The 2014 Offseason Thread

[soxfan121]

I'd give up a lot to pair Jordan and Jones together for the next 10 years.

 
Based on what? Jordan is listed at 260...which is a laugh. He's a tall, thin (played in the 230s at Oregon) OLB who would cost multiple draft picks. He played 330 total defensive snaps and his defensive coordinator stated publicly that Jordan would only play in passing situations because “Dion is not going to be in there where teams are slugging it out running the football.” 
 

One interesting point is that reports are strongly suggesting that the cap will continue to climb in coming years. I just read one ESPN story that projects a cap > $140M next year and a cap around the $150M mark in 2016.

Our cap situation is not great for this year but we have 46 players under contract for 2015 for a total of $94M, plus several RFA's that could be resigned relatively cheaply and Nate Solder, who will have an option for 2015 in the $6-7M neighborhood that is likely to be picked up.

The bottom line is that we have a lot of cap flexibility around the corner, which creates some different possibilities for creative maneuvering this offseason. If we don't kick that much money into 2015, the Patriots could also be bigger players in FA next offseason than we've seen in a while.

 
I think kicking some costs that could be dealt with this offseason (Wilfork and Mankins in particular) into 2015 or 2016 is the smarter way to go. 
 
The budget has been screwed up by Hernandez. Their long term budget planning is irrevocably altered with that cap hit coming in 2014. So, a few things that might have been done this offseason should (and can) be pushed out to when the cap balloons. They've known this cap increase was coming - Kraft did the TV deal a few years back around the lockout and there was speculation then that the 2015/16 cap would be around $150M.
 
So, guarantee Vince $11M, tack on four years, put in a couple roster bonuses to inflate the overall value, cut the salaries to the vet minimum, put a bow on it at $18 or $20M for 3 years, and eat the $4M in 2016 when the cap is $150M ... AND you finally get the Hernandez grievance resolved (and as pointed out numerous times in this and other threads, that's about the earliest to expect anything on the Hernandez grievance - look how long the Fanene grievance has taken and he didn't kill anyone). 
 
Or, tack on another two seasons to Mankins deal, lower his 2014 cap number, give him a couple million as a sweetener and then be ready to axe him after 2015, again using the cap inflation to cut down the impact. 
 
I think the year to be active in FA is this one - cap is going up next year. Holes exist now and the team is in a four-year (max six) window with Brady. Having some GFIN consequences on retaining valuable but declining vets like Wilfork & Mankins minimizes the number of new bodies needed to simply field the team in 2014 AND allows them to immediately invest some "savings" (borrowed from the future) while also ameliorating (as much as possible) the pain of the Hernandez cap hit this season.

 

[Pumpsie]

Cap officially set at $133m.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24460973/nfl-salary-cap-set-at-133m

 

[vadertime]

A reporter on First Take(not Stephen A or Skip they are off) says the Patriots are interested in Hakeem Nicks. Not sure where he got his information.

 
Boston Herald had it a couple weeks ago.    http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/02/time_for_patriots_to_catch_up_at_wr
 
the article has been archived but rotoworld summarized it:
 
basically saying it fits their m.o. of buying low on guys.
 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5136/hakeem-nicks

 

[mpx42]

The Patriots do love those kind of buy low deals, but I don't really agree with Jeff Howe thinking Hakeem Nicks can be locked up for something like 2 years/$10 million. Not with with the kind of cap space floating out there - somebody will pay for past production.

 

[wutang112878]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1976858-dan-pompeis-read-option-new-dolphins-gm-believes-team-has-strong-foundation
 
Doubt anyone bites - cutting him saves nothing this year but around 5m next year, which is a chunk of change.

 
Trading him this year doesnt save any money either so this report doesnt make much sense because it seems foolish to trade him for a 4th round pick which would probably be the most he could fetch.  Next year its only ~$2M in savings

 

[lexrageorge]

I believe there would be some cap savings if they cut Amendola after June 1st.  They would see a charge of $1.2M for this season's bonus, another $375K for the roster bonus, which would result in a $3M savings.  The article should have mentioned this possibility.  
 
I still think the article is nothing but pure speculation; the Patriots organization seldom leaks their intentions, and everyone knows Amendola spent the entire season battling quite a difficult injury for a wide receiver.  I still say his performance in the opening game before he got hurt is what the Pats expected, and what we likely would have seen had he been healthy.  

 

[DJnVa]

Saints tag on Graham was non-exclusive tag. Other teams can offer and Saints can match. Cost is 2 #1s if they don't.

 

[soxhop411]

 
Trading him this year doesnt save any money either so this report doesnt make much sense because it seems foolish to trade him for a 4th round pick which would probably be the most he could fetch.  Next year its only ~$2M in savings

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyedNESN  now
If NE trades Amendola. RT @patscap: @DougKyedNESN Patriots would lose $645,000 in net cap space in 2014.
 
https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439807813838442496

 

[RedOctober3829]

PFT speculates Patriots and Broncos will look to trade for Darrelle Revis. With $16 million cap hits, I don't think so for the Patriots.

 

[Super Nomario]

PFT speculates Patriots and Broncos will look to trade for Darrelle Revis. With $16 million cap hits, I don't think so for the Patriots.

Tampa's on the hook for the bonus money no matter what, so I think it would just be $13. Still probably too rich for the Pats.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Tampa's on the hook for the bonus money no matter what, so I think it would just be $13. Still probably too rich for the Pats.

Couldn't they acquire him then restructure the contract to reduce the cap hits and turn more money into bonuses?

 

[Super Nomario]

Couldn't they acquire him then restructure the contract to reduce the cap hits and turn more money into bonuses?

You could, but his current contract is completely flat - salary of $13 MM and cap hit of $16 MM every year. So if reduce it short term, you have to make it up later on, and Revis has shown that he wants to max out what he earns.

 

[RedOctober3829]

You could, but his current contract is completely flat - salary of $13 MM and cap hit of $16 MM every year. So if reduce it short term, you have to make it up later on, and Revis has shown that he wants to max out what he earns.

Best case would be to reduce this years cap hit and push it forward knowing the cap is going up in future years.

 

[Phragle]

PFT speculates Patriots and Broncos will look to trade for Darrelle Revis. With $16 million cap hits, I don't think so for the Patriots.

 
Maybe he'd like to play for championships and stick it to the Jets twice a year. Could be worth something.
 

Tampa's on the hook for the bonus money no matter what, so I think it would just be $13. Still probably too rich for the Pats.

 
What does TB have to pay if they trade him? His contract is unique. It's essentially five years of $16 M options.

 

[Super Nomario]

What does TB have to pay if they trade him? His contract is unique. It's essentially five years of $16 M options.

Now that I look closer, you're right. Just more reason the Pats won't do it.

 

[Phragle]

If it costs more in cap space it will cost less in draft picks.

 

[Devizier]

I'm not sure the Patriots would be better suited with Revis at double the money that Talib might get.

 

[soxhop411]

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyedNESN  44s
Julian Edelman was originally scheduled to speak at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference today and canceled. Take that as you will.
 
https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288
 
So….?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyedNESN   [URL="https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288

https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288"]44s[/url]
Julian Edelman was originally scheduled to speak at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference today and canceled. Take that as you will.
 
[/COLOR][URL="https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288

https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288"]https://twitter.com/DougKyedNESN/status/439908841531404288[/url]
 
So.?

Means absolutely nothing in regards to his status.

 

[axx]

The implication is that he cancelled because he needed to talk to his agent about a new deal?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Field Yates ‏@FieldYates 12s
One potential franchise tag candidate goes off the board as the Dolphins officially re-sign top CB Brent Grimes
 

 

[Corsi]

Dolphins gave Pro-Bowl CB Brent Grimes a four-year, $32 million deal that includes $16 million guaranteed, per ESPN source.
 

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/440518741626195969

 

[RedOctober3829]

Talib isn't getting $8 million and if he thinks he is, then he's not going to be a Patriot.

 

[tims4wins]

Not Pats related, but the Bucs have new unis which incorporate the old orange cream color
 
http://www.buccaneers.com/news/article-1/New-Uniform-Design-Unveiled/b8944519-d276-482a-a9e7-d800fabb9401
 
Trying to find more pics
 
Edit: on first glance, what I really hate is the number font. Ghastly.
 
Double edit: apparently more pics will be released at 2pm ET, and also the black elements on the jersey and pants are supposedly pewter, which will be more apparent in the pics released later today. We shall see.
 

 

[Super Nomario]

Talib isn't getting $8 million and if he thinks he is, then he's not going to be a Patriot.

Why not? I know he's got $5 MM last year, but the increasing cap this year suggests last year's depressed market is the exception, not the rule; $8 MM strikes me as pretty fair. There are 14 CBs with cap figures of $8MM+ next year.
 
EDIT: I know there's a perception the Pats won't pay for corners, but they paid Samuel $7.79 MM under the franchise tag in 2007 when the cap was just $113 MM.

 

[tims4wins]

Why not? I know he's got $5 MM last year, but the increasing cap this year suggests last year's depressed market is the exception, not the rule; $8 MM strikes me as pretty fair. There are 14 CBs with cap figures of $8MM+ next year.
 
EDIT: I know there's a perception the Pats won't pay for corners, but they paid Samuel $7.79 MM under the franchise tag in 2007 when the cap was just $113 MM.

 
I agree with this. Would anyone object to a 3 year deal with $12M guaranteed and base salaries averaging $4M a year (so 3 years, $24M total)? Would that kind of deal work for the Pats?

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
I agree with this. Would anyone object to a 3 year deal with $12M guaranteed and base salaries averaging $4M a year (so 3 years, $24M total)? Would that kind of deal work for the Pats?

Grimes and Talib are both top corners but I don't think Talib will settle for 3 years and $24 million.  He's younger than Grimes by 3 years and they both have injury histories, but Grimes came back off his season-ending injury in 2012 to play all 16 games for Miami.  You could make a case that Grimes should get more money than Talib, but I think Talib will use his age(28) and his play last year before the injury to market himself as a better option than Grimes.  He'll say that the injury isn't a big concern because he didn't need surgery which we know to be false but there's going to be one team out there that will pay him if he does get to the open market.

 

[Super Nomario]

Grimes and Talib are both top corners but I don't think Talib will settle for 3 years and $24 million.  He's younger than Grimes by 3 years and they both have injury histories, but Grimes came back off his season-ending injury in 2012 to play all 16 games for Miami.  You could make a case that Grimes should get more money than Talib, but I think Talib will use his age(28) and his play last year before the injury to market himself as a better option than Grimes.  He'll say that the injury isn't a big concern because he didn't need surgery which we know to be false but there's going to be one team out there that will pay him if he does get to the open market.

That might be true, but that's pretty much the opposite of what you said above ("Talib isn't getting $8 million").

 

[Stitch01]

If Talib wants that deal or better then Im walking if Im the Pats.  Hard piece to replace, but too much money for a guy with Talib's injury/off-field history IMO.

 

[RedOctober3829]

That might be true, but that's pretty much the opposite of what you said above ("Talib isn't getting $8 million").

He isn't getting $8 million from the Patriots is my point.

 

[tims4wins]

The number font on the new Bucs unis has already reminded some of 1980s digital alarm clock font...
 

 

[Corsi]

The number font on the new Bucs unis has already reminded some of 1980s digital alarm clock font...
 

 
Looks like the A-Team Van to me.
 

 

[wutang112878]

EDIT: I know there's a perception the Pats won't pay for corners, but they paid Samuel $7.79 MM under the franchise tag in 2007 when the cap was just $113 MM.

 
They also paid Ty close to $10M when the cap was close to $80M

 

[RedOctober3829]

Anquan Boldin annouces on Twitter that he has reached terms with the 49ers.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

He isn't getting $8 million from the Patriots is my point.

The Patriots better hope that Logan Ryan can step in and start. Losing him and Spikes is not going to be fun.

EDIT: In regards to the Bucs uniforms, KILL IT, KILL IT WITH FIRE!!!!

 

[Jungleland]

Those Bucs uniforms are incredibly bad right down to the new, larger logo on the helmet. Am I that out of touch on what style designs Nike sells the most of? Weird to see a team in 2014 buck the trend of simple and modern looking and opt instead for the loud and futuristic stuff that characterized the 90's.

 

[soxfan121]

 
I agree with this. Would anyone object to a 3 year deal with $12M guaranteed and base salaries averaging $4M a year (so 3 years, $24M total)? Would that kind of deal work for the Pats?

 
His hip/hamstring/knee/leg injuries are too large a factor. I'd do 2/$17M, $9M guaranteed. I'd even be OK with the second year becoming guaranteed if he plays enough regular season snaps to equal 12 games and plays in the playoffs. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 47m
Jimmy Graham to SEA or NE? Chris Mortensen's reported they may be interested and it's clear why: SEA T-27th, NE T-29th in rec by TE in '13.
 

LOL WUT?  2 1st round picks for Jimmy Graham?  No way.
 
Here is the context to the tweet

 

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyedNESN 1m
Listening to the Mort audio now. Before talking about Graham to the Seahawks or Patriots, he says "this is all theoretical."
 

 

[Stitch01]

Not sure what the exact number should be, but I think that's the right direction/general ballpark with the Talib offer
 
EDIT: Saints should be able to match whatever the Pats offer anyways on Graham, so really doubt anything comes of it.  Im going to spend 60 seconds dreaming about Gronk and Graham in the same lineup just because its fun though.  Then 30 more seconds with Fitzgerald coming about next year.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
His hip/hamstring/knee/leg injuries are too large a factor. I'd do 2/$17M, $9M guaranteed. I'd even be OK with the second year becoming guaranteed if he plays enough regular season snaps to equal 12 games and plays in the playoffs. 

If he signs the aforementioned 3 years, $24 MM, $12 MM guaranteed, if the worst case happens, you can cut him before year 3 and save $4 MM (eating another $4 MM in dead money). Basically, you're willing to give him $1 MM more guaranteed over the next two years in exchange for not having him for $8 MM / $4 MM guaranteed year 3. I don't mind that third year, and even if you end up cutting him it's only $3 MM more. That's not nothing, but I have a hard time drawing a bright line there either.
 
In football, more years is almost always better for the team, because the salaries aren't guaranteed and you can spread the bonus money over more time. Even if it's a player like Talib with a questionable injury status, more years is basically just upside for the team, and they can cut him if things don't work out. It's not like baseball where long-term deals are killers.
 
If Talib does walk - how do you upgrade the D? Do you try to replace him with another big-ticket corner? Do you throw another high pick at the position? Do you try to upgrade the pass rush and just cross your fingers that Ryan / Dennard / Arrington hold up? Do you add a safety and move McCourty back to CB? When the Pats' D looked good last year, Talib was a huge part of that. The D seems like it's finally on the verge of making the leap; I'd hate to take a major step backwards now.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If he signs the aforementioned 3 years, $24 MM, $12 MM guaranteed, if the worst case happens, you can cut him before year 3 and save $4 MM (eating another $4 MM in dead money). Basically, you're willing to give him $1 MM more guaranteed over the next two years in exchange for not having him for $8 MM / $4 MM guaranteed year 3. I don't mind that third year, and even if you end up cutting him it's only $3 MM more. That's not nothing, but I have a hard time drawing a bright line there either.
 
In football, more years is almost always better for the team, because the salaries aren't guaranteed and you can spread the bonus money over more time. Even if it's a player like Talib with a questionable injury status, more years is basically just upside for the team, and they can cut him if things don't work out. It's not like baseball where long-term deals are killers.
 
If Talib does walk - how do you upgrade the D? Do you try to replace him with another big-ticket corner? Do you throw another high pick at the position? Do you try to upgrade the pass rush and just cross your fingers that Ryan / Dennard / Arrington hold up? Do you add a safety and move McCourty back to CB? When the Pats' D looked good last year, Talib was a huge part of that. The D seems like it's finally on the verge of making the leap; I'd hate to take a major step backwards now.

You would have to try to replace him with another big-ticket CB.   IF Revis is available(and we don't know for sure either way), is the difference in salary (say he plays out that aforementioned deal at $24 million) justified in the difference in ability between Talib and Revis?  I wouldn't think so, because it would take away money to spend in other areas, but that is something to think about when deciding to keep or get rid of Talib.

 

[RedOctober3829]

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 1m
The Browns' decision to use the transition tag on Alex Mack means T.J. Ward will hit the market, barring a deal to stay before March 11.
 

 

[Corsi]

No offseason for Belichick
 

 

[Shelterdog]

If he signs the aforementioned 3 years, $24 MM, $12 MM guaranteed, if the worst case happens, you can cut him before year 3 and save $4 MM (eating another $4 MM in dead money). Basically, you're willing to give him $1 MM more guaranteed over the next two years in exchange for not having him for $8 MM / $4 MM guaranteed year 3. I don't mind that third year, and even if you end up cutting him it's only $3 MM more. That's not nothing, but I have a hard time drawing a bright line there either.
 
In football, more years is almost always better for the team, because the salaries aren't guaranteed and you can spread the bonus money over more time. Even if it's a player like Talib with a questionable injury status, more years is basically just upside for the team, and they can cut him if things don't work out. It's not like baseball where long-term deals are killers.
 
If Talib does walk - how do you upgrade the D? Do you try to replace him with another big-ticket corner? Do you throw another high pick at the position? Do you try to upgrade the pass rush and just cross your fingers that Ryan / Dennard / Arrington hold up? Do you add a safety and move McCourty back to CB? When the Pats' D looked good last year, Talib was a huge part of that. The D seems like it's finally on the verge of making the leap; I'd hate to take a major step backwards now.

 
I'm pretty sure McCourty never going back to corner--they've had plenty of opportunities to play him there more last year and while we may think it's a mistake they didn't move him.  You also might keep Gregory around (perhaps on a cheap deal) if you're contemplating it but I can't see the team cutting him if they're seriously considering playing DMC at corner.
 
I'm a big believer in the idea that the best defenses are made by the front six or seven so If I'm the GM and Talib leaves my plan is (1) sign good DL (Tuck/Bryant/Allen) (2) uses a lot of my valuable ammunition on front seven players; and (3) hope that Dennard/Ryan/Arrington/Harmon/McCourty and maybe some low cost signings are good enough.

 

[mpx42]

https://twitter.com/Crushboy31/status/440587438235586561
 
The Patriots do not play the Titans this year.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jarius Byrd also did not get tagged which should put him on the open market next week unless him and the Bills can agree to terms.  Byrd rejected a deal that would have made him the highest paid safety, so the thought is that he will test the market.

 

[dcmissle]

Orakpo was tagged, he and the Skins do not appear close to a new deal, and that's 11.5 MM against the cap. Which goes a good way toward taking these guys out of the Talib waters if they were inclined to enter them.

 

[KiltedFool]

Worilds transition tagged.
 
http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2014/3/3/5467296/jason-worilds-receives-transition-tag

 

[Tony C]

Those Bucs uniforms are incredibly bad right down to the new, larger logo on the helmet. Am I that out of touch on what style designs Nike sells the most of? Weird to see a team in 2014 buck the trend of simple and modern looking and opt instead for the loud and futuristic stuff that characterized the 90's.

 
I really don't get it, either. Presumably Nike has good -- no great -- designers, much more in touch than we are. But...man alive this stuff looks like stuff from a bad 80s video game, and not in a fun retro sort of way.

 

[JohnnyK]

https://twitter.com/RavensInsider/status/440615899297767424

Jimmy Graham is listed as tight end on the franchise player designation by the NFL

Not surprised, but he will surely file a grievance.