The Beltran Option

[67WasBest]

Signing someone for their post season resume is something stupid teams do.

Also, it is entirely possible that this is not a playoff team next year, and we have to be okay with that.

If you want to isolate that point then yes, I agree; but it was offered as a reason why Beltran would create separation for himself from other options.  
 
I accept the playoffs are never a guarantee, but to not see this team as having the framework to be favorites for one of the 5 playoff spots for 2014 is wrong imo.  

 

[Super Nomario]

My point is regardless of who they sign and what picks they get back, to sign Beltran costs them their first round pick. I don't really care how many supplemental picks they have coming and the destination of Napoli is neither here nor there. Suggesting that it "only costs them the net difference between their pick and their first supplemental" is inaccurate and completely missing the point. It costs them a top 25 pick to sign beltran. Which is considerably more than the difference between that pick and their first supplemental.

Beltran, in a best case scenario, is probably producing 5-6 WAR over the next two years at a cost of $30M+. He's 37, would project to play LF and doesn't fill a need, nor even guarantees an upgrade over the status quo. To sacrifice a top 25 pick - which in the long run should provide much more value while being cost controlled or could presumably eventually be a valuable trade chip in a cpl years - is, IMO, a poor way to use your resources. They should be able to garner much more value out of the pick than they will get from Beltran, who is not a difference maker for this team next year or the year after.

If you want to make the argument that someone like McCann - who will be pricey but fills a huge hole and likely can at an elite level for 4 years or more - then that is a much better use of the pick.

Most draft picks, even top 25 ones, are never worth 6 WAR for their careers. The hit rate on first rounders is probably about 25%. This article pegs the average value of a 15-30 pick over his 6-year career at 2.72 fWAR total (less than 0.5 WAR / year).
 
As far as whether Beltran fills a need, I don't think the right way to think about it is just comparing his upgrade to JBJ (or Nava). You don't lose JBJ or Nava by signing Beltran; they're still there, just in smaller roles. You can start Beltran and Victorino and let Bradley, Nava, and Gomes duke it out for the other starting role and the 4th / 5th OF spots, stashing JBJ in Pawtucket if he doesn't look ready. Any injury to one of the OF or Ortiz (or maybe even 1B) and you get to plug in another starting-caliber player. He's not just a hedge against Bradley not being ready; he's a hedge against any one of 5 or 6 things, at which point the likelihood that one or two of them is going to happen is pretty high. As a side-note, this logic also applies to re-signing Ellsbury (or adding a different quality OF).
 
There are risks and negatives to signing Beltran - his age, his trajectory over the past couple years, including defense - and I don't think I'd go three years on him, but another starting-caliber OF is one of the best ways to improve the team IMO.

 

[DJnVa]

IMO, if they sign Beltran, it's for his post season resume.  This team will be a playoff team next year,

 
Did this year teach you nothing?
 
There's no predicting that.
 

I accept the playoffs are never a guarantee, but to not see this team as having the framework to be favorites for one of the 5 playoff spots for 2014 is wrong imo. 
 

 
Yeah, but that's not what you said.

 

[ivanvamp]

IMO, there's no easy way to improve the team for 2014.  You look at their lineup, and it's filled with guys in roles that make sense for them, and they really produced at a high level.  Their LF production was near the top of MLB.  Victorino was a 6.2 bWAR player.  Salty had his best offensive season and there just aren't many better hitting catchers out there.  McCann could be one of them, but even that's no guarantee moving forward.  Pedroia wasn't at his best, but he was still very good (116 ops+, 6.5 WAR).  Ortiz was tremendous.  Where to upgrade?  Then you look at the places where they could lose someone, and the situation gets murkier.  
 
Ellsbury?  There is nobody that is available out there that is likely to give you what Ellsbury did in 2013 (114 ops+, 5.8 bWAR).  I mentioned Salty already.  Napoli gave them a 129 ops+ and 4.1 bWAR.  Those guys don't just grow on trees and become easily available.  
 
The two most likely places for offensive improvement, to me, come at SS and 3b, where Boston's production was below average.  Bogaerts has the potential to be a real upgrade at SS, and a full season of Middlebrooks - even if he just gives you a full year of what he gave you in 2013 - also represents an improvement.  Compare Middlebrooks' 2013 projected over 595 ab compared with the 595 ab the Sox got from 3b in total last year (which obviously included Middlebrooks' numbers):
 
Middlebrooks:  70 r, 29 hr, 84 rbi, 253 total bases, .696 ops
Sox 3b in 2013:  70 r, 20 hr, 79 rbi, 235 total bases, .683 ops
 
So it would be a little improvement at 3b.
 
You're not likely to improve on Napoli's numbers at 1b or Ellsbury's in CF.  
 
Pitching?  You can hope for a full season from Clay, and hope Lester's postseason run and otherwise solid 2013 season carries over, and maybe his era drops to the low 3's.  Lackey probably can't pitch much better.  Doubront may continue to improve, but I don't think the odds are good that Peavy improves upon his 2013 season.  And no way Uehara can pitch any better.
 
So I'm not saying that there isn't room for this team to improve - just that there's no easy way to do it, no obvious path to improvement.  Or even to maintain the status quo.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So I'm not saying that there isn't room for this team to improve - just that there's no easy way to do it, no obvious path to improvement.  Or even to maintain the status quo.  

 
But isn't this the wrong question to ask about a team that won 97 games with a 100-win pythag? The realistic question isn't how to improve the team, it's how much of a dropoff we're willing to accept, and what we have to do to ensure that it's no worse than that.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

IMO, there's no easy way to improve the team for 2014.  You look at their lineup, and it's filled with guys in roles that make sense for them, and they really produced at a high level.  Their LF production was near the top of MLB.  Victorino was a 6.2 bWAR player.  Salty had his best offensive season and there just aren't many better hitting catchers out there.  McCann could be one of them, but even that's no guarantee moving forward.  Pedroia wasn't at his best, but he was still very good (116 ops+, 6.5 WAR).  Ortiz was tremendous.  Where to upgrade?  Then you look at the places where they could lose someone, and the situation gets murkier.  
 
Ellsbury?  There is nobody that is available out there that is likely to give you what Ellsbury did in 2013 (114 ops+, 5.8 bWAR).  I mentioned Salty already.  Napoli gave them a 129 ops+ and 4.1 bWAR.  Those guys don't just grow on trees and become easily available.  
 
The two most likely places for offensive improvement, to me, come at SS and 3b, where Boston's production was below average.  Bogaerts has the potential to be a real upgrade at SS, and a full season of Middlebrooks - even if he just gives you a full year of what he gave you in 2013 - also represents an improvement.  Compare Middlebrooks' 2013 projected over 595 ab compared with the 595 ab the Sox got from 3b in total last year (which obviously included Middlebrooks' numbers):
 
Middlebrooks:  70 r, 29 hr, 84 rbi, 253 total bases, .696 ops
Sox 3b in 2013:  70 r, 20 hr, 79 rbi, 235 total bases, .683 ops
 
So it would be a little improvement at 3b.
 
You're not likely to improve on Napoli's numbers at 1b or Ellsbury's in CF.  
 
Pitching?  You can hope for a full season from Clay, and hope Lester's postseason run and otherwise solid 2013 season carries over, and maybe his era drops to the low 3's.  Lackey probably can't pitch much better.  Doubront may continue to improve, but I don't think the odds are good that Peavy improves upon his 2013 season.  And no way Uehara can pitch any better.
 
So I'm not saying that there isn't room for this team to improve - just that there's no easy way to do it, no obvious path to improvement.  Or even to maintain the status quo.  

Production at SS was below average? Drew was in the Top 5 based on wOBA and wRC+?  And he was at least average to slightly above average on defense. How good do you think XB will be in 2014?

 

[ivanvamp]

But isn't this the wrong question to ask about a team that won 97 games with a 100-win pythag? The realistic question isn't how to improve the team, it's how much of a dropoff we're willing to accept, and what we have to do to ensure that it's no worse than that.

I understand what you're saying, and it's possible for them to win the World Series in 2014 even if they have some drop off. I'm really trying to say that there's a good chance they'll lose Ellsbury and Drew, and it appears that it's even possible they lose Napoli and Salty.

How can they stay in contention losing all that? Well, like I said, I think Bogaerts and a full season of Middlebrooks will help, and I think Pedroia can be better. But otherwise, I'm not confident that they won't take a pretty sizable hit, maybe even enough to knock them out of the playoffs.

Now, if playing Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, JBJ, and bringing other kids online in 2014 causes them to miss the playoffs in 2014, but sets them up for 5-6 years of being one of the best teams in baseball, is that ok for most of us?

Go back to the end of 2012. I thought that the plan for 2013 was to win enough games to have relevant baseball in September while letting e kids develop. Making the playoffs would be a total bonus. The I figured 2014 would be the year they really start to transition the kids into the majors, so we'd see around 85-88 wins, then it would be 2015 where we start to really see the payoff.

Obviously the remarkable 2013 season is causing many people to rethink this timetable. Is 85-88 wins in 2014 with the kids, setting them up for 2015 and beyond acceptable? Hard to say. I bet the opinion on that here at SoSH is pretty split.

 

[ivanvamp]

Production at SS was below average? Drew was in the Top 5 based on wOBA and wRC+?  And he was at least average to slightly above average on defense. How good do you think XB will be in 2014?

Yeah fair point. It shows that the SS position was not so strong, IMO.

Nevertheless, I think they can improve there. I expect Bogaerts can be an 18-25 hr, near .800 ops guy. But maybe not in 2014.

So point taken...maybe that's another position where they aren't likely to improve, making the overall task even tougher.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
The two most likely places for offensive improvement, to me, come at SS and 3b, where Boston's production was below average.    

 
On what basis do you think that they had below average production from Drew?  If you look at wOBA, the only SS better than him in 2013 were Hanley, Tulo, Peralta, Lowrie, Reyes and Desmond.
 
Never mind.  Abs beat me to it while I was looking up the numbers.

 

[Super Nomario]

Now, if playing Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, JBJ, and bringing other kids online in 2014 causes them to miss the playoffs in 2014, but sets them up for 5-6 years of being one of the best teams in baseball, is that ok for most of us?

Is there any evidence that, say, JBJ every day in Boston in 2014 will make him better in 2015-16-17-18-etc. than playing him everyday in Pawtucket or playing him as a fourth OF in Boston?
 

Go back to the end of 2012. I thought that the plan for 2013 was to win enough games to have relevant baseball in September while letting e kids develop. Making the playoffs would be a total bonus. The I figured 2014 would be the year they really start to transition the kids into the majors, so we'd see around 85-88 wins, then it would be 2015 where we start to really see the payoff.

Obviously the remarkable 2013 season is causing many people to rethink this timetable. Is 85-88 wins in 2014 with the kids, setting them up for 2015 and beyond acceptable? Hard to say. I bet the opinion on that here at SoSH is pretty split.

I think you can have your cake and eat it, too. Work in a couple of the kids, sign a couple short-term deals that don't compromise the long-term future so you can compete in the next year or two as well. I don't see why this has to be an either-or.

 

[DanoooME]

How can they stay in contention losing all that? Well, like I said, I think Bogaerts and a full season of Middlebrooks will help, and I think Pedroia can be better. But otherwise, I'm not confident that they won't take a pretty sizable hit, maybe even enough to knock them out of the playoffs.

 
Don't forget the pitching side of the ledger.  Buchholz basically pitched half a season (very well); they get Peavy for a full year.  The team's worst starter goes to the pen for now.  There's still small areas of improvement for Lackey and Lester.  And a lot of potential improvement from Doubront.  It's tough to see Uehara and Breslow get better, but Tazawa could improve, they'll get Miller back and there's always the chance to pick up some guys on the cheap that could come through (though basically the RP pool is a crapshoot) or some of the other guys (young and not-so-young) already on the team could make contributions.
 
Admittedly, the Sox had a lot go right to win the World Series last year.  And it's really easy to see a scenario where everything goes wrong this year instead and they end up with 75-80 wins.  I'm not convinced a Beltran or an Ellsbury is going to magically improve the team in 2014 and especially beyond that.
 
I want to see Bradley in CF, so that means the platoon has to go or they pass on these guys (Beltran/Ells).  And for the money they are going to cost, along with the corresponding risk, and I just don't see the value there to justify spending the cash.  If that means an 85-90 win team, so be it.  The team contends now AND likely into the future as well.
 
 
edit: clarity

 

[ivanvamp]

Is there any evidence that, say, JBJ every day in Boston in 2014 will make him better in 2015-16-17-18-etc. than playing him everyday in Pawtucket or playing him as a fourth OF in Boston?
 

I think you can have your cake and eat it, too. Work in a couple of the kids, sign a couple short-term deals that don't compromise the long-term future so you can compete in the next year or two as well. I don't see why this has to be an either-or.

But what short term deals? Beltran? I like him, but the Sox' LF production this year was terrific. 1b? Who can they get that will likely outperform Napoli's 2013 numbers? C? Salty was actually pretty darned good, and McCann can't be had for short years.

 

[mauf]

But what short term deals? Beltran? I like him, but the Sox' LF production this year was terrific. 1b? Who can they get that will likely outperform Napoli's 2013 numbers? C? Salty was actually pretty darned good, and McCann can't be had for short years.

 
The 2014 Sox will not score as many runs as this year's club. Even if they brought back the entire team, regression to the mean and age-related decline would take a toll. The only position where the Sox are likely to improve is third base.
 
None of which is to say we should be pessimistic -- there are several reasons to expect the pitching to improve. But any discussion of retooling the lineup must begin with the assumption that next year's team will score fewer runs than this year's.

 

[NDame616]

 
Don't forget the pitching side of the ledger.  Buchholz basically pitched half a season (very well); they get Peavy for a full year.  The team's worst starter goes to the pen for now.  There's still small areas of improvement for Lackey and Lester.  And a lot of potential improvement from Doubront.  It's tough to see Uehara and Breslow get better, but Tazawa could improve, they'll get Miller back and there's always the chance to pick up some guys on the cheap that could come through (though basically the RP pool is a crapshoot) or some of the other guys (young and not-so-young) already on the team could make contributions.
 
Admittedly, the Sox had a lot go right to win the World Series last year.  And it's really easy to see a scenario where everything goes wrong this year instead and they end up with 75-80 wins.  I'm not convinced a Beltran or an Ellsbury is going to magically improve the team in 2014 and especially beyond that.
 
I want to see Bradley in CF, so that means the platoon has to go or they pass on these guys (Beltran/Ells).  And for the money they are going to cost, along with the corresponding risk, and I just don't see the value there to justify spending the cash.  If that means an 85-90 win team, so be it.  The team contends now AND likely into the future as well.
 
 
edit: clarity

 
Wait....you expect MORE from Lackey this year than last? I think the 18th best ERA in the league, and 10th in WHIP, is probably the most we can expect from him.....

 

[Drek717]

 
The 2014 Sox will not score as many runs as this year's club. Even if they brought back the entire team, regression to the mean and age-related decline would take a toll. The only position where the Sox are likely to improve is third base.

I wouldn't say that is necessarily a given.
 
3B could see not just improvement, but significant improvement.  If Nava builds on 2013 at all and Gomes rebounds to his career norms against LHP a straight platoon in LF could out-perform the 2013 numbers.
 
Brian McCann is a reasonable bet to out-hit even 2013 Salty if they were to sign him.  Mike Napoli had a solid season despite better road numbers than home numbers.  If he is resigned and the Fenway bump he had shown his entire career and everyone expected out of him emerges in 2014 he could be a more productive hitter, possibly by a good amount.
 
And even for the short term a slight regression from Victorino offensively but while playing CF and the addition of Beltran could possibly out-hit the RF/CF tandem of 2013.
 
It's all about how much money they want to spend and picks they want to give up, relative to what the market has for all these players.  It's possible for the 2014 team to have a better projected line than the 2013 team's actual line with the right moves.
 
That isn't likely because the guys who could make that happen are all valued rather highly by other, much more needy, teams.  The Red Sox don't need Beltran with JBJ in the wings so when other teams start talking about 3 or even 4 years they'll walk.  They don't need Napoli with Carp in-house and Hassan as a worthwhile fallback, so if he gets 3 years somewhere he's probably gone.  The Yankees desperately need a player like McCann and will therefore likely grossly overpay for him while the Red Sox have a lot of in-house young catching depth.
 
The roster built last winter was meant to be a bridge to giving all these guys a shot in 2014.  Just because the bridge ended in the promised land doesn't mean the front office is going to deviate from the long term plans put in place last winter.  You could even argue that the more risky options from winter 2013, Bogaerts as an ML regular at 21 and the Mike Carp reclamation project at 1B, had the strongest 2013 years to support their promotions.

 

[soxhop411]

So his demands for a 4 year deal do not seem to be true
 
 
Mark Feinsand ‏@FeinsandNYDN1m
According to officials from two different teams, Carlos Beltran has not requested a four-year deal in any preliminary negotiations.

 

[rembrat]

That makes more sense. Carlos Beltran was a FA two years ago, coming off a .910 OPS season at age 34, and signed a very modest deal with the Cards who had just won the WS. He must have left lengthier offers on the table for the chance to play with a contender. That's why I think he ends up in Boston this winter.

 

[Drek717]

So his demands for a 4 year deal do not seem to be true
 
 
Mark Feinsand ‏@FeinsandNYDN1m
According to officials from two different teams, Carlos Beltran has not requested a four-year deal in any preliminary negotiations.

I don't think he's requesting 4, but I'd bet on some team offering it as a way to land him. If both Boston and New York offer 3/$45M he'll choose the team that gives him a chance to win (Boston). So how does NYY swing that back in their favor? More money when they have a lot of holes to fill or an extra year they can worry about later? Length of contract is where a club can get irresponsible for Beltran and some team almost always gets irresponsible for good free agents.

 

[nattysez]

A lot more from Feinsand:

 
According to sources, the Yankees have set Beltran as their No. 1 target while they wait to reignite talks with Robinson Cano, for Hiroki Kuroda to decide whether he wants to return next season and for the Japanese posting system to be hammered out so righthander Masahiro Tanaka can be made available.
 
The Yankees prefer the eight-time All-Star to fellow free-agent outfielders Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz and Jacoby Ellsbury, the source said, believing he’s the perfect fit to bolster their lineup.
 
Likewise, Beltran has let it be known to those around him that the Yankees are his top choice, hoping to finally land himself in pinstripes after previous free-agent flirtations during the past decade did not work out.

***
Beltran is looking for a three-year deal, a source said, while the Yankees would like to sign him for only two. Several teams have thrown their respective hats in the ring for the 36-year-old, including the Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners and Royals.

 

 

 

[chawson]

Along with McCann slotting perfectly in their hole at catcher, Beltran seems like the other perfect fit for the Yankee lineup. They value LHHs who can take advantage of that short porch, but need to hedge against becoming too left-handed, especially with the A-Rod and Jeter concerns.
 
With Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro, and Vernon Wells still on the books (and Mason Williams possibly ready to take CF in 2015), I bet they prefer Beltran to Ellsbury.

 

[wyatt55]

Along with McCann slotting perfectly in their hole at catcher, Beltran seems like the other perfect fit for the Yankee lineup. They value LHHs who can take advantage of that short porch, but need to hedge against becoming too left-handed, especially with the A-Rod and Jeter concerns.
 
With Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro, and Vernon Wells still on the books (and Mason Williams possibly ready to take CF in 2015), I bet they prefer Beltran to Ellsbury.

Beltran goes both ways. 

 

[chawson]

Beltran goes both ways. 

 
Yeah, that's what I'm sayin.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

Along with McCann slotting perfectly in their hole at catcher, Beltran seems like the other perfect fit for the Yankee lineup. They value LHHs who can take advantage of that short porch, but need to hedge against becoming too left-handed, especially with the A-Rod and Jeter concerns.
 
With Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro, and Vernon Wells still on the books (and Mason Williams possibly ready to take CF in 2015), I bet they prefer Beltran to Ellsbury.

 
What?!!!  If he can make some major improvement, Mason Williams might be ready for AAA in 2015.  He has completely stalled as a prospect.  

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Along with McCann slotting perfectly in their hole at catcher, Beltran seems like the other perfect fit for the Yankee lineup. They value LHHs who can take advantage of that short porch, but need to hedge against becoming too left-handed, especially with the A-Rod and Jeter concerns.
 
With Soriano, Gardner, Ichiro, and Vernon Wells still on the books (and Mason Williams possibly ready to take CF in 2015), I bet they prefer Beltran to Ellsbury.

I'm enjoying this Yankee offseason.  It's not that the McCann signing is all that bad, although I think it is fairly bad.  And going 3 on Beltran probably also won't be one of the worst contracts this offseason either.  But they are never going to really build a new core if they keep giving up top picks for guys like Beltran and McCann.  So I'm all in favor of this idea.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Take this for what it's worth, but someone close to the situation told me yesterday that Beltran wants the Yankees, the Yankees want Beltran, and it's only a matter of working out the details...and it will get done.  I realize that this isn't much more information than what was out there yesterday, but it's a little more definitive, so I thought I'd share it here.

 

[Drek717]

I'm enjoying this Yankee offseason.  It's not that the McCann signing is all that bad, although I think it is fairly bad.  And going 3 on Beltran probably also won't be one of the worst contracts this offseason either.  But they are never going to really build a new core if they keep giving up top picks for guys like Beltran and McCann.  So I'm all in favor of this idea.

Too true.  They won't get any compensation for Kuroda, obviously, regardless of his choice.  The posting system issues also likely have them a bit over a barrel right now.
 
Personally I'd be all for the Red Sox rolling with in-house options at most of the "open" spots with one or two non-QO FAs brought in and use the excess cash to go for the block on Tanaka.  Flip Dempster before the posting process, splash the pot on Tanaka's posting fee, then flip one of Peavy, Doubront, or Lackey based on return (in that order of preference).  It would strengthen the Sox rotation long term with minimal luxury tax ramifications while preventing the Yankees from getting what they most desperately need, young front line pitching.  That after blowing their load on a bunch of QO'd FAs would be one hell of a monkey wrench in their re-building efforts.

 

[ivanvamp]

Too true.  They won't get any compensation for Kuroda, obviously, regardless of his choice.  The posting system issues also likely have them a bit over a barrel right now.
 
Personally I'd be all for the Red Sox rolling with in-house options at most of the "open" spots with one or two non-QO FAs brought in and use the excess cash to go for the block on Tanaka.  Flip Dempster before the posting process, splash the pot on Tanaka's posting fee, then flip one of Peavy, Doubront, or Lackey based on return (in that order of preference).  It would strengthen the Sox rotation long term with minimal luxury tax ramifications while preventing the Yankees from getting what they most desperately need, young front line pitching.  That after blowing their load on a bunch of QO'd FAs would be one hell of a monkey wrench in their re-building efforts.

 
I kind of like this plan.  Add to it signing Hart to replace Napoli (who appears to be headed towards a much bigger contract than I'd want the Sox to offer), and go with a Carp/Napoli 1b tandem, then sign Rajai Davis to be a 5th OF (to go with JBJ, Victorino, Gomes, and Nava) - he wouldn't be a bad replacement for JBJ if JBJ has to sit the bench or go back to AAA (Davis had a 1.8 WAR last year and has played a ton of CF over his career).  Brings tremendous speed off the bench, so you no longer need Berry.  Try to re-sign Salty for reasonable money.  
 
Then roll with a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Tanaka, and Doubront.  Add another bullpen piece perhaps, or simply plan to bring Bailey back to strengthen the pen midway through the year.  The lineup then becomes:
 
RF Victorino
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1b Hart/Carp
LF Gomes/Nava
3b Middlebrooks
SS Bogaerts
C Saltalamacchia
CF Bradley Jr.
 
That might not be the best lineup in the AL, but it wouldn't be bad.  It would have very good value, and have lots going for it moving forward.  And all the kids are still in the system, with more added after dealing away Peavy and Dempster.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Wait, you guys think it's reasonable to "splash the pot" to the tune of, say, $120+M on Tanaka, mostly to block the Yankees from getting him?  When we have 6 current starters, plus Webster, Owens, DLR, Ranaudo, Workman and Barnes among our top dozen prospects?  Wow.  I think I'd rather spend that money on Ellsbury.  And I don't want to spend that kind of money on Ellsbury.
 
[Edit: Sorry, I just realized that this discussion is digressing in a Beltran thread, although I did at least bring it back to our OF issues!]

 

[Drek717]

Wait, you guys think it's reasonable to "splash the pot" to the tune of, say, $120+M on Tanaka, mostly to block the Yankees from getting him?  When we have 6 current starters, plus Webster, Owens, DLR, Ranaudo, Workman and Barnes among our top dozen prospects?  Wow.  I think I'd rather spend that money on Ellsbury.  And I don't want to spend that kind of money on Ellsbury.
 
[Edit: Sorry, I just realized that this discussion is digressing in a Beltran thread, although I did at least bring it back to our OF issues!]

No, blocking would be a fringe benefit in addition to getting a young, luxury tax cost controlled SP with front of the rotation potential while being able to move two older starters in a market desperate for starters for even more prospects.  The one time cash outlay that fits outside the luxury tax is a pretty strong reason to be in on Tanaka.  Cash rich teams rarely have the opportunity to use that cash with zero penalty under today's rules.  You can't do it in the amateur draft, you can't do it international signing, you can't do it in FA.  All now have some form of caps and penalties attached.  The posting system, as of now, is the wild west for cash rich teams.
 
Anyhow, back on the subject of Beltran, it is definitely in the Sox' best interests to keep in on him, even if the end result is nothing more than driving up the price on the Yankees.  With the amount of flexible budget over the next two years that the Sox have I'd really like to see them push the AAV number high enough to where if they don't land him it's because the Yankees had to cave and give a 3rd year at a premium AAV.
 
You'd think the WS contention angle would carry more weight with Beltran, but then he did live in New York for quite a while and I believe he still owns a home there.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Good stuff, Drek. One clarification: Intrenational FAs who are at least 23 are exempt from pool money. Like Jose Dariel Abreu. (At least for the time being.)

Interestingly, some Cuban shortstop falsified his documentation last summer to make himself OLDER, and exempt from pool limitations. Now, that's a switch.

 

[Drek717]

Good stuff, Drek. One clarification: Intrenational FAs who are at least 23 are exempt from pool money. Like Jose Dariel Abreu. (At least for the time being.)

Interestingly, some Cuban shortstop falsified his documentation last summer to make himself OLDER, and exempt from pool limitations. Now, that's a switch.

Good point, and while the Sox didn't win on Jose Dariel Abreu or Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez they were supposedly in the market for both.  The fact that they were supposedly the runner up on MAG even while likely working on the Peavy trade concurrently suggests that they really don't see a problem in acquiring SPs they don't have a clear rotation spot for, knowing that league-wide need will never tie their hands when trying to move one.
 
Anyhow, Cashman also said just a few days ago that the Yankees were interested in bringing Granderson back.  They've also been tied to Choo.  So while Beltran might be their #1 target it doesn't seem like he's their only target for the OF.  I do really wonder why Granderson didn't take the QO to re-establish his value, I don't see how he beats $14M in 2014 and no one will give him a multi-year deal based on his injuries from last year.  Anyone know how long he'd have to wait to have the QO draft pick restriction lifted?  If it isn't absurdly far (like opening day) I could almost see teams wait it out until that expires.
 
I have to admit, if Granderson didn't have the QO attached I'd really like his value on a buy low deal.  Giving up a pick for him though really just saps away his appeal.  Can't get past the stigma of it giving the Yankees a pick (even though it's irrelevant, since he'll sign somewhere and most other OF options could cost one as well), or the belief that buy low guys just shouldn't cost pick compensation as well.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Drek:
All valid points, but a $75M posting fee is a still a huge amount of money that could be allocated to help address other areas of much higher need, this year or next.  They can still spend that money in a variety of ways, including, as Leo notes, spending on older international FAs, trading for someone's subsidized star at a position of need (OF, maybe 1B/3B), or extending our own players (Lester, Bogaerts, etc.).  Plus, Tanaka would still likely take up another $10M or so per year - cheap if he's a top of the rotation guy, but a significant outlay given the money currently in the starting rotation and the prospects we have coming. 
 
But yeah, I get the luxury tax implications and the dwindling number of ways for rich teams to exploit their financial advantage. .  That's why most people have the Yankees and Dodgers as the odds on, cash rich favorites to bid the most for him.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Actually, Drek, it's more like half a season. I remember Lohse almost having to sit out last year and it was mentioned.

 

[Drek717]

 

Actually, Drek, it's more like half a season. I remember Lohse almost having to sit out last year and it was mentioned.

Oof, that's a pretty stiff penalty.  Makes Granderson declining seem even more suspect, and a player non-top 10 protected teams probably have no interest in as their first QO FA addition.

 

[dbn]

Too true.  They won't get any compensation for Kuroda, obviously, regardless of his choice.  The posting system issues also likely have them a bit over a barrel right now.
 
Personally I'd be all for the Red Sox rolling with in-house options at most of the "open" spots with one or two non-QO FAs brought in and use the excess cash to go for the block on Tanaka.  Flip Dempster before the posting process, splash the pot on Tanaka's posting fee, then flip one of Peavy, Doubront, or Lackey based on return (in that order of preference).  It would strengthen the Sox rotation long term with minimal luxury tax ramifications while preventing the Yankees from getting what they most desperately need, young front line pitching.  That after blowing their load on a bunch of QO'd FAs would be one hell of a monkey wrench in their re-building efforts.

 
I kinda hate this plan.  Doubront and Lackey are already cost controlled.  They have SP minor league depth at a level unprecedented in recent history.  Nothing the Yankees do, could do, or don't do should affect what the Red Sox do this or any offseason.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo16h
NY Post's esteemed George King thinks Beltran going to Yanks over KC and Boston
 

 

[Sampo Gida]

The Red Sox supposed interest in Beltran may be nothing more than an effort to drive the price up on the Yankees.  I just don't see the need really.
 

 
I kinda hate this plan.  Doubront and Lackey are already cost controlled.  They have SP minor league depth at a level unprecedented in recent history.  Nothing the Yankees do, could do, or don't do should affect what the Red Sox do this or any offseason.

 
How is Lackey cost controlled?.  Even if he plays for the minimum in 2015, which is not certain, his AAV will still be around 14 million (if I understand the rules, never a certainty).  Also. read Bill James take in THT 2014 Annual on the certainty of pitching prospects, they just are not that certain.  It was only 2-3 years ago that the Yankees thought their pitching rotation of the future was set with the Killer B's, and that blew up on them.
 
Red Sox are sitting on more money than they know what to do with now (short of sending it to Liverpool). Between the rebates, the additional national TV money, the lower payroll, tax credits,  and the post season revenue, not to mention price hikes and increased attendance next year,  going after Tanaka might not be as foolish as it seems for reasons other than fear of the Yankees, but hurting their rebuilding efforts can't be a bad thing.     

 

[Rasputin]

The Red Sox supposed interest in Beltran may be nothing more than an effort to drive the price up on the Yankees.  I just don't see the need really.
 
 
How is Lackey cost controlled?.  Even if he plays for the minimum in 2015, which is not certain, his AAV will still be around 14 million (if I understand the rules, never a certainty).  Also. read Bill James take in THT 2014 Annual on the certainty of pitching prospects, they just are not that certain.  It was only 2-3 years ago that the Yankees thought their pitching rotation of the future was set with the Killer B's, and that blew up on them.
 
Red Sox are sitting on more money than they know what to do with now (short of sending it to Liverpool). Between the rebates, the additional national TV money, the lower payroll, tax credits,  and the post season revenue, not to mention price hikes and increased attendance next year,  going after Tanaka might not be as foolish as it seems for reasons other than fear of the Yankees, but hurting their rebuilding efforts can't be a bad thing.     

 
We don't have a first baseman, or a catcher, we can literally name our starting pitching ten or twelve guys deep before we start throwing shit at a wall, and you want to go after the pitcher that would cost the most to get,
 
The Yankees are irrelevant.

 

[nvalvo]

 
We don't have a first baseman, or a catcher, we can literally name our starting pitching ten or twelve guys deep before we start throwing shit at a wall, and you want to go after the pitcher that would cost the most to get,
 
The Yankees are irrelevant.

 
It's not just about the Yankees. It's also about trading up from, say, Peavy to Tanaka, while dealing cost-controlled pitching into a market where pitching seems poised to get shockingly expensive.
 
At the deadline, Peavy was worth Avisail Garcia plus. I'd be pretty interested to hear what sort of offers we could get for him now. 

 

[snowmanny]

 
We don't have a first baseman, or a catcher, we can literally name our starting pitching ten or
twelve guys deep before we start throwing shit at a wall, and you want to go after the pitcher that would cost the most to get,
 
The Yankees are irrelevant.

Well there's nothing that can be done about whether or not the Yankees are good, anyway.

But I would argue that whatever gaps in the lineup exist, opportunities to pick up a real middle of the order bat or a real number 1 or 2 starter - especially when the salary isn't sky high- should ALWAYS be explored. If the Red Sox believe Tanaka is that level of pitcher then Dempster and Peavy shouldn't stop them from bidding. I was disappointed and surprised when they passed on Darvish.

 

[ji oh]

...
 
 
How is Lackey cost controlled?.  Even if he plays for the minimum in 2015, which is not certain, his AAV will still be around 14 million (if I understand the rules, never a certainty).  ....

 um, what?   How does this produce an AAV of 14M?

• $15.25M
• 2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14

 

[Drek717]

 

 
I kinda hate this plan.  Doubront and Lackey are already cost controlled.  They have SP minor league depth at a level unprecedented in recent history.  Nothing the Yankees do, could do, or don't do should affect what the Red Sox do this or any offseason.

I'm a big proponent of Doubie myself and Lackey this past season was the strong #2 starter type needed to shore up the staff when Buch went down, I'm not suggesting they're just tossed out with the trash.
 
But what if the Rockies were willing to let a young, cost controlled Doubront constitute the major piece in return for Carlos Gonzalez?  Or if the Dodgers would only subsidize Kemp to the tune of ~$30M for Peavy but would give $50M over the life of Kemp's deal for Lackey, knowing they're getting a league minimum second year?
 
There are outcomes where the value coming back for Doubie or Lackey is so significantly higher that they'd be the ones you want to displace if the Sox win the Tanaka bid.

 

 
We don't have a first baseman, or a catcher, we can literally name our starting pitching ten or twelve guys deep before we start throwing shit at a wall, and you want to go after the pitcher that would cost the most to get,
 
The Yankees are irrelevant.

There is never a reason to not pursue quality young talent at any position for just money, and when about half that money is invisible to the luxury tax there is even less reason to not be in on the bidding.


 
 

The Red Sox supposed interest in Beltran may be nothing more than an effort to drive the price up on the Yankees.  I just don't see the need really.
 

 

I'd imagine they were genuinely interested assuming he stays at 2 years and the AAV doesn't get out of hand.  But I don't see them overpaying enough to out-bid the Yankees if that's Beltran preference.  Beltran coming here always depended on Beltran placing another shot at the World Series at the top of his priority list.  But then for all we know that is Beltran's preference and these recent leaks are an attempt by his agent to scare the Sox into upping their offer.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

um, what?   How does this produce an AAV of 14M?

• $15.25M
• 2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14

The AAV of the full contract is around $14 mill. That is what is used for luxury tax purposes IIRC.

 

[Joshv02]

The AAV of the full contract is around $14 mill. That is what is used for luxury tax purposes IIRC.

This year its $16.5mm; next year it is $500k.  (Even for AAV purposes, according to Speier.) 

 

[dbn]

 

 



I'm a big proponent of Doubie myself and Lackey this past season was the strong #2 starter type needed to shore up the staff when Buch went down, I'm not suggesting they're just tossed out with the trash.
 
But what if the Rockies were willing to let a young, cost controlled Doubront constitute the major piece in return for Carlos Gonzalez?  Or if the Dodgers would only subsidize Kemp to the tune of ~$30M for Peavy but would give $50M over the life of Kemp's deal for Lackey, knowing they're getting a league minimum second year?
 
There are outcomes where the value coming back for Doubie or Lackey is so significantly higher that they'd be the ones you want to displace if the Sox win the Tanaka bid.

 
There is never a reason to not pursue quality young talent at any position for just money, and when about half that money is invisible to the luxury tax there is even less reason to not be in on the bidding.


 
 
 

I'd imagine they were genuinely interested assuming he stays at 2 years and the AAV doesn't get out of hand.  But I don't see them overpaying enough to out-bid the Yankees if that's Beltran preference.  Beltran coming here always depended on Beltran placing another shot at the World Series at the top of his priority list.  But then for all we know that is Beltran's preference and these recent leaks are an attempt by his agent to scare the Sox into upping their offer.
 

 
But what if they weren't?  Of course you trade one of our pitchers - or OFs or prospects or Wally... - if the deal is great and all the dominoes fall like a house of cards, checkmate.  As a "plan A", I don't like trading a SP and going after Tanaka.

 

[Drek717]

 
But what if they weren't?  Of course you trade one of our pitchers - or OFs or prospects or Wally... - if the deal is great and all the dominoes fall like a house of cards, checkmate.  As a "plan A", I don't like trading a SP and going after Tanaka.

So you wouldn't swap Peavy for Tanaka and recoup whatever Peavy could return?  Because I'd make that swap any day of the week.

 

[dbn]

So you wouldn't swap Peavy for Tanaka and recoup whatever Peavy could return?  Because I'd make that swap any day of the week.

 
That's a good way of putting it, actually.  Upgrading Doubront or Lackey (for 2015) would involve an increase in payroll that could otherwise had been used to improve positions for which the need is greater.  Peavy, however, isn't cheap, so he and Tanaka might be close to a wash in terms of payroll.  
 
This is easy for me to say though, because the posting fee isn't my money.

 

[Montana Fan]

Drek, don't you think Peavy has the potential to be a pillow type player as you've been talking about elsewhere? If healthy I think he could get a QO next offseason. Heck, James projects him at 11-7 and 3.31. I might rather have those numbers and a supplemental pick over trading him.

 

[nvalvo]

Drek, don't you think Peavy has the potential to be a pillow type player as you've been talking about elsewhere? If healthy I think he could get a QO next offseason. Heck, James projects him at 11-7 and 3.31. I might rather have those numbers and a supplemental pick over trading him.

 
I think this determination should depend on what we could get back. Chicago just dealt him to us for Avisail Garcia-plus. We were a pitcher short headed to the playoffs, so it made tons of sense at the time. I like Peavy fine. But now, I would rather have a 22 year-old corner outfielder (who just put up a .950-ish OPS in AAA before hitting .304/.327/.447 in the last two months in the majors) than the rights to pay 14 million for a season for the difference between Peavy and, say, De La Rosa/Webster. 
 
I don't know if that kind of return would be out there for Peavy in the offseason, and I certainly wouldn't want to just dump him, but pitching is shaping up to be crazy expensive on the FA market. If we could bring back a young power bat, that would be worth doing. Maybe we match up with a team like the Pirates or the Royals.

 

[Plympton91]

Im not picking specifically on you because many keep bringing up these name, but the love for De la Rosa and Webster around here is wildly out of proportion to the skills they displayed this season. I see no reason to expect either of them to be anywhere but Pawtucket next season, learning how to command a fastball. Until they do that, they are below replacement level stop gaps, at best.