The 2014 Offseason Thread

[SeoulSoxFan]

Offseason (hopefully) still several weeks away, but here's a "Pre-Offseason" offseason thread to keep relevant discussions going. 
 
Please note there's a separate draft thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/79610-the-really-too-early-nfl-draft-thread/ so this part of the discussion can be potential roster moves, cap implications, and relevant FA news for the Pats. 
 
For potential FA, Overthecap.com has a list with 2013 salaries: http://overthecap.com/freeagents.php?Position=QB&Year=2014

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I expect that it will be a quiet offseason for us, as we have a lot of money committed for 2014 and not that many FAs.

I'd like to resign Edelman on friendly terms as he's clearly TB's most reliable receiver in a non-Gronk world. I have a hard time predicting his market though.

My guess is that Talib takes more to go elsewhere but I make a run at him in the 5/25 (10 guaranteed) range that was common for CBs in last year's market.

I try to bring back Wendell and Hooman on the cheap. Everybody else I let walk.

I hope BB/Kraft sit down with Vince, explain that we'd love him to be a Patriot for life and he's a special player to the franchise, but that there's no fucking way we can afford a $11M cap charge next year for a 33-year-old NT coming off achilles surgery. Work out a restructure for a two or three year deal that keeps him in Foxboro for the rest of his career.

I think its also worthwhile to see whether McCourty wants to lock in his future and sign an extension rather than hitting FA in 2015.

 

[Stitch01]

http://patscap.com/2014patscap.html
 
Miguel's '14 Pats cap snapshot for reference.
 
McCourty extension has to be one of the highest priorities IMO.  Very good production, very versatile, strong presence in the locker room by all acccounts, has been reasonably healthy.  Unless he's looking for something really stupid I expect he's locked up this offseason..
 
Solder extension not far behind on the priority list.  Slater is also up after '14 as well as the Vereen/Ridley/Bolden troika (Id think they'd at least talk with Vereen).  Mallett is up after '14, but I have to imagine he's going to look for a spot where he can play before he's 30.
 
Id like to sign Edelman, but I wouldnt give him something like the Amendola contract given a little bit of a cap crunch, youth at the position, and the fact that Amendola is almost certainly on the roster.  Too bad the Pats didnt get him for two years when the market was non-existent last summer.  Like you, Im a little confused where that market will shake out, hoping something like 3/12 gets it done.
 
Wilfork has to be either restructured or cut for $11MM (would save $7.5MM). I would guess it depends on how he looks in the offseason coming off of surgery how a restructuring would shake out.
Potential cuts/restructures besides Wilfork are Connolly ($2.5MM savings, Id lean cut), Ghost (restructure/extension, $3.8MM cap number for a kicker is high), Sopoaga (near certain cut, saves $2MM, sucks to eat the $1MM of dead money given he's done shit), Gregory ($1.8MM of savings, Harmon has looked decent, Id lean cut but BB seems to value his consistency), Adrian Wilson (id think cut to save $600K but hard to say)
 
Id expect they guarantee a couple of salaries/convert into bonuses to help effectively spread out the dead money lump from Hernandez
 
As of now Id say they need to get a vet FA/spend a reasonably high draft pick on a TE and interior DL and they have to think about what to do at interior OL with Connelly and Wendell and at RB given Blount is a FA this season and everyone else is up next year. 
 
Everywhere else on the roster is servicable or better as is, so can just take the best available upgrade opportunities.
 
EDIT: I think Talib is gone, I expect someone to pay for what he showed to start this season and I dont think it will be NE.  Ryan/Dennard/McCourty/Harmon with Arrington in the nickel and Gregory if they keep him is a decent group even if Talib walks.

 

[Phragle]

I really don't like the RG and center situation. The guy I badly want is Alex Mack. Replacing one of the worst centers in the NFL with one of the best would have an huge impact on the offense. He's also young for a center - elite centers lay for a long time. I don't think he's going to get franchised. If he is cheap enough Jon Asamoah would be a good back-up plan. Both are scheme fits.
 
I'll be shocked if Edelman isn't back. I think he's is way more valuable to Brady and Belichick than he is to anyone else. 
 

Solder extension not far behind on the priority list.

 
I disagree. With his concussion issues I think he's way too risky to extend this offseason.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I disagree. With his concussion issues I think he's way too risky to extend this offseason.

The Solder issue is a little more complicated as well because, as with all first round rookies starting in 2011, the Pats actually have an option for 2015. The tricky thing is that they have to pick up that option this offseason, its not all that cheap (average of 3rd to 25th highest paid players at the position, unclear to me whether that's salary or cap hit), and the money is guaranteed for injury. My guess is that they pick up the option unless they're really down on Solder's medical condition.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah then id do the option on Solder. The alternative is probably using the first rounder to groom his replacement.

 

[lambeau]

Would Dennis Pitta be an alternative to using the first-round pick on a TE?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

You're the Pats GM. How much and how long do you pay Edelman?

 

[RedOctober3829]

You're the Pats GM. How much and how long do you pay Edelman?

I'd offer him the same contract as Amendola. 5/31 with 10 million guaranteed that includes roster bonuses to protect themselves in case he gets hurt.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'd offer him the same contract as Amendola. 5/31 with 10 million guaranteed that includes roster bonuses to protect themselves in case he gets hurt.

 
He had a great year but I think that's a little high. 6 per year may be what he ends up getting but that's a hell of a raise from a little under 800k this year. How about that for value though? 100+ rec and 1000+ yds for under a mil.

 

[jsinger121]

4 years 22 million with 10 guaranteed is what I would give him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
He had a great year but I think that's a little high. 6 per year may be what he ends up getting but that's a hell of a raise from a little under 800k this year. How about that for value though? 100+ rec and 1000+ yds for under a mil.

Amendola's deal is very team friendly though. His base salary increases as the years go so you aren't committing that much to him on the front end besides the signing bonus and the guaranteed money.

Here's the details on Amendola:

Only $10 million is guaranteed, along with a $6 million signing bonus. The receiver will make relatively modest salaries of $2 million this year; $3 million in 2014; $4 million in 2015; $$5 million in 2016; and $6 million in 2017. He can also make up to an additional $500,000 each season based on the number of games he is on the active roster.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/england-patriots-team-cut-danny-amendola-season-160600274--nfl.html

If he's not worth the 5 and 6 million you cut him.

 

[PedrosRedGlove]

4 years 22 million with 10 guaranteed is what I would give him.

I'd offer him the same contract as Amendola. 5/31 with 10 million guaranteed that includes roster bonuses to protect themselves in case he gets hurt.

I have a feeling Edelman will want closer to Amendola dollars unfortunately. Whether he deserves it or not is up for debate. I disagree with phrag that Julian is that much more valuable to Brady and Belichick than the rest of the league. His chemistry with Brady is a huge plus and Bill must love his versatility, but I feel saying that discounts Edelman's skills.
He doesn't have quite the track record that Amendola did, but he isn't that far off, especially after putting up a 100/1,000 season this year. He's also one of the best and most consistent punt returners in the league. I think I'd be happy with something like 4/26/10, but I'm guessing his agent will stick tough to the Amendola figures.

 

[Dogman]

 
He had a great year but I think that's a little high. 6 per year may be what he ends up getting but that's a hell of a raise from a little under 800k this year. How about that for value though? 100+ rec and 1000+ yds for under a mil.

 
I don't think it matters one bit how much of a raise it is.  He is a 100/1000 man now who is also a top 5 punt returner in the NFL.  I don't think 6 per year is high at all as that is the going rate for a slot receiver with his skill set.  
 
I think he gets Amendola's contract with 14-15 guaranteed with very similar reachable incentives based on games played.  
 
One other thought is that irrespective of the chemistry stuff, allowing Julian to walk means that Brady would need to count on Amendola and Gronk's health and Thompkins/Boyce/Dobson making the second year leap. That's a lot to gamble on given that the Pats can afford to pay Julian the above contract. IOW, that contract is much less risky now than it was at the start of the season given the offensive reward the Pats got this year.

 

[Phragle]

I think you guys are overestimating his market a bit. I asked a bunch of football guys on twitter and got two answers.
 
3 years/12M, 7 guaranteed
 
and 
 
Two year deal. 8 mill w/ a higher guarantee, maybe 5? Still have DA under contract.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
I don't think it matters one bit how much of a raise it is.  He is a 100/1000 man now who is also a top 5 punt returner in the NFL.  I don't think 6 per year is high at all as that is the going rate for a slot receiver with his skill set.  
 
I think he gets Amendola's contract with 14-15 guaranteed with very similar reachable incentives based on games played.  
 
One other thought is that irrespective of the chemistry stuff, allowing Julian to walk means that Brady would need to count on Amendola and Gronk's health and Thompkins/Boyce/Dobson making the second year leap. That's a lot to gamble on given that the Pats can afford to pay Julian the above contract. IOW, that contract is much less risky now than it was at the start of the season given the offensive reward the Pats got this year.

 
I think it does matter. He came back last year on a one year next to nothing deal, because no one else wanted him. Now because he put up one really good year the Pats are going to pony up and pay him? The FO is smarter than that. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Amendola's deal is very team friendly though. His base salary increases as the years go so you aren't committing that much to him on the front end besides the signing bonus and the guaranteed money.

Here's the details on Amendola:

Only $10 million is guaranteed, along with a $6 million signing bonus. The receiver will make relatively modest salaries of $2 million this year; $3 million in 2014; $4 million in 2015; $$5 million in 2016; and $6 million in 2017. He can also make up to an additional $500,000 each season based on the number of games he is on the active roster.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/england-patriots-team-cut-danny-amendola-season-160600274--nfl.html

If he's not worth the 5 and 6 million you cut him.

 
You make a good point. The Pats usually make sure the terms are team friendly, and I'm sure that will end up happening with Julian.

 

[Dogman]

 
I think it does matter. He came back last year on a one year next to nothing deal, because no one else wanted him. Now because he put up one really good year the Pats are going to pony up and pay him? The FO is smarter than that. 

 
 
Well, terms similar to Amendola give the Pats a ton of protection against injury.  High signing bonus and low base offers flexibility, especially with reachable incentives. If he continues to put up 100/1000 seasons, he will definitely be worth it.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Per Miguel at @PatsCap.com:
 

@patscap  As of now I have the Pats with 6,958,006 in cap space for the 2014 season with 63 signed or tendered players... Yes, my numbers include the rollover

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Ben Volin tweets re: how 2015 Pats FA situation looks like:
 
"#Patriots have as many key free agents in 2015 as they do in 2014 & 2016 combined"
 

 
Lots of names, but only a few critical signings (McCourty, Solder, Vereen, Wilfork - perhaps Slater). 

 

[Phragle]

Without context it's not gospel, but it is worth posting
 
PFF Free Agency Tracker

 

[bakahump]

Ahh.... we can dream about Jimmy Graham.

 

[Super Nomario]

Ben Volin tweets re: how 2015 Pats FA situation looks like:
 
"#Patriots have as many key free agents in 2015 as they do in 2014 & 2016 combined"
 

 
Lots of names, but only a few critical signings (McCourty, Solder, Vereen, Wilfork - perhaps Slater). 

When looking at the upcoming offseason, the 2015 FAs are key as potential cap casualties:

• Connolly - can save $3 MM by cutting him (~$1 MM in dead money)
• Gostkowski - can save $3 MM by cutting him ($800 K in dead money)
• Gregory - can save $2.35 MM by cutting him (~$833 K in dead money)
• Kelly - can save $2.5 MM by cutting him ($500 K in dead money)
• Wilfork - can save $8 MM by cutting him ($3.6 MM in dead money)

I think there's a good chance the first four are all cut, and Wilfork will likely be restructured. I can't imagine he's going to play 2014 at a $11.6 MM cap figure.

 

[ragnarok725]

I would be shocked with a Gost cut. He's been pretty solid this year, and the cap number would be pretty close to last year (3.8 vs. 3.4). I think an extension is likely, but an outright cut would be silly unless there's a Ryan Allen-type guy in camp.
 
I think I can see the other three being cut, with Gregory sadly being the least likely of the three. There isn't an obvious replacement for Connolly either unless they sign/draft high. I don't like either of them but something tells me they may stick around. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

When looking at the upcoming offseason, the 2015 FAs are key as potential cap casualties:

• Connolly - can save $3 MM by cutting him (~$1 MM in dead money)
• Gostkowski - can save $3 MM by cutting him ($800 K in dead money)
• Gregory - can save $2.35 MM by cutting him (~$833 K in dead money)
• Kelly - can save $2.5 MM by cutting him ($500 K in dead money)
• Wilfork - can save $8 MM by cutting him ($3.6 MM in dead money)

I think there's a good chance the first four are all cut, and Wilfork will likely be restructured. I can't imagine he's going to play 2014 at a $11.6 MM cap figure.

 
Plus a decent chance that McCourty is extended this offseason and a very high chance that Solder's option for 2015 is picked up (which needs to be done this offseason).  If all that happens, then 2015 actually could be the least busy offseason in the 2014-16 window.

 

[Super Nomario]

I would be shocked with a Gost cut. He's been pretty solid this year, and the cap number would be pretty close to last year (3.8 vs. 3.4). I think an extension is likely, but an outright cut would be silly unless there's a Ryan Allen-type guy in camp.

The big difference between this year and next year is that he had $1.6 MM in dead money, so they would have only saved $1.8 by cutting him. Next season he's only got $800 K in dead money, so the savings ($3 MM) is considerable. I think they will at least bring in camp competition, though I wouldn't be surprised by an extension. He's been so good and so consistent and he's still 29 (turns 30 later this month) so he's got a lot of years yet. 
 

 I think I can see the other three being cut, with Gregory sadly being the least likely of the three. There isn't an obvious replacement for Connolly either unless they sign/draft high. I don't like either of them but something tells me they may stick around.

I think they will cut Connolly but re-sign Wendell. He's had a down year observationally and per PFF, but he was pretty good last year, and he probably doesn't have a lot of obvious suitors - he's on the small side and has no pedigree. I think he has more value to the Pats than anyone else so I think they can get a deal done at a reasonable rate - maybe something similar to Connolly's current deal (3 years, $11 MM, $4.5 MM guaranteed). They can replace Connolly with Cannon, Kline, or a draft pick (I detailed some options in the draft thread; I think Nevada's Joel Bitonio is a particularly good fit).

 

[soxhop411]

what do we do about LeGarrette Blount? Would the Pats think about bringing him back?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

what do we do about LeGarrette Blount? Would the Pats think about bringing him back?

 
LGBT is about to make a pretty dough -- it's not a particularly deep group of UFA RBs.
 
Other teams may feel LGBT fits Pats better than themselves, but he also took a big salary cut (over $1m) joining the Pats and may look to make that up.

 

[soxhop411]

is this the offseason thread now? or is there going to be a new thread?

 

[Morning Woodhead]

What's the cap hit for cutting Amendola. Asking for a friend.

That contract would look nice on Edelman.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

is this the offseason thread now? or is there going to be a new thread?

 
Why not -- changing topic title to reflect the reality. 

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I have absolutely no idea what to do with Talib. Clearly the defense needs him and he likes it here, but it's insanity to expect him to stay healthy for 16 games and the playoffs, so I don't see how you can pay him. I have no idea.

 

[H78]

I think you don't bring Talib back. Thy drafted well with Dennard and Ryan and despite both not playing all that well today they're solid corners overall. I think you cut or restructure Vince, pass on Talib, do whatever it takes to shed Arrington, and sign/draft DB depth. Gregory should also be gone.

They NEED a playmaking WR. It's no longer a "Nice to have," it's a NEED. They need to forget the draft at this position and look into the FA market or a trade. Give Brady a freakin hand already. Also, resign Edelman and try to shed that Amendola guaranteed money.

 

[steveluck7]

I have absolutely no idea what to do with Talib. Clearly the defense needs him and he likes it here, but it's insanity to expect him to stay healthy for 16 games and the playoffs, so I don't see how you can pay him. I have no idea.

That's where i'm at. When he went out, i couldn't help but feel like it was his last game. He's got million dollar talent but you just can't rely on him to be there. It's frustrating as hell because this is the 2nd straight year that he's left the AFCCG with injury

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Talib had a WR target his ribs. It was a pretty cheap play by Welker. It's not like he strained a hammy or something. If the price is right, bring him back.

This was his 6th year in the nfl. He has never played 16 games in a season.

 

[soxhop411]

would the Pats trade up in the draft to grab a Wr/TE? 

 

[Byrdbrain]

What's the cap hit for cutting Amendola. Asking for a friend.

That contract would look nice on Edelman.

Cap hit is large until after next year. He's here at least one more season.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I'd love to see another big WR brought in. Brady makes his money on short and intermediate throws. They need someone that can win jump balls. I'd rather not give Brady more incentive to throw deep

 

[Stitch01]

I think you don't bring Talib back. Thy drafted well with Dennard and Ryan and despite both not playing all that well today they're solid corners overall. I think you cut or restructure Vince, pass on Talib, do whatever it takes to shed Arrington, and sign/draft DB depth. Gregory should also be gone.
They NEED a playmaking WR. It's no longer a "Nice to have," it's a NEED. They need to forget the draft at this position and look into the FA market or a trade. Give Brady a freakin hand already. Also, resign Edelman and try to shed that Amendola guaranteed money.

Amendola will be here. Edelman might not. Young WRs have to improve we won't spend many resources there this offseason imo

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Amendola will be here. Edelman might not. Young WRs have to improve we won't spend many resources there this offseason imo

 
Right.  You don't invest draft picks in WR who subsequently show promise as rookies, then freak out and throw money at Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks.

 

[H78]

would the Pats trade up in the draft to grab a Wr/TE? 

I wouldn't bet my money on it. They'll try to outsmart everyone again and end up with lackluster talent in a playoff game again next year. But they'll get a pass because most of their fans won't actually blame them for the lack of talent; the fans will instead focus on how "scrappy" they are in loss and how they're proud of them because they overachieved.

Sorry, had to let that one out (even though I know it'll twist many the wrong way). The DEFENSE overachieved, the GM let us down on offense, particularly at the WR position.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

As I'm sure it will be talked about in the draft thread Amaro or ASJ would give Brady another big play-making target. They already have some decent receivers. Brady NEEDS that playmaking TE. That was the thing missing from the offense for most of the year.

 

[H78]

Josh should have to take Amendola with him to Cleveland.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I wouldn't bet my money on it. They'll try to outsmart everyone again and end up with lackluster talent in a playoff game again next year. But they'll get a pass because most of their fans won't actually blame them for the lack of talent; the fans will instead focus on how "scrappy" they are in loss and how they're proud of them because they overachieved.
Sorry, had to let that one out (even though I know it'll twist many the wrong way). The DEFENSE overachieved, the GM let us down on offense, particularly at the WR position.

So the backups to the backups weren't good enough players for you? You realize thst it was Austin collie and Matt slater playing WR today but not by design, right?

 

[Stitch01]

I wouldn't bet my money on it. They'll try to outsmart everyone again and end up with lackluster talent in a playoff game again next year. But they'll get a pass because most of their fans won't actually blame them for the lack of talent; the fans will instead focus on how "scrappy" they are in loss and how they're proud of them because they overachieved.
Sorry, had to let that one out (even though I know it'll twist many the wrong way). The DEFENSE overachieved, the GM let us down on offense, particularly at the WR position.

WR was almost dead last on the list of problems today

 

[soxhop411]

Christopher Price ‏@cpriceNFL6s
Blount said he would like to be back in 2014.
 
https://twitter.com/cpriceNFL/status/425050645515620352

 

[riboflav]

First two draft picks: interior Olineman (Brady's kryptonite so need to protect inside better) and either interior Dlineman (old at this position) or LB (Spikes leaving and Hightower has his issues at times).
 
Continue to develop young WRs and young secondary.

 

[Jungleland]

I think the receiving options on the team were respectable given that the offseason plan was drawn up with the assumption that Hernandez and Gronk would be the focal points of the offense. Obviously the team took a step back on that side of the ball this year, but at the same time it's hard not to be impressed that they managed to field a strong offense with the personnel they had.

There's reason to be optimistic about some of these players going forward. Aaron Dobson in particular had a real nice stretch around the middle of the season. That said, I'd welcome a similar approach to the wide receiver search as they've employed with cornerbacks over the last five years. It's probably time to draft one in the first round, and just because they've already poured recent draft resources into the position doesn't mean they shouldn't continue to do so.

 

[Seels]

With Collins Hightower and Mayo I think it's incredibly unlikely they use a pick on a LB in the first 3-4 rounds. I want OL DL and TE in some order, probably leaning towards TE if ASJ is available. I don't think you take an interior Oline that early in the draft, and Dline really depends on who is there.

 

[soxhop411]

is Eric Decker a target if he goes the FA route? Would be a nice pickup IMO