When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

shaggydog2000

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After the rough stretch last week, he had a nice series vs. the Yankees at the plate.

Since May 3, he's at .265 / .370 / .444 / .814. 20 BB vs 33K in 138 PA.
He's hit .234/.367/.396 for a 113 WRC+ since 4/15. He had two bad weeks to start the year and two good months since. I think his bat will be at least above average, especially once his power fully kicks in.

The defense is a work in progress, but having a better throwing SS will help. Hard to look good in the situation he's in.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Makes you wonder how much of that is bad luck, how much is rookie "hazing", and how much of it is the umps resenting the way he calls pitch locations out loud.
I do wonder if the umps expand the zone for big guys. IIRC, I remember Judge getting robbed a lot his rookie season on borderline calls. Which would suggest it's a combo of rookie hazing and size of the batter
 

BigSoxFan

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I do wonder if the umps expand the zone for big guys. IIRC, I remember Judge getting robbed a lot his rookie season on borderline calls. Which would suggest it's a combo of rookie hazing and size of the batter
He’s not a big guy but I watch a lot of Corbin Carroll because he’s an insane talent and he was getting boned pretty good early on in the year by umps based on what I saw. Like, it felt like almost hazing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I do wonder if the umps expand the zone for big guys. IIRC, I remember Judge getting robbed a lot his rookie season on borderline calls. Which would suggest it's a combo of rookie hazing and size of the batter
I think they absolutely expand the zone on taller players like Judge, especially on pitches above and below the zone. That still happens to him, I think. Pitches below his knee would be above a lot of other players' knees and the umps call them strikes regardless. I don't think that is as much the case when we're talking pitches that are off the plate inside or outside though. Those are more often than not strikes that the catcher "steals" with his framing.
 

8slim

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If this board had been around in 1982, some members would be advocating trading Wade Boggs due to his craptastic play in the field and his lack of power.
This board? For a guy who had an OPS of 847 and finished 3rd in the RoY voting? This board would have been in deep, romantic love with Boggs.

But if your point is you can always find *someone* to say something silly, then sure, great point.
 

Rovin Romine

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This board? For a guy who had an OPS of 847 and finished 3rd in the RoY voting? This board would have been in deep, romantic love with Boggs.

But if your point is you can always find *someone* to say something silly, then sure, great point.
Quite possibly why I used the words "some members," don't you think?
 

LoLsapien

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101wRC+ now with a very reasonable K rate and good barrel/hard contact numbers. The kid will be fine.
Currently 20th among MLB 1st baseman in that batting category. Already 15th in ISO with an xSLG 0.057 higher than SLG. BABIP 0.265. Anthony Rizzo 15th with a 116 WRC+, for reference.

I'm really enjoying watching him grind his way up the rankings, he was 23rd in WRC+ just a week or so ago.
 

pokey_reese

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[month: OPS / wRC+]

Mar/Apr: .576 / 61
May: .766 / 108
June: .894 / 146

His May numbers would have been perfectly acceptable for a rookie, and his June numbers are fantastic. He is one of only 15 players who have enough PAs to qualify for a batting title and are under 24 years old. I'm genuinely not sure how there have been any negative posts in this thread over the past month, but here we are.

Although, I was at the park on Sunday, and looking at his picture up on the scoreboard during his ABs I noticed that he had a real muppet smile. So maybe that's something we can pick on.
 

shaggydog2000

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[month: OPS / wRC+]

Mar/Apr: .576 / 61
May: .766 / 108
June: .894 / 146

His May numbers would have been perfectly acceptable for a rookie, and his June numbers are fantastic. He is one of only 15 players who have enough PAs to qualify for a batting title and are under 24 years old. I'm genuinely not sure how there have been any negative posts in this thread over the past month, but here we are.

Although, I was at the park on Sunday, and looking at his picture up on the scoreboard during his ABs I noticed that he had a real muppet smile. So maybe that's something we can pick on.
Making fun of a player for having a Muppet smile? Can you picture that?

 

YTF

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Makes you wonder how much of that is bad luck, how much is rookie "hazing", and how much of it is the umps resenting the way he calls pitch locations out loud.
I’ve been wondering about the bolded as well. I can’t imagine that’s endearing him with the umpires.
I wasn't aware of this. If that's going on, someone needs to get in his ear and tell him to knock that shit off. In certain circumstances he's not just hurting himself, but his team as well. If you catch the right (wrong) ump who feels that he's being shown up and that it's being allowed by the team you may see an increase in calls going against the Sox. There are more than a couple of shitty umps out there who really don't need encouragement to become shittier umps.
 

LogansDad

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I wasn't aware of this. If that's going on, someone needs to get in his ear and tell him to knock that shit off. In certain circumstances he's not just hurting himself, but his team as well. If you catch the right (wrong) ump who feels that he's being shown up and that it's being allowed by the team you may see an increase in calls going against the Sox. There are more than a couple of shitty umps out there who really don't need encouragement to become shittier umps.
It's been reported on, and he talks to the umpires when he comes up for his first at bat in every game. I don't think it's really caused him any issues so far, to be honest.
 

LogansDad

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Sounds like a compulsive thing? Nothing personal? Anyway...
I don't know about compulsive, he's just a really quirky dude. Early in the season the microphones were tuned differently and you could clearly hear him calling out where he thought the pitch was as it was coming through ("LOW", for instance).

I can't remember if they just talked about him chatting with the umps in his first at bat on NESN (or whichever opposing team feed I was watching that day) a couple weeks ago or if I read it somewhere, but he's clearly making a conscious effort to not get on the umpires' bad sides. They then showed him in his first at bat walking up and kind of pulling the umpire aside to talk to him. It's nothing he does to be disrespectful to them, and I can't remember a single instance of him really arguing with one of their calls when he disagreed (disappointment, sure, but I don't think he has argued once), so I really don't think it is an issue.
 

soxhop411

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I don't know about compulsive, he's just a really quirky dude. Early in the season the microphones were tuned differently and you could clearly hear him calling out where he thought the pitch was as it was coming through ("LOW", for instance).

I can't remember if they just talked about him chatting with the umps in his first at bat on NESN (or whichever opposing team feed I was watching that day) a couple weeks ago or if I read it somewhere, but he's clearly making a conscious effort to not get on the umpires' bad sides. They then showed him in his first at bat walking up and kind of pulling the umpire aside to talk to him. It's nothing he does to be disrespectful to them, and I can't remember a single instance of him really arguing with one of their calls when he disagreed (disappointment, sure, but I don't think he has argued once), so I really don't think it is an issue.
Just when you thought you had seen it all from Triston Casas, along comes this ...

The rookie first baseman, who has already distinguished himself for out-of-the-ordinary routines during his young Major League Baseball career, is separating himself once again. This time, the approach has necessitated some uncomfortable conversations with the umpires.

As it turns out, Casas doesn't have much of a filter when it comes to his time in the batter's box, which is why there were more than a few early-season in-bat conversations with the umps.

Casas likes to oftentimes yell out where he believes the pitch is going to land when not swinging at it. Initially, this was taken as a slight by many home plate umpires, who believed the hitter was trying to steal calls with his verbalization. But, no, according to Casas. It's all just part of his process.

"First and foremost, it’s just a reaction," Casas told WEEI.com. "It’s never anything that I tried to develop or tried to work on. I would say what happens in that four-tenths of a second, it’s too fast to describe and sometimes it’s so blurry you consider it luck at some point with the results. I feel like to stay in a competitive mindset, just growing up and trying to track the pitches as early as possible and try and make a determination where the pitch is going to head in the zone. When I yell something at myself it kind of stops my swing, as well. I’m in a yes, yes, yes, no mindset when I go up to the plate, anticipating a good pitch is going to come in the zone and then when it goes on the fringe, on the border of the strike zone I try and yell where it is just to myself. Obviously, everybody else hears it depending on how loud the crowd it is. Sometimes the umpires hear it and we have a back and forth discussion about it. I have had umpires who have taken offense to it, thinking I’m yelling at them to call a ball. Because it is in that location doesn’t necessarily mean that. He can disagree with me all he wants because that’s his job. I have gotten better at vocalizing my actions prior to them happening so it’s a proactive approach instead it’s reactive, mid-at-bat banter with the umpire."
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/triston-casas-latest-unique-approach-is-rankling-umpires
As Casas noted, the reaction by some MLB umpires to the process has necessitated preemptive strikes before he sees a single pitch. In the first baseman's eyes, it's all part of the evolution that comes with being immersed into the big leagues.

"I have just been telling the umpires I have a reactionary, Tourettes-like yelling problem that I can’t control and sometimes I can be loud enough they can hear. I don’t mean ay disrespect by it. It’s just my way of staying competitive in the box," he said.
Yah. Its an OCD type habit. He talks to the umpires before the game so they know he isnt doing it to show up the umps.
 
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shaggydog2000

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https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/triston-casas-latest-unique-approach-is-rankling-umpires

Yah. Its an OCD type habit. He talks to the umpires before the game so they know he isnt doing it to show up the umps.
It's a classic "If you win 20 in the show you can let the fungus grow on your shower shoes and the press will think're you colorful." thing. Once he succeeds, he'll be quirky and lovable. When he struggles, every difference needs to be hammered out of him.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't know what Casas will become as a player. He wouldn't be the first guy to struggle right out of the gate in his first year in the majors. But he seems to have made significant adjustments. Now, and I don't know if this is "real", but if his time since May 1 is what Casas really "is", here's what his numbers since May 1 are, and what they'd project to be over, say, 150 games:

39 G, 148 PA, 15 R, 34 H, 7 2b, 1 3b, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 20 BB, .268/.365/.457/.822

150 G, 569 PA, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2b, 4 3b, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 77 BB, .268/.365/.457/.822

Which would be pretty nice for a young player just starting out in the majors. That's really positive stuff to build off of. I'd like a lot more power when all is said and done, but that is a good young player right there.

(Of course the first month counts too, but the idea here is that maybe that was just his adjustment to the majors. One can hope, anyway!)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't know what Casas will become as a player. He wouldn't be the first guy to struggle right out of the gate in his first year in the majors. But he seems to have made significant adjustments. Now, and I don't know if this is "real", but if his time since May 1 is what Casas really "is", here's what his numbers since May 1 are, and what they'd project to be over, say, 150 games:

39 G, 148 PA, 15 R, 34 H, 7 2b, 1 3b, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 20 BB, .268/.365/.457/.822

150 G, 569 PA, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2b, 4 3b, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 77 BB, .268/.365/.457/.822

Which would be pretty nice for a young player just starting out in the majors. That's really positive stuff to build off of. I'd like a lot more power when all is said and done, but that is a good young player right there.

(Of course the first month counts too, but the idea here is that maybe that was just his adjustment to the majors. One can hope, anyway!)
Defense also looks improved. But as far as power goes... I suspect it's going to come soon. Since the early season, it looked more like he was looking to either not swing... or swing to kill. Now it looks like he's still being selective but trying to get his swing more balanced and making contact and it's working. I definitely predict he'll crank out a bunch in hot streaks and will go cold (both in power and batting average) over his career but will still land somewhere around .850 OPS and 30 HR's.
 

TFisNEXT

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Defense also looks improved. But as far as power goes... I suspect it's going to come soon. Since the early season, it looked more like he was looking to either not swing... or swing to kill. Now it looks like he's still being selective but trying to get his swing more balanced and making contact and it's working. I definitely predict he'll crank out a bunch in hot streaks and will go cold (both in power and batting average) over his career but will still land somewhere around .850 OPS and 30 HR's.
I know statscast isn't the ultimate arbitor, but it's pretty good, and it thinks Casas has been unlucky in the HR department. His "xHR" is 10 versus actual of 8. He's in the 88th percentile for barrel percentage and his launch angle is at 15%....those are an excellent combo for 30+ HR power. He's already showing the power in his batted ball metrics....it's only a matter of time before a few more start leaving the yard.
 

LogansDad

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I know statscast isn't the ultimate arbitor, but it's pretty good, and it thinks Casas has been unlucky in the HR department. His "xHR" is 10 versus actual of 8. He's in the 88th percentile for barrel percentage and his launch angle is at 15%....those are an excellent combo for 30+ HR power. He's already showing the power in his batted ball metrics....it's only a matter of time before a few more start leaving the yard.
I feel like he's had at least 4 that would have been home runs if not for the, shall we say, "environment" (i.e. 3 feet short on a cold day with weird wind patterns). I am unsure if he has had any that have been environment aided, but I feel like all of the ones I have seen have been just absolute no doubters. I really think this kid is going to hit really, really well, for a long time.
 

LoLsapien

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0.822 OPS would be a top half MLB 1B this year and last. His 0.180 ISO would have been top half last year. I think folks continue to misunderstand how depressed the offensive environment is, and how good a hitter this kid is, even if he doesn't ever improve over his post may1st performance.
 

LoLsapien

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With two hits today including a HR my man Triston finally got his WRC+ over 100! And, I hadn't looked at this stat previously, but his xwOBA is 14th among MLB first baseman, while his wOBA is still 20th. Will be interesting to see whether he can inch his wOBA up to 14th in the rankings and where his BABIP is at come the end of the season. It's up above 0.270 now.
 
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Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Hitting for average continues to be the least concerning of his tools. My dude looks like a future full-time DH the way he plays first.
 

Benj4ever

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Hitting for average continues to be the least concerning of his tools. My dude looks like a future full-time DH the way he plays first.
Sheets ball was scalded (102.9 mph EV), it took a bad hop, and it had English on it. Cora was being a perfect jerk when he said Casas "makes that play." Casas didn't make any excuses, but, having played first base, I'll make one for him. That's a tough play for anyone.
 

Harry Hooper

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Sheets ball was scalded (102.9 mph EV), it took a bad hop, and it had English on it. Cora was being a perfect jerk when he said Casas "makes that play." Casas didn't make any excuses, but, having played first base, I'll make one for him. That's a tough play for anyone.
I checked MLB and NESN, anyone have a link to video of this play?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Hey, if the coach and the player both say he should have made that play, then he should have made that play. It's a hard position to play for a reason, but most 1B would have probably made that play.
 

Benj4ever

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Hey, if the coach and the player both say he should have made that play, then he should have made that play. It's a hard position to play for a reason, but most 1B would have probably made that play.
Agree to disagree. His manager threw him under the bus. Casas was simply taking it like a man. The official scorer changed the play from an error to a hit, which is the right call.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Agree to disagree. His manager threw him under the bus. Casas was simply taking it like a man. The official scorer changed the play from an error to a hit, which is the right call.
Agreeing here…. That was a low rocket. Classic Jon Olerud probably makes that but not every time. Rightfully ruled a hit.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Here's video of the play. Terrible timing on the cut so you don't really get a sense of exactly what happened. The reaction of the White Sox announcers sure suggests that it was a difficult hop. The way Casas is twisted up indicates it wasn't exactly a routine grounder.

https://www.mlb.com/redsox/video/kenley-jansen-in-play-no-out-to-gavin-sheets?q=ContentTags+==+["hitting","gamepk-717629"]+Order+By+Timestamp+DESC&pt=Offensive+Highlights&p=0
I was hoping for a better replay, but I haven’t been able to find one.
 

reggiecleveland

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He was going backwards on that play. Youk was saying pregame that Casas needs to attack the ball, or just block balls like a catcher, use his size, not try to back up and pick the ball.
 

Max Power

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He was going backwards on that play. Youk was saying pregame that Casas needs to attack the ball, or just block balls like a catcher, use his size, not try to back up and pick the ball.
Yeah, but then it would be Casas's fault the winning run reached base instead of Cora's, so that can't be true.
 

Mantush

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With June nearly over, here's Casas' slash line by month:

April: .133/.283/.293/.576 in 92 PAs and BABIP of .152
May: .257/.338/.429/.766 in 80 PAs and BABIP of .326
June: .288/.380/.488/.868 in 92 PAs and BABIP of .351

For a guy with his power (FanGraphs' Game Power of 55/70 and Raw Power 70/70) he's not hitting many home runs but is putting up decentish XBH numbers (projected 34 2Bs over 162 games based on June). Have to wonder if/when the HRs are going to start but he's been one of the teams best hitters this month. Yoshida is slumping (.256/.326/.372/.698), Devers has been good (.242/.364/.484/.847) with a lot more HRs than Triston, Turner has been good (.299/.352/.526/.878) and Verdugo has been great (.322/.388/.506/.894). Only Verdugo and Turner have been better.

Defense aside, I'm very happy with how he's doing and how he's responded to a very rough start. Hoping he can keep this up. Watching him progress in real time has been enjoyable.
 
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BaseballJones

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Casas:

Through May 1: 26 G, 96 PA, 14 r, 10 h, 3 2b, 0 3b, 3 hr, 8 rbi, .128/.281/.282/.563
Since May 1: 46 G, 172 PA, 16 r, 42 h, 8 2b, 1 3b, 6 hr, 19 rbi, .278/.361/.464/.824

And then he also went 1-1 today with a double to add to those numbers.

Dude has been fantastic at the plate for two months now.