For sure, and maybe not a perfect analogy (though I do think Bill could still "flame out" given his age and if he gets in the wrong scenario).Like the bolded is true, but it's true because everyone you're drafting has zero track record in the NFL - and even picks that are supposed to have a 'high floor' still flame out a lot more often than former all-Pro players do.
More broadly, I think a 90th% percentile outcome for these coaching hires, while unlikely, is so valuable that is carries a lot of weight in hiring.
For a team on the verge like Dal/Buf/Phi a higher floor coach makes a lot more sense. But the teams with openings so far have a different perspective.