When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx
- Thread starter koufax32
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One thing that stood out to me (and was mentioned in the article) is that for teammate Justin Turner, the thing he focuses on is "timing." I thought it was really interesting that for Casas, timing was third on his list of importance when it comes to hitting, but that he didn't seem to be dismissive or disrespecting Turner. Casas just has his own feelings about it. And while I agree that being too cerebral can have its drawbacks, a. Casas says he tries not to think too much at the plate and b. it's easier for me to identify with someone that thinks of hitting as more of a science rather than an art. I think it may make it easier for him to make adjustments as needed going forward. I'm reminded of an anecdote I heard once about Derek Lowe where he was discussing his sinker and he explained that if he moved one of his fingers an inch over that it really increased the movement on his pitch but that he didn't know why. Assumign he doesn't get too much into his own head, I think a cerebral approach will make it easier for him to identify problems if he gets out of whack rather than just trying to hope his swing returns. But YMMV, obviously. I'm a big nerd so my attitude is to be expected.
Well he did say he is cerebral in his preparation and then instinctual when at bat. These things are not mutually exclusive, each has its place in the execution of a physical craft - each needs the other essentially. His approach seems ideal, actually, a kind of dialectic -- between critical and intuitive capacities, between preparation and spontaneous natural ability -- that usually marks high level performance.
Much like being a musician. Definitely need to think about it carefully when learning and preparing but you want to basically be on autopilot when you play…. Thinking about what lyrics are next or what chord is…. Will guarantee to make you goof
Oppo is like singing off beat or having a syncopated rhythm. Very Van Morrison.
He had the mL pedigree that was plenty of evidence to show he just needed some time and patience facing ML pitching to adjust. Hopefully people continue to show that patience. When a guy is killing mL pitchers, it doesn't really help to keep on facing them- or specifically here, to be sent "back down" to "get your head straight" or whatever.
The underlying statcast metrics have supported his continuing improvement at the major league level. Here’s his rolling 100 PA xwOBA…steadily upward trend all season
edit: the dashed line is league average
I had to look it up after being concerned on missing 2 straight games (and watching games on mute), apparently Casas has a tooth infection. Cora said he went to the hospital, had it trained, will hopefully be available Monday.
I'm thinking we plant it in the earth at Minute Maid Park and see what comes up. Maybe an Altuve-sized Casas or something.
Great analogy. Think a lot about your practice so you don’t have to think when you play.
I’ve noticed myself actively cheering for TS to keep hitting so he can win ROY and earn the Sox an extra draft pick. I haven’t been keeping track of how the race is shaping up because I’ve just assumed it’ll be Yoshida, but the way Casas has been on fire since the ASB and really since May, I think it’s much closer. Any other AL contenders out there?
Is a separate, Sox centric ROY thread worthwhile?
Is a separate, Sox centric ROY thread worthwhile?
Yeah...
American League:
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): -700
Triston Casas (BOS): +750
Tanner Bibee (CLE): +1500
Masataka Yoshida (BOS): +1500
Josh Jung (TEX): +4500
https://www.si.com/fannation/betting/mlb-rookie-of-the-year
Because he plays at Fenway, based on ops+ Casas is only slightly better offensively and Henderson laps him defensively and on the bases. Depending on which war you look at it's either 4.6-1.6 or 3.2-1.3.
Didn't players who place second or third in ROY voting also yield some sort of benefit for their teams?
It looks like the CBA still isn't available anywhere.
It looks like the CBA still isn't available anywhere.
My recollection was that those benefits were going to be for the International Draft, but then they never ratified an International Draft.
So it's 1st place or bust. Which is a bit silly.
To dig into what y'all were saying, the Sporting News piece says "Players who earn second or third in Rookie of the Year voting earn their teams a pick in the international draft." Since there is no Int'l draft, do we think Casas finishing 2nd or 3rd is worthless? Or maybe they'll increase Int'l pool money?
One other thing that wasn't mentioned, from BA: "Players who meet all three of the criteria above and then win a Rookie of the Year award or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young Award balloting prior to qualifying for arbitration will net their clubs a PPI draft pick after the first round." So if Casas finishes top-3 in MVP by 2026 it also earns us a PPI pick. Quite unlikely, but we can dream on a fluky 50 HR year
I wonder how long into next season before there's a "When is it time to start worrying about Cedanne Rafaela" thread? I do worry it'll be more on point though. Casas plate discipline through the minors and all his batted ball profile stuff early in the season when the results werent' there always pointed towards him being an elite hitter. I am 100% behind Bloom trying to get him (and Bello) inked to long term deals sooner rather than later.
With Casas demonstrating plus opposite field power, and playing his home games at Fenway, couldn't he possibly have a career year of 50 homers, 50 doubles?
Combined with an improvement to average defense at first, that could be an MVP season, with guys like shank still getting votes?
Even if it's far fetched, we have enough guys coming down the pipeline that could give us many bites at the apple in the near future.
I was thinking more like "what kind of offensive season would Casas need to have in order to be MVP" than actually thinking it was likely.
First basemen MVPs have to have absolutely monster offensive years, and Casas doesn't look like he'll ever have gaudy batting average numbers, and his defense is hard to overlook at this point.
Joey Votto, Jason Giambi and Ryan Howard are recent-ish 1b MVPs with defense as an afterthought. I don't know if he could get to any of their levels, though Howard's 2006 was an outlier for him.
Votto, Abreu and Goldschmidt are all recent 1b MVPs as well with indifferent or negative dWAR results.
I guess if Casas has clearly the most dominant offensive season, the fact he is subpar at defense might be overlooked. Especially if the Sox are big winners that season.
I'm guessing that you're figuring on a bunch of wall ball doubles? I think Casas hits the ball hard enough that some of those balls are fielded very quickly and he has to hold at first.
His speed is never going to improve.
His defense maybe.
His offense. . .
Well, I wouldn't write him off just yet as his batting eye is unreal at 23 years old. Since his initial adjustment period, he's been on fire. From June 15 onward: .321/.406/.602 (1.008 OPS)
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Pretty damn gaudy. I don't know if he can do that for a whole season, but he's not necessarily a Rob Deer type.
In an attempt to have this thread come full circle, I’ll go ahead and say there’s definitely no chance he gets ROY.
I can see a path though where:
1. Enough voters discount WAR because of its extra weight given to SS compared to 1B, so they think the only fair way to compare is…
2. At the plate. Casas’ production continues to climb. He finishes at a .275 avg. a .875 ops., and an OPS+ of 130. Henderson meanwhile just kinda drifts across the finish line and finishes under .250, .800, and 120.
Let’s see if this thread has any mojo left in it.
I can see a path though where:
1. Enough voters discount WAR because of its extra weight given to SS compared to 1B, so they think the only fair way to compare is…
2. At the plate. Casas’ production continues to climb. He finishes at a .275 avg. a .875 ops., and an OPS+ of 130. Henderson meanwhile just kinda drifts across the finish line and finishes under .250, .800, and 120.
Let’s see if this thread has any mojo left in it.
