Trading Chips and Keepers

Grin&MartyBarret

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thehitcat said:
Bass only I think because while he might want to deal Green the offers will either be not enough talent wise in Danny's eyes or they'll be pure salary dumps (Green and Wallace for a conditional 2nd in 2020 for example) and Danny won't want to do that.  Also I think Humphries sticks unless he gets a good offer for him because I can see Danny signing him again for 1 more year at a similar salary to his current in order to hang onto the slot (which he doesn't need this summer but might at the end of 2014-15.)
 
How many teams have a) 18 million dollars in cap space right now, or b) 18 million in expiring contracts to give back?
 

nighthob

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As Boston can't possibly get far enough under the luxury tax line to sign James or Bosh why would they even be trying? They're a large market team, there's an advantage to maintaining a high payroll that's below the luxury tax line. Wallace isn't going anywhere and Green isn't either unless there's a real talent fit available. Humphries might go, but if he does it's likely as part of a deal to keep next year's payroll in the 60+ million range. Now Bass might go, but it's apparently because he has real value around the league.
 

The X Man Cometh

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nighthob said:
As Boston can't possibly get far enough under the luxury tax line to sign James or Bosh why would they even be trying? They're a large market team, there's an advantage to maintaining a high payroll that's below the luxury tax line. Wallace isn't going anywhere and Green isn't either unless there's a real talent fit available. Humphries might go, but if he does it's likely as part of a deal to keep next year's payroll in the 60+ million range. Now Bass might go, but it's apparently because he has real value around the league.
 
YES!

I don't see the point of shedding salary. What are we going to do with the cap space we get from "shedding" Wallace and Green? Sign Gordon Hayward?

FA is a terrible value for 
 
As for Bass having real value, IMO he'll have even more value to contenders next year when there's one year left on his deal so we should be patient and shop him then.
 

Major Offense

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Unlikely scenario, but is it possible Hump, Bogans, and maybe a first get sent out to a team looking to tank/rebuild in return for an A-/B+ star (an Al Jefferson-type)? Maybe that's more likely after the season when teams are ready to give up on players they pinned their hopes on previously.
 

wutang112878

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The X Man Cometh said:
 
I don't see the point of shedding salary. What are we going to do with the cap space we get from "shedding" Wallace and Green? Sign Gordon Hayward?
 
 
 
Its the same reason we gave Bogans the $5M gift in salary, it facilitated a trade but it also gave us an expiring.  If you get under the cap by $9M you can take on $9M extra in salary in a trade.  You can create value that way, especially if all the players you have under big contract deals arent especially valuable and ours arent.  Its the same reason we got all the NJ picks for taking on Wallace, because the Nets needed to shed salary.  You can gain assets by facilitating salary shedding, and cap space is a way to do that.
 
Also, the cap space isnt just for this year, its thinking of years down the road when we might be in a position to sign or trade for a real impact player.
 

Devizier

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I think a decent quality expiring player is worth a lot less than one with a year remaining. With the year left, the acquiring team can work Bass into their system over the offseason without taking on the risk of signing him to another multi year contract. The time to deal him is now.
 

Major Offense

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Devizier said:
I think a decent quality expiring player is worth a lot less than one with a year remaining. With the year left, the acquiring team can work Bass into their system over the offseason without taking on the risk of signing him to another multi year contract. The time to deal him is now.
I see that with a guy like Bass, who is more likely to go to a team that wants to add depth, rather than a team focused on cap and tax issues. Definitely disappointing if your team gives up something decent in a trade just to get a guy for a few months. The exception being if you get better terms to sign a guy afterwards (i.e. max contract rules, which clearly wouldn't apply to Bass).
 

Brickowski

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I haven't seen a single rumored deal (or even destination) that makes sense for any Celtics player. Bass to Golden State? For what? The Warriors don't have a pick this year and basically have nothing useful to give back. Speights (who is having a poor year and has a long contract)? Ezeli? Kuzmic? Hell, Colton Iverson is probably better than those guys.
If Portland wanted Bass, they at least have some young players who might interest Ainge, e.g. Leonard or McCollum.

Ainge is under no compulsion to make a trade unless the offer is really good. The tank is proceeding reasonably well (25-30 wins looks about right, just as Vegas predicted), the Celtics have 17M (at least) coming off the books in June, the youngsters are getting some experience and Ainge has six first rounders in the next three drafts.
 

nighthob

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The X Man Cometh said:
YES!

I don't see the point of shedding salary. What are we going to do with the cap space we get from "shedding" Wallace and Green? Sign Gordon Hayward?

FA is a terrible value for
Well, if there were any chance of getting a completely clean cap then sure, you take your shot at James, Bosh or Anthony and hope for the best. But they won't be able to do that and you're going to have to max Hayward for even a chance at convincing Utah not to match, and maxing average/above average guys doesn't really work out very well.
 

Brickowski

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Why would anyone want a shot at Anthony? I'd rather have Gerald Wallace.

So long as they are in full tank mode, Gerald Wallace is an asset. Why give up anything to get rid of him? Just let the contract play out. He's not causing any dissention. If anything, his candor has been good for the young players. It's usually better to hear difficult truths from a teammate than it is from a coach.

LeBron James isn't coming to Boston so I see no reason to clear even more cap space now. Kevin Love isn't coming either.


Meahwhile, in the Summer of 2015 the Celtics will be roughly 15-20M below the cap, and in 2016 they currently have ZERO dollars of committed salary unless they extend Rondo. Obviously they'll have to pay their first round picks and they have to make decisions on Sullinger and Olynyk, but even so their payroll will be way below the 90% floor.
 

Sprowl

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The Sporting News hears rumors of Bass going to Charlotte (for Portland's 2014 #1), Phoenix (for one or more of the Suns' 4 2014 draft picks) or Golden State (for unspellable but otherwise nondescript rookies).
 

nighthob

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ivanvamp said:
Ok.  So…….what's your plan for the Celtics then?  I think getting a top 3 player (HOPEFULLY!! - that has to be everyone here's wish) and then adding a superstar (there just aren't that many out there that are available) gives the C's three potential stars.  You build around that.
 
But I'm cool if people don't want Kevin Love and his 25 points and 13 and a half rebounds a game.  Just give me what your plan is.
Well, while not wild about the idea, I think Boston is going to make a run at Anthony this summer. If Anthony re-ups then the Rondo era is closing because that means that he'll be joining 'Melo in New York after he hits free agency.

You really can't have a master plan because, at the moment, there are no superstars available that are likely to stay, and just stocking up on roleplayers gets you nowhere. Maybe Kyrie Irving comes on the market (because the scuttlebutt at the moment is that he hates the Cadavaliers' management) in the next few years, maybe Westbrook. No one knows at the moment. But you can't blow your entire cache of draft picks on an impending free agent because that's how you get Dwightmared.
 

Brickowski

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Like who though?
Who knows? Olynyk if he gets into some serious weight lifting. Embiid (if the ping pong balls are very kind). Greg Monroe. Larry Sanders (out for the season after last night's injury). Some Croatian or Chinese guy you've never heard of. One way or the other, they have to find one.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Next summer is the year to really make things happen, I think. Books will be mostly clear pending the Rondo decision. Wallace with only one year left will be much easier to move. Further development for Sullinger and hopefully Olynyk plus a year in the books for this year's picks, and the big surplus of picks still in the bank.
 

Devizier

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Anyways, we should be talking about the Celtics' trading chips and keepers, none of whom are even close to as good as Kevin Love, as it stands currently.
 
I'm waiting on the inevitable "Brandon Bass for uninspiring return" deal.
 

Curtis Pride

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[tablegrid= Current Celtics Roster and Salaries ]Player Pos. Depth PER OffWS DefWS WS/48 Age Salary Years Additional Notes Jeff Green SF 1 13.7 1.1 1.5 0.069 27 17,900,000 2 plus player option Brandon Bass PF 1 15.1 2.1 1.6 0.118 28 13,350,000 2   Jared Sullinger C 1 17.1 1.5 1.6 0.104 21 2,790,240 2 plus team option and qualifying offer Avery Bradley SG 1 12.3 0.0 1.2 0.041 23 2,511,432 1 plus qualifying offer Rajon Rondo PG 1 16.1 0.0 0.4 0.068 27 24,863,636 2   Gerald Wallace SF 2 9.9 -0.3 1.5 0.046 31 30,317,565 3   Kelly Olynyk PF 2 12.7 0.3 0.9 0.072 22 4,062,120 2 plus 2 team options and qualifying offer Kris Humphries C 2 17.9 1.5 1.3 0.153 29 12,000,000 1   Jerryd Bayless SG 2 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.061 33 3,135,000 1   Phil Pressey PG 2 7.0 -0.9 0.7 -0.011 22 490,180 1   Chris Johnson SF 3 13.9 0.5 0.2 0.147 23 320,000 1 plus 3 team options Vitor Faverani C 3 11.3 -0.3 0.7 0.041 25 2,000,000 1   Keith Bogans SF 4 10.0 0.1 0.0 0.129 33 5,058,198 1   Joel Anthony C 4 6.8 0.0 0.0 -0.015 31 3,800,000 1 plus player option [/tablegrid]
 
Sources: Player's position, depth, and age: ESPN.com; Player's PER, OffWS, DefWS, WS/48: BasketballReference.com; Player's salary, length, and options: HoopsHype.com
 
I put together this table to help assess who would be trade chips and who would be keepers. Salary is guaranteed money only. Years include the current season, so a length of 1 would mean free agency at the end of the season if the option is not exercised. I used PER for overall contribution, Offensive and Defensive Win Shares for cumulative contribution to each side, and Win Shares per 48 minutes to account for playing time.
 
My preliminary observations are that Sullinger is a keeper, and Humphries may be our best trade chip. Also, according to the stats I selected, Kris Humphries is the Celtics' best player.
 

Major Offense

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Jumping off of Curtis Pride's chart (very useful stuff, by the way), I started to wonder which players will decrease in value and which will increase in value as trading chips if they are held onto until after the season ends.
 
I see four categories, with the takeaway that the team may be in better position to make a big deal this summer, rather than now.  They have a handful of players that might be worth an overpay for a contending team now, but I think a lot of the roster will be more tradeable/valuable this summer.
 
1. Losing some value over time because a contender may overpay for their help now: Sullinger, Bass, Humphries, Bradley (unless there's some value to him as a restricted free agent in the offseason that I don't know about)
 
2. Gain some value over time as their contract runs down: Wallace, Anthony, Green (for those who believe he is overpaid, otherwise he could go in category 1)
 
3. Gain some value over time because they develop their game: Faverani, Pressey, Johnson (who can't be traded, anyway), Olynyk (arguably he could be in category 1, as well)
 
4. Unclear, for various reasons: Bogans (possible a tanker would use him to dump a decent mid-level player now?), Bayless (his change in value may depend on how he plays the rest of the year), Rondo (has he shown enough to prove he's recovered from injury, or would he be worth more after getting to full strength over the rest of the season?)
 
Edited to include Johnson's trade limit
 

Major Offense

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Oh, and since this is a chips vs keepers thread, I think it shakes out like this over the next few years:

Keeping Rondo, Sully, Olynyk, Green, Bradley only if they can get him cheap

Trading/letting walk: Hump (maybe even as a s&t this summer), Bass, Bogans, Anthony and Wallace

Holding unless they are needed to make numbers match in a deal: Favs, Johnson, one of Pressey and Bayless

Presumably drafting makes some guys redundant, as well, but for now, that's my best guess. Green I see as a keeper mostly based on trade rumors that Danny wants too much in return, and Rondo because they like him and he's still an all-star - I doubt you upgrade that through free agency or by trading him.
 

nighthob

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Boston won't have a choice with Rondo. Either they convince Rondo and Anthony to team up here or it's likely that they're teaming up in New York.
 

Major Offense

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nighthob said:
Boston won't have a choice with Rondo. Either they convince Rondo and Anthony to team up here or it's likely that they're teaming up in New York.
Probably not the thread for this question, but how does that work with the Knicks in for $90 million plus in salary next season (depending on whether Melo takes a paycut to come back)? Would it be a sign and trade? I'm sure there's a way, since he's supposedly lobbying Rondo to join him there, I just wasn't clear on how it actually can be done.

Edited for typographical errors
 

Brickowski

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Probably not the thread for this question, but how does that work with the Knicks in for $90 million plus in salary next season (depending on whether Melo takes a paycut to come back)? Would it be a sign and trade? I'm sure there's a way, since he's supposedly lobbying Rondo to join him there, I just wasn't clear on how it actually can be done.

Edited for typographical errors
I'm guessing it would take a third team willing to take on Chandler or Stoudamire and to send something nice back the Celtics' way. But that third team would probably have to have a dumb GM.
 

Major Offense

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Grin&MartyBarret said:
Or, the Knicks can just sign Rondo outright when he reaches free agency.
Totally - for some reason I was thinking this offseason. The Knicks could wait out one more year of basically the same crew with the promise of some aggressive shopping in the Rondo-Love FA year. Point well taken, Nighthob.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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BigSoxFan said:
We'll see if the Knicks still have cap space to do that after next season. Right now, they don't have much on the books for 2015-2016 but they're going to face a lot of pressure this offseason to make changes and I could see them exchanging shorter deals of Amare, Bargnani, Chandler, etc. for guys on longer deals.
 
In my mind, the talk of Carmelo taking less to build a contender basically confirms that they intend to re-build through free agency. It's been the Knicks MO forever, and it's not at all a coincidence that they structured the Chandler, Amare, Carmelo (and traded for Bargnani whose deal expires at the same time) deals to all expire simultaneously. If they can turn any of those expiring deals coupled with Hardway Jr. etc. into one of the FA targets, then maybe they'll move on the plan earlier, but I don't think they'll settle for lower caliber players. Carmelo likely has been let in on the plan, and if he agrees to it, I doubt they'll deviate from it just to improve a year early.
 

Devizier

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I could see the Knicks trying to offer the Amare-Hardaway-all of their remaining draft picks package for Rondo and Wallace. Depending on the picks, I'd give it consideration.
 

ivanvamp

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Devizier said:
I could see the Knicks trying to offer the Amare-Hardaway-all of their remaining draft picks package for Rondo and Wallace. Depending on the picks, I'd give it consideration.
 
I just looked here (http://www.nbadraft.net/2014mock_draft) and I don't see a single pick that the Knicks have for 2014.  So are you thinking 2015 picks?
 

Brickowski

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Do you think that Ainge is so dumb that he will let Rondo go for nothing? If Ainge thinks Rondo's statement about being intrigued by free agency is something more than a negotiating ploy, Rajon will likely be gone by draft night at the latest.

As for the Knicks, they traded both their 2014 and 2016 first rounders to Denver, so they cannot trade their 2015 first round pick. The earliest first rounder they have to trade is 2018 (unless they acquire another one in the interim).

It's all here: http://www1.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
 

ivanvamp

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Ok thanks guys.  Then I don't know why Ainge would be remotely interested in the trade that Devizier suggested above.  
 

nighthob

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Major Offense said:
Probably not the thread for this question, but how does that work with the Knicks in for $90 million plus in salary next season (depending on whether Melo takes a paycut to come back)? Would it be a sign and trade? I'm sure there's a way, since he's supposedly lobbying Rondo to join him there, I just wasn't clear on how it actually can be done.

Edited for typographical errors
Rondo is a free agent in the summer of 2015 and the Knicks will be under the cap then.

The Knicks can swap picks in 2015 and 2017, so there is that (EDIT: so it would be a swap of the Clippers 2015#1 for New York's, the Knicks would need to come up with another 1st for Shumpert and package all that with their own 2018 pick)). I'd still like to see them get involved in a three way deal with LA & Phoenix. I know the Suns don't want to offer up a good pick to their divisional competition, but they might soften their stance if the deal involves LA moving their #1 to Boston. Roughly I'm thinking something along the lines of Gashole/whatever to the Suns, Rondo/Kardashian/Olynyk/lowest #1 (probably the Brooklyn pick) to LA, Okafor/Nash/LA#1/Wash or Min. #1 to Boston.
 

Koufax

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I'm surprised to find myself saying this, but Kelly Olynyk might be a keeper after all.  Too early to tell yet, but he's going to stick in the NBA somewhere.  He's pretty coordinated, if still a bit weak for the position, and he's definitely showing some talent lately.   
 

Brickowski

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According to RealGM Chris Babb is getting a multi-year deal with team options for future years (probably similar to what Chris Johnson got).  Presumably they were able to do this without going over the luxury tax threshold for 2013-14.
 

04101Seadog

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Best I've seen on the Babb deal is that it's quite close to what Johnson got, and when it's all said and done we will be about $600K under the cap. Basically gives him the ability to compete in camp or be trade bait.
 

Brickowski

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04101Seadog said:
Best I've seen on the Babb deal is that it's quite close to what Johnson got, and when it's all said and done we will be about $600K under the cap. Basically gives him the ability to compete in camp or be trade bait.
Or just get cut if he doesn't play well, since the future years are reportedly non-guaranteed.