What does 2023 look like?

Sin Duda

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Jul 16, 2005
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In fact, it reflects positively on Bloom because he (and his staff) know how to evaluate pitchers beyond a simplistic stat such as pitches over 98 mph.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Part of it is also the Red Sox 2 hardest throwing starters (Paxton 96.2 & Bello 96.0) haven't played much & their hardest throwing relievers (Ort 95.8 & Brasier 95.1) were bad at baseball.

Plus it's cold in Boston.

(all those #s from Baseball Savant/Statcast & are avg speed of their 4-seamers this year, minimum 100 pitches - Martin also at 95.1

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenals?year=2023&min=100&type=avg_speed&hand=)

But yeah, mostly it just doesn't matter. It's a fun stat, but the conclusion just appears to be to get to a preconceived notion.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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If there's no positive correlation between that list & how well a team pitches... how could it possibly reflect negatively on the GM that they are low on the list?
The bottom teams on that list are among the worst pitching teams, so there is some correlation. The best pitching teams appear in the middle of the pack on the list, which suggest to me that you need at least some ability to throw hard.
 

LogansDad

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The bottom teams on that list are among the worst pitching teams, so there is some correlation. The best pitching teams appear in the middle of the pack on the list, which suggest to me that you need at least some ability to throw hard.
But the Red Sox currently have the 14th best reliever ERA (MLB wide, and I am also assuming that is where a lot of those 98+ are coming from), and their overall number is trending (slowly but surely) in the right direction. Assuming health for Sale/Paxton/Bello and even a little regression towards the mean for Kluber, the starters could easily end up league average within the next few weeks as well. I won't argue that the pitching has been "good" so far, but it is definitely trending better and I wouldn't even be a little surprised for it to end up being a decent overall staff when all is said and done.

Pivetta may ruin the bullpen numbers, though.

And the team is 25-20.

I just fail to see how this silly stat should even be remotely considered an indictment on Bloom at this point in the season. It's a snippet, which is fun in baseball (it's what we do), but judging a GM off of snippets is more or less useless.
 

EricFeczko

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Apr 26, 2014
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Not sure where best to put this but this is a poor reflection on Chaim IMO

View: https://twitter.com/codifybaseball/status/1659664105794420737?s=46
I think its just a reflection of the fact that Chaim inherited a farm system with a track record of terrible pitching development stretching back nearly two decades to Theo Epstein. Its going to take more than 2-3 years to overcome that.

EDIT: Its much easier just to point to team ERA to say the red sox pitching is bad -- though mostly driven by the early season lack of starting pitching, and the bullpen has been OK. If Sale, Paxton, Bello continue to progress, the starting pitching looks entirely different moving forward.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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They strikeout 0.01 more hitters per 9 innings than the best pitching team in baseball. Clearly they are striking out the correct # of hitters.

But yeah, there are tons of more interesting & predictive stats than # of pitches that have been 98+.

& the Red Sox definitely need to pitch better. We'll see how the season goes.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Jun 6, 2012
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David Hamilton has a Sox MiLB high of 9 HR w/ 21 steals. He might be lining himself up as a Sept. call-up if he can sustain this production. Very promising.
 

chrisfont9

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David Hamilton has a Sox MiLB high of 9 HR w/ 21 steals. He might be lining himself up as a Sept. call-up if he can sustain this production. Very promising.
His career season high was 12 last year. Also where was he in 2019? He played independent ball during the pandemic, which is smart (as long as you didn't get covid), and has moved quickly in two seasons since. He could be useful pretty soon if Story moves to SS. [My Adalberto optimism is fading.] At the moment we have a lot of guys for those middle infield spots, although the "reyes is awesome now" piece probably reverts back to something else?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm getting Duran-in-2021-vibes from Hamilton. He's having a really good year without doubt, but so was Duran in 2021. Both experienced their surges after making adjustments in their plate approaches and gaining power. Duran's obviously wasn't sustainable (his current success has been attributed to other adjustments). Maybe Hamilton's will be. I wouldn't expect him to be much of an impact player for the 2023 big club, except maybe in a Dave Roberts/Quinton Berry type role.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
15,805
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I'm getting Duran-in-2021-vibes from Hamilton. He's having a really good year without doubt, but so was Duran in 2021. Both experienced their surges after making adjustments in their plate approaches and gaining power. Duran's obviously wasn't sustainable (his current success has been attributed to other adjustments). Maybe Hamilton's will be. I wouldn't expect him to be much of an impact player for the 2023 big club, except maybe in a Dave Roberts/Quinton Berry type role.
With Yoshida/Refsnyder, Duran/Kike and Verdugo in the OF, and Duvall eventually returning, there’s no room for Hamilton. Unless there’s a spate of OF injuries, let him continue to develop.
 

LogansDad

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I'm getting Duran-in-2021-vibes from Hamilton. He's having a really good year without doubt, but so was Duran in 2021. Both experienced their surges after making adjustments in their plate approaches and gaining power. Duran's obviously wasn't sustainable (his current success has been attributed to other adjustments). Maybe Hamilton's will be. I wouldn't expect him to be much of an impact player for the 2023 big club, except maybe in a Dave Roberts/Quinton Berry type role.
I remain convinced that the team's internal scouting values him way more highly than any of the publicly available reports we have seen, and the reason he isn't being called up is because they view him as a solid contributor for the future who isn't quite ready yet and they want to keep him in AAA for his development. I think he would be better than, say, Pablo Reyes (who will definitely regress from his current .853 OPS), but I think the team really wants him to focus on being ready for next year.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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Hamilton cannot play defense and the overall numbers at the plate don’t really match what scouts see.

The base running is very real, but again the defense really limits his floor and ceiling.
 

grimshaw

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Hamilton, at the very least went from organizational depth to a phone call away. I don't think anyone thought about him contributing in Boston until he started hitting late last season.
I'm not even sure where he would fit on the roster even with all the injuries to middle infield guys.
 

YTF

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Hamilton, at the very least went from organizational depth to a phone call away. I don't think anyone thought about him contributing in Boston until he started hitting late last season.
I'm not even sure where he would fit on the roster even with all the injuries to middle infield guys.
There's another thing to keep in mind with some of these depth guys that Bloom is acquiring. Other teams may be looking to acquire depth guys. Hamilton's play this season may draw interest from other teams or having guys like Hamilton as depth might allow Bloom to consider other moves.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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There's another thing to keep in mind with some of these depth guys that Bloom is acquiring. Other teams may be looking to acquire depth guys. Hamilton's play this season may draw interest from other teams or having guys like Hamilton as depth might allow Bloom to consider other moves.
Players like that are also good candidates for trades of equally talented-but-flawed prospects who might be better fits for the respective trade partners.
 

chrisfont9

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Just a note that alleged Red Sox target, who was the subject of a lot of whingeing this offseason when he signed with Houston -- Jose Abreu -- currently has zero HRs and a 52 OPS+. The Sox did supposedly offer him roughly 3x14, so Chaim can count this as "rather be lucky than good".
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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grimshaw

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Other players of note (some only by me admittedly). In reverse order of wRC+

OOF!!

JBJ - .149/.213/.214
Mitch Haniger - .211/.228/.329
Andrus - .201/.280/.254
Franchy - .151/.182/.396
Baez - .238/.292/.335
Hernandez would be here
Eric Hosmer - .234/.280/.330
Yuli Gurriel - .224/.288/.368
Vazquez - .229/.305/.257

Stone dead in a moment

Casas would be here
Trea Turner .256/.303/.390
Machado .231/.282/.372
Grisham /.186/.302/.345
Pham - .208/.300/.364
Wong would be here

Think they're getting better

McGuire would be here
Tapia would be here

Benintendi .279/.339/.355
Correa .213/.302/.396
Ha-Seong Kim .236/.319/.368

They feel fine

Contreras .237/.321/.393
Bryant .287/.364/.413
Schwarber - .177/.322/.421
Kepler - 212/.298/.444
Conforto - .213/.321/.418

Think they'll go for a walk

Frazier .250/.335/.407
Justin Turner .272/.362/.414
Renfroe /.261/.313/.473
Devers /.254/.296/.530
Valdez .321/.345/.476
Castellanos .295/.340/.459
X .257/.357/.404

They feel happy

Reynolds .287/.335/.489
Swanson .267/.374/.409
Bellinger .271/.337/.493
Verdugo /.290/.366/.464
Nimmo .291/.374/.418
Moncada - .301/.346/.479
JDM - /.264/.310/.566
Happ .288/.407/.442
Betts .250/.357/.506

They feel happy x 2

Gallo - 205/.321/.563
Yoshida .308/.384/.494
Duran /.321/.376/.518

Murphy .273/.395/.554
Judge .299/.400/.642
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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Add one of the similar problems that doomed the ‘22 team are still haunting the ‘23 team. Starters that give up too many BB’s and HR’s. Bullpen inconsistency and a maddeningly streaky offense that appears to still be looking to play 3-true outcome station to station baseball. Occasional boneheaded decisions on the basepaths and on defense.
That said…. The Sox are clearly a better team than the ‘22 version across all those aspects but it really has me wondering about Cora. I don’t think he’s a net positive coach but more and more I’m beginning to think he imparts a poor discipline on the team that is at the root of the inconsistency….
 

Benj4ever

New Member
Nov 21, 2022
390
Add one of the similar problems that doomed the ‘22 team are still haunting the ‘23 team. Starters that give up too many BB’s and HR’s. Bullpen inconsistency and a maddeningly streaky offense that appears to still be looking to play 3-true outcome station to station baseball. Occasional boneheaded decisions on the basepaths and on defense.
That said…. The Sox are clearly a better team than the ‘22 version across all those aspects but it really has me wondering about Cora. I don’t think he’s a net positive coach but more and more I’m beginning to think he imparts a poor discipline on the team that is at the root of the inconsistency….
It drives me nuts every time I see a guy admiring a "home run," then having to sprint to 2B at the last second to get a double.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
New Hampshire
Other players of note (some only by me admittedly). In reverse order of wRC+

OOF!!

JBJ - .149/.213/.214
Mitch Haniger - .211/.228/.329
Andrus - .201/.280/.254
Franchy - .151/.182/.396
Baez - .238/.292/.335
Hernandez would be here
Eric Hosmer - .234/.280/.330
Yuli Gurriel - .224/.288/.368
Vazquez - .229/.305/.257

Stone dead in a moment

Casas would be here
Trea Turner .256/.303/.390
Machado .231/.282/.372
Grisham /.186/.302/.345
Pham - .208/.300/.364
Wong would be here

Think they're getting better

McGuire would be here
Tapia would be here

Benintendi .279/.339/.355
Correa .213/.302/.396
Ha-Seong Kim .236/.319/.368

They feel fine

Contreras .237/.321/.393
Bryant .287/.364/.413
Schwarber - .177/.322/.421
Kepler - 212/.298/.444
Conforto - .213/.321/.418

Think they'll go for a walk

Frazier .250/.335/.407
Justin Turner .272/.362/.414
Renfroe /.261/.313/.473
Devers /.254/.296/.530
Valdez .321/.345/.476
Castellanos .295/.340/.459
X .257/.357/.404

They feel happy

Reynolds .287/.335/.489
Swanson .267/.374/.409
Bellinger .271/.337/.493
Verdugo /.290/.366/.464
Nimmo .291/.374/.418
Moncada - .301/.346/.479
JDM - /.264/.310/.566
Happ .288/.407/.442
Betts .250/.357/.506

They feel happy x 2

Gallo - 205/.321/.563
Yoshida .308/.384/.494
Duran /.321/.376/.518

Murphy .273/.395/.554
Judge .299/.400/.642
I really wanted Gallo over this past off-season. Walks a ton, still fairly young and a gold glover.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
New Hampshire
Add one of the similar problems that doomed the ‘22 team are still haunting the ‘23 team. Starters that give up too many BB’s and HR’s. Bullpen inconsistency and a maddeningly streaky offense that appears to still be looking to play 3-true outcome station to station baseball. Occasional boneheaded decisions on the basepaths and on defense.
That said…. The Sox are clearly a better team than the ‘22 version across all those aspects but it really has me wondering about Cora. I don’t think he’s a net positive coach but more and more I’m beginning to think he imparts a poor discipline on the team that is at the root of the inconsistency….
If they can stay in the wild card hunt until Duvall and Story come back, than get hot going into playoffs. They might do some damage.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
4,279
Portland
I guess they'll have a Chang v. Valdez decision.
I honestly would rather move on from Arroyo (and Hernandez). I think Valdez' bat outweighs Arroyo's glove. Chang is more useful defensively. Arroyo may be worth a lottery ticket.