The 2018 NBA Draft

ALiveH

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TheRinger article above does a pretty good job laying out the weaknesses of each player. I was sort of trying to anticipate if Ainge would make an out-of-consensus move, like he did with Fultz, who he'd be more willing to pass on. Bamba's issues seem pretty fixable (like strengthening his legs and core) he seems highly analytical, intelligent and coachable. From what I've seen of the others, Bagley has a very suspect handle, jump shot,some of his fundamentals are rudimentary and at times he lacks some BBall IQ; on the other hand, he seems to have plus-plus defensive potential a la young KG if he puts it together. Ayton's makeup concerns me most because his effort seems to come and go but he possibly has the most upside of the group.

All that being said, we are talking about really young kids and we will learn a lot watching them at the NCAA level to see if they can answer some of these questions. I predict 1-2 of these consensus top-5 will drop into the back half of the lottery, and there will be 1-2 risers in the conversation from the Williams, Sexton, Carter tier. I'd be pretty stoked to get any 2 of the top-5.
 

Kliq

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I remember when I was about to head into my senior year of high school; but I decided to screw that and just head to Duke as a freshmen. I know athletes are given preferential treatment, but come on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I remember when I was about to head into my senior year of high school; but I decided to screw that and just head to Duke as a freshmen. I know athletes are given preferential treatment, but come on.
What preferential treatment would that be? Bagley completely the necessary coursework to graduate HS early. One report was that he needed to complete 6 core courses this summer to be able to graduate early and effectively reclassify.

Homeschoolers also have the opportunity to get through school quickly as do some genius types who are allowed to jump many of their elementary grades. It isn't only athletes.
 

nighthob

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I remember when I was about to head into my senior year of high school; but I decided to screw that and just head to Duke as a freshmen. I know athletes are given preferential treatment, but come on.
I had enough credits to graduate high school before my 17th birthday, it's not that unusual. Given Bagley's age it's even less surprising.
 

DJnVa

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I remember when I was about to head into my senior year of high school; but I decided to screw that and just head to Duke as a freshmen. I know athletes are given preferential treatment, but come on.
This isn't an athlete thing. It's just when other kids do it it's not news. Lots of kids graduate early. They still have to have the required HS credits for their state or jurisdiction.
 

Smokey Joe

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This isn't an athlete thing. It's just when other kids do it it's not news. Lots of kids graduate early. They still have to have the required HS credits for their state or jurisdiction.
Most of them don't decide to do it a month before their senior year is supposed to start and then get accepted by the "Harvard of the South" 8 months after the application deadline.
 

snowmanny

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This isn't an athlete thing. It's just when other kids do it it's not news. Lots of kids graduate early. They still have to have the required HS credits for their state or jurisdiction.
My old roommate Chuck skipped Senior year at Phillips Exeter (because they ran out of maths for him) and literally went to college without a HS diploma. I think they mailed him one after he graduated Summa or became a Professor of Theoretical High Energy Physics or something. But he didn't have to deal with the Duke/NCAA pretenses. I mean requirements.
 

DJnVa

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Most of them don't decide to do it a month before their senior year is supposed to start and then get accepted by the "Harvard of the South" 8 months after the application deadline.
So your issue is missed deadlines and not that he doesn't actually have the required credits to graduated?

Did Duke kick someone out because of this?
 

Smokey Joe

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So your issue is missed deadlines and not that he doesn't actually have the required credits to graduated?

Did Duke kick someone out because of this?
No, your issue was "This isn't that unusual. Lot's of kids do this"

My statement was "This is unusual."

I totally accept that some colleges do this. That is their privledge if they feel it is necessary. But this is unusual even for athletes.
 

Jimbodandy

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No, your issue was "This isn't that unusual. Lot's of kids do this"

My statement was "This is unusual."

I totally accept that some colleges do this. That is their privledge if they feel it is necessary. But this is unusual even for athletes.
My oldest daughter dropped out of HS her junior year, took the GED and started community college that next fall.

It is unusual, but every kid is different.
 

CSteinhardt

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I remember when I was about to head into my senior year of high school; but I decided to screw that and just head to Duke as a freshmen. I know athletes are given preferential treatment, but come on.
That's not so different than what I did, but at Princeton. I did get recruited by Duke, but had no interest in their program.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Most of them don't decide to do it a month before their senior year is supposed to start and then get accepted by the "Harvard of the South" 8 months after the application deadline.
Bagley didn't decide to do it a month before his senior year was set to begin. This rumor has been out there since the previous summer and he spent the past year putting a plan in place to complete the necessary coursework. It wasn't like he woke up in mid-July and made this decision......this is only when it was officially announced, once it became apparent that he was going to be able to complete the coursework.
 

the moops

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Bagley didn't decide to do it a month before his senior year was set to begin. This rumor has been out there since the previous summer and he spent the past year putting a plan in place to complete the necessary coursework. It wasn't like he woke up in mid-July and made this decision......this is only when it was officially announced, once it became apparent that he was going to be able to complete the coursework.
OK fine, he has been planning for months. It is still unusual and not something that happens for 99% of the population. And certainly wouldn't happen for him were he not a fantastic basketball player.
 

HomeRunBaker

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OK fine, he has been planning for months. It is still unusual and not something that happens for 99% of the population. And certainly wouldn't happen for him were he not a fantastic basketball player.
I don't understand why you would say this. If ANY student wanted to accelerate their HS graduation by taking additional summer courses they would have the ability to do so and some do......not only basketball players. Unlike most students, Bagley did have motivation to do so but that does not mean that he was privileged because he plays basketball......only that Molly, your typical A-B student, didn't have that carrot worth tens of millions of dollars in front of her to do so.
 

DJnVa

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It is still unusual and not something that happens for 99% of the population. And certainly wouldn't happen for him were he not a fantastic basketball player.
Are you talking about getting a full scholarship to a top university?

Because that doesn't happen for 99% of the population either and only happened for him because he's a fantastic basketball player.
 

benhogan

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Are you talking about getting a full scholarship to a top university?

Because that doesn't happen for 99% of the population either and only happened for him because he's a fantastic basketball player.
Bagley will put more shekels in Duke's coffers next year than any other undergrad there.
In addition to that, basketball success will create more applications and higher qualified applicants on a whole.
Not picking on Duke, every school does it and they massively benefit from the TV revenue for a dozen scholarships.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Bagley will put more shekels in Duke's coffers next year than any other undergrad there.
In addition to that, basketball success will create more applications and higher qualified applicants on a whole.
Not picking on Duke, every school does it and they massively benefit from the TV revenue for a dozen scholarships.
Pretty sure Duke isn't lacking in applications or highly qualified applicants.

I think the point being made (in part) is that while, yes, many schools do it, Duke has always carried an air of being above that. If they're transitioning themselves into one and done and are transparent about it like a Kentucky, sure. It just acknowledge it and stop claiming to be the Harvard of the South.

Edit: which doesn't detract from the point you're making about how much sports benefit schools financially. But, no, Bagley isn't adding much to the bottom line for the one year he's there. Their tv deals are set. They will sell out every game one way or another. If he adds some run in the tourney, that'll add but that's pennies at that point.
 

benhogan

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Pretty sure Duke isn't lacking in applications or highly qualified applicants.

I think the point being made (in part) is that while, yes, many schools do it, Duke has always carried an air of being above that. If they're transitioning themselves into one and done and are transparent about it like a Kentucky, sure. It just acknowledge it and stop claiming to be the Harvard of the South.

Edit: which doesn't detract from the point you're making about how much sports benefit schools financially. But, no, Bagley isn't adding much to the bottom line for the one year he's there. Their tv deals are set. They will sell out every game one way or another. If he adds some run in the tourney, that'll add but that's pennies at that point.
The transition was done years ago. Only one program has had more "1 and done" players over the last 7 drafts then Duke. Duke has made it perfectly clear to everyone that if you can help them win a championship for 1 season the welcome mat is out.
AND It doesn't diminish Coach K's reputation one iota, he is still a class act and runs the gold standard for programs in NCAA sports.
Heck, there is probably less reputation risk to the University if they keep a kid with a "questionable attitude" for 8-9 months on campus instead of 4 years (ie Grayson Allen has been a bigger headache for Coach K than any of his 1 and done recruits).
Duke is still the "Harvard" of the South, even Harvard isn't above offering preferential admission for a few extra $$$ (see Kushner, Jared).

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-story-behind-jared-kushners-curious-acceptance-into-harvard
 

snowmanny

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Pretty sure Duke isn't lacking in applications or highly qualified applicants.

I think the point being made (in part) is that while, yes, many schools do it, Duke has always carried an air of being above that. If they're transitioning themselves into one and done and are transparent about it like a Kentucky, sure. It just acknowledge it and stop claiming to be the Harvard of the South.

Edit: which doesn't detract from the point you're making about how much sports benefit schools financially. But, no, Bagley isn't adding much to the bottom line for the one year he's there. Their tv deals are set. They will sell out every game one way or another. If he adds some run in the tourney, that'll add but that's pennies at that point.
Any year that Duke is really good, or makes a Final Four, or wins a title it enhances their brand and extends the life of the brand and makes them pots of money. This year they have four of ESPNs top eight freshman committed to Duke and that's a good thing for the hype and visibility and income of their program. It's always fun to pick on Duke but as far as I'm concerned no NCAA Division 1 (edit: athletic scholarship) school is "above" almost anything, although they will all say that of course they are. At Stanford a long time ago John McEnroe was a one and done and Tiger Woods was a two and done. What gets me is the pretense that it's all exactly the same as Fencing at Penn or something; pay the top players $100,000/year and exempt them from classes - who the fuck cares?
 

RedOctober3829

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Well, this is interesting w/r/t the Nets and Lakers picks. Maybe Danny knew about the potential of this coming down the pipe and decided it wasn't worth it to hold onto the Nets pick if in fact this goes through this year.

Woj:
"The National Basketball Association is aggressively pursuing draft lottery reform that could be voted into legislation before the start of the 2017-'18 season, league sources told ESPN.

Commissioner Adam Silver is a strong advocate to de-incentivize tanking by implementing lower odds on the NBA's worst teams to gain the top picks in the draft, league sources said.

The proposed measures would also increase the chances of better teams making a jump up into the draft lottery. The NBA's 14 non-playoff team compromise the league's annual draft lottery system.

If passed, the lottery reform would be phased into use over time, and there's no indication that the 2018 NBA Draft would fall under new legislation, league sources said.

The NBA's Competition Committee, comprised of several general managers and coaches, is expected to vote at a meeting next week on sending a formal recommendation to the Board of Governors for final passage, league sources said.

The Competition Committee is given significant latitude to challenge and amend the league office's proposals, and thus, could recommend none, part, or all of a proposal for the league owners to vote upon at its late September Board of Governors meeting in New York."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20621318/reform-nba-draft-lottery-voted-17-18-season
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Agreed.

And ultimately they can't change the odds or the lottery entrants too much. No one will be happy when a 44-38 #6 seed gets the first pick, or when a legit bad team ends up with the #7 pick.
They aren't letting playoff teams into the lottery. The article calls out that the lottery involves all non-playoff teams.

Also- in regards to the Nets/Lakers picks, from the article: "If passed, the lottery reform would be phased into use over time, and there's no indication that the 2018 NBA draft would fall under new legislation, league sources said." So unless the Lakers pick doesn't convey and they get the '19 SAC pick, this doesn't look like it's going to change much for the C's or Danny's thinking at the time of the Irving trade.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's funny because they changed the lottery in 1993 after Orlando won the 1st pick again because they didn't want the 12th worst team drafting 1st. Way to fix a problem that wasn't broken. Back then, the lottery team with the best record had a 1 in 64 chance of the 1st pick.
 

cheech13

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Flattening the odds on the worst teams won't de-incentivize tanking, it'll change just change the inflection point at which teams decide to either improve or get worse. There will be a push by teams to finish in the bottom five instead of the bottom three, as the difference between finishing first or fifth is minimal under the new system. It also will cause teams that are pseudo-playoff contenders to weigh the option of a late tanks as their odds of snagging a top pick will be greatly improved under the new system.
 

Devizier

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If you want to prevent tanking, penalize teams financially based on their W-L records.

Harsh and would never happen, but that would certainly curb tanking.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I think he meant the #6 seed in terms of lottery teams--6th worst record.
The 6th worst record doesn't go 44-38. 44 wins gets you in the playoffs, whether you're in the East or West. If that's what he meant, he sure picked an odd way of saying it.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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He meant the 6th playoff seed. If they are still keeping all playoff teams out of the lottery that's a good step, but no one wants the team with the 12th worst record to get the #1 pick no matter what the logic behind the lottery is
 

NoXInNixon

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If you want to eliminate tanking, award ping pong ball combinations based on some formula based on number of losses rather than based on absolute position. If the worst team is 20-62 and the second worst team is 22-60, they should have almost the same chance at the #1 because that isn't a significant difference.

It's the huge cliffs that cause tanking, so don't flatten the cliffs, just get rid of them so that the marginal effect of each extra win isn't so big.

Sent from my SM-G930P using SoSH mobile app
 

djbayko

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If you want to eliminate tanking, award ping pong ball combinations based on some formula based on number of losses rather than based on absolute position. If the worst team is 20-62 and the second worst team is 22-60, they should have almost the same chance at the #1 because that isn't a significant difference.

It's the huge cliffs that cause tanking, so don't flatten the cliffs, just get rid of them so that the marginal effect of each extra win isn't so big.

Sent from my SM-G930P using SoSH mobile app
Doesn't the 3rd-from-last place team now have an incentive to tank because if they can get marginally closer to 2nd and 1st, they'd then have an equal shot at the #1 pick according to some formula?

And in turn, don't 2nd and 1st still have an incentive to tank to prevent that from happening? How flat can you really make this thing?

Just leave it alone. Nothing is perfect. Every time they change something, we encounter a new wrinkle that makes it seem less desireable. Every system has wrinkles.
 

ALiveH

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Thanks for posting and apologies if this comes across as being a jerk, but looks pretty similar to other Doncic highlights I've seen (and it's not like Porzingis is known as a great defender or was matching him 1x1 that often).

Anything specific he's doing better that jumps out?
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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He took Porzingis to school a couple times in that highlight. That's against an NBA level talent, who knows how to block shots. That's what jumps out. Oh, and that behind the back pass on the break where he drew both defenders was pretty nice too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks for posting and apologies if this comes across as being a jerk, but looks pretty similar to other Doncic highlights I've seen (and it's not like Porzingis is known as a great defender or was matching him 1x1 that often).

Anything specific he's doing better that jumps out?
His overall body strength improvement reminds me of Zizic's from last winter over the winter prior and his feet look quicker to me as well. This isn't anything that shouldn't be expected going from 17 to 18 but it all bodes well for his continued growth.

It's going to be fun/interesting to see how Simmons and Doncic find their niche as the league evolves since they can't be pure two-way 1's but they have an offensive skillset that brings many of these skills to the table. The other thing is with so much European coverage now we can see these prospects regularly unlike the Milicic years so we know what they are rather than being a total crapshoot. I mean I've seen more Doncic over the past two years than I have of Simmons and I watched more bad LSU basketball two winters ago than any New Englander should!
 

benhogan

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Wow, very impressive. Doncic scored 8 pts in the last 6 minutes in a tight game. Totals: 29 pts/9 rebs/2 assists/1 turnover.

Bertans, Goran Dragic, Porzingis, A. Randolph all on the floor, this is better competition than anything in the NCAA or Summer League '17. AND He still has another year to grow and develop.

http://www.fiba.basketball/eurobasket/2017/1209/Slovenia-Latvia#|tab=boxscore_statistics

It's only one game but you have to like his moxie against a rival.

Go Nets and whoever is playing the Lakers!
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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He wasn't the one that made that pass. He received the behind the back pass and finished.
Crap, you're right. It was such a nice pass I just figured it was him. The finish wasn't anything special, not sure why it made the highlight other than to show him making a basket.
 

DJnVa

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Wait, how the hell is Anthony Randolph playing for the Slovenian national team?
He was born overseas so it's one of those wink-wink things. FIBA allows naturalized citizens--but I think they're limited to like 1 or 2 per team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He was born overseas so it's one of those wink-wink things. FIBA allows naturalized citizens--but I think they're limited to like 1 or 2 per team.
Wait until Kyrie plays for Australia in the next Olympics.......with Aron Baynes!

This isn't as uncommon as it used to be with so many American players overseas when they become parents.
 

Big John

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Doncic is fun to watch. His floor is probably Hedo Turkoglu and his ceiling is......who knows? I'm guessing that he will be better than either Simmons or Ball, because in addition to having vision, Doncic can shoot..
 

DannyDarwinism

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#3 at the latest. I don't think there's any chance he would've gone after Jaylen/Bender/Dunn based on what he's done against legit competition at this age. For 2017 I think he's probably in the conversation for #1 with Fultz.

Edit- or are you talking about him in 2016 and what he had done to that point as a 15 year old?
 

benhogan

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#3 at the latest. I don't think there's any chance he would've gone after Jaylen/Bender/Dunn based on what he's done against legit competition at this age. For 2017 I think he's probably in the conversation for #1 with Fultz.

Edit- or are you talking about him in 2016 and what he had done to that point as a 15 year old?
my bad, I meant this past draft.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think Doncic goes in the 3-5 range if he were in the 2017 draft. Sixers would still have taken Fultz and Lakers would have taken Ball but Tatum, Jackson, Fox would have been interesting. Tatum vs. Doncic is basically a toss up to me and I lean Doncic when compared to Jackson/Fox.