What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Alex Binelas first 44 AA games: .126/.233/.329; 11.9 BB%, 35.2 K%, .204 ISO, 53 wRC+
Alex Binelas last 11 AA games: .318/.340/.568; 4.2 BB%, 20.8 K%, .250 ISO, 140 wRC+
The jump from A+ to AA is enormous right now. Binelas looks like a guy who had been caught with too passive an approach, and was exploited in his first couple months of AA, getting behind in counts.
Eleven games are eleven games, but there’s enough evidence to support that he made an adjustment, and it worked for a little while. He had eight doubles in those last 11 games of the season, compared with only two in the first 44.
That’s still a craptastic walk rate.
Book not written on him yet…. Not even past the middle chapters yet. If he does great in AA this season then gets bumped up to AAA the last month and has a similar long down time with a burst…. It’ll be considered predictable for an eventual ML promotion
I hear you, but I don't think it's thaaaaaat unreasonable. The 11 games look like an outlier if you put them in only with the balance of the AA sample. If you put the whole 55 game stretch in context with his overall career, it looks like it might be a resumption after an adjustment period, of the kind of hitter he'd been in prior levels of pro ball.
2021: Rookie and A Ball, 36 games, .973 OPS.
2022: High A, 58 games, .851 OPS
AA, first 44 games, .563 OPS
AA, last 11 games, .835 OPS
We'll see, I guess. He'll turn 23 next May, and he's already in AA. He's not a great prospect, but he is a prospect.
- Sox Wins - 85
- Sale Innings - 125
- Paxton Starts - 15
- Bello Wins - 10
- Casas HR - 20
I'm not really into playing junior GM, so I'm not going to get into trades and signings and such. But I do have some ideas about roster construction and minor leaguers, so here's who from the current 40-man I'd carry out of ST, some guys I think we can do without, and some I wouldn't part with.
26-man
C - Wong (R) / McGuire (L)
1B - Casas (L)
2B - Story (R)
SS - (assume guy from outside the organization)
3B - Devers (L)
LF - Yoshida (L)
CF - Kiké (R)
RF - Verdugo (L) ^
DH - (assume rotation of regulars based on rest needed, match-ups, platoon advantage -- or guy from outside the organization)
UTI - Arroyo (R)
UTI - Bobby D (R) ^
UTO - Refsnyder (R)
That's 12 as listed, 13 if they bring in a DH-type. (Any DH-type they bring in should be a RHH who can at least play 1B and take Bobby D's spot on the roster.)
SP - Sale (L)
SP - Pivetta (R)
SP - Bello (R)
SP - Whitlock (R)
SP - Paxton (L)
RP - Jansen (R) - closer
RP - Barnes (R)
RP - Martin (R)
RP - Schreiber (R)
RP - Houck (R)
RP - Joely Rodriguez (L)
RP - Brasier (R) ^^
RP - Crawford (R) ^^
RP - Kelly (R) ^^
That's 14 pitchers. Need another lefty or two in the bullpen, bumping down from the Brasier/Crawford/Kelly group.
^ guys I would actively shop
^^ guys I wouldn't mind losing in a deal
more on these below
Actively shop from the 40-man:
* Verdugo -- only if they can find someone better to play RF in Fenway
* Bobby D -- doesn't seem to have the ability to make adjustments. What happened to what he learned from Schwarber?
* Hosmer -- redundant with Casas at 1B, not enough bat to DH
* Darwinzon -- maybe someone else can fix him; I don't think the Sox can
* Jarren Duran -- I have no hope for him to be able to play ML outfield or be a competent ML hitter or baserunner
* Jeter Downs -- looks like a lost cause
OK to make available from the 40-man:
* Brasier -- he's borderline for the list above because I sense doom whenever he enters a game, but some posters here have made compelling points on his behalf, so I guess I'm ok if he's still here -- for now, in low-leverage situations -- but also wouldn't shed a tear for him leaving
* Seabold / Crawford / Winckowski -- decent depth to keep around, but I'd be unfazed losing them in a decent trade. Of the three, I'd prefer to be able to keep Crawford.
* Ort / Kelly / German -- pretty much the same as the above, for relievers. Preference to keep Kelly.
* Valdez / Hamilton -- I don't know why they protected either of these guys over Thad Ward
* Hoy Park -- I guess they protected him over Thad Ward because he's Arroyo injury insurance. But they could probably find another guy like him if they needed to.
Don't trade from the 40-man (these names in reaction to suggestions here):
* Ceddanne Rafaela -- I think the comp to Mookie's trajectory is too similar to let him go. I know a lot of you guys say sell high -- I don't think he's peaked yet. And even if his plate discipline issues keep him from being a plus hitter, his defensive floor is elite. If they decide to go with a stop-gap plan at SS, I could see Rafaela holding down SS in 2024 for Mayer in 2025, when CR switches to CF.
* Tanner Houck -- he's already a useful pitcher and we need more of those, not fewer
* Nick Pivetta -- ditto
* Any of the other guys listed on the 26-man, unless they can be replaced by someone better
Ok to trade / don't trade from Sox Prospects Top 20 (Assuming average MLB trade. Anybody is fair game for an Ohtani deal if he's willing to take an extension as part of the deal, a circumstance so unlikely it shouldn't bear mentioning.)
1. Mayer - no trade
3. Bleis - no trade
4. Rafaela - no trade
5. Yorke - ok to trade
6. Mata - no trade
7. Romero - ok to trade
8. Walter - no trade
9. R Anthony - ok to trade
10. Perales - ok to trade
11. Paulino - ok to trade
12. W Gonzalez - no trade
13. C Murphy - ok to trade
14. M Lugo - no trade
15. Blaze Jordan - ok to trade
16. Bonaci - ok to trade (link to Paulino -- ok to trade either, but not both)
17. Valdez - ok to trade
18. Hickey - no trade
19. Rodriguez-Cruz - ok to trade (link to Perales -- ok to trade either, but not both)
20. Kavadas - ok to trade
- Sale Innings - 125
- Paxton Starts - 15
- Bello Wins - 10
- Casas HR - 20
I'm not really into playing junior GM, so I'm not going to get into trades and signings and such. But I do have some ideas about roster construction and minor leaguers, so here's who from the current 40-man I'd carry out of ST, some guys I think we can do without, and some I wouldn't part with.
26-man
C - Wong (R) / McGuire (L)
1B - Casas (L)
2B - Story (R)
SS - (assume guy from outside the organization)
3B - Devers (L)
LF - Yoshida (L)
CF - Kiké (R)
RF - Verdugo (L) ^
DH - (assume rotation of regulars based on rest needed, match-ups, platoon advantage -- or guy from outside the organization)
UTI - Arroyo (R)
UTI - Bobby D (R) ^
UTO - Refsnyder (R)
That's 12 as listed, 13 if they bring in a DH-type. (Any DH-type they bring in should be a RHH who can at least play 1B and take Bobby D's spot on the roster.)
SP - Sale (L)
SP - Pivetta (R)
SP - Bello (R)
SP - Whitlock (R)
SP - Paxton (L)
RP - Jansen (R) - closer
RP - Barnes (R)
RP - Martin (R)
RP - Schreiber (R)
RP - Houck (R)
RP - Joely Rodriguez (L)
RP - Brasier (R) ^^
RP - Crawford (R) ^^
RP - Kelly (R) ^^
That's 14 pitchers. Need another lefty or two in the bullpen, bumping down from the Brasier/Crawford/Kelly group.
^ guys I would actively shop
^^ guys I wouldn't mind losing in a deal
more on these below
Actively shop from the 40-man:
* Verdugo -- only if they can find someone better to play RF in Fenway
* Bobby D -- doesn't seem to have the ability to make adjustments. What happened to what he learned from Schwarber?
* Hosmer -- redundant with Casas at 1B, not enough bat to DH
* Darwinzon -- maybe someone else can fix him; I don't think the Sox can
* Jarren Duran -- I have no hope for him to be able to play ML outfield or be a competent ML hitter or baserunner
* Jeter Downs -- looks like a lost cause
OK to make available from the 40-man:
* Brasier -- he's borderline for the list above because I sense doom whenever he enters a game, but some posters here have made compelling points on his behalf, so I guess I'm ok if he's still here -- for now, in low-leverage situations -- but also wouldn't shed a tear for him leaving
* Seabold / Crawford / Winckowski -- decent depth to keep around, but I'd be unfazed losing them in a decent trade. Of the three, I'd prefer to be able to keep Crawford.
* Ort / Kelly / German -- pretty much the same as the above, for relievers. Preference to keep Kelly.
* Valdez / Hamilton -- I don't know why they protected either of these guys over Thad Ward
* Hoy Park -- I guess they protected him over Thad Ward because he's Arroyo injury insurance. But they could probably find another guy like him if they needed to.
Don't trade from the 40-man (these names in reaction to suggestions here):
* Ceddanne Rafaela -- I think the comp to Mookie's trajectory is too similar to let him go. I know a lot of you guys say sell high -- I don't think he's peaked yet. And even if his plate discipline issues keep him from being a plus hitter, his defensive floor is elite. If they decide to go with a stop-gap plan at SS, I could see Rafaela holding down SS in 2024 for Mayer in 2025, when CR switches to CF.
* Tanner Houck -- he's already a useful pitcher and we need more of those, not fewer
* Nick Pivetta -- ditto
* Any of the other guys listed on the 26-man, unless they can be replaced by someone better
Ok to trade / don't trade from Sox Prospects Top 20 (Assuming average MLB trade. Anybody is fair game for an Ohtani deal if he's willing to take an extension as part of the deal, a circumstance so unlikely it shouldn't bear mentioning.)
1. Mayer - no trade
3. Bleis - no trade
4. Rafaela - no trade
5. Yorke - ok to trade
6. Mata - no trade
7. Romero - ok to trade
8. Walter - no trade
9. R Anthony - ok to trade
10. Perales - ok to trade
11. Paulino - ok to trade
12. W Gonzalez - no trade
13. C Murphy - ok to trade
14. M Lugo - no trade
15. Blaze Jordan - ok to trade
16. Bonaci - ok to trade (link to Paulino -- ok to trade either, but not both)
17. Valdez - ok to trade
18. Hickey - no trade
19. Rodriguez-Cruz - ok to trade (link to Perales -- ok to trade either, but not both)
20. Kavadas - ok to trade
Sox wins: 75
Sale Innings: 120
Paxton starts: 7.5
Bello Wins: 10 (he has a good year, but wins are team dependent)
Casas HR: 24
Sale Innings: 120
Paxton starts: 7.5
Bello Wins: 10 (he has a good year, but wins are team dependent)
Casas HR: 24
Even though I kind of assume the bolded to be snark, I don't necessarily think he's going to break a bone. But based on his frame and violent delivery, questions have always been around him about how Sale would hold up over the long term. Once he had the major injury, I have not been surprised at him having difficulty getting and staying healthy once the injuries started.
More likely I think he re-injures something in his pitching arm while trying to over-compensate than breaking a bone, but I'm for one not betting on him being both healthy AND effective for either of the next two seasons. If he is, great, we'll have a #1 / #2 caliber starter and that will be awesome, and I'll admit I'm wrong. I have zero problems with that, I'm wrong a lot. But I also don't want to hear "oh, you can't blame that on Bloom" if Sale misses significant time, or just is no longer an effective pitcher due to age and the injuries that have already started mounting.
Anyway, we can respectfully agree to disagree rather than clog up the board, but I didn't feel right not addressing a specific question.
Even without injury concerns, Sale has (almost) always hit the "E" mark on the tank sometime in August or September, going back to his White Sox days. So, even if he does manage to make it a year without being injured (unlikely), one cannot count on him to produce come crunch time.
Circling back around to this, @teddywingman is off the hook and will not have to root for Judge in the future. I have made my payment to the Jimmy Fund.
This is overstated, I think. Is he the same pitcher in September as he is in June? No. But over his career, his September numbers are still those of a really good starting pitcher in MLB. Basically, we're damning him for not clearing the elite bar he sets the rest of the season. Interestingly, his April numbers and his August numbers are remarkably similar.
Mar/April - 259.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, .217/.271/.354/.625, .275 BABIP
May - 277.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, .183/.248/.303/.551, .257 BABIP
June - 324 IP, 2.56 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, .208/.256/.312/.568, .290 BABIP
July - 258.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, .228/.284/.352/.636, .313 BABIP
August - 293 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, .219/.275/.368/.644, .302 BABIP
Sept/Oct - 265.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, .261/.318/.432/.750, .338 BABIP
I'm honestly asking - have there been any reports on Sale since the season ended? He was pretty good in 2021 after he returned from TJ surgery, but his injuries in 2022 were pretty abnormal. Is there a reason he isn't expected to pitch a normal workload in 2023?
Only irrational fears that he's "made of glass."
Though I guess what a normal workload would be is open to interpretation. I don't expect him to throw 180+ innings in 2023 even if he is 100% healthy and makes every scheduled start. But that's not because I think him incapable so much as everyone is far more protective of pitchers these days, and he has probably collectively thrown about 75-80 innings in total (including rehab starts) in the last couple years. The team may not want to push him much past 120-130 innings even if he is entirely healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if they skip a start here and there or give him a "shoulder fatigue/dead arm" type IL vacation mid-season just to pace him a bit.
As to your first question, it's been totally quiet on the Sale front since he broke his wrist. To me, no news is probably good news.
Sounds good. I generally don't like being pessimistic about injuries that have healed without something more, which in pitchers the one obvious "more" can be a risk-inducing delivery, which Sale has. But even there, the risk of a new UCL tear is probably a few years away. The replacement ligaments tend to hold up pretty well for a while. If anything, the medical prognosis would be that 2023 is his clearest chance at a strong, healthy season, after which the odds start dropping again. Fingers crossed!
The stats above show that he's a markedly worse pitcher in September and October. Look at his WHIP and opponents' BA. They're incredibly higher than in any other month(s) of the season, in support of my original argument. And, no, a 1.259 WHIP and a .261 average against are not those of a "really good" starting pitcher.
Further, look at his post-season stats. His WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 6.35! Those are AWFUL! The guy runs down at the end of the year.
So with Senga and Bassitt off the board, this is the 4th straight year we've done nothing of consequence to help the rotation for the "medium" term (I'm not even saying signings like deGrom but things like Stroman, Taillon or Bassitt) in free agency.
The past three seasons we've had: the second worst pitching staff in baseball in 2020 (yes, that year was a sham, but the off-season was complete before the pandemic hit, it would have just been 162 games of sucking instead of 60); 2021 we were exactly in the middle of the league; last season we were the 6th worst staff in all of baseball.
Yes, we can still make trades, but based on what we have now and what is left in the free agent market, there isn't a lot of reason to be optimistic about this staff being any better than average - and that is IF we happen to bring back our two best starters from last year (Eovaldi and Wacha), even with whom we were one of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the game.
I'm sure that we'll add some more pitchers, I doubt the ability (or availability) to add pitchers whom are good enough to make much difference.
The past three seasons we've had: the second worst pitching staff in baseball in 2020 (yes, that year was a sham, but the off-season was complete before the pandemic hit, it would have just been 162 games of sucking instead of 60); 2021 we were exactly in the middle of the league; last season we were the 6th worst staff in all of baseball.
Yes, we can still make trades, but based on what we have now and what is left in the free agent market, there isn't a lot of reason to be optimistic about this staff being any better than average - and that is IF we happen to bring back our two best starters from last year (Eovaldi and Wacha), even with whom we were one of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the game.
I'm sure that we'll add some more pitchers, I doubt the ability (or availability) to add pitchers whom are good enough to make much difference.
Don't really want to put this in either the Martin or Yoshida threads...but those signings seem awfully related to me.
Yoshida had the 2nd best walk rate & the 2nd best strikeout rate in NPB last year. Martin had an absolutely ridiculous 14.8/1 Strikeout/walk rate (for reference purposes, Aaron Nola led the league among qualifying pitchers at 8.1/1.
Wonder if they're seeing more value than other teams in tilting the equation on those 2 of the 3 true outcomes.
Yoshida had the 2nd best walk rate & the 2nd best strikeout rate in NPB last year. Martin had an absolutely ridiculous 14.8/1 Strikeout/walk rate (for reference purposes, Aaron Nola led the league among qualifying pitchers at 8.1/1.
Wonder if they're seeing more value than other teams in tilting the equation on those 2 of the 3 true outcomes.
Again, I didn't say he wasn't worse at the end of the year, but those September/October stats are still that of a very good MLB starter. It's not as though he becomes the worst pitcher in baseball or anything. And I'm not going to read anything into 34 innings worth of work spread out over three different seasons.
The thing is that if it truly is that he runs down at the end of the year and not other factors (his BABIP is notably higher in Sept/Oct along with everything else), steps can be taken to mitigate that. They can pace him better during the year, give him extra rest, etc.
A bit more than 1/3 of Sale’s postseason earned runs came against the 2017 Astros, FWIW.
2020 we lost Erod for the full season to myocarditis brought on by covid, last year we brought in Wacha and Hill and they were exceptional and fine respectively, but a third of our season was started by AAA kids. Oh we also locked in Whitlock for a few years on a nice deal.
What's your point exactly? Is there some additional value in signing an uninspiring guy like Taillon for a few years over making 1 the year deals that Bloom actually seems to decent at that I'm not seeing?
Last edited:
I’d imagine that with a rotation of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello…we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don’t want starting, just like last year. Last years rotation was bad…but the top three SP’s from it are gone. Regardless, I imagine the success of the Sox pitching staff in ‘23, no matter what they do, is going to come down to Sale and the kids.
Last year's rotation was bad because those 3 pitchers all got hurt at once. It doesn't really make sense to compare the current rotation to the rotation they had to start last season unless you assume a similar amount of injury clustering.
Whether it's fair or not, players are judged on post-season performance. That's why Reggie was Mr. October and Winfield was Mr. May. You may also remember that Maddux was terrible in the offseason, as was Price (before 2018). Post season performance matters more, simply because more is at stake. Anything else is simply denial.
And, no I do not agree that Sale was a very good starter in September. More importantly, though, your statistics confirm my original point that Sale was significantly worse (i.e., "broke down") at the end of the year. The disadvantage he has going forward is that he's older now, so he's even more likely to break down if he pitches a significant number of innings...and if he doesn't pitch as many innings, then he's simply not as valuable. In any event, he won't be worth nearly $30M/Y, and he's not someone that anyone should count on to be a productive starter this year.
I don't think that's worth much. He was horrible in 2017, 4th starter material in 2018, and horrible again in 2021. He gave up 9 ER in 9 2/3 innings in 2017, and 8 in 9 innings in 2021.
@Petagine in a Bottle in many ways summarized a lot of the point I was trying to make. I think there is something to be said for having some consistency in a rotation rather than playing the “what is left game” year after year, but that is just anecdotal.
It also seems amazing to me that at present we have a $192M payroll and one “consistent” starter in a guy with a career 4.49FIP and an 87 career ERA+. I realize that Sale has been Dombrowski’s albatross contract that Bloom has had to deal with - but I believe he is literally the only player on the roster with a notable salary tied to him that wasn’t Bloom’s call.
In 2 of 3 years the staff Bloom has put together has been the 29th, 15th and 24th (out of 30) staffs in the big leagues. We have lost our two best starters from one of the worst pitching staff’s in baseball. At best (left in free agency) we could reasonably replace them.
Beyond that we have two guys whom have combined to pitch 70 innings over the past 3 seasons, both of whom will be 34 next year. While we all like the upside of Bello and Whitlock, they’ve combined for 20 MLB starts. Even if we add Wacha and Eovaldi back, you’re looking at a ton of question marks.
Sure, it could work. But it has failed miserably in 2 of 3 seasons and was average the “good” year - and the offense carried the 2021 team. When your rotation is dependent on guys with a history of getting hurt (Eovaldi and Wacha), old pitchers whom (as starters) also miss significant time (Hill) and guys with below average career track records (Pivetta) it shouldn’t be a surprise when those pitchers get hurt (again) or pitch poorly.
We‘ve missed out on all the top free agent SPs this year, and if we’re not trading high value prospects, we shouldn’t plan to land much in a trade. I hope to be wrong, but I admit to not being enthusiastic to follow the same path this year that has resulted (on average) in being one of the bottom 1/4 of pitching staffs in baseball over the past 3 seasons.
Last edited:
On the one hand, yes, nobody's looking at our current prospective rotation and pumping their fist. But on the other, did you actually want Taillon or whomever? Are you envious of the deals DeGrom/Verlander got? You seem concerned about the durability of starters generally speaking, did you want to fight the MFY for 6 years of Rodon?
I don't feel like there's anyone on the market this year that's made a ton of sense for the Sox. Maybe Senga was that piece, we'll see how he looks in MLB. But I do feel like Bloom has earned some trust in the 1 year deals he's been swinging, so I'm not really bothered that we haven't locked anyone in to a longer contract so far.
I don't feel like there's anyone on the market this year that's made a ton of sense for the Sox. Maybe Senga was that piece, we'll see how he looks in MLB. But I do feel like Bloom has earned some trust in the 1 year deals he's been swinging, so I'm not really bothered that we haven't locked anyone in to a longer contract so far.
Tallion (this year), Stromam (last year), Bassitt and Senga, off the top of my head. Yes, I would have happily paid what they got or a bit more. I think they’d all be more valuable to the Red Sox than the 2nd round pick we’d lose for signing some.
I understand that we weren’t getting Verlander because we aren‘t seen as a contender, and I get we‘re no longer playing at the top of the FA market and have come to accept that (ie Scherzer, Gausman or Ray last year, deGrom, Rodon, Verlander this year - and I agree @simplicio there is no chance I’d want / expect to match the deGrom or likely Rodon deals).
But I’d be ok with actually signing good (not great) pitchers at reasonable contracts. Or, put another way, I’d rather have spent $18m on Tallion, $16m on Senga or $22m on Bassitt (went $1m more AAV than they got, but my point is I would have gone higher) than $8m on Martin, $2m on Rodriguez and $7m on whatever version of Wacha / Hill v2023 we end up signing. And for me, it really isn’t close - but I’m really just tired of watching 3 years of (on average) bottom 1/4 of the entire league pitching - and there isn’t a ton of reason to expect more than that this season.
*Now go out, trade for Alcantara and Woodruff and make me look like the moron I am, Chaim. Please…
I understand that we weren’t getting Verlander because we aren‘t seen as a contender, and I get we‘re no longer playing at the top of the FA market and have come to accept that (ie Scherzer, Gausman or Ray last year, deGrom, Rodon, Verlander this year - and I agree @simplicio there is no chance I’d want / expect to match the deGrom or likely Rodon deals).
But I’d be ok with actually signing good (not great) pitchers at reasonable contracts. Or, put another way, I’d rather have spent $18m on Tallion, $16m on Senga or $22m on Bassitt (went $1m more AAV than they got, but my point is I would have gone higher) than $8m on Martin, $2m on Rodriguez and $7m on whatever version of Wacha / Hill v2023 we end up signing. And for me, it really isn’t close - but I’m really just tired of watching 3 years of (on average) bottom 1/4 of the entire league pitching - and there isn’t a ton of reason to expect more than that this season.
*Now go out, trade for Alcantara and Woodruff and make me look like the moron I am, Chaim. Please…
Last edited:
Interesting, I think most people around here have been generally happy with the bullpen signings so far? It was certainly an area they struggled with this year.
I mean, their starters were generally fine (when they weren't starting Seabold and Winckowski), but the bullpen and injuries really dug them into a hole. I do think your argument about bottom 1/4 pitching is kind of willfully ignoring context though.
I mean, their starters were generally fine (when they weren't starting Seabold and Winckowski), but the bullpen and injuries really dug them into a hole. I do think your argument about bottom 1/4 pitching is kind of willfully ignoring context though.
Last edited:
Senga’s has been the only SP deal given out I would have wanted to beat.
But I think a bet on the young guys makes sense, given where we are on the success cycle.
But I think a bet on the young guys makes sense, given where we are on the success cycle.
I'd take Eovaldi back on a 2-year deal at around Bassitt's AAV in a heart beat.
I think the Rodon bidding will get much higher (both in dollars and years) than the Sox are comfortable with. But I do see some parallels to Zack Wheeler from a few years ago. Both were super highly regarded prospects that impressed early, then missed huge chunks of their pre-arb/arb years due to arm surgeries before bouncing back before free agency.
The next FA class for SP is pretty interesting: Aaron Nola, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Blake Snell, German Marquez. Possibly Yoshida's teammate Yamamoto.
Yes, I'm ignoring Ohtani.
It looks like the Dodgers are going to reset their tax level this year. If the best free agents are off the board then it also makes sense for us to reset our tax level this year. Even if we can't resign Devers, resetting the tax allows us to compete for him on the open market (and if we lose, at least get a good pick as compensation). It also allows us to compete for Machado - who's almost certain to opt out - and Ohtani. I mean, there's always next year. We shouldn't lock ourselves into a bad deal just because there aren't other options.
The teams that have spent the most this year (Yankees, Phillies, Padres) are all going to be way above the tax level come 2024, so maybe there's less competition for free agents next year.
The teams that have spent the most this year (Yankees, Phillies, Padres) are all going to be way above the tax level come 2024, so maybe there's less competition for free agents next year.
I'm not so sure we are likely to see a lot of starts from guys we probably don't want starting. Mata, Walter, Seabold and Murphy are all on the 40 man roster. So that makes 9 starters who should be stretched out to start. I do agree it appears to be Sale and the kids
Looks like any signings will be ones we can move on again at the deadline for more assets. We are not in competitive mode. Martin and Jansen if they pitch well might being back a haul from a desparate team. I hope this year we go full in on a rebuild
Not much news about Wacha. I wonder if the Sox are monitoring his market and may try to bring him back if no one else overspends on him.
I really hope we don't enter this season with an extension-less Devers. With some of the crazy money being thrown around, I'm very reluctant to sign him long-term for what he's going to want. I worry he won't age well and he's not exactly the next Brooks Robinson at 3B. We'd be paying for a guy who could likely be a DH in a few years. Do we want to pay premium 3B money for a DH for several years? I honestly don't know. I'd pay Papi whatever he wanted, but will Devers match his production? Possibly, but that's a pretty big gamble. I'd much prefer another team be on the hook for some generational wealth in this case. In a perfect world, we would've locked both he and Xander down before 2022 at deals we'd now be looking at as very reasonable. We don't live in a perfect world.
If Bloom goes out and adds Correa and Rodon and ownership says to pay Devers what he wants, do big additions like those make him more likely to sign an extension? Do we want them to sign those two in an effort to show Rafael we're committed to winning?
Offering him 10/350 makes me very nervous and there's no indication I've seen that says ownership wants to sign anyone to 10 year deals, regardless of the new normal (if that's what we're now seeing). 5 years from now, $35M AAV will likely look reasonable if he doesn't regress. Further out, even more so. I'm just concerned it's going to cost more and I'm worried that he holds up long-term. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong as I really like this kid.
I'm hoping the lack of leaks don't mean we're sitting on our hands and, instead, we're already pursuing trade scenarios that improve us over the long haul if an extension can't be signed before Spring Training. I also hope the front office sees what the Braves are doing and make an effort to extend our youngsters to similar deals rather than going through another Xander/Mookie/etc scenario in a few years.
If Bloom goes out and adds Correa and Rodon and ownership says to pay Devers what he wants, do big additions like those make him more likely to sign an extension? Do we want them to sign those two in an effort to show Rafael we're committed to winning?
Offering him 10/350 makes me very nervous and there's no indication I've seen that says ownership wants to sign anyone to 10 year deals, regardless of the new normal (if that's what we're now seeing). 5 years from now, $35M AAV will likely look reasonable if he doesn't regress. Further out, even more so. I'm just concerned it's going to cost more and I'm worried that he holds up long-term. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong as I really like this kid.
I'm hoping the lack of leaks don't mean we're sitting on our hands and, instead, we're already pursuing trade scenarios that improve us over the long haul if an extension can't be signed before Spring Training. I also hope the front office sees what the Braves are doing and make an effort to extend our youngsters to similar deals rather than going through another Xander/Mookie/etc scenario in a few years.
I think 2023 will look much like (or worse) than 2022. Sadly, I think the plan was always to get rid of the remaining contracts that Bloom inherited and re-set the team with "his" players starting this coming year. Even signing Correa to a huge contract doesn't really shift the math much IMO for the coming year, and sets us up for a long and overpaid contract. We will again see a parade of "value-oriented" players and minor leaguers trying to make it work, and then next year we will see the plan come together (possibly). I don't support this plan, but its what I'm seeing IS the plan.
I heard in a Mariners broadcast last season that Ohtani is looking to stay on the West Coast, so his fans in Japan will still be able to watch him play.
All this makes sense, but I think the Sox are firmly out on Machado no matter what.
I actually really liked the Jansen signing (and Yoshida, for the record). I really hoped that was signaling a change in approach from the past three off-seasons. Not that we'd go "top of the market prices" (which would have been Diaz and Judge, respectfully) but that we'd stop looking only in the bargain basement and start giving good contracts to good players (not elite contracts to elite players; not cheap contracts to questionable players). But that's just me, I suppose. I think middle relief pitchers, especially, tend to be so volatile year to year that you're better served paying for one closer and then filling in the rest with youth / absolute cheap, MLB minimum type pieces. On Martin, with a 3.84 career ERA (3.10 career FIP) I wouldn't be at all surprised if he had the 1.46ERA he did with the Dodgers or the 3.95ERA he had in 2021 with the Braves or 4.31ERA he had at the start of last season with the Cubs. I guess I just don't believe in paying $8m for that variance in a middle / set up relief pitcher.
On the "context" part, I'd agree if it were just one season, that's why I used all three seasons and took the average. We've now seen four off seasons with the same approach to building a pitching staff and in the "best" season that gave us an exactly average staff and in the other two it was atrocious. I was hoping we'd try something different this time around, and we haven't. I guess I just don't think it's likely that the approach that has led to being really bad (on average) in the past 3 seasons is going to lead to a break through and top 1/3 pitching staff this time around.
To be clear, I WANT to be wrong and for Bloom to be a bargain shopping genius that leads us to a World Series title, but I don't think the approach will.
I think this is right. I truly hope this is right. Which while I'd get why the FO won't say this publicly, it'd at least be better if we somehow knew this was what they were doing, and not that they think the approach we've taken to team building in the past four off seasons (yes, I'm basically writing the rest of this one off to be more of the same) will actually lead to a title contender on a consistent basis.
Which, again brings me to the point that failing to move Eovaldi, Wacha, Martinez and Hill for literally whatever we could get AND re-setting the tax was an inexcusable failure. Sure, we were 2 games out of the last wild card (different sports, yes) but the Patriots are currently a "playoff team" as is - does anyone really think they're "in it" this year. I think that's exactly where the Red Sox were last season and the front office personnel are in the positions they're in and paid like they're paid to be able to project stuff like that - especially when you'd spent the entire season getting your teeth kicked in by the good teams in your own division.
Friendly reminder that at the trade deadline the Sox were 2 games out of the wild card with about a 33% chance of making the playoffs (per fangraphs).
Yes, I know that. I mentioned it in my post. I don't think all "2 games out" are created equally.
I think holding on to those players on that team with a 67% chance of missing the playoffs per Fangraphs and having gone a combined 0-11-1 in series against the AL East opponents, having to jump those same teams AND having just gone 4-13 against the AL East teams in the month of July leading up to the deadline I'd expect more of the front office to look at that and say "Lets at MINIMUM get rid of guys we aren't going to extend a qualifying offer for." (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022-schedule-scores.shtml)
I think holding on to those players on that team with a 67% chance of missing the playoffs per Fangraphs and having gone a combined 0-11-1 in series against the AL East opponents, having to jump those same teams AND having just gone 4-13 against the AL East teams in the month of July leading up to the deadline I'd expect more of the front office to look at that and say "Lets at MINIMUM get rid of guys we aren't going to extend a qualifying offer for." (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022-schedule-scores.shtml)
FWIW, at the deadline, the Phillies were tied for the 3rd WC spot with a record about 2.5 games better than the Sox had at the time. Were they "in it" or not?
If you don't see it coming... Machado opts out (assuming has good year) - that leaves third open in SD... who's a free agent and will be looking for similar $? Hate to say it but easy to slide Devers to SD and join the cool kids out west.
If we had two borderline aces in Nola and Wheeler at the top of our rotation at the top of our rotation and healthy along with four players in our line up with OPS+ above 120 (Realmuto, Harper, Hoskins and Schwarber) I'd have agreed with you. We had two regulars with OPS+ above 120 (Devers and Bogaerts).
On the pitching side, if someone wants to equate Michael Wacha to Aaron Nola I suppose that's their choice - but I do not find them similar regardless of their stats last season - and we certainly didn't have a Zach Wheeler.
The Phillies had also gone 5-6-1 in their division and had gone 7-2 against their division in the month leading up to the trade deadline. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2022-schedule-scores.shtml)
Sure, the "number out" is similar, but the way they got there, how they looked the month prior and the players at the top of their roster gave far more reason to be bullish on the Phillies than on the Rex Sox. And, to be clear, if we had a core of anything in the same realm as Nola, Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins and Realmuto under contract for this coming year and beyond I'd not be making the same argument to have sold off last season.
*Sorry, I don't know how to edit in to quote and respond.
On the pitching side, if someone wants to equate Michael Wacha to Aaron Nola I suppose that's their choice - but I do not find them similar regardless of their stats last season - and we certainly didn't have a Zach Wheeler.
The Phillies had also gone 5-6-1 in their division and had gone 7-2 against their division in the month leading up to the trade deadline. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2022-schedule-scores.shtml)
Sure, the "number out" is similar, but the way they got there, how they looked the month prior and the players at the top of their roster gave far more reason to be bullish on the Phillies than on the Rex Sox. And, to be clear, if we had a core of anything in the same realm as Nola, Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins and Realmuto under contract for this coming year and beyond I'd not be making the same argument to have sold off last season.
*Sorry, I don't know how to edit in to quote and respond.
Last edited:
There is a long history of borderline playoff times winning the World Series, much moreso than say, the Super Bowl and NBA Championship. A 33% crack at being in the playoffs is a very real chance, and even if you want to argue that they should have been 100% sellers (I would not have blamed them at the time if they went in that direction), going for it hardly represents an "inexcusable failure". The situation was 4th and 8 from the opponent's 42 yard line -- no obvious slam dunk decision, any path is reasonable.
Sorry I can't find the exact quote, but in a recent Athletic article, Bloom reiterated that he does not want to move Kike from CF to SS, and the best in-house option for 2B next year is Story.
I'm not here to hate on Story, but everything I've read is that he doesn't have the arm for SS anymore. I really hope he stays put at 2B, where he looked excellent last year. I like Kike at SS a lot more than Arroyo, but sadly I'm not the Red Sox GM.
I'm not here to hate on Story, but everything I've read is that he doesn't have the arm for SS anymore. I really hope he stays put at 2B, where he looked excellent last year. I like Kike at SS a lot more than Arroyo, but sadly I'm not the Red Sox GM.