Some thoughts on last night's game:
- My feeling that this team was nowhere near as bad as media narrative was making it out to be was largely confirmed. They still have plenty of weaknesses, but I'm pretty sure they're not going to go 4-12. My preseason expectation was 7-9/8-8, with a shot at a playoff spot if things break right. I still feel that way. This was the sort of game -- home game against a weaker team -- they need to win to have a successful season, and it's a good sign that they comfortably took care of business.
- The defense has the potential to be very good. While lacking starpower except for Bowman (if he returns to his 2013 form), the front 7 is solid at every spot, the DL has depth, and the safeties are very good. They dominated a poor Vikes OL last night. Minnesota didn't test their CB weakness much, but we'll find out more about the secondary next week against Pittsburgh and Antonio Brown.
- We knew Staley and Boone were going to be fine, but the right side of the line was a big question mark. Staley was dominant, but the whole group were solid last night, against a below-average Vikings front. SF was 30th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year, but Kaepernick was sacked only once on ~30 dropbacks last night, and the line opened consistent holes all night.
- Kaepernick was ok but no better. He had some accuracy issues, but he avoided mistakes and negative plays -- no turnovers, only one sack, no delay of game or intentional grounding penalties, etc. -- and he made a few nice throws to keep the chains moving. His scrambling was also a threat. This was very much a dink and dunk performance, they got almost nothing going downfield but had success with short passes, especially on roll-outs and play-action. An Alex Smith sort of game. They can win a bunch of games with that level of performance when they run the ball like they did and play good D, but they will need more from Kaep against better teams where they don't dominate the lines on both sides.
- Carlos Hyde looks like a star. His burst through the hole is really impressive and he's hard to bring down.
- Hayne ... yikes. Less said the better here.
- They got lucky with the missed PI call on Bethea in the end zone.
Some notes scheme-wise:
- After being a primarily power run team under Harbaugh, they are now almost exclusively a zone run team. That fits Hyde well.
- Lots of 3-TE personnel groups. They clearly saw something on film that suggested they could get an edge that way, and it allows them to do fun things with shifts and formations. All 3 TEs can both block and run routes, which gives them versatility to get good matchups.
- Lots of getting Kaep moving outside the pocket with bootlegs and roll-outs, a tactic Harbaugh/Roman never used enough. They spread the ball around more than under Harbaugh/Roman, too: 8 players had receptions, including 3 TEs and 2 RBs.
- Mangini blitzes way more than Fangio did. It worked well last night with five sacks and consistent pressure against a bad Minn line.
A nice win, but all it proves to me is that they won't be terrible. Remember, last year in Week 1 the Niners waxed Dallas on the road with Kaep flinging the ball all over the place. That game turned out to have zero predictive value for the rest of the season. Pitt on the road next week should be a better test.
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