The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

DJnVa

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The only other option is flipping with Lakers, but I don't think that's actually realistic.

I think it's 100% Fultz.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Fultz is the consensus top rated guy, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's Ainge's top rated guy.

If Ainge wants to make a pick here (which seems likely), he'll get his guy. Probably Fultz but it would not shock me if it is someone else. Is there a Parish/McHale combo out there?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Fultz is the consensus top rated guy, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's Ainge's top rated guy.

If Ainge wants to make a pick here (which seems likely), he'll get his guy. Probably Fultz but it would not shock me if it is someone else. Is there a Parish/McHale combo out there?
The McHale half of that would have to be Zach Collins, I bet. I think a gutsy GM could have him as the top guy in this draft (as McHale turned out to be in his).

You could no doubt get Okafor and 3 for Fultz:banana:
 

chilidawg

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The McHale half of that would have to be Zach Collins, I bet. I think a gutsy GM could have him as the top guy in this draft (as McHale turned out to be in his).

You could no doubt get Okafor and 3 for Fultz:banana:
I like Jarrett Allen as the Parish half. We need a scorer though more than two young bigs.

I'm probably in the minority, but I wasn't impressed enough with Fultz when I saw him play to see him as a clear #1. Both Ball and Jackson have more flaws, but to my eye more high end skills than Fultz.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The only guy I can see the C's trading this pick for is a guy who's name has not surfaced in trade rumors. It won't be for George, who is almost certainly heading home, possibly as soon as this summer via trade or Butler.

No, it will have to be another young transformational player trapped on a team that is unable to add talent around him. And the team will need to get the pick plus a few of the C's non-Thomas, or Horford starters or rotation guys.
 

amfox1

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Danny's options, on initial reflection:

Pick Fultz
Trade #1 to CHI for Butler (18.7mm salary for 17-18, contract through 18-19 with a player option for 19-20)
Trade #1 to IND for George (19.5mm salary for 17-18, with a player option for 18-19)
Trade #1 to PHI for #3 and Saric (2.4mm salary for 17-18, with control through 19-20) (BOS then picks Jackson or Tatum)
Trade players and one or both 2018 first round picks (but not this year's #1) for Butler, George or other players

17-18 guaranteed contracts (61.8mm total):

27.7 Horford
8.8 Bradley (FA after 17-18)
6.8 Crowder
6.3 Thomas (FA after 17-18)
5.0 Brown
4.5 Smart (FA after 17-18)
2.0 Rozier
0.7 Jackson (guaranteed portion of contract only)

Cap holds (37.1mm total):

15.6 Johnson
9.5 Jerebko
7.7 Olynyk
2.8 Young
1.5 Green

Assumes Zeller & Mickey options are declined and DJax is waived.

Salary cap is 103mm. Luxury tax is 123mm. If the rights to all free agents but Olynyk are immediately renounced on July 1, the Celtics would have 33.5mm of room under the cap with 7 players under contract, less cap holds of approx 7.0mm for the #1 pick (note 17-18 slots have not been announced), 2.25mm for Yabusele, 1.65mm for Zizic and approx 0.8mm to fill out the 12-man roster, based on minimum salary requirements.

That would leave approx. 21.8mm to sign a free agent (Hayward, I presume) or trade for Butler/George. Renouncing Olynyk would get them to 29.5mm, slightly under max room (30.6mm). Actually signing the #1 pick, Yabusele and/or Zizic frees up more room because the cap holds are based on 120% of slot.

Obviously, they could trade one of the 7 players under contract or get Yabusele to agree to stay overseas for another year to free up more room.
 
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JCizzle

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Ainge would hang up on 3 and Okafor and die of laughter. That's horrible. Okafor has no real place in today's game since he's so bad on defense and has no range.

Edit. My bad on missing the joke ha
 

west12

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Fultz is the consensus top rated guy, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's Ainge's top rated guy.

If Ainge wants to make a pick here (which seems likely), he'll get his guy. Probably Fultz but it would not shock me if it is someone else. Is there a Parish/McHale combo out there?
The closest thing I can imagine is Aaron Gordon and Orlando's number 5 pick for number 1. But I'm not sure it's worth it.
 

HurstSoGood

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Not sure what Danny will do. I know Fultz is skilled, but I'm not sold on the "consensus #1" designation.
My question is how "good" can a potential #1 pick be when his team went 9-22 (2-16 in the PAC)?

And a follow-up, if I may: Has there ever been a #1 pick with a worse college record? Olowokandi at Pacific is the only non-Euro, non-HS player that comes to mind.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fultz is the consensus top rated guy, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's Ainge's top rated guy.

If Ainge wants to make a pick here (which seems likely), he'll get his guy. Probably Fultz but it would not shock me if it is someone else. Is there a Parish/McHale combo out there?
There's no one else.
 

amfox1

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Ainge would hang up on 3 and Okafor and die of laughter. That's horrible. Okafor has no real place in today's game since he's so bad on defense and has no range.
I've been thinking about a PHI-BOS trade since the lottery ended, although I really like Fultz and think he's the best player by far in this class.

I would think the trade looks like #1 + Young (for salary purposes) for Saric, #3 and a future (lottery-protected) 1st round pick.

I think PHI is going to pay Lowry the max (4/$152mm) and draft Jackson.
 

amfox1

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Not sure what Danny will do. I know Fultz is skilled, but I'm not sold on the "consensus #1" designation.
My question is how "good" can a potential #1 pick be when his team went 9-22 (2-16 in the PAC)?

And a follow-up, if I may: Has there ever been a #1 pick with a worse college record? Olowokandi at Pacific is the only non-Euro, non-HS player that comes to mind.
Obviously, you did not watch them.

Wash. had no frontcourt at all. They had Fultz and a shooting guard and that was just about it, talent-wise.
 

JCizzle

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How could you tell, was it the dancing banana? I bet it was the dancing banana.

I think Danny keeps the pick, moves AB and Crowder and gets Hayward.
Crowder's contract almost makes him unreadable because it's so good. He's making like $7M/year through the 19-20 season.
 

HurstSoGood

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That's truth @amfox1.
I have only seen some youtube videos and draft highlight montages. It sounds like he has done well with AAU and Jr. World's(?) - and rose to the occasion with better competition and stronger teammates than @ U-Dub. I'm interested in catching up on Fultz's backstory (why UW?).
Cautiously optimistic, then? A lot of guys here (who are far, far smarter than I am on this topic) seem to be really high on him.

I would rather root for Fultz than the Family Wrecking Ball.
 

mauf

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I'll be shocked if Danny does anything other than keep the pick and draft Fultz.

The #1 pick has been traded after the draft lottery twice, by teams that already had Shaquille O'Neal and LeBron James.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That's truth @amfox1.
I have only seen some youtube videos and draft highlight montages. It sounds like he has done well with AAU and Jr. World's(?) - and rose to the occasion with better competition and stronger teammates than @ U-Dub. I'm interested in catching up on Fultz's backstory (why UW?).
Cautiously optimistic, then? A lot of guys here (who are far, far smarter than I am on this topic) seem to be really high on him.

I would rather root for Fultz than the Family Wrecking Ball.
Read this for all things Fultz
 

DJnVa

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Not sure what Danny will do. I know Fultz is skilled, but I'm not sold on the "consensus #1" designation.
My question is how "good" can a potential #1 pick be when his team went 9-22 (2-16 in the PAC)
Well, you may not be sold on him as YOUR #1, but he's very clearly the consensus #1. Consensus has a specific meaning, and in this case, Fultz is the consensus #1.
 

heavyde050

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Not sure what Danny will do. I know Fultz is skilled, but I'm not sold on the "consensus #1" designation.
My question is how "good" can a potential #1 pick be when his team went 9-22 (2-16 in the PAC)?

And a follow-up, if I may: Has there ever been a #1 pick with a worse college record? Olowokandi at Pacific is the only non-Euro, non-HS player that comes to mind.
The Ben Simmons LSU team was really bad and he had more talented teammates than Fultz.
 

Cellar-Door

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Fultz. Unless you can get a top 10 player in the league for that pick you take Fultz, the only guy in this draft (and he'd immediately be the only guy on the Celtics) with top 10 player in the league potential. It's incredibly tough to win a championship now (or ever really) without a top 10 player, take Fultz and figure out how to get value out of one or more of the IT/AB/Smart trio later.
 

LondonSox

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I've been thinking about a PHI-BOS trade since the lottery ended, although I really like Fultz and think he's the best player by far in this class.

I would think the trade looks like #1 + Young (for salary purposes) for Saric, #3 and a future (lottery-protected) 1st round pick.

I think PHI is going to pay Lowry the max (4/$152mm) and draft Jackson.
Saric and 3 I think the sixers would be all in on. And you can have okafor too !
Or a highly protected future.

I doubt it but I could see that. Saric is a great fit for the Celtics and I'm not sure Jackson isn't clearly the second best player in the draft.
I think it's a trade both teams could potential like.
The Celtics have theee guards now. Basically if you take fultz I am not sure how you can pay IT huge.

IT and Jackson and saric minus money or fultz ? The first option is better near term for certain.
 

67YAZ

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Fultz provides more mid- and long-term team building options. It's possible that with his length and athleticism, Fultz can play with IT as the secondary scorer & playmaker. In this situation, Fultz would have to ramp his defensive effort to carry the load AB/Smart often take when paired with IT, but Fultz has the talent to do it. Conversely, Aigne could move IT and build around Fultz as the primary scorer and playmaker; that's also within his talent.

I don't see how Ball pairs with IT. The Celtics would have to commit to Ball running the show within a few years, hoping that they can rebuild his shot and that he can add significant muscle to his frame. He might become the franchise player his backers tout, but it's higher risk because he Ball doesn't fit into the current squad. The team has to be rebuilt around him.

I think Jackson is a cut below those two. He also is almost directly redundant with Brown.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Saric and 3 I think the sixers would be all in on. And you can have okafor too !
Or a highly protected future.

I doubt it but I could see that. Saric is a great fit for the Celtics and I'm not sure Jackson isn't clearly the second best player in the draft.
I think it's a trade both teams could potential like.
The Celtics have theee guards now. Basically if you take fultz I am not sure how you can pay IT huge.

IT and Jackson and saric minus money or fultz ? The first option is better near term for certain.
Of course you would love to get Fultz. He fits the 76ers perfectly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Saric and 3 I think the sixers would be all in on. And you can have okafor too !
Or a highly protected future.

I doubt it but I could see that. Saric is a great fit for the Celtics and I'm not sure Jackson isn't clearly the second best player in the draft.
I think it's a trade both teams could potential like.
The Celtics have theee guards now. Basically if you take fultz I am not sure how you can pay IT huge.

IT and Jackson and saric minus money or fultz ? The first option is better near term for certain.
Bradley is almost certainly a goner no later than the deadline (but I'd guess this summer) assuming Fultz is drafted.....and was likely a goner without Fultz given that he is about to command over $20m annually after next season to retain him. You roll with IT/Smart/Fultz/Rozier and evaluate from there. The nice thing about Fultz is that he's going to be capable fairly soon of defending scoring 1's so IT isn't constantly exposed much like Bradley does for him now (except he obviously isn't going to do it as well as Bradley).

People have to keep in mind that we are still in rebuilding mode as funny as that sounds and will be adding MORE youth to the rotation next year sans a major move for Butler (I'll let others do their Hayward dreams, it would be nice but I'm not about that life happening here).
 

heavyde050

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Saric and 3 I think the sixers would be all in on. And you can have okafor too !
Or a highly protected future.

I doubt it but I could see that. Saric is a great fit for the Celtics and I'm not sure Jackson isn't clearly the second best player in the draft.
I think it's a trade both teams could potential like.
The Celtics have theee guards now. Basically if you take fultz I am not sure how you can pay IT huge.

IT and Jackson and saric minus money or fultz ? The first option is better near term for certain.
I just can't see the Celtics giving the Sixers Fultz. It doesn't make sense to improve an opponent like that.
 

heavyde050

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Danny's options, on initial reflection:

Pick Fultz
Trade #1 to CHI for Butler (18.7mm salary for 17-18, contract through 18-19 with a player option for 19-20)
Trade #1 to IND for George (19.5mm salary for 17-18, with a player option for 18-19)
Trade #1 to PHI for #3 and Saric (2.4mm salary for 17-18, with control through 19-20) (BOS then picks Jackson or Tatum)
Trade players and one or both 2018 first round picks (but not this year's #1) for Butler, George or other players

17-18 guaranteed contracts (61.8mm total):

27.7 Horford
8.8 Bradley
6.8 Crowder
6.3 Thomas
5.0 Brown
4.5 Smart
2.0 Rozier
0.7 Jackson (guaranteed portion of contract only)

Cap holds (37.1mm total):

15.6 Johnson
9.5 Jerebko
7.7 Olynyk
2.8 Young
1.5 Green

Assumes Zeller & Mickey options are declined and DJax is waived.

Salary cap is 103mm. Luxury tax is 123mm. If the rights to all free agents but Olynyk are immediately renounced on July 1, the Celtics would have 33.5mm of room under the cap with 7 players under contract, less cap holds of approx 7.0mm for the #1 pick (note 17-18 slots have not been announced), 2.25mm for Yabusele, 1.65mm for Zizic and approx 0.8mm to fill out the 12-man roster, based on minimum salary requirements.

That would leave approx. 21.8mm to sign a free agent (Hayward, I presume) or trade for Butler/George. Renouncing Olynyk would get them to 29.5mm, slightly under max room (30.6mm). Actually signing the #1 pick, Yabusele and/or Zizic frees up more room because the cap holds are based on 120% of slot.

Obviously, they could trade one of the 7 players under contract or get Yabusele to agree to stay overseas for another year to free up more room.
The best option is to draft Fultz. He fits what this team needs most for the cheapest and for both short and long term.
 

nighthob

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The McHale half of that would have to be Zach Collins, I bet. I think a gutsy GM could have him as the top guy in this draft (as McHale turned out to be in his).

You could no doubt get Okafor and 3 for Fultz:banana:
Or they can deal Nader for Okafor, that's about equal value.

Fultz fits the rest of Boston's guards, and makes it easy for Boston to bundle Bradley & Crowder for an upgrade at the PF spot after they sign Hayward. This team is going to be a lot of fun next year.
 
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mauf

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Why would you give the Sixers salary relief to trade down? You're supposed to get assets in those transactions, not give them away. If you're relieving them of the wasted draft pick the Sixers better be compensating them with a bunch of #1s.
If the dancing banana didn't tip you off that he was joking, the multiple posts that followed should have.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Take Fultz.

The window is still a couple years away, realistically, even if they can sign Hayward. Butler isn't getting us a banner unless there's injuries in GS and it's not worth the assets for the chance.
 

nighthob

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Smart has the size/mass/length to defend four spots on the floor, albeit only in short (but always intense) bursts at the 1 & 4. I think he stays just due to positional versatility. Bradley is going to get a killer offer from someone like Brooklyn, so this makes replacing Bradley a lot easier.

Also this is a huge boost to their bench scoring next year, along with Brown's improvement. I wouldn't be shocked to see Brown capture the starting SG spot by year's end next year with Smart & Fultz leading the bench mob.
 

Ale Xander

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Brown's a 3. Maybe he will improve his handle and shooting in the future to be a 2, but he's not there yet.
 

Imbricus

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One question on Fultz: He did have a sore right knee that bothered him enough in February and March that he sat out a number of games. There's very little information on the nature of this injury, from what I can see on the internet. I found some speculation that it was perhaps a meniscus tear. Does anyone know? Obviously knee injuries are concerning.

So the question: What kind of access to his medical records will the Celtics have? And would they be allowed to do an MRI/other testing of their own (I would think not, but ...)?

On what to do with the pick, I love the idea of trading it to Philly or Phoenix for their pick plus Saric or Chriss. But I doubt we'd get that kind of deal in the top four; maybe someone picking 5 or below would make that kind of offer. Still, this is a glorious day to wake up as Trader Dan ...

Edit: Adds paragraph on trading pick.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fultz. Unless you can get a top 10 player in the league for that pick you take Fultz, the only guy in this draft (and he'd immediately be the only guy on the Celtics) with top 10 player in the league potential. It's incredibly tough to win a championship now (or ever really) without a top 10 player, take Fultz and figure out how to get value out of one or more of the IT/AB/Smart trio later.
Yeah, I don't get people sometimes. Nearly everyone admits that the Cs need top-10 talent to compete for a championship, and now that we might able to draft a player with that kind of potential, people are saying we should trade the opportunity for two lesser players?

Fultz is going to come in and play immediately. Jackson, Ball, and even Tatum are going to have to make some adjustments. Hopefully they'll be able to do so but none of those three are going to be to do in the NBA what they did in college.
 

Devizier

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Not sure what Danny will do. I know Fultz is skilled, but I'm not sold on the "consensus #1" designation.
My question is how "good" can a potential #1 pick be when his team went 9-22 (2-16 in the PAC)?
Paul George amassed a two-year 28-39 record for the Fresno State Bulldogs.
 

PedroKsBambino

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None of this quarter for two dimes stuff. Draft Fultz.
Agreed. I think only reason you trade down is if you truly believe someone else is a better player and are sure he'll be there. Unlikely.

Otherwise, sure, explore A Davis, Harden deals but when those aren't possible, take the best guy at 1