The Beltran Option

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Savin Hillbilly

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rembrat said:
 
You have 2 CF in Victorino and JBJ. And Beltran is your RF with Gomes and Nava splitting time in LF and Nava backing up Beltran (-18.7 UZR/150) would only be slightly worse than Nava (-15 UZR/150) was in RF.
 
So you want to pay Victorino--who just won a Gold Glove in RF--$13M to be the short side of a CF platoon with JBJ just so you can stick Beltran and his magic disappearing range in RF full-time? :facepalm:
 

rembrat

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glennhoffmania said:
 
I think this is why some of us want to sign neither.
 
If Beltran was looking for a one year deal for $12m or so I'd be somewhat interested.  But I'm reading this thread and trying to understand the wisdom of tying up a roster spot for two years and $28m for a 37 year old with declining offense and defense.  If the choice is between Beltran at 2/28 and Napoli at 3/39 it's a no brainer in my opinion.
 
So, you agree, Beltran is the choice then? Or do you want to go with the guy whose hip could blow up tomorrow? That hardly seems like a 'no-brainer' in my opinion.
 

TheoShmeo

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Devizier said:
 
Beltran played 64, 98, and 44 games before putting together two healthy seasons in St. Louis in that span.
 
Needless to say, you can't guarantee that Beltran will be as healthy in the next two seasons as he was in the last two. I'd say that the odds are much better than Ellsbury will be healthy going forward than Beltran will be. This strikes me as another potential Mike Cameron situation.
I dunno.  Cameron was a preposterous contract from the get go.  Based on the last two years, Beltran at least has a chance to be useful for a while longer.
 
But I think this is a smoke screen.  So many early reports about the Sox level of interest in free agents over the years have proven to be wrong.  Sometimes the writer is a shill for the agent (I'm looking at you, Jon Heyman) or the team is playing the writer to manipulate its own free agents or other teams.  This smells like one of those times.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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rembrat said:
 
So, you agree, Beltran is the choice then? Or do you want to go with the guy whose hip could blow up tomorrow? That hardly seems like a 'no-brainer' in my opinion.
 
Yeah, I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with more than 1 year of guaranteed money for Napoli.  A 1 year deal with two vesting options based on plate appearances?  Sure.  A three year deal with his hips?  Lunacy.
 

rembrat

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
So you want to pay Victorino--who just won a Gold Glove in RF--$13M to be the short side of a CF platoon with JBJ just so you can stick Beltran and his magic disappearing range in RF full-time? :facepalm:
 
Stop hitting your face. No one is calling for a Victorino/JBJ platoon in CF. JBJ would play on the days Victorino has a bruised (name a body part) and that Vic just won a Gold Glove in Fenway's RF means he could handle the transition to CF easily. He is, of course, one by trade.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
So you want to pay Victorino--who just won a Gold Glove in RF--$13M to be the short side of a CF platoon with JBJ just so you can stick Beltran and his magic disappearing range in RF full-time? :facepalm:
 
I think those would be the option for backups - if JBJ falters/goes down, Vic is the CF, Beltran slides to RF and Nava/Gomes (one likely gets traded) plays LF. The starting OF would be LF Beltran, CF JBJ, RF Victorino.  One upside of Victorino is that you don't need a backup CF, you need a backup RF because Victorino just moves over.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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rembrat said:
 
Stop hitting your face. No one is calling for a Victorino/JBJ platoon in CF. JBJ would play on the days Victorino has a bruised (name a body part) and that Vic just won a Gold Glove in Fenway's RF means he could handle the transition to CF easily. He is, of course, one by trade.
 
He *was* one by trade, you mean. He didn't look like a good one this year, and, by the numbers, he wasn't a good one last year either. Remember, Beltran was a good CF once too. Aging happens. Victorino in 2014 is a right fielder. Beltran in 2014 is a left fielder, maybe even a DH (and we already have one of those).
 
Besides, paying $33M for a mediocre defensive outfield when you could have a good defensive outfield for $18M seems like a poor use of resources, unless you're going to improve the offense enormously. Is Beltran's offense really going to be worth 30 runs more than JBJ's? Because that's about what we'd be paying for--never mind the opportunity cost of blocking JBJ's development by turning him into a bench player at age 24, which to me sounds insane (if he's not ready, send him back to AAA for another year).
 
 
ArttyG12 said:
 
I think those would be the option for backups - if JBJ falters/goes down, Vic is the CF, Beltran slides to RF and Nava/Gomes (one likely gets traded) plays LF. The starting OF would be LF Beltran, CF JBJ, RF Victorino.  One upside of Victorino is that you don't need a backup CF, you need a backup RF because Victorino just moves over.
 
Putting Beltran in LF is also a wacky economic proposition. We got a .278/.356/.434 slash line from our left fielders last year. Beltran's was .296/.339/.491. So, more power, less on-base ability--and remember Beltran will be a year older and playing in a tougher division. For that, we will pay something like an extra $10M over what Gomes cost us. I'd rather spend that money on McCann, and I don't even like McCann.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Putting Beltran in LF is also a wacky economic proposition. We got a .278/.356/.434 slash line from our left fielders last year. Beltran's was .296/.339/.491. So, more power, less on-base ability--and remember Beltran will be a year older and playing in a tougher division. For that, we will pay something like an extra $10M over what Gomes cost us. I'd rather spend that money on McCann, and I don't even like McCann.
 
I guess it depends on their projections.  The cost increase doesn't seem so out of whack if they expect Nava to regress significantly, which isn't super unlikely.  Beltran may not be as good as what we got last year, but his floor is also probably higher.
 

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Devizier said:
 
Beltran played 64, 98, and 44 games before putting together two healthy seasons in St. Louis in that span.
 
Um no. Look closer.
 
Beltran played 64 games in 2010. However the 98 and 44 you quote were both in 2011 for different teams.
 
His last 5 years is actually: 81, 64, 142, 151, 145,
 
He's been pretty consistent the last 3 years, not the last two.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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One thing to keep in mind about Beltran is that he was 125th out 140 qualified batters in P/PA this year with 3.64.  No qualified Red Sox hitter came in lower than that.  Here's how the 12 primary guys from last year did.
 
Qualified:
 
Victorino was 68th with 3.83
Papi was 64th with 3.85
Ellsbury was 61st with 3.86
Pedroia was 26th with 4.05
Nava was 20th with 4.11
Mike Napoli was 1st with 4.59
 
Not Qualified:
 
Gomes: 3.87
Carp: 3.97
Middlebrooks: 4.11
Drew: 4.10
Ross: 4.22
Salty: 4.03
 
Beltran would immediately be the worst hitter in the lineup by this measure.
 

Devizier

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DrewDawg said:
 
Um no. Look closer.
 
Beltran played 64 games in 2010. However the 98 and 44 you quote were both in 2011 for different teams.
 
His last 5 years is actually: 81, 64, 142, 151, 145,
 
He's been pretty consistent the last 3 years, not the last two.
 
Yep. Total boner on my part. Point still stands, however.
 

DJnVa

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Devizier said:
 
Yep. Total boner on my part. Point still stands, however.
 
Sure--but saying he's been healthy the last 3 years is a bit better than saying the last 2...
 

glennhoffmania

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rembrat said:
 
So, you agree, Beltran is the choice then? Or do you want to go with the guy whose hip could blow up tomorrow? That hardly seems like a 'no-brainer' in my opinion.
 
Putting Napoli aside for a moment, please explain why giving a 37 year old OF with declining range and a declining OBP a contract that exceeds the one he just recently completed.  I'm not trying to start a pissing match over him.  I honestly just can't understand why people would be so excited about handing Beltran $28m right now given his age, his trends, and the current roster makeup.  In my opinion, they need a catcher and a 1B (and moving Nava or Gomes to 1B doesn't count as far as I'm concerned) far more than another OF.
 

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TheoShmeo said:
I dunno.  Cameron was a preposterous contract from the get go.  Based on the last two years, Beltran at least has a chance to be useful for a while longer.
 
B-ref had Cameron as worth 6.1 WAR in his age 35 and 36 seasons before joining the Sox. Beltran has also just finished his age 35 and 36 seasons, and his cumulative WAR for these years was.... 6.2. I get that Cameron's perceived value was much more tied up in his defense, which was (a) perhaps being inaccurately quantified and (b) a puzzling thing to place a priority on when shopping for a left-fielder for Fenway. But I'm not sure the gulf between them is all that great.
 
Overall, I haven't fully come down on one side or the other of this yet. But I do think  this is one of those potential acquisitions where people would feel a lot differently if the player in question had the same stats but a different name on the back of his uni. 
 
EDIT: my point isn't to say that 'Cameron was a disaster, therefore Beltran would be too!'. At the time, I thought the Cameron signing was semi-bad but defensible. I'd probably feel the same way if Carlos came here. 
 

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Not to digress, but it was by no means obvious that Mike Cameron's contract was going to be bad when Theo signed him.  Previous 3 years his OPS was 0.759, 0.809, and 0.795.  His OBP, K and BB rates were all pretty stable as well.  And had he not started getting hurt (one of which wasn't even his fault), then he may have continued to produce at that rate or slightly below.  And his salary was less than $8M/yr. 
 
Beltran is showing signs of statistical decline; I have to believe this rumor is agent-speak.  
 

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Is Beltran better defensively than Gomes/Nava?  I haven't seen anything that suggests that.
 
I can't speak to his defense as a whole, but he's a stud at preventing the grand slam.  
 

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Ha, interesting Mike Cameron coming up in a Carlos Beltran thread.  Both names the other isn't likely fond of hearing about.
 
I'd love taking a shot with Beltran if there was a direct need--I liked and still do like the idea of the Mike Cameron contract, and I think Beltran's a bit better right now than Cameron was when we signed him.  Signing him as your LF to essentially replace Nava isn't the worst idea in the world, as you could trade Nava at the high point of his value and hedge against him Bellhorning in 2014 with something closer to a sure bet in Beltran.  The key there would be using Gomes to get Beltran plenty of rest, and perhaps Beltran to give Ortiz days off as well.
 
So if he falls in your lap, sure, but he seems a better fit in say, NYY than here.  Who knows, maybe that "hey Boston seems kind of great and I'm in my last few years" thing is how he falls in your lap.
 

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JohntheBaptist said:
Ha, interesting Mike Cameron coming up in a Carlos Beltran thread.  Both names the other isn't likely fond of hearing about.
 
I'd love taking a shot with Beltran if there was a direct need--I liked and still do like the idea of the Mike Cameron contract, and I think Beltran's a bit better right now than Cameron was when we signed him.  Signing him as your LF to essentially replace Nava isn't the worst idea in the world, as you could trade Nava at the high point of his value and hedge against him Bellhorning in 2014 with something closer to a sure bet in Beltran.  The key there would be using Gomes to get Beltran plenty of rest, and perhaps Beltran to give Ortiz days off as well.
 
So if he falls in your lap, sure, but he seems a better fit in say, NYY than here.  Who knows, maybe that "hey Boston seems kind of great and I'm in my last few years" thing is how he falls in your lap.
 
Daniel Nava will be 31 on Opening Day 2014.
 
Yes, he's an inexpensive player, but what do you think you'll get in trade for a 31 year old player, even one who now shows signs of knocking on the Hall of the Pretty Good? 
 

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JohntheBaptist said:
Ha, interesting Mike Cameron coming up in a Carlos Beltran thread.  Both names the other isn't likely fond of hearing about.
 
 
 
Yeah, those two were always butting heads.
 
It would be interesting to see what Beltran thought about playing first base full time.  I'd much rather have his bat than Napoli's over the next two years, especially at a discounted rate.  If he could play passable defense and grow himself a beard, it would work out well. 
 

JohntheBaptist

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
Daniel Nava will be 31 on Opening Day 2014.
 
Yes, he's an inexpensive player, but what do you think you'll get in trade for a 31 year old player, even one who now shows signs of knocking on the Hall of the Pretty Good? 
Not much--I could have been clearer, but I was sort of going back and forth on Beltran as an idea.  I mean, the reason you'd do it wouldn't be the return you get for Nava certainly.
 
I mentioned it but I like Beltran a lot so I'm inclined to entertain the idea, and would be all about it if we had that clear need he could fill, but it is a bit of a stretch to suggest we do.
 

TOleary25

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
Daniel Nava will be 31 on Opening Day 2014.
 
Yes, he's an inexpensive player, but what do you think you'll get in trade for a 31 year old player, even one who now shows signs of knocking on the Hall of the Pretty Good? 
 
I think you may be giving too much credit to other GM's around the league. The Nationals traded Michael Morse last offseason, who was turning 31 and in the last year of his contract, for a pretty good prospect in A.J. Cole. Nava is coming off of a more productive season and would be under team control for 4 years.
 
If they can get a quality prospect or return for Nava and then sign Beltran I dont see that as a bad move. The only cost would be short term money, which the team seems to have, and a draft pick. Obviously the return on Nava would have to be greater than the pick the Sox would be losing by signing Beltran, but I think the Sox are just trying to keep all doors and possibilities open.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
It's not about "just dropping a few slots". It's about forfeiting a pick. Yes they will likely have two extra picks, but that doesn't mean you blow your best one (both for talent or the signing money) for the right to give an injury prone 37 year close to $30 for two years. It would be extremely short sighted. 3 top 40 picks and no Beltran > 2 top 40 picks and Beltran.
 
Maybe.  And the Sox may well come to this same conclusion.  My point was that if they decide they really want a player who costs a pick, it's not as costly as it would have been last year.  Yeah, they lose the slot as well as the money, but that's why having multiple QO picks coming back is important.  You can certainly argue that they are better off stockpiling picks and slot money and avoiding QO players at all costs this winter.  I don't think it's that clear, though, and Beltran might fill a need that's worth giving up that one pick for.
 
I'm not 100% in the Beltran camp here.  I can just see the logic in pursuing him.
 

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TOleary25 said:
 
I think you may be giving too much credit to other GM's around the league. The Nationals traded Michael Morse last offseason, who was turning 31 and in the last year of his contract, for a pretty good prospect in A.J. Cole. Nava is coming off of a more productive season and would be under team control for 4 years.
 
If they can get a quality prospect or return for Nava and then sign Beltran I dont see that as a bad move. The only cost would be short term money, which the team seems to have, and a draft pick. Obviously the return on Nava would have to be greater than the pick the Sox would be losing by signing Beltran, but I think the Sox are just trying to keep all doors and possibilities open.
 
Is Beltran really that much of an upgrade over Nava if he's a guy coming off a productive season, under team control for 4 years, and you expect him to net a return of a prospect equal or better than a #20-30 pick?
 
2013 Nava: 134 G, 303/385/445/831, .366 wOBA, 2.4 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR
2013 Beltran: 145 G, 296/339/491/830, .359 wOBA, 2.4 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR
 
Even if we assume some regression by Nava due to his likely unsustainable .352 BABIP, how far is he going to fall that Beltran will be worth the $12-14M difference in salary?  And frankly, at 37 years old, I don't think Beltran is any kind of sure bet to maintain his 2013 performance, let alone improve on it.
 

Drek717

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I'd much rather pursue a trade for Ethier than Beltran.  Ethier has 4 years and a little over $70M left on his deal but the Dodgers would likely take on a good bit of that money, say bringing the total owed by the receiving team into the mid 40's, and offers greater defensive value given that he's actually a solid RF with a good arm and acquitted himself passably well in the large CF of Dodger's Stadium for over 70 games last year.
 
If this is all built around moving Nava, either in trade to a budget strapped team or to 1B, then it makes even more sense as Ethier is a player desperately in need of a platoon partner.  His numbers v. RHP have been elite even during his down seasons, he just can't hit lefties.  Stop letting him face them and he's a valuable player for the next 4 years.
 

TOleary25

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
Is Beltran really that much of an upgrade over Nava if he's a guy coming off a productive season, under team control for 4 years, and you expect him to net a return of a prospect equal or better than a #20-30 pick?
 
I wouldn't necessarily expect Nava to net a return greater than the pick lost by Beltran, but I wouldn't rule it out. My point was that a GM may see Nava as more valuable than we see him here, and the Morse trade last season is a good example of that.
 
Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
Even if we assume some regression by Nava due to his likely unsustainable .352 BABIP, how far is he going to fall that Beltran will be worth the $12-14M difference in salary?  And frankly, at 37 years old, I don't think Beltran is any kind of sure bet to maintain his 2013 performance, let alone improve on it.
 
How big of an upgrade is a fair question but I believe Nava's true value is closer to his 2012 numbers and I'm  not ready to concede Beltran is going to be worse at the plate given what we just saw Papi do as a 37 year old. Also, besides maybe the bullpen, I don't see many free agency options that are upgrades to this roster without having to shell out a big long term contract.
 
Yes it's a $12-14M salary difference, but you're not considering the return you get from Nava in the equation. As I said, the return for Nava would have to exceed the value of the draft pick in the Sox eyes to be worth it. If the Sox could fill a hole with a Nava trade (Hanigan plus from Cinci?) then that could be an solution as well. I'm not overly concerned about the salary difference between Beltran and Nava because A) the Sox have a lot of money available B) It's not preventing the Sox from doing any moves in the future and C) it is likely an upgrade at the position.
 

JimBoSox9

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People are acting like Beltran fell off a cliff when he went to STL.
 
(BA/IsoD/IsoP)
2007-2011: .288/.086/.217
2012-2013: .282/.061/.211 
 
That 25 points of OBP is huge.  Hu-ge, no way around it.  Most of that is almost definitely not coming back.  But in this climate those last two years are nothing to be ashamed about.  That "decline curve" in St. Louis that has people saying it's the end of the road are back-to-back 128 OPS+ years.  For every troubling periph (that 29% line drive rate last year screams outlier), there's a positive one (after his K rate went out of control two years ago, he seemed to fix it last year).  In Fenway with a squad that remembers how to not swing, I think he stands to be a safe bet to at least be around the guy he was in STL next year, with a credible chance of gaining back 20-30 OPS points.  
 
More to the point, I think the FO would be more than happy to pay 2/24-2/28 to the guy he was in STL, less due to positional considerations than lineup ones.  It's a guess, but they don't seem comfortable with the #5 hitter situation (Lord knows I could be projecting)  Where there are no viable Napoli lineup replacements available on the market (1B, SS) they extend QOs.  Where there are (C, OF), they don't extend a QO on one side and are the Hot Rumor on the other.  If they're happy with Beltran's numbers flatlining where they are, and are betting on Fenway v age to ensure they don't fall further, that makes sense to me.
 
I say get everyone and keep everyone.  I have zero percent problem with Gomes, Nava, Middlebrooks, and Carp all grabbing some bench to start the season.  Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-Beltran-Napoli-Drew-Salty-JBJ.  Sign me up right the fuck now.  Middlebrooks via Xander backs up your whole infield, and there are plenty of ABs to be had in that outfield.  Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-McCann-Napoli-Nava/Gomes-Drew-JBJ works for me too.  
 
edit: typo
 

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Ken Rosethal says that Carl Crawford's available!
 

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“@JeffPassan: Potentially big news from @TBrownYahoo, especially in a market short of bats: Carlos Beltran wants 3- or 4-year deal. http://t.co/4giRQrxHQA”

If this is the case I would pass on Beltran
 

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Devizier said:
 
Beltran played 64, 98, and 44 games before putting together two healthy seasons in St. Louis in that span.
 
Needless to say, you can't guarantee that Beltran will be as healthy in the next two seasons as he was in the last two. I'd say that the odds are much better than Ellsbury will be healthy going forward than Beltran will be. This strikes me as another potential Mike Cameron situation.
 
That's one of the reasons why I picked that span. (edit--Not the details, which were incorrect as noted by others I can't seem to find now that I'm going back to find it. The point was that even someone with an injury history who also has a more recent history of being healthy is a different thing than someone who is seven years away from that age.)
 
Of course the odds are good that Ellsbury is going to be healthier going forward. He's a lot younger. But it's also true that Beltran is more likely to be healthy in his age 37 season because he's already managed to navigate his age 30 to 36 seasons without having a career ending injury. That's why comparing giving money to Beltran now to giving money to Ellsbury when he'll be a similar age is not something that is remotely useful.
 
Also, Mike Cameron got here when he was old and got hurt in a way that cost him the one skill he was ever really good at. It's not something that needs a name. Sometimes when you sign old guys, they're gonna get hurt. That's why you sign them to contracts like the one Mike Cameron got and not the one Ellsbury is about to get.
 

TOleary25

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soxhop411 said:
“@JeffPassan: Potentially big news from @TBrownYahoo, especially in a market short of bats: Carlos Beltran wants 3- or 4-year deal. http://t.co/4giRQrxHQA%E2

If this is the case I would pass on Beltran
 
A 37 year old who supposedly only wants to play for a contender and will cost a draft pick. He can want 3 or 4 years but I just don't see any team going that far.
 

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TheoShmeo said:
I dunno.  Cameron was a preposterous contract from the get go.  
 
It was a two year contract for fifteen million for someone who was a little bit above average on both sides of the ball in center field. It wasn't a preposterous contract by any stretch of the imagination.
 
 
soxhop411 said:
“@JeffPassan: Potentially big news from @TBrownYahoo, especially in a market short of bats: Carlos Beltran wants 3- or 4-year deal. http://t.co/4giRQrxHQA%E2

If this is the case I would pass on Beltran
 
Yeah...I don't see that happening. Gambling that he'll be enough of an upgrade over Nava for a two year contract is one thing. Four? No thanks.
 

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Ken Rosethal says that Carl Crawford's available!
Well he or Ethier probably has to go. I wonder what they'd want for Ethier, and whether they'd prefer to eat money for better talent in return or if they'd rather move the contract.
 
Also since this is the Beltran thread...easy "no" if he wants more than 2 years. Probably still a "no" even if it is 2 years, stick with Nava and spend the money elsewhere.
 

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Count me on the Beltran in LF bandwagon. The reason it's a good signing is not for any one of the contingencies that it depends on (Nava regression, Victorino injury, JBJ struggles, Napoli potentially leaving, Ortiz getting dinged up). It's good because, between ALL of those things, at least two are pretty likely to happen, and Beltran helps in all instances. Given the Sox' farm situation, picking order and the likely financial picture, I don't think they would view either the pick or the money as a huge cost, and I think that's the correct view.
 
My prediction thus far has been that the Sox bring back Napoli and maybe Salty, and don't spend a lot of other money this winter. In that scenario, Beltran for 2 years makes a lot of sense. I won't scream bloody murder if it doesn't happen, especially if the price gets crazy, but I think it's a really, really good idea.
 

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JimBoSox9 said:
People are acting like Beltran fell off a cliff when he went to STL.
 
(BA/IsoD/IsoP)
2007-2011: .288/.086/.217
2012-2013: .282/.061/.211 
 
That 25 points of OBP is huge.  Hu-ge, no way around it.  Most of that is almost definitely not coming back.  But in this climate those last two years are nothing to be ashamed about.  That "decline curve" in St. Louis that has people saying it's the end of the road are back-to-back 128 OPS+ years.  For every troubling periph (that 29% line drive rate last year screams outlier), there's a positive one (after his K rate went out of control two years ago, he seemed to fix it last year).  In Fenway with a squad that remembers how to not swing, I think he stands to be a safe bet to at least be around the guy he was in STL next year, with a credible chance of gaining back 20-30 OPS points.  
 
More to the point, I think the FO would be more than happy to pay 2/24-2/28 to the guy he was in STL, less due to positional considerations than lineup ones.  It's a guess, but they don't seem comfortable with the #5 hitter situation (Lord knows I could be projecting)  Where there are no viable Napoli lineup replacements available on the market (1B, SS) they extend QOs.  Where there are (C, OF), they don't extend a QO on one side and are the Hot Rumor on the other.  If they're happy with Beltran's numbers flatlining where they are, and are betting on Fenway v age to ensure they don't fall further, that makes sense to me.
 
I say get everyone and keep everyone.  I have zero percent problem with Gomes, Nava, Middlebrooks, and Carp all grabbing some bench to start the season.  Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-Beltran-Napoli-Drew-Salty-JBJ.  Sign me up right the fuck now.  Middlebrooks via Xander backs up your whole infield, and there are plenty of ABs to be had in that outfield.  Victorino-Xander-Pedroia-Ortiz-McCann-Napoli-Nava/Gomes-Drew-JBJ works for me too.  
 
edit: typo
Keeping/signing all of these guys would entail not only benching Gomes, WMB, Carp and Nava, but sending at least two of them to AAA (unless you think the Red Sox will go with a 5 or 6-man bench, or carry no backup catcher or utility infielder).
 
Edit: or I guess you have Napoli backing up catcher and Drew/X backing up 2B? Seems much better to get a real utility infielder on the cheap and not bother with resigning Drew. 
 

Savin Hillbilly

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nothumb said:
Count me on the Beltran in LF bandwagon. The reason it's a good signing is not for any one of the contingencies that it depends on (Nava regression, Victorino injury, JBJ struggles, Napoli potentially leaving, Ortiz getting dinged up). It's good because, between ALL of those things, at least two are pretty likely to happen, and Beltran helps in all instances.
 
You say Beltran would help in several scenarios involving other players underperforming or departing. I wanted to zoom in on a couple:
 
1) Nava regression. What do you picture as Nava's role on a 2014 Sox team that includes Beltran? It seems to me that the only way Beltran makes sense is as a Gomes replacement. Except that since he's a better hitter at a higher price than Gomes, you're not going to platoon him. So Nava becomes the 4th OF, which is fine, but in that scenario it's not a matter of Beltran helping with a Nava regression; Nava will get much less playing time, so we'll never really get to find out if he would have regressed or not. In that sense, Beltran helps with an assumed Nava regression by pre-empting it.
 
2) Napoli potentially leaving. Why does Beltran help with this? Are you picturing him playing first base? 
 

Super Nomario

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
You say Beltran would help in several scenarios involving other players underperforming or departing. I wanted to zoom in on a couple:
 
1) Nava regression. What do you picture as Nava's role on a 2014 Sox team that includes Beltran? It seems to me that the only way Beltran makes sense is as a Gomes replacement. Except that since he's a better hitter at a higher price than Gomes, you're not going to platoon him. So Nava becomes the 4th OF, which is fine, but in that scenario it's not a matter of Beltran helping with a Nava regression; Nava will get much less playing time, so we'll never really get to find out if he would have regressed or not. In that sense, Beltran helps with an assumed Nava regression by pre-empting it.
Gomes played 116 games and got 366 AB last year. That's pretty typical for a fourth OF. Nava isn't going to be buried.
 

radsoxfan

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
 
2) Napoli potentially leaving. Why does Beltran help with this? Are you picturing him playing first base? 
 
I doubt Beltran gets time at first, but Napoli leaving would create a hole there.  Carp likely fills most of the 1B role vs. RHP, but Nava may play there too.  Those were 2 options in LF last year in Fenway, so it would open up room for Beltran. There is also the unlikely scenario Ortiz gets some time at 1B allowing Beltran to DH.  
 
I actually think Napoli potentially leaving would be one of the most important factors in determining if Beltran signs.  Partially because the Red Sox would have about 14M freed up, partially because the OF depth might end up being shifted over to 1B. Beltran seems like a pretty good way to replace Napoli's offense without having to do a long term deal.  Plus, there are not a lot of 1B options out there.
 

reggiecleveland

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 

2) Napoli potentially leaving. Why does Beltran help with this? Are you picturing him playing first base? 
Nava played some 1b. He is likley to hit better than WMB. The Sox may be looking at 1b (Nava, CArp. some RH bat) as a place to piece together a players than LF.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Nava is a LHH. (I don't care what it says on his baseball card, for purposes of roster construction, he's a LHH.) How the hell do he and Carp split time at 1B? That's a non-starter. If Nava's primary role is at 1B, then he and Carp are the quintessence of redundant.
 
Super Nomario said:
Gomes played 116 games and got 366 AB last year. That's pretty typical for a fourth OF. Nava isn't going to be buried.
 
He played 116 games, but only got 67 outfield starts. In fact, the Sox ranked near the bottom of the league in OF starts by guys other than their top 3, at 127 -- and that was with a semi-platoon in LF and plenty of time lost to injury at the other two spots.
 
If we sign Beltran we sign him to be the full-time LF. We're not paying him what he will cost to platoon with Daniel Nava. You could argue that the 4th OF will still get lots of playing time because JBJ may falter or Victorino may get hurt--but that's hardly an encouraging argument, considering that in the Beltran/Nava scenario our other two OFs will not be adequate defensive subs for either of those guys.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 

 
2) Napoli potentially leaving. Why does Beltran help with this? Are you picturing him playing first base? 
 
Without Napoli and with Beltran, you have Nava, Carp, Hassan, maybe WMB all in the mix for AB at first, with Nava also getting a fair bit of time in the OF. I think you can reasonably project similar or even improved production from the combination of 1B and LF relative to 2013 with that approach. I agree that signing Beltran basically forces a Gomes trade. Instead you want a 5th OF who plays good defense, but you don't have to be too picky about which side of the plate he hits from.
 
If everyone is healthy and doesn't regress, yes you have the problem of Nava being a bit overqualified as a 4th OF, and you worry about the potential downgrade at 1B defense. If Napoli stays (which I think he will) you definitely risk paying for a marginal upgrade in Beltran over Nava in LF, but I think it's worth it, because you can endure a lot of different scenarios where people miss time and still have a very deep and dangerous lineup.
 

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Napoli and Beltran won't be on the same roster in Boston unless it's on a team other than the Red Sox.  Beltran replacing Napoli at roughly the same salary is essentially a wash.  Beltran signed in addition to Napoli to essentially replace the Nava/Gomes platoon in LF is spending roughly $10M more for what is arguably not even a marginal upgrade.
 

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nothumb said:
Without Napoli and with Beltran, you have Nava, Carp, Hassan, maybe WMB all in the mix for AB at first, with Nava also getting a fair bit of time in the OF. I think you can reasonably project similar or even improved production from the combination of 1B and LF relative to 2013 with that approach. I agree that signing Beltran basically forces a Gomes trade. Instead you want a 5th OF who plays good defense, but you don't have to be too picky about which side of the plate he hits from.
So what I'm reading here is that you have Beltran, Nava, Carp, Hassan and WMB, plus a "5th OF who plays good defense," all on the roster. That's six out of 13 position-player slots. Let's see how that breaks down:
 
starting lineup.....
 
C -- Salty (let's say)
1B -- Carp (let's say)
2B -- Pedroia
SS -- Bogaerts
3B -- WMB
LF -- Beltran
CF -- JBJ
RF -- Victorino
DH -- Ortiz
 
You have four slots left, and three of them are taken up by Nava, Hassan, and the mystery 5th OF. So what are we going to dispense with -- a backup catcher or a utility infielder?
 
Too many people for too few jobs. Something's gotta give. You can't have five outfielders and a platoon at first base, not unless you're ready to give up a bullpen slot.
 
EDIT: I note that BestCatch made more or less the same point, like, 10 posts up, but it seems to bear repeating.
 

radsoxfan

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Nava is a LHH. (I don't care what it says on his baseball card, for purposes of roster construction, he's a LHH.) How the hell do he and Carp split time at 1B? That's a non-starter. If Nava's primary role is at 1B, then he and Carp are the quintessence of redundant.
 
 
I must have missed the post where someone advocated Nava as some sort of RHH platoon partner for Carp.
 
The point is that some of the depth from last season at LF can be shifted to 1B if Beltran essentially replaces Napoli on the roster.  Are you expecting Carp to be perfectly healthy the entire season?  What if Nava is signficantly better on D at 1B than Carp, or happens to hit really well against a particular pitcher?
 
Nava can get some time at 1B next season as a LHH, even if Carp is on the roster.  Deep depth..... 
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Did the Braves move back?
 
Just covering myself in case they both sign with the same team and come back to Fenway on an opposing team.  They'd technically be on the same roster in Boston. :blink:
 

radsoxfan

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Savin Hillbilly said:
So what I'm reading here is that you have Beltran, Nava, Carp, Hassan and WMB, plus a "5th OF who plays good defense," all on the roster. That's six out of 13 position-player slots. Let's see how that breaks down:
 
starting lineup.....
 
C -- Salty (let's say)
1B -- Carp (let's say)
2B -- Pedroia
SS -- Bogaerts
3B -- WMB
LF -- Beltran
CF -- JBJ
RF -- Victorino
DH -- Ortiz
 
You have four slots left, and three of them are taken up by Nava, Hassan, and the mystery 5th OF. So what are we going to dispense with -- a backup catcher or a utility infielder?
 
Too many people for too few jobs. Something's gotta give. You can't have five outfielders and a platoon at first base, not unless you're ready to give up a bullpen slot.
 
 
First of all, I also don't think you really need a good defensive 5th outfielder if JBJ and Victorino are both on the roster.
 
I also think you're looking at this far too concretely this early in the offseason.  Who knows how the 25 man roster will shake out, who will be riding the Pawtucket shuttle, who will get injured, who will hit terribly and take them out of the mix for playing time.  
 
There will be a lot of positional overlap with Nava and WMB who can shift to back up a couple of positions.  If Hassan is on the roster and can play 1B, he also is likely backing up OF.  The Sox want to give themselves options, and have solid major leaguers who can fit into multiple roles.  All the guys you mentioned are reasonable candidates to be helpful this season, you don't have to worry about the 25 man roster yet, especially if some of the players are team controlled minimum salaried guys with options.
 

Super Nomario

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Savin Hillbilly said:
He played 116 games, but only got 67 outfield starts. In fact, the Sox ranked near the bottom of the league in OF starts by guys other than their top 3, at 127 -- and that was with a semi-platoon in LF and plenty of time lost to injury at the other two spots.
My point is, 4th OF play a lot. 127 starts is virtually a starting role. I don't expect that to go down if they sign Beltran
 
Savin Hillbilly said:
If we sign Beltran we sign him to be the full-time LF. We're not paying him what he will cost to platoon with Daniel Nava. You could argue that the 4th OF will still get lots of playing time because JBJ may falter or Victorino may get hurt--but that's hardly an encouraging argument, considering that in the Beltran/Nava scenario our other two OFs will not be adequate defensive subs for either of those guys.
I agree, Beltran would be the full-time LF. But I think the 4th OF would still get lots of playing time, because things happen, and because the 4th OF is effectively backing up all three OF spots and DH, and maybe 1B, too.
 
Is a Nava / Victorino / Beltran outfield really a disaster defensively? Nava started 51 games in RF this year and Victorino 15 in CF (and he was a regular CF as recently as 2012). It's not ideal but realistically lineups without your starters aren't ideal by definition.
 

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Beltran for $36 million for 3 years would be an overpay but, arguably, less of a gamble than a similar contract for Napoli.  Beltran, like Ortiz, is trying to strongly finish a likely HOF career. The loss of the draft pick isn't a significant hindrance with extra comparable selections presumably coming in for Napoli, Drew and Ellsbury.  Beltran in LF would probably improve their defense with Bradley in CF.  Either Nava or Carp would move in at 1B with one of them likely dealt to fill another need.  The same could be true for Gomes, particularly if Chris Young (younger and a better defender in the same price range) makes more sense as a 4th outfielder who can play in all 3 OF spots when needed. Wouldn't their already good defense be even better overall assuming that Nava or Carp aren't much of a defensive downgrade?  Beltran would be a defensive upgrade for Nava/Gomes.  This only makes sense if Napoli won't return.  This makes one of Nava or Carp expendable. Adding Chris Young as a 4th outfielder who can play every position well ought to be a Gomes upgrade.  
 
Arguably, Beltran as regular LF is an overall upgrade there.  WMB at 3B will be an improvement if the 2012 rather than the 2013 version shows up next season.  Bogaerts improves over Drew overall.  Carp or Nava, particularly with a RH platoon partner, won't be much of a Napoli downgrade.  Young, because he can play any OF position would be an overall Gomes upgrade with comparable if not better past offensive performance before 2013 predictable.
 

Drek717

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radsoxfan said:
 
First of all, I also don't think you really need a good defensive 5th outfielder if JBJ and Victorino are both on the roster.
 
I also think you're looking at this far too concretely this early in the offseason.  Who knows how the 25 man roster will shake out, who will be riding the Pawtucket shuttle, who will get injured, who will hit terribly and take them out of the mix for playing time.  
 
There will be a lot of positional overlap with Nava and WMB who can shift to back up a couple of positions.  If Hassan is on the roster and can play 1B, he also is likely backing up OF.  The Sox want to give themselves options, and have solid major leaguers who can fit into multiple roles.  All the guys you mentioned are reasonable candidates to be helpful this season, you don't have to worry about the 25 man roster yet, especially if some of the players are team controlled minimum salaried guys with options.
We can look at the Pawtucket shuttle options right now and see that without a free agent signing/resigning (Ellsbury) this team has exactly two players you wouldn't be ashamed of having start in CF at the ML level.  JBJ and Victorino.  Victorino also likely can't do it every day without wearing down, and looked like a significantly better fit in Fenway's RF than CF.  They also at current are the only known quantities capable of playing Fenway's large RF.  
 
Nava can't do it adequately.  
Gomes and Carp aren't even worth considering.  
Hassan's biggest knock as an OF is a lack of range, killing his viability in Fenway's RF.  
Brentz missed a bunch of time with an injury and was looking like a guy who needed a second go round at AAA as it was.  
Who even knows what Ryan Kalish is now but he wasn't a Fenway quality CF before his medical sojourn.  
Linares moved backwards down to AA to start last season.  
Shannon Wilkerson can't hit AA pitching.  
All that leaves is Alex Castellanos who they just traded for and we aren't even sure if he's an OF.  He's a 3B/2B naturally who has just recently been working in the OF, but almost no time at CF.  He might be a RF option at best.
 
The real dilemma about the 5th OF job is that signing a worthwhile 5th OF is really the only legitimate way to add depth to the CF and RF options before the 2014 season starts, and if the organization's approach to last off-season will carry over into this one that is likely a high priority for them, otherwise they sink and swim with both the health and performances of JBJ and Victorino, sans safety net.  It makes the Beltran rumors sound like smoke from the Beltran camp trying to drum up offers from Baltimore and New York.  That or there is a deal in the works to trade Nava.
 

radsoxfan

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Drek717 said:
We can look at the Pawtucket shuttle options right now and see that without a free agent signing/resigning (Ellsbury) this team has exactly two players you wouldn't be ashamed of having start in CF at the ML level.  JBJ and Victorino.  Victorino also likely can't do it every day without wearing down, and looked like a significantly better fit in Fenway's RF than CF.  They also at current are the only known quantities capable of playing Fenway's large RF.  
 
Nava can't do it adequately.  
 
It would be nice to have a 3rd great defensive outfielder in the pipeline, but hardly a necessity.  Two above average defensive CFs on your team is already more than most have.  Nava isn't good defensively in RF at Fenway, but the team was willing to keep him on the roster as essentially the backup RF most of the season.   Seems reasonable they would be OK doing that again.
 
Sure, if JBJ or Victorino has a major injury and will be out for months, they might have to make a move. And if it turns out they can get someone like Chris Young on a super cheap deal this offseason, they could go for it.  But I dont think having a great defensive 5th OF is a huge priority, particularly when you can often hide someone in LF at Fenway. If anything, they might be more likely to make a prospect trade so they have someone in AAA who can play Fenway RF decently in case of an emergency.
 

Drek717

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radsoxfan said:
 
It would be nice to have a 3rd great defensive outfielder in the pipeline, but hardly a necessity.  Two above average defensive CFs on your team is already more than most have.  Nava isn't good defensively in RF at Fenway, but the team was willing to keep him on the roster as essentially the backup RF most of the season.   Seems reasonable they would be OK doing that again.
 
Sure, if JBJ or Victorino has a major injury and will be out for months, they might have to make a move. And if it turns out they can get someone like Chris Young on a super cheap deal this offseason, they could go for it.  But I dont think having a great defensive 5th OF is a huge priority, particularly when you can often hide someone in LF at Fenway. If anything, they might be more likely to make a prospect trade so they have someone in AAA who can play Fenway RF decently in case of an emergency.
Nava was the backup OF for a team with JBJ in AAA, already on the 40 man roster and who had already used his option when he broke camp as part of the 25 man roster and then sent down when Ortiz got healthy.  He was a short ride away on any given day to provide a legitimate defensive option if needed.  There is no one like that in AAA if JBJ is starting in CF.
 
The 5th OF on this team without JBJ stashed in AAA isn't really the 5th OF as long as we're riding the Nava/Gomes platoon in LF.  The 5th guy is then the primary backup to the CF and RF for any multi-game injury.  That is a rather important person to have around.  The team used the flexibility by having JBJ in Pawtucket to carry a defensively worthless 5th OF/1B in Carp.  That luxury has evaporated now.  If Mike Carp isn't the starting 1B he doesn't have a place on the roster and if you add someone like Beltran neither does Daniel Nava.  The only way Gomes has a home in the later case is if they FO opts to platoon JBJ and Gomes via Victorino taking CF, Beltran moving to RF, and Gomes playing LF.
 
If they aren't bringing back Napoli then Carp has a home, but not one he can practically share with Nava.  If you bring in someone like Beltran, Ethier, Choo, etc. it'd be far better to trade Nava now as a sell high candidate than to turn him into a poor corner OF/1B swing man who only sees ~300 ABs, likely with too many of them coming as a RHH.
 
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