The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

RG33

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Absolutely, it'll take a full season or two. I think expectations are way too high right now for someone with 2 games under their belt.
To be fair, he was a 1st round draft pick from the best college team in the country where he had an exquisite track record, and came with great coaching tutelage preparing him for the pro game, with a reputation for being accurate and a good decision-maker and leader. He has been all of those things, and arguably then-some for a rookie in the leadership department. I think it is fair, based on expectations and performance thus far, to be pretty excited about him and fairly confident that he is the QB of the future for the NEPs the next 3-5 years.
 

Big McCorkle

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I'm not as convinced that we have our QB of the future as some of you seem to be. Has he looked decent for a rookie? Absolutely. However he couldn't have asked to come into a better situation, so it's not totally surprising that he is able to make some throws. Belichick and co. have made a few QBs look good in their time.

I'm waiting to see more from Mac. Without Harris, they'd be having a hard time pushing the offense down the field. At some point, and probably this week, we'll see the other team starting to stack the box and challenging Mac down field, that's when we'll know if he's the QB of the future.
First of all, he could absolutely have asked to come into a better situation. The receiving talent is solid but nothing special, and while the offensive line was supposed to be an elite unit, it sure as shit hasn't been so far, from a combination of generally rough unit cohesion and Trent Brown's suspect calf. On top of that, let's assume that the Patriots don't draft him. If nobody trades up, he would have fallen to Washington at 19, or the Steelers at 24, or the Saints at 28. Both the Steelers and WFT are be better in terms of surrounding talent than the Patriots are right now unless the Patriots offensive line very quickly becomes what it was expected or at hoped to be, even if New England is pretty favorable long-term just because of Belichick and McDaniels (no disrespect to Tomlin, tough). Of course, the reporting is that had the Patriots not taken him at 15, the Saints had a deal in place to move up to 16 to grab him. New Orleans isn't actually all that great at the moment if only because Michael Thomas is out, but they would not be a bad place for a rookie to be. He could also have ended up in San Francisco, or Denver.

Second of all, opposing defenses are not going to be "stacking the box." Teams don't do that all that often, and they don't really do it in response to who the QB is, as far as I'm aware, and neither Jones nor Harris have done enough in either direction to warrant that reaction. When it does happen, it has much more to do with down and distance and the offense's personnel package and general tendencies than the QB. If New Orleans is regularly putting eight men in the box next week, or is even just matching up against 12 and 11 personnel packages from the Pats with their Base defense, I'll eat my shoe. I'll eat my other shoe if they do that and Jones doesn't light them up. And I rather like my shoes. They're good shoes.
 

FL4WL3SS

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People keep saying this, but it feels like fluff. The line hasnt been great, the running game has had turnovers, and - aside from 1 great run - hasnt been amazing. The receivers still seem to be lacking, and the tight ends have been serviceable but not top notch.

Other than smart play calls to limit turnovers, I'm not sure why people are acting like he was handed the reins to a top 5 offense. Hes left some on the table, but hes performing fine with mediocre talent/performance from other pieces through two games.
He came into a situation with the greatest coach of all time and one of the greatest OC of all time. I don't think it's fluff.
 

FL4WL3SS

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First of all, he could absolutely have asked to come into a better situation. The receiving talent is solid but nothing special, and while the offensive line was supposed to be an elite unit, it sure as shit hasn't been so far, from a combination of generally rough unit cohesion and Trent Brown's suspect calf. On top of that, let's assume that the Patriots don't draft him. If nobody trades up, he would have fallen to Washington at 19, or the Steelers at 24, or the Saints at 28. Both the Steelers and WFT are be better in terms of surrounding talent than the Patriots are right now unless the Patriots offensive line very quickly becomes what it was expected or at hoped to be, even if New England is pretty favorable long-term just because of Belichick and McDaniels (no disrespect to Tomlin, tough). Of course, the reporting is that had the Patriots not taken him at 15, the Saints had a deal in place to move up to 16 to grab him. New Orleans isn't actually all that great at the moment if only because Michael Thomas is out, but they would not be a bad place for a rookie to be. He could also have ended up in San Francisco, or Denver.

Second of all, opposing defenses are not going to be "stacking the box." Teams don't do that all that often, and they don't really do it in response to who the QB is, as far as I'm aware, and neither Jones nor Harris have done enough in either direction to warrant that reaction. When it does happen, it has much more to do with down and distance and the offense's personnel package and general tendencies than the QB. If New Orleans is regularly putting eight men in the box next week, or is even just matching up against 12 and 11 personnel packages from the Pats with their Base defense, I'll eat my shoe. I'll eat my other shoe if they do that and Jones doesn't light them up. And I rather like my shoes. They're good shoes.
The coach matters*, just look at Jax. TL has better talent, but nobody would say that was a better situation.

*Especially one that has proven over and over to be able to put guys in the best position possible to succeed.
 

Cellar-Door

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He came into a situation with the greatest coach of all time and one of the greatest OC of all time. I don't think it's fluff.
Also..... the TEs look worse than they did last year because they had better QB play last year. I mean Henry probably has 80-100 yards and at least 1 TD against the Jets if Mac sees/makes some throws. Smith probably has a big week 1 if Mac throws a couple passes where he was open downfield.

The coach matters*, just look at Jax. TL has better talent, but nobody would say that was a better situation.

*Especially one that has proven over and over to be able to put guys in the best position possible to succeed.
The Patriots' line is a lot better than JAX, even with the Brown injury.


Mac Jones has been good for a rookie, in particular he's limited mistakes. He's been helped by a good coaching staff, friendly playcalling, and a solid supporting cast. He also hasn't shown much in the way of creating positive plays. That's the next step, showing that he can make explosive and/or chunk plays happen consistently without a significant increase in negative plays.

Edit- I think if Mac is on the Jets or the Jags he'd look pretty bad, because he'd be getting rocked behind those lines.
 

Eddie Jurak

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He also hasn't shown much in the way of creating positive plays.
Against Miami, Jones completed passes to:
  • Meyers (short pass for 22 yards, mostly YAC)
  • Agholor (bullet 25 yards down field over the middle)
  • Agholor (short pass that Agholor took in for a 7 yard TD, who fucking cares that he threw the short route instead of into the end zone, the play was designed to give him both options and he took the open one)
  • Agholor (perfect back shoulder thrown dowfield for 21 yards)
  • White (perfectly thrown wheel route for 26 yard gain)
  • White (took a screen for 28)
  • Smith (took a short pass for 19)
I will further note that Against Miami, Jones converted 7 of 12 3rd down whre the Patrios passed, though he was much worse at that against the Jets (2-10).

Anyway, "hasn't shown much in the way of creating positive plays" is just not a fair description of what Jones has done thus far.

Payton Manning did not throw the ball downfield a whole heck of a lot as a rookie, either (6.5 yards per attempt; 4.84 ANY/A, by far career worsts except for his last year; Jones so far is 6.8/6.07). It was obvious from the 2 beatings he absorbed from the mediocre Pete Carroll Pats that he couldn't get it downfield much that year.

The kid has things to figure out, and he struggled a bit with the approach the Jets took to him. But he has certainly shown that he can 'create positive plays.'
 

rodderick

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Against Miami, Jones completed passes to:
  • Meyers (short pass for 22 yards, mostly YAC)
  • Agholor (bullet 25 yards down field over the middle)
  • Agholor (short pass that Agholor took in for a 7 yard TD, who fucking cares that he threw the short route instead of into the end zone, the play was designed to give him both options and he took the open one)
  • Agholor (perfect back shoulder thrown dowfield for 21 yards)
  • White (perfectly thrown wheel route for 26 yard gain)
  • White (took a screen for 28)
  • Smith (took a short pass for 19)
I will further note that Against Miami, Jones converted 7 of 12 3rd down whre the Patrios passed, though he was much worse at that against the Jets (2-10).

Anyway, "hasn't shown much in the way of creating positive plays" is just not a fair description of what Jones has done thus far.

Payton Manning did not throw the ball downfield a whole heck of a lot as a rookie, either (6.5 yards per attempt; 4.84 ANY/A, by far career worsts except for his last year; Jones so far is 6.8/6.07). It was obvious from the 2 beatings he absorbed from the mediocre Pete Carroll Pats that he couldn't get it downfield much that year.

The kid has things to figure out, and he struggled a bit with the approach the Jets took to him. But he has certainly shown that he can 'create positive plays.'
ANY/A and Y/A don't measure how far down the field you're throwing the ball. And can we please just stop using statlines from QBs who were rookies 25 years ago as a parameter? Peyton Manning played as a rookie in a passing environment that was more similar to the one Joe Namath QB'ed in than what we have today.
 

FL4WL3SS

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So did Cam Newton, and the offense sucked.
What are you on about? I'm not as optimistic about Mac as others and feel he came into a perfect situation and is pretty much what I thought he'd be. Your comeback proves my point, the Patriots won 7 games last year in spite of Cam, the coaching staff is that good.

I'm not discounting that he will improve. I'm cautiously optimistic, but he could be great a year from now just as much as he could be Tim Couch.
 

slamminsammya

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I get its a Pats board but are we really going to be comparing Mac Jones first K games to Tom Brady this entire season? Its ridiculous for any number of reasons.
 

Eddie Jurak

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ANY/A and Y/A don't measure how far down the field you're throwing the ball. And can we please just stop using statlines from QBs who were rookies 25 years ago as a parameter? Peyton Manning played as a rookie in a passing environment that was more similar to the one Joe Namath QB'ed in than what we have today.
Nice of you to criticize my post by grabbing a couple of brief mentions at the end and ignoring the rest. But fine, let's compare Jones to Lawrence/Fields/Lance/Wilson. So far they have thrown 7 TDs, which is better than Mac has done, but they also have 11 picks. The best of them has one passing yard more than Mac. Mac has 51 completions, they have 90 between them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Nice of you to criticize my post by grabbing a couple of brief mentions at the end and ignoring the rest. But fine, let's compare Jones to Lawrence/Fields/Lance/Wilson. So far they have thrown 7 TDs, which is better than Mac has done, but they also have 11 picks. The best of them has one passing yard more than Mac. Mac has 51 completions, they have 90 between them.
except..... nobody is arguing they've been better than Mac, those guys have been generally bad.

Anyway, "hasn't shown much in the way of creating positive plays" is just not a fair description of what Jones has done thus far.


The kid has things to figure out, and he struggled a bit with the approach the Jets took to him. But he has certainly shown that he can 'create positive plays.'
I mean, I obviously don't mean that he had 0 positive plays, my point was his overall body of work is one of extreme conservatism in both results and attempts. Picking 4 throws out of 2 full games is just silly, I mean you could do that with literally every QB who has ever played.

Mac Jones has been good for a rookie.... he hasn't been good for an NFL QB, and he hasn't really threatened defenses in tight windows and particularly the Red Zone. Not every criticism of his play so far is some sweeping judgement on his future. What Mac has shown is good, people are now discussing... can he do the things you need to do to be an NFL starter long term.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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What are you on about? I'm not as optimistic about Mac as others and feel he came into a perfect situation and is pretty much what I thought he'd be. Your comeback proves my point, the Patriots won 7 games last year in spite of Cam, the coaching staff is that good.

I'm not discounting that he will improve. I'm cautiously optimistic, but he could be great a year from now just as much as he could be Tim Couch.
The point is that having a good coaching staff doesnt make a player perform. Cam Newton had the same staff and sucked. Ditto Stidham (in limited action). The other 10 players on the field are much greater contributors than the coaching staff. If they arent performing well (many arent) that will have a negative impact on Mac.

Saying he was handed the keys to a Lamborghini is popular yet disingenuous.
 

Big McCorkle

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The coach matters*, just look at Jax. TL has better talent, but nobody would say that was a better situation.

*Especially one that has proven over and over to be able to put guys in the best position possible to succeed.
Yes, the coach matters. I think you can find me saying, on probably multiple occasions, that my suspicion is that post-draft development matters more than anything pre-draft and Lawrence being paired with Meyer puts him at a long-term disadvantage against the other rookies.

The thing is, Kyle Shanahan, Mike Tomlin, and Sean Payton are all great coaches. Ron Rivera is a quite good coach. Fangio and Shurmur are at least getting really solid production out of Teddy Bridgewater so far, for however much as that's their doing compared to both Teddy's efforts and the receiving group being upper echelon. So the claim that he couldn't ask for a better situation is rather dubious given how there were several at least equally good situations that he realistically could have ended up going to.
 

rodderick

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Nice of you to criticize my post by grabbing a couple of brief mentions at the end and ignoring the rest. But fine, let's compare Jones to Lawrence/Fields/Lance/Wilson. So far they have thrown 7 TDs, which is better than Mac has done, but they also have 11 picks. The best of them has one passing yard more than Mac. Mac has 51 completions, they have 90 between them.
I criticized the parts I thought were worthy of criticism. What you pointed out regarding his positive plays was spot on. He has indeed made big throws, it's not like he's checking down every play.
 

Cellar-Door

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The point is that having a good coaching staff doesnt make a player perform. Cam Newton had the same staff and sucked. Ditto Stidham (in limited action). The other 10 players on the field are much greater contributors than the coaching staff. If they arent performing well (many arent) that will have a negative impact on Mac.

Saying he was handed the keys to a Lamborghini is popular yet disingenuous.
I mean... Cam wasn't a rookie, but he also was considerably better through 2 games than Mac has been. It's fair to grade rookies on a different scale, but through 2 games he has not excelled where Cam sucked.

First 2 games as a Patriots
Cam- 45/63, 71.4% CMP, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 Sacks (for 15 yards), 122 rushing yards 2 Rush TDs, 0 Fumbles, 7.76 ANY/A
Mac- 51/69, 73.9% CMP, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks (for 44 yards), 0 rushing yards, 0 Rush TDs, 1 Fumble, 6.07 ANY/A

Now Cam fell apart soon after, but taking 2 games from Mac and declaring that he's a wild success in a situation (and it's not, this year's offensive personnel is better than last year's) that Cam failed isn't making a good faith comparison.

I think Mac will be at least a solid QB, but he isn't performing at that high a level EXCEPT when you take into account that rookie QBs usually suck.

This is not a Lamborghini, but it's not a jalopy either, it's a good roster, better than last year, and outside of Durant it's performing at a good level.
 

SMU_Sox

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Just finished the first half all-22 with a buddy. Mac missed 4-5 plays. The biggest concern I had though was his deep ball to Bourne on a double post concept. On this concept the Jets are in single high and the design of the play is to stress the high safety with two deep posts one under him and one over him. Both receivers have their guys beat and in trail position. It’s a 40 yard throw and Mac has a clean pocket. Bourne is running the high post and the safety bites on the under post. Mac has a clean pocket and makes the right read but the ball takes forever to get there and is behind Bourne. He needs to hit Bourne in stride in the end zone for a TD. It was wide open. He made the right read but the throw was awful. Later on for that double pass he has Agholor open but again it’s a 40 yard + pass for a TD but this time he passes it up. You aren’t going to take a ton of 40+ yard shots in a game but he had two TDs and he didn’t connect on either. Maybe it’s as simple as for two games in a row he’s working out the feel for when he has to put more velocity into a throw (last game it was the Meyers JMC crosser) so it’s possible this is something he can fix. If it is a sign that he can’t muscle the ball that far downfield it takes away some big chunk plays. It’s definitely something I’m going to monitor. He also passed on some intermediate shots for check downs which is a theme from last week too. Look he’s a rookie buts it’s helpful to know what areas he can improve on and we are starting to see a theme. Like last week he also had issues with getting the ball out so quickly that he missed plays as well. I know he was facing pressure during this game and RT was worse than I imagined. But it’s still plays where a more seasoned QB could have executed for more yardage.

For as frustrated as I was watching him in that first half his bucket to Meyers tells me he can take advantage of these matchups and looks but he has to be more consistent.

Something Matt mentioned was he wondered if Mac was getting coached to go from low to high in his progressions because on the double pass to Agholor and on a couple of others in the category above of missed opportunities it looked like he might have been progressing that way vs high to low. I don’t think that’s the case but without knowing what he was told to do it’s hard to know. It’s something I hope guys like Mark and JT can shed light on. I’ll watch the second half later.

Edit: Mac’s deeper completions have largely been arcing passing dropped in the bucket. We haven’t seen him able to throw a frozen rope for 35-40 yards (correct me if I’m wrong). Can he do that? Even going back to college did he ever fire a line drive 40+ yards?
 
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Big McCorkle

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Edit: Mac’s deeper completions have largely been arcing passing dropped in the bucket. We haven’t seen him able to throw a frozen rope for 35-40 yards (correct me if I’m wrong). Can he do that? Even going back to college did he ever fire a line drive 40+ yards?
He had a 35 yard line drive last week against Miami, the deep completion to Agholor across the middle.
 

SMU_Sox

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He had a 35 yard line drive last week against Miami, the deep completion to Agholor across the middle.
He had a 25 yarder I see on the TD drive. When did he throw the 35 yarder? Edit: You could take it from where he threw it and it’s 30 yards.

Further edit: that’s exactly the kind of throw I am looking for though. Can he do that for a 45-50 yarder? I’m not trying to move the goal posts just speculating on what would have been nice on the double post one.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe that’s where the lack of elite arm strength shows up? I’ve seen him throw lasers between 15-25 yards, and wonderful deep balls but not “frozen ropes” 40 yards downfield.
 

rodderick

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Maybe that’s where the lack of elite arm strength shows up? I’ve seen him throw lasers between 15-25 yards, and wonderful deep balls but not “frozen ropes” 40 yards downfield.
There are about 5 guys in the league that can throw a 40 yard frozen rope. It's Allen, Herbert, Mahomes for sure and maybe Rodgers/Zach Wilson/Trevor Lawrence. Herbert threw a completely absurd cover 2 hole shot to the field 40 yards deep this weekend that Mac Jones is obviously incapable of throwing, but so is everyone else. You don't need to have that in your back pocket to succeed in the NFL. I've seen enough from Mac to give me confidence he can hit a fade and throw a nice sidelines deep ball against man coverage, I want to see him attack the middle of the field more, especially on seams and digs. That's what I always thought Brady did better than pretty much anyone else: fit the ball into tight windows down the middle. If he can do that consistently, I'm sold, don't need to see the circus stuff.

Edit: It's also funny that Gash Prex is using Klassen here to illustrate that point because he said Mac's Jets tape was "grotesque" and basically called him out as afraid of making NFL throws, which I thought was way too inflammatory and a little silly for a guy that has some pretty good (if hot) takes on QB play.
 

Gash Prex

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Edit: It's also funny that Gash Prex is using Klassen here to illustrate that point because he said Mac's Jets tape was "grotesque" and basically called him out as afraid of making NFL throws, which I thought was way too inflammatory and a little silly for a guy that has some pretty good (if hot) takes on QB play.
Even he concedes it was a hot take

View: https://twitter.com/QBKlass/status/1440202980301492228


Once Mac gets used to the NFL game speed, you are going to see him ripping them down the field. He’ll never be Mahomes gun slinger but I have no doubt about it
 

Bowhemian

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Man, some of the takes in here, and elsewhere are amazing, both positive takes and negative takes. I mean, the guy has played in 2 NFL games. Two. In both of those games, there have been times that he looked pretty good, times that he looked perfectly adequate, and there were times that he didn't look so good. Was the expectation that he would come out and throw 4 TDs in each game?
The kid just turned 23 a couple weeks ago, let him grow into the role.
 

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Also..... the TEs look worse than they did last year because they had better QB play last year. I mean Henry probably has 80-100 yards and at least 1 TD against the Jets if Mac sees/makes some throws. Smith probably has a big week 1 if Mac throws a couple passes where he was open downfield.
This is what I’m struggling with. Don’t the TEs have almost as many catches in two games with Mac as the corpse of Matt LaCosse had all year with Cam? Sure they could have been even better if Mac had hit some throws but isn’t that true of literally every WR ever?

Or are you saying that these individual TEs look worse than they did last year on their old teams with different QBs?

Edit - NM: I can see that that’s what I think you were saying and I was just misreading it.
 

Cellar-Door

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This is what I’m struggling with. Don’t the TEs have almost as many catches in two games with Mac as the corpse of Matt LaCosse had all year with Cam? Sure they could have been even better if Mac had hit some throws but isn’t that true of literally every WR ever?

Or are you saying that these individual TEs look worse than they did last year on their old teams with different QBs?

Edit - NM: I can see that that’s what I think you were saying and I was just misreading it.
Yeah, if it wasn't clear I was agreeing with the post I quoted, and adding that the OPs calling the TEs serviceable but not as good as expected had far more to do with QB play than any drop in the actual TE performance, they've been what they always were at other stops, we just haven't fully taken advantage.
 

SMU_Sox

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@rodderick if not a frozen rope I expect an NFL QB to be able to make that throw on the double post. I listened to Lazar’s pod this morning and it’s something he saw too. His cohost argued that it is fixable and arm strength is something we would see a jump in year 2. I mean the play design and read calls for either a 35-40 yard shot or a 45-50 yard shot. Both shots are more or less to middle of field and not outside the numbers. So either way he has to throw deep on that play. And as for QBs I’ve seen who can throw it it’s way more than 5: Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar (he can throw deep but not outside the numbers although it’s not his strong suit), Baker, Allen, Zach Wilson did it in college, Tannehill, Wentz, Watson, Lawrence did it in college, Hurts (arm strength isn’t an issue), Fitz, Dak, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields did it in college, Cousins, Goff, Matt Ryan used to be able to (not sure if he still can), Winston, Brady (people under estimate Tom’s arm to this day which is incredibly stupid), Darnold, Kyler, Russ, and Stafford. All of those guys have shown me they can make a 40+ yard throw to the middle of the field with sufficient velocity. Call it a frozen rope or whatever I’ve seen it from the above. It’s not an easy throw but it’s one I expect a top 20 guy to be able to make. If he can’t make that throw why are they calling a play which requires him to do so, you know?
Is it fixable? Probably. It’s a combination of knowing when you should arc it and when you need to rip it and a function of arm strength which will take a year to develop. And as for expectations… rookie QBs are rarely above average compared to the rest of the league. I defined success as Mac having an ANY/A above 20th in the league and in the 15-25 range. So my expectations are that we find lots of flaws in his game early. That doesn’t mean the long term outlook for him is bleak. It just means he has things he needs to work on. His game against Miami was better than vs the Jets. I am not panicking. If anything I’m just tracking his issues and seeing what he will fix this year vs next. Apologies though because I know by pointing out flaws it will seem like I’m down on him - I am not.

Last note - on the arm strength issue it isn’t just one throw. There have been a handful of throws that I thought were weak but there were two good examples of it IMO: the throw to Meyers on the crosser that JMC broke up and the double post concept this week. There are others too but those two stood out to me. And, again, it might not be entirely arm strength vs figuring out when to dial it up vs arc it.
 

rodderick

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@rodderick if not a frozen rope I expect an NFL QB to be able to make that throw on the double post. I listened to Lazar’s pod this morning and it’s something he saw too. His cohost argued that it is fixable and arm strength is something we would see a jump in year 2. I mean the play design and read calls for either a 35-40 yard shot or a 45-50 yard shot. Both shots are more or less to middle of field and not outside the numbers. So either way he has to throw deep on that play. And as for QBs I’ve seen who can throw it it’s way more than 5: Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar (he can throw deep but not outside the numbers although it’s not his strong suit), Baker, Allen, Zach Wilson did it in college, Tannehill, Wentz, Watson, Lawrence did it in college, Hurts (arm strength isn’t an issue), Fitz, Dak, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields did it in college, Cousins, Goff, Matt Ryan used to be able to (not sure if he still can), Winston, Brady (people under estimate Tom’s arm to this day which is incredibly stupid), Darnold, Kyler, Russ, and Stafford. All of those guys have shown me they can make a 40+ yard throw to the middle of the field with sufficient velocity. Call it a frozen rope or whatever I’ve seen it from the above. It’s not an easy throw but it’s one I expect a top 20 guy to be able to make. If he can’t make that throw why are they calling a play which requires him to do so, you know?
Is it fixable? Probably. It’s a combination of knowing when you should arc it and when you need to rip it and a function of arm strength which will take a year to develop. And as for expectations… rookie QBs are rarely above average compared to the rest of the league. I defined success as Mac having an ANY/A above 20th in the league and in the 15-25 range. So my expectations are that we find lots of flaws in his game early. That doesn’t mean the long term outlook for him is bleak. It just means he has things he needs to work on. His game against Miami was better than vs the Jets. I am not panicking. If anything I’m just tracking his issues and seeing what he will fix this year vs next. Apologies though because I know by pointing out flaws it will seem like I’m down on him - I am not.

Last note - on the arm strength issue it isn’t just one throw. There have been a handful of throws that I thought were weak but there were two good examples of it IMO: the throw to Meyers on the crosser that JMC broke up and the double post concept this week. There are others too but those two stood out to me. And, again, it might not be entirely arm strength vs figuring out when to dial it up vs arc it.
Oh, I agree that's a throw he can make and a lot of guys can make. Maybe you're right that we have different definitions of what a "frozen rope" means, because I don't think he'd need that to make that specific pass, I was just talking about the concept of a 40 yard "frozen rope" in general. Of course, a ton of QBs can throw 40 yards down the middle of the field with sufficient velocity.
 

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I think it's fair to say that Mac has been good, and most or all of the things people thought would translate have (accuracy on short/intermediate routes, playbook accumen, etc.)
The jury is still out on whether the things people worried might not be there (arm strength to make all the throws, ability to avoid pressure, etc.) are all still up in the air.

A lot of people thought Jones was a high floor low ceiling prospect. It seems (so far) like the floor is high. Question is... when they open it up for him, what growth can he have from that floor.
 

SMU_Sox

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So on the above throw notice at 0:04 that the single high safety bites on the underneath post. Mac steps up into the pocket and launches it to Bourne running the post above the FS but the throw is behind Bourne and takes a long time to get there. That's a TD if he leads Bourne to the endzone and gets it there faster.

A note about this concept is that the Patriots see a lot of single high looks and this is a single high killer because it forces the safety to choose which route to defend when they both could be some degree of open. Lazar comments that they wish they had someone other than Bourne to run this route and I agree with him to an extent. Ideally you'd have two receivers in your group who can run faster than a 4.6 because if not it does limit some vertical prowess but even with his lack of speed he had his guy beat. I think Bourne slowed down because he started to see the pass was thrown behind him - again a better pass here will split the FS and corner and get 6. It's a learning opportunity for Mac. Let's see how he handles this kind of concept in the upcoming weeks.
 

Gash Prex

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it’s a late throw and behind the target -should have been out at the 3.5 second mark - instead it’s out at the 5 second mark. it was a bad play.

I think extrapolating beyond that is silly at this point.
 
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SMU_Sox

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it’s a late throw and behind the target -should have been out at the 3 second mark - instead it’s out at the 5 second mark. it was a bad play.

I think extrapolating beyond that is silly at this point.
You have to wait to throw it until the safety flips his hips one way or the other and commits to either the high or underneath route. That happens at the end of the 3rd second and into the 4th. You throw it then. He threw it right after the safety commits to the low. If it’s late it’s half a second late at most. Also, you’re free to disagree but telling me it’s silly doesn’t really help move the discussion - why do you think it’s silly? Genuinely curious not being snarky.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, he's maybe a bit late there taking an extra step, but to me the much bigger issue is he underthrows it by a lot. Bourne reads it, slows down and cuts in to get to it at the 6, but I have to think that throw is supposed to be about 2 yards deep in the end zone based on the route Bourne is running when the ball is thrown. Not sure if it's just a bad throw, a footwork issue when he was sliding up in the pocket, or an indication of subpar arm strength, but that ball needs to be a good 6-8 yards deeper.
 

Gash Prex

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You have to wait to throw it until the safety flips his hips one way or the other and commits to either the high or underneath route. That happens at the end of the 3rd second and into the 4th. You throw it then. He threw it right after the safety commits to the low. If it’s late it’s half a second late at most. Also, you’re free to disagree but telling me it’s silly doesn’t really help move the discussion - why do you think it’s silly? Genuinely curious not being snarky.
Your position last night was that this was most concerning throw - and that it might evidence he couldn't throw a frozen rope at 40 yards and lacked arm strength. I posted 2 throws from the Miami game that were frozen ropes of 30 yards and 35 yards in the air and all of a sudden it changed to 45-50 yarder.

This play to me is a lack of timing and experience - it should have been thrown the moment there was an opening like the Agholor throw posted above. Waiting for the safety to commit fully (with that depth) and then putting it up to the end zone with that much air under it is a receipt for disaster giving the safety time to recover. Bourne is no Randy Moss and cornerbacks will catch up to him like they did at the 5-6 second mark.
 

Cellar-Door

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Your position last night was that this was most concerning throw - and that it might evidence he couldn't throw a frozen rope at 40 yards and lacked arm strength. I posted 2 throws from the Miami game that were frozen ropes of 30 yards and 35 yards in the air and all of a sudden it changed to 45-50 yarder.

This play to me is a lack of timing and experience - it should have been thrown the moment there was an opening like the Agholor throw posted above. Waiting for the safety to commit fully (with that depth) and then putting it up to the end zone with that much air under it is a receipt for disaster giving the safety time to recover. Bourne is no Randy Moss and cornerbacks will catch up to him like they did at the 5-6 second mark.
As a note, neither of the throws was a what I would call a frozen rope, good throws, but not rockets by any measure and neither is close to 40 yards (usually when people are talking about that they mean yards from LOS) the first one is 26 yards from LOS (32 from hand) the second is 20 yards (27 from the hand). I don't think either is particularly compelling evidence that he can drive a ball 40 yards.

As to the second part.... SMU's point is that a good throw on that play is into the endzone without a ton of air under it, so the safety can't recover after committing. I think he's a split second late, but a good throw is an easy TD, the safety would only be able to recover if you put a lot of air under it. SMU's question is... can Mac do that. You can be a successful quarterback without having the arm to make that throw, but it makes it harder. I look at that play, and even from when he threw it there are easily a dozen QBs I can think of off the top of my head who drive the ball in there well before the safety gets over.
 

SMU_Sox

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Well said @Cellar-Door . Right, the throws posted are not the kind he missed to Bourne and didn't take to Agholor as they were deeper down the field. It was the kind of throw I wish he made to Meyers on the crosser against JMC. And the misses I commented that were the most concerning to me were because everything else is coachable and mental errors you'd expect from a rookie. I am not going to fret too much over them until we don't see improvement after some time. Physical deficits worry me more because we knew coming in Mac's arm was average at best. As for the 35-40 moving to 40-45 it was purely because I underestimated the yardage of the throw needed. I originally asked for two things - did he fire a frozen rope 35-40 yards and/or (in the same sentence) if he ever fired a 40+ yard line drive? What I was trying to get at was if he had made a rifle-like throw (whether we call that a frozen-rope, line-drive, rifling it, uncorking it, ripping it, driving it, etc) that far downfield. And he might have - look I watch a bunch of guys each year and sometimes I blank when trying to recall something. It's possible there were plenty of those throws on his resume and I just need a reminder. However, my memory for Burrow and Mac vs Herbert is that Burrow and Mac never had a ton of zip on their deep downfield passes. Meanwhile I can remember Herbert and Lance throwing rockets 50+ yards into the bucket. That was more their game then Mac's. It's not a necessary trait to succeed. If you want the last word you can take it because the whole point of this is to just note stuff each week he might have struggled with and then 1) waiting patiently to see if it improves or not and 2) seeing if anything could be an issue going forward. It's a fine line between saying you have to be patient and on the other side of your mouth saying it could be an issue because they contradict each other a bit but that's what I am trying to do. I am onto the let's wait for next week for Mac's first half.
 

DJnVa

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Arm strength aside, because it is what it is, as far as the playbook opening up---there are VERY plausible reasons why they haven't shown much yet, and they've been touched on in the thread:

Miami: first game ever, basic playbook seems fine.

NYJ: it's the Jets. I can see BB and Josh making the decision not to put some things on film for the Saints/Bucs to see since they likely knew they wouldn't need them against the Jets. Put a trick play in there to put that in their heads, but don't show anything else until it's needed. The next 2 weeks, it'll likely be needed.
 

Big McCorkle

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[media]
View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1440705914701430795?s=20

[/media]

My buddy made the clip but this is the double post I talked about earlier. Let me know if this doesn't show up or work, thanks!
For my two pesos, I don't think the problem on that throw is arm strength at all, it's that he misses to the left. The cornerback is in Bourne's back pocket the whole way. There's a window there, but it's not that it closes before the ball arrives, it's that Mac hits the wall of the house by about a yard. The velocity of the ball doesn't have that much of an impact at all, except maybe in letting the safety get closer than you'd like. With Bourne as the receiver there, I'm pretty sure you'd need perfect timing and a perfect throw to complete that pass, especially with the safety closing in, or for both Jones and Bourne to be on the same page with an option read where Jones sails it over the top more towards the left sideline and Bourne cuts back that way to get under it--but that would be a ridiculously high-level thing to do and would have to be part of the play design.

The receiver running that route is "open" if his name is Randy Moss or Mike Evans or Deandre Hopkins and so forth, not if his name is Kendrick Bourne. Jones just shouldn't have thrown that ball. I think Agholor was more open even with the safety sticking on him, or better yet, Jones really should have just tucked it and ran to the empty left side of the field.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I gotta be honest @SMU_Sox, I dont see that play the same way you two do.

I have NO idea if Mac can throw darts 50 yards downfield. But after watching this play about 30 times, I'm of the opinion that Mac knew this play should be there, that Bourne got initial separation, and that the safety bit on the underneath crosser. But by the time Mac let the ball fly, the separation by Bourne was gone. Frankly, I put this play on Bourne's route running, speed, or ability to maintain separation. There was hand-jostling when Bourne was getting separation. That jostling knocked him off the skinny post and ended up turning the route into more of a hard post then it should have been. Had he straightened his route out after getting separation, Mac can just let it fly to the left hashmark and either overthrows it or lets Bourne get under it. The hard post put him at a bad angle to allow the safety to recover, and it basically forced Mac to throw a deep centerfield throw. He threw it because the play developed how it was supposed to, but Bourne fucked up the execution.

This is Bourne right as he is stepping into his skinny post:

44479

Has separation, a deep ball to the outside of the left hash can get to him, the play design worked.

And here is Bourne right as Mac is throwing the ball (in other words, before Bourne adjusted with the ball in the air):

44480

Its subtle, but hes angled himself directly towards the single-high safety and removed any leverage he had on the corner by hardening his angle.

I think the reason Mac held the ball so long is because he expected there to be a better window than there was, because the play design worked. But the execution failed, and Mac ended up throwing a deep center ball instead of what he probably wanted to throw.

Anyway, thats my read on the play.

Edit: removed pictures and several paragraphs. Im boring.
 

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SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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I think we have now 4-5 people and 4-5 interpretations of what happened. I will reach out to Perry, Solak, Waldman, Klassen, and Scho and see if they respond with a take. I’ll drop responses back here. Lazar FWIW saw it similarly to me but he was even harsher on the throw from Mac. @Kenny F'ing Powers he also thought Bourne wasn’t the ideal guy to run it and it wasn’t a great route.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I think we have now 4-5 people and 4-5 interpretations of what happened. I will reach out to Perry, Solak, Waldman, Klassen, and Scho and see if they respond with a take. I’ll drop responses back here. Lazar FWIW saw it similarly to me but he was even harsher on the throw from Mac. @Kenny F'ing Powers he also thought Bourne wasn’t the ideal guy to run it and it wasn’t a great route.
I expect you to send them my post, for them to read it, and immediately admit I'm super smart and correct.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Bourne definitely ran back into the backside safety, allowing him to recover more easily after initially flashing to the inside receiver running to the far sideline/corner. I can’t tell if that post route was intended to break back inside at such a harsh angle or Bourne was simply playing the ball in the air/got pulled over. But it seemed to me that the backside safety recovered really well on the post route, ie, that may not be as open as it looked like it would be when the safety turned his hips.

It would be great to hear from McDaniels or Mac what should have happened there.