Week 1 vs. Eagles--Pre Game Discussion and News

[RedOctober3829]

DeVante Parker is back at practice with the lone player missing is Riley Reiff. All recent practice squad acquisitions are present.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1698749047337615651?s=20

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1698748970061668399?s=20

 

[j44thor]

NE is a +3.5 home dog this week. Still feels too light to me, this game has a chance to get away from them. PHI pass rush is scary and we haven't really seen what Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith bring to it.

 

[BaseballJones]

In my family pick 'em pool this week (we all choose three games against the spread) I took Philly. I think they could crush the Pats this week. Of course I'm hoping for the Pats, duh, but I think they typically start slow and Philly's D-line has a chance to completely wreck this game for the NE offense. And I'm not sure the secondary is ready to handle what Philly has to offer.

Now I don't think that this week's game will be a reflection on the whole season, but yeah, I can see the Eagles taking NE to the woodshed on Sunday.

 

[rodderick]

I think the Patriots could put some points on the board in this game, in fact I'm predicting they'll start the season hot on offense before teams kind of figure out what they're trying to do and then production drops a bit as they'll start having to win more on talent and execution then scheme, but I do think Philly is a team they can throw on. Now, a lot of that will hinge on Mac and both how much they trust him and his ability to make quick reads and get the ball out to beat the pass rush, but I'm not really anticipating their DL to wreck the game (which could happen, the talent there is tremendous). On the other side of the ball, though, I just think they have too much. The Pats have generally struggled against athletic QBs, but if they plain contain on Hurts, he has enough ability inside the pocket and the weapons to potentially carve them up. I'm still concerned about the deep part of the field and expect the Eagles to test their solutions at that spot early.

We'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats win a 27-20 type of the game to get the season rolling here. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 38-17 either. But I'm not in "well, they really can't compete with Philly on talent, it's fine if they lose" mode. I think there's a path.

 

[Justthetippett]

I think they'll be competitive, as long as their lines don't get dominated. Early games are usually a bit weird, Hurts has not played, it's not like he's a ten year vet, etc. Would be nice to see them come out and establish a few things from the jump, like a competent run game and some play action. Either way, it's silly season in terms of overreactions, so Monday will be something.

 

[Saints Rest]

I saw an interesting stat today (can’t recall where now — sorry) that said that QBs who have sat out the entire preseason are 3-8 recently.
Hurts sat out the entire preseason this year.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I saw an interesting stat today (can’t recall where now — sorry) that said that QBs who have sat out the entire preseason are 3-8 recently.
Hurts sat out the entire preseason this year.

Reiss had it yesterday:

6. Will it Hurts?

Few give the Patriots a chance in the season opener against the defending NFC champion Eagles, but for those looking for an area the team might have an edge, consider this: Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts was one of eight starting quarterbacks not to play in the preseason, and of the 11 Week 1 starting quarterbacks in 2022 who didn’t play in the preseason, their teams had a combined record of 3-8 in last season's opening games, per ESPN Stats & Information research.

 

[Garshaparra]

I expect a sobering result, 10-0 PHI at the half, 27-6 final score. The Pats o-line will flounder. Mac will sulk. The Pats D will initially do well, force a turnover or two, before tiring to let in some cheap stuff in the 2nd half. PHI is absolutely superior, and the Pats have a lot of learning to do. The season is by no means lost, but it will hurt, and they'll need to learn from this loss.

 

[Saints Rest]

Reiss had it yesterday:

Thanks

 

[j-man]

philly is the best team by talent in the nfl their only weakness might be db's

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I think Philly wins by two touchdowns, EASY. Patriots OL – even with everyone back – are, IMO, unlikely to have much cohesion, and that Philly front line is FIERCE. Were I a betting man – and that line might make me one – I would POUND Philly to cover. I think it's more likely to be a three touchdown loss. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think Philly wins by two touchdowns, EASY. Patriots OL – even with everyone back – are, IMO, unlikely to have much cohesion, and that Philly front line is FIERCE. Were I a betting man – and that line might make me one – I would POUND Philly to cover. I think it's more likely to be a three touchdown loss. Hope I'm wrong.

Pats will need some TO luck in their favor. Hope has to be that Hurts is rusty and BB gets the D ready to roll. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from the offense but I fully expect it to be ugly at times. If they can’t get the run game working early, it’ll be a huge problem. Keep Eagles’ offense off the field.

 

[Devizier]

Delete

 

[rodderick]

Pats will need some TO luck in their favor. Hope has to be that Hurts is rusty and BB gets the D ready to roll. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from the offense but I fully expect it to be ugly at times. If they can’t get the run game working early, it’ll be a huge problem. Keep Eagles’ offense off the field.

I think playing ball control is how the Pats make sure they lose this game. The Eagles' offense is explosive, they can score quickly and don't need a ton of drives to do it. They ranked 2nd in points per play last year just behind KC. The Pats need points and to me they'll have to throw their way to win, I don't think there's a path to beating the Eagles 17-13.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I’m seeing a young Eagles team that just went to the Super Bowl with a young head coach who may not understand what goes into planning and strategy after a shortened off-season. I mean drafting Georgia players hasn’t exactly hurt them, but there’s more to it than that. A QB who didn’t play a snap in pre-season going up against what could be one of the best defenses in the league. I legitimately think the Pats D is going to make the Eagles offense look rusty and slow. Hell of a debut for Gonzalez having to cover AJ Brown though. If the Pats can actually put up TDs and not sputter out in the red zone like last year, this could be an easy win.

 

[rodderick]

Does the whole preseason stuff matter when Mac took like 10 snaps? Are those the difference especially when Philly had an extra week of joint practice reps?

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

I expect a sobering result, 10-0 PHI at the half, 27-6 final score. The Pats o-line will flounder.

That will give us all a haddock!

 

[RedOctober3829]

Weather now says 80 with 50/50 chance of rain and t storms.

 

[Van Everyman]

I can 100% see the Patriots lay a complete egg in this game, both offensively and defensively, and people start calling for Belichick’s head, Mac to be cut, the OL to be a disaster, the defense to be a sieve, and Kraft to be too old for his job … and for this team to still go on to have a very good season.

Losing to a really good team in week one in 2023 tells us almost nothing. In fact, I could imagine that a big loss, a resounding one, might actually galvanize a Belichick-coached team in a way that playing well against a middling one never could.

 

[SMU_Sox]

So it's going to be their 11 vs our big nickel. I wonder if they play dime with Mapu...

For dime you would go Dugger, Mapu, Mills, and Phillips or Peppers, Gonzo, Jon Jones probably on Slim Reaper, with Bentley and probably a heavy group up front. Maybe like Judon, Godchaux, Barmore or Guy, and then Wise or White.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think the calculus is Tavai can take on OL better as a run defending ILB but Mapu is plenty physical and has more speed to take on Hurts. If they get gashed vs 11 in big dime then they likely go back to big nickel. If the front can neutralize the OL you would think going big dime is the ideal strategy because it gives you better options to take on Hurts as a runner and scrambler. It's a rough matchup.

On the offensive side I would expect a lot of quick game, more RPOs, and selectively taking shots. Aside from the pass rush and assuming their offense is light years ahead of where it was with Patricia (middle of the road vs bottom sixth of the league) it's not that bad of a matchup. In particular if they can get Rham to the second level he is going to crush their linebackers and safeties. And if they do get the ball out quickly the back part of the Eagles defense isn't as good as their front. Plus their corners are old AF and could easily start to see their performances drop.

Given their defenses issues with RPOs and mobile QBs I can get why people are worried. I am too. But I can also see why the spread isn't as wide as we'd think.

 

[j44thor]

So it's going to be their 11 vs our big nickel. I wonder if they play dime with Mapu...

For dime you would go Dugger, Mapu, Mills, and Phillips or Peppers, Gonzo, Jon Jones probably on Slim Reaper, with Bentley and probably a heavy group up front. Maybe like Judon, Godchaux, Barmore or Guy, and then Wise or White.

If they put JJ on Smith would you bracket AJ and take your chances with LB/S covering Goedert? I don't think you can ask Gonzo to cover AJ as AJ is too physical for him at this point in his career, if anything I'd rather put Gonzo on Smith and have Jon Jones and S bracket AJ.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think playing ball control is how the Pats make sure they lose this game. The Eagles' offense is explosive, they can score quickly and don't need a ton of drives to do it. They ranked 2nd in points per play last year just behind KC. The Pats need points and to me they'll have to throw their way to win, I don't think there's a path to beating the Eagles 17-13.

Disagree. If the defense shows up and forces a key turnover or two, that’s how you win. This Pats team won’t be able to match this offense in a high scoring affair.

 

[astrozombie]

I expect a sobering result, 10-0 PHI at the half, 27-6 final score. The Pats o-line will flounder. Mac will sulk. The Pats D will initially do well, force a turnover or two, before tiring to let in some cheap stuff in the 2nd half. PHI is absolutely superior, and the Pats have a lot of learning to do. The season is by no means lost, but it will hurt, and they'll need to learn from this loss.

This exactly.

 

[Jungleland]

Pats winning in a blowout is really the only outcome I can't see as remotely possible and I don't think a win is completely off the table. I'm going to allow myself some optimism here in this week leading up to the season: I think people are sleeping on the roster they have at WR, RB, and TE, which (with the benefit of N'Keal hindsight) is pretty easily the highest upside group they've had since 2018 even with Thornton on IR. Combine that with BOB and I think the offense will be competent enough to give them a chance in every game. Week 1 boils down to this for me: can the line give Mac any time? Can the corners cover Smith and Brown with any consistency? If yes and yes, I think it will be a more competitive game than people expect.

That said, I won't be shocked if we get stomped. Philly is a much better team on paper and a Hurts offense feels like the exact kind of game the NE defense was exposed by late the last 2 seasons. 0-1 is the likely outcome, but it's 5 days to the season starting - might as well be hopeful for at least this week.

 

[dirtynine]

I expect a game similar to the last time Brady was in the house, a somewhat gritty game where the Pats are in it until some individual talent on the Eagles side puts it away in the 4th. It will be just inspiring enough to prevent Tobin jumpers and there will be excitement throughout - but they will lose.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Pats winning in a blowout is really the only outcome I can't see as remotely possible and I don't think a win is completely off the table. I'm going to allow myself some optimism here in this week leading up to the season: I think people are sleeping on the roster they have at WR, RB, and TE, which (with the benefit of N'Keal hindsight) is pretty easily the highest upside group they've had since 2018 even with Thornton on IR. Combine that with BOB and I think the offense will be competent enough to give them a chance in every game. Week 1 boils down to this for me: can the line give Mac any time? Can the corners cover Smith and Brown with any consistency? If yes and yes, I think it will be a more competitive game than people expect.

That said, I won't be shocked if we get stomped. Philly is a much better team on paper and a Hurts offense feels like the exact kind of game the NE defense was exposed by late the last 2 seasons. 0-1 is the likely outcome, but it's 5 days to the season starting - might as well be hopeful for at least this week.

Just curious why you think people are sleeping on skill position guys or, more specifically, who is getting overlooked. We pretty much know what Rham, Parker, Bourne, Henry are at this point. Zeke is likely to be more or less cooked with maybe some short yardage utility. That basically leaves the new guys in JuJu (is he going to be better than Jakobi), Gesicki (maybe modest improvement over Jonnu?) and the rookie WRs? Where is the unlocked potential? The rookie WRs? The better OC? Combination of both? Mac leveling up?

I feel more or less the same about these groups, at least until I say something meaningful from TT, Boutte, or Douglas.

 

[cshea]

It's probably going to take mid-to-upper 20's to win. The Eagles failed to score less than 24 points 3 times last year, one being a Minshew start. The Pats scored more than 24 points in only 8 games last year, 5 of which included defensive scores that got them there. The offense on their own only scored 24 or more on their own 3 times (purely points not factoring in any turnovers that put them in favorable field position).

Ball control is great but it puts a burden on the defense to hold down the 3rd ranked offense from last year and and in addition contribute points/field position is a tough ask. On the offensive side, they basically need to execute perfectly and stack together 10-12 play drives, convert 3rd downs, convert red zone possessions into touchdowns. They were terrible in those areas last year. One turnover, failed red zone opportunity or ill timed penalty could sink them.

I dunno. They've leaned into ball control and defense for 3 years now and it hasn't really worked. When was the last time they beat a quality team? The MNF game in Buffalo with the wacky weather conditions? The 9-8 Chargers in 2021?

I'd rather go down opening it up a bit. I don't think you can really win in the NFL on defense, the offense needs to be able to put points on the board on their own.

 

[rodderick]

It's probably going to take mid-to-upper 20's to win. The Eagles failed to score less than 24 points 3 times last year, one being a Minshew start. The Pats scored more than 24 points in only 8 games last year, 5 of which included defensive scores that got them there. The offense on their own only scored 24 or more on their own 3 times (purely points not factoring in any turnovers that put them in favorable field position).

Ball control is great but it puts a burden on the defense to hold down the 3rd ranked offense from last year and and in addition contribute points/field position is a tough ask. On the offensive side, they basically need to execute perfectly and stack together 10-12 play drives, convert 3rd downs, convert red zone possessions into touchdowns. They were terrible in those areas last year. One turnover, failed red zone opportunity or ill timed penalty could sink them.

I dunno. They've leaned into ball control and defense for 3 years now and it hasn't really worked. When was the last time they beat a quality team? The MNF game in Buffalo with the wacky weather conditions? The 9-8 Chargers in 2021?

I'd rather go down opening it up a bit. I don't think you can really win in the NFL on defense, the offense needs to be able to put points on the board on their own.

Exactly. People are still attached to the blueprint to beating, say, Peyton Manning in the early 2000's. These days you beat good offenses by outscoring them. The alternative is taking 13 plays and 7 minutes off the clock to kick a 34 yard FG only for them to answer with a TD. Then what? Of course you have to get some turnovers and key stops, that's a given no matter the style of game you want to play, I just think running the ball and chewing clock gives them no chance. The Eagles' margin for error on offense is pretty substantial, including Hurts' ability to convert short 4th downs. They don't need many opportunities to put points on the board.

 

[Shelterdog]

Jesus let's stop worrying about backup offensive lineman and star being fans.

Pats 38, Iggles 2 -- but on a cool intentional safety by the Pats. Jones throws so many yards people start wondering if he's Prime Sanders' kid. Mapu hits Brown so hard AJ's girlfriend dies.DeMario Douglas proves to be the most effective little guy running around since Super Mario. Barmore is constantly harassing Hurt. The Eagles DBs are just old and shitty. Someone realizes that a lot of the Eagles stars are actually pretty freaking old and don't really play to their reputation--at least not in week 1 after cruising all summer.

Screw this shity fourth rate city. Yeah, I'll give them the flag, the constitution, the declaration of independence, the thomas easkins paintings and the the comic masterpiece trading places, but other than that, what has philly done for us? Ok the cheesesteaks...

EDIT: Cheesesteaks for cheesestakes. Which are what, something you use to kill a lactose intolerant vampire?

 

[Jungleland]

Just curious why you think people are sleeping on skill position guys or, more specifically, who is getting overlooked. We pretty much know what Rham, Parker, Bourne, Henry are at this point. Zeke is likely to be more or less cooked with maybe some short yardage utility. That basically leaves the new guys in JuJu (is he going to be better than Jakobi), Gesicki (maybe modest improvement over Jonnu?) and the rookie WRs? Where is the unlocked potential? The rookie WRs? The better OC? Combination of both? Mac leveling up?

I feel more or less the same about these groups, at least until I say something meaningful from TT, Boutte, or Douglas.

A fair question, but I'd go with the following:

-Juju > Jakobi (I think people really hold Juju's disappointing first post-AB season against him too much)
-Admittedly I was high on Jonnu coming in, but if healthy enough to be the Miami version, I can't see Gesicki not being a significant upgrade
-Bourne out of the dog house
-Perhaps irrational but legitimate excitement about the two rookies

Short answer is BOB and the rookies. Long answer is I look at how they performed on offense in 2021 and unless you chalk it all up to the league not having figured Mac out yet, I think the roster is better now with upgrades at at least 2 spots, a potential greater focus on Bourne who I view as their best receiver, addition by subtraction with Agholor gone, and two 6th round rookies who have proven at least a little by making the team at all. I view Harris to Zeke as a downgrade, but I'm not sure by how much and am open to the possibility Zeke is an improvement deep in the red zone.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Great Monty Python reference, @Shelterdog .

If they put JJ on Smith would you bracket AJ and take your chances with LB/S covering Goedert? I don't think you can ask Gonzo to cover AJ as AJ is too physical for him at this point in his career, if anything I'd rather put Gonzo on Smith and have Jon Jones and S bracket AJ.

I like Gonzo on AJB and Jones on Smith because physical profile wise that is the best matchup. Jones on AJB is rough. I guess you could double him with Jones. I wouldn't hate Gonzo on Smith.

I would put any of the safeties on Goedert. All of them can matchup well enough there.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I took Pats +4. I think they hang in there and probably lose, but by a FG or less. Their defense is legit and should be a top 5 D this year.

 

[Carmine Hose]

I saw a stat about week 1 against the spread for the prior Super Bowl losing team. Over the last 22 seasons, they have gone 4-18 ATS. Line is 3.5/4.

 

[chilidawg]

Comes down to what the O line can do against the Eagles front. If we can run the ball decently and set up play action we'll be competitive. Win the turnovers on top of that and we can win.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I saw a stat about week 1 against the spread for the prior Super Bowl losing team. Over the last 22 seasons, they have gone 4-18 ATS. Line is 3.5/4.

Not that it matters but it is fun to note 2 of those 4 are the Pats. So it's 2-17 excluding the Pats (Brady ACL game Pats failed to beat the spread).

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Does the whole preseason stuff matter when Mac took like 10 snaps? Are those the difference especially when Philly had an extra week of joint practice reps?

Honestly, I think so. There’s been such a de-emphasis on playing the pre-season and getting back up to game speed. I think we’re going to see the beginning of the season become more erratic as players participate less. There’s just not enough time for the players/plays to get in sync.

 

[Nator]

There are a couple of areas that will be improved not just for week 1, but for the entire season for the Patriots.

1. I expect that there will be fewer penalties all around the team, particularly from the O-line.

2.The Overall confidence of the offense will energize that side of the ball. They won't feel like they are fighting the opposing defense and the limits of their own game-plan.

3. The Special teams will not play like ass this season. That they will have a much better punting unit seems like a given, and will give opponents longer drives to complete.

Will those things make enough of a difference to overcome what looks like a major talent difference? Maybe not. But I think they'll be in this one, and I think they'll have a chance to win it. If they keep it close enough so that they can continue to run the ball in the later stages of the 2nd half, that Eagles pass rush will be less effective.

 

[cshea]

Honestly, I think so. There’s been such a de-emphasis on playing the pre-season and getting back up to game speed. I think we’re going to see the beginning of the season become more erratic as players participate less. There’s just not enough time for the players/plays to get in sync.

Right but doesn't that cut both ways? Mac played 17 snaps against Green Bay and attempted 9 passes. Is that work really going to give Mac some sort of meaningful advantage here? If anything I think the joint practices are the most valuable time in camp, and Hurts got more work in joint practices than Mac did.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

But I can also see why the spread isn't as wide as we'd think.

The spread isn't wide because:

- The Eagles have two new coordinators. No one knows how that is going to play out, nor should they. Sean Desai has about a 3 week honeymoon period (maybe) before folks start getting out pitchforks.
- The Eagles don't have a true, experienced-in-the-scheme RB1 the way they did last season. Now, you could say, "Hey RBYB, RB1 isn't a huge deal in the Eagles offense" and I would say "well, you don't understand how their blocking schemes and blitz counter schemes work." Right now the Eagles are hoping that they get good, smart play from their RB bouillabaisse, but no one is certain.
- The Eagles D-Line is in transition. Last season they got great production from Graham, and very good production from Cox, but this season they need Davis and Carter to step up in those roles. Reddick will play great, and hopefully Nolan Smith plays well, but we will see. There is more uncertainty here than in the secondary.
- Their LBs are pretty "league average......probably"
- People believe Zeke Elliott can make problems go away for the Patriot Offense. Right now the Patriot receiving corps and O-line are terrible. Like......beyond terrible. Their QB is bad with a ceiling of mediocre. But Zeke Elliott - with good spelling by Rhamondre - might still have a few seasons of amazing in him. Or he may not see the field as Rhamondre keeps the RB1 slot on lock. We'll see.
- It's week 1. Every team plays weird in week 1.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

It's probably going to take mid-to-upper 20's to win. The Eagles failed to score less than 24 points 3 times last year, one being a Minshew start. The Pats scored more than 24 points in only 8 games last year, 5 of which included defensive scores that got them there. The offense on their own only scored 24 or more on their own 3 times (purely points not factoring in any turnovers that put them in favorable field position).

Ball control is great but it puts a burden on the defense to hold down the 3rd ranked offense from last year and and in addition contribute points/field position is a tough ask. On the offensive side, they basically need to execute perfectly and stack together 10-12 play drives, convert 3rd downs, convert red zone possessions into touchdowns. They were terrible in those areas last year. One turnover, failed red zone opportunity or ill timed penalty could sink them.

I dunno. They've leaned into ball control and defense for 3 years now and it hasn't really worked. When was the last time they beat a quality team? The MNF game in Buffalo with the wacky weather conditions? The 9-8 Chargers in 2021?

I'd rather go down opening it up a bit. I don't think you can really win in the NFL on defense, the offense needs to be able to put points on the board on their own.

This guy gets it.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Jesus let's stop worrying about backup offensive lineman and star being fans.

Pats 38, Iggles 2 -- but on a cool intentional safety by the Pats. Jones throws so many yards people start wondering if he's Prime Sanders' kid. Mapu hits Brown so hard AJ's girlfriend dies.DeMario Douglas proves to be the most effective little guy running around since Super Mario. Barmore is constantly harassing Hurt. The Eagles DBs are just old and shitty. Someone realizes that a lot of the Eagles stars are actually pretty freaking old and don't really play to their reputation--at least not in week 1 after cruising all summer.

Screw this shity fourth rate city. Yeah, I'll give them the flag, the constitution, the declaration of independence, the thomas easkins paintings and the the comic masterpiece trading places, but other than that, what has philly done for us? Ok the cheesesteaks...

EDIT: Cheesesteaks for cheesestakes. Which are what, something you use to kill a lactose intolerant vampire?

I feel like Christopher Walken when Dennis Hopper goes into the "Sicilians" speech in True Romance.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I tend to like the Pats defense early in the season. It's simple, and with the shortened preseason, I feel like it comes together a lot faster than an NFL offense. The Eagles are rolling back a lot of the same players, so it may not matter, but I could see the Pats holding them into the mid 20's and having a 1 possession game on our hand in the 4th quarter.

 

[Shelterdog]

I feel like Christopher Walken when Dennis Hopper goes into the "Sicilians" speech in True Romance.

I mean, I gave Philly credit for Thomas Eakins, that's a little more generous than Hopper was.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

I mean, I gave Philly credit for Thomas Eakins, that's a little more generous than Hopper was.

How ironic that you should give credit for a REALIST* when your prediction is truly abstract.**





*Per Wikipedia.
**See what I did there? That’s some high brow shit right there.

 

[Shelterdog]

How ironic that you should give credit for a REALIST* when your prediction is truly abstract.**





*Per Wikipedia.
**See what I did there? That’s some high brow shit right there.

Eakins: the guy who made a reputation as an artist out of row row row your boat.

I wouldn't say my prediction is necessarily abstract, it's just rooted in emotions and fun and not logic or analysis.

 

[Toe Nash]

Exactly. People are still attached to the blueprint to beating, say, Peyton Manning in the early 2000's. These days you beat good offenses by outscoring them. The alternative is taking 13 plays and 7 minutes off the clock to kick a 34 yard FG only for them to answer with a TD. Then what? Of course you have to get some turnovers and key stops, that's a given no matter the style of game you want to play, I just think running the ball and chewing clock gives them no chance. The Eagles' margin for error on offense is pretty substantial, including Hurts' ability to convert short 4th downs. They don't need many opportunities to put points on the board.

Yeah, it feels like the best outcome with a ball control offense in today's game is Tennessee of the past few years, and we've seen them not really be competitive in the last couple playoffs because they can't get a lead, they can't do anything to come back and the opposing defense just kinda laughs at Henry because who cares if they give up 5 yards per carry down the field if they're down two scores and it takes 9 minutes. And Henry was under 3 YPC the last couple playoff exits anyway.

Also Belichick is too wimpy / loves his special teams too much anyway to run ball control in an optimal way (going for it on 4th and short a lot).

If Mac can move the ball in the air, especially if they're down on the scoreboard, they can win a few games and maybe surprise some people. They have the receivers and RBs IMO to be respectable, it's really the line and QB that are (huge) questions. They're just not going to grind out more than a few games where they get defensive TDs; it's a good defense but not game-wrecking.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

I wouldn't say my prediction is necessarily abstract, it's just rooted in emotions and fun and not logic or analysis.

You are ruining the joke.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I honestly wondered how that all went down. Can you imagine being the HC (or QB coach, or O-Coordinator, or really anyone who might have to be in a room with Dak Prescott that day?) and coming in to that news ice cold the morning it happened?

Just gotta come into work with that Jason Garrett flatliner energy.