The 2014 Offseason Thread

[dcmissle]

Why do people keep saying this? Not to start another "can BB draft?" argument but he has grabbed Dennard, Ryan, and McCourty as 3 of the last 4 CBs he's drafted.
 
Here's all the CBs he's drafted and their round:
Antwan Harris (6th) (contributed a bit)
Brock Williams (3rd) (injury problems)
Leonard Myers (6th) (ST for one year)
Asante Samuel (4th)
Ellis Hobbs (3rd)
Mike Richardson (6th) (JAG)
Terrence Wheatley (2nd) (bust)
Jonathan Wilhite (4th) (JAG)
Darius Butler (2nd) (semi-bust)
Devin McCourty (1st) (big hit, moved to S)
Ras-I Dowling (2nd) (injuries)
Dennard (7th)
Ryan (3rd)
 
Also: Arrington (UDFA) and there may be other UDFAs I'm forgetting
 
13 total, so hardly a big enough sample to shake out the noise (as would be with any position). But that said there are 2 pro bowl level players here, 3 solid starters (if you count Ryan, who looks like he can be that) and a couple more guys who contributed off the bench or on special teams. The only busts were Wheatley, Butler or guys who got injured (which was obviously a risk they knew about with Dowling).
 
I don't see the evidence he can't draft CBs, even if you COULD draw that conclusion from such a small sample size.

Wheatley. Wilhite, Butler and Dowling -- that's a handful and relatively recent. I didn't say he can't draft. I said the record at the position is mixed and this might be a generous characterization.

And of all those people, who made a big impact as a rookie, which is increasingly the focus of many here, the near term?

Edit -- and if Ryan is such a game changer, why isn't the consensus here to just hand him coverage responsibilities. The AFC Championship game is not that far in the rear view mirror that we don't remember Manning carved them up the instant Talib went down .

This is not an argument for overpaying Talib, paying a haul for Revis, or anything else. It's just a recognition of concern, and the fact we are not likely to get plug-and-play in May's draft.

 

[soxfan121]

Edit -- and if Ryan is such a game changer, why isn't the consensus here to just hand him coverage responsibilities. The AFC Championship game is not that far in the rear view mirror that we don't remember Manning carved them up the instant Talib went down .

This is not an argument for overpaying Talib, paying a haul for Revis, or anything else. It's just a recognition of concern, and the fact we are not likely to get plug-and-play in May's draft.

 
Ryan played well and may well be growing into a keeper. I think no one is advocating standing pat with the personnel group because like pitching, you can never have enough quality players in the back 4. The Pats could have an in-his-prime Deion Sanders, Ty Law, Rodney Harrison and Ronnie Lott and I'd still want them to find some depth because injuries happen. 
 
It's a bit of an exaggeration to say "the instant"; they were being carved before he went down. And that he went down, like he's always going down, is why I keep harping on it. 
 
And you are absolutely right - chances are, they aren't getting a plug-and-play anything in the draft. Rookies go up, rookies go down. It's why I've left the "steady on course" group and am now advocating a big splash and some spending on veteran help. Rookies drafted this year might help Brady win another SB. Rookies drafted next year have even less chance of helping Brady (i.e. this iteration of the Patriots) of winning a SB. And anyone drafted in his final season(s), anyone born after he joined the Patriots, has a miniscule chance of helping Brady win another SB. 

 

[dcmissle]

I think your purposed solution makes sense, coupled with enhancing pass rush. It's probably the best we can do. And with respect to Talib, I'm fully in accord with your observation that some people are flat out injury prone. Let someone else take the risk based on "sample size."

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/JasonLaCanfora/status/442711075008827392
https://twitter.com/JasonLaCanfora/status/442711347454029824

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
Sorry, those numbers are simply not realistic given what Grimes and Shields have gotten and what Davis is rumored to be looking for. "$8-9M"is not going to get it done. Start at $10 - like Talib's agents will - and go from there. Further, you've left out what the guaranteed money would be, which is kinda important when you told us you'll be cutting him after three years. 
 
And if you think Talib's hip is 28...you're nuts. His hip is probably closer to AARP eligibility. And you kinda need a hip to play CB. It boggles my mind that so many otherwise smart, rational posters (you, SN) have decided that Talib's injury history and disciplinary record are just something to be waved away as an irrelevancy.
 
Paying any player more than 5% of the cap when they have a long-term and probably degenerative health problem AND are one bad taxi cab ride from a year long suspension is a bad idea.
 
But OK, same question for you Northeastern that I gave to SN - WHEN Talib is injured or suspended, what are you doing to "fix" the secondary and how much is that going to cost?

 
I don't waive the issues as irrelevant. I am concerned about the hip, everyone is. I'm not as concerned about the disciplinary pieces and maybe i should be.
 
If they go and sign Tillman, Munnerlyn, Verner or some combination of a couple good players, I'll be happy to let Talib go.
 
Once you get past the top 5-6 it's a bunch of guys that all have problems. What I don't want to see is they bring in Bailey, Jammer, Samuel etc. and pay 2-3 guys combined $10mm a year and hope one works out. None of them will have the ceiling Talib does and they all have issues. 
 
If you go after Talib and give him $18 million guaranteed, with some garbage money on the backend of the deal, and he isn't healthy then it's not putting them in a horrible cap position. If Talib wants $11-$12 mil a year for 5 years with $30 mil guaranteed good bye.
 
If you do get him, draft a CB and bring in a couple cheap guys and hope for the best.

 

[Phragle]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter  4m
Vikings re-signed DE Everson Griffin, as @rapsheet reported. Told it's a 5-year, $42.5 million deal that includes $20 mil gtd, per source.
 
 
Seems like every FA is going to be expensive.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yikes, that is a huge overpay. That Ninkovich contract is looking pretty good right now, though the Pats still need someone else at that position. It looks like their best bet is either going to be the draft or if Allen is willing to take less money and the Pats are on his list, because the market that was just set is not going to be in the Pats' price range. The contrast between this year's market and last year's is looking pretty stark in terms of the money being thrown around.

 

[jsinger121]

With the way this market is shaping up expect another Building 19 shopping spree for the Patriots.

 

[Dogman]

With the way the FA market is shaping up and the cost to sign a FA top tier CB, it may actually be worthwhile to explore the actual cost of a Revis trade. 
 
I'm in agreement with 121. Talib, with his injury history and what will be a huge payday for him, should be passed on.  If the Pats have to overpay, may as well get the most for their money.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sounds like Cromartie is moving on.

https://twitter.com/cro31/status/442731457317199873

He has been cut
https://twitter.com/mmehtanydn/status/442733543710814208

 

[NortheasternPJ]

It's a shame he didn't thank them for the payday loan advance to pay for his child support.

I agree with dogman, if Talib and co are,going to go for 12 a year I'd heavily look at Revis at that point.

 

[RedOctober3829]

It's a shame he didn't thank them for the payday loan advance to pay for his child support.

I agree with dogman, if Talib and co are,going to go for 12 a year I'd heavily look at Revis at that point.

This is what I've been saying since the Revis rumors have come out. I'd rather pay more for a better player.

 

[Super Nomario]

Sign TJ Ward to pair with McCourty. Grab a low priced veteran corner (Tillman?/Bailey?) to supplement Dennard & Ryan on the outside. Bring in some UDFA candidates. 

OK.
 

I get it. Talib was GREAT last year until he got hurt. But he will ALWAYS get hurt. He is nearing 30 and has never played a full season; every year has been affected with either a leg/hip injury OR a suspension. There is no reason to ignore his injury history OR his status as a repeat offender in both the substance abuse program and the general off-field transgressions. 
 
Talib is all risk. There in no way he stays healthy or out of trouble and gives you full value over the life of a contract. 
 
When Talib gets hurt and is paid very well, what are YOU doing to keep the secondary from "reverting back"?

I'm not dismissing the risk. But I think you're overstating it based on the timing of his injuries. Much like Gronk, he's unfortunately been injured for the playoffs (actually in the playoff game) the last couple years. I expect he probably will only be available for 75% of snaps in future seasons - but hopefully we'll have better timing as far as when he's hurt. I also think in general it's a pretty injury-prone position. Grimes and Revis both missed pretty much all 2012. DRC played fewer snaps than Talib this year. Tillman and Bailey, the two names you mention above, played about half the snaps Talib did this year. I'm not dismissing the individual concerns here, which are real, but I don't think they're as dramatic as you're making out.
 
That said: they absolutely do need a backup plan for Talib when he's hurt. Dennard and Ryan are decent young corners (and their development is important to the secondary) but they don't have the size to compete with the classic #1 WRs. I'd draft a corner with some size (maybe Pierre Desir or Courtney Bridget or Keith McGill) and try to groom him behind Talib, and I'd be open to guys like Tillman, Bailey, and Cromartie if they're inexpensive enough.
 

If they go and sign Tillman, Munnerlyn, Verner or some combination of a couple good players, I'll be happy to let Talib go.

Munnerlyn's 5'8". Verner's 5'10". These guys are giving up way too much size to guys like Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas. They're maybe upgrades on Arrington or Dennard; they're not replacements for Talib.

 

[Morning Woodhead]

<p>
Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter  4m
Vikings re-signed DE Everson Griffin, as @rapsheet reported. Told it's a 5-year, $42.5 million deal that includes $20 mil gtd, per source.

Holy shit. This market is going to be crazy. Not ideal for the way the Pats typically do off season business.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

No idea if Volin was basing this on anything.

@BenVolin: Probably $18+ million guaranteed over 2 years RT @RichMil15529407: @BenVolin so talibs gonna get 10 mill a year right??

 

[Stitch01]

While I think that's a reasonable course of action to take, I think the flexibility Talib gives the Patriots defense by being able to play press-man and sometimes Cover-0 would be sorely missed.

I agree, I think Talib leaving sucks because he can't be replaced on a 1 for 1 basis and I think paying him a market deal sucks given his hip and other issues.

 

[pdaj]

Per RW:

 

Jets released CB Antonio Cromartie.
 

The move saves $9.5 million in cap room, clearing a $4.3 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, and $200,000 workout bonus off the books. Cromartie was a legit shutdown corner in 2012, but his play slipped dramatically in 2013 as he battled a chronic hip injury, appearing stiffer than ever. Still only 30 years old -- he turns in April -- Cromartie will be a boom-or-bust free agent signing. The Jets have flirted with free agent Alterraun Verner, and appear poised to move on
 

 

[soxfan121]

 I'm not dismissing the individual concerns here, which are real, but I don't think they're as dramatic as you're making out.

 
Possibly but including Revis one year missed with an ACL to Talib's pattern for missing at least one game in every season of his pro career seems like minimizing the severity of Talib's injury history. 
 
And I'm sorry, but Talib is one bad cab ride from an eight or full season suspension. There's no non-dramatic way to put that. It's a huge red flashing light that just doesn't get enough mention when we talk about Talib and risk. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
Possibly but including Revis one year missed with an ACL to Talib's pattern for missing at least one game in every season of his pro career seems like minimizing the severity of Talib's injury history. 
 
And I'm sorry, but Talib is one bad cab ride from an eight or full season suspension. There's no non-dramatic way to put that. It's a huge red flashing light that just doesn't get enough mention when we talk about Talib and risk. 

This risk is no different than the one that will face Josh Gordon when he wants to get paid.

 

[soxfan121]

This risk is no different than the one that will face Josh Gordon when he wants to get paid.

 
What injury has hampered every single season of Josh Gordon's career? 
 
You can be injury prone (Amendola) or a character risk (Gordon) but you can't be both. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
What injury has hampered every single season of Josh Gordon's career? 
 
You can be injury prone (Amendola) or a character risk (Gordon) but you can't be both. 

 
You can if you're Terrell Owens

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
What injury has hampered every single season of Josh Gordon's career? 
 
You can be injury prone (Amendola) or a character risk (Gordon) but you can't be both. 

I'm advocating on your side, 121.  Teams wanting to give Gordon a huge payday will have to be sure that their investment doesn't end up in jail.  Talib is the same way.

 

[mpx42]

Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Branden Albert is expected to sign with the Miami Dolphins for an average of $9.5 million annually.
If the Ravens can reach a compromise on a deal with Monroe, it's expected to fall somewhere between $8.5 million to $9 million, according to sources. Sources said there are other undisclosed NFL teams that are expected to bid on Monroe if he hits the open market Tuesday afternoon when the free-agent signing period begins.
St. Louis Rams offensive tackle Rodger Saffold is expected to sign with the Oakland Raiders for roughly $8 million per year, but he is still in talks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders offensive tackle Jared Veldheer is expected to sign with the Arizona Cardinals for between $7 million and $7.5 million.
Cincinnati Bengals offensive tackle Anthony Collins is expected to sign with the Buccaneers for between $6.5 million to $7 million provided that he doesn't re-sign with the Bengals.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bal-sources-ravens-maintaining-dialogue-with-eugene-monroe-still-hopeful-deal-could-be-reached-20140309,0,3032756.story
 
The Baltimore Sun with a detailed look at the tackle market right now. The Dolphins are going to have to spend a lot of cap space on rebuilding that offensive line - nearly $10m on one player is just the start of that.

 

[Seels]

I've literally never heard of Anthony Collins. All those prices are crazy, completely fucking crazy.

 

[Super Nomario]

Possibly but including Revis one year missed with an ACL to Talib's pattern for missing at least one game in every season of his pro career seems like minimizing the severity of Talib's injury history. 

Talib has averaged missing 3 games a year for his career, basically. If I knew he was going to average that over his next deal, I'd be fine with that and hope the timing works out so it's not the playoffs. I'm guessing that's not too far off the average for a CB that plays every down. This is where the medical staff has to make its money, I think: they need to determine whether Talib's hip is a chronic but manageable problem that's going to crop up from time to time but not really worsen or whether it's a degenerative thing that eventually is going to cost him a season or possibly his career. I don't know the answer to that question, and I don't think it makes a lot of sense to make assumptions from the outside looking in.
 

And I'm sorry, but Talib is one bad cab ride from an eight or full season suspension. There's no non-dramatic way to put that. It's a huge red flashing light that just doesn't get enough mention when we talk about Talib and risk.

Is "one bad cab ride" slang I'm not familiar with? I don't really follow pop culture.
 
Just to be clear as to what you're position is: are you saying, "don't sign Talib at what I think he'll cost" (i.e., $9-10MM+) or don't sign him, period? Are you OK signing him at $7 MM? What if you can structure it so they cap hit is $7-8 in the first couple years and then it jumps to $11 MM year three (or you eat some dead money)?

 

[kenneycb]

No it means he's one bad incident, such as a cab ride back from the bar/club gone wrong, from getting suspended.

 

[bradmahn]

usually it's the lack of a cab ride that turns into trouble for these guys, though. let's try another phrase.

 

[Super Nomario]

No it means he's one bad incident, such as a cab ride back from the bar/club gone wrong, from getting suspended.

How does a cab ride go wrong? Is this a reference I'm not aware of? SF121 used the same phrase twice, like this is a known thing.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Talib got in some trouble while in Tampa bay for beating up a cab driver

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yeah, but that's legal in Florida.

 

[bougrj1]

Yeah, but that's legal in Florida.

Not when the black guy does it...

 

[DJnVa]

Thoughts on Darren Sproles? ESPN Radio this morning was really talking up Sproles being a perfect fit for NE. As they're talking, I'm thinking "Uh, Vereen..." but they talked of putting Vereen and Sproles on the field at the same time.

 

[Super Nomario]

Thoughts on Darren Sproles? ESPN Radio this morning was really talking up Sproles being a perfect fit for NE. As they're talking, I'm thinking "Uh, Vereen..." but they talked of putting Vereen and Sproles on the field at the same time.

I don't get the idea of putting them on the field at the same time. The advantage of these guys is that they establish a running threat and usually draw a LB in coverage, and they're tough for most LB to handle. But having two of them doesn't establish a better running threat than just one (since neither is a FB type), and if a team assigns a DB in coverage it's not an advantage for the offense. Maybe this would make sense for a team with read option concepts (since they can do some triple-option shenanigans), but I don't see what the Pats would gain from it versus a 3rd WR or 2nd TE.
 
That said, Sproles is probably better than Vereen (though he's considerably older) and Vereen's a FA after next season, so I could see this working if the price is right. Sproles also has return experience, which would be valuable if they lose Edelman.

 

[Stitch01]

Hooman reupped
 
To answer a question posed in the news thread, no, I dont think Hooman/DJ Williams is enough of a non-Gronk group to go into the season with.  I think the Pats either need to spend a high draft pick here or go get another vet TE and still have it at the very top of the offseason priority list.  Think its really asking a lot of an offense that relies on converting third downs (i.e. not a great deep ball passing game) to do so without a pass catching threat at TE and Gronk is a complete wild card for '14 IMHO.

 

[soxfan121]

I agree they need a guy who can move the chains on 3rd down. I don't know that it needs to be a TE. 
 
I think Hooman is a perfectly good player so long as he isn't getting paid more (ok, small raise) than last year. I can't imagine he was expensive in guarantees, so the base salaries will matter. Another one handed TD catch probably makes this worth the money.

 

[Stitch01]

I like the signing given he should cost practically nothing, he's an adequate JAG that knows the system, but think he's stretched if he's anything other than a third TE.

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/443064904874876930

 

[soxhop411]

T.J. Moe being released seem odd to anyone else?

 

[Section15Box113]

T.J. Moe being released seem odd to anyone else?

Surprised me as well.  I thought he'd be in the mix to fill a slot role out of camp.
 
Seems to me these are the tea leaves:
(1) rehab is going poorly and he just won't develop as a player
(2) at least one if not both of Edelman/Amendola are back, or
(3) the FO has an agreement in place for someone else to fill that role.
 
If (1), I'd think you'd give it more time to play out, but that's just me.  Anyone picking up rumblings?

 

[Shelterdog]

Surprised me as well.  I thought he'd be in the mix to fill a slot role out of camp.
 
Seems to me these are the tea leaves:
(1) rehab is going poorly and he just won't develop as a player
(2) at least one if not both of Edelman/Amendola are back, or
(3) the FO has an agreement in place for someone else to fill that role.
 
If (1), I'd think you'd give it more time to play out, but that's just me.  Anyone picking up rumblings?

 
I think it's all about Moe and has nothing to do with other moves.  If you think the guy can be a reasonable slot receiver in 2014 (at least practice squad worthy) than you keep him at this point even if you're 100% committed to bringing back Edelman and Amendola--roster spots aren't at a premium at this point and Edelman and Amendola could always tear ACLs day one of training camp.  Maybe there's some marginal counterintelligence value to cutting him (people will think you're re-signing Edelman?) but it's such a marginal move that it probably doesn't help on that front either.

 

[Section15Box113]

 
I think it's all about Moe and has nothing to do with other moves.  If you think the guy can be a reasonable slot receiver in 2014 (at least practice squad worthy) than you keep him at this point even if you're 100% committed to bringing back Edelman and Amendola--roster spots aren't at a premium at this point and Edelman and Amendola could always tear ACLs day one of training camp.  Maybe there's some marginal counterintelligence value to cutting him (people will think you're re-signing Edelman?) but it's such a marginal move that it probably doesn't help on that front either.

 
Don't disagree with your take at all.  Timing just seems odd, given that there's no real carrying cost to keeping him around for now.  Obviously could be as simple as his recovery is slow/suggests he won't be the same, that he struggled with the playbook, or they weren't high on him in the first place.

 

[soxhop411]

Don't disagree with your take at all. Timing just seems odd, given that there's no real carrying cost to keeping him around for now. Obviously could be as simple as his recovery is slow/suggests he won't be the same, that he struggled with the playbook, or they weren't high on him in the first place.

I am pretty sure they were extremely high on him when they signed him as they gave him a pretty large contract for an UDFA. And they beat 6 other teams trying to sign him.

“@MikeReiss: T.J. Moe landed on season-ending IR last year (Achilles). Pats had competitive situation to sign him, bidding against 6 other teams.”

 

[lambeau]

I can't imagine Edelman is returning; Kurt Warner on NFL called him the #2 receiver available--sounds like Amendola money.

BTW it was Damien Woody proposing on ESPN that Vereen and Sproles in a two-back shotgun set with Gronk would create match-up nightmares at LB.

 

[Section15Box113]

I am pretty sure they were extremely high on him when they signed him as they gave him a pretty large contract for an UDFA. And they beat 6 other teams trying to sign him.

“@MikeReiss: T.J. Moe landed on season-ending IR last year (Achilles). Pats had competitive situation to sign him, bidding against 6 other teams.”

Exactly. Which is why I had his name circled in the first place. And my surprise at the release.
 
FWIW from Reiss' Blog:
 

 
The move comes as a mild surprise because the Patriots guaranteed Moe $30,000 last year as part of a three-year contract, which was the highest guaranteed figure among the team's undrafted players. Moe had offers and interest from six other teams, according to Brei.

Given Moe's production at Missouri, and the Patriots' success with shifty slot receivers, Moe was viewed as a potential darkhorse to make an impact. But he tore his Achilles in offseason camps last May and ultimately landed on season-ending injured reserve.

In making the move to release Moe, Brei said the Patriots told him they were simply moving in another direction, but considered the door open for a return in the future depending on how things unfold.

Ok, probably enough T.J. Moe talk. I'll let my binky go (for now).

 

[Shelterdog]

I am pretty sure they were extremely high on him when they signed him as they gave him a pretty large contract for an UDFA. And they beat 6 other teams trying to sign him.

“@MikeReiss: T.J. Moe landed on season-ending IR last year (Achilles). Pats had competitive situation to sign him, bidding against 6 other teams.”

 
BB understands sunk costs.  If you thought a guy would pan out and he hasn't then move on regardless of how good you thought he was going to be.
 
I've always suspected that random guys like this get cut if they miss a rehab assignment or don't hit a particular recovery benchmark or show up a couple of pounds heavy or what not.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
BB understands sunk costs.  If you thought a guy would pan out and he hasn't then move on regardless of how good you thought he was going to be.
 
I've always suspected that random guys like this get cut if they miss a rehab assignment or don't hit a particular recovery benchmark or show up a couple of pounds heavy or what not.

Sunk costs when it comes to UDFAs are so meaningless it's not even worth discussing.  Cutting TJ Moe cost them less than $3,000.  More than that falls out of Kraft's couch cushions.

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/MadDogRadio/status/443091801227137025

 

[KiltedFool]

LaMarr Woodley cut, designated as a post June 1 release.
 
 
 
Adam Schefter         @AdamSchefter Follow

Steelers will release LB LaMarr Woodley at 4 ET Tuesday, designate him a post June 1 casualty, per source. He will be free to sign Tuesday.

1:33 PM - 10 Mar 2014

 

 

[E5 Yaz]

SI prediction of Finley and Sproles to New England
 
http://nfl.si.com/2014/03/10/2014-nfl-free-agency-predictions-nfc/

 

[mpx42]

https://twitter.com/ClaytonESPN/status/443097473251164160