Trevor Story had surgery on his right UCL and is expected to miss time

Sprowl

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An injury shouldnt make a contract bad. Injuries happen and arent a great metric of the value of the contract.

It would be a bad contract if the Red Sox knew about his elbow fragility before signing him and still signed him without any injury protection.
Judging by Olney's comments, lots of teams knew about his elbow fragility, and the only injury protection I know about is Arroyo.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is “not ruling out a return in 2023” just awkward phrasing, lowering of expectations, or something else? It doesn’t sound like a super optimistic take on Story’s ability to contribute this season.
 

AlNipper49

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New members / Recent joiners: Friendly tip - these threads can get long so please consider if your post is adding value before hitting the post button. Atleast half of my posts that I start posting I end up not posting. It doesn't take long to look up supporting points, or to craft a compelling opinion on something.
 

torpedero

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An injury shouldnt make a contract bad. Injuries happen and arent a great metric of the value of the contract.

It would be a bad contract if the Red Sox knew about his elbow fragility before signing him and still signed him without any injury protection.
so even the much criticized contract to Chris Sale wasn't a bad contract, right?
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Apologies if this was answered up thread but is the four to six months recovery meant to mean major league ready, or baseball activity ready? He's sure to need some time in the minors to get his timing back, etc. We may be looking at an early August return, at best.

PS Sign me up also for team sign Jose Iglesias.
 
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mauf

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Trevor Story hasn’t posted as much as 3 WAR since 2019. Perhaps that understates his value a bit, but it’s not like this injury takes what was a promising season and dashes it on the rocks. It’s more like, this takes a team that already had several question marks and adds a good-sized hole to it.
 

LogansDad

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so even the much criticized contract to Chris Sale wasn't a bad contract, right?
Excellent strawman. 9/10, needs better capitalization, though.

They are not the same thing. For one, Trevor Story, even in playing only 94 games, put up 2.5 bWAR (12th among 2B with over 80 games played) and 2.3 fWAR (good for 15th among 2B with at least 250 plate appearances. He provides value with his bat (though I wish he wouldn't strike out so much), and he provides excellent value defensively at second base. There is still 3 years left after this season on his contract, and he is currently only 30. It may end up being a bad contract, but it's too early to tell, and there is literally zero reason to believe he won't come back and be a very valuable player for this team in 2024, if not the second half of 2023.

There were already warning signs about Sale's shoulder in 2018. His overall season looks good but he missed time in August with shoulder issues, didn't look nearly as good coming back from the injury in September (though he was still pretty good) and then looked very, very mortal in the playoffs. Oh, and he had another year left on his previous contract when he signed the extension, so they didn't even need to sign it when they did. Of course, 2019 was another injury plagued season, and he's given the team all of 47 innings since the extension actually kicked in, so I can see where you would equate the two,
 

lexrageorge

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Is “not ruling out a return in 2023” just awkward phrasing, lowering of expectations, or something else? It doesn’t sound like a super optimistic take on Story’s ability to contribute this season.
The phrasing is just weird, and it's impossible to glean the full context from that quote alone. However, if we assume the longer timeline of 6 months for recovery, then that puts Story's return into the post-ASB territory. Which is late enough that any sort of setback in rehab, not uncommon with elbow injuries, could push his return into September :(. OTOH, maybe he heals fast and is back in May/June. I guess there's still a wide range of outcomes, in which case it makes sense to lower expectations.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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A devoted band of Bloom loyalists have repeatedly described the team's depth as a strength, and written of their expectations that oft-injured players will somehow be immune from injury in 2023. This injury underscores how thin we are, and offers vivid evidence of the dangers of assuming healthy prognoses in the absence of evidence. I would worry that, a year from now, this injury will be trotted out by Bloom's most devoted fans as reason to grant him a mulligan for 2023; I do, however, have enough faith in this ownership group that another last-place finish will lead to Bloom's dismissal.
A) Story is not "oft-injured". He played at least 142 games in every season prior to '22. The majority of the time he missed in '22 was being hit by a pitch. That's not a predictable injury.
B) Are you suggesting that they should have had a full-time player as a backup plan for Story?
Blaming Bloom for this injury is a complete straw man argument.
 

joe dokes

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So the Red Sox bet $140 million on Story's elbow holding up and it didn't, and it ended up giving out because instead of paying Bogaerts, they decided that it was smarter to have Story be the backup plan despite the fact that his elbow was so compromised that he needed surgery after all of a month of working out as a shortstop. Perfect.
Wow. You nailed it!
 

joe dokes

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Seems like a relevant time to bring this up, no? It's not like the elbow thing is something new and mean old Buster taking potshots at the trainwreck that is the 2022-23 Boston Red Sox isn't a reason to just dismiss his reporting out of hand.
Why did he wait until now? Wouldnt that be something to report when no one except the Sox *signed* Story?
 

Sprowl

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A) Story is not "oft-injured". He played at least 142 games in every season prior to '22. The majority of the time he missed in '22 was being hit by a pitch. That's not a predictable injury.
B) Are you suggesting that they should have had a full-time player as a backup plan for Story?
Blaming Bloom for this injury is a complete straw man argument.
I disagree. Story had a serious elbow injury that left him amongst the availables in the 2021 offseason, giving Bloom the chance to make a high-risk, high-reward gamble at a relatively modest USD 140 million. Olney's self-congratulatory tweet confirms the reduced market for Story. Unfortunately (for Red Sox fans), Bloom took the risk and we are left holding the grenade.

I don't blame Bloom for taking the gamble, but let's not pretend that it wasn't a gamble, and it hasn't now blown up in our faces.

Christian Arroyo, 2B 2023. It was meant to be.
 

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I disagree. Story had a serious elbow injury that left him amongst the availables in the 2021 offseason, giving Bloom the chance to make a high-risk, high-reward gamble at a relatively modest USD 140 million. Olney's self-congratulatory tweet confirms the reduced market for Story. Unfortunately (for Red Sox fans), Bloom took the risk and we are left holding the grenade.

I don't blame Bloom for taking the gamble, but let's not pretend that it wasn't a gamble, and it hasn't now blown up in our faces.

Christian Arroyo, 2B 2023. It was meant to be.
That gamble could cost the team half a season of Story, after which he’ll be able to play shortstop again. I don’t see that as a gamble blowing up in anyone’s face.
 

cornwalls@6

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Even assuming they had prior concerns about this year before he reported the discomfort in late December, I don't think anything regarding Story's health would've likely changed their approach with Bogarts. They wouldn't have, and shouldn't have, IMO, committed to the kind of overpay San Diego offered. Not with Mayer in the pipeline. Posts suggesting a correlation between the two events are missing the mark. At some point in his tenure here, Story was going back to 2B again. This probably hastens it. Hence, it would be a good idea to sign a decent veteran stop gap until Mayer is ready(hopefully, 2024).
 
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8slim

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That lineup looks pretty bad, but the bigger problem is what happens if a few key guys there get hurt? If Kike and Arroyo are hurt, hardly a far fetched scenario, they are replaced by Duran and Valdez / Hamilton and you are looking at a really horrendous group, potentially. Ugh.
I think the question is more what do we do WHEN some of those guys get hurt. It may not be Kike and Arroyo, but it could be Verdugo and McGuire. But rest assured, someone(s) will get hurt because this is baseball and guys get hurt every year.

The proposed lineup looks delicate as tissue paper to me, in terms of needing career norm performance form everyone just to be average.

Anything could happen and I’ll force myself to be optimistic by opening day, but I don’t think the 2013 comparison holds.We had a lineup of guys who had far more past success in 2013 than we do right now.
 

johnlos

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Yorke at 2B and Rafaela at SS? and Arroyo backing up both?

Or Yorke at 2B and Arroyo at SS?

or Arroyo at 2B and Rafaela at SS?

Probably can't trade Rafaela now for non-Ace pitching. For MIF sure.

Or Enrique in MIF somewhere and Duran (or Rafaela) in CF?


Price for Andrus and whatever else there is on the market just went up.
Yorke was below replacement-level at high-A last year. He's years away from MLB with a reasonable chance at never (still 20 at least). Emmanuel Valdez was a bit above replacement-level at AAA last year so he's much more likely.

Rafaela was 119 OPS+ in half a season of AA at 21. He has a shot if he looks good in the spring but I wouldn't count on it.

More likely we sign one stopgap IF and either Arroyo starts or Kiké goes to 2nd so we can platoon Duran/Refsnyder.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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(Mods: I apologize and will take whatever suspension/ban you feel I deserve)

I doubt that I am one of the people who has belittled you, as it isn't really my style, but fuck it, I'm tired. "Self-reflection"? Seriously? GTFOH with that. I've been here almost twenty years, and it has always been a place where we could come and talk baseball intelligently, and it has always been a place that makes following my (and most of our) favorite team more fun.

This team went 78-84 last year. That's 3 wins from a .500 season, with about as bad a run in July and August as they could have possibly had (and about as good a run in May as they could have as well). The other teams in their division were better, and might be this year as well, but tell me, oh so mighty forecaster, what is the "most dire forecast" for this team? 76-86? There are 29 other teams in the league who are all trying to put together a decent team, and it isn't like Bloom can just snap his fingers and make it happen. Sorry that he didn't sign Bogaerts to a ridiculous contract. I love the guy and hate to see him go, I own three sports jerseys... two are Patrice Bergeron and the other is Bogaerts. But SD is going to rue that contract sooner than later.

Every damn thread in this place turns into irrational discussion about Bloom needing to be fired for whatever meaningless thing happened that day, or JWH isn't willing to build a championship team. Literally every single thread. "Anti-Bloomers" were complaining about it in the Devers extension thread, for crying out loud. It's absolutely exhausting. This place has turned into a cesspool of whining and complaining and it has turned talking about baseball into the opposite of fun for many of us who love the game whether the Sox are winning or losing.

"Signed players more befitting a team with the Sox's payroll"? They are within about $12M of the luxury tax threshold (depending on what site you use), with a clear goal of being able to start building a team from within. $12M from losing draft slots and available international pool money if they decide to QO a player or sign a player who received a QO next season. Every year they go over the threshold coasts them that, and, yes, more money. I agree with people, even before today, that they were a Middle Infielder short on this team, but they aren't in a position to sign somebody like Correa right now, and they have a lot more reasons than being cheap. You can't both build a team with depth AND sign every big free agent on the market, unless you have a crazy owner like Cohen. And yet people whine in every god damned thread about them not spending money. They literally just gave $320M to a guy who is going to be their cornerstone for a decade.

This website is dying a slow death because a small but very vocal group of people get angry about literally everything the team does, and need to scream from the mountaintops, the rooftops and in the shower about how much better anyone would do running the team than current ownership.

I'm going to go be a Royals fan. At least trying to cheer for their (actual) shitty team is fun.
Need a like button here.
 

chawson

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What's the deal with Jonathan Villar? Of his last four, he's put up one excellent season (3.9 fWAR in 2019), one very good one (2.5 fWAR in 2021) and two atrocious ones (last year and 2020, if that counts). He's not especially old at 32.

Does he have character issues or something? He's been in 10 organizations, which is kind of a lot for an average-ish defensive shortstop with (once-)blazing speed and a solid bat. He has a .312 career wOBA, which is higher than Elvis Andrus' (.307) and extremely close to Dansby Swanson's (.315 career wOBA).

There's a ton of clamor for Andrus and Iglesias, and after today's news I'd be happy to get either of them too. But are we sure that Andrus, a Boras guy, is that much better than a one-year pact with Villar? Here are their combined lines since 2019:

Player (2023 age) since 2019:
Andrus (34):
83 wRC+, -26 SS defensive runs saved (3987 innings)
Iglesias (33): 92 wRC+, -23 SS defensive runs saved (3306 innings)
Villar (32): 94 wRC+, 0 SS defensive runs saved (1039 innings)
 

Sprowl

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That gamble could cost the team half a season of Story, after which he’ll be able to play shortstop again. I don’t see that as a gamble blowing up in anyone’s face.
You think that Story will play shortstop again? (in best Trevor Howard brogue) I DOUBT IT.

I consider that the tail of a very long tail risk gamble.

Iggy Now.
 

TimScribble

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Yorke was below replacement-level at high-A last year. He's years away from MLB with a reasonable chance at never (still 20 at least). Emmanuel Valdez was a bit above replacement-level at AAA last year so he's much more likely.

Rafaela was 119 OPS+ in half a season of AA at 21. He has a shot if he looks good in the spring but I wouldn't count on it.

More likely we sign one stopgap IF and either Arroyo starts or Kiké goes to 2nd so we can platoon Duran/Refsnyder.
Rafaela’s chase rate is scary. It’s why I was ok with the right trade for him.

View: https://twitter.com/iancundall/status/1612930581968429059?s=46&t=P8tlJZOQ3je41Z0l0cbOWQ
 

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You think that Story will play shortstop again? (in best Trevor Howard brogue) I DOUBT IT.

I consider that the tail of a very long tail risk gamble.

Iggy Now.
I don't really have an opinion, other than I believe what Dr Chris has to say on such matters


He should be back by the ASB and this should clear up any throwing issues to the point where he can play SS if he wants to/the Sox want him to
 

scottyno

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Iglesias hasn't been a good defensive shortstop in years, so not sure why so many people are interested in him outside of we know who he is and he was really good offensively for a month in 2021. At this point he's around league average with his glove and a bad bat, which I guess is better than what they currently have on the 40 man, but that's a really low bar right now.
 

johnnywayback

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It's not just that they don't have any depth up the middle; they don't have any depth in the middle of the lineup. We're looking at something like:

LF Yoshida (L)
3B Devers (L)
DH Turner
1B Casas (L)
CF/SS Hernandez
RF Verdugo (L)
2B Arroyo
C McGuire (L)
SS/CF TK

Not great. Way too left-handed. Lot of pressure on Casas to produce right away. Bad defensive alignment to boot with Yoshida learning the Wall and Verdugo in RF.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Is there any basis for this, other than confirmation bias? Seriously.
It ended up not being the case, my overreaction.

Nonetheless it is frustrating they seemed to never want to resign X at market rate, with this contingency plan but with this potential injury known, and now SS could be a gaping hole all of next year.
 

simplicio

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Rafaela’s chase rate is scary. It’s why I was ok with the right trade for him.

View: https://twitter.com/iancundall/status/1612930581968429059?s=46&t=P8tlJZOQ3je41Z0l0cbOWQ
His chase rate is high because he's quick enough to get to everything, though he doesn't always make good contact. Regardless, it's a known issue he's working on in winter ball; the Athletic had a whole story about it last year. https://theathletic.com/3736869/2022/11/03/red-sox-prospect-ceddanne-rafaela/

Despite that, he's performed at every level he's seen in the minors so far, while being 1.5-3 years younger than league averages.

I'm excited to get him here and not okay trading him.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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This sucks, but I can’t imagine them not getting someone to play SS. I wonder if he is out for all of 2023 if Mayer gets a cup of coffee by the end of the year?
 

Sprowl

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Iglesias hasn't been a good defensive shortstop in years, so not sure why so many people are interested in him outside of we know who he is and he was really good offensively for a month in 2021. At this point he's around league average with his glove and a bad bat, which I guess is better than what they currently have on the 40 man, but that's a really low bar right now.
Iggy is Beloved of SoSH. He stands in for nimble afoot, dexterity abroad. He has great hands, Bolshoi feet, and Bogey completion.

Also, he's priced appropriately for a shortstop suitable for the also ran, and frankly, what else do we hope for in 2013?

FWIIW, Iggy was a great utility infielder in the summer of 2013 before he was flipped for Jake Beavy and change. We have less to hope for in 2023
 

BornToRun

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Iggy is Beloved of SoSH. He stands in for nimble afoot, dexterity abroad. He has great hands, Bolshoi feet, and Bogey completion.

Also, he's priced appropriately for a shortstop suitable for the also ran, and frankly, what else do we hope for in 2013?

FWIIW, Iggy was a great utility infielder in the summer of 2013 before he was flipped for Jake Beavy and change. We have less to hope for in 2023
I’d rather Andrus but I could live with Iggy: Part III
 

johnlos

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His chase rate is high because he's quick enough to get to everything, though he doesn't always make good contact. Regardless, it's a known issue he's working on in winter ball; the Athletic had a whole story about it last year. https://theathletic.com/3736869/2022/11/03/red-sox-prospect-ceddanne-rafaela/

Despite that, he's performed at every level he's seen in the minors so far, while being 1.5-3 years younger than league averages.

I'm excited to get him here and not okay trading him.
To Tim's point though he's the kind of guy you shouldn't rush since MLB chews up and spits out incredible talents that failed to develop good enough discipline before they hit The Show. Agree that I'm excited though after his fast rise and high floor glove!
 

patinorange

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For like 5 weeks til he inevitably gets hurt again too.
Iglesias hasn't been a good defensive shortstop in years, so not sure why so many people are interested in him outside of we know who he is and he was really good offensively for a month in 2021. At this point he's around league average with his glove and a bad bat, which I guess is better than what they currently have on the 40 man, but that's a really low bar right now.
Bad bat? Not great but he hit .292 last year with a OBP of .328, both higher than Story. His bat won't kill them until (or if) Story comes back.
Cora loves him. I say he's coming.

Edit: and Arroyo is the definition of not reliable. Iggy looked pretty good at second in his short time with the Sox in 21.
 

Doc Zero

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FWIIW, Iggy was a great utility infielder in the summer of 2013 before he was flipped for Jake Beavy and change. We have less to hope for in 2023
Neither here nor there, but: Lord, what a sterling trade this ended up being.
 

johnlos

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Iggy is Beloved of SoSH. He stands in for nimble afoot, dexterity abroad. He has great hands, Bolshoi feet, and Bogey completion.

Also, he's priced appropriately for a shortstop suitable for the also ran, and frankly, what else do we hope for in 2013?

FWIIW, Iggy was a great utility infielder in the summer of 2013 before he was flipped for Jake Beavy and change. We have less to hope for in 2023
His defense has degraded to below-average unfortunately even if his bat has become a tiny bit more respectable. Bottom-10 in DRS for SSs with at least 500 innings last year: https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Fangraphs still has him as positive so maybe league-average at best?
 

scottyno

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Bad bat? Not great but he hit .292 last year with a OBP of .328, both higher than Story. His bat won't kill them until (or if) Story comes back.
Cora loves him. I say he's coming.
Playing in Coors will do that. He might be coming but there are better free agent options available. Story also combined that with gold glove caliber defense which Iggy doesn't have anymore, Story to Iggy is a pretty massive drop off.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Playing in Coors will do that. He might be coming but there are better free agent options available. Story also combined that with gold glove caliber defense which Iggy doesn't have anymore, Story to Iggy is a pretty massive drop off.
264/304/358 in Coors; 315/348/399 on the road.

Andrus seems like a potentially better option; assuming he would require more $$$ than Iggy and potentially less amenable to a backup role down the road, though?

Anyone else?
 

scottyno

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264/304/358 in Coors; 315/348/399 on the road.

Andrus seems like a potentially better option; assuming he would require more $$$ than Iggy and potentially less amenable to a backup role down the road?
Probably true, but in this case what exactly is down the road? Mayer won't be a factor until at minimum late 2024, so unless he's holding out for more than 2 years it shouldn't be an issue. He can play short, Arroyo can stay at 2nd, and then when Story comes back Arroyo becomes the utility guy, something they don't really have on the roster right now.
 

Sprowl

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His defense has degraded to below-average unfortunately even if his bat has become a tiny bit more respectable. Bottom-10 in DRS for SSs with at least 500 innings last year: https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Fangraphs still has him as positive so maybe league-average at best?
I acknowledge the legitimacy and data foundation of your response. Jose Iglesias is but what he used to be. And who the hell are we?

We've come down in the world: the cost is still cheaper than anything he will be compared to the currently available. He will cost barely a million.

Let's own up to the place we've come down to: Despair.