Trading Chips and Keepers

[gmogmo]

Not sure if this deserves it's own thread, but Omar Asik talks seem to be ramping up in advance of the Rockets self-imposed deadline at end of week.  Personally I'd love to get him for Bass and the Clippers #1 next year, doubt that gets it done though.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4709397/omer-asik-talks-progressing?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[CreightonGubanich]

Cousins needs to get out of Sacramento. I think he'd love playing for Brad Stevens, and I'd trade Rondo for him in a heartbeat. He's just a tremendous talent; can score, rebound, defend, and he's a fantastic passer. The only reservation is the fact that he's not very athletic, and if you think Jared Sullinger is a real building block, I'm not sure how well the two of them would play together. 
 
But it's exactly what Danny Ainge should be doing. Taking a guy with question marks out of a bad situation, and adding him to the "stockpile of assets" that will eventually land the Celtics their star, whether it's Cousins himself or as a piece in a trade.
 
Needless to say, I'm skeptical that such a trade has any chance of happening. 

 

[ivanvamp]

Derrick Coleman was a good NBA player, like Dale Davis and Kevin Willis were. Terrific is kind of an overstatement.

 
Maybe we're parsing terms here, but Kevin Willis in his prime WAS terrific.  18.3 points, 15.5 rebounds (1991-92)?  How is that NOT terrific?  
 
Dale Davis doesn't belong in the conversation with these guys.  

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Would an Asik/Cousins tandem work?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
Maybe we're parsing terms here, but Kevin Willis in his prime WAS terrific.  18.3 points, 15.5 rebounds (1991-92)?  How is that NOT terrific?  
 
Dale Davis doesn't belong in the conversation with these guys.  

 
Maybe because he was better?  Quick:  match Win Shares to player.  64.3 (15 years), 81.8 (21 years), 86.9 (16 years).
 
 
I know Win Shares isn't the end all and be all but it does give some context.  I daresay that during this time, more than a few people would rather have Dale Davis on their team than either Kevin ("Black Hole") Willis or Derrick Coleman.  That's not to say the other two guys were terrible but to emphasize how good Dale Davis with respect to doing things - other than scoring - to help a team win.

 

[moly99]

You don't want to touch a 23 year old center who is averaging 22/11? I mean, I know that he has some issues, but you would have to take a serious, serious look at a deal like that if it was out there

 
You have to look beyond counting stats.
 
Yes, he scores a lot of points. But Cousins' career shooting percentage is .453, which is really bad for a post up player. (Dwight's is .577.) Cousins scores lots of points because he takes lots of shots. The only bit of good news is that he draws lots of fouls.
 
Cousins racks up a lot of rebounds, but he does so in part because he is using the Kevin Love trick of not playing help defense and instead looking to grab the rebound if the shot misses.
 
I could handle his personality issues if he were a Dwight Howard level center, but Boogie isn't close to Howard on either end of the court.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Maybe because he was better?  Quick:  match Win Shares to player.  64.3 (15 years), 81.8 (21 years), 86.9 (16 years).
 
 
I know Win Shares isn't the end all and be all but it does give some context.  I daresay that during this time, more than a few people would rather have Dale Davis on their team than either Kevin ("Black Hole") Willis or Derrick Coleman.  That's not to say the other two guys were terrible but to emphasize how good Dale Davis with respect to doing things - other than scoring - to help a team win.

 
Fair point.  He was a good defender and solid rebounder.  Lots of teams would like to have him on the team.  
 
Nonetheless, Derrick Coleman was a terrific player, but could have been an all-time great.  He wasted that talent, IMO.  If the worst Cousins becomes is a 20-11 guy like Coleman, that's a pretty good floor.  The ceiling, of course, is much higher than that.

 

[TroyOLeary]

 
You have to look beyond counting stats.
 
Yes, he scores a lot of points. But Cousins' career shooting percentage is .453, which is really bad for a post up player. (Dwight's is .577.) Cousins scores lots of points because he takes lots of shots. The only bit of good news is that he draws lots of fouls.
 
Cousins racks up a lot of rebounds, but he does so in part because he is using the Kevin Love trick of not playing help defense and instead looking to grab the rebound if the shot misses.
 
I could handle his personality issues if he were a Dwight Howard level center, but Boogie isn't close to Howard on either end of the court.

 
You have to look beyond the career stats.
 
His fg% progression is .430 -> .448 -> .465 -> .492 this year.  He has made significant improvements every year.
 
He is currently 7th in the NBA in PER, 6th in rebound percentage, 9th in steal percentage, 7th in free throw attempts (where he shoots 73.6%).  Among all forwards and centers who've played 25+ minutes per game, he's 5th in assist percentage.

 

[bowiac]

See a trend? Looks to me like Cousins is becoming a more efficient scorer. He'll never be Tim Duncan but he is a gifted scorer. Dwight Howard's percentage is so high because all he can do is dunk and make a few baby hooks. Cousins actually has post moves.

I like Cousins, but we're not giving out style points here, are we?
 
I do really like Cousins however. I mostly believe this improvement isn't just a small sample size fluke, although that is something to be wary of. I'd love to get him for Rondo. I'd also throw in anyone else on the Celtics other than Sullinger.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Here are Demarcus Cousins' shooting percentages by year:
 
2010: 43.0
2011: 44.8
2012: 46.5
2013: 49.2
 
See a trend? Looks to me like Cousins is becoming a more efficient scorer. He'll never be Tim Duncan but he is a gifted scorer. Dwight Howard's percentage is so high because all he can do is dunk and make a few baby hooks. Cousins actually has post moves.

 
And his TS% is a very respectable .552 this year because he gets to the line a lot.  These are not bad numbers at all for a high usage post player that sees a lot of double teams.
 
Cousins has his warts but being unwilling to trade Rondo - a 27-year-old PG who can't shoot coming off knee surgery - for him is ridiculous.

 

[bowiac]

Sadly, I think that's why it's unrealistic.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Sadly, I think that's why it's unrealistic.

 
I think the Cousins talk here started on a false premise: that the Rondo rumor involved Cousins. The most common iteration of that rumor that I saw involved the C's getting back Thomas, McLemore, and picks.

 

[Devizier]

 
I think the Cousins talk here started on a false premise: that the Rondo rumor involved Cousins. The most common iteration of that rumor that I saw involved the C's getting back Thomas, McLemore, and picks.

 
That definitely makes more sense; for one, if the Kings are GFIN with Rondo and Gay, why would they get rid of Cousins?
 
Now, that team will still be thoroughly mediocre, but at least they'll be entertaining.

 

[Devizier]

Well, to be honest, if Sacramento is dumb enough to think that they're going to get better by trading Isaiah Thomas and not getting a three point shooter in return, who knows what they'll entertain.

 

[Kliq]

I'd love to see that trade go down, if only because a team whose three best players are Rondo, Cousins and Gay would be hilariously dysfunctional.
 
What about Asik, Lin, Terrence Jones and a pick or two to Boston for Rondo and Bass? Is the asking price for Rondo too high? Too low?

 

[moly99]

 
You have to look beyond the career stats.
 
His fg% progression is .430 -> .448 -> .465 -> .492 this year.  He has made significant improvements every year.
 
He is currently 7th in the NBA in PER, 6th in rebound percentage, 9th in steal percentage, 7th in free throw attempts (where he shoots 73.6%).  Among all forwards and centers who've played 25+ minutes per game, he's 5th in assist percentage.

 
OK, let me phrase it a different way.
 
The question at hand is how to maximize our value. If we have trade Rondo, Green, etc for future picks, we will likely be bad enough to get a high lottery pick. If we trade our good veterans for guys like Cousins or Asik we will likely make the playoffs and won't get a high lottery pick.
 
So the question is whether Cousins and a low lottery pick are worth more than a top 8 pick this year plus whatever we could get by dealing Rondo. And personally I don't see Boogie as being worth giving up Jabari Parker, Dante Exum, Joel Embiid, etc. He has strengths that correlate to high PER (high usage rate and rebounding) while being bad at a lot of the stuff that doesn't show up in PER (like help defense.)
 
I can understand why people would disagree, though. (Franchise centers are in short supply.)

 

[The X Man Cometh]

Rondo, Bradley, Green, D. Williams, Cousins would be a really fun team to watch. Not that good, mind you, but epically entertaining. Kind of like the Kings of the early part of the 2000s, except with Rondo instead of Bibby, Cousins for Webber, Bradley for Doug Christie, Green for Stojakavic.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'd love to see that trade go down, if only because a team whose three best players are Rondo, Cousins and Gay would be hilariously dysfunctional.
 
What about Asik, Lin, Terrence Jones and a pick or two to Boston for Rondo and Bass? Is the asking price for Rondo too high? Too low?

No team in their right mind wants to pay both posion pills. Also not enough for Rondo in my mind.

 

[Kliq]

I'm just going to throw this out there: I don't want Boogie on my team. Is he talented? Yes. But I don't think that he is talented enough to be the best player on a championship team, and if Cousins goes from being the best player on a team to being usurped by a better player, bad things are going to happen. I don't think he would be very receptive to Stevens and his coaching, and he has shown since he has been drafted that he is a selfish, me-first player. People can always change, but if I was a GM, I would stay far away from Cousins and avoide trying to acquire him unless the price is ridiculosly cheap.

 

[ivanvamp]

I read that the Kings deal would include Isaiah Thomas and Ben McLemore coming back to Boston, along with a pick or two, in exchange for Rondo.  No idea of the validity of that, but it didn't sound like Cousins was actually in the mix.  So running it through the trade machine, a Rondo for McLemore/Thomas deal does not work.  More money would need to come to Boston.  But there isn't a ton of talent there and so I wanted to find which guy was the best fit.  So I included Marcus Thornton, a 6'4" guard.  He is not a particularly good shooter, but in 2010-11 and 2011-12, he did average 21.3 and 18.7 points per game, with decent three-point shooting numbers.  So as a potential second unit scorer, he could have a little value.  
 
Anyway, he's under contract through the end of the 2014-15 season at $8 million, not something I'd want to pay normally, but to swing the deal I'd be willing to do it.
 
Thomas is pretty good, and McLemore is someone with significant upside, IMO.  If they throw in a draft pick, works for me.
 
Do this and the Asik deal, and the C's come out even in draft picks, and essentially trade Bass, Lee, and Rondo for Asik, Thomas, McLemore, and Thornton.  And they'd still have a lot more ammo to make more moves.
 
I'd be fine with that kind of move, I think.

 

[Brickowski]

Why trade a quarter for three nickels? I see no point in dealing Rondo to the Kings unless Cousins comes back, and even then I have serious reservations about Cousins. Of course, if Sacramento threw in its unprotected 2014 first rounder, that would be a completely different story.

 

[lexrageorge]

Because that quarter may go away in 1.5 years giving you nothing in return? If Ainge doesn't view Rondo as part of the long-term solution, then the prudent thing to do is trade him for the best possible package as soon as he re-establishes his value on the court.

I would argue that there may be better opportunities to trade Rondo than the current "quarter for 3 nickels" package.  With the trading deadline still some months away, I'm not sure Ainge needs to rush such a trade. 

 

[Brickowski]

IMHO Mark Jackson would love to have Rondo. Harrison Barnes, Toney Douglas (expiring) and the corpse of Jermaine O'Neal (also expiring) would certainly get it done.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

IMHO Mark Jackson would love to have Rondo. Harrison Barnes, Toney Douglas (expiring) and the corpse of Jermaine O'Neal (also expiring) would certainly get it done.

 
Why do you think he wants to take the ball out of Curry's hands?

 

[The X Man Cometh]

IMHO Mark Jackson would love to have Rondo. Harrison Barnes, Toney Douglas (expiring) and the corpse of Jermaine O'Neal (also expiring) would certainly get it done.

 
I'm not keen on Barnes personally. I don't think he's ever going to grow well into a higher usage role, like the SF I am pining for in the other thread haha.

 

[swingin val]

I doubt GS would trade Barnes straight up for Rondo.

 

[Brickowski]

Why do you think he wants to take the ball out of Curry's hands?

Curry would score more with Rondo passing the ball to him. He'd still get 20-25 shots a game, but many would be better shots that the ones he now creates for himself.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

I doubt GS would trade Barnes straight up for Rondo.

 
It doesn't make sense for either side.
 
With Rondo you need to move Curry off the ball. He's a decent playmaker so that goes to waste, and he's a garbage defender, and that will just get highlighted. So you have to cross match at SG and have Rondo play defense there, which he could do if he committed himself, but who knows. And then you're taking Klay who's a good defender and awesome off the ball player and putting him on the bench. And paying your closest thing to a future top-3 option starter for the privilege to do so.
 
As for Boston, Rondo to Barnes as a 1st option is a serious downgrade to me. Barnes isn't a good facilitator at all, and while he has a good scoring skillset, he will turn over the ball a lot and his efficiency will crater if leaned on.

 

[nighthob]

 
With Rondo you need to move Curry off the ball. He's a decent playmaker so that goes to waste, and he's a garbage defender, and that will just get highlighted. So you have to cross match at SG and have Rondo play defense there, which he could do if he committed himself, but who knows.

 
Actually he can't. When Boston lets him "defend" the 2 opposing SGs usually go off. At 6'1" 180 he doesn't have a lot of ability to slow down bigger players. He just prefers playing FS on the defensive end and doesn't have a lot of interest in man defense. 

 

[Cellar-Door]

Curry would score more with Rondo passing the ball to him. He'd still get 20-25 shots a game, but many would be better shots that the ones he now creates for himself.

So Rondo at the PG, Curry at SG and you move Thompson to SF? Opposing teams might average 160 points per 100 possessions.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

 
Actually he can't. When Boston lets him "defend" the 2 opposing SGs usually go off. At 6'1" 180 he doesn't have a lot of ability to slow down bigger players. He just prefers playing FS on the defensive end and doesn't have a lot of interest in man defense. 

 
Well that's why I threw in the operative "committed himself"... with his length and ability to get around a screen there's no reason he couldn't do it at a passable level.

 

[Blacken]

So Rondo at the PG, Curry at SG and you move Thompson to SF? Opposing teams might average 160 points per 100 possessions.

It's obviously a terrible trade, but if I had to be Mark Jackson and Rondo landed on my roster, Curry splitting time with the bench unit (34-36 minutes, 50/50 starters/bench) and Thompson getting the other half with the starters and off the bench with Curry would probably help their completely-unable-to-dribble-the-ball bench unit. In such a situation you'd get plenty of time for Curry to handle the ball against weaker opposition and spot up against stronger, with Thompson available for spot-ups when Curry's off the floor or the primary ball handler.

I mean, the trade doesn't make sense because Barnes is gonna be really good (probably not All-Star level but really good) and Rondo wouldn't stay there long-term, but there are very hypothetical ways to get them all minutes and be able to do some things.

 

[nighthob]

Well that's why I threw in the operative "committed himself"... with his length and ability to get around a screen there's no reason he couldn't do it at a passable level.

 
I don't think he has any ability at all to defend those 6'5" - 6'7" guys. Boston used him at the 2 with Bradley so that they got defense at one of the guard spots rather than neither of them. (Because Bradley's pretty terrible at defending the 2 as well, despite his length, ability to get around screens and his commitment to defense.)

 

[Ed Hillel]

With Lopez out for the year, it would seem the value may have just gone up, but what would it take to get Atlanta's pick from them this year? I doubt they'd take something centered around Jeff Green, but I'd be willing to send off Rondo as part of a deal to get it back.

 

[moly99]

The problem in trying to think of a trade is that virtually all trading partners are either tanking and don't want to give up their picks or dysfunctional teams with no assets like the Nets and Knicks. Charlotte and Cleveland are the two obvious teams that might want to trade. Maybe New Orleans too. But I can't see teams like Atlanta, Toronto, etc. giving up a pick in a loaded draft for Rondo or Jeff Green unless we trade them for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

[bowiac]

I would imagine Rondo doesn't have much trade value at the moment, until he comes back healthy.
 
Even then, finding a trade partner for Rondo is hard, given most contenders have PGs.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Rondo to Golden State?  Really?  How could that ever happen?  If Rondo is heading west, I see the Lakers as the more likely destination.

 

[nighthob]

With Lopez out for the year, it would seem the value may have just gone up, but what would it take to get Atlanta's pick from them this year? I doubt they'd take something centered around Jeff Green, but I'd be willing to send off Rondo as part of a deal to get it back.

 
Well, it would need to be a three team trade, I suspect, with most everything going back to ATL for that pick. I suppose you could work something along the lines of a three way with Detroit with Monroe going to ATL and the pick to Boston. There'd be more fill, of course, and I'm not sure whether or not it really works out because I would say that a healthy AK-47 has a bigger impact in Brooklyn than Pouffy Lopez, but King certainly fucked the cockatoo here because the foot injury renders Lopez untradeable. Now they're stuck with what they have.

 

[moly99]

Monroe is a really interesting trade target. He is a good player, but I think it is hard to build a functional team around him since he isn't either a rim protector or a stretch 4. You would have to pair him up with a big like Serge Ibaka who at least has a good midrange game and is also a good shot blocker. There aren't a ton of those guys out there.
 
He would be great for the Thunder, actually, if they could dump Perkins and pick him up somehow. They have a 2014 first rounder from Dallas, but Detroit would obviously want a lot more than that.

 

[mcpickl]

With Lopez out for the year, it would seem the value may have just gone up, but what would it take to get Atlanta's pick from them this year? I doubt they'd take something centered around Jeff Green, but I'd be willing to send off Rondo as part of a deal to get it back.

I can't envision a realistic scenario where Danny Ferry, or any GM in the league for that matter, gives up a potential lottery pick in this years draft. Not without heavy protection anyway, in which case you wouldn't be nearly as interested in acquiring it,

 

[nighthob]

Monroe is a really interesting trade target. He is a good player, but I think it is hard to build a functional team around him since he isn't either a rim protector or a stretch 4. You would have to pair him up with a big like Serge Ibaka who at least has a good midrange game and is also a good shot blocker. There aren't a ton of those guys out there.
 
He would be great for the Thunder, actually, if they could dump Perkins and pick him up somehow. They have a 2014 first rounder from Dallas, but Detroit would obviously want a lot more than that.

 
I don't think you can build a team around him. He's a complementary player at best, and he needs to play C because he's too slow to be your primary helpside defender. However he'd give the Hawks the best 4/5 rotation around as he could play with either of their guys.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

https://twitter.com/Murf56/status/415164137002377217
 
Terrence Williams to Boston again?

Color me intrigued. Can handle the ball, and is athletic to run up and down the court. Showed some slashing ability last time he was here. Also a good cross-match with Bradley (he can play the point on offense and guard the SG on defense)

Obviously we need shooting and he isn't a shooter, but I like his fit on this team.

 

[Blacken]

Not a long-term piece (unless Stevens has more magic in him), but at least he'd be fun back in Boston.

(I actually kind of hate The Legend of Brad Stevens now for making me think he can make every misfit toy into Jordan Crawford. I don't even think he made Jordan Crawford into Jordan Crawford and I still reflexively go "oh, but Stevens...".)

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I enjoyed the T-Will era in boston.  I think he's better than most people give him credit for, he's definitely a rotation guy in my eyes for a decent NBA team.

 

[Devizier]

I wonder if the Celtics can get one of Cleveland's draft picks in a Bynum deal. Chris Grant wants an expiring, so maybe he'll fall for Kardashian?
 
The Celtics can attach Crawford and his through-November scouting tape for enticement.

 

[soxhop411]

“@ESPNSteinLine: Boston Celtics, I'm told, are in advanced discussions on a trade to acquire Jerryd Bayles from Memphis in a deal involving Courtney Lee”

https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/419956642696818688

 

[bowiac]

Uh, ok. Cash dump I assume?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Uh, ok. Cash dump I assume?

Yup. Bayless is a FA at season's end.

 

[radsoxfan]

Bayless is having an awful year, but is an expiring contract, so that would be a nice trade assuming we don't have to throw in any picks.

Getting rid of Lee without taking a bad contract back or giving up a pick is a victory.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Can't be straight up, doesn't work salary wise. Best case for Boston would be Lee for Bayless and Franklin I think.