The 2018 NBA Draft

[HomeRunBaker]

It isn't too early to take a look at the '18 draft class which is loaded at the Top 3 spots depending how you feel about Michael Porter. DeAndre Ayton appears to be a legit stud big prospect while anyone who has yet to see a Real Madrid game really needs to check them out. There hasn't been a better 17-year old prospect come out of Euroleague ball since Toni Kukoc than Luca Doncic who reminds me of a combination of Kukoc and Pete Maravich. He's a legit stud 2-guard with PG skills including length and quickness/athleticism and I'm sold that he could surpass Ayton as my #1 pick he's the real deal.

 

[Kliq]

Porter is the perfect player for today's NBA if he lives up to his potential. I'd love to see any of the Top 4 in green.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Porter is the perfect player for today's NBA if he lives up to his potential. I'd love to see any of the Top 4 in green.

Who is your 4th? At this stage I have a significant dropoff after 3. Have you seen Doncic in extended action yet? He's just special.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who is your 4th? At this stage I have a significant dropoff after 3. Have you seen Doncic in extended action yet? He's just special.

Mohamed Bamba would be the 4th for me.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It isn't too early to take a look at the '18 draft class which is loaded at the Top 3 spots depending how you feel about Michael Porter. DeAndre Ayton appears to be a legit stud big prospect while anyone who has yet to see a Real Madrid game really needs to check them out. There hasn't been a better 17-year old prospect come out of Euroleague ball since Toni Kukoc than Luca Doncic who reminds me of a combination of Kukoc and Pete Maravich. He's a legit stud 2-guard with PG skills including length and quickness/athleticism and I'm sold that he could surpass Ayton as my #1 pick he's the real deal.

Doncic looks like the real deal but there's no chance in hell I take him over an athletic and skilled 7 footer in Ayton, particularly with Fultz and maybe Hayward in the fold. My super early top 4 is:

Ayton
Doncic
Porter
Bamba

No idea on 5-10.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Mohamed Bamba would be the 4th for me.

I didn't include Bamba in my Top-3 as he's more of a raw prospect than a ready to take the league by storm guy as the others could be right away, especially Doncic who has excelled in the 2nd best league in the world as a 17-year old. He's got that Gobert/Jeanne potential but is very very green offensively from what I've seen. He is going to take some time but does have the insane length and coordination of Gobert.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Doncic looks like the real deal but there's no chance in hell I take him over an athletic and skilled 7 footer in Ayton, particularly with Fultz and maybe Hayward in the fold. My super early top 4 is:

Ayton
Doncic
Porter
Bamba

No idea on 5-10.

PF Robert Williams(Texas A&M), F Miles Bridges(Michigan State), PF/C Wendell Carter(Duke), and G Collin Sexton(Alabama) are all at the bottom half of the top 10 in the 2018 mock draft on DX.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Doncic looks like the real deal but there's no chance in hell I take him over an athletic and skilled 7 footer in Ayton, particularly with Fultz and maybe Hayward in the fold. My super early top 4 is:

Ayton
Doncic
Porter
Bamba

No idea on 5-10.

Oh I LOVE Ayton but Doncic is unreal and lethal in the pick-n-roll.....they are 1/2 with a gap to Porter for me.

Side note: I give us a 15% chance at Hayward anyway (my opinion if I had to guess) and the way Ainge spoke this week without once mentioning Fultz by name there is a VERY good chance that neither are Celtics this summer.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

PF Robert Williams(Texas A&M), F Miles Bridges(Michigan State), PF/C Wendell Carter(Duke), and G Collin Sexton(Alabama) are all at the bottom half of the top 10 in the 2018 mock draft on DX.

There is the enormous dropoff I'm referring to with Williams and Bridges. Both could be nice players but neither should ever be discussed about being in the Top-5 especially after having to wait until a much weaker draft class to be talked about above the Top 10-15.

 

[Sprowl]

Breaking out from the 2018 Nets thread...

***

Ayrton-Doncic-Porter-Bamba seem to be the consensus top 4. I'm surprised that HRB wasn't seduced by Bamba's 7’9.5 wingspan and 9’5 standing reach. No alligator arms here...

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Breaking out from the 2018 Nets thread...

***

Ayrton-Doncic-Porter-Bamba seem to be the consensus top 4. I'm surprised that HRB wasn't seduced by Bamba's 7’9.5 wingspan and 9’5 standing reach. No alligator arms here...

Oh I am (just not in the same mention as these top 3 and certainly not near the top 2 of Ayton/Doncic) as I was of Gobert and I am of Jeanne......and I love this type of player, albeit one dimensional, in the mid-first over so called "safe" picks (in other words, guys who will be career backups) but a one-dimensional player even if he reaches his defensive potential is going to have a hard time passing Ayton or Doncic and maybe even Porter.

 

[Kliq]

Who is your 4th? At this stage I have a significant dropoff after 3. Have you seen Doncic in extended action yet? He's just special.

Bamba is in the top four for me; stylistically he fulfills a tough role to find in the NBA. Of course this all depends on how these guys look in college against better competition, but I think right now I have Porter, Ayton, Doncic, Bamba. Porter reminds me of like a bigger Jabari Parker with more defensive upside. I'd love to see how he shoots and rebounds against college competition.

NBA TV sometimes shows Eurobasket games so I've seen some of Doncic. He reminds me I think of a bigger Manu, and is obviously very advanced for his age.

 

[RG33]

Luca Doncic. Bellisimo!

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I didn't include Bamba in my Top-3 as he's more of a raw prospect than a ready to take the league by storm guy as the others could be right away, especially Doncic who has excelled in the 2nd best league in the world as a 17-year old. He's got that Gobert/Jeanne potential but is very very green offensively from what I've seen. He is going to take some time but does have the insane length and coordination of Gobert.

Ayton's package of size, strength, athleticism, fluidity and skill is really incredible for a guy his age. He absolutely has the tools to be the next great big man in the NBA, but I have heard multiple scouts talk about their concerns with his motor. I really love what I've seen from Bamba, and I do think the Gobert comparisons look pretty apt, and he even looks to have decent form on his jumper. FWIW, he swallowed Ayton up the couple of times I've seen them head-to-head. With him and Robert Williams, I expect I'll be watching a lot of Texas next year. That's quite a front court. Haven't seen much of Wendell Carter, but I've hear the young Horford comparison thrown around a bunch. He'll have the luxury of having Trevor Duvall setting him up at Duke. Even though the Celtics (hopefully) wont' be in the market for a PG, I'm excited to check out Collin Sexton at 'Bama. He's a great athlete and apparently insanely competitive with a Paytonesque capacity for on court shit-talking.

Know anything about Mitchell Robinson? Seems solidly behind Ayton/Bamba/Carter and typically Williams among the bigs, but he sounds pretty interesting. Doubt I'll be watching much Western Kentucky though.

Don't know too much about Troy Brown Jr., but man do I love the name.

Top end of 2018 sure looks tantalizing, but to think that adding a guy like Miles Bridges is a pretty middle-the-road expectation for next year's pick is pretty damn exciting too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

NBA TV sometimes shows Eurobasket games so I've seen some of Doncic. He reminds me I think of a bigger Manu, and is obviously very advanced for his age.

Euro games are on ElevenSports all winter for those with Fios. It's a special network for sickos to watch Andres Nocioni, Luke Sikma, Vitor Faverani and Tyrese Rice on cold winter nights.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ayton's package of size, strength, athleticism, fluidity and skill is really incredible for a guy his age. He absolutely has the tools to be the next great big man in the NBA, but I have heard multiple scouts talk about their concerns with his motor. I really love what I've seen from Bamba, and I do think the Gobert comparisons look pretty apt, and he even looks to have decent form on his jumper. FWIW, he swallowed Ayton up the couple of times I've seen them head-to-head. With him and Robert Williams, I expect I'll be watching a lot of Texas next year. That's quite a front court. Haven't seen much of Wendell Carter, but I've hear the young Horford comparison thrown around a bunch. He'll have the luxury of having Trevor Duvall setting him up at Duke. Even though the Celtics (hopefully) wont' be in the market for a PG, I'm excited to check out Collin Sexton at 'Bama. He's a great athlete and apparently insanely competitive with a Paytonesque capacity for on court shit-talking.

Know anything about Mitchell Robinson? Seems solidly behind Ayton/Bamba/Carter and typically Williams among the bigs, but he sounds pretty interesting. Doubt I'll be watching much Western Kentucky though.

Don't know too much about Troy Brown Jr., but man do I love the name.

Top end of 2018 sure looks tantalizing, but to think that adding a guy like Miles Bridges is a pretty middle-the-road expectation for next year's pick is pretty damn exciting too.

Robert Williams is going to Texas A&M, not Texas. Would have been insane to see he and Bamba in the same frontcourt though.

 

[JCizzle]

Euro games are on ElevenSports all winter for those with Fios. It's a special network for sickos to watch Andres Nocioni, Luke Sikma, Vitor Faverani and Tyrese Rice on cold winter nights.

Shout out to Luigi Datome, 2017 EuroLeague champion!

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Robert Williams is going to Texas A&M, not Texas. Would have been insane to see he and Bamba in the same frontcourt though.

Oof. Going back to A&M at that.

 

[Kliq]

Euro games are on ElevenSports all winter for those with Fios. It's a special network for sickos to watch Andres Nocioni, Luke Sikma, Vitor Faverani and Tyrese Rice on cold winter nights.

I was really surprised when I tuned in and saw Rice as the chief ball handler for Barcelona; I hadn't thought about him in years.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I was really surprised when I tuned in and saw Rice as the chief ball handler for Barcelona; I hadn't thought about him in years.

He's had a great career for himself in Europe.

 

[amarshal2]

Knowing what we know today, if the 2016-17-18 draft classes were all in the same draft pool tomorrow, who would go where?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Knowing what we know today, if the 2016-17-18 draft classes were all in the same draft pool tomorrow, who would go where?

Interesting question. I think the 5 top picks would be among these five: Simmons, Fultz, Porter, Doncic, and Ayton.

I posted a few weeks back that some scouts think Fultz would have been taken over Simmons but they are hard to compare. I think both are behind Doncic (extremely advanced for his age and NBA comparisons are off the charts) and Porter (his shooting, size, and athleticism means that he could be the next KD).

So guess would be that Porter / Doncic would be the first two, followed by Simmons / Fultz depending on team, followed by Ayton (who was ranked over Porter for most of the year and has outrageous size and athletic ability) followed by Ingram.

After that, it's hard to decide among the rest. Funny how Dragan Bender suffers in comparison.

The ringer described Michael Porter as having "the skill set of Jayson Tatum and the athleticism of Jonathan Isaac."

 

[Big John]

Watching those Doncic highlights, the thing that impressed me even more than his offensive skills is the way he fights through picks.

 

[amarshal2]

I wasn't super impressed by Doncic because he doesn't really look like he can jump or beat good defensive guards to the hole with speed. And of course, defense. If a guy is going #1 across three drafts he should be more well rounded in terms of upside. Of course, I didn't like James Harden for the similar reasons.

I was wondering if Ayton would go #1 based on the reports but I haven't seen him.

I'm also curious where people think Jaylen, Ball, Fox etc would go. We know more about the guys who have played a year in college and even more about the NBA guys. So it would seem like either this 2018 draft is going to be 2011 (? - the kawhi, Kyrie, butler, IT draft) redux or were overrating 2018. I don't know anything about 2018 really but I definitely think this 2017 draft is real strong in terms of depth of above average regulars with all-star upside. 2016 looked real weak. Even with a season where he showed some shooting ability, I'm not sure Jaylen is definitively ahead of Jackson, for example.

 

[smastroyin]

Remember when Wiggins was the next LeBron?

I understand the exercise, but it's really quite difficult to put guys we know little about against guys we have some decent info about (an NCAA season) and guys we have even more info about (an NBA season, except in the case of Simmons, I guess). That information, no matter how you frame the question, is hard to resist applying, whether positive or negative. And of course, people who are more interested in projection and ceiling will always go for the less experienced guys.

 

[amarshal2]

Remember when Wiggins was the next LeBron?

I understand the exercise, but it's really quite difficult to put guys we know little about against guys we have some decent info about (an NCAA season) and guys we have even more info about (an NBA season, except in the case of Simmons, I guess). That information, no matter how you frame the question, is hard to resist applying, whether positive or negative. And of course, people who are more interested in projection and ceiling will always go for the less experienced guys.

That's basically what I was trying to calibrate for. Strength of top of draft. The way people are talking 2018 is better than 2017 which, if true, means people think it's a once every 5-10 years draft.

So if people don't think 2018 is an outstanding draft they should be putting Fultz above most of those guys. Or maybe they think it's an exceptional top 3 but after that #4 wouldn't come into the top 15-20. 2017 looks really strong and deep, those top 6 guys should probably dominate a list. We always talked about 2016 as a 2 player draft, was that too harsh in hindsight? Brown looks a bit better to me now than a year ago but I still think we're far from knowing if he's a star. Does Brogdon go top 10?

 

[finnVT]

Not relevant to the multi-draft rankings, but as a reference point re: 2018 as a whole... this is how nbadraft.net had the 2017 draft ranked one year ago. Nice for seeing how much movement to expect when discussing Ayton, Doncic, Porter, et al.

http://web.archive.org/web/20160531204659/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/2017mock_draft

1 Josh Jackson
2 Harry Giles
3 Dennis Smith
4 Markelle Fultz
5 Jonathan Isaac
6 DeAaron Fox
7 Frank Ntilikina
8 Jayson Tatum
9 Lonzo Ball
10 Ivan Rabb
11 Isaiah Hartenstein
12 Edmond Sumner
13 Ivica Zubac
14 Rodions Kurucs
15 Ray Smith
16 Jarrett Allen
17 Grayson Allen
18 Frank Jackson
19 Tyler Lydon
20 Terrance Ferguson
21 Bam Adebayo
22 Dwayne Bacon
23 Malik Monk
24 Kobi Simmons
25 Jaron Blossomgame
26 Allonzo Trier
27 Jonathan Jeanne
28 Marques Bolden
29 Rawle Alkins
30 Bennie Boatwright

Other than Monk and int'l guys (Markkanen), not a lot of guys that have moved way up to the top, but guys have definitely dropped way down (Giles, Rabb). And more relevant to the current discussion, the consensus top-of-the-lottery has certainly changed, so while it looks like there may be a consensus top 3 or 4 right now, that's pretty likely to change.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Remember when Wiggins was the next LeBron?

I understand the exercise, but it's really quite difficult to put guys we know little about against guys we have some decent info about (an NCAA season) and guys we have even more info about (an NBA season, except in the case of Simmons, I guess). That information, no matter how you frame the question, is hard to resist applying, whether positive or negative. And of course, people who are more interested in projection and ceiling will always go for the less experienced guys.

I don't ever recall anyone calling Wiggins the next LeBron. Many people liked Jabari more than him. Having said that.....

Wiggins just turned 22. When Kawhi was 22 he put up 12/6/2 with no upward trajectory from his previous season. When Jimmy Butler was 22 he averaged 8 minutes per game and was a DNP-CD in half of the Bulls games. 22 is many years away from a players peak years but even so I never did quite understand all the Wiggins hatred on this board. He's still a kid learning a mans game and doing some really nice things in the process.

 

[ZMart100]

There was plenty of "Wiggins is the next LeBron" talk when he was in HS, here from Business Insider, here from USA Today. That talk subsided once he started actually playing for Kansas.

 

[nighthob]

Clearly Business Insider and USA Today are the publications that the hardcore draftniks turn to for their fix. Given that Wiggins peak weight in high school was 190, no serious person compared him to the Ohio kid that was 50 pounds heavier at the same point.

He was expected to be the best of a good draft class, except that his seven foot tall teammate was more dominant. Unfortunately the seven foot teammate had a bad foot, which always sends up major warning flags.

Up until his injury in high school, Parker was more talked about. And there were more than a few people that had him #1 on their boards. (I was one of them because he reminded me more than a little of Pierce, though the knee injuries have done for him.)

 

[the moops]

No, those publications are not what hard core draftniks turn to. Not sure why that is even relevant. He cited publications as evidence that people talked about Wiggins as Lebron lite. USA Today has one of the widest reaches if any publication and is read by millions of people everyday.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Neither of those publications said that he was the next LeBron. One said that "He's a member of that LeBron James genetic pool. The players whom competitors can't simply overcome with hard work alone." and the other (Dick Vitale) said "He fits into the category of LeBron James as a high school player we've never seen before because of his explosiveness."

Both of which are probably true unless you limit the LBJ genetic pool to one guy.

I'm not sure what the issue is. More than any other sport, NBA superstars manifest themselves early because of the insane amount of athletic ability that it takes. It's not perfect - otherwise we would be remarketing on the greatness of Damon Bailey right now - but it is very rare that true superstars aren't on people's radar screens from high school.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There was plenty of "Wiggins is the next LeBron" talk when he was in HS, here from Business Insider, here from USA Today. That talk subsided once he started actually playing for Kansas.

I'm not referring to independent voices writing for clicks......I meant actual basketball scouts or those who possess the ability to be full-time basketball scouts. Nobody in those circles was preaching Wiggins becoming the next LeBron as he had such a ways to go physically. I feel it is pretty impressive to accomplish what he has prior to age 21 with a body that isn't close to being fully developed. Jabari was the #1 guy in that draft class for the longest time......HE was the guy everyone was raving about until he showed right away in college that his lack of elite athleticism would lower his bar. In HS, Jabari physically dominated everyone.

 

[nighthob]

No, those publications are not what hard core draftniks turn to. Not sure why that is even relevant. He cited publications as evidence that people talked about Wiggins as Lebron lite. USA Today has one of the widest reaches if any publication and is read by millions of people everyday.

The relevance would be the difference between what someone with little/no knowledge of a subject thinks versus those in the know. A couple of non-basketball publications spouted hype not repeated by actual basketball fans.

The so what? here is what's printed in USA Today. Because in terms of sheer ink, prior to the injury, Jabari Parker was more widely discussed. Wiggins certainly got noticed for the physical explosiveness, but the next sentence with him was usually a comment on his rawness as an offensive player. Like Jaylen Brown people noticed the shaky handle and the shaky jumper. So, no, he never really was "the next LeBron". He was expected to be a future all star, and at 22 he has plenty of time to get there.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

if anything, wasn't Wiggens supposed to be the next KD?

 

[smastroyin]

The point remains that if you are a prospect fucker you are going to completely overrate the guys for whom you have little information. If you are a "no such thing as a prospect until they show it" then you are going to overrate guys like Brown who have demonstrated that their bust potential is really low. Asking people to combine three drafts of successive years and rate them in real time when you have a huge disparity of information is going to emphasize those biases.

 

[DJnVa]

Sports Illustrated on Wiggins: https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2013/11/12/andrew-wiggins#

A once-in-generation talent, Andrew Wiggins has Kansas fans in frenzy

This was before a YouTube mixtape tagged him the "Next LeBron" or a media consensus emerged, anointing him the best prospect since Kevin Durant. The correct label is TBD.

But holding Wiggins to a Durant-at-Texas standard is unwise due to the kid's tendency to coast. During a recent workout Self had to yell, "Come on, Wiggs! Let's see if you're the best player on the floor!" because he spent 20 minutes blending in.

 

[nighthob]

The point remains that if you are a prospect fucker you are going to completely overrate the guys for whom you have little information. If you are a "no such thing as a prospect until they show it" then you are going to overrate guys like Brown who have demonstrated that their bust potential is really low. Asking people to combine three drafts of successive years and rate them in real time when you have a huge disparity of information is going to emphasize those biases.

Those are baseball biases creeping in there. In basketball we try to look at the skills a prospective player has command of, his physicals, and his ability to utilize it all on a court. That last is why someone like Cam Oliver is going to get drafted in the 35-50 range despite being 6'8" 240 with a 7'1" wingspan, 8'10" standing reach, and really athletic.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So Keith Smith asked a bunch of NBA execs/scouting people where Donic and Porter slot into this draft....
2/3 behind Fultz but ahead of everyone else. The chance to get the best of the 3 and possibly 1 of the other 2 (or Ayton) would be a pretty amazing return on the BRK trade.

 

[BigSoxFan]

So Keith Smith asked a bunch of NBA execs/scouting people where Donic and Porter slot into this draft....
2/3 behind Fultz but ahead of everyone else. The chance to get the best of the 3 and possibly 1 of the other 2 (or Ayton) would be a pretty amazing return on the BRK trade.

Jaylen Brown
Markelle Fultz
Ayton/Doncic/Porter

For

3 years of old KG/Pierce

Seems fair.

 

[the moops]

Jaylen Brown
Markelle Fultz
Ayton/Doncic/Porter

For

3 years of old KG/Pierce

Seems fair.

Poor James Young

 

[BigSoxFan]

Poor James Young

Intentional omission

 

[sox311]

Poor James Young

That draft was hyped to be the deepest ever. There is some talent there, for sure, but there were to be up to ten perennial all stars in that draft.

After 17, where Young went, there are only Hood, Gary Harris, and Capella from the first round who have been significantly better than Young.

Jokic of course was in the 2nd by the amazing Denver international scouting department. Great draft that year by them, wow.

 

[cheech13]

It's amazing how quickly Denver's front office went from complete laughingstock after Ujiri left due to the Faried contract mishap/CBA mishaps to lauded for their draft success and cap management.

 

[Big John]

Doncic is the second coming of Drazen Petrovic. Maybe Ayton and Porter will be better, but it's a treat to watch Doncic play. Critics will say "he's not athletic enough" but they said that about Petrovic (and Larry Bird too).

 

[Kid T]

I think that's a poor comp. From what I've read, Doncic is a perimeter player with great court vision whereas Petrovic was a much stronger outside shooter and not much of a complementary game.

 

[djbayko]

From what I've seen in limited videos on YouTube - and with the obvious caveat that we get to see one more season from these guys - give me Ayton. He's 7 feet and looks like he has the raw makings of an Olajuwon-like skillset plus a perimeter game.

 

[Big John]

I think that's a poor comp. From what I've read, Doncic is a perimeter player with great court vision whereas Petrovic was a much stronger outside shooter and not much of a complementary game.

If you don't think Petrovic had a "complemetary" game I would with all due respect suggest that you stop reading a watch some film.

 

[Kid T]

If you don't think Petrovic had a "complemetary" game I would with all due respect suggest that you stop reading a watch some film.

I watched him live - he was a SG with a deadly outside shot. He wasn't an incredible defender, rebounder, or distributor.

But here is a scouting report: http://www.nba.com/history/players/petrovic_bio.html

He began to gain league-wide recognition as one of the NBA's best outside shooters, particularly from three-point range. He hit on 123 of 277 three-point attempts that season, ranking second in the NBA with a .444 percentage. Petrovic also led the Nets in field-goal shooting (.508) and free-throw shooting (.808)

As for Doncic: http://fansided.com/2016/07/26/luka-doncic-scouting-report-real-madrid/

Off the catch, Doncic is an average open-shot gunner as of now. He’s sort of a set shooter, getting very little elevation off the ground, but his release is quicker in comparison to what it looked like in junior ranks and the mechanics look clean – nailing 36.8 percent of his 68 three-point attempts last season. Doncic hasn’t shown much in terms of shooting coming off screens yet, though.

Your posts lack substance and thought - try doing some research and stop with the lazy comparisons.

 

[Big John]

I watched him live - he was a SG with a deadly outside shot. He wasn't an incredible defender, rebounder, or distributor.

But here is a scouting report: http://www.nba.com/history/players/petrovic_bio.html



As for Doncic: http://fansided.com/2016/07/26/luka-doncic-scouting-report-real-madrid/




Your posts lack substance and thought - try doing some research and stop with the lazy comparisons.

The scouting report on Doncic to which you refer is dated. Watch some film of him this year with Real Madrid. As for Petrovic, I watched him live too. He could do it all.