I don't think it's a question of a FO being dumb, it's a question of a FO having a ton of money and wanting to do something big to "win the winter", sorta like Texas did last year with Seager and Semien. I remember thinking that when Texas signed both of those guys, that they'd end up regretting it.
It's one of the genius things that Marvin Miller did and that's to have a trickle of free agents every year so that owners (and fans) go crazy for a couple of really good players every year. Charlie Finley wanted every deal to be a one-year one so that there would be a glut of FAs on the market every year. Yes, the superstars would be paid like superstars but the players on the next level down wouldn't be paid like stars because there would be too many of them and the market would collapse. The other owners hated him so much they laughed Finley out of the room and Miller (and the players) were pumped.
So would it shock me that Bogaerts breaks the bank? No. He's a terrific player, but he's no Aaron Judge and there might be a FO that sees him as a worthy consolation prize and give him a large portion of the cash that was earmarked for Judge (or deGrom, etc).
