Xander Bogaerts has opted out of his contract

[Zupcic Fan]

I think this is a classic damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. xander in my opinion is not a great hitter. I looked up players who I used to love watching hit. Rod Carew had about the same number of lifetime walks as strikeouts. Wade Boggs and tony Gwynn had twice as many lifetime walks than strikeouts. Xander has twice as many lifetime strikeouts than walks. Granted I watch less than I used to. But I was amazed at how often he and JDMartinez got up when I watched, and in crucial situations fell for the exact same slider every single time In my mind he is not even close to being worth that kind of money, especially since he no longer hits home runs and plays good but not great defense. But he is important to the team, is a fan favorite, is certainly not a bad hitter if you just look at average, and Chaim will get all kinds of shit for not signing him

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t

 

[snowmanny]

The lowest OPS+ Bogaerts has had over the past five years is the same as the third highest OPS+ of Derek Jeter's career. It matches the fifth highest of Ripken's. Now Rod Carew, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn were another level. But Bogaerts is on a hell of a run. You can define "great" however you'd like but saying "certainly not a bad hitter if you just look at average" is a laughable description.

 

[Zupcic Fan]

Yeah. You’re probably right. But it’s frustrating to me how he has a pretty poor conception of the strike zone, in my opinion, for someone who people expect to get 30 million dollars a year. Because of that, too many bad at bats against good pitchers when it matters. For 30 million a year, I would expect more. i know your numbers don’t lie, but still, when I watch him i am frustrated by so many of his at bats. It’s my main gripe with Cora. I think his aggressive approach to all at bats gets in the way of hitters being patient and waiting for an actual good pitch to hit. i used to love the old Red Sox teams that used to get the other pitchers up to 100 pitches by the fifth inning. i just don’t think a 30 million dollar player should have twice as many strike outs as walks unless he is a power hitter providing big home Run and rbi numbers. Swinging so frequently out of the zone might contribute to his having so few home runs and rbis last year, and I suspect it will only get worse as he gets older.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Way different game now versus when Gwynn, Boggs etc were in their prime.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yeah. You’re probably right. But it’s frustrating to me how he has a pretty poor conception of the strike zone, in my opinion, for someone who people expect to get 30 million dollars a year. Because of that, too many bad at bats against good pitchers when it matters. For 30 million a year, I would expect more. i know your numbers don’t lie, but still, when I watch him i am frustrated by so many of his at bats. It’s my main gripe with Cora. I think his aggressive approach to all at bats gets in the way of hitters being patient and waiting for an actual good pitch to hit. i used to love the old Red Sox teams that used to get the other pitchers up to 100 pitches by the fifth inning. i just don’t think a 30 million dollar player should have twice as many strike outs as walks. swinging so frequently out of the zone might contribute to his having so few home runs and rbis last year, and I suspect it will only get worse as he gets older.

You're out of touch with the modern player, unfortunately. For better or worse, strikeouts just aren't viewed as negatively as they used to be. All of the hitters making or about to make 30M a year strike out far more than they walk: Trout, Correa, Betts, Arenado, Rendon, Lindor, Seager, Cabrera, Machado, Judge.

There just aren't hitters that take a Boggsian or Gwynnian or Carewian approach at the plate. At least not ones who are bound to be superstars in the game.

 

[Zupcic Fan]

Yes, I know. But Mike Trout would need about 500 more strikeouts to double his walk total. And both Ortiz and Manny weren’t even close to having twice as many strikeouts as walks. I just don’t get it. How can it be a bad thing for these guys to have a better idea of the strike zone. I mean I love watching Devers, but wouldnt he be much better if he didn‘t make so many outs swinging at shit? I once heard an interview with Mike Schmidt. He said he knew he was breaking out of his slump when he started to get at least one walk a game. It’s not really the strikeouts I’m complaining about with someone like Xander. It’s the number of awful pitches he falls for. I really don’t know what Bloom should do, but if you want to see Xander at 35, my guess is you should study JD Martinez’s at bats recently.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/07/sports/xander-bogaerts-has-opted-out-his-contract-with-red-sox-now-what/
Speier dips his toes into what's next

But while the team did reach out to Bogaerts and his agent, Scott Boras, shortly after the end of the regular season, by that point, a deal – unless on terms dictated completely by Boras – was unlikely. According to a major league source, while the team talked with Bogaerts early in the offseason, it seemed clear in recent weeks that there would be no deal, leaving Bogaerts to opt out.

There are arguments to be made in favor of the other three over Bogaerts, whose slugging percentage has dropped in each of the last three seasons, whose excellent 2022 numbers were in part a product of a huge number of groundball hits, and whose future at short has been questioned for his entire career.

 

[LogansDad]

You're out of touch with the modern player, unfortunately. For better or worse, strikeouts just aren't viewed as negatively as they used to be. All of the hitters making or about to make 30M a year strike out far more than they walk: Trout, Correa, Betts, Arenado, Rendon, Lindor, Seager, Cabrera, Machado, Judge.

There just aren't hitters that take a Boggsian or Gwynnian or Carewian approach at the plate. At least not ones who are bound to be superstars in the game.

I don't think we will go back to the 80's, but I think next years rules might move us in that direction.

I think Xander wants 8 years+, I would probably be comfortable with 6 at somewhere between 150-180m. Sadly, I think someone is going to open a vault for him, especially if they believe his defensive improvement over the last couple years is sustainable.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I don't think we will go back to the 80's, but I think next years rules might move us in that direction.

I think Xander wants 8 years+, I would probably be comfortable with 6 at somewhere between 150-180m. Sadly, I think someone is going to open a vault for him, especially if they believe his defensive improvement over the last couple years is sustainable.

Love the guy, but I wouldn't go over 5 years $150M. Someone might outbid us, but I'd hate to be reading this board in 3-4 years with 80% of the members lamenting the albatross of a contract and misremembering where they stood at the time. 5 years $135M would be my first offer, but I wouldn't go above the $150M.

Sign him to that deal, lock down Devers for 8 ytears $250-ish and then trade the farm for Ohtani as speculated in another thread if you'd like (but only if an extension can be worked out as a condition of the deal). At that point, In Chaim We Trust becomes much more positive.

 

[LogansDad]

Love the guy, but I wouldn't go over 5 years $150M. Someone might outbid us, but I'd hate to be reading this board in 3-4 years with 80% of the members lamenting the albatross of a contract and misremembering where they stood at the time. 5 years $135M would be my first offer, but I wouldn't go above the $150M.

Sign him to that deal, lock down Devers for 8 ytears $250-ish and then trade the farm for Ohtani as speculated in another thread if you'd like (but only if an extension can be worked out as a condition of the deal). At that point, In Chaim We Trust becomes much more positive.

You're probably right, I just think 5/$135 would be a non-starter for Xander's camp, and lean toward "I would really like him back, even if the end is non-optimal".

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sox have oodles of money, tons of payroll flexibility- we’ve been hearing about it all year, but now that it comes time to spend it, there seems to be some sticker shock and while I think it’s true that every big name free agent is going to cost more than they are worth, what’s the alternative here?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Love the guy, but I wouldn't go over 5 years $150M. Someone might outbid us, but I'd hate to be reading this board in 3-4 years with 80% of the members lamenting the albatross of a contract and misremembering where they stood at the time. 5 years $135M would be my first offer, but I wouldn't go above the $150M.

Sign him to that deal, lock down Devers for 8 ytears $250-ish and then trade the farm for Ohtani as speculated in another thread if you'd like (but only if an extension can be worked out as a condition of the deal). At that point, In Chaim We Trust becomes much more positive.

I think those numbers for X or Devers would be summarily rejected.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I think those numbers for X or Devers would be summarily rejected.

And that’s fine. I wouldn’t go above $35m AAV on Devers with a preference of closer to $30m. Xander at $27m is fair, but I’d cap at $30m and wouldn’t go over 5 years. I love both of these guys, but it is what it is.

 

[snowmanny]

And also you don’t start with a low-ball offer when you are in free agency. It’s now closer to an auction than a negotiation. Offering 5/135 when 6/180 is probably immediately on the table from someone else will mark the end of your participation.

 

[snowmanny]

And that’s fine. I wouldn’t go above $35m AAV on Devers with a preference of closer to $30m. Xander at $27m is fair, but I’d cap at $30m and wouldn’t go over 5 years. I love both of these guys, but it is what it is.

That’s a lot of money to save. How do you propose they spend it? Outbid everyone on other free agents or something else?

 

[OCD SS]

If you subscribe to the idea of it being better to loose a player a year too early than be locked into a long term deal, this is when you let X go. There is no palatable short term solution, but does anyone think he's going to maintain his offensive performance into years 3, 4, 5, or farther out?

 

[streeter88]

Xander has made $85M from salaries thus far, not sure what he has made from endorsements. This next contract thus becomes his key opportunity to create generational wealth, and he had a 5.7 WAR year - so his timing is excellent for opting out.

OTOH, does anybody know whether he still actually wants to or likes playing for / in Boston? He has 2 WS rings, but maybe he questions how realistic the prospect is of getting back to the playoffs with the Red Sox in 2023. I wonder if the negotiations include questions like "what's the plan to get the team back to the playoffs next year? or "What's the long term plan?"

Xander has been in the league for 10 years, an all-star caliber player for maybe 4-6 years, and has 1410 hits going into his age 30 season, so maybe he also has an eye on history. I have heard somewhere that he actually likes Boston - but after this past year how sure are we this is still the case?

 

[chawson]

Xander has been in the league for 10 years, an all-star caliber player for maybe 4-6 years, and has 1410 hits going into his age 30 season, so maybe he also has an eye on history. I have heard somewhere that he actually likes Boston - but after this past year how sure are we this is still the case?

This doesn’t directly answer your question, but this section of an Oct. 25 story in the Athletic (Jen McCaffrey) was interesting:

If Bogaerts signs a long-term deal, would it make it easier for the Red Sox to find a deal with Devers?

“I don’t know about that one. I think at the end of the day, in that aspect it’s business,” Cora said.

“To be honest,” he added, “when we talk, we talk about the future. That’s the thing about this whole thing, I have never talked to Xander like – I include him in everything we’re planning on doing and that’s the plan at the end.”

For Cora, an ideal world includes both Devers and Bogaerts returning on long-term deals, a chance for them to keep forging their friendship in Boston while solidifying the heart of the order for years to come.

“Of course that’s the goal,” Devers said. “But we know this is a business and you have to do what’s best for you and your family. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, but for me it’s always going to be an honor and a privilege to play beside Xander and what he means for me and the team and everybody here.”

 

[JM3]

And also you don’t start with a low-ball offer when you are in free agency. It’s now closer to an auction than a negotiation. Offering 5/135 when 6/180 is probably immediately on the table from someone else will mark the end of your participation.

I would expect this to be more the let's have enough mutual respect for eachother for X to go out & find his best offers & then see if the Red Sox want to compete with them phase.

They've offered whatever they've offered & I'm sure that's on the table until it isn't, & I'd think the Red Sox would have enough respect for X to tell him before they move on & take it off the table.

 

[streeter88]

This doesn’t directly answer your question, but this section of an Oct. 25 story in the Athletic (Jen McCaffrey) was interesting:

If Bogaerts signs a long-term deal, would it make it easier for the Red Sox to find a deal with Devers?

...

For Cora, an ideal world includes both Devers and Bogaerts returning on long-term deals, a chance for them to keep forging their friendship in Boston while solidifying the heart of the order for years to come.

“Of course that’s the goal,” Devers said. “But we know this is a business and you have to do what’s best for you and your family. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, but for me it’s always going to be an honor and a privilege to play beside Xander and what he means for me and the team and everybody here.”

I didn't notice at first, but the bottom quote from Devers is really thoughtful and hearfelt, and to me that would indicate how important it is to get Xander re-signed, and then springboard to re-signing Devers.

That said, I think if I were HOBO, the Red Sox would probably be waaaay underwater. But maybe the fans would be happier.

 

[chawson]

I didn't notice at first, but the bottom quote from Devers is really thoughtful and hearfelt, and to me that would indicate how important it is to get Xander re-signed, and then springboard to re-signing Devers.

That said, I think if I were HOBO, the Red Sox would probably be waaaay underwater. But maybe the fans would be happier.

The whole article goes right for the feelers. I think we're overlooking somewhat how much extending one could influence the other.

"He's my friend, my brother. It's something I can't explain," Devers said through interpreter Carlos Villoria Benítez. "I haven't thought about anything negative, so I'm still thinking he'll come back to the team next year and that's my mindset."

Devers and Bogaerts have grown so close in the seven years they've played alongside each other, they have an unspoken understanding of what the other needs.

"Each one suffers the other one," manager Alex Cora said. "Like, they have joy when they're going well, but when they go bad, they (both) suffer. It's amazing. It's like suffering by two."

(That's pushing it in terms of how much of that paywalled article I could share, but I think The Athletic typically allows a few reads per month before requiring a sub.)

 

[streeter88]

The whole article goes right for the feelers. I think we're overlooking somewhat how much extending one could influence the other.

(That's pushing it in terms of how much of that paywalled article I could share, but I think The Athletic typically allows a few reads per month before requiring a sub.)

Reading it now (NYT subscriber).

Thanks for the thoughtful responses. I have a foreboding that this off-season is going to be more full of angst and regret than not. As stated upthread, baseball is supposed to be entertainment, and the world is trending a lot like that entertainment is going to be sorely needed over the next year or so.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

They may not be a "package deal," but I think their relationship is such that if we don't re-sign Xander then the chances of extending Raffy go from "probable" to 50/50 at best.

 

[Ganthem]

They may not be a "package deal," but I think their relationship is such that if we don't re-sign Xander then the chances of extending Raffy go from "probable" to 50/50 at best.

That tracks. If Bloom offers Devers the most money, Devers is going to say no thank you. I am going to take a lesser offer, because you didn't sign my best bud.

 

[mauf]

That tracks. If Bloom offers Devers the most money, Devers is going to say no thank you. I am going to take a lesser offer, because you didn't sign my best bud.

There is no “most money” this off-season for Devers. Either he negotiates an extension with the Red Sox, or he plays 2023 on a one-year deal.

If you’re going to come in here and drop snark in every thread, at least know your shit. Geez.

 

[Ganthem]

There is no “most money” this off-season for Devers. Either he negotiates an extension with the Red Sox, or he plays 2023 on a one-year deal.

If you’re going to come in here and drop snark in every thread, at least know your shit. Geez.

Obviously I was refering to when he hits free agency. Sorry I will spell things out very clearly for you next time.

 

[mikcou]

Obviously I was refering to when he hits free agency. Sorry I will spell things out very clearly for you next time.

If Devers gets to FA, hes likely gone - just as Xander is now. This isnt a team that has a history of getting significant deals done after their stars get to FA, its always before and that is generally reflective of the sport as a whole (e.g., Freddie Freeman to LA, Seager to TEX, etc.).

Their chance here is getting a deal done with Devers over the next 6-7 months (like Xander three years ago, hopefully without the opt-out this time) so if Xander and Devers are that close, it seems like it could be a significant impact.

 

[soxhop411]

Per Mark Feinsand

Boston’s Plan B?
Now that Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract and joined the free-agent ranks, how might the Red Sox approach the shortstop position this offseason?
Boston is still hopeful that it will be able to bring Bogaerts back on a new deal, but given the number of teams expected to be competing to sign one of the four star free-agent shortstops -- Turner, Correa and Dansby Swanson are also on the market -- it’s no certainty that the Red Sox will re-sign the 30-year-old Bogaerts.

Should Bogaerts sign elsewhere, it seems the plan is to move Trevor Story -- who inked a six-year, $140 million contract last offseason -- back to shortstop, where he played exclusively for the first six years of his career.
According to sources, the Red Sox have started reaching out to some teams regarding the availability of their second basemen, hoping to figure out Plan B in the likely event that Bogaerts leaves Boston.
“It doesn’t seem like they’re going to spend big on a shortstop,” one source said. “They knew this was a possibility when they signed Story last year.”

Move Story to SS and then trade for a 2B like Jake Cronenworth?
https://www.mlb.com/news/gm-meetings-intrigue-includes-opt-outs-qualifying-offers

 

[OCST]

If you subscribe to the idea of it being better to loose a player a year too early than be locked into a long term deal, this is when you let X go. There is no palatable short term solution, but does anyone think he's going to maintain his offensive performance into years 3, 4, 5, or farther out?

I hate hate hate the way the MLB FA rules set up this threshold that relatively few players get to and the ones that do as stars can command these insane deals. Just that we’re talking about farther out than 5 years, and a massive overpay for those later years, and that’s the way it has to be, by design.

 

[buttons]

Having a strong farm system allows some overpays
as players get older. No player in his prime is going
to agree to a short term deal unless he is coming
off of a really down year. We either need to take on
some long term contracts or be willing to field a mediocre
team for the immediate future.

 

[mauf]

Obviously I was refering to when he hits free agency. Sorry I will spell things out very clearly for you next time.

“Next time” won’t be for a while.

 

[Pat Spillane]

Have a feeling we will overpay. There is pressure from letting Betts walk and having Devers unsigned as of yet also. I can see an overpay coming, hopefully not too much of an albatross. The general fanbase will lose their minds if he signs elsewhere and pressure will be on to keep him

 

[BringBackMo]

Yeah. You’re probably right. But it’s frustrating to me how he has a pretty poor conception of the strike zone, in my opinion, for someone who people expect to get 30 million dollars a year. Because of that, too many bad at bats against good pitchers when it matters. For 30 million a year, I would expect more. i know your numbers don’t lie, but still, when I watch him i am frustrated by so many of his at bats. It’s my main gripe with Cora. I think his aggressive approach to all at bats gets in the way of hitters being patient and waiting for an actual good pitch to hit. i used to love the old Red Sox teams that used to get the other pitchers up to 100 pitches by the fifth inning. i just don’t think a 30 million dollar player should have twice as many strike outs as walks unless he is a power hitter providing big home Run and rbi numbers. Swinging so frequently out of the zone might contribute to his having so few home runs and rbis last year, and I suspect it will only get worse as he gets older.

Comparing just about anyone to three of the greatest hitters in baseball history—Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn—is unlikely to tell us much about that player’s value in the modern game. More generally, though, baseball is just completely different now. The MLB strikeout rate has been going up each year since essentially ever. It is literally double now what it was when Carew played.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml

Some of the increase is probably a change in hitting strategies that reflects today’s analytical understanding of the optimal approach at the plate. And some of it is probably the incredible rise in pitcher velocity and spin rates, which have led to way, way more strikeouts in general. In other words, it may not be a given that Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn would have had very different K rates in today’s game than they did in theirs, but it seems likely.

In any case, I think there’s broad agreement that Xander’s 2023 total package, including his K rate, makes him worth the $30-ish million per year he will likely earn somewhere next season. He’s one of the best shortstops in baseball. The question is simply how long a team will be paying him that annual salary, and how long he will continue to be worth it.

 

[chawson]

Per Mark Feinsand


Move Story to SS and then trade for a 2B like Jake Cronenworth?
https://www.mlb.com/news/gm-meetings-intrigue-includes-opt-outs-qualifying-offers

Cronenworth specifically would be extremely expensive. And while he’s a great player, these would be his age-29-31 seasons, which aren’t especially young and have a bit more risk of decline to them.

I don’t know why we wouldn’t just spend the money on Bogaerts or Correa.

 

[moondog80]

Cronenworth specifically would be extremely expensive. And while he’s a great player, these would be his age-29-31 seasons, which aren’t especially young and have a bit more risk of decline to them.

I don’t know why we wouldn’t just spend the money on Bogaerts or Correa.

I am skeptical that they would move Story to SS. We will see.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Just to put a fine point on the strikeout discussion, in 2022 there were just 6 qualified hitters in all of MLB who walked more than they struck out: Steven Kwan, Alejandro Kirk, Alex Bregman, Luis Arraez, Yandy Diaz, and Juan Soto. Soto had the best ratio of the bunch, with a league leading 135 walks to 96 strikeouts.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

I am skeptical that they would move Story to SS. We will see.

I agree. I also think Bloom would very much like everyone to believe they're willing to move Story back to short.

I don't think you can have much confidence in reports like that this time of year. With the data at their disposal, at least what we know of that's publicly available, I don't think moving Story to short just to create another gaping hole elsewhere in the infield makes much sense. Ideally, if Bogaerts walks, you'd spend big on an outfielder and fill SS more cheaply, but I don't think there's one available that fits what the Red Sox want to spend (meaning, Nimmo isn't quite good enough and the Judge contract will likely be untenable). Given the constraints of the roster and the players available, it makes a lot of sense to me that they would be in on all of the big four shortstops to some degree.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Comparing just about anyone to three of the greatest hitters in baseball history—Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn—is unlikely to tell us much about that player’s value in the modern game. More generally, though, baseball is just completely different now. The MLB strikeout rate has been going up each year since essentially ever. It is literally double now what it was when Carew played.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml

Some of the increase is probably a change in hitting strategies that reflects today’s analytical understanding of the optimal approach at the plate. And some of it is probably the incredible rise in pitcher velocity and spin rates, which have led to way, way more strikeouts in general. In other words, it may not be a given that Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn would have had very different K rates in today’s game than they did in theirs, but it seems likely.

In any case, I think there’s broad agreement that Xander’s 2023 total package, including his K rate, makes him worth the $30-ish million per year he will likely earn somewhere next season. He’s one of the best shortstops in baseball. The question is simply how long a team will be paying him that annual salary, and how long he will continue to be worth it.

Did the era of those guys also feature the extreme defensive shifts? I honestly don’t recall.
I just hope that some players and managers see the changes for next season as an opportunity to utilize low SLG players with some speed and high combined BA and walk rates at the top of the order.
And hope that Duran specifically can find a place there

 

[chawson]

I am skeptical that they would move Story to SS. We will see.

I am too. I think this is a little bit of a smokescreen, or just some anxiously recycled reporting.

For one thing, I don’t know what second baseman they’d trade for who would be so assuredly better than Arroyo to be worth giving up the prospects. Arroyo was unlucky early on, and from his return from the IL on June 24 hit .333/.368/.460.

Arroyo, '22: .319 wOBA, .330 expected wOBA, 42.1% HardHit% | +5 DRS at 2B (310 innings)
Cronenworth, '22: .320 wOBA, .303 expected wOBA, 33.8 HardHit% | +2 DRS at 2B (1240 innings)

I'm only comparing the two because Cronenworth was floated as a target, and this is not to pick on the poster who floated him. In a vacuum, I'd take Cronenworth over Arroyo too. But if acquiring Cronenworth means giving up at least Mayer/Casas/Yorke/Bello plus (and it would), then I don't see how that's worth it.

 

[joe dokes]

Did the era of those guys also feature the extreme defensive shifts? I honestly don’t recall.
I just hope that some players and managers see the changes for next season as an opportunity to utilize low SLG players with some speed and high combined BA and walk rates at the top of the order.
And hope that Duran specifically can find a place there

I dont think it did. And, tbh, I think a defense intentionally leaving an infield gap for any of those three would have led to at least one of them hitting .400. Trying to cover the most ground possible by evenly spacing the infielders was probably the best hope. (I saw Boggs a million times more in person than the others, and it would be impossible to overstate his ability to hit in the mid-80s. As often cited here, in one of those years, he had only a handful of popups in 700 PAs. He hit like he was hitting off a tee. Whereever he wanted.)
And maybe if not Duran, than someone like Hamilton, who in recent past years would be downgraded for his lack of power, but whose natural hitting style seems more suited for a less shifty time.

 

[Whoop-La White]

For one thing, I don’t know what second baseman they’d trade for who would be so assuredly better than Arroyo to be worth giving up the prospects. Arroyo was unlucky early on, and from his return from the IL on June 24 hit .333/.368/.460.

Arroyo, '22: .319 wOBA, .330 expected wOBA, 42.1% HardHit% | +5 DRS at 2B (310 innings)
Cronenworth, '22: .320 wOBA, .303 expected wOBA, 33.8 HardHit% | +2 DRS at 2B (1240 innings)

I'm only comparing the two because Cronenworth was floated as a target, and this is not to pick on the poster who floated him. In a vacuum, I'd take Cronenworth over Arroyo too. But if acquiring Cronenworth means giving up at least Mayer/Casas/Yorke/Bello plus (and it would), then I don't see how that's worth it.

Arroyo’s profile reminds me of Jed Lowrie—versatile with interesting power, but can’t stay on the field long enough to trust that you can use him as a starter. He’ll be 28 next year, so if there’s a higher ceiling to reach he’s running out of time to reach it, but he’d need to play to see if he can get there.

But I think I understand your larger point—there are currently options on the roster, albeit imperfect, for middle infield should Bogaerts walk.

If the idea is to lock down a hedge option while the negotiations with Bogaerts and Boras drag out, I’d think about Jose Iglesias. .322/.798 career AVG/OPS at Fenway in 252 PAs. You couldn’t expect him to sustain that for a full season, but I think he could be good enough to be surprising—he has played well here in two stints and seemed to enjoy it here. If Bogaerts does return he’d be a solid IF backup, a role he's had before (and if Story misses as many games as he did last year, he’ll have playing time). If not, then at least you’ve got a bridge to Mayer, and can look to make up offense elsewhere in the lineup.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Cronenworth specifically would be extremely expensive. And while he’s a great player, these would be his age-29-31 seasons, which aren’t especially young and have a bit more risk of decline to them.

I don’t know why we wouldn’t just spend the money on Bogaerts or Correa.

I don't believe that report that they won't spend big on a shortstop. I can't imagine they think Story can last all season with his arm troubles there. Sign a big name SS and pair him up with Story and your middle infield is set. If not Bogaerts, I'm of the mind that Dansby Swanson would be a more than capable player at nearly half the cost that Turner or Correa may come with. It's probably a long shot he leaves Atlanta, but same with Freddie Freeman last year.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Problem with Arroyo is that he’s rarely available to play. Pencil him in as a starter and get ready for lots of at bats for Jeter Downs and the like .

Why are the Sox spending big on a SS other than Bogaerts when the crown jewel of the loaded farm system that we are rebuilding from…is a SS? Seems inconsistent to me. I think if they want to give out a big deal to a SS it will likely only be with the guy they already have.

 

[Ale Xander]

If Devers gets to FA, hes likely gone - just as Xander is now. This isnt a team that has a history of getting significant deals done after their stars get to FA, its always before and that is generally reflective of the sport as a whole (e.g., Freddie Freeman to LA, Seager to TEX, etc.).

Their chance here is getting a deal done with Devers over the next 6-7 months (like Xander three years ago, hopefully without the opt-out this time) so if Xander and Devers are that close, it seems like it could be a significant impact.

I agree with your larger point but the Freeman example isn’t a good one. That was a hometown signing plus it included a major gaffe by the Braves.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Obviously I was refering to when he hits free agency. Sorry I will spell things out very clearly for you next time.

This snarky shit is unnecessary.

 

[nvalvo]

If we hear that this FO, which manages information very carefully, is moving on from Bogaerts, planning to shift Story SS and inquiring about second basemen, there are two possibilities:

• That is actually happening.
• It's a negotiating ploy to suggest that their BATNA is something more appealing than a Correa megadeal: it could be acquiring a younger 2B or even putting Kiké there and adding an outfielder.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

“Next time” won’t be for a while.

wish we had a thumbs up button

 

[8slim]

Let me ask this... how many dumb front offices do we think there are at the moment?

I ask because there seems to be some consensus about (a) "someone" will offer Xander an 8 year deal, and (b) that's not something the Sox should want any part of.

But given (b) how many franchises are doing to do (a)? Xander isn't Harper or Judge or Betts. I don't see him as the kind of guy that a dumb front office can sell to their fan base as worthy of a massive 8 year deal.

Maybe I'm totally wrong, but I can't squint and see someone doing that. Is there a team that will?

 

[catsooey]

No value in ice cream cakes.

You make a Betty Crocker chocolate, vanilla, and lemon cake and you covered your bases with the same resources, leaving plenty of flexibility to ice the cake as well.

I was with you up to the lemon part. And dark chocolate would be good, not too sweet. ‍

 

[E5 Yaz]

Let me ask this... how many dumb front offices do we think there are at the moment?

I ask because there seems to be some consensus about (a) "someone" will offer Xander an 8 year deal, and (b) that's not something the Sox should want any part of.

But given (b) how many franchises are doing to do (a)? Xander isn't Harper or Judge or Betts. I don't see him as the kind of guy that a dumb front office can sell to their fan base as worthy of a massive 8 year deal.

Maybe I'm totally wrong, but I can't squint and see someone doing that. Is there a team that will?

I think these are all very valid questions. The cliche is that "it only takes one," but with four high-level shortstops on the market it's a little like a game of musical chairs with an unknown number of chairs.
It could well come down to Boston's best offer against a better offer (regardless of length), and at that point Xander might just decide to stay.