The 2018 NBA Draft

BigSoxFan

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Early action on NBA team season wins at BetOnline. Sorry about the formatting.

Bottom 10 Teams | O/U | Odds
Brooklyn Nets | 21½ games | 53.1% under
Phoenix Suns | 25½ games | 53.1% over
Chicago Bulls | 29½ games | 50.0%
Indiana Pacers | 30½ games | 50.0%
Sacramento Kings | 31½ games | 50.0%
Los Angeles Lakers | 32½ games | 52.0% under
Dallas Mavericks | 34½ games | 50.0%
New York Knicks | 34½ games | 50.0%
Atlanta Hawks | 36½ games | 54.1% over
Orlando Magic | 36½ games | 59.4% under
I would bet my house on the Hawks under 36.5. They might compete for the worst team in the league.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Apparently, Marvin Bagley Jr. might re-classify to put him on track for the 2018 draft. As of now he's generally thought of in the Ayton/Doncic/Porter tier, so this would be great news for the Celtics' picks' values.
 

DJnVa

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This is shaping up to be one of these generational drafts. Very happy we hung onto the LAL pick, now we just need them to do their job and suck just enough to be 2-5.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is shaping up to be one of these generational drafts. Very happy we hung onto the LAL pick, now we just need them to do their job and suck just enough to be 2-5.
Yup. Imagine adding 2 of Porter/Bagley/Ayton/Doncic/Bamba to this team. That would be insane.
 

finnVT

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I'm sure someone has posted this somewhere, but since I was curious maybe others are as well... odds the LAL pick conveys based on their final standings position (from the bottom):

1 75%
2 80.1
3 80.4
4 70.9
5 46.5
6 15.2
7 10.7
8 7.2
9 4.4
10 2.9
11 2.1
12 1.8
13 1.6
14 1.3
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm sure someone has posted this somewhere, but since I was curious maybe others are as well... odds the LAL pick conveys based on their final standings position (from the bottom):

1 75%
2 80.1
3 80.4
4 70.9
5 46.5
6 15.2
7 10.7
8 7.2
9 4.4
10 2.9
11 2.1
12 1.8
13 1.6
14 1.3
Thanks, very helpful. So, to summarize:

1-4: Good chance
5: Coin flip
6+: Not likely
 

Red Averages

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I don't even know how they'd do the envelopes with the various contingencies. If it's Nets-LAL for the first and 2nd pick, and the Celtics logo shows up we wouldn't know if that's good or bad!
 

nighthob

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If Boston comes out of the '18 draft with Bagley and Ayton I'm going to need to call my doctor to deal with the priapism.
 

snowmanny

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I don't even know how they'd do the envelopes with the various contingencies. If it's Nets-LAL for the first and 2nd pick, and the Celtics logo shows up we wouldn't know if that's good or bad!
Didn't something like that happen with Philly this year at #3?
 

Kid T

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I don't even know how they'd do the envelopes with the various contingencies. If it's Nets-LAL for the first and 2nd pick, and the Celtics logo shows up we wouldn't know if that's good or bad!
I think the Celts would execute their right to swap picks with the Nets before the draft lottery, so they would have their own logo for those picks. The Lakers would keep their logo for the lottery since it only conveys if it is pick #2-5, at which point it would turn into a Celtics pick.
 

Kid T

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Didn't something like that happen with Philly this year at #3?
IIRC, the story was that the Celtics ping pong ball came up for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick when they were pulling. Obviously, once the 1st pick was determined, they just ignored all the other C's ping pong balls.
 

NoXInNixon

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I think the Celts would execute their right to swap picks with the Nets before the draft lottery, so they would have their own logo for those picks. The Lakers would keep their logo for the lottery since it only conveys if it is pick #2-5, at which point it would turn into a Celtics pick.
The Lakers don't get to keep the pick no matter what. If it's not 2-5 the Sixers keep it.
 

DGreenwood

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I think the Celts would execute their right to swap picks with the Nets before the draft lottery, so they would have their own logo for those picks. The Lakers would keep their logo for the lottery since it only conveys if it is pick #2-5, at which point it would turn into a Celtics pick.
The Lakers don't get to keep the pick no matter what. If it's not 2-5 the Sixers keep it.
Correct. And the the Celts own the 2018 Nets pick outright, it isn't a swap.

They handle all of the necessary work related to swaps and protections in between the time of the actual lottery and the lottery show. So they show the logo of the team that ends up with the pick (with the original owner of that pick in small print at the bottom of the card). And if it's the result of a swap or trade, they state that when they announce the pick.

Here's the lottery show from this year. Picks 10, 8, 5, 3, and 1 are picks to watch since the team that picked wasn't the original owner of the pick.
 
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djbayko

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If Boston comes out of the '18 draft with Bagley and Ayton I'm going to need to call my doctor to deal with the priapism.
Yes, as of today, those are the two I would love. I haven't bothered bringing up Bagley's name because he wasn't in the picture. He's very smooth.
 

DJnVa

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My name is Luka: https://theringer.com/nba-draft-luka-doncic-real-madrid-f534e7428bf6

Luka Doncic is already a star. Despite just turning 18 in February, the young Slovenian is one of the best players on one of the best teams in Europe. Doncic is so far ahead of his peers it’s unclear who his peers are even supposed to be at this point. Instead of competing in the Under-18 European Championships or the Under-19 World Championships, he was a key player on a Real Madrid team that made it to the Euroleague Final Four in May. The Euroleague is the basketball version of the Champions League, featuring the best teams from the top domestic leagues in Europe, and Doncic was dominant in his time on the floor, with per-40 minute averages of 15.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.7 steals a game on 43.4 percent shooting. He’s the most accomplished European prospect since Ricky Rubio, and he’s a much more complete player. There aren’t many things he can’t do on a basketball court.
“I’ve been tracking him for years,” a statistical analyst for an NBA team told me. “My model has him as the second-best player in the world outside of the NBA. If I was running a team at the top of the draft, I’d be doing everything in my power to get him.”
Who do you think is #1 on that list?
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Ruh-roh. Someone go to University of Missouri and talk some sense into this guy.


Michael Porter may not be one and done. In the video in the link (don't know how to embed it), Porter says that it's not certain he's a one and done and there's a chance he's going to go back for his sophomore year.

I know, I know - that's the politically correct answer but still. . . .
 

slamminsammya

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People gotta chill out about these player decisions a year away. Every year some "cant miss" freshman are hugely disappointing and on the other side some less heralded freshman explode onto the scene. Lets see what happens.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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People gotta chill out about these player decisions a year away. Every year some "cant miss" freshman are hugely disappointing and on the other side some less heralded freshman explode onto the scene. Lets see what happens.
where's the fun in that?

edit: if we can't breathlessly wait on Porter's every word, nay every thought, perhaps then we can salivate over his highlight videos? Here's one from the weekend - Jamaal Crawford's Crawsover Pro-Am going on in Seattle right now.

 
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Kliq

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Every prospect says they don't know if they are a one and done. Then they roll their ankle, get frightened and become top five picks.
 

LondonSox

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porter looks like a score only 4, if he can show he can handle the 3 maybe it's more interesting.

I'm yet to be convinced. But I haven't seen that much yet, way to early
 

BigSoxFan

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Marvin Bagley is the prize if he re-classifies and then Ayton for me. Porter looks like a modern day 4. That shot is quite effortless and he looks like a good, but not great, athlete. Doncic clearly has some skills. Bamba is probably another DeAndre Jordan type so his fit will be team-specific.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
NBAdraft dot net, although not very highly regarded, sure looks pretty with their projected picks for the Nets and Lakers, but with the Celts logo next to them.

Shouldn't be greedy though, two top five picks would be awesome, but one would be pretty great too. Good situations to be in.
 

BigSoxFan

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NBAdraft dot net, although not very highly regarded, sure looks pretty with their projected picks for the Nets and Lakers, but with the Celts logo next to them.

Shouldn't be greedy though, two top five picks would be awesome, but one would be pretty great too. Good situations to be in.
Sure does. If that actually happened, Ainge's trading possibilities would basically be endless, especially if Bagley is able to re-class. I've been so spoiled by these Nets picks that I will be disappointed if we don't end up with someone in the Porter/Ayton/Bamba/Doncic group. Hopefully others emerge that make the ping pong ball process less stressful.
 

ALiveH

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Now that DraftExpress is part of the ESPN conglomerate, what's the next best publicly available source for mock drafts & scouting reports?

Also, Bagley is holding his own against NBA all stars in the Drew League - as a 17 year old. This should pretty much seal the deal on him reclassifying for 2018 - right?
 

tbb345

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I follow college basketball recruiting closely, specifically as it involves Duke, and Bagley is reclassifying. It's not official yet but every move he has made within the last month (using his official visits, filing paperwork) have been moves someone reclassifying would make.

I would be completely shocked if he's not in next years draft.
 

DGreenwood

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But there's a chance that he definitely wants to reclassify but that it won't be approved, correct? I read something about his reclassification not being easy because of how many times he's switched schools and all of those transcripts from different schools adding a layer of complication to the process.

I know nothing about reclassifying, I'm just relaying what I read.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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But there's a chance that he definitely wants to reclassify but that it won't be approved, correct? I read something about his reclassification not being easy because of how many times he's switched schools and all of those transcripts from different schools adding a layer of complication to the process.

I know nothing about reclassifying, I'm just relaying what I read.
This is the source article on Bagley: http://www.zagsblog.com/2017/07/28/ncaa-source-marvin-bagley-reclassification-attempt-pretty-late-process/

The decision is not discretionary - which means if Bagley meets the criteria, he's in - but like most processes apparently there's a few boxes to tick off (not sure exactly what they are) and because Bagley went to multiple schools, there could be problems meeting all the criteria.

BTW, there is a humorous UCLA blog complaining about USC trying to get Bagley to commit by offering Bagley's brother a scholarship - just like UCLA did with the Ball brothers.

Only thing is Bagley's brother is 7 right now. Good thing his college education is taken care of.

https://www.bruinsnation.com/ucla_basketball/2017/7/30/16064950/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-recruitment-of-marvin-bagley-iii
 

Kid T

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BigSoxFan

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Bagley officially re-classifies and chooses Duke. Tankathon just got incredibly real...
 

ALiveH

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The way this draft is shaping up, seems like Doncic and Porter have the highest floor due to their advanced skill level. The 3 bigs have incredible physical tools but huge question marks due to their mental makeup / skill level / basketball IQ. I see some red flags in Ayton & Bagley's mental makeup that Ainge would have to get comfortable with. Bomba seems willing and coachable.
 

ElUno20

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SC didn't dig deep enough, should have offered his entire bloodline a scholarship
 

djbayko

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The way this draft is shaping up, seems like Doncic and Porter have the highest floor due to their advanced skill level. The 3 bigs have incredible physical tools but huge question marks due to their mental makeup / skill level / basketball IQ. I see some red flags in Ayton & Bagley's mental makeup that Ainge would have to get comfortable with. Bomba seems willing and coachable.
I can see this with Ayton and Bamba perhaps, but Bagley?
I can mostly buy into this ranking, but from what I've seen, having Bamba above Ayton is a crime. I'm pretty high on Ayton. But also, unless he develops late, I think Bamba is going to struggle offensively. There's a video of Ayton making him look silly one-on-one, both defensively and offensively. I feel like he's less prepared for the challenge of playing against tougher competition.

One thing is for sure. It's going to be an exciting, anxious-filled year following these guys (and whoever else develops) as we pray to the ping pong gods.
 
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