Trevor Story had surgery on his right UCL and is expected to miss time

lexrageorge

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Weren’t the reports that 4-6 months is the average recovery time for this kind of surgery? Assuming that’s true, one would think late June/early July is realistic unless he has a setback.
The Boston Globe had a more pessimistic take on the timeline:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/10/sports/red-sox-infielder-trevor-story-likely-miss-time-after-elbow-surgery/

That process has yielded much faster recovery times than the typical 12-18 months for Tommy John. Lefthander Rich Hill underwent an internal brace procedure in the fall of 2019 and was ready to pitch in July 2020. Outfielder Brandon Guyer also underwent a successful internal brace procedure in 2019.

The return to games is not as simple, however, as figuring out when Story will be able to swing and throw at full strength. At that point, which might take 5-6 months, he’d still need to work to regain his game stamina and timing.

“He has to hit and he has to throw if he’s going to play in the middle infield at the major league level. That requires a good amount of throwing and force. It’s not like you play two games a week. It’s a lot,” said Dr. Jeffrey Dugas of the Andrews Sports Medicine and Orthopaedic Center, who performed the first internal brace procedure on an elbow in August 2013 and estimated he performed 170-180 such repairs in 2022. “I would think it would be somewhere in the 6-9-month range. That would be a fair range.”
The "good" news is that the general medical consensus is that there will be nothing to prevent him from playing SS once he returns to full strength, so not sure why people seem to think that he'll never play there again. Given that pitchers have successfully recovered from elbow surgery, not sure why it would be any different for shortstops.
 

joe dokes

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It's also reasonable to expect that Story will never be able to play SS again once he has recovered.
I have this fear as well. But if the weakness in his throwing arm is "fixed," doesn't that increase his chances of playing SS?
OTOH--I'm reminded of a piece I read somewhere about Alan Bannister, a White Sox IF in the 70s & 80s. (It might have been in a book about the short-lived senior professional baseball league in the late 80s). He had chronic elbow pain that impacted his throws from SS. He finally had surgery, and reveled in a pain-free off season of throwing. And when the games started, he was still pain-free, and remained so. But he had lost several MPH off his throws that he could never regain. Presumably, surgery now and rehab is vastly improved.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I have this fear as well. But if the weakness in his throwing arm is "fixed," doesn't that increase his chances of playing SS?
OTOH--I'm reminded of a piece I read somewhere about Alan Bannister, a White Sox IF in the 70s. He had chronic elbow pain that impacted his throws from SS. He finally had surgery, and reveled in a pain-free off season of throwing. And when the games started, he was still pain-free, and remained so. But he had lost several MPH off his throws that he could never regain. Presumably, surgery now and rehab is vastly improved.
I just can't see it being wise to put a guy with a reconstructed elbow back at SS, particularly when he was a superior defensive 2Bman.

It's time for the Sox to be honest with themselves with what they have. The overthinking they've done when solutions were working just fine (ie Whitlock in the pen) has largely been to their detriment. Story was an excellent defensive second baseman. Keep him there once he's recovered.
 

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I have this fear as well. But if the weakness in his throwing arm is "fixed," doesn't that increase his chances of playing SS?
OTOH--I'm reminded of a piece I read somewhere about Alan Bannister, a White Sox IF in the 70s. He had chronic elbow pain that impacted his throws from SS. He finally had surgery, and reveled in a pain-free off season of throwing. And when the games started, he was still pain-free, and remained so. But he had lost several MPH off his throws that he could never regain. Presumably, surgery now and rehab is vastly improved.
this guy seems to agree with you

He should be back by the ASB and this should clear up any throwing issues to the point where he can play SS if he wants to/the Sox want him to
 

joe dokes

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I just can't see it being wise to put a guy with a reconstructed elbow back at SS, particularly when he was a superior defensive 2Bman.

It's time for the Sox to be honest with themselves with what they have. The overthinking they've done when solutions were working just fine (ie Whitlock in the pen) has largely been to their detriment. Story was an excellent defensive second baseman. Keep him there once he's recovered.
Of course, if they have someone to play SS (perhaps a rookie on the rise) the question becomes academic.
 

joe dokes

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Agreed. I just don't want them to double down and say "Well he signed this guy to play short if X leaves, so come hell or high water we're gonna put him at short once he's recovered."
I put that in the bottom 1% of possible routes to his playing SS. It's not like he's playing for a contract or some other situation where SS would increase his "value." Obviously, a lot depends on where he and the team are in 6 months.
 

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I just can't see it being wise to put a guy with a reconstructed elbow back at SS, particularly when he was a superior defensive 2Bman.

It's time for the Sox to be honest with themselves with what they have. The overthinking they've done when solutions were working just fine (ie Whitlock in the pen) has largely been to their detriment. Story was an excellent defensive second baseman. Keep him there once he's recovered.
He also has years of history as a superior defensive shortstop before he hurt his elbow. If he's fully healed, it seems silly to limit him to second base just because he was really good there for the year he couldn't throw.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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He also has years of history as a superior defensive shortstop before he hurt his elbow. If he's fully healed, it seems silly to limit him to second base just because he was really good there for the year he couldn't throw.
He will be 31 years old next spring training and assuming he's fully healed from this brace surgery he should be the starting second baseman. Not only because his throwing is already diminished and unlikely to come back but also because Meyer will be knocking at the door for that position.

He's a really really good second baseman. Keep him there.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yeah. I think watching whether Whitlock and Houck can adjust to starting might be fun. Or it could be really painful. I mean, I kinda know what's in W&H's bag of tricks, so that could be interesting to see how that translates. But if they get lit up, it'd be like a double Bob Stanley circa 1987 flashback.
Fair enough. Watching any prospect can look ugly. I just at least find that interesting in a "maybe this guy turns into something for when we're good again" kind of way.

For what it's worth, I'm genuinely interested in watching all of Casas, Valdez, Devers, Yoshida, Rafaela (if he comes up, obviously), Whitlock, Houck, Bello and Mata (feel free to throw Murphy or Walter in here too). Everything else I just hope we get some that are at least worthy of fetching a Valdez level prospect in the summer.
 

I Miss Maalox

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I acknowledge the legitimacy and data foundation of your response. Jose Iglesias is but what he used to be. And who the hell are we?

We've come down in the world: the cost is still cheaper than anything he will be compared to the currently available. He will cost barely a million.

Let's own up to the place we've come down to: Despair.
This post needs more love. Sprowl is the Poet Laureate of Sosh. And Jose Iglesias can be our King of Pain.
 

scottyno

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Merloni, of all people, also debunked this by talking about typical offseason rest and throwing programs.

That being said, obviously this is a crisis situation. They're paying out a 6/140 contract and so far have gotten 94 games of 102 OPS+ offense and now a lost 2023 season. It's also reasonable to expect that Story will never be able to play SS again once he has recovered.
Don't even want to wait for the season to happen to determine it being a lost season for Story? It could be a lost season, or he could play half a season and be worth close his contract value like he was last year. Or anywhere in between.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Don't even want to wait for the season to happen to determine it being a lost season for Story?
Everything I've read about this surgery says 4-6 months at minimum for recovery. Bloom himself said yesterday they aren't counting on him for 2023. Better to be conservative in guessing about his recovery and be pleasantly surprised if he makes it back sooner.

Either way, the contract has been a disaster so far.
 

scottyno

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Everything I've read about this surgery says 4-6 months at minimum for recovery. Bloom himself said yesterday they aren't counting on him for 2023. Better to be conservative in guessing about his recovery and be pleasantly surprised if he makes it back sooner.

Either way, the contract has been a disaster so far.
Thus far the contract has been 1 year where he was worth slightly under his salary thanks to a freak injury. And it's looking like he probably won't be worth his 2023 salary, but writing it off already is pretty silly,
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Thus far the contract has been 1 year where he was worth slightly under his salary thanks to a freak injury. And it's looking like he probably won't be worth his 2023 salary, but writing it off already is pretty silly,
Since he's likely to miss all of 2023, he'll be 2 years into a six year deal and will have provided a total of 2.5 WAR.

That's very poor start to this deal. He'd have to play at a substantially higher rate than he's done up to this point to make the deal totally worth it. At age 31+. So I'm not counting on that.
 

jbupstate

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Funny how a group of recently signed pitcher’s with significant injury histories can be counted on to “pitch” again at elite levels but Story’s elbow might not let him play shortstop.

Also funny that with Story on the shelf the 2023 season is now toast.

Let Story get healthy and let him play shortstop until Mayer kicks him to 2B permanently. A healthy Story playing a better than average SS is a valuable asset.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Funny how a group of recently signed pitcher’s with significant injury histories can be counted on to “pitch” again at elite levels but Story’s elbow might not let him play shortstop.

Also funny that with Story on the shelf the 2023 season is now toast.

Let Story get healthy and let him play shortstop until Mayer kicks him to 2B permanently. A healthy Story playing a better than average SS is a valuable asset.
With Story out, the lineup looks like this:

View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1613219496755437569?s=20


That's not ideal. It's probably the best they can do for now but it doesn't look great.
 

scottyno

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Since he's likely to miss all of 2023, he'll be 2 years into a six year deal and will have provided a total of 2.5 WAR.

That's very poor start to this deal. He'd have to play at a substantially higher rate than he's done up to this point to make the deal totally worth it. At age 31+. So I'm not counting on that.
No one has said he's likely to miss all of 2023
 

jbupstate

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Best case scenario is Duran starts out hot and can be a piece at the deadline. If he stinks. He stinks.

The 2023 season is going to come down to how Chris Sale performs. If he’s able to take the baseball regularly he makes the Sox a much tougher team. Allows a lot of guys to move down a slot. I also think the Sox missed his fiery personality. Let’s face it. Xander and JDM were not in your face players. One thing I started to like about Verdugo last year.
 

scottyno

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Chaim Bloom said they're prepping like he'll miss the season. So yes, likely:

View: https://twitter.com/jtomase/status/1612923397889052682?s=20
Great, how would they prep any differently if they expected him to miss half a season instead of a full one? Even if they expect him to miss 4-6 months it doesn't make any sense for them to say that at this point because then at 4 everyone starts asking when he'll be back when it might still be several months away.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Great, how would they prep any differently if they expected him to miss half a season instead of a full one? Even if they expect him to miss 4-6 months it doesn't make any sense for them to say that at this point because then at 4 everyone starts asking when he'll be back when it might still be several months away.
So the FO, manager and GM are prepping like he'll miss the season and you want to infer that he's definitely coming back sooner? That makes zero sense. Just assume he's out for the year. The people that make decisions seem to be doing that, we proles ought to as well.

If he comes back earlier and more importantly is effective, consider it a bonus. For the foreseeable future, Trevor Story will not be contributing to the Red Sox on the field.
 

Dogman

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Chaim Bloom said they're prepping like he'll miss the season. So yes, likely:

View: https://twitter.com/jtomase/status/1612923397889052682?s=20

Eh, everything we have read, including our own Doctors here say 4-6 months. Bloom is clearly lowering expectations but is aware he is back in 2023 at some point. I would doubt there is any way Story missed 10 months unless he has some freak accident/injury to another body part.

Even at 6 months, he is back in June. The sky isn't falling. We won't be good but at least we are prepared for that now.
 

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From earlier in the thread…

Hopefully this is the product of a realization that throwing out a date range in terms of when someone will be back on the field creates unnecessary pressure for both the player and team. Better to under promise and over deliver.
This is almost certainly what Bloom meant here, I’d guess he’ll be back somewhere midseason if all goes well, but they can’t just assume that.
 

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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Eh, everything we have read, including our own Doctors here say 4-6 months. Bloom is clearly lowering expectations but is aware he is back in 2023 at some point. I would doubt there is any way Story missed 10 months unless he has some freak accident/injury to another body part.

Even at 6 months, he is back in June. The sky isn't falling. We won't be good but at least we are prepared for that now.
I will bet you $100 to the Jimmy Fund he's not back on the major league roster in June. No way. He could have a setback in rehab, he would need minor league rehab time....it's simply not realistic.

This is the same guy who played in only 94 games last year. He gets injured. There's no chance he's back by June.
 

Dogman

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I always thought the timeline for return includes the rehab time in the minors.

You keep saying he is likely out for 2023. So, that's the side you get in this proposed wager. If Story plays at any time in 2023 for Boston, you pay the $100. If he doesn't play in 2023 for Boston, I'll pay it.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I always thought the timeline for return includes the rehab time in the minors.

You keep saying he is likely out for 2023. So, that's the side you get in this proposed wager. If Story plays at anytime in 2023, you pay the $100. If he doesn't play in 2023 for Boston, I'll pay it.
You're on. Maybe he'll surprise us all, but I very highly doubt it.
 

Dogman

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I edited. Just to be sure, he must play for Boston so any rehab assignment at any level other than the majors does not count.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Best case scenario is Duran starts out hot and can be a piece at the deadline. If he stinks. He stinks.

The 2023 season is going to come down to how Chris Sale performs. If he’s able to take the baseball regularly he makes the Sox a much tougher team. Allows a lot of guys to move down a slot. I also think the Sox missed his fiery personality. Let’s face it. Xander and JDM were not in your face players. One thing I started to like about Verdugo last year.
Duran is going to be a big piece of 2023. If he can get his head on straight and play passable defense in CF, then the Sox can weather the storm. If he can't, then they'll have no choice but to move Hernandez back to CF and dig around for a shortstop somewhere.

This is where Verdugo's lack of versatility hurts them. He can really only play left field.
 

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JM3

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This is the same guy who played in only 94 games last year. He gets injured. There's no chance he's back by June.
This is kind of a silly statement based on that limited sample size...

'17 - 17 games missed
'18 - 5 games missed
'19 - 17 games missed
'20 - 1 game missed
'21 - 20 games missed

Seems basically fine until last year when he had a freak hbp thing? It's fine to criticize based on the known arm issue that it's likely he wasn't going to make it 6 years without an arm injury, but the rest of the narrative & determining that this is an awful contract because he's absolutely producing nothing this season because he misses games & that's just what he does seems off-base.
 

simplicio

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He had two injuries last year, after six years of reliable health. You're acting like he's Byron Buxton.
 

jezza1918

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Because he missed 70 games last year?

He was very, very injured last year. He missed a ton of time with multiple injuries. That needs to be accounted for as he tries to overcome yet another injury.
I will bet you $100 to the Jimmy Fund he's not back on the major league roster in June. No way. He could have a setback in rehab, he would need minor league rehab time....it's simply not realistic.

This is the same guy who played in only 94 games last year. He gets injured. There's no chance he's back by June.
The two bolded points come across very differently. At least they do for me (and seemingly other posters).
Agreed on your larger point that I doubt we see him in June. But maybe back for the playoff run... (isn't the whole point of being a baseball fan blind optimism at this point in the year)?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This is kind of a silly statement based on that limited sample size...

'17 - 17 games missed
'18 - 5 games missed
'19 - 17 games missed
'20 - 1 game missed
'21 - 20 games missed

Seems basically fine until last year when he had a freak hbp thing? It's fine to criticize based on the known arm issue that it's likely he wasn't going to make it 6 years without an arm injury, but the rest of the narrative & determining that this is an awful contract because he's absolutely producing nothing this season because he misses games & that's just what he does seems off-base.
As mentioned above, he injured his heel as well.

Again, the contract is awful because in Year 2 it's apparent he's going to once again miss an enormous part of the season. The contract is already a net negative in terms of production; it's increasingly unlikely he'll produce enough when finally healthy to change that equation.
 

curly2

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Best case scenario is Duran starts out hot and can be a piece at the deadline. If he stinks. He stinks.
If Duran plays well (and they think it’s genuine improvement and not a mirage) they shouldn’t trade him unless they get a great offer. There’s no guarantee Rafaela is ready to be the center fielder in 2024, but if he is, and Duran has shown he can play, Duran could go to left and they could trade Verdugo, who would be nearing the end of team control.

Of course, it’s a big IF on Duran’s improvement.
 

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I took the 4 - 6 months to recovery to mean that he would be able to start throwing after the recovery time. I have no idea how long it will take him to build up his arm strength enough to play 2B, much less SS. I'm thinking a minimum of 30 days.
 

Dogman

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That's fair. It isn't spelled out so it absolutely could mean he starts throwing after 6 months. Who knows.

SJH may well win this wager but regardless, The Jimmy Fund wins.
 

JM3

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As mentioned above, he injured his heel as well.

Again, the contract is awful because in Year 2 it's apparent he's going to once again miss an enormous part of the season. The contract is already a net negative in terms of production; it's increasingly unlikely he'll produce enough when finally healthy to change that equation.
He bruised his heel (& caught some sort of illness from Arroyo around the same time). It's hard to take your criticisms seriously when they fail to actually incorporate the things that should make one worry about the contract.

In his five full seasons in the big leagues prior to signing with Boston, Story played in 648 of 708 (92%) of total games. There's no reason to believe his lack of reliability this season was anything but a fluke.
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-soxs-trevor-story-sustains-additional-ailment-on-top-of-heel-injury

Who would you describe as a reliably healthy player? There can't be many people by that standard. Of course, there is some folly on relying on the health of literally any high level professional athlete, but singling out Story feels agenda'd.
 

BornToRun

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Best case scenario is Duran starts out hot and can be a piece at the deadline. If he stinks. He stinks.

The 2023 season is going to come down to how Chris Sale performs. If he’s able to take the baseball regularly he makes the Sox a much tougher team. Allows a lot of guys to move down a slot. I also think the Sox missed his fiery personality. Let’s face it. Xander and JDM were not in your face players. One thing I started to like about Verdugo last year.
I just hope he’ll be able to pitch in Toronto.
 

Humphrey

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It actually may be the worst idea. He’s a bad outfielder with a dental floss arm and a worse attitude.

One of our issues is that we haven’t signed any minor league contracts (except Niko) because we don’t have 40 man space. Somebody signed Bradley Zimmer to a minor league contract a couple weeks ago. Now, he can’t hit major league pitching, but he can play center. However, because we have Caleb Ort and his ilk protected on the 40 we can’t take flyers like that.
What about the other way around? Duran seems to have no instinctive outfielder traits.
 

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When Bloom talks about this, isn't he talking about it from an operational standpoint instead of from a managing expectations for fans or fully predictive standpoint?

In other words, when an injury like this happens to a key position a short time before the season, you have to make a judgment about what to do about it. There are a host of options from trying to use existing puzzle pieces to going out to make a signing. And making a signing could mean a lot of things. It could mean signing a shortstop or it could mean signing depth to allow Hernandez to play short, or whatever.

In order to figure out how to approach that, you can either view it as a July problem or a 2023 problem, and I think which of those you pick will affect how you try to deal with it.

So, trying to read tea leaves into what Chaim said to predict when the guy will actually be back seems to miss the point of why he was saying what he was saying. I understood his purpose to be that in terms of planning for the outage they are looking at is as 2023 thing, not a July thing.

Edit: Also, the operative part of Cora's statement is "if nothing changes." I think Cora is simply saying, "based on the pieces I currently have available to me, this is what I would do."
 

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Not that I think it's a realistic option, but I don't think I've ever come across why Duran was moved to the outfield. Was his play at 2B that bad, or did they think he could handle CF?