What does 2023 look like?

Petagine in a Bottle

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Brantley is interesting but I’m not sure another hitter who struggles against LH is ideal. Although frankly, that’s one of the problems with Conforto too.
 

nvalvo

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How sure are we that Casas is the starting first baseman next year? He looked the part in his 27 games up, but didn’t exactly mash — 197/358/408.
Well, he very pointedly did not mash for his first two weeks or so, and then he was tremendous.

Okay, but first 14 games: .079/.205/.237, 6 BB to 12 K in 44 PA
Last 13 games: .316/.490/.579, 13 BB to 11 K in 51 PA

I'm not saying I'm expecting a 1.000+ OPS from him next season, but I'd give him the job, maybe with a RHH complement to spell him against the some lefties. He's a top-20 prospect league-wide for a reason.
 

mikcou

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He's been about a 108 OPS+ guy for the last couple years, so it's not like Hosmer is garbage. With a decent glove and experience to impart on Casas, he has some possible value. Also he's a reverse split, so you actually DO want him in there vs lefties. Whether it will work, I don't know, but it's hardly insane to think of them in a job share.
A 108 OPS+ for a below league average defensive 1B is a pretty terrible player. At the trade deadline last year there was only one team that had worse production at first than the Padres - that was the Dalbec/Cordero awfulness.

Again there is a reason, the Padres paid for everything for a fringe prospect (although he was the best prospect going either way in any of the Sox deals) - its because he isnt a starting caliber 1Bman anymore and when a guy cant play another position, its hard to carry him anywhere else on the roster.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well, he very pointedly did not mash for his first two weeks or so, and then he was tremendous.

Okay, but first 14 games: .079/.205/.237, 6 BB to 12 K in 44 PA
Last 13 games: .316/.490/.579, 13 BB to 11 K in 51 PA

I'm not saying I'm expecting a 1.000+ OPS from him next season, but I'd give him the job, maybe with a RHH complement to spell him against the some lefties. He's a top-20 prospect league-wide for a reason.
Yup. He’s another guy that isn’t going to improve against AAA pitching. He needs reps and he needs to have Cora fucking expose him to good lefties- or just okay lefties…. Any damned lefty!!!- for him to be able to improve against them. He’ll struggle but I really hope that final chapters on hitters aren’t being penned based on time in the minors.
Casas should 100% no doubt be the starter on opening day.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Brantley is interesting but I’m not sure another hitter who struggles against LH is ideal. Although frankly, that’s one of the problems with Conforto too.
Not ideal, but the ideal guys cost $300M instead of $15-30M. With Brantley splitting time between LF and DH you could probably guarantee enough at bats to get someone like Adam Duvall to sign on and balance out the outfield. The other half of the DH at bats could be split up between Dalbec/Arroyo/Refsnyder either directly or through giving the starters a day off their feet.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Hosmer would definitely have to go, but he doesn't really make sense on the roster anyway. Unless I am forgetting someone, Duvall as the nominal LF and Brantley at DH makes 13 with a C/Dalbec/Arroyo/Ref bench.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, I was forgetting about DH :)

So you could sign both those guys and make it work. But agree that I don’t see how Hosmer can stick around unless Casas is hurt.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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This maybe should be a separate thread, but it seems to fit here. What would people think is a “good enough” off-season for us? I think resigning X, extending Devers, bringing back EO on the QO or a 2 year deal for a lower AAV, adding one mid-priced arm (mid-rotation starter or solid late inning reliever), and an OF in the Haniger range would be enough to get us back in the hunt. I’d also be very interested in a quantity for quality trade given our 40 man issues.
 

nvalvo

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I tried to brainstorm the most aggressive vaguely plausible postseason I could think of. Like, if Bloom called and asked me what he should do to maximize the odds of a World Series title in 2023 while only going $20m over the CBT number ($232 + $20 = $252m), what would I tell him?
  • We'd make certain to come out on top of the Judge sweepstakes. Call it 9/$300.
  • We'd retain Bogaerts. 7/$180.
  • We'd do a deal with Milwaukee in which we swapped Verdugo and Yelich to get Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams. We'd also have to add a prospect or three: call it Matthew Lugo and Luis Perales or equivalent.
  • We'd trade Mayer, Crawford, Pivetta, Yorke and Duran to Anaheim for Ohtani.
So this would leave us with a rotation of Ohtani R, Sale L, Woodruff R, Paxton L, Bello R, with Whitlock R in the bullpen until someone isn't healthy. ~$50m

A bullpen of CL Barnes R, Relief Ace Williams R, SU Houck R, SU Schreiber L, MR Mata R, MR Walter L, SW Whitlock R, multi-inning low leverage Winckowski R. ~$20m

2B Story R
DH Ohtani L
RF Judge R
3B Devers L
SS Bogaerts R
1B Casas L
CF Hernández R
LF Yelich L
C McGuire L

~$170m

A bench of C Wong R, IF Arroyo R, OF Refsnyder R, IF Chang R. ~$5m

That lineup is insane, the bullpen has lots of high-leverage, high-upside guys, many of whom can throw multiple innings, and the rotation has a high floor and a sky-high ceiling.

This team costs a lot, but the estimated ~$245m would have been 5th in 2022, between the Phillies and Padres. And we send out a ton of prospect capital and take on a bunch of long-term commitments and risk. We're probably not extending Devers, unless we want to go to Mets/Dodgers levels of payroll. And this team makes it pretty likely that the 2028 Red Sox are going to be a weird mess. We'd still have Bleis and Rafaela.

But another thing is that BTV thinks that both of those trades heavily favor the Brewers (by $55m) and Angels (by ~$20m). If — big if — they included some cash to bring them closer to level, we could both build this team and come in under the cap.
 
Scroll past if you don't want a healthy dose of doom and gloom ...

I can see no path to success with the 2023 Red Sox, primarily because they have ZERO bullpen arms. It is completely unreasonable to expect Bloom to "find" four or five quality bullpen arms amidst the flotsam and jetsam of free agency - he can toss 15 tons of crap up against the wall and it just isn't going to stick. I know people are going to point to Schreiber and maybe Barnes, but sidewinders don't seem to have long-term effectiveness in MLB because hitters figure them out after they've seen them a few times and the fact that Barnes sucked less late in the season when there was zero pressure on him to succeed does not a resurgence make.

I do not know why the Red Sox have not been able to produce even a single decent bullpen arm from the farm system in over a decade, but that is the sad truth and it transcends the Bloom ascendancy, although he certainly hasn't done anything to rectify that singular problem. I don't think that guys like Seabold, Winckowski and Crawford have the stuff that translates well into bullpen conversion and for all the hype, Houck has not shown the consistency (or perhaps even the desire) to be effective in the bullpen. It is possible that guys like Bello and Mata could be converted to relieving, but both of them have front-of-the-rotation potential (as does Whitlock), so that would seem counterproductive.

Addressing any other part of the team - upgrading the OF, adding a starter or two, finding a DH, etc, seems fairly pointless if they aren't going to be able to hold leads in the second half of ballgames.

Time to punt?
 

chrisfont9

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Per a throwaway line in an Alex Speier story, Sox interested in Brian Reynolds. Houck plus prospects? No idea what the price would be, but given the organizational makeup OF seems like the position they most likely need to fill externally. No enticing FA options now that Nimmo has a QO attached (and I know not everyone saw him as enticing to begin with). Anyway, Reynolds makes sense... except maybe defensively. He's played LF and CF only, and he went from being a plus defender per basic metrics (I can't really decipher the advanced defensive stuff) to a negative.
 

chawson

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Wonder if we'll see Bloom swing a trade in the next 36 hours or so. The 40-man stands at 37, and the deadline to add minor leaguers for Rule 5 protection is tomorrow (Tuesday) evening.

The Sox already added Enmanuel Valdez to the roster, and seem very likely to add all of Rafaela, Murphy, Walter, Ward and Gonzalez. That's 42. You could make a case for Abreu, Paulino, Politi, Wallace, Scott, Bonaci or David Hamilton could be added too — or maybe someone else on the bubble I'm forgetting — but that's a lot of roster spots for guys who aren't likely to contribute in 2023.

Without a trade, Bloom needs to clear two roster spots at minimum. We could easily get there with a couple DFA candidates (which include, to varying degrees of conceivability, Reed, Caleb Hamilton, Chang, Brasier, Cordero, Ronaldo Hernández, Darwinzon Hernández, Ort, Seabold, Downs or Taylor). But maybe there's another path? We'd probably want to keep a few roster spots on the 40-man open for other moves, because everyone is anticipating a busy offseason. And it seems better to keep some of our DFA bubble guys in the system until we absolutely have better options who can contribute at the major-league level.
 
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mikcou

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Wonder if we'll see Bloom swing a trade in the next 36 hours or so. The 40-man stands at 37, and the deadline to add minor leaguers for Rule 5 protection is tomorrow (Tuesday) evening.

The Sox already added Enmanuel Valdez to the roster, and seem very likely to add all of Rafaela, Murphy, Walter, Ward and Gonzalez. That's 42. You could make a case for Abreu, Paulino, Politi, Wallace, Scott, Bonaci or David Hamilton could be added too — or maybe someone else on the bubble I'm forgetting — but that's a lot of roster spots for guys who aren't likely to contribute in 2023.

Without a trade, Bloom needs to clear two roster spots at minimum. We could easily get there with a couple DFA candidates (which include, to varying degrees of conceivability, Reed, Caleb Hamilton, Chang, Brasier, Cordero, Ronaldo Hernández, Darwinzon Hernández, Ort, Seabold, Downs or Taylor). But maybe there's another path? We'd probably want to keep a few roster spots on the 40-man open for other moves, because everyone is anticipating a busy offseason. And it seems better to keep some of our DFA bubble guys in the system until we absolutely have better options who can contribute at the major-league level.
These trades rarely happen because most teams fringe roster guys arent any better than other teams fringe roster guys - at least not in anyway that is material enough to do a deal. You have a long list of guys who are are pretty fringe and a number (Reed, Caleb Hamilton, Chang, Ort) who arent the answer to really any major league roster question.
 

simplicio

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Every team is dealing with the same compounded Rule 5 crunch we are; getting teams to take marginal guys right now seems unlikely. My guess is we see DFAs here and across the league, and then hopefully Chaim can work his Rule 5 magic on the pickings.
 

sezwho

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Every team is dealing with the same compounded Rule 5 crunch we are; getting teams to take marginal guys right now seems unlikely. My guess is we see DFAs here and across the league, and then hopefully Chaim can work his Rule 5 magic on the pickings.
Was thinking the same thing. Curious how much "one man's trash is another's treasure" we'll end up actually seeing.
 

Mueller Lite

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I'm very much preparing myself for Xander to go to Philly in the next couple of weeks and the FO to continue to say how they tried their hardest to retain Xander blah blah blah. I've been trying to explore what a SS replacement could look like in trade if Bloom doesn't go get one of the remaining elite SS in FA and I stumbled upon a deal that would solve many problems in the short term for the Red Sox. I really hope the solution isn't to move Story to SS. Now, I do agree that the optics of going and trading for Hunter Renfroe is pretty bad but is this really an awful deal for either side?

SS WIlly Adames- Baseball Trade Value: 41.3 (2 Years of control)
RF Hunter Renfroe- Baseball Trade Value: 0 (1 Year of control)
LHRP- Brent Suter- Baseball Trade Value: 0 (1 Year old control)

For

Tanner Houck- Baseball Trade Value: 18.5
Nick Yorke- Baseball Trade Value: 12.1
Jarren Duran- Baseball Trade Value: 5.9
 

jcormjmac

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Just Saw this -but only place i have seen any of these Names...


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The biggest need for Boston is in the offense, with their outfield decidedly lacking in production. And while losing Bogaerts will hurt them, they are likely to replace him with a like-for-like replacement, with most rumors centering on them picking up Dansby Swanson from Atlanta.
In the outfield, they are reportedly showing strong interest in nabbing Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates, despite reports coming out of Pittsburgh that there is little desire to let him go. The Sox are also reported to be interested in several of the Diamondbacks’ outfielders. As an organization, the Diamondbacks have outfielders in spades, all but one hitting from the left side, and giving up one or more would not seriously dent their productivity.


Souce -

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Early MLB trade rumors: Phillies, Red Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers
Jeffrey May - 2h ago


 

chrisfont9

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I'm very much preparing myself for Xander to go to Philly in the next couple of weeks and the FO to continue to say how they tried their hardest to retain Xander blah blah blah. I've been trying to explore what a SS replacement could look like in trade if Bloom doesn't go get one of the remaining elite SS in FA and I stumbled upon a deal that would solve many problems in the short term for the Red Sox. I really hope the solution isn't to move Story to SS. Now, I do agree that the optics of going and trading for Hunter Renfroe is pretty bad but is this really an awful deal for either side?

SS WIlly Adames- Baseball Trade Value: 41.3 (2 Years of control)
RF Hunter Renfroe- Baseball Trade Value: 0 (1 Year of control)
LHRP- Brent Suter- Baseball Trade Value: 0 (1 Year old control)

For

Tanner Houck- Baseball Trade Value: 18.5
Nick Yorke- Baseball Trade Value: 12.1
Jarren Duran- Baseball Trade Value: 5.9
Is the point of this trade that we need to spend assets and take on expiring contracts to get Adames? You might be on to something, and also Suter is a Harvard grad, so maybe he wants to stick around. But getting Renfroe back is salary relief for Milwaukee, so I don't see why we have to pay quite so high a price. I don't think the Sox sell low on Yorke.
 

Mueller Lite

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I would hope it wouldn't take Yorke to get the deal done, but I know how valuable Adames is. I did like that Suter was from Harvard. Reminded me a bit of Craig Breslow and even a guy who could come back to coach in the future. If the deal only takes Houck, Duran, Seabold or Winckowski then that'd be fantastic in my eyes.
 

chrisfont9

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Just Saw this -but only place i have seen any of these Names...


Boston Red Sox
The biggest need for Boston is in the offense, with their outfield decidedly lacking in production. And while losing Bogaerts will hurt them, they are likely to replace him with a like-for-like replacement, with most rumors centering on them picking up Dansby Swanson from Atlanta.
In the outfield, they are reportedly showing strong interest in nabbing Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates, despite reports coming out of Pittsburgh that there is little desire to let him go. The Sox are also reported to be interested in several of the Diamondbacks’ outfielders. As an organization, the Diamondbacks have outfielders in spades, all but one hitting from the left side, and giving up one or more would not seriously dent their productivity.


Souce -
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Early MLB trade rumors: Phillies, Red Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers
Jeffrey May - 2h ago
Reynolds was mentioned in a throwaway line by Speier last week so that one seems to just be reverberating around. No evidence there's anything more there.
 

chrisfont9

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I would hope it wouldn't take Yorke to get the deal done, but I know how valuable Adames is. I did like that Suter was from Harvard. Reminded me a bit of Craig Breslow and even a guy who could come back to coach in the future. If the deal only takes Houck, Duran, Seabold or Winckowski then that'd be fantastic in my eyes.
That's pretty good in your post-Xander scenario. Window lines up with when Mayer should arrive. They can take the X money and spend more on pitching.
 

jon abbey

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I think both Reynolds and Sean Murphy are going to command big packages if moved, bigger than they're actually worth IMO. Some teams like the Dodgers or Rays can afford to deal this kind of prospect package, but I don't think the Red Sox are one of them yet (and I don't think the Yankees really are currently either).
 

Mueller Lite

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That's pretty good in your post-Xander scenario. Window lines up with when Mayer should arrive. They can take the X money and spend more on pitching.
It would be close. Mayer may need a chunk of the 2025 season after Adames becomes a FA but you figure that out when it happens. The 3 players coming back will just about equal how much Xander cost this past year. Your Outfield situation is set for 2023, your SS is set for 2 more years and you get a LHRP who can hopefully pitch in high leverage innings which they desperately need.
 

simplicio

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Would running back the 2021 outfield be "set"? Certainly felt at the time like we were catching lightning in a bottle; not sure I like our chances of doing that twice.
 

OCD SS

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As much as X looks to be in a slow decline, Swanson looks like he's coming off a career year and is just as likely to be overpaid. 2022 is his first season other than 2020 with a WRC+ over 100, and his defense also had a big spike last season (always beware single season variances in defensive metrics). You also can't shift him anywhere else on the diamond, X's bat at least carries him a bit more as he slides down the defensive spectrum...

I guess Swanson might be overpaid for less per year over a smaller number of years, but unless Swanson is coming on a very short term deal you might wind up spending more on his performance ($/war) for not getting elite talent out of that roster spot...

Edit: apparently this is already a fangraphs.com article.
 
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The Gray Eagle

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They didn't protect Thad Ward? Wow, I wouldn't be surprised if he is taken. I'll be bummed if they keep Brasier, Ort., etc. around and lose Ward.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They didn't protect Thad Ward? Wow, I wouldn't be surprised if he is taken. I'll be bummed if they keep Brasier, Ort., etc. around and lose Ward.
Taken doesn't necessarily mean lost with Rule 5. And with a lot of teams facing a crunch of rule 5 eligibles and a lack of roster space, it might be that a lot of guys slip through the draft.
 

grimshaw

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Interesting they kept Hamilton. Maybe they think he'll get on base enough with the shift ban that his ridiculous speed will be enough of an asset to contribute at some point.
 

chawson

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Interesting they kept Hamilton. Maybe they think he'll get on base enough with the shift ban that his ridiculous speed will be enough of an asset to contribute at some point.
Maybe it means Duran is headed for a trade? Seems like a fairly redundant skill set and Hamilton is probably a better defensive outfielder anyway.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Hamilton's best month of the year was September. Must have left a strong impression with the FO.

.379 BA
.453 OBP
.576 SLG

77 plate appearances, he had 5 doubles, a triple, two HR and 10 stolen bases.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Maybe it means Duran is headed for a trade? Seems like a fairly redundant skill set and Hamilton is probably a better defensive outfielder anyway.
While Duran is a pretty atrocious fielder, Hamilton has a total of 18 innings of center field play under his belt between his minor league and collegiate tenures. Not sure his outfield play figured much into his 40 man addition.
 

chawson

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While Duran is a pretty atrocious fielder, Hamilton has a total of 18 innings of center field play under his belt between his minor league and collegiate tenures. Not sure his outfield play figured much into his 40 man addition.
Probably not, but he isn’t added for his infield defense either, and a lot of scouts ultimately project him for the outfield. The speed-first utility player who hits from the left-hand side is an interesting profile but we don’t need two of them, and I’m not sure what Duran adds that Hamilton doesn’t.
 

grimshaw

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Hamilton's best month of the year was September. Must have left a strong impression with the FO.

.379 BA
.453 OBP
.576 SLG

77 plate appearances, he had 5 doubles, a triple, two HR and 10 stolen bases.
That and maybe Christian Koss also being Rule 5 eligible and a better fielder.
Though I don't think he'd get taken.

Edit: Didn't play in the AFL this season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The current OF’s under control isn’t very inspiring; hopefully they add a few upgrades which probably means trading at least one of Verdugo and Duran. Hamilton’s speed interesting, but he’s already 25. Is the hit tool there?
 

moondog80

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Marlins release Elieser Hernandez

Chaim should be all over Elieser Hernandez; I'm surprised the Marlins didn't want to keep him around as a bullpen arm at his projected $1.8 million arbitration number. He's struggled with some injuries and inconsistency as a starter but is still only 27 and is not far removed from an exceptional 2020 campaign.
2.1 HR/9 for his career, including 2.7 this past year. Pass.
 

Super Nomario

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Probably not, but he isn’t added for his infield defense either, and a lot of scouts ultimately project him for the outfield. The speed-first utility player who hits from the left-hand side is an interesting profile but we don’t need two of them, and I’m not sure what Duran adds that Hamilton doesn’t.
Duran has shown some ability to hit in the minor leagues; Hamilton hasn't.
 

YTF

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The current OF’s under control isn’t very inspiring; hopefully they add a few upgrades which probably means trading at least one of Verdugo and Duran. Hamilton’s speed interesting, but he’s already 25. Is the hit tool there?
At this point, moving Verdugo creates another hole. That doesn't mean that Verdugo can't be moved, but if including him enhances any deal for a proven, needed piece I'd much rather move Duran.
 

Super Nomario

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Hamilton has shown elite stolen base skills; Duran hasn't. Duran has also shown an inability to hit in MLB. I'm ready to move on. Not saying Hamilton will stick, just that I'm ready to let Duran go and see what Hamilton can do.
Oh I think Duran sucks, but I was answering the question ("what Duran adds that Hamilton doesn’t"). It hasn't translated to MLB but Duran has shown the ability to hit throughout the minors. He has zero baseball instincts and his fielding is terrible, so even if he hit a little bit, he would still stink. Hamilton's a different player with some interesting strengths but his hitting looks marginal, and he's not young.