The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

rymflaherty

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As a Bulls fan, if thisnis leading to a Butler trade, I'm going to be pissed that the Bulls didn't just trade for the #1 pick to get Fultz.
 

Ale Xander

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Probably not. Though there is a decent case to be made that Butler sneaks into the back end of the top 10 right now.
Honestly I really like a Hayward/Butler 2/3 situation, both strong 2 way guys with complementary offensive skills. And it likely means not maxing IT which is a terrible idea.
I like Butler a lot more if he's paired with GH over someone like Crowder, I definitely agree there. But you need both a rebounder and a shot blocker to compete for a title and you still don't have that.
 

TroyOLeary

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The #1 protection next year destroys any possible future-value play to me. It's going to come down to this year's pick. If Fultz is truly the consensus #1 it's a disaster of a trade. I hate this.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think your odds are off significantly. I'd peg that Sac pick at 80% odds of top 5 where we sit today. The protections only increase the odds we get a top 5 pick in the next two years.
Sacto is an easy pick for worst near future team. It's just going to suck waiting two years for it when the Lakers finish like 7th next season.
 

djbayko

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The #1 protection next year destroys any possible future-value play to me. It's going to come down to this year's pick. If Fultz is truly the consensus #1 it's a disaster of a trade. I hate this.
I understand not loving the trade, but the #1 protection kills it for you? If the ping pong balls give us #2 in a strong draft next year, it's no good?

It sounds like we're likely trading the pick anyways.
 

Ed Hillel

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Sacto is an easy pick for worst near future team. It's just going to suck waiting two years for it when the Lakers finish like 7th next season.
Waiting is no fun, but if the window opens in 2020, a top pick in 2019 sounds good to me.

Of course, if this all gets traded for Butler...
 

Cellar-Door

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I like Butler a lot more if he's paired with GH over someone like Crowder, I definitely agree there. But you need both a rebounder and a shot blocker to compete for a title and you still don't have that.
They still have picks, exceptions to fill spots, but I would guess that they are hoping Zizic and eventually Yabusele are going to bring rebounding. Zizic could potentially be a shotblocker as well, though I don't think you really need a shotblocker, neither CLE nor GS really has one and they won the last 3 titles.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think your odds are off significantly. I'd peg that Sac pick at 80% odds of top 5 where we sit today. The protections only increase the odds we get a top 5 pick in the next two years.
Someone will run the numbers---my concern is that with the lottery there's a reasonable chance Sacto drops out of top 5 even if they are really bad.

Though, if they are worst in league they can't drop below 4 so there's that...
 

Cellar-Door

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The #1 protection next year destroys any possible future-value play to me. It's going to come down to this year's pick. If Fultz is truly the consensus #1 it's a disaster of a trade. I hate this.
Curious why you would say that? There is no consensus #1 next year going into the season, but there are 3-4 excellent prospects, maybe 5 depending who you talk to. There is a real chance they get a player as good as Fultz with that pick if it falls 2-5. In addition to a player nearly as good as Fultz this year.
I mean we just had a whole discussion about where Fultz falls as a prospect vs 3 guys from next year (I had him 1 because I like guys I have more information of, but others had Fultz 3rd or lower)

Edit- it's also not just on here, I know Kevin O'Connor who is a pretty good draft talent evaluator says he likes the top of next year's draft more than this one.
 

Sprowl

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So what is the protection likely to be? I'm thinking something like:

Philly keeps the pick if it is #1, or if it is #6 or lower; otherwise the Celtics get another high pick in the 2018 draft.

If Philly keeps the LA pick, then the 2019 Sacramento pick goes to the Celtics, without any restrictions.
 

Ale Xander

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I understand not loving the trade, but the #1 protection kills it for you? If the ping pong balls give us #2 in a strong draft next year, it's no good?

It sounds like we're likely trading the pick anyways.
Who went #2 in Duncan and Lebron years, I don't remember
 

TroyOLeary

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Jul 22, 2005
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I understand not loving the trade, but the #1 protection kills it for you? If the ping pong balls give us #2 in a strong draft next year, it's no good?

It sounds like we're likely trading the pick anyways.
Personally I think it's way too early to say the draft is strong. Keeping the number 1 pick alive at least takes into account the possibility that a clearly dominant consensus #1 emerges (e.g. Doncic).
 

mcpickl

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Who went #2 in Duncan and Lebron years, I don't remember
Carmelo, Wade and Bosh went 3-4-5 in Lebron year? Is that good?

I'm with most here I'd be surprised if they pick at #3 now. Would be wild to make this deal ahead of time and hope LA passes on your guy. Either moving for a veteran, or moving down even further to #5 or something.
 

Ed Hillel

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Who went #2 in Duncan and Lebron years, I don't remember
The LeBron comment is silly, given who went 3-5 that year:

Wade
Melo
Bosh

Billups went 3 behind Duncan, though some asshole traded him.

Fultz is not on par as a prospect to Duncan or LeBron. He's much more in Wiggins' class.
As far as prospect hype, I don't think Fultz approaches Wiggins. Wiggins was the biggest prospect since LeBron.
 

mcpickl

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This is batshit insane. They already tried trading smaller pieces for a bigger piece, so what's different besides Butler being a year older and closer to free agency?
I think he's saying the Celtics wouldn't give up #1 in a deal for a veteran. But trade #3 for that veteran while adding another likely high lottery pick is much more palatable.
 

djbayko

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Who went #2 in Duncan and Lebron years, I don't remember
Who went #2 in the Oden year? I don't remember.

We can go back and forth on this. I'm saying if next year's draft turns out to be as deep as people think it will, then #2 is great. Plus we have the Nets pick.

And there's a trade coming anyways, so arguing over the pick protection is probably for naught.
 

Kull

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This is batshit insane. They already tried trading smaller pieces for a bigger piece, so what's different besides Butler being a year older and closer to free agency?
Possibly it means the asking price for Butler is a top-5 1st round pick plus good player and by making this trade the Celts can still do that by subbing in either this year's #3 or next year's Lakers pick.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
The opposite of what we have all wanted to happen each draft night for the past four years. Makes me sick to my stomach.

BUT, if Danny has Jackson/Tatum/Fox above Fultz then it is highway robbery no matter what he gets.

People need to get off the rim protecter and rebounder vision quest. This front office and coaching staff, most the NBA for that matter, do not care any longer.

When does the number of vets vs in experienced rookies come under scrutiny here?

Porter/Alton/Doncic 2018 I guess it is.... please stink Lakers and Nets. (Doubt they are worse than the Suns and Magic)
 

BigSoxFan

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Carmelo, Wade and Bosh went 3-4-5 in Lebron year? Is that good?

I'm with most here I'd be surprised if they pick at #3 now. Would be wild to make this deal ahead of time and hope LA passes on your guy. Either moving for a veteran, or moving down even further to #5 or something.
Are we to believe that Chicago wouldn't have traded a 28 year-old Butler for Fultz? This doesn't make sense to me. I certainly hope we keep this year's pick.
 

bowiac

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Sacramento had the 8th worst record this year. I appreciate there's a Boogie trade in there, and they're poorly run, but 80% of them being in the top 5 in two years seems high to me, before even getting into the actual ping pong balls.
 

mcpickl

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Are we to believe that Chicago wouldn't have traded a 28 year-old Butler for Fultz? This doesn't make sense to me. I certainly hope we keep this year's pick.
No. We're to believe the Celtics wouldn't trade Fultz for a 28 year old Butler. Therefore, you move down to #3 to trade for Butler, or whoever, and keep some value for yourself.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Danny can't be banking on getting Jackson as he might not be around. There's been a solid group of evaluators who don't believe there's a huge difference between 1-4.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cs end up with DSJ or Tatum or Fox.

But god, if DA ends up with Ball, I think DA will have made the biggest mistake of his life. Bigger than biting Tree Rollins.
 

Cellar-Door

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The LeBron comment is silly, given who went 3-5 that year:

Wade
Melo
Bosh

Billups went 3 behind Duncan, though some asshole traded him.
Also McGrady in Duncan's year.
Plus it's dumb anyway to pick 2 drafts in the last 20 years with clear cut #1s that everyone by the previous draft already knew were going 1.

Just looking at the last 10 drafts, #2 gave you a shot at:
2007- Durant Horford
2008- Westbrook, Love
2009- Harden, Curry
2010- Cousins, Hayward, George
2011- Kawhi, Klay
2012- Lillard, Beal
2013- This Draft blew, but the worst player in it went #1
2014- Embiid, Parker,
2015- Prozingis, Russell

So yeah... it turns out that every draft does in fact usually have more than 1 good player in it.
 

moly99

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Who went #2 in Duncan and Lebron years, I don't remember
Fultz isn't Duncan or Lebron. It is silly to criticize the idea of trading down. Where fans have a right to disagree is on the details.

If the Nets get the #1 pick and the Lakers get the #2 pick next year we should win big. But it seems just as likely that the Nets gets the #4 pick next year and we will receive a 5-8 pick from the Kings in 2019.
 

Ed Hillel

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Sacramento had the 8th worst record this year. I appreciate there's a Boogie trade in there, and they're poorly run, but 80% of them being in the top 5 in two years seems high to me, before even getting into the actual ping pong balls.
80% is probably high, but I think projecting them 75ish percent for bottom 3 team in 2018 is fair (reasonable minds can differ here, of course), which puts their top 5 odds at something like 65 percent. Then you factor in odds LA is 2-5 next season and we're well above the 50% likelihood overall.
 

shawnrbu

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The LeBron comment is silly, given who went 3-5 that year:
As far as prospect hype, I don't think Fultz approaches Wiggins. Wiggins was the biggest prospect since LeBron.
I'd say Oden has been the biggest prospect since LeBron. The hype for Oden was insane before he even played at Ohio State. Wiggins probably got the most hype aside from Oden when you look at it as the hype starting before they even played a game in college.
 

BigSoxFan

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No. We're to believe the Celtics wouldn't trade Fultz for a 28 year old Butler. Therefore, you move down to #3 to trade for Butler, or whoever, and keep some value for yourself.
What value are we keeping? It's going to take more than #3 to get Butler or a comparable player.
 

Kull

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From a cap perspective, what happens if the Celts don't have ANY first round pick in 2017? Assuming they trade #3 and player x for Butler (keeping the Laker pick), presumably there isn't as much scorched earth necessary to sign Hayward?

Edit: Although the Laker/Sac option makes more sense for Chicago. Trade Butler and then tank like hell with a shot at 3 high picks in the next two years. They aren't going anywhere, with or without Butler.
 
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luckiestman

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Can we have an identifier in this thread if the poster lost their mind because the Cs passed on Dunn last year and drafted Brown. Since I don't watch NCAAB, I need some other metric for who to pay attention to.
 

Cellar-Door

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We wouldn't be trading down if Fultz was our #1? Or does Danny just think Jackson/Tatum + one more pick > Fultz?
I don't think that was supposed to be seen as a "these guys in this order" but rather a tier of 4 guys who they had as above the rest of the draft.
 

mcpickl

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What value are we keeping? It's going to take more than #3 to get Butler or a comparable player.
You're keeping the difference between #1 and #3. Say team X (just because I don't think it's necessarily Butler) wanted Bradley, Crowder and #1. The Celtics say eff you. But counter with, would you accept Bradley, Crowder and #3 if we can get it? If they agree to that, which is what we're theorizing in this scenario, Boston saves the value of the Lakers pick next year.