Xander Bogaerts has opted out of his contract
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Lol. Heyman again.
Boras mouthpiece. So i take it with a million grains of salt.
Seems like their prediction is more built around a "Bloom's not going to spend" stance than on anything to do about X's or Atlanta's preferences.
This piece has the Sox' payroll at around 137 million once the top 50 free agents are accounted for. It's not to be taken seriously.
No worries, wasn't calling you out. Any major site doing their FA projections is postworthy.
Exactly. Anyone quoting Heyman about Sox FAs should be required to format their posts like an E.E. Cummings haiku, like @buttons.
This FO isn't leaking anything. We'll know when we know.
For anyone not watching closely, Heyman has of course long been a mouthpiece for Boras but also this past year or so since he has been hired by the NY Post, he has seemed to absolutely stop trying. His pieces now usually aren't even worth clicking through on, especially when so many better reporters are following the same situations.
Also I subscribed to Sports Illustrated the actual print magazine for 35-40 years and for a long time, it was a highlight of many of my weeks. But now they have no credibility anymore, a la Newsweek, that piece above is also not worth clicking on with so many of the same pieces out there that are way better done. I stopped looking at this one at #8 with Willson Contreras to CLE, @Sad Sam Jones can confirm that they would never invest big in a subpar defensive catcher.
Also I subscribed to Sports Illustrated the actual print magazine for 35-40 years and for a long time, it was a highlight of many of my weeks. But now they have no credibility anymore, a la Newsweek, that piece above is also not worth clicking on with so many of the same pieces out there that are way better done. I stopped looking at this one at #8 with Willson Contreras to CLE, @Sad Sam Jones can confirm that they would never invest big in a subpar defensive catcher.
I always like the Fangraphs one because they crowdsource an average in addition to the writer's own projection, they are usually in the ballpark after the smoke clears.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/
The Sox are under pressure to keep him in the fold, but perhaps I’m in the minority here as I think Boras is under a fair amount of pressure as well.
Boras too had years to sort an extension for his super hi visibility client that seemingly wants to remain with his current team and fills a need, even with a HOBO that definitely doesn’t want to set the market.
Boras might well cultivate a fat offer from someone else, and I’ve enjoyed the game theory posts on which teams that might be, but if Xander ends up leaving it better be to be a big # and ideally a winning situation.
Boras too had years to sort an extension for his super hi visibility client that seemingly wants to remain with his current team and fills a need, even with a HOBO that definitely doesn’t want to set the market.
Boras might well cultivate a fat offer from someone else, and I’ve enjoyed the game theory posts on which teams that might be, but if Xander ends up leaving it better be to be a big # and ideally a winning situation.
Yeah, Fangraphs is the best one of these IMO. They do all the analytic stuff but also mix in the reality of how teams actually operate.
Boras was noticeably non-abrasive (he didn;t say the Sox were "gambling") in these comments:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/sports/agent-scott-boras-says-red-sox-are-gambling-with-xander-bogaerts-heading-into-free-agency/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/sports/agent-scott-boras-says-red-sox-are-gambling-with-xander-bogaerts-heading-into-free-agency/
This seems pretty straightforward: X is looking to be paid a market rate in an extension and would have preferred to have that locked in while minimizing his risk. The Sox negotiated, but saw no reason to set the market and just bid against themselves and Boras’s demands. X preformed as he did (single season improvement on SS defense, continued decline in SLG) and opted out. Everyone telegraphed this outcome well in advance from back when X announced he would opt out. The only thing that would’ve derailed this would’ve been X either having a horrible down year or getting injured and not opting out.
It will be interesting to see where his market winds up. I think the most likely course is he gets some big offers, but ultimately re-signs with the Sox for slightly less than some other offer, of which who it was only leaks latter and had a lot of deferred money. But I think the second most likely option is another her team making an offer well above the Sox’s valuation and he leaves, with polite regrets expressed in his he media all around.
It will be interesting to see where his market winds up. I think the most likely course is he gets some big offers, but ultimately re-signs with the Sox for slightly less than some other offer, of which who it was only leaks latter and had a lot of deferred money. But I think the second most likely option is another her team making an offer well above the Sox’s valuation and he leaves, with polite regrets expressed in his he media all around.
There was were like two pitchers alive for any combination of those players you mentioned that could throw 100 with a wipeout breaking ball and they were Randy Johnson and Billy Wagner. There are like a million of those guys now and thousands more waiting in the minors.
With Bogaerts and Devers
Heyman
Has been
Consistently Right
It's not that hard to use this format.
Agree! Everyone is just sort of playing their roles correctly, which ends with the free agent market as the venue in which to figure this out. People want to read a lot into their past interactions, but Bogey ended the season without changing his tune at all, so I don't think that the relationship was irreparably harmed.
Agree nothing irreparable as well, but I still don’t get the Kabuki theatre of making a lowball offer knowing where it leads: ‘ no’ coupled with bad press.
Do fans in the other markets also get worked up at their GMs doing this? I don’t remember an X equivalent to the actual Judge widely circulated offer being leaked, for example.
Translation: I probably shouldn't hold off until late March in case they wait me out as usual.
Well, which is worse, making an offer that’s low or leaking that they haven’t engaged X/ Boras at all?
It’s a negotiation. The Sox were bidding to buy out the option and add guaranteed money, while absorbing the risk of a down year or injury that would otherwise have limited X’s market value now. His side (Boras) is very good at getting the media and fan base up in arms to save their (current) favorite player, but their goal was to get a guaranteed market rate/ overpayment without the risk of playing out 2022.
Either side can try and bring in the fans/ media, but I don’t think that creates real leverage With the people who write the contract or sign the checks.
edited to add the post I’m replying to
Last edited:
Judge got offered a massive deal, which was a reasonable reflection of his market value a year from free agency prior to his otherwordly season. I dont think there would have been an uproar if the Red Sox offered Xander 6/150. They offered 4/90, when he was already guaranteed 3/60 - the reaction was to the joke offer - not that the offer was rejected.
Right about what? Devers has never been to FA and X signed an extension in 2019. Perhaps I’m not following.
Right about the players being far apart in negotiations for their new contracts.
Wait, the Sox brass haven’t been in the DR for the last three weeks celebrating Raffy’s birthday and working on a new deal?
I mean, who has “confirmed” that? I get that it’s likely correct but this particular observation is neither breaking news nor particularly detailed.
Assuming Heyman *is* Boras’s mouthpiece, his reporting on Xander could just as easily be him spouting what Boras wants for Xander as much as anything.
My sense all year (just my intuition) has been that Xander has been caught a bit in the middle between Boras and the Sox FO. Xander came out too many times saying he wanted to do a deal only to be contradicted by Boras for me to think otherwise.
I actually think we collectively undersell X a bit given how consistently good he has been. He’s not MVP-caliber. He’s not as good as Nomar was. But he’s a notch ahead of Valentin (who was also underrated) and better than Rooster, which puts him at #2 among Sox SS during my 47+ years of fandom.
Hope they find a way to keep him.
Some predictions now out for X:
Fangraphs - 7/217 (31 AAV)
Fangraphs crowdsource - 6/168 (28 AAV)
MLBTR - 7/189 (27 AAV)
I think the years will be more important to X than maximizing AAV so I would be surprised if he signs for less than 7 years. I will be disappointed if he signs somewhere else for 7/189 and would be fine going up to 7/196.
Fangraphs - 7/217 (31 AAV)
Fangraphs crowdsource - 6/168 (28 AAV)
MLBTR - 7/189 (27 AAV)
I think the years will be more important to X than maximizing AAV so I would be surprised if he signs for less than 7 years. I will be disappointed if he signs somewhere else for 7/189 and would be fine going up to 7/196.
Last edited:
I would prefer a 5 year deal, but wouldn't mind the MLBTR prediction. 7 years HAS to include a conversation about moving on from SS in a few years if Mayer is ready. I miss the days of players being on one team for their career and hope X wants it as much as we do.
I think there’s still a chance for the Sox to get X on a team friendly deal that’s still fair to him and gives him much of what he likely wants - decent $, long term stability, and the chance to finish his whole career here. Offer him a 6 year deal in the $160-165 range, with 2-3 additional player option years at $25m each, that kick in with 550 PAs in the prior season. X has been healthy, so he’d likely be confident now about being able to exercise those options. Total possible money is well over $200M, so it seems closer to fair value. Provides some protection to the club for health-related decline.
I think he’s likely to get better guaranteed offers, but if he wants to stay in Boston, something like this might be enough. It’s got a little of the Wakefield deal in it and is not far off of what MN did with Buxton last year.
I would do the MLBTR 7/189 in a heartbeat.
But I had also earlier (in the other thread) suggested offering two option years to Bogey to give him the prospect of a "lifetime" contract (although I think I suggested 502PA, which I think is still the qualifying threshold for the batting title (3.1PA/gm). Ideally, as MM suggests above, it's 6 years guaranteed and 2 (or even 3) option years that can vest, but I'd go 7 guaranteed with 1 or 2 option years if that gets the deal done.
There's really no excuse for them not to make a deal.
X has been underpaid for his productivity throughout his career here--why would he be concerned about protecting the club on the back end of his contract? There's "team-friendly" and then there's "masochistic," which is what 6/165 w/options would be in light of the other offers he's likely to get.
Is it really fair to him when he's already done one team friendly deal?
I think at this point, "fair" to Boston would be Bogaerts finding out his market value and offering Boston the opportunity to match it. Pretty much what I hope Judge does with the Yankees.
Yes, that would be fair to Boston. But X gets to decide what he considers fair. Pedroia did this. He signed a six-year extension in 2008, and then another team friendly deal in 2013. Ortiz signed multiple extensions that didn’t seem to maximize his earnings potential. Players do this when they don’t believe the grass is greener elsewhere, even if the money is. Heck, people do this in their careers all the time. I’ve taken multiple jobs that paid less than what I could have got elsewhere because I liked other non-monetary aspects of the position.
Look, I’m not saying that X getting or taking a more lucrative deal from someone else is unfair. I’m also not saying that he’s likely to take a deal that’s 75% or less of what he might get or expect to get from another team. But somewhere between, say, 80% of FMV and 100% is an offer that he might just take from Boston because he wants to stay. If that is a significant motivating factor for him, then the team’s offer will not necessarily have to match the best offer 100%.
Last edited:
I don't know. Did someone offer him 7/210 or 6/180? Because that's what the conversation is predicated on when talking about X. If 6/165 is the best the market has to offer then no, it's obviously not masochistic for X to take it. (X is actually a free agent as well, which makes a comparison apples to oranges).
If I'm Chaim, I put my best offer out there, and let him see if anyone else beats it by enough to switch teams. The only one who can decide a fair hometown discount is X, let's leave it to him. But going in low and trying to sell it on sentimental reasons will turn out like the Lester negotiations.
Last edited:
That would be a great fit for him and for the team. Obviously hope it doesn't come to pass but it makes a lot of sense.
Scott Boras's wind-up monkey reports that the MFY are interested in X (and other good SS).
https://nypost.com/2022/11/15/yankees-could-make-star-shortstop-their-aaron-judge-backup-plan/
https://nypost.com/2022/11/15/yankees-could-make-star-shortstop-their-aaron-judge-backup-plan/
Does Boras use a spreadsheet that he made in like 2003 to market players? Same damn thing every single time. Scottie needs to read some Sun Tzu.
In fairness, Ben Clemens (who wrote the FanGraphs top 50 FA article) was on Effectively Wild a couple episodes back and talked up the Yankees as a potential landing spot. They need someone who can play SS for a couple years before one of their prospects take over, and unlike the Sox their situations at 2B and 3B are not locked in long term.
I know it's heresy to say this around these parts, but I would be thrilled if the Yankees were the top bidder for Xander @ 5+ years / $28M+ AAV per. I think they're too sophisticated an organization to make a move like that.
Xander is a career .815 OPS hitter, but that figure is goosed by a .872 OPS home Fenway split. His career OPS in the Toilet is .700. Replacing a .872 home OPS with a .700 OPS would turn Xander into something like a .730 OPS hitter. $28M+ for a .730 OPS aging shortstop losing some XBH pop seems like a bad use of resources. But he would represent an upgrade over Kiner-Falefa at SS or Donaldson at 3B.
Last edited: