not able to play the position, figure it out then. A year ago, the idea was that Story was SS insurance and now it’s been determined he can’t even play there.

That's where I am. Based on this year, his inability to play SS is not an immediate concern.

 

[buttons]

I really don’t understand what some people are thinking.
Xander is the heart and soul
of this team and a guy that
gave a home town discount to play here. In my opinion
we would do more damage to the franchise by loosing
him than having him playing here when his numbers may
not be all that great!

 

[OCD SS]

The Yankees have reached out to Xander Bogaerts.

"The Yankees’ clear priority this winter is re-signing superstar Aaron Judge, but it appears one of their contingency plans involves reigniting their rivalry with the Red Sox in a pretty notable way.
New York has been in touch with longtime Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts since he became a free agent, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees have also touched base with fellow top free agent shortstops Trea Turner and Carlos Correa."


https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/xander-bogaerts-rumors-yankees-have-been-in-touch-with-longtime-red-sox-shortstop-report.html

So a team with a hole at SS (who I believe has indicated that IKF is not going to be their starting SS of the future) has reached out to all the top SS FAs? Who saw that move coming.

I think if NY signs Judge, there is zero percent chance they go after any of the big four SSs hard. If they lose Judge, I still don’t think so but I don’t really know what they’d do then.

Peraza is ready now though and Volpe probably sometime in 2023, they definitely do not need a bridge guy at SS. They already need to trade 1-2 excess infielders after signing Rizzo, Gleyber/IKF could both go.

Are the Yankees really likely to turn the keys over to Volpe, declaring him the starter before even getting to ST? Even Clemens, who I mentioned earlier was clear that Judge is option 1, and if the Yankees don't re-sign him it becomes a matter of who they turn their attention to. I guess the question is does X make more sense than Corea or Turner? Just going from the games I watch, his offensive profile may work well in the toilet; opposite field fly balls may then get out over the short porch, and then he's using pull power to LF... I wonder how this would compare to his wall balls in Fenway.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So a team with a hole at SS (who I believe has indicated that IKF is not going to be their starting SS of the future) has reached out to all the top SS FAs? Who saw that move coming.


Are the Yankees really likely to turn the keys over to Volpe, declaring him the starter before even getting to ST? Even Clemens, who I mentioned earlier was clear that Judge is option 1, and if the Yankees don't re-sign him it becomes a matter of who they turn their attention to. I guess the question is does X make more sense than Corea or Turner? Just going from the games I watch, his offensive profile may work well in the toilet; opposite field fly balls may then get out over the short porch, and then he's using pull power to LF... I wonder how this would compare to his wall balls in Fenway.

Cashman's comments have indicated that they'd stick with IFK this year and whoever top minor leaguer comes out on top would take over for him. They could always move Volpe to 2nd and sign a top SS however.

 

[chrisfont9]

Scott Boras's wind-up monkey reports that the MFY are interested in X (and other good SS).

https://nypost.com/2022/11/15/yankees-could-make-star-shortstop-their-aaron-judge-backup-plan/

It would be funny if it weren't so sad. Does he have a safe word?

 

[Ganthem]

I really don’t understand what some people are thinking.
Xander is the heart and soul
of this team and a guy that
gave a home town discount to play here. In my opinion
we would do more damage to the franchise by loosing
him than having him playing here when his numbers may
not be all that great!

There needs to be a line in the sand on the number of years and dollars being offered to Xander. If, for example, the Yanks or any other team wants to offer Xander 8 years and 256 million dollars, I would not shed a tear to see Xander go. I would rather see the heart and soul go, then to overpay and tie up resources that could be better used elsewhere.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Here are the batted ball charts from Baseball Savant for 2022 in Fenway and the Toilet.

 

[jon abbey]

Are the Yankees really likely to turn the keys over to Volpe, declaring him the starter before even getting to ST? Even Clemens, who I mentioned earlier was clear that Judge is option 1, and if the Yankees don't re-sign him it becomes a matter of who they turn their attention to. I guess the question is does X make more sense than Corea or Turner? Just going from the games I watch, his offensive profile may work well in the toilet; opposite field fly balls may then get out over the short porch, and then he's using pull power to LF... I wonder how this would compare to his wall balls in Fenway.

Peraza is ready now, Volpe should be ready by June at the latest, NY is way way way more likely to trade 1-2 middle infielders (Gleyber, IKF) than they are to sign a FA SS. If you don't believe me, Jim Bowden's newly posted column agrees (and keep in mind he is answering as if they have lost Judge, which is looking unlikely currently):

==============================

We all assume the Yankees will re-sign Judge. But if he goes elsewhere, what is Brian Cashman’s big move? (Jacob) deGrom? (Justin) Verlander? Correa? — Bill L.

Like last offseason, the Yankees are not planning to pursue any of the middle-infield free agents, even if they lose out on Judge. They are committed to rookie Oswald Peraza and prospect Anthony Volpe as their future middle infield.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Here are the batted ball charts from Baseball Savant for 2022 in Fenway and the Toilet.

View attachment 57728View attachment 57729
View attachment 57730

They look identical

 

[absintheofmalaise]

They look identical

Those are his batted balls for the season over both parks. The batted balls are identical, the parks are different.

 

[OCD SS]

Cashman's comments have indicated that they'd stick with IFK this year and whoever top minor leaguer comes out on top would take over for him. They could always move Volpe to 2nd and sign a top SS however.

Thanks for the correction, I thought JA or someone had quoted that IKF wouldn't start. Since these are basically post-Judge/ Option B scenarios, I wonder if the would hold to this plan with that much payroll freed up and needing to replace that much offense.

Edit, I see JA has answered while I typed... although do we trust Bowden more than Heyman as far as sourcing goes?

 

[jon abbey]

Edit, I see JA has answered while I typed... although do we trust Bowden more than Heyman as far as sourcing goes?

Slightly, but it just makes no sense for NY to commit big money to a SS right now. It made a little more sense last winter and they didn't do it then, IMO there is basically no chance they will do it now.

 

[chawson]

In fairness, Ben Clemens (who wrote the FanGraphs top 50 FA article) was on Effectively Wild a couple episodes back and talked up the Yankees as a potential landing spot. They need someone who can play SS for a couple years before one of their prospects take over, and unlike the Sox their situations at 2B and 3B are not locked in long term.

I really can’t see it happening for several reasons. Those Yankee shortstop prospects arrive sooner than 2025 — Peraza is arguably ready now. Installing Bogaerts at short would reverse Cashman’s defensive gains, something he really cared about with Gleyber. And besides, Xander is a much better offensive fit for Fenway than Yankee Stadium.

Lastly, I just don’t think Xander the personality is a Yankee fit, and it’s not out of some loyalty to Boston. I’d be worried about Devers, who’d obviously be a monster in that park, but there’s no way the Yankees value Bogaerts more than every other team in the league.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Those are his batted balls for the season over both parks. The batted balls are identical, the parks are different.

Carry on, ignore me.

 

[EvilEmpire]

If the Yankees miss out on Judge and really do decide to spend big on SS even though they have some depth at that position, I really don't think it will be for one with a mediocre glove. I think they would target the other top tier guys first.

Edit: But still, spending big on other positions of greater need makes way more sense.

 

[chrisfont9]

I really can’t see it happening for several reasons. Those Yankee shortstop prospects arrive sooner than 2025 — Peraza is arguably ready now. Installing Bogaerts at short would reverse Cashman’s defensive gains, something he really cared about with Gleyber. And besides, Xander is a much better offensive fit for Fenway than Yankee Stadium.

Lastly, I just don’t think Xander the personality is a Yankee fit, and it’s not out of some loyalty to Boston. I’d be worried about Devers, who’d obviously be a monster in that park, but there’s no way the Yankees value Bogaerts more than every other team in the league.

Devers already IS a monster in that park

 

[jon abbey]

Devers already IS a monster in that park

I feel compelled to check these kind of statements when they're made, here are Devers' career OPS numbers in the 5 AL East ballparks:

TOR: .943
BAL: .875
BOS: .871
TB: .730
NYY: .678

 

[buttons]

There needs to be a line in the sand on the number of years and dollars being offered to Xander. If, for example, the Yanks or any other team wants to offer Xander 8 years and 256 million dollars, I would not shed a tear to see Xander go. I would rather see the heart and soul go, then to overpay and tie up resources that could be better used elsewhere.

Do you really think that 8 years at $32million is what it would take to resign him?
my point was that we should be willIng to go eight years recognizing that his
numbers in all departments will most. Likely decline

 

[Ganthem]

Do you really think that 8 years at $32million is what it would take to resign him?
my point was that we should be willIng to go eight years recognizing that his
numbers in all departments will most. Likely decline

I don't think Xander is getting 256 million. My point is that Bloom needs come up with a value for Xander and not exceed that. If some other team is willing then fine. Xander being the heart and soul should have little to no impact on what Bloom is willing to offer.

 

[LogansDad]

I feel compelled to check these kind of statements when they're made, here are Devers' career OPS numbers in the 5 AL East ballparks:

TOR: .943
BAL: .875
BOS: .871
TB: .730
NYY: .678

Yeah, but:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkatspZe0uw

 

[buttons]

I don't think Xander is getting 256 million. My point is that Bloom needs come up with a value for Xander and not exceed that. If some other team is willing then fine. Xander being the heart and soul should have little to no impact on what Bloom is willing to offer.

I probably define “value” to include intrinsic factors while you may not

 

[Van Everyman]

Yeah, but:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkatspZe0uw

And:
View: https://twitter.com/JoezMcfLy/status/896946934853885952?s=20&t=8JJwzghIrvb_d7kqzqZoYQ

 

[Ganthem]

I probably define “value” to include intrinsic factors while you may not

Fair enough

 

[chrisfont9]

I feel compelled to check these kind of statements when they're made, here are Devers' career OPS numbers in the 5 AL East ballparks:

TOR: .943
BAL: .875
BOS: .871
TB: .730
NYY: .678

OK, but 19 HRs (in both parks) vs NYY is his largest total versus any opponent. And 9 at YS, second only to 10 at Camden Yards. Notable at least, since the Yankees have been generally very good during his entire career.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Fair enough

I don't know how much $$$ or importance Bloom or the FO places on "intangibles" but they're worth something guys. I don't think they can be waved away by posters here as having no impact on how a player is valued and I don't think Bloom or the FO does either. Like it or not, X is looked at by Devers as a mentor and how this shakes out will have SOME affect on Devers going forward. How much is a whole other discussion... but it's there and the FO is weighing that also with everything else- years, overall cost, injury history, etc...

 

[chrisfont9]

I don't know how much $$$ or importance Bloom or the FO places on "intangibles" but they're worth something guys. I don't think they can be waved away by posters here as having no impact on how a player is valued and I don't think Bloom or the FO does either. Like it or not, X is looked at by Devers as a mentor and how this shakes out will have SOME affect on Devers going forward. How much is a whole other discussion... but it's there and the FO is weighing that also with everything else- years, overall cost, injury history, etc...

This strikes me as true and something the FO would know far better than us. I would suggest the Eovaldi QO is another bit of evidence to this effect (vs Wacha, who I'm sure is a fine person, but not a four-year cornerstone). If this hunch is correct, and they still don't pay up for both players, then they didn't view them as good cornerstones and really are thinking about a wholly revamped roster.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This strikes me as true and something the FO would know far better than us. I would suggest the Eovaldi QO is another bit of evidence to this effect (vs Wacha, who I'm sure is a fine person, but not a four-year cornerstone). If this hunch is correct, and they still don't pay up for both players, then they didn't view them as good cornerstones and really are thinking about a wholly revamped roster.

I’m feeling a little like the ‘05 off-season when everyone wanted Edgar Renteria and let Orlando Cabrera walk. Not a great comparison…. But Cabrera showed he could play in Boston but Renteria had the better numbers. I’m just not sure if the slight upgrade and age difference between Correa and Xander makes up for knowing that X CAN play in Boston. Again- it’s different in Boston and NY than any other place.
Intangible.

 

[OCD SS]

I’m feeling a little like the ‘05 off-season when everyone wanted Edgar Renteria and let Orlando Cabrera walk. Not a great comparison…. But Cabrera showed he could play in Boston but Renteria had the better numbers. I’m just not sure if the slight upgrade and age difference between Correa and Xander makes up for knowing that X CAN play in Boston. Again- it’s different in Boston and NY than any other place.
Intangible.

That's a whole other rabbit hole. I think the biggest difference is playing SS Roulette won't generate additional draft picks for everyone this time around, but at the time the Sox also went out and got the best available player to boot, rather than sitting on their hands. I don't see that happening here as Correa is likely going to cost a heck of a lot more than X.

I do not buy the can't play in Boston thing. I think if we can make sure whoever is playing SS doesn't have a back injury, that's good enough.

 

[jeremyh331]

Am I the only person who isn't sentimental about Xander Bogaerts? That contract will look awful at the back end. The batting numbers last year, while better than average, weren't by any means eye popping. How accurate are these new defensive play metrics? It's going to be an unpopular position but there are plenty of better ways to allocate resources than on a long term, expensive contract for a SS who turns 33 next season.

 

[Max Power]

Am I the only person who isn't sentimental about Xander Bogaerts? That contract will look awful at the back end. The batting numbers last year, while better than average, weren't by any means eye popping. How accurate are these new defensive play metrics? It's going to be an unpopular position but there are plenty of better ways to allocate resources than on a long term, expensive contract for a SS who turns 33 next season.

Xander just turned 30 last month. How is he going to be 33 next season?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Xander just turned 30 last month. How is he going to be 33 next season?

The New Math

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The New Math

Hooray!

 

[jeremyh331]

Typo. Thanks for graciously pointing it out. The kindness of SOSH extends way back to the Dickie Thon days.

Cheers, all!

 

[Rasputin]

And:
View: https://twitter.com/JoezMcfLy/status/896946934853885952?s=20&t=8JJwzghIrvb_d7kqzqZoYQ

This clip will never not bring me joy.

 

[streeter88]

I don’t subscribe to the Globe. Does this article have anything in it? Or is it just a rehash of old ground?

View: https://twitter.com/bglobesports/status/1593004086026125312?s=21&t=kmnN82P1r4iTuJrPj_b5ZQ

 

[chrisfont9]

I don’t subscribe to the Globe. Does this article have anything in it? Or is it just a rehash of old ground?

View: https://twitter.com/bglobesports/status/1593004086026125312?s=21&t=kmnN82P1r4iTuJrPj_b5ZQ

I think the key is that they have made subsequent offers for more money to both Devers and Bogaerts since the start of free agency. Kennedy sounds relatively upbeat about having constructive engagement with X.

 

[chrisfont9]

I’m feeling a little like the ‘05 off-season when everyone wanted Edgar Renteria and let Orlando Cabrera walk. Not a great comparison…. But Cabrera showed he could play in Boston but Renteria had the better numbers. I’m just not sure if the slight upgrade and age difference between Correa and Xander makes up for knowing that X CAN play in Boston. Again- it’s different in Boston and NY than any other place.
Intangible.

It's not nothing. It's also about the team's identity, of which Bogaerts is a part. I can only guess that stability makes guys feel more comfortable, which tends to make them play better, but we are getting very unscientific.

 

[CR67dream]

Typo. Thanks for graciously pointing it out. The kindness of SOSH extends way back to the Dickie Thon days.

Cheers, all!

Something tells me JeremyH is posting from Cactus Country!! What's up my man?!?! Did you get locked out of your original account?

For the record, I am also not sentimental about X, though I definitely like him more than Caesar Crespo....

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

When you look at how Jeremy Pena did this year, I start to wonder how he was rated as a prospect compared to Marcelo Mayer. Houston gambled on letting Correa go and handing the job to Pena. Now Pena is the World Series MVP, and a cost controlled star for the next several years at arguably the most important position on the diamond. Players like that make a GM's job so much easier, when they can have cost controlled stars and only need to fill a few gaps with free agents to make a contender. I love X, but if we could have someone like Pena in Mayer, I wouldn't want to block him positionally or financially.

 

[jon abbey]

When you look at how Jeremy Pena did this year, I start to wonder how he was rated as a prospect compared to Marcelo Mayer. Houston gambled on letting Correa go and handing the job to Pena. Now Pena is the World Series MVP, and a cost controlled star for the next several years at arguably the most important position on the diamond. Players like that make a GM's job so much easier, when they can have cost controlled stars and only need to fill a few gaps with free agents to make a contender. I love X, but if we could have someone like Pena in Mayer, I wouldn't want to block him positionally or financially.

Pena was 24 at the start of this season (turned 25 in Sept), Mayer is still 19 (20 in December) and he barely got to high A last year, he looks on track for 2025, I'd say (others here know better than me).