The Beltran Option

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Drek717

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Montana Fan said:
Drek, don't you think Peavy has the potential to be a pillow type player as you've been talking about elsewhere? If healthy I think he could get a QO next offseason. Heck, James projects him at 11-7 and 3.31. I might rather have those numbers and a supplemental pick over trading him.
He is, but that can't stop the team from getting a 26 year old SP with front line starter potential.  He'll bring something back in return if he was traded because the Sox got Tanaka that would add a ton of stability to the rotation long term.  The Sox have a lot of promising arms but none of them are Buchholz/Lester type prospects up to this point.  They could all still flame out or wind up as back of the rotation guys.  Tanaka would be a huge CYA pick up with more upside than pretty much anyone in the minors other than Owens.
 

Devizier

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What if Tanaka sucks?
 
You have Darvish on one hand, and Matsuzaka on the other.
 
Projection systems, IIRC, loved them both.
 

snowmanny

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Devizier said:
What if Tanaka sucks? Projections translated from Japanese ball have not been very accurate.
Then you have a ~$12 Million dollar player who sucks and your international scouting department has a lot of explaining to do. Are you saying they should never go in on these Abreu, Darvish, Cespedes, Puig, Matsuzaka type-players?

I'd much rather see them devote that sort of salary to a potential top of the rotation starter than to a 37 year old with clearly declining skills.
 

LeoCarrillo

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Kinda weird the Yankees haven't been bigger players lately on Internationals, given that they have money to burn yet luxury tax concerns.

Their track record is mixed: score on Matsui, whiff on Igawa and gave up too soon on Contreras.
 

LeoCarrillo

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Of course, they're reportedly ready to outbid all on Tanaka and they continue to give away picks, so I'm sure it's a-comin'.
 

chrisfont9

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snowmanny said:
Then you have a ~$12 Million dollar player who sucks and your international scouting department has a lot of explaining to do. Are you saying they should never go in on these Abreu, Darvish, Cespedes, Puig, Matsuzaka type-players?

I'd much rather see them devote that sort of salary to a potential top of the rotation starter than to a 37 year old with clearly declining skills.
Matsuzaka is the "biggest bust" but he still rang up 11 WAR in his first four seasons, which cost the Sox about $31mil in salary. In the end it was a poor deal, especially if you count the posting fee, but while he was healthy that $3m/WAR rate of return was better than what you could get (now) on the FA market. Better examples:
 
Darvish: 9 WAR/$15 mil
Cespedes: 6 WAR/$15 mil
Puig: 5 WAR/3.7 mil (SSS)
Hisashi Iwakuma: 9 WAR/$8mil
Noriachi Aoki: 6.5 WAR/ $3 mil
Tsuyoshi Nishioka: -2.4 WAR/ $6 mil
 
etc. Of course, only Aoki, Nishioka, Darvish and Matsuzaka came via posting, rest were Intl FAs.
 
Anyway, while each situation will give us plenty to argue over, it seems like there's a decent trend of salary costs per WAR being a bit of a bargain thru the international or posting route.
 

Devizier

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snowmanny said:
Then you have a ~$12 Million dollar player who sucks and your international scouting department has a lot of explaining to do. Are you saying they should never go in on these Abreu, Darvish, Cespedes, Puig, Matsuzaka type-players?

I'd much rather see them devote that sort of salary to a potential top of the rotation starter than to a 37 year old with clearly declining skills.
That's exactly what I meant, which is why I wrote that.

Firstly, posting fees cost real dollars. The luxury tax is a "soft" cap, but the Sox are loathe to cross it. Why is that?

Second, you seem to have confused me with someone who wants to sign Beltran. Nope, my point was that the Red Sox would be poorly suited to trade a good player that they control on a short term contract in order to take a >$100M gamble on someone they don't. Why not just spend that money on Ellsbury?
 

HriniakPosterChild

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Devizier said:
That's exactly what I meant, which is why I wrote that.

Firstly, posting fees cost real dollars. The luxury tax is a "soft" cap, but the Sox are loathe to cross it. Why is that?

Second, you seem to have confused me with someone who wants to sign Beltran. Nope, my point was that the Red Sox would be poorly suited to trade a good player that they control on a short term contract in order to take a >$100M gamble on someone they don't. Why not just spend that money on Ellsbury?
 
Because they would like to see revenue sharing money come back to them, which is going to happen if they stay under the cap. The Red Sox understand that having someone send them money for a change is a good thing.
 

Devizier

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
Because they would like to see revenue sharing money come back to them, which is going to happen if they stay under the cap. The Red Sox understand that having someone send them money for a change is a good thing.
 
It was a rhetorical question.
 

The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Devizier said:
What if Tanaka sucks?
 
You have Darvish on one hand, and Matsuzaka on the other.
 
Projection systems, IIRC, loved them both.
"Love" isn't a binary thing. Darvish put up even better stats in Japan than Matsuzaka, and he's been the better pitcher. I think you're also forgetting how good Daisuke was in his first two years, particularly 2008. He got hurt in 2009 (probably partially owing to overuse in Japan, which, granted, also may be a concern with Tanaka) and wasn't the same afterward. It's hard to generalize about these things, but apart from Kei Igawa I can't think of an ex-NPB SP who was a huge bust in recent years. Hisashi Iwakuma and Hiroki Kuroda, on the other hand, have been massive successes.
 

SaveBooFerriss

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
"Love" isn't a binary thing. Darvish put up even better stats in Japan than Matsuzaka, and he's been the better pitcher. I think you're also forgetting how good Daisuke was in his first two years, particularly 2008. He got hurt in 2009 (probably partially owing to overuse in Japan, which, granted, also may be a concern with Tanaka) and wasn't the same afterward. It's hard to generalize about these things, but apart from Kei Igawa I can't think of an ex-NPB SP who was a huge bust in recent years. Hisashi Iwakuma and Hiroki Kuroda, on the other hand, have been massive successes.
 
I always wondered how Kei Igawa's career would have been if he had started in SD or Seattle.  He was really jerked around a lot in NY and didn't have the stuff to be an AL East pitcher.  
 

Devizier

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
"Love" isn't a binary thing. Darvish put up even better stats in Japan than Matsuzaka, and he's been the better pitcher. I think you're also forgetting how good Daisuke was in his first two years, particularly 2008. He got hurt in 2009 (probably partially owing to overuse in Japan, which, granted, also may be a concern with Tanaka) and wasn't the same afterward. It's hard to generalize about these things, but apart from Kei Igawa I can't think of an ex-NPB SP who was a huge bust in recent years. Hisashi Iwakuma and Hiroki Kuroda, on the other hand, have been massive successes.
 
I remember Matsuzaka in 2008; I was truly hoping that his mainline stats were more reflective of his ability than his peripherals (a la Matt Cain). In any event, Matsuzaka cost $100 million in real dollars and was arguably worth less than half that.
 

nvalvo

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Devizier said:
 
I remember Matsuzaka in 2008; I was truly hoping that his mainline stats were more reflective of his ability than his peripherals (a la Matt Cain). In any event, Matsuzaka cost $100 million in real dollars and was arguably worth less than half that.
 
Another way to think about that is that the Sox paid $50m for the right to sign him to a six year contract at an annual rate that he more than earned in the first two healthy years. Per fWAR, he produced a surplus of about $16m in 2007-8: he was paid about $14m for about $31m of value over that span.  
 
If he hadn't gotten hurt, or even if he had gotten hurt later on in the deal, there could have been sufficient surplus value in that contract, relative to the rapidly increasing costs of FA starting pitching, to more or less cover the posting fee. As it turned out, he got hurt and there wasn't. The FA starting pitching market is a train wreck. Pettitte was the only 2006-7 FA starting pitcher (seriously — look at this list) to outperform Matsuzaka over the life of the deal. Assuming Pettitte wouldn't have come to Boston, we could have spent the money on Jason Schmidt! Or Barry Zito! Jeff Suppan!
 
Bidding huge dollars for Tanaka might make sense in a world where Ricky Nolasco just got 4/$50m. 
 

E5 Yaz

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soxhop411 said:
RT @Buster_ESPN: Carlos Beltran is said to have a three-year offer for $48 million in hand.
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN
 
Please not the Sox
 
Has to be KC
 
I say this because they know they'd have to overpay to bring him back. Could be NYY, but the stories have said they just want to go 2 years with him.
 
hop, after what the Sox have been doing with short deals with older players, what makes you think they'd break their policy for Beltran?
 
 
Olney says it could be the Mariners
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Has to be KC
 
I say this because they know they'd have to overpay to bring him back. Could be NYY, but the stories have said they just want to go 2 years with him.
 
hop, after what the Sox have been doing with short deals with older players, what makes you think they'd break their policy for Beltran?
 
He left off the second sentence of Olney's tweet saying that the Mariners have been quite aggressive in pursuing Beltran, so it may be them.  Have to agree that there's no way the Sox are going 3/48 for Beltran.  I haven't believed any of the reports that they're even interested aside from possibly playing "mystery team" to drive up his price for the MFY.  Seems someone else is doing that job instead.
 

soxhop411

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Has to be KC
 
I say this because they know they'd have to overpay to bring him back. Could be NYY, but the stories have said they just want to go 2 years with him.
 
hop, after what the Sox have been doing with short deals with older players, what makes you think they'd break their policy for Beltran?
 
 
Olney says it could be the Mariners
 
Now that I think about it, it is most likely not the Sox, given he would have taken the offer (winning team etc) so it might be KC or SEA like you said. 
 
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