What does 2023 look like?

simplicio

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Duran appears to have as much promise as Casas.
I don't think that's true. He's fast and his defense has certainly improved over the debacles we saw from him last year, but outside of his insane start this year, he's been really bad.
April WRC+: 189
May: 79
June: 47
Those last two numbers track pretty closely with his 2021 (48) and 2022 (78) seasons.

Casas on the other hand always had a far better hit tool, per scouts, and after a terrible April (61) has been trending in the right direction toward what he was expected to be (108, 156).
 

tims4wins

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I don't think that's true. He's fast and his defense has certainly improved over the debacles we saw from him last year, but outside of his insane start this year, he's been really bad.
April WRC+: 189
May: 79
June: 47
Those last two numbers track pretty closely with his 2021 (48) and 2022 (78) seasons.

Casas on the other hand always had a far better hit tool, per scouts, and after a terrible April (61) has been trending in the right direction toward what he was expected to be (108, 156).
Casas since May 1:
.264 / .359 / .473 / .831

That's a solid bat
 

dhappy42

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I don't think that's true. He's fast and his defense has certainly improved over the debacles we saw from him last year, but outside of his insane start this year, he's been really bad.
April WRC+: 189
May: 79
June: 47
Those last two numbers track pretty closely with his 2021 (48) and 2022 (78) seasons.

Casas on the other hand always had a far better hit tool, per scouts, and after a terrible April (61) has been trending in the right direction toward what he was expected to be (108, 156).
The MLB trade calculator values Casas at 28.3and Duran at 23.2. Not that that means too much, but Duran has reasonably good value. It’s not unreasonable to pencil him into a 2025 lineup as a cost-controlled CFer.
 

simplicio

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The MLB trade calculator values Casas at 28.3and Duran at 23.2. Not that that means too much, but Duran has reasonably good value. It’s not unreasonable to pencil him into a 2025 lineup as a cost-controlled CFer.
It is if he can't find a way to hit for more than one month per season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Casas since May 1:
.264 / .359 / .473 / .831

That's a solid bat
That's an elite first baseman! The problem is that he seems to be perpetually getting hits when nobody is on base. Not really his problem there... but as has been pointed out, he tends to K when there are. I suspect that's likely just random. He's going to be a middle of the order bat for years. Consistent 30 HR .850+ OPS. Defense will improve.
 

tims4wins

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The problem is that he seems to be perpetually getting hits when nobody is on base. Not really his problem there... but as has been pointed out, he tends to K when there are. I suspect that's likely just random.
Observation matches stats. .905 OPS with bases empty, .544 with men on. 33 K in 109 PA with men on (30.2%) vs. 22 in 93 with bases empty (23.7%)

18 BB / 22 K with bases empty vs. 13 / 33 with men on. That's no bueno.
 

simplicio

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True, but applies to Casas too.
Yes, but where's the cause for concern with Casas? Again, his April sucked, but everything else he's shown in Boston has been average to great.

We're now on year 3 of Duran showing us what he is. Which is very, very bad outside of his hot month in spring.
Edit: fixed
 
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chawson

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This isn't the thread for it, but the offensive signings have been collective failures as well.

If nothing else, Bloom showed good restraint and he is free to try again in 2024 while others lick their wounds.
(Moving this from the 2023 Starting Pitching Thread)

Curious, who are you thinking of here?

Turner, Duvall, Tapia and Yoshida have combined for a 126 wRC+ mark over 661 PAs. No other major league signings beyond that unless we count Chang or Kiké's re-signings.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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(Moving this from the 2023 Starting Pitching Thread)

Curious, who are you thinking of here?

Turner, Duvall, Tapia and Yoshida have combined for a 126 wRC+ mark over 661 PAs. No other major league signings beyond that unless we count Chang or Kiké's re-signings.
Think he’s referring to the league as a whole; guys like Abreu, Conforto, Correa, Xander, Benintendi.
 

grimshaw

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(Moving this from the 2023 Starting Pitching Thread)

Curious, who are you thinking of here?

Turner, Duvall, Tapia and Yoshida have combined for a 126 wRC+ mark over 661 PAs. No other major league signings beyond that unless we count Chang or Kiké's re-signings.
[/QUO
Think he’s referring to the league as a whole; guys like Abreu, Conforto, Correa, Xander, Benintendi.
Correct
 

LogansDad

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This team feels like they are "getting on the same page" away from being a really good team. They went a month with incredible hitting and the worst pitching imaginable. Then, they went a month with very good pitching, and an offense that has been worse than I think most of us were fearful of. If they can get both going at the same time, there is something here. Of course, if they both go into a funk at the same time, we are totally boned.

I do enjoy watching them play (outside of Kiké at SS), and that's as much as I can really ask for as a fan at this point.
 

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This team feels like they are "getting on the same page" away from being a really good team. They went a month with incredible hitting and the worst pitching imaginable. Then, they went a month with very good pitching, and an offense that has been worse than I think most of us were fearful of. If they can get both going at the same time, there is something here. Of course, if they both go into a funk at the same time, we are totally boned.

I do enjoy watching them play (outside of Kiké at SS), and that's as much as I can really ask for as a fan at this point.
The starting pitching is really encouraging, and while I enjoyed the run of having CHRIS FUCKING SALE back, let's see what we really have in Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, and Houck. If Schreiber can come back, that would really help with the bullpen, and I can't wait for Story to return.
 

E5 Yaz

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The starting pitching is really encouraging, and while I enjoyed the run of having CHRIS FUCKING SALE back, let's see what we really have in Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, and Houck. If Schreiber can come back, that would really help with the bullpen, and I can't wait for Story to return.
Agreed about the starting pitching, but I wonder if Paxton can hold up. Bello looks as though he's found something, and doesn't pitch with the same anxiety he did when first coming up

To me, th issue is ... are there too many teams to climb over to make the playoffs?
 

bosockboy

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Agreed about the starting pitching, but I wonder if Paxton can hold up. Bello looks as though he's found something, and doesn't pitch with the same anxiety he did when first coming up

To me, th issue is ... are there too many teams to climb over to make the playoffs?
Yeah, it’ll take a 10-12 game winning streak somewhere along the line to do some leapfrogging.
 

Chainsaw318

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If you want to concede Baltimore the 1st wildcard, which some may, then you have 4 teams ahead of Boston, with two of those in the wild card positions (NYY and HOU), and two outside (TOR and LAA).

The Red Sox haven’t played Houston yet this season, and are 9-5 versus the others so far (2-1 against NYY, 4-0 against TOR and 3-4 against LAA).

If the Red Sox are closer to the 9-5 team against those clubs the rest of the way, or the team that is 32-26 against anyone who isn’t the Tampa Bay Rays, then they should hang around without a lengthy winning streak being the only thing that keeps them in the mix.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Any word on when Schreiber could be back? I know the latest was that he just started playing catch and seems like it could be a it. Feel like they are really missing him in the pen. That being said, Pivetta’s splits as a reliever (4 bb/14 k, 1 HR in 12 2/3, WHIP <1), are more than encouraging and he’s come up pretty huge lately.

Is it crazy to want Reyes at SS going forward? Know he’s not much of a bat but having a reliable fielder there, with Kike at 2b, makes me feel a lot more comfortable at least.
 

joe dokes

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Is it crazy to want Reyes at SS going forward? Know he’s not much of a bat but having a reliable fielder there, with Kike at 2b, makes me feel a lot more comfortable at least.
Not at all. I dont know much about Reyes's fielding reputation (is he a typical good glove, no bat guy?), but, by way of recent example, the whole team seem to be a little better stitched together while Yu Chang was the regular SS.
 

8slim

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2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3.

Runs scored, past 10 games.

My concern this season was the rotation, I never thought we’d hit this poorly. What a mess.
 

Humphrey

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2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3.

Runs scored, past 10 games.

My concern this season was the rotation, I never thought we’d hit this poorly. What a mess.
Considering Duvall is still not up to par and Story isn't playing at all; you have a 1,2,3,4 hitter and everyone else is a 8-9; not conducive to consistent offense. And the #4 guy has had a lot of bad games, including last night.
 

8slim

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Considering Duvall is still not up to par and Story isn't playing at all; you have a 1,2,3,4 hitter and everyone else is a 8-9; not conducive to consistent offense. And the #4 guy has had a lot of bad games, including last night.
Sure, but we’ve been dealing with that for nearly the entire season and the O held up. Until recently. We really need guys to get out of their respective funks and hit.
 

Harry Hooper

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2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3.

Runs scored, past 10 games.

My concern this season was the rotation, I never thought we’d hit this poorly. What a mess.
Those totals include some extra-inning runs. The offensive output is even weaker than the raw numbers.
 

E5 Yaz

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Why does that mean something is “brewing”? Seems like Devers was probably just pissed after a frustrating night, no?
True, but it's the third time in recent days that someone refused to speak after a frustrating night. The "something" might simply be frustration ... rewrote my post
 

BaseballJones

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Teams always seem "worse" - more lethargic, impotent, desultory, whatever - when the offense is performing poorly. When the pitching is terrible and the offense is crushing it (and they're losing games 8-7) at least it feels like the team has life, that no game is ever over because the offense can rally. And at least the fans have something interesting to watch so they stay engaged. But when they're losing 2-1 and 3-2 games, it feels like the team just has NOTHING going on, and when the opponent goes up 2-0 in the second inning, it already feels like the game is over. That's super discouraging for the fans and players alike, even if the ultimate outcome (losing a lot of games, and a lot of close games) is the same.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The offense has disappeared and the defense has gotten even worse, which is something I never thought possible. Both were reasons why they lost last night at home to a horrible team.

They have zero room for error and yet are constantly shooting themselves in the foot with defensive errors and baserunning stupidity. I'd be concerned if the clubhouse wasn't tense.
 

joe dokes

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The offense has disappeared and the defense has gotten even worse, which is something I never thought possible. Both were reasons why they lost last night at home to a horrible team.

They have zero room for error and yet are constantly shooting themselves in the foot with defensive errors and baserunning stupidity. I'd be concerned if the clubhouse wasn't tense.
This is where Justin Turner takes them all go-karting or something to relieve the stress. Or Casas invites the team over and makes them dinner. (Obligatory Casey Stengel joke about '62 Mets -- "it was Throneberry's birthday, but we didn't get him a cake 'cuz we figured he'd drop it.").
 

LoLsapien

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I guess the good news is that we have some demonstration that the pitching does have the capability to be quite good (presently 13th in MLB xFIP despite the truly awful start, 8th over the past month). And the offense has the capability to be near top of the league good (11th in MLB WRC+ overall despite being 23rd in that category during this past month). If they can tread water at 0.500 for a while and manage to put it all together at some point, it's not inconceivable that this team could chip away at the deficit and make a late season run.

Of course, this could be one of those seasons where the Rays, Orioles, and Yankees are juggernauts but I'm not convinced that's the case yet. It would probably help if the Sox could maybe improve upon their 27th ranked defense (by runs saved, -10, according to FG). Their 48 errors is 2nd worst in MLB.
 

BaseballJones

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Boston's pitching and defense:

- #23 in MLB in era at 4.55.

- Exactly MLB average era+ of 101.

- #24 in MLB in runs allowed at 4.88 per game.

- #29 in MLB in # of errors (i.e., 2nd most errors) with 47.

- #29 in MLB in fielding percentage at .980.
 

Niastri

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I guess the good news is that we have some demonstration that the pitching does have the capability to be quite good (presently 13th in MLB xFIP despite the truly awful start, 8th over the past month). And the offense has the capability to be near top of the league good (11th in MLB WRC+ overall despite being 23rd in that category during this past month). If they can tread water at 0.500 for a while and manage to put it all together at some point, it's not inconceivable that this team could chip away at the deficit and make a late season run.

Of course, this could be one of those seasons where the Rays, Orioles, and Yankees are juggernauts but I'm not convinced that's the case yet. It would probably help if the Sox could maybe improve upon their 27th ranked defense (by runs saved, -10, according to FG). Their 48 errors is 2nd worst in MLB.
All this is true, plus if they get Mondesi and Story back, they'll suddenly have one of the better middle infields in the game.

Mondesi is very good when in the field and we all know how good Story can be at 2nd, even with a bad arm. Now that it's been repaired...

The pitching will get better having Hernandez at a position at which he excels and having plus defenders at short and second, actual growth in the pitchers abilities would be expected, but the cherry on top.

I think I would be actually optimistic about Paxton, Whitlock, Bello and Houck following Sale in the order after the recent rotation of starts... Too bad Sale's out for a while. Hopefully Crawford stretches out without losing effectiveness.
 

BaseballJones

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Agreed. Defensively - if this ever comes to fruition - the Red Sox are markedly better with Mondesi at SS, Story at 2b, and Kiké in CF.
 

8slim

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Agreed. Defensively - if this ever comes to fruition - the Red Sox are markedly better with Mondesi at SS, Story at 2b, and Kiké in CF.
The challenge is that (a) we still need to hit and Mondesi and Kike aren’t good at that, and (b) if w ever see a Mondesi/Story middle IF it might me mid-August and we’ll already be 10 games out of the last WC.
 

BaseballJones

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The challenge is that (a) we still need to hit and Mondesi and Kike aren’t good at that, and (b) if w ever see a Mondesi/Story middle IF it might me mid-August and we’ll already be 10 games out of the last WC.
Sure. But....what do you suggest as the alternative? (I brought this up because of the question of Boston's defense, and suggested that this setup will help them tremendously defensively)
 

joe dokes

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Sure. But....what do you suggest as the alternative? (I brought this up because of the question of Boston's defense, and suggested that this setup will help them tremendously defensively)
At a minimum, get Yu Chang back at SS ASAP.
I no longer care of his wrist is sore when he swings. Let him stand there like Rudy Stein. As long as he can play the field. [/hyperbole]
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sure. But....what do you suggest as the alternative? (I brought this up because of the question of Boston's defense, and suggested that this setup will help them tremendously defensively)
Play the best defensive SS you have at the position (Reyes). Kiki can play 2b, Arroyo is the backup (or vice versa). The downgrade in offense from Arroyo to Reyes doesn’t seem terribly significant to me .

(If Chang comes back, he can replace Reyes).
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I'll go ahead and ask the question - why not Yorke? He's now had 50 games at AA and is certainly producing offensively (.901OPS / 144 wRC+, whichever one prefers) and I believe he is regarded as acceptable defensively (SoxProspects calls him "fringe average"), but maybe somebody that sees him more in Portland can chime in there.

You tell him there is no pressure (because the team is predictably in last place in the division already as it is), and he's heading back down once Story and Mondessi are ready with the expectation to work on whatever flaws MLB pitchers expose in his game because they aren't getting exposed at his current assignment.

Plenty of what I think we consider "smart" organizations are bringing guys up after less than 100 games at the high minor levels and letting them learn in the majors and then sending them back if necessary with things to actively work on.

Just a few examples of guys that have come up and stuck, or come up, gone down, come back up, off the top of my head - Cleveland did it with Kwan with only 51g in AA, 26 in AAA and up; Walls only had 55g at AA in 2019 (then the pandemic) followed by 52 in AAA and then up; Atlanta did it with Harris (43g in AA) and Grissom (22g in 2022 and then 40g in AAA this year). I'm discounting the top 10 in the game type prospects like Julio Rodriguez (46g in AA); Franco (skipped AA but 47g in AA) because I don't personally see Yorke as that kind of prospect, and don't believe the industry does either, but I do equate him to someone like Kwan, Walls or Grissom.

He could very well be worse than Kike, Arroyo, Chang, Reyes or Valdez but seeing as to how the "best" among them (Arroyo at an 86 OPS+) to worst among them (Chang at a 35 OPS+) have all ranged between terrible to unfathomably terrible, he could also be better.

At least he'd be more interesting.
 
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Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Boston's pitching and defense:

- #23 in MLB in era at 4.55.

- Exactly MLB average era+ of 101.

- #24 in MLB in runs allowed at 4.88 per game.

- #29 in MLB in # of errors (i.e., 2nd most errors) with 47.

- #29 in MLB in fielding percentage at .980.
I'm shocked they are in last place with that kind of production.
 

moondog80

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I'll go ahead and ask the question - why not Yorke? He's now had 50 games at AA and is certainly producing offensively (.901OPS) and I believe he is regarded as a good defensive 2b - but maybe somebody whom sees him more in Portland can chime in there.

You tell him there is no pressure (because the team is predictably in last place in the division already as it is), and he's heading back down once Story and Mondessi are ready with the expectation to work on whatever flaws MLB pitchers expose in his game because they aren't getting exposed at his current assignment.

Plenty of what I think we consider "smart" organizations are bringing guys up after less than 100 games at the high minor levels and letting them learn in the majors and then sending them back if necessary with things to actively work on.

Just a few examples of guys that have come up and stuck, or come up, gone down, come back up, off the top of my head - Cleveland did it with Kwan with only 51g in AA, 26 in AAA and up; Walls only had 55g at AA in 2019 (then the pandemic) followed by 52 in AAA and then up; Atlanta did it with Harris (43g in AA) and Grissom (22g in 2022 and then 40g in AAA this year). I'm discounting the top 10 in the game type prospects like Julio Rodriguez (46g in AA); Franco (skipped AA but 47g in AA) because I don't personally see Yorke as that kind of prospect, and don't believe the industry does either, but I do equate him to someone like Kwan, Walls or Grissom.

He could very well be worse than Kike, Arroyo, Chang, Reyes or Valdez but seeing as to how the "best" among them (Arroyo at an 86 OPS+) to worst among them (Chang at a 35 OPS+) have all ranged between terrible to unfathomably terrible, he could also be better.

At least he'd be more interesting.
Because Yorke's development is the priority, especially when it's not at all clear that he would be a significant improvement for a team with only a marginal chance at the postseason.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Couldn't the argument be made that he'd gain more developmentally from MLB level coaching and having his flaws exposed? That is meant to be serious and in no way a snarky comment.

Or even if one assumes that players (generally speaking) come up and are exposed at the MLB level the way they aren't in the minors, wouldn't it be better to take those lumps in a "lost" season anyway. For example, I continue to believe that Casas is going to be a good MLB player. I'm very glad that he's taking his lumps and adjusting up here now as opposed to demolishing AAA pitching for no real value only to (likely, because this is the case with most players) come up and struggle in a year that the Sox actually did have a "more realistic than everything going incredibly right" chance to be good.

Just to use someone like Grissom as an example - he continues to be incredibly good in AAA (118 wRC+) but struggling in the bigs, he probably isn't being challenged, so how much is he developing in AAA? Of course, Atlanta has a legitimate shot to win the World Series, so obviously they can't just let him struggle in the bigs.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a legitimate shot to watch the World Series on better televisions than we have and could certainly let him take his lumps.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Couldn't the argument be made that he'd gain more developmentally from MLB level coaching and having his flaws exposed? That is meant to be serious and in no way a snarky comment.

Or even if one assumes that players (generally speaking) come up and are exposed at the MLB level the way they aren't in the minors, wouldn't it be better to take those lumps in a "lost" season anyway. For example, I continue to believe that Casas is going to be a good MLB player. I'm very glad that he's taking his lumps and adjusting up here now as opposed to demolishing AAA pitching for no real value only to (likely, because this is the case with most players) come up and struggle in a year that the Sox actually did have a "more realistic than everything going incredibly right" chance to be good.
He’s only half a season at AA after a poor prior year (likely injury related ). He’s still too green. Maybe this time next year (if he’s not traded)
 

LogansDad

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Couldn't the argument be made that he'd gain more developmentally from MLB level coaching and having his flaws exposed? That is meant to be serious and in no way a snarky comment.

Or even if one assumes that players (generally speaking) come up and are exposed at the MLB level the way they aren't in the minors, wouldn't it be better to take those lumps in a "lost" season anyway. For example, I continue to believe that Casas is going to be a good MLB player. I'm very glad that he's taking his lumps and adjusting up here now as opposed to demolishing AAA pitching for no real value only to (likely, because this is the case with most players) come up and struggle in a year that the Sox actually did have a "more realistic than everything going incredibly right" chance to be good.
I can kind of understand your thought, but in the minors the priority is ALWAYS their development, and the team is able to allow them to focus on improving the parts of their game that need to be improved, while not really worrying about wins/losses/results. I think you see it more with pitchers, who are sometimes told "anytime is is X-X count, your throw X-X pitch" while they are in the minors and stuff like that, but it is true with hitters as well. "Hey we want you to focus only on swinging at pitches you can hit the other way this week" and stuff like that. I enjoy looking at and citing minor league numbers as much as anyone, but there is almost always more going on there that what we are able to see on B-Ref or Rotowire or whatever.

Additionally, the team gets 6 years of control once the player is on the MLB roster, and the good players, which we hope guys like Yorke/Mayer et al will be, get very expensive after that. Very few teams are willing to eat the cheap years of a contract when they pretty much know the player will not be a net addition at the MLB level, where the priority changes to winning (yes, development is still a thing, but winning is much more important there).
 

astrozombie

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Couldn't the argument be made that he'd gain more developmentally from MLB level coaching and having his flaws exposed? That is meant to be serious and in no way a snarky comment.

Or even if one assumes that players (generally speaking) come up and are exposed at the MLB level the way they aren't in the minors, wouldn't it be better to take those lumps in a "lost" season anyway. For example, I continue to believe that Casas is going to be a good MLB player. I'm very glad that he's taking his lumps and adjusting up here now as opposed to demolishing AAA pitching for no real value only to (likely, because this is the case with most players) come up and struggle in a year that the Sox actually did have a "more realistic than everything going incredibly right" chance to be good.
My understanding is that this is typically not done because those "lumps" can shatter confidence and cause a player to regress. The thinking goes that they get to the majors and get exposed, then determine they need to try new things or work on mechanics (which may not be broken) or start pressing or one of a million other things that cause them to go into a tailspin. Whereas incremental progress allows a player to get comfortable at the current level, perform well and be confident about the next step. I have no idea if that is *actually* true, but I think that is the rationale.
 

moondog80

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My understanding is that this is typically not done because those "lumps" can shatter confidence and cause a player to regress. The thinking goes that they get to the majors and get exposed, then determine they need to try new things or work on mechanics (which may not be broken) or start pressing or one of a million other things that cause them to go into a tailspin. Whereas incremental progress allows a player to get comfortable at the current level, perform well and be confident about the next step. I have no idea if that is *actually* true, but I think that is the rationale.

That's the primary reason. But it also makes no sense to start Yorke's FA clock prematurely when it's unlikely to benefit either the player or the team.