Alex Binelas first 44 AA games: .126/.233/.329; 11.9 BB%, 35.2 K%, .204 ISO, 53 wRC+I was never a fan of this deal, but I don't think we can close the book on it yet. Fingers crossed.
That’s still a craptastic walk rate.Alex Binelas first 44 AA games: .126/.233/.329; 11.9 BB%, 35.2 K%, .204 ISO, 53 wRC+
Alex Binelas last 11 AA games: .318/.340/.568; 4.2 BB%, 20.8 K%, .250 ISO, 140 wRC+
The jump from A+ to AA is enormous right now. Binelas looks like a guy who had been caught with too passive an approach, and was exploited in his first couple months of AA, getting behind in counts.
Eleven games are eleven games, but there’s enough evidence to support that he made an adjustment, and it worked for a little while. He had eight doubles in those last 11 games of the season, compared with only two in the first 44.
I hear you, but I don't think it's thaaaaaat unreasonable. The 11 games look like an outlier if you put them in only with the balance of the AA sample. If you put the whole 55 game stretch in context with his overall career, it looks like it might be a resumption after an adjustment period, of the kind of hitter he'd been in prior levels of pro ball.11 games?
COME ON, SON!
Even though I kind of assume the bolded to be snark, I don't necessarily think he's going to break a bone. But based on his frame and violent delivery, questions have always been around him about how Sale would hold up over the long term. Once he had the major injury, I have not been surprised at him having difficulty getting and staying healthy once the injuries started.Paxton, I can't say with much confidence that there isn't some lingering thing, but Sale broke bones. So which bones do you think he'll break next?
He will make roughly 25 starts.
Even without injury concerns, Sale has (almost) always hit the "E" mark on the tank sometime in August or September, going back to his White Sox days. So, even if he does manage to make it a year without being injured (unlikely), one cannot count on him to produce come crunch time.Even though I kind of assume the bolded to be snark, I don't necessarily think he's going to break a bone. But based on his frame and violent delivery, questions have always been around him about how Sale would hold up over the long term. Once he had the major injury, I have not been surprised at him having difficulty getting and staying healthy once the injuries started.
More likely I think he re-injures something in his pitching arm while trying to over-compensate than breaking a bone, but I'm for one not betting on him being both healthy AND effective for either of the next two seasons. If he is, great, we'll have a #1 / #2 caliber starter and that will be awesome, and I'll admit I'm wrong. I have zero problems with that, I'm wrong a lot. But I also don't want to hear "oh, you can't blame that on Bloom" if Sale misses significant time, or just is no longer an effective pitcher due to age and the injuries that have already started mounting.
Anyway, we can respectfully agree to disagree rather than clog up the board, but I didn't feel right not addressing a specific question.
Circling back around to this, @teddywingman is off the hook and will not have to root for Judge in the future. I have made my payment to the Jimmy Fund.$50 to the Jimmy Fund says that if the Sox sign Judge, you root for him.
If they don't sign him (very likely) I will toss them the $50 regardless.
This is overstated, I think. Is he the same pitcher in September as he is in June? No. But over his career, his September numbers are still those of a really good starting pitcher in MLB. Basically, we're damning him for not clearing the elite bar he sets the rest of the season. Interestingly, his April numbers and his August numbers are remarkably similar.Even without injury concerns, Sale has (almost) always hit the "E" mark on the tank sometime in August or September, going back to his White Sox days. So, even if he does manage to make it a year without being injured (unlikely), one cannot count on him to produce come crunch time.
Only irrational fears that he's "made of glass."I'm honestly asking - have there been any reports on Sale since the season ended? He was pretty good in 2021 after he returned from TJ surgery, but his injuries in 2022 were pretty abnormal. Is there a reason he isn't expected to pitch a normal workload in 2023?
Sounds good. I generally don't like being pessimistic about injuries that have healed without something more, which in pitchers the one obvious "more" can be a risk-inducing delivery, which Sale has. But even there, the risk of a new UCL tear is probably a few years away. The replacement ligaments tend to hold up pretty well for a while. If anything, the medical prognosis would be that 2023 is his clearest chance at a strong, healthy season, after which the odds start dropping again. Fingers crossed!Even though I kind of assume the bolded to be snark, I don't necessarily think he's going to break a bone. But based on his frame and violent delivery, questions have always been around him about how Sale would hold up over the long term. Once he had the major injury, I have not been surprised at him having difficulty getting and staying healthy once the injuries started.
More likely I think he re-injures something in his pitching arm while trying to over-compensate than breaking a bone, but I'm for one not betting on him being both healthy AND effective for either of the next two seasons. If he is, great, we'll have a #1 / #2 caliber starter and that will be awesome, and I'll admit I'm wrong. I have zero problems with that, I'm wrong a lot. But I also don't want to hear "oh, you can't blame that on Bloom" if Sale misses significant time, or just is no longer an effective pitcher due to age and the injuries that have already started mounting.
Anyway, we can respectfully agree to disagree rather than clog up the board, but I didn't feel right not addressing a specific question.
The stats above show that he's a markedly worse pitcher in September and October. Look at his WHIP and opponents' BA. They're incredibly higher than in any other month(s) of the season, in support of my original argument. And, no, a 1.259 WHIP and a .261 average against are not those of a "really good" starting pitcher.This is overstated, I think. Is he the same pitcher in September as he is in June? No. But over his career, his September numbers are still those of a really good starting pitcher in MLB. Basically, we're damning him for not clearing the elite bar he sets the rest of the season. Interestingly, his April numbers and his August numbers are remarkably similar.
Mar/April - 259.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, .217/.271/.354/.625, .275 BABIP
May - 277.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, .183/.248/.303/.551, .257 BABIP
June - 324 IP, 2.56 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, .208/.256/.312/.568, .290 BABIP
July - 258.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, .228/.284/.352/.636, .313 BABIP
August - 293 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, .219/.275/.368/.644, .302 BABIP
Sept/Oct - 265.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, .261/.318/.432/.750, .338 BABIP
Again, I didn't say he wasn't worse at the end of the year, but those September/October stats are still that of a very good MLB starter. It's not as though he becomes the worst pitcher in baseball or anything. And I'm not going to read anything into 34 innings worth of work spread out over three different seasons.The stats above show that he's a markedly worse pitcher in September and October. Look at his WHIP and opponents' BA. They're incredibly higher than in any other month(s) of the season, in support of my original argument. And, no, a 1.259 WHIP and a .261 average against are not those of a "really good" starting pitcher.
Further, look at his post-season stats. His WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 6.35! Those are AWFUL! The guy runs down at the end of the year.
A bit more than 1/3 of Sale’s postseason earned runs came against the 2017 Astros, FWIW.The stats above show that he's a markedly worse pitcher in September and October. Look at his WHIP and opponents' BA. They're incredibly higher than in any other month(s) of the season, in support of my original argument. And, no, a 1.259 WHIP and a .261 average against are not those of a "really good" starting pitcher.
Further, look at his post-season stats. His WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 6.35! Those are AWFUL! The guy runs down at the end of the year.
2020 we lost Erod for the full season to myocarditis brought on by covid, last year we brought in Wacha and Hill and they were exceptional and fine respectively, but a third of our season was started by AAA kids. Oh we also locked in Whitlock for a few years on a nice deal.So with Senga and Bassitt off the board, this is the 4th straight year we've done nothing of consequence to help the rotation for the "medium" term (I'm not even saying signings like deGrom but things like Stroman, Taillon or Bassitt) in free agency.
The past three seasons we've had: the second worst pitching staff in baseball in 2020 (yes, that year was a sham, but the off-season was complete before the pandemic hit, it would have just been 162 games of sucking instead of 60); 2021 we were exactly in the middle of the league; last season we were the 6th worst staff in all of baseball.
Yes, we can still make trades, but based on what we have now and what is left in the free agent market, there isn't a lot of reason to be optimistic about this staff being any better than average - and that is IF we happen to bring back our two best starters from last year (Eovaldi and Wacha), even with whom we were one of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the game.
I'm sure that we'll add some more pitchers, I doubt the ability (or availability) to add pitchers whom are good enough to make much difference.
I’d imagine that with a rotation of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello…we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don’t want starting, just like last year. Last years rotation was bad…but the top three SP’s from it are gone. Regardless, I imagine the success of the Sox pitching staff in ‘23, no matter what they do, is going to come down to Sale and the kids.2020 we lost Erod for the full season to myocarditis brought on by covid, last year we brought in Wacha and Hill and they were exceptional and fine respectively, but a third of our season was started by AAA kids.
What's your point exactly?
Last year's rotation was bad because those 3 pitchers all got hurt at once. It doesn't really make sense to compare the current rotation to the rotation they had to start last season unless you assume a similar amount of injury clustering.I’d imagine that with a rotation of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello…we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don’t want starting, just like last year. Last years rotation was bad…but the top three SP’s from it are gone. Regardless, I imagine the success of the Sox pitching staff in ‘23, no matter what they do, is going to come down to Sale and the kids.
Whether it's fair or not, players are judged on post-season performance. That's why Reggie was Mr. October and Winfield was Mr. May. You may also remember that Maddux was terrible in the offseason, as was Price (before 2018). Post season performance matters more, simply because more is at stake. Anything else is simply denial.Again, I didn't say he wasn't worse at the end of the year, but those September/October stats are still that of a very good MLB starter. It's not as though he becomes the worst pitcher in baseball or anything. And I'm not going to read anything into 34 innings worth of work spread out over three different seasons.
The thing is that if it truly is that he runs down at the end of the year and not other factors (his BABIP is notably higher in Sept/Oct along with everything else), steps can be taken to mitigate that. They can pace him better during the year, give him extra resetc.
I don't think that's worth much. He was horrible in 2017, 4th starter material in 2018, and horrible again in 2021. He gave up 9 ER in 9 2/3 innings in 2017, and 8 in 9 innings in 2021.A bit more than 1/3 of Sale’s postseason earned runs came against the 2017 Astros, FWIW.
@Petagine in a Bottle in many ways summarized a lot of the point I was trying to make. I think there is something to be said for having some consistency in a rotation rather than playing the “what is left game” year after year, but that is just anecdotal.2020 we lost Erod for the full season to myocarditis brought on by covid, last year we brought in Wacha and Hill and they were exceptional and fine respectively, but a third of our season was started by AAA kids. Oh we also locked in Whitlock for a few years on a nice deal.
What's your point exactly? Is there some additional value in signing an uninspiring guy like Taillon for a few years over making 1 the year deals that Bloom actually seems to decent at that I'm not seeing?
I'd take Eovaldi back on a 2-year deal at around Bassitt's AAV in a heart beat.Senga’s has been the only SP deal given out I would have wanted to beat.
But I think a bet on the young guys makes sense, given where we are on the success cycle.
I'm not so sure we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don't want starting. Mata, Walter, Seabold and Murphy are all on the 40 man roster. So that makes 9 starters who should be stretched out to start. I do agree it appears to be Sale and the kidsI’d imagine that with a rotation of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello…we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don’t want starting, just like last year. Last years rotation was bad…but the top three SP’s from it are gone. Regardless, I imagine the success of the Sox pitching staff in ‘23, no matter what they do, is going to come down to Sale and the kids.
I heard in a Mariners broadcast last season that Ohtani is looking to stay on the West Coast, so his fans in Japan will still be able to watch him play.I'd take Eovaldi back on a 2-year deal at around Bassitt's AAV in a heart beat.
I think the Rodon bidding will get much higher (both in dollars and years) than the Sox are comfortable with. But I do see some parallels to Zack Wheeler from a few years ago. Both were super highly regarded prospects that impressed early, then missed huge chunks of their pre-arb/arb years due to arm surgeries before bouncing back before free agency.
The next FA class for SP is pretty interesting: Aaron Nola, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Blake Snell, German Marquez. Possibly Yoshida's teammate Yamamoto.
Yes, I'm ignoring Ohtani.
All this makes sense, but I think the Sox are firmly out on Machado no matter what.It looks like the Dodgers are going to reset their tax level this year. If the best free agents are off the board then it also makes sense for us to reset our tax level this year. Even if we can't resign Devers, resetting the tax allows us to compete for him on the open market (and if we lose, at least get a good pick as compensation). It also allows us to compete for Machado - who's almost certain to opt out - and Ohtani. I mean, there's always next year. We shouldn't lock ourselves into a bad deal just because there aren't other options.
The teams that have spent the most this year (Yankees, Phillies, Padres) are all going to be way above the tax level come 2024, so maybe there's less competition for free agents next year.
I actually really liked the Jansen signing (and Yoshida, for the record). I really hoped that was signaling a change in approach from the past three off-seasons. Not that we'd go "top of the market prices" (which would have been Diaz and Judge, respectfully) but that we'd stop looking only in the bargain basement and start giving good contracts to good players (not elite contracts to elite players; not cheap contracts to questionable players). But that's just me, I suppose. I think middle relief pitchers, especially, tend to be so volatile year to year that you're better served paying for one closer and then filling in the rest with youth / absolute cheap, MLB minimum type pieces. On Martin, with a 3.84 career ERA (3.10 career FIP) I wouldn't be at all surprised if he had the 1.46ERA he did with the Dodgers or the 3.95ERA he had in 2021 with the Braves or 4.31ERA he had at the start of last season with the Cubs. I guess I just don't believe in paying $8m for that variance in a middle / set up relief pitcher.Interesting, I think most people around here have been generally happy with the bullpen signings so far? It was certainly an area they struggled with this year.
I mean, their starters were generally fine (when they weren't starting Seabold and Winckowski), but the bullpen and injuries really dug them into a hole. I do think your argument about bottom 1/4 pitching is kind of willfully ignoring context though.
I think this is right. I truly hope this is right. Which while I'd get why the FO won't say this publicly, it'd at least be better if we somehow knew this was what they were doing, and not that they think the approach we've taken to team building in the past four off seasons (yes, I'm basically writing the rest of this one off to be more of the same) will actually lead to a title contender on a consistent basis.I think 2023 will look much like (or worse) than 2022. Sadly, I think the plan was always to get rid of the remaining contracts that Bloom inherited and re-set the team with "his" players starting this coming year. Even signing Correa to a huge contract doesn't really shift the math much IMO for the coming year, and sets us up for a long and overpaid contract. We will again see a parade of "value-oriented" players and minor leaguers trying to make it work, and then next year we will see the plan come together (possibly). I don't support this plan, but its what I'm seeing IS the plan.
Friendly reminder that at the trade deadline the Sox were 2 games out of the wild card with about a 33% chance of making the playoffs (per fangraphs).Which, again brings me to the point that failing to move Eovaldi, Wacha, Martinez and Hill for literally whatever we could get AND re-setting the tax was an inexcusable failure.
FWIW, at the deadline, the Phillies were tied for the 3rd WC spot with a record about 2.5 games better than the Sox had at the time. Were they "in it" or not?Which, again brings me to the point that failing to move Eovaldi, Wacha, Martinez and Hill for literally whatever we could get AND re-setting the tax was an inexcusable failure. Sure, we were 2 games out of the last wild card (different sports, yes) but the Patriots are currently a "playoff team" as is - does anyone really think they're "in it" this year. I think that's exactly where the Red Sox were last season and the front office personnel are in the positions they're in and paid like they're paid to be able to project stuff like that - especially when you'd spent the entire season getting your teeth kicked in by the good teams in your own division.
There is a long history of borderline playoff times winning the World Series, much moreso than say, the Super Bowl and NBA Championship. A 33% crack at being in the playoffs is a very real chance, and even if you want to argue that they should have been 100% sellers (I would not have blamed them at the time if they went in that direction), going for it hardly represents an "inexcusable failure". The situation was 4th and 8 from the opponent's 42 yard line -- no obvious slam dunk decision, any path is reasonable.Yes, I know that. I mentioned it in my post. I don't think all "2 games out" are created equally.
I think holding on to those players on that team with a 67% chance of missing the playoffs per Fangraphs and having gone a combined 0-11-1 in series against the AL East opponents, having to jump those same teams AND having just gone 4-13 against the AL East teams in the month of July leading up to the deadline I'd expect more of the front office to look at that and say "Lets at MINIMUM get rid of guys we aren't going to extend a qualifying offer for." (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022-schedule-scores.shtml)