The future at 3rd

[Corsi]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  32s32 seconds ago
Was just told - emphatically -- by a major league source that the SF report of the Giants being out on Sandoval is "NOT'' accurate.

 

[joe dokes]

 
 
 
And look where they are!

 
Just making sure this gets the love it deserves.

 

[Corsi]

Take this with a MASSIVE grain of salt.  It's Dan The Angry Intern from 98.5:
 
Dan Lifshatz ‏@Dan_Lifshatz  7m7 minutes ago
Hearing Sandoval to Boston could wrap up by Friday, and Lester to Sox is "close." Apparently they also have some other moves up their sleeve

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Take this with a MASSIVE grain of salt.  It's Dan The Angry Intern from 98.5:
 
Dan Lifshatz ‏@Dan_Lifshatz  7m7 minutes ago
Hearing Sandoval to Boston could wrap up by Friday, and Lester to Sox is "close." Apparently they also have some other moves up their sleeve

Much rather have this tweet coming from Edes or Gammons. A lot of these fringe unknown guys are really desperate to "break" a story.

As much as I don't see Sandoval being worth $20M, I don't see much issue with blowing the salary cap this season with Victorino, Napoli, Cespedes and possibly Buchholz and maybe Ortiz coming off the books for 2016. Things might start to get tight by the time guys like Bogaerts and Betts are at the end of abritration, but by then some of these other contracts will be closer to being up.

 

[joe dokes]

Yes, they have a hole at third, but they have options in the minors in a year or two  I just don't think it makes sense to give a 5-6 year deal to someone when there's potentially a hole for a year.  Find a 1 year bridge then see where GC is at.  I'd agree that WMB looks lost right now and may never pan out, but it's really early to bail on him.  There's no requirement to start him in MLB.  The outfield should pick up the production from last year, so that should offset some below average production from third.  Of course, you wouldn't want to do that annually, but that's why you develop prospects.  If we had nothing in the minors, then it might be worth signing Sandoval.  But that's not the case.

 
A one year bridge is a nice theory.  But people have been selling bridges for a long time. What bridges are out there?  If we assume that Sandoval will be good (if we cant assume that, then the exercise is pointless), then the Sox get a not-hole at 3B right now, and hopefully turn Cecchini into something else.   As for the inevitable Crawford comp, yes the red flags might be different -- Crawford's inability to "deal with" Boston is probably not an issue here -- but Sandoval is 28. Even fat, he's probably going to be fine for 3 seasons.
 

Of course, you wouldn't want to do that annually, but that's why you develop prospects
 

Assuming the budget doesn't get hamstrung to the point it debilitates the team, there is no more inherent value in keeping the prospects than in trading some of them (some. Not all.  The math says that a team needs some cost-controlled regulars).  But teams cant choose when "good" players become available as FAs. And this good one may only be looking for a contract through his age 33 season, which is pretty good for the signing team, especially with a protected first round pick, that has a need at the FA's position.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Hamstring? Achilles? Pants?

Partial or full?

Can you be more specific?

He is a streaky, overweight (but surprisingly athletic) hacker (see Rudy's posts as well as other posts in this thread...and no, he is nothing like Vlad Guerrero). He plays hard and he seems like a good guy fwiw but his flaws, which played ok in San Francisco under his first contract, are going to be magnified immensely under a nine figure deal in Boston. I hope I am wrong but this will end badly for both parties.

 

[Corsi]

Heyman:
 

Pablo Sandoval and his agents boarded a flight Wednesday afternoon from Boston, and the Red Sox are expected to make an offer by Thursday or so in what looks like a strong and spirited competition between at least five teams, including the favored, big-market Boston and San Francisco teams.
 
The plan seems to be to go back, offers in hand, to the Giants, where the beloved Sandoval has won three rings, to see where they stand. But that doesn't necessarily make San Francisco an overwhelming favorite, not when there are at least five interested teams and a belief among some that like most free agents the offers ultimately will be the vital factor here.
 
There's no word yet on what the Red Sox will be offering, but with prices moving up, the Red Sox needing offense and it becoming clear he's their first positional target, the number would be expected to be significant. Sandoval seeks a nine-figure deal, as was suggested here first, and the market seems to heading toward that goal, if not very close. Russell Martin, a 31-year-old catcher, just signed for $82 million over five years, so there's little doubt at this point Sandoval, 28, will get at least a five-year deal, if not six or seven.
 

 

 

[soxhop411]

 
Heyman:
 

 

 

How recent was this? Reports as of 10 min ago is that they made an offer to him

 

[Corsi]

How recent was this? Reports as of 10 min ago is that they made an offer to him

 
Posted at 2:41 pm ET

• 
   
  

 

[gaelgirl]

If the Sox sign Sandoval, it will end in tears. But it will be amusing to watch....

I'll certainly cry... Actually, it will be fascinating to see how Sox fans react to Sandoval. Giants fans are used to it and he's still probably the most beloved yet most frustrating player on the team. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

I wonder if, and hope, they could do something like 5/90 with 2 team options at 20 per, with vesting player options at 20 per if he meets certain playing time and BMI thresholds.  Giving him something like 7/126 guaranteed would make me nervous.

 

[joe dokes]

He is a streaky, overweight (but surprisingly athletic) hacker (see Rudy's posts as well as other posts in this thread...and no, he is nothing like Vlad Guerrero). He plays hard and he seems like a good guy fwiw but his flaws, which played ok in San Francisco under his first contract, are going to be magnified immensely under a nine figure deal in Boston. I hope I am wrong but this will end badly for both parties.

 
Speaking only to the bolded part....my sense (without detailed research) is that most longish-term FA deals "end badly." But ultimately the deal has to be judged by more than the end.

 

[ivanvamp]

I can't decide if watching him up close everyday will make people like him or hate him more.

He could be a lovable lump of a star, or he could be a fat, frustrating tub of goo.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I can't decide if watching him up close everyday will make people like him or hate him more.

He could be a lovable lump of a star, or he could be a fat, frustrating tub of goo.

 
All of the above. We are Red Sox fans

 

[joe dokes]

I can't decide if watching him up close everyday will make people like him or hate him more.

He could be a lovable lump of a star, or he could be a fat, frustrating tub of goo.

 
He'll be a like a fat, ebullient JD Drew.

 

[rodderick]

 
He'll be a like a fat, ebullient JD Drew.

 
Seems crazy to say this given the perception of him at the time, but in this offensive environment I'd take Drew's 2007 slash line and run.

 

[Corsi]

McAdam:
 

A report out of San Francisco from KPIX 5 that the San Francisco Giants had dropped out of negotiations to re-sign free agent third basemen Pablo Sandoval was emphatically denied Wednesday by a source with direct knowledge of the talks.
 
The source indicated the Giants are still very much interested in bringing Sandoval back, though the length to which they are willing to go for the 28-year-old remains uncertain.
 
The Giants are known to be wary of committing to Sandoval for any deal longer than five years. Sandoval career-long weight issues give the Giants extra pause.
 
Sandoval spent Monday night and Tuesday in Boston, visiting the city and getting to know Red Sox team officials. The visit was termed a good one by a source, though there was no guarantee that the visit would lead to Sandoval's signing with the Sox.
 
On Wednesday morning, the Red Sox were busy formulating a formal contact offer to present to Sandoval. A Major League source said that no formal offer was presented Tuesday while Sandoval, his brother Michael, and agent Gustavo Vazquez were in town and at Fenway.
 
Sandoval is said to be intent on getting a deal better than the one the Giants gave to outfielder Hunter Pence (five-years, $90 million) a year ago. It's unknown whether the Giants would be willing to extend such a contract to Sandoval, presumably leaving the Red Sox an opening to land him should they be willing to exceed $90 million on a five-year deal or give Sandoval the six-year deal that Vazquez recently said his client deserved.

http://www.csnne.com/blog/red-sox-talk/source-denies-report-giants-are-out-sandoval-hunt

 

[joe dokes]

 
Seems crazy to say this given the perception of him at the time, but in this offensive environment I'd take Drew's 2007 slash line and run.

 
of course...but I was talking more in terms of irrational/polarized/vitriolic/ fan reaction, as opposed to actual performance.

 

[tims4wins]

If Panda does what JD Drew did from 07-10 we'll all be doing cartwheels

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I can't decide if watching him up close everyday will make people like him or hate him more.

He could be a lovable lump of a star, or he could be a fat, frustrating tub of goo.

E5 is probably right but as someone who watched the guy quite a bit, I believe his warts are easier to overlook when you consider him underpaid for his work rather than fully valued.

Plus, I suspect the Boston media is going to be a rude awakening for Sandoval versus the softballing San Francisco press corps. Nothing fuels Fenways ire like a few well placed barbs aimed at the Sox's newest FA toy.

 

[Corsi]

Marino Pepén ‏@Marino_Pepen  11m11 minutes ago
FUENTE: Los #RedSox formalizarán mañana su oferta para Pablo Sandoval, que podría ser: 5-6 años y una opción a razón de 20 MM por año. #MLB
 
edit: Marino Pepen broke the Rusney signing in August.  Translated means they formalized their offer this morning, 5-6 years with an option at $20M per year.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

 
Marino Pepén ‏@Marino_Pepen  11m11 minutes ago
FUENTE: Los #RedSox formalizarán mañana su oferta para Pablo Sandoval, que podría ser: 5-6 años y una opción a razón de 20 MM por año. #MLB
 
edit: Marino Pepen broke the Rusney signing in August.
 

Then again, it could not.

 

[67WasBest]

 
Marino Pepén ‏@Marino_Pepen  11m11 minutes ago
FUENTE: Los #RedSox formalizarán mañana su oferta para Pablo Sandoval, que podría ser: 5-6 años y una opción a razón de 20 MM por año. #MLB
 
edit: Marino Pepen broke the Rusney signing in August.  Translated means they formalized their offer this morning, 5-6 years with an option at $20M per year.
 

The #RedSox morning formalize its offer for Pablo Sandoval, it could be: 5-6 years and an option at 20 MM per year. #MLB

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I hope that's a misstatement for 5 years at 20MM per year, with an optional 6th year.
 
Because if it's 6/120 guaranteed, plus an option, that's some crazy-ass shit. Even Cameron wouldn't offer him that much (6/103 was his estimate).

 

[glennhoffmania]

I assumed it was a 5 or 6 year offer for undisclosed salaries, with an option for a 6th or 7th year at 20m.
 
Edit- or I misread and suck at Spanish, and you're right, which would be really stupid.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I assumed it was a 5 or 6 year offer for undisclosed salaries, with an option for a 6th or 7th year at 20m.
 
Edit- or I misread and suck at Spanish, and you're right, which would be really stupid.

 
I have no Spanish at all, but "por año" seems odd for a one-year option. For that matter, it seems odd to describe a deal in which the AAV for the first 5-6 years is a mystery but we know how much the option will be.

 

[67WasBest]

That was a simple google translation.  Maybe someone can translate accurately?

 

[gaelgirl]

Giants beat writers are now saying that the reports that San Francisco was out and it was a two-team race between the Red Sox (at 90 percent) and Toronto (at 10 percent) are completely and totally wrong. Maybe even out of left field wrong. Hank Schulman says "the club is heavily engaged." Another reporter had a quote from Pablo's agent that was a sarcastic, "maybe they [the media] know more than me." 

 

[ehaz]

It says "it could be 5-6 years with an option, at 20m per year."
 
So yes, 20m AAV 

 

[rodderick]

 
I have no Spanish at all, but "por año" seems odd for a one-year option. For that matter, it seems odd to describe a deal in which the AAV for the first 5-6 years is a mystery but we know how much the option will be.

 
Seems to me as if he's saying the AAV would be 20M and that the 5-6 year contract would include an option. Meaning 5/100 + option or 6/120 + option. People have translated what he said accurately, but it's hard to get a sense of what he meant because of the sentence structure he used. Had he included a comma after "opción", it would have made it clearer, but I'm pretty positive this is what he meant.

 

[MakMan44]

Yeah, 20 per is an overpay. At 5 years, I think you can deal with it but I really hope it's not a 6 year deal with a 7th year play option. 

 

[Paradigm]

Guys, they claimed Juan Francisco. The future at third is solved.

 

[BornToRun]

Yeah, 20 per is an overpay. At 5 years, I think you can deal with it but I really hope it's not a 6 year deal with a 7th year play option. 

Agreed. If the annual value really is 20 per, I hope it's a 5 year deal.

 

[nvalvo]

5/100 plus some sort of team or vesting option (games played?) for a sixth year doesn't seem too bad. 

 

[opes]

His averages have been declining since 2011.  Do they not notice that?

 

[benhogan]

If Pablo deal falls through, I'd like to see Ben call Theo and offer:
 
Swihart + Cecchini + Ranaudo for Kris Bryant.
 
Probably not enough.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

If Pablo deal falls through, I'd like to see Ben call Theo and offer:
 
Swihart + Cecchini + Ranaudo for Kris Bryant.
 
Probably not enough.

 
So why are you suggesting it?
 
Not enough is a euphemism.

 

[benhogan]

 
So why are you suggesting it?
 
Not enough is a euphemism.

First offer to see if the Cubs would engage in discussions about Bryant.
 
Third base is a need for us.  Bryant is a future superstar 
 
Young catching and young pitching are needs for the Cubs.  Cecchini becomes their 3rd basemen of the future.  All were drafted when Theo/Hoyer were with the Sox.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

If it's $20, it better be a one or two year. With team option at same or below and no buyout.

 

[Otis Foster]

IMO, Cecchini is the prototype of the prospect more highly valued by his present fan base than by future employers. Ranaudo doesn't even get that much love from SOSHers.
 
That leaves Swihart, who is the real deal, but I think you'd need to add a lot more to the mix (Johnson?) to get their attention. It's going to take a megaton for Theo to move their potential superstar.

 

[opes]

The Cubs are not going to give up the no.1 prospect who just had a monster season in AAA.  He's MLB ready and no one besides Mike trout could be traded for him.

 

[foulkehampshire]

The Cubs are not going to give up the no.1 prospect who just had a monster season in AAA.  He's MLB ready and no one besides Mike trout could be traded for him.

 
There is no more untouchable player in baseball. Monster, monster power.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If Pablo deal falls through, I'd like to see Ben call Theo and offer:
 
Swihart + Cecchini + Ranaudo for Kris Bryant.
 
Probably not enough.

Nobody has enough for Theo to trade Kris Bryant  unless you are talking about trading Trout.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
There is no more untouchable player in baseball. Monster, monster power.

Agree 100%.  You might see something like Swihart for Baez (or Soler) next off-season if Vazquez hits better than expected and Baez cuts the Ks down and bounces back.
 
The Cubs have a lot of talent they can trade for Vazquez/Swihart but don't need to address that until next year when our C situation is clearer as well.  Both teams value assets similarily and will be dealing from a strength so I think something could get done next off-season.  

 

[rodderick]

There's a good chance Bryant is Giancarlo Stanton in the next couple of years, while making peanuts. Good luck trying to pry him away from the Cubs for anything short of generational level talent.

 

[DourDoerr]

 
A one year bridge is a nice theory.  But people have been selling bridges for a long time. What bridges are out there?  If we assume that Sandoval will be good (if we cant assume that, then the exercise is pointless), then the Sox get a not-hole at 3B right now, and hopefully turn Cecchini into something else.   As for the inevitable Crawford comp, yes the red flags might be different -- Crawford's inability to "deal with" Boston is probably not an issue here -- but Sandoval is 28. Even fat, he's probably going to be fine for 3 seasons.
 
Assuming the budget doesn't get hamstrung to the point it debilitates the team, there is no more inherent value in keeping the prospects than in trading some of them (some. Not all.  The math says that a team needs some cost-controlled regulars).  But teams cant choose when "good" players become available as FAs. And this good one may only be looking for a contract through his age 33 season, which is pretty good for the signing team, especially with a protected first round pick, that has a need at the FA's position.

In the the not too distant past, Bill Mueller was signed as a free agent and Mike Lowell came over as a salary dump in the Beckett deal.  Any team could have acquired them.  Luckily for the Sox they were more than a one year stopgap, but they were out there.  BC should have an inkling on a couple of candidates if his scouts are doing their due diligence.  It's risky and hard work and why a lot of teams go the easy route and get the name - even if they know they're overpaying.
 
I agree that a contract for a good player through age 33 season is a good thing in general, but I disagree that Sandoval is one of those players you make this large a bet on.
 
Was looking up third basemen and was surprised to see how far David Wright had fallen.  Thought he might be a good candidate until I looked at his contract - $20 million/yr for 4 yrs then $15 and $12 million/yr.  Good news - he'll be a free agent in 2021!

 

[soxhop411]

“@nickcafardo: In addition to offers by San Francisco and Boston, Pablo Sandoval is expected to receive an offer from the Blue Jays in next 24 hours.”

 

[soxhop411]

“@GordonEdes: Michael Sandoval, Pablo's brother and one of his agents, said they have left Boston without an offer but still are waiting on one from Sox”

 

[YTF]

Toronto should have picked up Francisco as insurance.

 

[soxhop411]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  20s21 seconds ago
Source: #BlueJays “in the mix” for Sandoval, as first reported by @nickcafardo. See my earlier tweets, which outlined obstacles Jays face.