People are acting like Beltran fell off a cliff when he went to STL.
(BA/IsoD/IsoP)
2007-2011: .288/.086/.217
2012-2013: .282/.061/.211
That 25 points of OBP is huge. Hu-ge, no way around it. Most of that is almost definitely not coming back. But in this climate those last two years are nothing to be ashamed about. That "decline curve" in St. Louis that has people saying it's the end of the road are back-to-back 128 OPS+ years. For every troubling periph (that 29% line drive rate last year screams outlier), there's a positive one (after his K rate went out of control two years ago, he seemed to fix it last year). In Fenway with a squad that remembers how to not swing, I think he stands to be a safe bet to at least be around the guy he was in STL next year, with a credible chance of gaining back 20-30 OPS points.
More to the point, I think the FO would be more than happy to pay 2/24-2/28 to the guy he was in STL, less due to positional considerations than lineup ones. It's a guess, but they don't seem comfortable with the #5 hitter situation (Lord knows I could be projecting) Where there are no viable Napoli lineup replacements available on the market (1B, SS) they extend QOs. Where there are (C, OF), they don't extend a QO on one side and are the Hot Rumor on the other. If they're happy with Beltran's numbers flatlining where they are, and are betting on Fenway v age to ensure they don't fall further, that makes sense to me.
I say get everyone and keep everyone. I have zero percent problem with Gomes, Nava, Middlebrooks, and Carp all grabbing some bench to start the season. Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-Beltran-Napoli-Drew-Salty-JBJ. Sign me up right the fuck now. Middlebrooks via Xander backs up your whole infield, and there are plenty of ABs to be had in that outfield. Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-McCann-Napoli-Nava/Gomes-Drew-JBJ works for me too.
edit: typo