What does 2023 look like?

Manramsclan

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Jul 14, 2005
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Groundhog day in here.
No one cares about Henry's money. What I do care about is spending $300 million on an aging pitcher for two good seasons, and then spending the next 6 seasons paying that pitcher to barely play somewhere else with our once in a lifetime superstar talent that we had to trade because of it.

Also, I would love for the Red Sox to be at the level of the Dodgers/Braves/Astros etc. where it would be worth it to be profligate spenders for Scherzer, Verlander, because it might put us over the top. The Sox are not there. The best they can do is hope sign their own talent first, and trust their own evaluations on the talent in the minors enough to come through.

Would I like to see them sign Correa for $300 Million? Yes I would. But better to sign X first for $100M less and have some organizational continuity and some surety about performance in the market and sign Devers to that $300M or so deal.

The problem with this team and organization has not been NOT spending. It's been spending on the wrong damn things.
 

mikcou

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Bogaerts just opted out of a contract he signed before he reached free agency. There were plenty of rumors of the Red Sox offering Betts long term deals, including the reported 10/300M offer he rejected prior to the 2019 season. There have also been stories about Devers being given extension offers as well. If that they were rejected is entirely on the team rather than the players, then let's stop using the Braves example as aspirational because they lucked into players willing to leave money on the table.

And again, as far as the one or two years into their career thing, there is context we're ignoring. The Braves didn't have a huge payroll when they signed Acuna and Albies and Riley. The Sox payroll was, as usual, top 5 (#1 in Devers' case) in the league when these guys were at that stage. Whether we liked it or not, they were paying Sandoval and Ramirez and Price and Sale and Kimbrel the money that should/could have been offered to Bogaerts and Betts in their first couple seasons. If they didn't offer those guys early extensions, it was because they needed to balance the big contracts. If they signed them to extensions early, maybe we don't get 2018. Choices were made. That doesn't mean it's an all encompassing organizational philosophy. After all, Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz all signed extensions early in their careers. They just inked Whitlock to a similar deal one year into his career. But by all means, it has to be that the Sox brass are idiots who couldn't be bothered with extending their young players.
The post your replied to specifically mentioned making offers to players in their first two years or so. Xander signed at the beginning of his last year of arb. The offer to Betts was right before he was traded. Devers' offer was after four years of service time. I agree that there is some context historically, but that isnt there at this point. They can decide to spend on Xander or Devers or not. They have almost nothing committed right now past 2024 (and minimal amounts for 2024); they can effectively do whatever they want.

There are two general strategies - use early years to negotiate long term deals at favorable rates or use early years to spend on other players. They have for the last 10 years have followed the latter strategy and not signed their stars young (as compared to Pedroia and Lester), but rather waited and taken the low salaries early in the player's career rather than spreading.

Again this was all in the context of discussing the Astros, Dodgers, etc. and how they have others coming up. That is true, but allowing all your stars to walk is not how those teams have approached their star talent. I'd love if they signed Devers this offseason, but if he leaves after Xander leaves, they need to seriously look internally as to what is happening as they will have no one to blame but themselves.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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It feels like some of the nuances around this topic of signing young stars long term aren’t being fully vetted. The Henry Sox have spent big money almost every year, often times trying to keep pace with or just ahead of NY, which spends both bigly and wisely (unfortunately). That’s made it difficult to hit reset like the Astros did. It leaves less flexibility under the LT than a team like Atlanta has. It’s also contributed to the team’s practice of taking advantage of the first few cheap years of production from their young stars as an offset to the huge contracts they give out to FAs like Price. And because they can and do spend near or above $200M every year (top 6 each year over the past decade+, except ‘20), it seems like they’re willing to end up paying more (X’s 6/$120) later, when they have a better feel for how good the player is, than take the risk that the guy they think is going to be a star turns into Cody Bellinger instead.

For present purposes, much of the conversation in this thread seems to be more applicable to the question of whether the Sox should be offering 7-8 deals right now to Casas and Bello rather than a full market deal to Devers.
 

chrisfont9

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It feels like some of the nuances around this topic of signing young stars long term aren’t being fully vetted. The Henry Sox have spent big money almost every year, often times trying to keep pace with or just ahead of NY, which spends both bigly and wisely (unfortunately). That’s made it difficult to hit reset like the Astros did. It leaves less flexibility under the LT than a team like Atlanta has. It’s also contributed to the team’s practice of taking advantage of the first few cheap years of production from their young stars as an offset to the huge contracts they give out to FAs like Price. And because they can and do spend near or above $200M every year (top 6 each year over the past decade+, except ‘20), it seems like they’re willing to end up paying more (X’s 6/$120) later, when they have a better feel for how good the player is, than take the risk that the guy they think is going to be a star turns into Cody Bellinger instead.

For present purposes, much of the conversation in this thread seems to be more applicable to the question of whether the Sox should be offering 7-8 deals right now to Casas and Bello rather than a full market deal to Devers.
That's a good question. I am a no there. They can get deals done after another year or two when there is more certainty about their future. Both seem like good bets but not exactly Julio Rodriguez bets.
 

sean1562

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The Red Sox have not had a 1B with an OPS over 120 since Hanley Ramirez in 2016. Devers seems like he wants to test the FA market. If Casas has a good season at 1B, maybe the thinking is his bat will replace Devers and they can sign a 3B that is a plus defensively with a bat that hovers in the 80-100 OPS+ range. A lot depends on what they think of Mayer and Rafaela and how quickly they will reach the majors. If they sign Xander they could slide him over to 3B after next season but obviously there is no guarantee he will be a good defensive 3B.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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My thought is similar... sign a guy we can platoon somewhere and hit DH. If we are looking for someone to get some work at 1b then Josh Bell might be a good fit. If we need some outfielder depth as well as DH then Haniger might be a good fit there as well as a few other names. Paying Abreu crazy money to just DH is just that ... crazy. Really nothing gets solved until Xander decides.
(crossposting from offseason moves thread)

I like Bell quite a bit but have to think someone will give him more money to be a first baseman than we would to mostly DH. As for Abreu, it's always a gamble these days when you're dealing with someone's late thirties. But I don't think 3/$59M is crazy for that bat at all. For the Sox, I'd want Abreu at that price over Schwarber at 4/$79M, and I would have been happy with Schwarber at 4/$79. Abreu just put up his best contact rates of his career and still hits the ball as hard as ever. It's very rare to get a >.350 wOBA bat on the market for just a 3-year commitment.

Signing Haniger makes a ton of sense at this point. Or maybe there's a deal we could make with Dave for Rhys Hoskins' final year of arb — maybe even a straight swap of Hosmer. Rhys Hoskins isn't my favorite hitter, but he walks a lot, hits the ball hard and has a great deal of loft and pull power. The problem would be that he might not want to DH in his walk year, but maybe he can spell Casas at first against tough lefties.
 

nvalvo

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(crossposting from offseason moves thread)

I like Bell quite a bit but have to think someone will give him more money to be a first baseman than we would to mostly DH. As for Abreu, it's always a gamble these days when you're dealing with someone's late thirties. But I don't think 3/$59M is crazy for that bat at all. For the Sox, I'd want Abreu at that price over Schwarber at 4/$79M, and I would have been happy with Schwarber at 4/$79. Abreu just put up his best contact rates of his career and still hits the ball as hard as ever. It's very rare to get a >.350 wOBA bat on the market for just a 3-year commitment.

Signing Haniger makes a ton of sense at this point. Or maybe there's a deal we could make with Dave for Rhys Hoskins' final year of arb — maybe even a straight swap of Hosmer. Rhys Hoskins isn't my favorite hitter, but he walks a lot, hits the ball hard and has a great deal of loft and pull power. The problem would be that he might not want to DH in his walk year, but maybe he can spell Casas at first against tough lefties.
I would pursue Masataka Yoshida from Orix before Haniger. Yoshida's 29, and has a .950 OPS in NPB's Pacific League (the league with the rep as having better pitching) with moderate pop and crazy good contact/discipline skills (he has had a number of seasons where he walked twice as often as he struck out) that make me feel like his offense would translate pretty well.

I love a Hoskins acquisition as a DH and RH side of a 1B platoon, especially with Refsnyder and his .880 OPS against lefties in our bench picture. I wouldn't completely bench Casas against lefties — he needs to see some for his development — but I would give him his days down against them.

Something like:
  • Casas gets 100 starts at first against righties and 20 against lefties, with a few more PH appearances. Call it 550 PA.
  • Hoskins is option one at DH against righties, and also picks up 35 starts at 1B against lefties. 650 PA.
  • Refsnyder spells the outfielders and picks up some DH starts against lefties. 200 PA.
 

chawson

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I would pursue Masataka Yoshida from Orix before Haniger. Yoshida's 29, and has a .950 OPS in NPB's Pacific League (the league with the rep as having better pitching) with moderate pop and crazy good contact/discipline skills (he has had a number of seasons where he walked twice as often as he struck out) that make me feel like his offense would translate pretty well.
Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
Dustin Pedroia would like a word with you.
 

jon abbey

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Dustin Pedroia would like a word with you.
The lefty/righty thing coming into play here also, Pedroia had a career .850 OPS at home and .759 on the road. Yoshida is a lefty (and a bad defensive outfielder, FWIW), I don't want him for NY and they badly need a LHH outfielder.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
I don't really expect much power; it's the 90 BB to 50 K plate discipline numbers that I like.