What does 2023 look like?

Manramsclan

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Groundhog day in here.
No one cares about Henry's money. What I do care about is spending $300 million on an aging pitcher for two good seasons, and then spending the next 6 seasons paying that pitcher to barely play somewhere else with our once in a lifetime superstar talent that we had to trade because of it.

Also, I would love for the Red Sox to be at the level of the Dodgers/Braves/Astros etc. where it would be worth it to be profligate spenders for Scherzer, Verlander, because it might put us over the top. The Sox are not there. The best they can do is hope sign their own talent first, and trust their own evaluations on the talent in the minors enough to come through.

Would I like to see them sign Correa for $300 Million? Yes I would. But better to sign X first for $100M less and have some organizational continuity and some surety about performance in the market and sign Devers to that $300M or so deal.

The problem with this team and organization has not been NOT spending. It's been spending on the wrong damn things.
 

mikcou

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Bogaerts just opted out of a contract he signed before he reached free agency. There were plenty of rumors of the Red Sox offering Betts long term deals, including the reported 10/300M offer he rejected prior to the 2019 season. There have also been stories about Devers being given extension offers as well. If that they were rejected is entirely on the team rather than the players, then let's stop using the Braves example as aspirational because they lucked into players willing to leave money on the table.

And again, as far as the one or two years into their career thing, there is context we're ignoring. The Braves didn't have a huge payroll when they signed Acuna and Albies and Riley. The Sox payroll was, as usual, top 5 (#1 in Devers' case) in the league when these guys were at that stage. Whether we liked it or not, they were paying Sandoval and Ramirez and Price and Sale and Kimbrel the money that should/could have been offered to Bogaerts and Betts in their first couple seasons. If they didn't offer those guys early extensions, it was because they needed to balance the big contracts. If they signed them to extensions early, maybe we don't get 2018. Choices were made. That doesn't mean it's an all encompassing organizational philosophy. After all, Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz all signed extensions early in their careers. They just inked Whitlock to a similar deal one year into his career. But by all means, it has to be that the Sox brass are idiots who couldn't be bothered with extending their young players.
The post your replied to specifically mentioned making offers to players in their first two years or so. Xander signed at the beginning of his last year of arb. The offer to Betts was right before he was traded. Devers' offer was after four years of service time. I agree that there is some context historically, but that isnt there at this point. They can decide to spend on Xander or Devers or not. They have almost nothing committed right now past 2024 (and minimal amounts for 2024); they can effectively do whatever they want.

There are two general strategies - use early years to negotiate long term deals at favorable rates or use early years to spend on other players. They have for the last 10 years have followed the latter strategy and not signed their stars young (as compared to Pedroia and Lester), but rather waited and taken the low salaries early in the player's career rather than spreading.

Again this was all in the context of discussing the Astros, Dodgers, etc. and how they have others coming up. That is true, but allowing all your stars to walk is not how those teams have approached their star talent. I'd love if they signed Devers this offseason, but if he leaves after Xander leaves, they need to seriously look internally as to what is happening as they will have no one to blame but themselves.
 

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It feels like some of the nuances around this topic of signing young stars long term aren’t being fully vetted. The Henry Sox have spent big money almost every year, often times trying to keep pace with or just ahead of NY, which spends both bigly and wisely (unfortunately). That’s made it difficult to hit reset like the Astros did. It leaves less flexibility under the LT than a team like Atlanta has. It’s also contributed to the team’s practice of taking advantage of the first few cheap years of production from their young stars as an offset to the huge contracts they give out to FAs like Price. And because they can and do spend near or above $200M every year (top 6 each year over the past decade+, except ‘20), it seems like they’re willing to end up paying more (X’s 6/$120) later, when they have a better feel for how good the player is, than take the risk that the guy they think is going to be a star turns into Cody Bellinger instead.

For present purposes, much of the conversation in this thread seems to be more applicable to the question of whether the Sox should be offering 7-8 deals right now to Casas and Bello rather than a full market deal to Devers.
 

chrisfont9

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It feels like some of the nuances around this topic of signing young stars long term aren’t being fully vetted. The Henry Sox have spent big money almost every year, often times trying to keep pace with or just ahead of NY, which spends both bigly and wisely (unfortunately). That’s made it difficult to hit reset like the Astros did. It leaves less flexibility under the LT than a team like Atlanta has. It’s also contributed to the team’s practice of taking advantage of the first few cheap years of production from their young stars as an offset to the huge contracts they give out to FAs like Price. And because they can and do spend near or above $200M every year (top 6 each year over the past decade+, except ‘20), it seems like they’re willing to end up paying more (X’s 6/$120) later, when they have a better feel for how good the player is, than take the risk that the guy they think is going to be a star turns into Cody Bellinger instead.

For present purposes, much of the conversation in this thread seems to be more applicable to the question of whether the Sox should be offering 7-8 deals right now to Casas and Bello rather than a full market deal to Devers.
That's a good question. I am a no there. They can get deals done after another year or two when there is more certainty about their future. Both seem like good bets but not exactly Julio Rodriguez bets.
 

sean1562

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The Red Sox have not had a 1B with an OPS over 120 since Hanley Ramirez in 2016. Devers seems like he wants to test the FA market. If Casas has a good season at 1B, maybe the thinking is his bat will replace Devers and they can sign a 3B that is a plus defensively with a bat that hovers in the 80-100 OPS+ range. A lot depends on what they think of Mayer and Rafaela and how quickly they will reach the majors. If they sign Xander they could slide him over to 3B after next season but obviously there is no guarantee he will be a good defensive 3B.
 

chawson

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My thought is similar... sign a guy we can platoon somewhere and hit DH. If we are looking for someone to get some work at 1b then Josh Bell might be a good fit. If we need some outfielder depth as well as DH then Haniger might be a good fit there as well as a few other names. Paying Abreu crazy money to just DH is just that ... crazy. Really nothing gets solved until Xander decides.
(crossposting from offseason moves thread)

I like Bell quite a bit but have to think someone will give him more money to be a first baseman than we would to mostly DH. As for Abreu, it's always a gamble these days when you're dealing with someone's late thirties. But I don't think 3/$59M is crazy for that bat at all. For the Sox, I'd want Abreu at that price over Schwarber at 4/$79M, and I would have been happy with Schwarber at 4/$79. Abreu just put up his best contact rates of his career and still hits the ball as hard as ever. It's very rare to get a >.350 wOBA bat on the market for just a 3-year commitment.

Signing Haniger makes a ton of sense at this point. Or maybe there's a deal we could make with Dave for Rhys Hoskins' final year of arb — maybe even a straight swap of Hosmer. Rhys Hoskins isn't my favorite hitter, but he walks a lot, hits the ball hard and has a great deal of loft and pull power. The problem would be that he might not want to DH in his walk year, but maybe he can spell Casas at first against tough lefties.
 

nvalvo

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(crossposting from offseason moves thread)

I like Bell quite a bit but have to think someone will give him more money to be a first baseman than we would to mostly DH. As for Abreu, it's always a gamble these days when you're dealing with someone's late thirties. But I don't think 3/$59M is crazy for that bat at all. For the Sox, I'd want Abreu at that price over Schwarber at 4/$79M, and I would have been happy with Schwarber at 4/$79. Abreu just put up his best contact rates of his career and still hits the ball as hard as ever. It's very rare to get a >.350 wOBA bat on the market for just a 3-year commitment.

Signing Haniger makes a ton of sense at this point. Or maybe there's a deal we could make with Dave for Rhys Hoskins' final year of arb — maybe even a straight swap of Hosmer. Rhys Hoskins isn't my favorite hitter, but he walks a lot, hits the ball hard and has a great deal of loft and pull power. The problem would be that he might not want to DH in his walk year, but maybe he can spell Casas at first against tough lefties.
I would pursue Masataka Yoshida from Orix before Haniger. Yoshida's 29, and has a .950 OPS in NPB's Pacific League (the league with the rep as having better pitching) with moderate pop and crazy good contact/discipline skills (he has had a number of seasons where he walked twice as often as he struck out) that make me feel like his offense would translate pretty well.

I love a Hoskins acquisition as a DH and RH side of a 1B platoon, especially with Refsnyder and his .880 OPS against lefties in our bench picture. I wouldn't completely bench Casas against lefties — he needs to see some for his development — but I would give him his days down against them.

Something like:
  • Casas gets 100 starts at first against righties and 20 against lefties, with a few more PH appearances. Call it 550 PA.
  • Hoskins is option one at DH against righties, and also picks up 35 starts at 1B against lefties. 650 PA.
  • Refsnyder spells the outfielders and picks up some DH starts against lefties. 200 PA.
 

chawson

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I would pursue Masataka Yoshida from Orix before Haniger. Yoshida's 29, and has a .950 OPS in NPB's Pacific League (the league with the rep as having better pitching) with moderate pop and crazy good contact/discipline skills (he has had a number of seasons where he walked twice as often as he struck out) that make me feel like his offense would translate pretty well.
Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
Dustin Pedroia would like a word with you.
 

jon abbey

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Dustin Pedroia would like a word with you.
The lefty/righty thing coming into play here also, Pedroia had a career .850 OPS at home and .759 on the road. Yoshida is a lefty (and a bad defensive outfielder, FWIW), I don't want him for NY and they badly need a LHH outfielder.
 

nvalvo

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Yoshida is interesting, but at 5-foot-8 I'd be wary of how those power numbers translate to the majors. I don't follow NPB closely at all so don't really know what I'm talking about here, but Shogo Akiyama (6-foot-0) put up consecutive .933 and .937 OPS seasons in NPB's Pacific League before he was posted, and he was useless for the Reds.
I don't really expect much power; it's the 90 BB to 50 K plate discipline numbers that I like.
 

The Gray Eagle

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An attempt at the depth chart as of right this minute:
SP: Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton
RP: Jansen, Houck, Schreiber, Martin, Barnes, Joely, Taylor, Brasier
AAA pitchers: Crawford, Mata, Winckowski, Murphy, Seabold, Ort, Walter, Kelly, R. Miller, J. Jacques

C: McGuire, Wong
1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec
2B: Arroyo, Park, Valdez, Story
SS: Story, Kike, Park
3B: Devers, Dalbec, Valdez
LF: Yoshida, Valdez, Verdugo
CF: Kike, Valdez, Verdugo, Refsnyder
RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder
DH: Hosmer, Dalbec, Valdez, Yoshida
(That's 14 position players, so one of Park, Dalbec, or Valdez would be in AAA, more if/when we add others.)

AAA position players: Rafaela, Duran, Hamilton, Downs, Abreu

Sample lineup if we had to play right now:
Yoshida
Story
Devers
Casas
Dalbec/Hosmer
Verdugo
Kike
McGuire
Arroyo

Sign X, SP, and a bat, and that's a solid team IMO (if decently healthy)
If we don't sign X, we'd need 2 more bats.

EDIT: we now need 2 more bats. Goddamn it.
 
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sodenj5

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Trevor Story playing SS for the Sox for the next 4-5 years at 23.3 million AAV and being a perfect bridge guy to get to Marcelo Mayer is looking like a master stroke from Chaim.
 

RedOctober3829

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The thing I don’t get is that they let their homegrown guys go yet go out and give 140 million to outside guys like Trevor Story who are worse players. I now have less than zero confidence they will keep Devers. Why would anyone think it’s any different with him? They’ll have their number and it won’t be anywhere close to what Devers wants. So he’ll either walk or they’ll trade him.
 

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Except Story probably doesn't have the arm/elbow for SS anymore and will stay at 2B, ideally.
This is going to be an interesting development as the offseason rolls on. Obviously, the Sox know the real situation with his arm and whether or not SS is an option. He was an incredible second baseman last season, but was a really good SS before. If he can still play short, it clearly gives them flexibility in who they go after now.
 

Apisith

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Is Arroyo a viable SS? Or is SS mainly going to be split between Kike and Story?

If you’re a believer in Arroyo’s statcast numbers then you have to give him 500PAs to see what you have there. If he’s a viable SS then that’s a good way to get him more PAs.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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What kind of salary can Elvis Andrus? 33 years old, 249 / 303 / 404, decent enough defensively- 3 win player. Seems like an ok bridge to Mayer. But replacing X’s bat with his hurts an already lacking lineup. They really need to find some power, I guess in RF/DH/C?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The thing I don’t get is that they let their homegrown guys go yet go out and give 140 million to outside guys like Trevor Story who are worse players. I now have less than zero confidence they will keep Devers. Why would anyone think it’s any different with him? They’ll have their number and it won’t be anywhere close to what Devers wants. So he’ll either walk or they’ll trade him.
Seems to me they're simply valuing players objectively and making offers commensurate with that valuation, as any team would. Some they get right, some they don't, just like any team. Not sure why whether the player is homegrown or not has anything to do with it. They signed Story for $140M because that's what they valued him at AND HE SAID YES TO IT. They had a valuation for Bogaerts that was higher than that, but obviously not as high as the desperate Padres, so Xander is going to wear brown for the foreseeable future. That's the way the system works.

As a fan, I wish Bogaerts was staying in Boston. But if they didn't want to match/top that ridiculous contract, I'm really not going to hold it against them. And frankly, any talk about how they should have made bigger offers to extend him before he got to free agency are wishcasting at best. Bogaerts hired an assassin for an agent. The writing was on the wall that he wanted to go to market and cash in. And he did. Good for Xander.

As for Devers, there's nothing to do but continue to negotiate and make offers they feel are fair value. If he continues to say no and is intent on hitting the market, there's not a whole lot they can really do. Overpaying for the sake of overpaying to appease fans is not a formula for success.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Seems to me they're simply valuing players objectively and making offers commensurate with that valuation, as any team would. Some they get right, some they don't, just like any team. Not sure why whether the player is homegrown or not has anything to do with it. They signed Story for $140M because that's what they valued him at AND HE SAID YES TO IT. They had a valuation for Bogaerts that was higher than that, but obviously not as high as the desperate Padres, so Xander is going to wear brown for the foreseeable future. That's the way the system works.

As a fan, I wish Bogaerts was staying in Boston. But if they didn't want to match/top that ridiculous contract, I'm really not going to hold it against them. And frankly, any talk about how they should have made bigger offers to extend him before he got to free agency are wishcasting at best. Bogaerts hired an assassin for an agent. The writing was on the wall that he wanted to go to market and cash in. And he did. Good for Xander.

As for Devers, there's nothing to do but continue to negotiate and make offers they feel are fair value. If he continues to say no and is intent on hitting the market, there's not a whole lot they can really do. Overpaying for the sake of overpaying to appease fans is not a formula for success.
Perfection.
 

RedOctober3829

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Seems to me they're simply valuing players objectively and making offers commensurate with that valuation, as any team would. Some they get right, some they don't, just like any team. Not sure why whether the player is homegrown or not has anything to do with it. They signed Story for $140M because that's what they valued him at AND HE SAID YES TO IT. They had a valuation for Bogaerts that was higher than that, but obviously not as high as the desperate Padres, so Xander is going to wear brown for the foreseeable future. That's the way the system works.

As a fan, I wish Bogaerts was staying in Boston. But if they didn't want to match/top that ridiculous contract, I'm really not going to hold it against them. And frankly, any talk about how they should have made bigger offers to extend him before he got to free agency are wishcasting at best. Bogaerts hired an assassin for an agent. The writing was on the wall that he wanted to go to market and cash in. And he did. Good for Xander.

As for Devers, there's nothing to do but continue to negotiate and make offers they feel are fair value. If he continues to say no and is intent on hitting the market, there's not a whole lot they can really do. Overpaying for the sake of overpaying to appease fans is not a formula for success.
Their objective valuation system appears to be broken. Xander gave the Red Sox every opportunity to give him a fair and reasonable offer and they fell woefully short at every point They lowballed him in the spring and it is squarely on the team that it even got to this point. The starting point for Xander should have been closer to their reported final offer. They had their chance to get him closer to their number then but the 4/90 offer was so far and away insulting that I don’t blame X for cutting negotiations off.

I’m just wondering what the plan is going forward. They just spent $105 million on a leadoff hitter when factoring in the posting fee and $16 million AAV on a closer so it’s not like they aren’t spending money at market value. Why won’t they extend themselves on their core guys?

All I know is that even after those two signings yesterday, they are not a better team than when they finished 2022.
 

Pat Spillane

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I’m just wondering what the plan is going forward. They just spent $105 million on a leadoff hitter when factoring in the posting fee and $16 million AAV on a closer so it’s not like they aren’t spending money at market value. Why won’t they extend themselves on their core guys?

All I know is that even after those two signings yesterday, they are not a better team than when they finished 2022.

Xander should have been done before this but I am glad they didnt match what he got. Think ourselves and the Padres lose with that contract. Only winners is Xander's wallet and Boras
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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X and Boras played his early extension perfectly. I don’t believe for a second he was open to signing an extension that took him past 30 without opt-outs.
 

8slim

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All I know is that even after those two signings yesterday, they are not a better team than when they finished 2022.
This is ultimately all that matters to me. And I agree, as of 12/8/2022, it's hard for me to see this team being demonstrably better than it was last season. there's still time to improve on that, of course.
 

TimScribble

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Comparing the spring market to today’s isn’t apples to apples, but agree with the overall point.
 

8slim

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JCizzle

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This is ultimately all that matters to me. And I agree, as of 12/8/2022, it's hard for me to see this team being demonstrably better than it was last season. there's still time to improve on that, of course.
This is the "prove it" year for Chaim too. He's had the opportunity to fully reshape the roster and had gobs of money to spend this offseason. No excuses next year. The team needs to be really competitive and I just don't see us at that point yet. I hope I'm wrong.
 

8slim

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This is the "prove it" year for Chaim too. He's had the opportunity to fully reshape the roster and had gobs of money to spend this offseason. No excuses next year. The team needs to be really competitive and I just don't see us at that point yet. I hope I'm wrong.
The excuse will be all the guys in the farm system that some folks will claim need 2-3 more years to matriculate to the majors. I don't buy that, but we're going to hear it for sure.
 

jezza1918

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This is the "prove it" year for Chaim too. He's had the opportunity to fully reshape the roster and had gobs of money to spend this offseason. No excuses next year. The team needs to be really competitive and I just don't see us at that point yet. I hope I'm wrong.
Isn't part of the "prove it" part dependent on what young talent does too, though? Because it's pretty clear he was brought into reshape the entire organization, not just the Red Sox roster. Like let's hypothetically say the major league team limps along to .500 ball. But Bello and Casas look terrific, Mayer puts up huge numbers and looks ready to contribute in 2024, Yorke has a boucneback season, etc etc...
I dont think he should be judged on that alone by any means, but if they have young talent contributing at the majors and a top 10 farm system at the trade deadline I'd personally be willing to let Bloom have one more offseason and see what happens in 2024. I should add that I completely understand those that aren't willing to put up with another year of non compete at the major league level, it's certainly a valid viewpoint.
 

8slim

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Isn't part of the "prove it" part dependent on what young talent does too, though? Because it's pretty clear he was brought into reshape the entire organization, not just the Red Sox roster. Like let's hypothetically say the major league team limps along to .500 ball. But Bello and Casas look terrific, Mayer puts up huge numbers and looks ready to contribute in 2024, Yorke has a boucneback season, etc etc...
I dont think he should be judged on that alone by any means, but if they have young talent contributing at the majors and a top 10 farm system at the trade deadline I'd personally be willing to let Bloom have one more offseason and see what happens in 2024. I should add that I completely understand those that aren't willing to put up with another year of non compete at the major league level, it's certainly a valid viewpoint.
I don’t see much evidence that Henry sees 2023 as make-or-break for Chaim. Maybe 2024 is when that kicks in.
 

RedOctober3829

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Maybe my memory is faulty, or I'm cherry picking situations, but it sure seems like Henry's negotiating strategy is to lead with a low ball offer. We've seen it several times before going back years. I don't understand how that leads to productive outcomes, but I'm not the billionaire.
It's easier to be a hard ass in negotiations when you've got replacements lined up to do the job at a cheaper rate. They did not have that when Betts left. In this situation, Trevor Story would not be a quality SS due to his arm troubles. Mayer is years away if he pans out.
 

pdub

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I wonder if we'll push for Correa? Younger than X and a better defender, though a bit inferior offensively (although they had very identical offensive seasons last year).
 

nvalvo

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So... I'm thinking about what the FO's options for next steps might be. This is not a post about what I think they will do, or even should do, it's a post about what they could do. I am assuming in this post that Devers is not interested in resigning pre-FA, and that the FA market for players in his tier has gone totally bonkers. That may or may not be true.

1) Deal Devers to the Mets for Brett Baty, a top-30ish league wide prospect 3B who got into 11 games in August, and infielder Mark Vientos. Baty is like NY's Casas. Vientos is an interesting multi-positional slugger who the internet wanted NYM to DH over Big Dan Vogelbach last season.

2) Flip Vientos and Matthew Lugo to San Diego for Kim Ha-Seong (AAV ~$7m).

3) Sign Kodai Senga to a 5/$100m deal.

4) Trade Tanner Houck and Verdugo for Tyler O'Neill (Arb2 — $7m?).

5) Sign Justin Turner to a 1/$15m deal.

6) Trade Hosmer to KC for RHRP Taylor Clarke

7) More speculatively: if you can get Oakland to bite on a huge haul of B+/A- prospects for Murphy, something like, Rafaela, Yorke, Duran, Coffey, Dalbec, Arroyo..., you'd of course do that. But I doubt that works, even if Oakland makes those kinds of deals sometimes, so I won't include it in what follows.

This leaves us with the following roster:

LF Yoshida L
DH Turner R
2B Story R
1B Casas L
RF O'Neill R
3B Baty L
SS Kim R
C McGuire L
CF Hernández R

Bench: OF Duran L, IF Arroyo R, C/IF/OF Wong R, IF/OF Valdez L

This leaves us a long, grinding, patience-over-power lineup, but it should be defensively elite, even if it is depending on top prospects Casas and Baty to seize their roles and bounceback seasons from O'Neill and Hernández.

Rotation: Senga R, Sale L, Pivetta R, Whitlock R, Bello L, with Paxton L starting on the 60-day IL with Crawford in the bullpen as a longman/swingman/spot starter type and Murphy and Winckowski in AAA. Crazy deep.

Bullpen: CL Jansen RH, SU Schreiber RH, SU Martin RH, SU Barnes RH, SU Walter LH, MR Clarke RH, MR Rodriguez LH, SW Crawford LH. SU Taylor LH begins on the 60-day IL. Mata and Ort and German and Kelly and Hernandez are in AAA. Crazy deep.

We're also ~$20m under the cap. Offer extensions to whichever players bite out of Bello and Casas and Baty.
 

AB in DC

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This is ultimately all that matters to me. And I agree, as of 12/8/2022, it's hard for me to see this team being demonstrably better than it was last season. there's still time to improve on that, of course.
I went into this offseason thinking they'd need to pick up 2 SPs, 3 RPs, 2 OF/DHs, and 1 SS, on top of the usual reclamation projects or other depth signings. They're about halfway there (3 RPs and one bat, and no, I don't trust Paxton's health to pencil him in as one of the SPs)

Next question for me is what to prioritize with the remaining money.
 

cannonball 1729

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What kind of salary can Elvis Andrus? 33 years old, 249 / 303 / 404, decent enough defensively- 3 win player. Seems like an ok bridge to Mayer. But replacing X’s bat with his hurts an already lacking lineup. They really need to find some power, I guess in RF/DH/C?
Before we get too excited about Elvis Andrus...his 2022 season was HUGE outlier. Last year, his OPS+ was 103, but in the four seasons before that, his OPS+es were 78, 78, 60, and 73. Andrus was indeed a 3-WAR player last year, but he's not exactly a shoe-in to replicate that production.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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Mark Feinsend thinks Mike Zunino may go to either Boston or Cleveland and that the Sox are pursuing Dansby Swanson.
https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-xander-bogaerts-deals-wrap-winter-meetings?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
Zunino would be a nice fit with McGuire.

I would be truly floored if they're happier with Swanson on a $200M+ deal than Correa for $300M+. Lot of bust potential in Swanson's deal, I think. If Correa's gone, I'd much rather roll with Arroyo at short and put that money toward Senga or Rodón.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Zunino would be a nice fit with McGuire.

I would be truly floored if they're happier with Swanson on a $200M+ deal than Correa for $300M+. Lot of bust potential in Swanson's deal, I think. If Correa's gone, I'd much rather roll with Arroyo at short and put that money toward Senga or Rodón.
Going $200M+ for Dansby Swanson would be awful. Like you, I'd much rather take the risk on a SP and go "cheap" at SS then get caught in a bidding war for a guy who's had several mediocre years and is almost 29.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Comparing the spring market to today’s isn’t apples to apples, but agree with the overall point.
Well, this is exactly it. Nobody really knew what the December 2022 free agent market would look like, back in March. OBVIOUSLY nobody had ANY idea that Bogaerts would garner an 11-year, $280 million deal. Nobody had any clue about that like three days ago, never mind nine months ago.

So that's kind of disingenuous of Olney there. Dec 2022 is a VASTLY different landscape than March 2022 was.
 

chawson

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Well, this is exactly it. Nobody really knew what the December 2022 free agent market would look like, back in March. OBVIOUSLY nobody had ANY idea that Bogaerts would garner an 11-year, $280 million deal. Nobody had any clue about that like three days ago, never mind nine months ago.

So that's kind of disingenuous of Olney there. Dec 2022 is a VASTLY different landscape than March 2022 was.
I think it's fair to say that nobody reasonably expected that Preller, the league's biggest chaos agent, would be willing to drop that kind of money on a shortstop with Tatis and Kim on the roster.

The way I read it, the Sox' last official offer was 6/$160M. They left it open with the understanding that they could "sweeten" their offer to match something in the $200M range, but didn't make any formal offers because they weren't going to go bid for bid. Once Bloom heard San Diego's offer, there was no point in countering.

No one expected Preller to swoop in with that kind of cash. Hell, it was even reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune less than 48 hours before Bogaerts signed that Preller was "no longer in the market for a shortstop and were always only really in the market for Turner," who is a sort of white whale for Preller.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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How about a trade for Amed Rosario? He just turned 27, entering his last year of arbitration, projected for about $9 million in salary.

Rosario hit 11 home runs, stole 20 bases, knocked 26 doubles and led the MLB with nine triples. Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement (which uses Defensive Runs Saved as the primary defensive component) has him at 4.1 WAR. FanGraphs’ version (which uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s OAA) has him at 2.3 WAR.

Cleveland has Andres Gimenez to take over at SS, along with a number of other infield prospects. What would it take to make the trade? Houck and a prospect?
 

chawson

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How about a trade for Amed Rosario? He just turned 27, entering his last year of arbitration, projected for about $9 million in salary.

Rosario hit 11 home runs, stole 20 bases, knocked 26 doubles and led the MLB with nine triples. Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement (which uses Defensive Runs Saved as the primary defensive component) has him at 4.1 WAR. FanGraphs’ version (which uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s OAA) has him at 2.3 WAR.

Cleveland has Andres Gimenez to take over at SS, along with a number of other infield prospects. What would it take to make the trade? Houck and a prospect?
Not a terrible idea but Rosario graded out as a terrible shortstop last year by OAA (-10, particularly bad to his left/up the middle), but decently by DRS (+6).

His average was solid, but he never walks and he swings at a ton of pitches out of the zone, third-highest in MLB behind Javier Baez and Nick Castellanos.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Mar 12, 2019
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How about a trade for Amed Rosario? He just turned 27, entering his last year of arbitration, projected for about $9 million in salary.

Rosario hit 11 home runs, stole 20 bases, knocked 26 doubles and led the MLB with nine triples. Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement (which uses Defensive Runs Saved as the primary defensive component) has him at 4.1 WAR. FanGraphs’ version (which uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s OAA) has him at 2.3 WAR.

Cleveland has Andres Gimenez to take over at SS, along with a number of other infield prospects. What would it take to make the trade? Houck and a prospect?
Rosario is underrated and would be a superb target and there have been reports the Guardians might move him. But their pen is very strong with Clase, Karinchak, Stephan and De Los Santos. They need OF help and Verdugo might be a better fit.