I wonder as QBs become more successful they become more cavalier. Hence trying to make bigger throws and therefore get more picks. Thinking Favre, Brees, etc. But the all times like Montana, Brady, Manning avoid this sort of over confidence. No idea how to look at that though. (maybe uptick in Int rates?)The Pitt games I have seen this season he has made some real poor decisions for ints.
Id rather Pittsburgh not make the playoffsIs this game important for the Pats?
haha. touche. A few Xmas drinks got me excitedThere's similar research regarding the "hot hand" in basketball - maybe start there?
I wasn't being sarcastic, my bad. I genuinely meant that that's similar sports psychology/stats research. Wasn't being snarky.haha. touche. A few Xmas drinks got me excited
Yep. If PGH wins, and then KC beats Denver, Miami is in the playoffs and has nothing to play for next week. Thus making it a lot easier for NE. If PGH and KC win, I'll bet that Gase sits Ajayi, who is their biggest weapon at this point.Is this game important for the Pats?
If QBs survive to continue their careers long enough, there is a marked and steady drop in INT rate after their first few years.I wonder as QBs become more successful they become more cavalier. Hence trying to make bigger throws and therefore get more picks. Thinking Favre, Brees, etc. But the all times like Montana, Brady, Manning avoid this sort of over confidence. No idea how to look at that though. (maybe uptick in Int rates?)
I thought he meant in game not over a career. But maybe he didn't.If QBs survive to continue their careers long enough, there is a marked and steady drop in INT rate after their first few years.
Caveats about survivorship bias are fair, but it's quite observable.
Id rather Pittsburgh not make the playoffs
Ok, so it's important, but debatable which way.Yep. If PGH wins, and then KC beats Denver, Miami is in the playoffs and has nothing to play for next week. Thus making it a lot easier for NE. If PGH and KC win, I'll bet that Gase sits Ajayi, who is their biggest weapon at this point.
Here's our rationalization:Id rather Pittsburgh not make the playoffs
Ahh. It's all good. I didn't take any offense. It's the holidays!I wasn't being sarcastic, my bad. I genuinely meant that that's similar sports psychology/stats research. Wasn't being snarky.
Any links or articles? I sort of assumed initially 'good' starting QBs had a decline (or they'd be gone) but at some point the 'gunslinger mentality' may take over and see an uptick later in career. Or maybe the INT numbers are lower but occur on throws that would not have been attempted earlier in careers. Eg instead of a safe dump off, they are more confident, and attempt to thread it between 2 defenders.If QBs survive to continue their careers long enough, there is a marked and steady drop in INT rate after their first few years.
Caveats about survivorship bias are fair, but it's quite observable.
I'd rather Baltimore not make the playoffsId rather Pittsburgh not make the playoffs
And any Ravens - Steelers game isn't representative it seems.Here's our rationalization:
Pittsburgh is #1 in weighted DVOA as of right now, and #3 in overall DVOA behind NE and DAL. They are a good team. Your brain thinking about times they choked away this game or that is cherry-picking.