The 2015 49ers: Busted Kap.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
All of York's moves have to be viewed in light of the new stadium situation.  He alienated a huge chunk of the fan base with the new stadium by a) moving the team 45 miles south of SF, and especially b) requiring existing season ticket holders to buy PSLs to keep their tickets.  My father had been a season ticket holder at the Stick since the late 80s and was furious that after having been a loyal customer for 25 years (including during the 1999-2010 era when they had only 2 winning seasons in 12 years), they now wanted him to pay several thousand dollars per seat just for the right to keep keep buying tickets at double the previous price.  There is a strong perception that the only reason York hired Harbaugh in the first place was that he needed a good coach to improve the on-field product during the new stadium marketing campaign.  Harbaugh was expensive, and Harbaugh also demanded that his staff be paid top dollar -- under Harbaugh, the 49ers had the highest paid coordinators in the league.  Reportedly, Harbaugh was even willing to take less money for himself to ensure his staff was well paid.  Now, the 49ers probably have the lowest paid coaching staff in the league.  There's a feeling that once the PSLs and suites at the new stadium had been sold (all on long-term multi-year commitments), York got cheap and no longer wanted to pay the going rate for a top-flight staff.

 
Yikes, that's a pretty ugly narrative.
 
It will be interesting to see what they do with Tomsula, who seems to check all the right boxes for York - ie, loyal, cheap - but all the wrong boxes in terms of actual competence.  I don't think the team is in that bad shape from a talent/roster perspective.  They have some good players, few truly bad contracts, and will be freed from all the dead money next year.  Give them a good coach and a good offseason in terms of savvy FA signings and a solid draft and they could be a frisky, potential playoff team again next year, if not a true Super Bowl contender.  But that would require firing Tomsula and  admitting that some significant mistakes were made after the Harbaugh departure. 

 

[coremiller]

 
Yikes, that's a pretty ugly narrative.
 
It will be interesting to see what they do with Tomsula, who seems to check all the right boxes for York - ie, loyal, cheap - but all the wrong boxes in terms of actual competence.  I don't think the team is in that bad shape from a talent/roster perspective.  They have some good players, few truly bad contracts, and will be freed from all the dead money next year.  Give them a good coach and a good offseason in terms of savvy FA signings and a solid draft and they could be a frisky, potential playoff team again next year, if not a true Super Bowl contender.  But that would require firing Tomsula and  admitting that some significant mistakes were made after the Harbaugh departure. 

 
It's hard to tell how much talent there is because the coaching is so bad. Nobody is being put in a position to succeed.  They really are incredibly incompetent.  And it's not just an offensive thing.  Mangini's defense has been an utter disaster, they were 31st in defensive DVOA before last night.
 
The coaching staff is also bizarrely over-conservative.  They kicked a FG on 4th and 2 from the 17, then punted three times in a row the fourth quarter, including on 4th and 4 and 4th and 3, despite being down 17 points.  They went 1-11 on 3rd downs; on their 11 3rd down plays, they called two runs and five screens (all of these failed), and only threw past the 3rd down marker 4 times.  They play way too much soft zone coverage on defense.
 
Also, for the first time in his career, Kaepernick had zero rushing attempts.  

 

[dcmissle]

Says some good things about Harbaugh I didn't know.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Yikes, that's a pretty ugly narrative.
 
It will be interesting to see what they do with Tomsula, who seems to check all the right boxes for York - ie, loyal, cheap - but all the wrong boxes in terms of actual competence.  I don't think the team is in that bad shape from a talent/roster perspective.  They have some good players, few truly bad contracts, and will be freed from all the dead money next year.  Give them a good coach and a good offseason in terms of savvy FA signings and a solid draft and they could be a frisky, potential playoff team again next year, if not a true Super Bowl contender.  But that would require firing Tomsula and  admitting that some significant mistakes were made after the Harbaugh departure. 

I'm not going to disagree with your assessment of Tomsula, but I disagree on their talent and outlook. They are below-average across the board on offense: the Kaepernick of 2012/3 is nowhere to be seen, the offensive line has gone from the best unit in the league to a bottom 5/10 group, Vernon Davis is MIA, the WRs are washed-up, the RBs are OK but Hyde has some bad habits that the shoddy blocking is only going to reinforce. They are last in points and yards. The front seven has been crippled by the loss of Willis / Borland / Smith / Smith, the CBs are weak (the safeties are OK), and they're 30th in Y/A and NY/A. The 2012 draft was all-time bad as everyone is gone from it. The 2013 draft isn't much better - Reid is pretty good but Carradine and Lemonier have combined for 5 sacks in 2.5 seasons and McDonald and Patton have less than 400 receiving yards combined. Lattimore never suited up. Maybe the future cap outlook is good, but they need to start getting some good players, because they stink and because many of their key players (Boldin, Bethea, Brooks, Davis, Staley, Bush) are on the wrong side of 30.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'm not going to disagree with your assessment of Tomsula, but I disagree on their talent and outlook. They are below-average across the board on offense: the Kaepernick of 2012/3 is nowhere to be seen, the offensive line has gone from the best unit in the league to a bottom 5/10 group, Vernon Davis is MIA, the WRs are washed-up, the RBs are OK but Hyde has some bad habits that the shoddy blocking is only going to reinforce. They are last in points and yards. The front seven has been crippled by the loss of Willis / Borland / Smith / Smith, the CBs are weak (the safeties are OK), and they're 30th in Y/A and NY/A. The 2012 draft was all-time bad as everyone is gone from it. The 2013 draft isn't much better - Reid is pretty good but Carradine and Lemonier have combined for 5 sacks in 2.5 seasons and McDonald and Patton have less than 400 receiving yards combined. Lattimore never suited up. Maybe the future cap outlook is good, but they need to start getting some good players, because they stink and because many of their key players (Boldin, Bethea, Brooks, Davis, Staley, Bush) are on the wrong side of 30.

 

 
It's hard to tell how much talent there is because the coaching is so bad. Nobody is being put in a position to succeed.  They really are incredibly incompetent.  And it's not just an offensive thing.  Mangini's defense has been an utter disaster, they were 31st in defensive DVOA before last night.

 
I don't disagree that the 49ers are currently awful or that they have less talent than most NFL teams.  My larger point was that the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of roster talent and, more importantly, the cap situation is very, very good.   In some ways, that might be a better situation than a team like Miami that has a more talented roster but a bunch of really bad contracts.  But you can't take advantage of that situation unless you have good people in place in terms of personnel and coaching.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
The coaching staff is also bizarrely over-conservative.  They kicked a FG on 4th and 2 from the 17, then punted three times in a row the fourth quarter, including on 4th and 4 and 4th and 3, despite being down 17 points.  They went 1-11 on 3rd downs; on their 11 3rd down plays, they called two runs and five screens (all of these failed), and only threw past the 3rd down marker 4 times.  They play way too much soft zone coverage on defense.
 
Also, for the first time in his career, Kaepernick had zero rushing attempts.  

I listened to Tomsula's presser today, and I think I can add to these two points. They are being over-conservative and a good part of it is over-reacting to failures earlier this year. Kap was asked about some passes being thrown into the ground and others high over receivers heads or out of bounds. They were looking for whether these were due to his swollen thumb. He said no, they were throwaways, he just didn't want to risk interceptions (remember the 2 pick sixes early in the AZ game.). He said that rather meekly. As for no running, I'm pretty sure coaching is directing this. Even Joe Montana has come out and said he should run more. So, I think Kap is being a good soldier, doing what he's told, and throwing too many balls away and never taking off running any more, which is probably the 49ers best weapon. Tomsula and company are managing not to lose, instead of trying to win. Results are predictable.

 

[coremiller]

I listened to Tomsula's presser today, and I think I can add to these two points. They are being over-conservative and a good part of it is over-reacting to failures earlier this year. Kap was asked about some passes being thrown into the ground and others high over receivers heads or out of bounds. They were looking for whether these were due to his swollen thumb. He said no, they were throwaways, he just didn't want to risk interceptions (remember the 2 pick sixes early in the AZ game.). He said that rather meekly. As for no running, I'm pretty sure coaching is directing this. Even Joe Montana has come out and said he should run more. So, I think Kap is being a good soldier, doing what he's told, and throwing too many balls away and never taking off running any more, which is probably the 49ers best weapon. Tomsula and company are managing not to lose, instead of trying to win. Results are predictable.

 
Yeah, it's a classic case of a coach who's in over his head and knows this is the only shot he'll ever get as an NFL head coach, so he's just trying not to screw it up too badly and embarrass himself, which is making him overly risk-averse, which is making the whole thing a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Marciano490]

Kaep gets cut after the season, right? He's never seeing that other $100 mil.

 

[JCizzle]

Kaep gets cut after the season, right? He's never seeing that other $100 mil.

I think it depends on the coaching / GM situation. If they end up firing Tomsula and hiring an offensive guy in the Chip Kelly mold, they might keep him for another year.

 

[dcmissle]

Kaep gets cut after the season, right? He's never seeing that other $100 mil.

And off to Philadephia he goes.

 

[wibi]

I wonder how much influence Harbaugh had in Kaep signing that contract because it sure didnt make sense at the time and its making even less sense now

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't disagree that the 49ers are currently awful or that they have less talent than most NFL teams.  My larger point was that the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of roster talent and, more importantly, the cap situation is very, very good.   In some ways, that might be a better situation than a team like Miami that has a more talented roster but a bunch of really bad contracts.  But you can't take advantage of that situation unless you have good people in place in terms of personnel and coaching.

Other than the management in place - and I agree, we should be very, very skeptical - the lack of talent presents a problem with respect to the cap space. There aren't a lot of obvious extension candidates on the roster, and we know spending money in the free agent market is the least efficient way to spend it. The 2012 draft class should be coming up for extensions right now, but those players are all long gone. Who are they going to spend money on? I could easily see them being another Jacksonville and overpaying for mid-tier free agents. I'd rather have too many good players and some cap issues making them all fit than have a lot of cap space and few good players.

 

[soxhop411]

Confused

 

[Al Zarilla]

Wow

@49ers: The #49ers have promoted RB Kendall Gaskins to the active roster, waive RB Jarryd Hayne.

http://49rs.co/m8wgi8 http://twitter.com/49ers/status/660546800382775297/photo/1

Why is that a Wow?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Maybe confused him with Carlos Hyde?

 

[soxhop411]

Maybe confused him with Carlos Hyde?

No was kind of shocked they cut him. Wasn't SEA going after him this offseason?

 

[Byrdbrain]

OK I didn't realize he was the Aussie in the title, that was my bad. He made a big splash in preseason but hasn't done anything in the regular season.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

OK I didn't realize he was the Aussie in the title, that was my bad. He made a big splash in preseason but hasn't done anything in the regular season.

This statement applies to most of the 49ers roster, especially if you remove the "splash in preseason" part.

 

[nattysez]

I think they're going to bench Kaepernick.  He's lost.  Check this out.
 
BTW, Reggie Bush apparently tore his ACL and Mike Davis broke his hand, so they must REALLY not like Jarryd Hayne if they don't bring him back.

 

[Stitch01]

Probably would be easier to bench him if the backup wasn't arguably the worst player in the league.

 

[nattysez]

Probably would be easier to bench him if the backup wasn't arguably the worst player in the league.

 
FWIW, Tomsula refused to back Kaep as the starting QB at his presser just now.  What a mess.

 

[coremiller]

I don't see any point in benching Kaepernick.  We know Gabbert sucks, he's never been good.  Kaepernick has at least been good in the past.
 
It looks like after the pick-sixes against Arizona that the coaches completely lost trust in Kaep and now refuse to take the reins off.  The game plans since then have been ultra-conservative and risk-averse, culminating in the three straight runs into the middle of the line against 10-man boxes that ended in the safety.
 
I don't see any point in being so conservative.  This team isn't going anywhere anyway, they might as well take the shackles off and see what Kaepernick can do.  Maybe he will bomb badly, and then they can move on from him at the end of the year, but the offense can hardly be worse than it is now, when they refuse to call any pass plays that don't involve rollouts the defense can see coming from a mile away.  If they're going to suck, they might as well take some chances and go down fighting rather than just rolling over.

 

[Stitch01]

Is Kaepernick's contract guaranteed for injury?  Might be close to the point to RGIII him if it is.
 
Otherwise I agree, they basically haven't been trying to win for the last month.

 

[SydneySox]

OK I didn't realize he was the Aussie in the title, that was my bad. He made a big splash in preseason but hasn't done anything in the regular season.

 
 
Yes he has - dropped about 30 per cent of his punt returns.

 

[soxhop411]

ANNNNNND benched


Bay Area Sports Guy ‏@BASportsGuy 19m19 minutes ago
Source: Colin Kaepernick benched, Blaine Gabbert to start against Falcons (via @Kyle_McLorgBASG) http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/49ers-bench-colin-kaepernick-blaine-gabbert/

 

[soxfan121]

When Blaine Gabbert is the answer, unask the question.

 

[Al Zarilla]

49ers sign running back Pierre Thomas.
 
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14043675/free-agent-rb-pierre-thomas-signs-san-francisco-49ers
 
At yesterday's Tomsula presser, he said every player position was being evaluated, in response to a question about Kaepernick. Sure enough, Kap benched. On CSNBA this morning, they think Kap is gone, but who will be interested? Matt Maiocco mentioned the Jets. Have the Jets called the 49ers, or vice versa? Back to Tomsula, somebody should have asked if he's looking over his shoulder too. And Baalke, and Marathe, but Marathe may be Jed's BFF, according to a 49er message board. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Is Kaepernick's contract guaranteed for injury?  Might be close to the point to RGIII him if it is.
 
Otherwise I agree, they basically haven't been trying to win for the last month.

 
CK has $61M that is injury guaranteed.  The other guarantees don't vest until April 1 of next year.
 
This is not a football move, it's a math problem.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/san-francisco-49ers/post/_/id/15320/how-much-will-it-cost-the-49ers-cut-to-colin-kaepernick-at-seasons-end

 

[coremiller]

SF beat Atlanta 17-16 yesterday to get to 3-6, helped by a truly horrendous decision by Atlanta to keep a field goal down 17-13 on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line with 3 minutes left. Ultimately this game came down to red zone efficiency: SF scored TDs on both of their red zone trips, while ATL was only 1/3.

Gabbert was ok but not especially good -- 15/25, 185 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs (one of which was not his fault), 0 sacks. The 0 sacks is the most notable, as avoiding sacks is one of Kaepernick's biggest weaknesses. But ultimately this performance is not any better, and a probably a little worse, than Kaepernick's production against the weaker defenses they've played (Minn, NYG, Bal); ATL is ranked 19th in defensive DVOA. Kap's problem has been that he's been completely terrible against good defenses. SF has the bye, than Seattle and Arizona next, so if Gabbert keeps his job (as I suspect he will), we'll find out quickly whether he can do better against good defenses.

While the offense has basically sucked everywhere, the SF defense has had a huge home/road split this year. They are allowing 18.4 ppg at home and 36.75 on the road. Mostly it's the pass defense: in the five home games, they are allowing an opponent ANY/A of 5.4; it's 10.2 in the four road games.

Tank Carradine was benched yesterday. He's been a big disappointment this season, not providing much pass rush and doing very poorly against the run (he got blown way out of his gap on Gurley long TD run last week). That's another of Baalke's redshirts that hasn't worked out.

 

[Tony C]

Watched a good chunk of this game and I will say it was pretty damning in re Kap. Not that the coaching staff doesn't deserve a good bit of blame for his decline, but the idea that they're to blame for his sacks was blown out of the water by Gabbert not taking any, and Gabbert also ran 8 times, including for that big 1st down. Be fascinating to see Kap with a different coach and see if he can re-emerge.

The larger lesson is that the Falcons really lucked into that 5-0 start.

 

[coremiller]

Watched a good chunk of this game and I will say it was pretty damning in re Kap. Not that the coaching staff doesn't deserve a good bit of blame for his decline, but the idea that they're to blame for his sacks was blown out of the water by Gabbert not taking any, and Gabbert also ran 8 times, including for that big 1st down. Be fascinating to see Kap with a different coach and see if he can re-emerge.

The larger lesson is that the Falcons really lucked into that 5-0 start.

Part of it is that Atlanta has a very poor pass rush -- before yesterday, they were 30th in Adjusted Sack Rate.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Kaepernick on IR. Season's over

 

[soxhop411]

Kaepernick on IR. Season's over

and his 49er career?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

and his 49er career?

Being reported he has a torm labrum in non-throwing shoulder. That creates real risk his injury protection will kick in and 49ers will be stuck with him for another year.

Can also imagine a dispute about that one if he isn't healed by spring.

This year for him was terrible for team---and yet, may actually be even worse than imagined if he infects next year's planning as well

 

[Marciano490]

I'll let the docs chime in, but isn't "torn" labrum in a shoulder an injury almost every lifter or athlete has? I technically tore mine 12 years ago but never for surgery and just rehabbed while not really modifying my activity in the meantime.

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

I'll let the docs chime in, but isn't "torn" labrum in a shoulder an injury almost every lifter or athlete has? I technically tore mine 12 years ago but never for surgery and just rehabbed while not really modifying my activity in the meantime.

If you get a shoulder MRI of any throwing/lifting/contact athlete, the vast majority will have some sort of radiographic abnormality, but almost all of these will be clinically irrelevant or manageable without surgery. If he has an anterior/inferior labral tear that is causing instability, that's a reason to shut him down and have surgery sooner rather than later

 

[Marciano490]

My phone autocorrects to labial. Props on your professionalism.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

You trying to say you literally throw like a.....ah never mind.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Assuming this doesn't trigger the guarantees in the contract, this is a clean break for both. It gets him out of the room and probably helps Gabbert's confidence. It also ensures they won't have to put him back in and watch him get hurt.

For Kaep, it lets him start training and I wouldn't be surprised if they told his agent he can start reaching out for a trade / renegotiation with another team. Best case for Baalke is if a Denver/Houston/Philly can negotiate a contract with Kaep that motivates them to send a low round pick for him so they don't have to bid for him on the open market or deal with the waiver process.

 

[nattysez]

However, the injury dates to a loss to the Packers on Oct. 4 and Kaepernick reported shoulder soreness after that game, according to the source. He was told the condition would improve in several weeks.

According to a team spokesman, Kaepernick initially said he was experiencing shoulder soreness when he returned to the facility Monday after the bye week. Kaepernick underwent an MRI exam at Stanford on Monday. On Tuesday, he was told by a team trainer he had a small labrum tear that would heal on its own, the source said.

Kaepernick sought a second opinion from Dr. Peter Millet of the Steadman Clinic in Vail. Steadman determined Kaepernick had a significant labrum tear that likely required surgery.

On Friday afternoon, Kaepernick said he was still having discomfort after practice, and he met with the team’s medical staff to discuss his options, the team spokesman said. According to the source, the 49ers agreed with Steadman’s diagnosis of a complete labrum tear.

http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/Kaepernick-on-IR-season-and-possible-SF-career-6648648.php

So he had a complete labrum tear, got demoted, and was still trying to tough it out through practice? Pretty tough guy. I'm very curious to see how this plays out.

 

[dcmissle]

Philly seems natural landing spot. It would be just like Elway to grab him.

 

[johnmd20]

I'll let the docs chime in, but isn't "torn" labrum in a shoulder an injury almost every lifter or athlete has? I technically tore mine 12 years ago but never for surgery and just rehabbed while not really modifying my activity in the meantime.

You probably didn't have a tear. I had a labrum tear in my shoulder. It was not something I could work out through. My shoulder was on fire all day long, with pain that was impossible to exercise with. Surgery was the only way to fix it.

 

[Marciano490]

You probably didn't have a tear. I had a labrum tear in my shoulder. It was not something I could work out through. My shoulder was on fire all day long, with pain that was impossible to exercise with. Surgery was the only way to fix it.

There are different degrees of tears, which was my point. That and im mas macho than you.

 

[johnmd20]

There are different degrees of tears, which was my point. That and im mas macho than you.

You're not. I mean, you are. But you're not. If you had a SLAP tear, you wouldn't have been working out like normal.

 

[wibi]

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Calling the NFLPA, come in, NFLPA...

 

[soxfan121]

To do what? He signed the contract and injury happens.

Is Kaepernick saying he's not injured? I haven't seen that, but that's the only reason to call for the NFLPA.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

There was some commentary here that the sort of injury being discussed could go either way, and wondering if it was truly necessary fro him to be IR'd, although I was sort of joking.

 

[soxfan121]

nattysez posted a link (& quoted from) it that seems pretty definitive, and the second opinion was sought by Kaepernick.

 

[Byrdbrain]

In one of the fake ad-libbed discussions while going to or from a commercial on Football Night, Peter King was saying not to be surprised if Kaep ended up on the Jets(OK I could see that) or the Raiders(???).
Other than as a backup why would the Raiders have any interest in him? From Kaeps perspective why would he be interested in somewhere where he has no shot of even competing for a spot?