Trading Chips and Keepers

[RedOctober3829]

@SherrodbCSN: The Lee-for-Bayless deal has to include add'l salary from Memphis side. Don't be surprised if Jon Leuer and his $900K salary is included.

Lee is probably not playing tonight per Brad Stevens.

 

[radsoxfan]

@SherrodbCSN: The Lee-for-Bayless deal has to include add'l salary from Memphis side. Don't be surprised if Jon Leuer and his $900K salary is included.
Lee is probably not playing tonight per Brad Stevens.

No way we get Leuer. If we do, Danny is a genius.

I think Franklin as salary filler must be the addition (though is that enough?). Hope no picks going to Memphis, but a 2nd rounder would be OK I guess.

 

[Cellar-Door]

No way we get Leuer. If we do, Danny is a genius.

I think Franklin as salary filler must be the addition (though is that enough?). Hope no picks going to Memphis, but a 2nd rounder would be OK I guess.

It's enough, they only need to add something like $375K so anyone on their roster is enough.
I can't imagine it is Leuer, he'd be the best piece in the trade and Stein would have mentioned it.

 

[bball831]

Could be Nick Calathes -- salaries work is 45K cheaper than Franklin and 1 year shorter (assuming both deals are fully guaranteed).

 

[Cellar-Door]

Stein apparently says it is straight up and the Grizz are using the Rudy Gay TPE? Seems a waste to me blowing a $7.5M TPE just to bridge that small gap.
 
Edit- I'm an idiot, Trade exceptions can now be used in part with the remainder still available.

 

[Devizier]

So now the Celtics have a Paul Pierce and Courtney Lee traded player exemption?

 

[bball831]

I think they'd only use the ~$400K they are short not the full 7.5

 

[Ed Hillel]

Damn, if you told me someone was going to take on Courtney Lee's salary after last season, I would have eaten my own butt.
 
Me likey.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So now the Celtics have a Paul Pierce and Courtney Lee traded player exemption?

they don't get a TPE for Lee, In fact looking at it I think it is technically going to be (if I am understanding Larry Coon's CBA site correctly) simultaneous trades. Lee for nothing (MEM uses part of Rudy Gay TPE) and Bayless for nothing (Celtics use part of Paul Pierce TPE).

 

[nighthob]

they don't get a TPE for Lee, In fact looking at it I think it is technically going to be (if I am understanding Larry Coon's CBA site correctly) simultaneous trades. Lee for nothing (MEM uses part of Rudy Gay TPE) and Bayless for nothing (Celtics use part of Paul Pierce TPE).

 
Or a non-simultaneous trade where Boston sends Lee to Memphis with the Grizzlies absorbing him via their TPE while Boston then absorbs Bayless with the TPE generated by Lee.

 

[Brickowski]

If the deal goes through, hopefully it means less time at the point for Crawford.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Is Humphries playing his way into some trade value?

 

[nighthob]

I hope so.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I haven't watched most of the games, but I follow the box scores and while Crawford and Sullinger have been the feel good stories in succession, it now seems to me that the keeper from this season looks to be Bradley. His FG is now at 45% while he's shooting 40% from the 3. He doesn't seem to be going to the line, but if his defense is as good as they say it is and he maintains this form throughout the season, then he belong in the rebuilding core as a starter for sure.

 

[Jer]

I haven't watched most of the games, but I follow the box scores and while Crawford and Sullinger have been the feel good stories in succession, it now seems to me that the keeper from this season looks to be Bradley. His FG is now at 45% while he's shooting 40% from the 3. He doesn't seem to be going to the line, but if his defense is as good as they say it is and he maintains this form throughout the season, then he belong in the rebuilding core as a starter for sure.

Would you give him a 4-year, $26 million contract? I think that's the rough number it'll take to keep him this off-season (might be low-balling it too).
 
If you make that commitment, you've got to deal with nobody being able to guard the 2 effectively when Rondo/Bradley are on the floor together.
 
I'm still holding out hope that he can be traded for meaningful value before the deadline. At least he's playing well enough to be desirable for other teams.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I dunno. 6.5 per year doesn't seem bad to the numbers I am seeing now. Can he replicate them and increase them over the years? Then it looks like a good contract to me. OTOH, these numbers may be contract year numbers and he may regress to worse.

Either way, I was probably overenthusiastic. I say yes to a trade if it brings good value back. But what value can it be? Will someone give us a better player than Bradley? As far as draft picks are concerned, I don't think we ll be getting anything in the top 10 for him.

 

[Koufax]

Oddly, the feel-good player so far for me is Chris Humphries who, after riding the pine for the first month or so of the season, now leads the team in WS/48 by quite a lot, with a .177 score. 
 
Bradley, however, is not having a good season.  His WS/48 is 0.53  -- behind those of Humphries, Brandon Bass, Jeff Green and Jordan Crawford.  Yes, he has hot streaks, but he is slipping in other areas, including defense.  His steals per 36 minutes is 1.2.  Not terrible, but well below the 1.6 of last years.  He's not a bum, but this season is a disappointment, not a pleasant surprise. 
 
Frankly, I don't mention those particular statistics because I have a deep appreciation of them, only because they confirm what my eyes tell me from watching nearly every game.  Believe me, I wanted to love Bradley and hate Humphreys, but their play tells me something else.  

 

[wutang112878]

I dunno. 6.5 per year doesn't seem bad to the numbers I am seeing now. Can he replicate them and increase them over the years? Then it looks like a good contract to me. OTOH, these numbers may be contract year numbers and he may regress to worse.

 
I wouldnt want to do this.  One thing that really gets franchises in trouble is giving non difference makers contracts at or above MLE levels.  If you have 2 max guys who deserve it and 2 MLE guys who arent real difference makers, now you have ~$20M in cap space to fill in 8 active roster spots which is brutal. 
 
We have had some examples where this didnt work like Jason Terry and Courtney Lee.  Part of the reason Danny didnt want to give BBD a big deal is this 'you arent really a difference maker' logic, which is why he traded for Bass and then he gave Bass that contract which in its totality didnt exactly add value to the franchise.  I'd be happy to drive Crawford to the airport, and you will find me sulking in the corner if he has a press conference to announce resigning here

 

[Brickowski]

Crawford is a difference maker. It's just that the difference is negative, not positive. When he goes on a dribbling spree possession after possession, you can almost guarantee a sub-20 point quarter.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Per Peter Vescey, the Celtics will trade Crawford when Rondo returns.

Brooklyn, Suns, Rockets, Warriors are interested. Sorry no link at the moment, on mobile.

 

[Jer]

That'd be great!
 
Here's your link...
http://www.netsdaily.com/2014/1/15/5310806/peter-vecsey-nets-interested-in-jordan-crawford
 

 
 
With Rondo about 2B activated, Celtics are close 2 dealing Jordan Crawford. BK, Clips, Suns, Rockets, Warriors are interested

 

[gmogmo]

That'd be great!
 
Here's your link...
http://www.netsdaily.com/2014/1/15/5310806/peter-vecsey-nets-interested-in-jordan-crawford
 

Depends on the asset coming back, in some way I want them to keep Crawford because he helps ensure losses this year.....

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I was under the impression that the C's and Clippers couldn't make a deal for a year.

 

[TheRooster]

Hard to imagine anything close to an asset coming back.  Maybe a 2nd rounder, but more likely a shorter contract, right?

 

[Brickowski]

Given Bledsoe's injury I can see why the Suns might be interested.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I have no idea how Houston values Motiejunas at this point, but his agent is trying to get him somewhere that he can get an opportunity, and would be a potential high-upside flier if the C's could get him for Crawford. But I really have no sense of Motiejunas' value at this point.

 

[bowiac]

I haven't watched most of the games, but I follow the box scores and while Crawford and Sullinger have been the feel good stories in succession, it now seems to me that the keeper from this season looks to be Bradley. His FG is now at 45% while he's shooting 40% from the 3. He doesn't seem to be going to the line, but if his defense is as good as they say it is and he maintains this form throughout the season, then he belong in the rebuilding core as a starter for sure.

45% is not a particularly good FG% given his shot selection and the lack of free throws. His TS% (which incorporates FG% + 3s + free throws) is pretty bad at .514.
 
I'm also not sure what's going on with his defense. If he were Tony Allen, then the defense + 3 point shooting would be enough. However, I'm not sure he can guard 2s yet at that level. The difference between being 6'4" and 6'2" is a big one. So even if he is a lockdown defender vs. point guards, since he's playing SG mostly, you need to pair him with a PG who can guard 2s.

 

[Sprowl]

So far the trade market has been sizzling hot in guards, and Ainge has shipped out three for draft assets and financial flexibility. Unfortunately, the early season frontcourt logjam has persisted, and with Anthony it has grown even more crowded. Doesn't anybody want power forwards any more? Will no one rid me of this meddlesome Bass?

 

[ivanvamp]

Big night for Sullinger last night (25/20), now averaging 13.2 points and 7.8 rebounds.  Very useful NBA player, not a star, probably never will be a star, but a guy good teams would like to have.
 
The question I have is this:  If you're Danny, do you see Sullinger as a key building block for the Celtics' future, or do you see him more as a quality trade piece?  
 
(and maybe it's not an either/or scenario:  maybe they like him, but would definitely listen to offers)

 

[wutang112878]

The question I have is this:  If you're Danny, do you see Sullinger as a key building block for the Celtics' future, or do you see him more as a quality trade piece?  

 
Fortunately we have another season to figure this out before we have to start thinking about a new contract.  I think he could be a building block or trade bait.  If you have 2 real superstars maybe he could be your 3rd best player on a contender and he could certainly be your 4th best.  Besides becoming a more efficient shooter I think what we are seeing recently is his ceiling, effective low post player who can play solid D and is a great rebounder.  But if you were to make a poor-mans KG trade where Sully was the Al Jefferson, I wouldnt have a problem with it. 
 
Another very important question to figure out, which may dictate what we do with him, is his long-term health.  He looks great and it seems his back isnt a problem at the moment, but he also looked great his rookie year until it suddenly flared up and required surgery.  If they think he is going to become damaged goods, then we should send him packing while he looks healthy

 

[Jer]

It'll be interesting to monitor the Kevin Love situation. There are plenty of signals that he doesn't want to resign with Minnesota. They may be forced into a sign-and-trade next summer or a straight trade before the 2014/15 Feb deadline to maximize return.
 
If either happens, then some combination of Sullinger, salary filler, & draft picks might get it done. Having a few expiring contracts laying around will definitely help.
 
Maybe a resigned Rondo + impressive 2014 draftee would be enough to lure him in. You've got to think our roster be more attractive than the Lakers, Knicks, or Brooklyn.

 
Apparently he'd prefer CA or NY, which is always a barrier we run into. CA, NY, FL, and TX seem to have a huge default advantage. Damn warm weather, night life, and taxes.

 

[ivanvamp]

All I'm thinking is that, of all the pieces Boston has, Sullinger just might fetch you the most - perhaps even more than Rondo given that Rondo is coming off an ACL injury and costs a lot more (but still, probably not, as Rondo is an elite point guard).  And since they appear to be several years away from contending, it might be a good time to move him, if there's the possibility of a nice package in return.  
 
But I have no idea (a) what Danny thinks, and (b) what the trade market is out there for a guy like him.  

 

[ivanvamp]

 
It'll be interesting to monitor the Kevin Love situation. There are plenty of signals that he doesn't want to resign with Minnesota. They may be forced into a sign-and-trade next summer or a straight trade before the 2014/15 Feb deadline to maximize return.
 
If either happens, then some combination of Sullinger, salary filler, & draft picks might get it done. Having a few expiring contracts laying around will definitely help.
 
Maybe a resigned Rondo + impressive 2014 draftee would be enough to lure him in. You've got to think our roster be more attractive than the Lakers, Knicks, or Brooklyn.

 
Apparently he'd prefer CA or NY, which is always a barrier we run into. CA, NY, FL, and TX seem to have a huge default advantage. Damn warm weather, night life, and taxes.

 

 
For the love of sports, if nothing else, the voters of Massachusetts need to stop electing people who make the commonwealth one of the most heavily taxed states in the union!!

 

[gmogmo]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140116/boston-celtics-danny-ainge-trade-future-rebuilding/#ixzz2qZXz7X4v
 
Good article on C's acquiring assets to fast track rebuild

 

[ivanvamp]

List of potential free agents in 2014-15 here:  http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9947573/nba-free-agents-2014-2015
 
It would be incredible if the Celtics could somehow land Kevin Love.  

 

[Brickowski]

LOL, the ESPN list is already outdated.

Looking at the list of unrestricted FA's, the market will obviously be determined by what the 3 guys in Miami do. Assuming that they stay in South Beach, the only guy who might interest me from a rebuilding perspective is Al-Farouq Aminu, who is still only 24. The others are all too old. Sefolosha is a nice player, but he's 29. The Celtics would do just as well to bring Humphries back on a much smaller deal. And Ainge has to decide how much Bradley is worth.

As for the restricted FAs, the three that stand out are Hayward, Monroe and Bledsoe.

I do not see how Ainge can get Love. You would never trade for him unless you could sign him to a long-term extension, and the scuttlebutt is that Love is headed to Southern California in the Summer of 2015.

 

[ivanvamp]

I agree on Love, which is why it would be incredible if the C's somehow got him.  
 
Hayward is interesting to me. I think he's a pretty good player, but I'm concerned about his declining field goal percentage.
 
2010-11:  .485
2011-12:  .456
2012-13:  .435
2013-14:  .415
 
His rebound and assist numbers continue to go up, so that's nice.  Would you rather have Hayward or Sullinger?  Very different players, obviously, playing different positions.  Maybe they're actually somewhat complementary.  Rondo, Hayward, Sullinger, a good athletic shooting guard (from the draft, maybe Gary Harris of Michigan St. or Dante Exum?), and a rim protector (Sanders?  Asik?).  That might be an interesting starting five.

 

[Devizier]

I don't quite understand the love for Hayward. Isn't he basically Mike Miller circa Orlando? There's value in a player like that, but given the contracts that have been handed over to RFAs, I'd rather stay the hell away.

 

[Brickowski]

I certainly would not give up Sullinger for Hayward, I would plan to put an offer sheet in front of Hayward that Utah will find difficult to match. To get far enough below the cap to do that, Ainge might have to let Bradley walk, unless he can shed Bass, Green and/or Joel Anthony between now and next July 1st.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

The Jazz have made Hayward the focal point of their offense and he has responded by becoming woefully inefficient. I know there have been whispers about the Celtics because of Stevens but I don't really see it. I hate the idea of spending assets and/or cap space on a complementary player who could hinder the team's ability to acquire actual elite players in the future.

 

[Brickowski]

The Jazz have made Hayward the focal point of their offense and he has responded by becoming woefully inefficient. I know there have been whispers about the Celtics because of Stevens but I don't really see it. I hate the idea of spending assets and/or cap space on a complementary player who could hinder the team's ability to acquire actual elite players in the future.

I like Hayward--he's certainly a better all-around player than Mike Miller-- but the guy I really covet is Monroe.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The Jazz have made Hayward the focal point of their offense and he has responded by becoming woefully inefficient. I know there have been whispers about the Celtics because of Stevens but I don't really see it. I hate the idea of spending assets and/or cap space on a complementary player who could hinder the team's ability to acquire actual elite players in the future.

Yeah, I agree. I also think we're going to be pretty bad next year no matter what happens so it doesn't make sense to me to try to make significant FA splash this offseason unless there's a really unique player available, and Hayward isnt' that. You want to collect/develop assets, preserve cap space, and bide your time until you have enough other pieces in place that using the FA option makes you a serious playoff team at the very least.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

A Boston team getting a good asset from a Minnesota team cheap? 
 
I like our chances!

 

[Jer]

I do not see how Ainge can get Love. You would never trade for him unless you could sign him to a long-term extension, and the scuttlebutt is that Love is headed to Southern California in the Summer of 2015.

 
I remain hopeful that the Lakers screwed themselves with the Kobe extension. It runs a year too long to have significant cap room by summer 2015. I don't think they'll have the cap room to sign another Max guy and bring Love in at the max. So that means they'd try to lure him in with Kobe+[2014 lottery pick]+[non-max guy]+[promises of future transactions].
 
I would think scorers would rather play with a great distributor like Rondo than a past-prime Kobe.
 
We'd obviously gain a ton of leverage if Danny hits the jackpot with our 2014 lottery pick and the Lakers pick a dud.
 
Regardless... I know it's a long-shot... but I enjoy running through the scenarios.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Gordon Hayward is the white Jeff green

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

Yes, trading Crawford for a couple of 2nd rounders would be so stupid that any GM contemplating it should be fired immediately.  I doubt Ainge is even thinking about it.  
 
 

 
Nice reverse prediction.  

 

[nighthob]

I certainly would not give up Sullinger for Hayward, I would plan to put an offer sheet in front of Hayward that Utah will find difficult to match. To get far enough below the cap to do that, Ainge might have to let Bradley walk, unless he can shed Bass, Green and/or Joel Anthony between now and next July 1st.

You're going to have to go to max to get Utah to think twice. Fortunately Boston can't.

 

[nighthob]

I remain hopeful that the Lakers screwed themselves with the Kobe extension. It runs a year too long to have significant cap room by summer 2015. I don't think they'll have the cap room to sign another Max guy and bring Love in at the max. So that means they'd try to lure him in with Kobe+[2014 lottery pick]+[non-max guy]+[promises of future transactions].
 
I would think scorers would rather play with a great distributor like Rondo than a past-prime Kobe.
 
We'd obviously gain a ton of leverage if Danny hits the jackpot with our 2014 lottery pick and the Lakers pick a dud.
 
Regardless... I know it's a long-shot... but I enjoy running through the scenarios.

The Lakers will have plenty of cap room in the summer of 2015. More importantly it's still LA and they're still going to get the pick of the litter in the free agent market. That's just how it goes.

 

[Jer]

The Lakers will have plenty of cap room in the summer of 2015.

 
Can you explain how they'd have enough room to have 3 max players (1 being Kobe, 1 being Love, & 1 other ... say Carmelo)?
 
The only scenario I can make work is if they extend Gasol for a 1 year deal or trade him very soon.

 

[wutang112878]

 
Can you explain how they'd have enough room to have 3 max players (1 being Kobe, 1 being Love, & 1 other ... say Carmelo)?
 
The only scenario I can make work is if they extend Gasol for a 1 year deal or trade him very soon.

 
I dont know about 3 max guys, although if Kobe took like $20M they probably could have.  But the only thing they have on the cap for 15/16 is Kobes $25M and Sacres $1M, add in 10 cap holds at $500K a pop, their cap number is $31M.  If the cap stays flat at $58M they would have $27M which is another max guy and then some.