What does 2023 look like?

simplicio

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And if you look at strength of schedule so far, Sox are near the top in terms of difficulty faced, and the teams ahead of them are either the actual bottom (TBR and BAL) or near it (ATL).
 

soxhop411

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And if you look at strength of schedule so far, Sox are near the top in terms of difficulty faced, and the teams ahead of them are either the actual bottom (TBR and BAL) or near it (ATL).
Yup. And even though i hate the Yankees and rays. This feels like the year we will have 2 teams in the AL east get screwed out of a playoff spot because they had the misfortune of being in the AL east. And they and their fans would have every right to complain when a 80ish win team in the central or west makes the playoffs because every other team in team in their division finished at 500 or worse.

and i don’t buy the “killing divisions will kill the rivalry (ie yankees/Sox)” arguments

the balanced schedule already killed that since there are less interdivisional games than before.

GO to AL vs NL. And have the top ____ teams in the AL and NL make the playoffs. We are pretty much almost doing that with the balanced schedule.
 

scottyno

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The AL east has been (for like 9 straight years) and continues to be the toughest division in baseball
View: https://twitter.com/soxnotes/status/1655041286078976001?s=46


Which again. Is why i will go to my grave arguing to kill divisions entirely
The negative of the Sox and Yankees being such big rivals. MLB will never split them up, and more often than not they're both going to have decent or better teams because they're always going to be among the top spenders. It helped that for years The rays were terrible and then baltimore was terrible
 

YTF

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A lot of victory laps regarding Bloom being taken a month into the season. I’m pleasantly surprised with the results and hope they stick, but a little early to declare victory. Still lots of question marks with the starting rotation, and bottom of the lineup.
I seriously don't know WTF you're talking about here. People are happy that the team is doing well and some are recognizing some of the moves that Bloom has made that have contributed to that success. The guy's been constantly shit on in these threads for the past couple of years. The fact that he's being given a little credit for a few of his acquisitions is hardly a victory lap or declaration of anything.
 

8slim

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I seriously don't know WTF you're talking about here. People are happy that the team is doing well and some are recognizing some of the moves that Bloom has made that have contributed to that success. The guy's been constantly shit on in these threads for the past couple of years. The fact that he's being given a little credit for a few of his acquisitions is hardly a victory lap or declaration of anything.
Yup. People should just enjoy the current success and spend less time trying to defend a position they staked out in January.

Personally I think what we’ve seen so far this season validates the notion that it’s possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. In other words, to rebuild the farm and compete at the major league level.
 

mikcou

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This is what comes of Bloom's much-maligned trades for so-called "mediocre prospects."

Next outfielder who gets hurt, we'll see Wilyer Abreu come up. He's posting a .367 OBP in Worcester; he'd probably be pretty decent as a fill in. Next infielder who gets hurt, we'll see David Hamilton, who also has a .367 OBP in Worcester. Less of a finished product than Abreu, but a guy you could totally start up the middle for two weeks during an IL stint. A catcher injury would bring up Jorge Alfaro, of course, who only has a .365 OBP in Worcester. (That one might need some 40-man machinations.)

Some of the depth we've been leaning on has been produced by our autochthonous prospect pipeline (e.g. Duran), but a ton of it has been assembled by Bloom in trades, waiver claims and low-level signings (Chang, Refsnyder, Alfaro, Valdez, Abreu, Hamilton, etc.).
As someone who thought they’d come in at 75-78 wins, I am pleasantly surprised by the first month. FWIW on Valdez, I liked that trade and am not surprised that he is hitting - he has hit everywhere at age appropriate levels for a prospect. The reason that he was available is also showing though - he is truly terribly defensively - he is breaking defensive metrics, which completely agree with the eye test that hes a complete butcher out there.

He will be a nice bench bat who can DH a few times a week and play the field a bit. That is a good return for half of a season of CV (and maybe Wilyer provides a bit more). I know Cora seems to think that if he focuses at second, he can improve, but he can improve a lot and still not be playable there in anything but a couple times a month/emergency basis.
 

YTF

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Yup. People should just enjoy the current success and spend less time trying to defend a position they staked out in January.

Personally I think what we’ve seen so far this season validates the notion that it’s possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. In other words, to rebuild the farm and compete at the major league level.
I agree 100%. Given the state of the team's payroll and farm system when he came in I'm really not sure how folks expected the farm to grow and get out from under some bad contracts without some growing pains. I've not been in agreement with everything that Bloom's done, but I also see and appreciate the tightrope he's been walking while trying to keep the team competitive and the organization healthy.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Pretty funny that you only have to look back a few weeks in this thread to see a bunch of people ready to fire Cora and Bloom
I know. Totally. It’s like people were commenting on the games and team as the action happened and when the team wasn’t playing very well and not wishcasting on future results that no one could accurately predict.

FUNNY!

Edit: I think most people who were down on the team at the beginning of the season just wanted a fun team to watch. The Sox are doing that and it’s a good time to follow the team.

Watching this lineup hit has been a gas.
 

nighthob

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FWIW on Valdez, I liked that trade and am not surprised that he is hitting - he has hit everywhere at age appropriate levels for a prospect. The reason that he was available is also showing though - he is truly terribly defensively - he is breaking defensive metrics, which completely agree with the eye test that hes a complete butcher out there.
He’s bidding to displace Dick Stuart as Dr. Strangeglove.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I know. Totally. It’s like people were commenting on the games and team as the action happened and when the team wasn’t playing very well and not wishcasting on future results that no one could accurately predict.

FUNNY!

Edit: I think most people who were down on the team at the beginning of the season just wanted a fun team to watch. The Sox are doing that and it’s a good time to follow the team.

Watching this lineup hit has been a gas.
I recall most people that were “down” being pissed they didn’t sign Rodon or resign Xander or sign Abreu. They just wanted He ry to spend $400k on the team payroll.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I recall most people that were “down” being pissed they didn’t sign Rodon or resign Xander or sign Abreu. They just wanted He ry to spend $400k on the team payroll.
Yeah. Again none of us here are soothsayers or can see the future. No one knew that Rodon’s back was made of Swiss cheese—and TBH I doubt that the Sox front office knew something that the Yankees FO didn’t know either.

Taking a victory lap over “knowing” something without any knowledge of the situation doesn’t prove anything. It’s two sides of the same coin.

In December Rodon was considered the best pitcher on the market. More than a handful of teams were after him. He appeared to be a solution to a problem the Sox had (and still kinda do), which is a lack of starting pitching.

That’s obviously not the case now. But the Sox FO doesn’t get a “win” for that. They get a “there but for the grace of God …”

As far as Abreau, that’s a win on their column. He’s a bit older and has seemed to follow the model. Though no one was advocating for a long term commitment and the Red Sox FO was rumored to have significant interest in him. He was just bowled over by Houston’s offer.

So I mean if he accepted the Sox’ terms he’d be here now and our problem. So not exactly cut and dry decision.
 

mikeford

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I can only speak for myself but as someone who was like "this team will probably lose 100 games", I'm still pretty down on this team! The rotation is still bad and I do not believe the offense can continue to score 8 runs every night. That part has been fun to watch but I'm not deluding myself into thinking that will last.

The Team ERA is 24th in the league, slightly ahead of the DBacks and worse than the Mets. The STARTERS Era is 27th in the league (5.89 WOOF) sandwiched between the 9-26 Kansas City Royals and the 14-21 Colorado Rockies.

Personally I don't think you can survive with starting pitching this bad. Maybe I'll be wrong.
 

simplicio

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Yeah. Again none of us here are soothsayers or can see the future. No one knew that Rodon’s back was made of Swiss cheese—and TBH I doubt that the Sox front office knew something that the Yankees FO didn’t know either.

Taking a victory lap over “knowing” something without any knowledge of the situation doesn’t prove anything. It’s two sides of the same coin.

In December Rodon was considered the best pitcher on the market. More than a handful of teams were after him. He appeared to be a solution to a problem the Sox had (and still kinda do), which is a lack of starting pitching.

That’s obviously not the case now. But the Sox FO doesn’t get a “win” for that. They get a “there but for the grace of God …”

As far as Abreau, that’s a win on their column. He’s a bit older and has seemed to follow the model. Though no one was advocating for a long term commitment and the Red Sox FO was rumored to have significant interest in him. He was just bowled over by Houston’s offer.

So I mean if he accepted the Sox’ terms he’d be here now and our problem. So not exactly cut and dry decision.
I'm in the camp as someone who very much wanted Abreu, but only as a DH at DH prices. Had no interest in matching the deal Houston game him. Obviously feeling very much like a bullet dodged there and grateful for Turner either way.

I don't recall a ton of interest here about Rodon? We've already lived through multiple years of Sale and Eovaldi; paying career year $$$ for someone with Rodon's combination of age and injury history seemed like signing up for more of the same.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I'm in the camp as someone who very much wanted Abreu, but only as a DH at DH prices. Had no interest in matching the deal Houston game him. Obviously feeling very much like a bullet dodged there and grateful for Turner either way.

I don't recall a ton of interest here about Rodon? We've already lived through multiple years of Sale and Eovaldi; paying career year $$$ for someone with Rodon's combination of age and injury history seemed like signing up for more of the same.
Yeah. I mean I wasn't devastated that he went to the Yankees. But I thought he might be a good addition to the staff, not a one but a solid two or three who should be able to help the team, at the right price. Like you said, the Sox dodged a bullet. I think that most people were on the same page as I don't think that anyone thought that Rodon was the second coming of Pedro and that losing him to the Yankees was some monumental sin. He made more sense for NY as someone that could be slotted behind Cole and Nestor rather than Boston where his high salary would make people assume that he is an ace.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah. I mean I wasn't devastated that he went to the Yankees. But I thought he might be a good addition to the staff, not a one but a solid two or three who should be able to help the team, at the right price. Like you said, the Sox dodged a bullet. I think that most people were on the same page as I don't think that anyone thought that Rodon was the second coming of Pedro and that losing him to the Yankees was some monumental sin. He made more sense for NY as someone that could be slotted behind Cole and Nestor rather than Boston where his high salary would make people assume that he is an ace.
Wasnt there concern expressed here about Rodon's durability?
 

TFisNEXT

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I can only speak for myself but as someone who was like "this team will probably lose 100 games", I'm still pretty down on this team! The rotation is still bad and I do not believe the offense can continue to score 8 runs every night. That part has been fun to watch but I'm not deluding myself into thinking that will last.

The Team ERA is 24th in the league, slightly ahead of the DBacks and worse than the Mets. The STARTERS Era is 27th in the league (5.89 WOOF) sandwiched between the 9-26 Kansas City Royals and the 14-21 Colorado Rockies.

Personally I don't think you can survive with starting pitching this bad. Maybe I'll be wrong.
There may be some signs of a little more optimism. The Red Sox are 11th in the league in K/BB ratio and 15th/16th in xFIP/SIERA respectively. This implies that they aren't pitching as bad as their ERA indicates. Nobody is going to confuse them with an elite pitching staff, but if they can get themselves into league average territory as the underlying metrics show, an upgrade at the trade deadline could possibly push them into an above average staff.

A lot will depend on if Paxton can be effective and if Chris Sale has shaken off the command issues that plagued his first 4-5 starts of this year. I've had high hopes for Bello too, but that might be more for 2024 rather than 2023.
 

joe dokes

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There may be some signs of a little more optimism. The Red Sox are 11th in the league in K/BB ratio and 15th/16th in xFIP/SIERA respectively. This implies that they aren't pitching as bad as their ERA indicates. Nobody is going to confuse them with an elite pitching staff, but if they can get themselves into league average territory as the underlying metrics show, an upgrade at the trade deadline could possibly push them into an above average staff.

A lot will depend on if Paxton can be effective and if Chris Sale has shaken off the command issues that plagued his first 4-5 starts of this year. I've had high hopes for Bello too, but that might be more for 2024 rather than 2023.
A lot will also depend on how the defense goes. It's hard to forecast an extreme like "terrible," but I don't really see a path beyond average, and that's if Story returns and can play credible SS.
 

chawson

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There may be some signs of a little more optimism. The Red Sox are 11th in the league in K/BB ratio and 15th/16th in xFIP/SIERA respectively. This implies that they aren't pitching as bad as their ERA indicates. Nobody is going to confuse them with an elite pitching staff, but if they can get themselves into league average territory as the underlying metrics show, an upgrade at the trade deadline could possibly push them into an above average staff.

A lot will depend on if Paxton can be effective and if Chris Sale has shaken off the command issues that plagued his first 4-5 starts of this year. I've had high hopes for Bello too, but that might be more for 2024 rather than 2023.
It looks even better from April 6th on, FWIW, which lops off the first two homestands of pitching in 35-40 degree weather.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Of course the Red Sox , Yankees and every other team in baseball knew Rodon was an injury risk. High risk, very high reward. Same as DeGrom.
This FO has made it pretty clear that those types of players are the ones they're not in on unless the risk is baked into the contract as with Story taking sub-$150 million (which ended up blowing up in their face anyway). Rodon was never a real bet to come here unless he was willing to take short-term years or dollars (i.e. three or four years at like $25–30 million per)
 

koufax32

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This FO has made it pretty clear that those types of players are the ones they're not in on unless the risk is baked into the contract as with Story taking sub-$150 million (which ended up blowing up in their face anyway). Rodon was never a real bet to come here unless he was willing to take short-term years or dollars (i.e. three or four years at like $25–30 million per)
Your overall point stands but I’m not sure we’re at blow up in their face territory yet with Story.
 

scottyno

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I can only speak for myself but as someone who was like "this team will probably lose 100 games", I'm still pretty down on this team! The rotation is still bad and I do not believe the offense can continue to score 8 runs every night. That part has been fun to watch but I'm not deluding myself into thinking that will last.

The Team ERA is 24th in the league, slightly ahead of the DBacks and worse than the Mets. The STARTERS Era is 27th in the league (5.89 WOOF) sandwiched between the 9-26 Kansas City Royals and the 14-21 Colorado Rockies.

Personally I don't think you can survive with starting pitching this bad. Maybe I'll be wrong.
A big function of this is playing at fenway and the quality of teams they've played so far. The team has a 97 era+, so just below average when you factor those in.
 

moondog80

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A big function of this is playing at fenway and the quality of teams they've played so far. The team has a 97 era+, so just below average when you factor those in.
I had a "that's because of the bullpen, the starters have been crap" response teed up. But...

Starters:
ERA 5.89
FIP 5.13
xFIP 4.33

Bullpen:
ERA 3.46
FIP 3.98
xFIP 4.50

So...I guess we can maybe expect some regression in both directions that should end up as a net gain, because the starters will improve more than the bullpen will get worse, and they will also pitch more innings?
 

TheYellowDart5

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Your overall point stands but I’m not sure we’re at blow up in their face territory yet with Story.
I think if he misses this entire season it's fair to call it that, and I'm pessimistic he makes it back, but noted, too soon to say
 

iddoc

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Nov 17, 2006
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I’m surprised more consternation has not been expressed about, with Arroyo going on the IL, our having exactly one competent middle infielder on the ML roster right now, plus Exxon Valdez. Perhaps that ground has been tread upon plenty already. I guess we’ll be seeing Kike at SS and Valdez at 2B until Arroyo gets back. Maybe Dalbec vs LHP, at either position. Yikes.

Has anyone heard anything further about Mondesi? Seems almost time for him to start a minor league rehab stint.
 

scottyno

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I had a "that's because of the bullpen, the starters have been crap" response teed up. But...

Starters:
ERA 5.89
FIP 5.13
xFIP 4.33

Bullpen:
ERA 3.46
FIP 3.98
xFIP 4.50

So...I guess we can maybe expect some regression in both directions that should end up as a net gain, because the starters will improve more than the bullpen will get worse, and they will also pitch more innings?
It is because of the bullpen, but as it relates to team era and winning games they both count. So yeah, overall the rotation has been terrible so far, but if the team as a whole keeps pitching to around league average they should win a lot of games.

Plus in theory Paxton and Whitlock returning should help the rotation, and the likely move of Houck to the bullpen should help the pen.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Has anyone heard anything further about Mondesi? Seems almost time for him to start a minor league rehab stint.
From MLB.com
INF Adalberto Mondesi (torn right ACL)
Expected return:
June or later
Mondesi was placed on the 60-day injured list on March 30, which makes him eligible to play for the Red Sox on May 30 at the earliest. However, he isn't going to be ready that soon. Manager Alex Cora said Mondesi is scheduled to come to Boston soon and meet with the team's medical staff.

The key for Mondesi will be when he is cleared to start a Minor League rehab assignment. (Last updated: May 3)
 

JM3

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Naw - now we get the Diekman miracle redemption arc (followed by an arm injury).
 

grimshaw

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Yes we all hate the yankees. But…
They are 5th in the AL.

They would be in first in the central
Tied for 2nd in the west
2nd in the NL east
3rd in the NL central
3rd in the NL west

The AL east will be a blood bath this year
The image is showing all 10 teams in order of record from the AL East and Central
 

nvalvo

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If I did this right:

Team, W% overall, W% within the AL East

TB, .783, .667
BAL, .639, .455
TOR, .583, .400
BOS, .568, .500
NY, .541, .444

That's right: Boston has the second best winning percentage within the AL East within the AL East.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This seems like a strange move. His defensive numbers at 2B/SS aren't that great. He can't hit very well. Does it make sense to anyone? An Arroyo replacement?
Seems like that is exactly what he is. He has to be a better alternative as the utility infielder than Dalbec. And like Zack Littell, who was also acquired for cash considerations, he's expendable the moment another middle infielder (be it Arroyo or Chang or Story or Mondesi) is ready to return from the IL.
 

derekson

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He doesn't need to go on the 40, does he?

Seems like just some Worcester depth while Valdez sticks in Boston.
For our current roster he'd be more useful than Dalbec. If he can play competent defense at 2B and SS he's a good piece for the bench right now.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He doesn't need to go on the 40, does he?

Seems like just some Worcester depth while Valdez sticks in Boston.
It appears he doesn't. He's been assigned to Worcester but has not appeared on the 40-man roster.

They do have the spot available should they decide to call him up.
 

JM3

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The top 5 on that list all have a losing record...

ERA stats, sure...Red Sox are 5th worst. Of course, 3 of the 4 teams worse than them are in the top 5 on that list.
 

tims4wins

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There seems to be little correlation between this list and the team ERA list, agreed. But 14 is an absurdly low number in today's game.
 

JM3

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There seems to be little correlation between this list and the team ERA list, agreed. But 14 is an absurdly low number in today's game.
If there's no positive correlation between that list & how well a team pitches... how could it possibly reflect negatively on the GM that they are low on the list?