The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

djbayko

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Well, trading for picks a few years away is kinda why we have the #1.
Yes, but the situations were completely different. At the time of the Nets trade, everyone was predicting strong value for those picks due to an eventual decline in the team, and we had nowhere to go but up. Here, the trend for the teams in question is in the wrong direction, and we are starting at #1.
 

boca

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Fultz working out for Philadelphia and all the noise from various respectwd reporters make this deal seem like an inevitability.

Hopefully Danny doesn't settle for the reported return. Seems very slim for the number 1 pick, especially since he resisted all deals at the deadline when he didn't know where the pick would fall.
 

DJnVa

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Fultz working out for Philadelphia and all the noise from various respectwd reporters make this deal seem like an inevitability.

Hopefully Danny doesn't settle for the reported return. Seems very slim for the number 1 pick, especially since he resisted all deals at the deadline when he didn't know where the pick would fall.
But that's just it. If Danny and Brad think Jackson is going to be as good as Fultz, then, in his eyes, it's a no brainer.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think it's perfectly fair return assuming the LAL pick is unprotected. I would just hope for a heist, because while Ainge clearly doesn't see Fultz as being a tier above the #3 pick, some in the league do.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fultz working out for Philadelphia and all the noise from various respectwd reporters make this deal seem like an inevitability.

Hopefully Danny doesn't settle for the reported return. Seems very slim for the number 1 pick, especially since he resisted all deals at the deadline when he didn't know where the pick would fall.
It's not an inevitability. I would guess that Sixers aren't going to discuss a trade without getting Fultz to work out for them. Still doesn't mean that they'll want to pay Danny's price.

The fact that Danny hasn't rushed to get Jackson or anyone else in probably means that he's getting such a haul it more than dwarfs the difference between Fultz and whoever DA ends up with.
 

the moops

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Not to belabor the point, but if they take out age restrictions in 18, then that pick might end up being pretty meh even if it's #1...
I think there is little chance that this gets resolved outside of the CBA negotiations. Too much to figure out. And even if it doen happen, I can't see it happening next year.
 

boca

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Has there been any confirmation on the Fultz-Celtics meeting that was meant to happen this weekend?
 

boca

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It's not an inevitability. I would guess that Sixers aren't going to discuss a trade without getting Fultz to work out for them. Still doesn't mean that they'll want to pay Danny's price.

The fact that Danny hasn't rushed to get Jackson or anyone else in probably means that he's getting such a haul it more than dwarfs the difference between Fultz and whoever DA ends up with.
Would you consider what's being reported as a haul?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It's not an inevitability. I would guess that Sixers aren't going to discuss a trade without getting Fultz to work out for them. Still doesn't mean that they'll want to pay Danny's price.

The fact that Danny hasn't rushed to get Jackson or anyone else in probably means that he's getting such a haul it more than dwarfs the difference between Fultz and whoever DA ends up with.
Isn't he working out for them today? There was an Embiid tweet posted earlier with them both in Sixers gear.
 

djbayko

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I think there is little chance that this gets resolved outside of the CBA negotiations. Too much to figure out. And even if it doen happen, I can't see it happening next year.
I'm not saying you're wrong about it being done by next year, but the side which was pushing for the rule initially - the league - is the one indicating that the experiment has failed, which kind of limits its value as a negotiating chip. I assume the players would still be in favor of increased potential career earnings. If both sides want this, then that should grease the skids a bit, right?

I guess one complicating factor might be that, now that the rule has been in place for a while, removing it might mean fewer job positions for players who are currently in the league. But that impact would really only last about one year until the new process normalizes.
 

bsj

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Really want Fultz. Could have dealt with the #3 AND Butler deals I was hearing. But without Butler in the mix, there is very little I like about losing Fultz
 

Kull

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The whole "relative value" argument (assuming there's really "no difference" in skill level between Jackson and Fultz) collapses when you consider that Fultz fills a gaping hole in the Philly roster (a divisional competitor), while for the Celtics he eliminates the sucking chest wound that is IT's defense. Jackson does neither thing for either franchise. No thank you.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's not an inevitability. I would guess that Sixers aren't going to discuss a trade without getting Fultz to work out for them. Still doesn't mean that they'll want to pay Danny's price.

The fact that Danny hasn't rushed to get Jackson or anyone else in probably means that he's getting such a haul it more than dwarfs the difference between Fultz and whoever DA ends up with.
Ainge HAS tried to get Jackson to workout for the Celtics. His agent declined.
 

Sprowl

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?

I like Jackson. He's extremely athletic, a real good defender, can play multiple positions, can create his own shot. Also has a good BB IQ and is a tough player. The negative is his shot.
Can he play multiple positions? I seem to recall several writers say he's a 3, not a swingman, primarily because of his limited wingspan.

To the list of positives we can add passing and playmaking. If the Celtics want additional playmakers so the defense cannot collapse on IT, but think they can get a great haul for Fultz, then Jackson's ability to drive and dish should help.
 

moondog80

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Jackson hit nearly 50% of his threes over last 2 months of season.
College FT% is a better predictor of pro 3P% than college 3P% because of SSS. This is why I have hesitation over Jackson.
 

JCizzle

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?



Can he play multiple positions? I seem to recall several writers say he's a 3, not a swingman, primarily because of his limited wingspan.

To the list of positives we can add passing and playmaking. If the Celtics want additional playmakers so the defense cannot collapse on IT, but think they can get a great haul for Fultz, then Jackson's ability to drive and dish should help.
:):fonz:
 

Cellar-Door

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?



Can he play multiple positions? I seem to recall several writers say he's a 3, not a swingman, primarily because of his limited wingspan.

To the list of positives we can add passing and playmaking. If the Celtics want additional playmakers so the defense cannot collapse on IT, but think they can get a great haul for Fultz, then Jackson's ability to drive and dish should help.
He would probably also play a lot of 4 eventually. In fact his best position may be as a smallball 4.
Hypothetically you could run out (if you sign Hayward) Point Guard/Hayward/Brown/Jackson/Horford as your crunch time lineup long-term.
 

DJnVa

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Loyko (who's not plugged in), but speaking to protections:

<<<reverse protections... Like C's get the highest of the LAL-Philly pick.. if it's not in the top 5.. the Sac pick conveys too, etc..>>>
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Ainge HAS tried to get Jackson to workout for the Celtics. His agent declined.
understood but in a way that gives DA more leverage - "you know, you're asking to take a guy who won't work out for me; you'll really to ake it worth my while".

My point is that it seems that DA is less concerned about who he would take at 3 so he's probably more focused on getting a huge return.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?

Can he play multiple positions? I seem to recall several writers say he's a 3, not a swingman, primarily because of his limited wingspan.
Line of the thread, kudos.

In Brad's system, he doesn't to be able to play different positions, he just has to be able to guard them. And he can guard 1-3 and very occasionally 4s depending on matchups. but for Cs that's fine since they have JB and Smart who can switch onto 4s.
 

Imbricus

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Okay, I was surprised no one else had the same thought as me. I guess I somehow missed your post then.
To be fair, it wasn't exactly the same thing -- I was wondering here about what was going on with the knee that kept him out of action for a while this year. Seems like years ago! :)
 

HomeRunBaker

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College FT% is a better predictor of pro 3P% than college 3P% because of SSS. This is why I have hesitation over Jackson.
Jackson improved his FT shooting every month during his freshman season. He shot 38.5% from 3P in January, 47.8% in Feb, and 40% in March after a 7-26 start in Nov/Dec.

Why is there hesitancy......because as an 18-year freshman he struggled shooting the ball in non-conference play? If anything the improvements he made during the season against higher intensity defensives and game planning is a positive indicator.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Jackson is also skinny right now. Brown is probably more prepared to play the 4.

Fultz is the most physically ready player in the top of the lotto.
 

BigSoxFan

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Have to wonder if Phoenix would join the bidding given how well good Fultz would look next to Booker. Don't think #4/Chriss gets it done but they do have other pieces like Bender, Miami's 2018 pick, etc.
 

djbayko

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College FT% is a better predictor of pro 3P% than college 3P% because of SSS. This is why I have hesitation over Jackson.
Then should we also be concerned with Fultz at 64% FT?

It's funny, someone earlier in this thread hand waved away Fultz' low FT% due to SSS :)

I get that Fultz' entire body of work in regards to shooting is better than JJ's. It's just interesting how people interpret data differently.
 
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djbayko

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?
Scouts now believe Josh Jackson is feathered, whereas they once thought he had scaly skin. But we already knew he could fly.

What is more controversial is whether he is warm- or cold-blooded, so we don't yet know if he will have "ice in his veins" when it comes down to crunch time.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Have to wonder if Phoenix would join the bidding given how well good Fultz would look next to Booker. Don't think #4/Chriss gets it done but they do have other pieces like Bender, Miami's 2018 pick, etc.
Which of course re-opens the door for Sac and the 5/10 picks. Much of the presumption so far is that the Celtics would keep the 3 if the trade goes down. For all we know, Ainge will go full Belichick ... get the 5 and 10, then trade out of each of those in separate deals
 

RG33

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I really don't see the wisdom i trading #1 (Fultz for #3 and two picks of questionale value (very unlikely to be #1), which seems like best case scenario if reports are accurate.

I feel like I am slowly watching Ainge make a Tyler Seguin-style mistake and it scares the day lights out of me.

Fans are either (like me, basically) panicked and upset, or have blind faith in Danny. I am happy to cede I may be overreacting to the news, but I also think Danny has not earned the "In Danny We Trust" label.

Danny has made amazing trades, but he has made plenty of his fair share of mistakes/bad picks. He could be screwing this up and handing a conference rival an all-star PG at age 20, so we can get someone who probably won't find many minutes on thsi team next year (especially if they add Haywood) between Crowder/Brown.

I don;t get it, and so far, I am quite displeased that I am worrying about it. I was excited for the draft. Now I fear it.
I really disagree with you on this.

First, what major decisions has Ainge screwed up? Picking anything north of #3 in the NBA draft is usually a crapshoot, so please don't point to KO as an example.

He has a proven track record of fleecing teams on trades, so much so, that it has been widely reported that teams hesitate to trade with him now.

He also brought the organization a championship within 5 years of becoming GM, and it could easily have been 2 or 3 if they hadn't had bad luck with injuries (KG in 2009 and Perk in the 2010 Finals).

Do people forget where this team was 4 years ago? The Lakers were in the same spot -- trying to rebuild from the ground up. And look where we are now in comparison -- and it has been all Ainge. They haven't gotten lucky with a Paul Pierce dropping, it has been shrewd trades, solid picks, and almost as importantly, NOT making rash, short-sighted decisions.

I believe he has absolutely earned "In Danny We Trust" at this point, and it isn't "blind faith" -- it is 14 years of track record with regards to the actual decisions he has made (and not made).

Lastly, if you can get the #3, an almost assured top 8 pick next year (Lakers), and a future 1st regardless of when, I think you do that deal. The only way you don't is if you have a foundational player to pick at #1 -- if this happens, clearly they don't see Fultz being that.
 

EJPats

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Jackson improved his FT shooting every month during his freshman season. He shot 38.5% from 3P in January, 47.8% in Feb, and 40% in March after a 7-26 start in Nov/Dec.

Why is there hesitancy......because as an 18-year freshman he struggled shooting the ball in non-conference play? If anything the improvements he made during the season against higher intensity defensives and game planning is a positive indicator.
Your point about shooting sample sizes still stands, but Jackson is already 20. He wasn't an 18 year old freshman.
 

RedOctober3829

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So... you're saying he's ferocious, but has short arms?



Can he play multiple positions? I seem to recall several writers say he's a 3, not a swingman, primarily because of his limited wingspan.

To the list of positives we can add passing and playmaking. If the Celtics want additional playmakers so the defense cannot collapse on IT, but think they can get a great haul for Fultz, then Jackson's ability to drive and dish should help.
He's 6'8" and athletic. I'd think he can play the 3 in a bigger lineup and 4 if they go small.
 

BigSoxFan

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Which of course re-opens the door for Sac and the 5/10 picks. Much of the presumption so far is that the Celtics would keep the 3 if the trade goes down. For all we know, Ainge will go full Belichick ... get the 5 and 10, then trade out of each of those in separate deals
We're all assuming that Jackson is the "real" guy but Jaylen was a bit of a surprise last year. I feel like any of the Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Tatum group is in play here and possibly even Fox/Isaac/Smith as well depending on what Ainge does.
 

Cellar-Door

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So with the news Smith will work out for the Cs....

Smith is an interesting potential pick, he has serious defensive concerns (especially given his short wingspan) but he's also an amazing athlete (even coming off an ACL tear) and has the best rounded offensive game other than maybe Fultz. He got to the rim on his own with ease, drew tons of fouls, made a decent clip of 3s,
 

benhogan

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So with the news Smith will work out for the Cs....

Smith is an interesting potential pick, he has serious defensive concerns (especially given his short wingspan) but he's also an amazing athlete (even coming off an ACL tear) and has the best rounded offensive game other than maybe Fultz. He got to the rim on his own with ease, drew tons of fouls, made a decent clip of 3s,
Not a fan of Smith. A huge defensive liability, according to a friend who is a diehard Wolfpack fan...I watched Smith one time this year, versus Syracuse, John Gillon hung 43 pts on him.
 

JCizzle

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Tatum is my guy if we pass on Fultz. Not the energy guy that JJ is, but he can score... his FT% is a good sign based on all that I've read here. Nearly equal steal/game.
 

Cellar-Door

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Not a fan of Smith. A huge defensive liability, according to a friend who is a diehard Wolfpack fan...I watched Smith one time this year, versus Syracuse, John Gillon hung 43 pts on him.
Oh he's definitely bad on defense, a combination of skill, effort, a bad team and a terrible coach. On the other hand he's a great athlete and good coaching should be able to make him at least a good enough defender to not kill you, odds are pretty good his defense long term won't be as bad as our current starting PG.


Tatum is my guy if we pass on Fultz. Not the energy guy that JJ is, but he can score... his FT% is a good sign based on all that I've read here. Nearly equal steal/game.
Tatum is definitely interesting as a "gets buckets" type of player, maybe a poor man's Melo (young Melo). He needs to be a more consistent 3 pt threat and his passing needs work.
 

JCizzle

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Tatum is definitely interesting as a "gets buckets" type of player, maybe a poor man's Melo (young Melo). He needs to be a more consistent 3 pt threat and his passing needs work.
34% on 4 3PTA /Game gives me optimism when combined with his 84% FT%. I think it's much more likely to translate than JJ and they seem to have very similar measurements.
 

tims4wins

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Tatum was a beast during Duke's ACC tournament run. You can see some high scoring potential. I'd be happier with him than Jackson but I'm a Devil
 

tims4wins

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What did you think of him defensively?
Chicken with his head cut off for the most part. But so was Jaylen for much of this year. Potential is there though.

Edit: also, he simply couldn't afford to pick up fouls so he was a sieve a times. Maybe that is me making excuses for him. We need drocca back ha

Edit 2: 9 min video on his D here
 

DannyDarwinism

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Not a fan of Smith. A huge defensive liability, according to a friend who is a diehard Wolfpack fan...I watched Smith one time this year, versus Syracuse, John Gillon hung 43 pts on him.
On 13 shots. A bunch of guys had career games against Smith Jr and his effort was egregiously bad in the couple of games I watched him in. And he didn't seem to have a good BBIQ from what I saw, which is a recipe for mediocrity in a primary initiator. But he has great tools and put up good numbers for a freshman, so if you believe Stevens is the guy to harness his potential, he has as much upside as anyone outside of Fultz.
 

kazuneko

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The way this is being written about it's sounding like the trade could go down before the draft. If JJ is really the target why would Ainge do that? It's hard to imagine that the 76ers are not interested in Fultz. In that case, if your Ainge and you've decided you prefer JJ then why wouldn't you just draft Fultz at 1 and then, if JJ is still available at 3 contact the 76ers prior to their selection and pull off a trade. Obviously the details have to be prearranged, but that doesn't seem to be a huge barrier.