Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

[Fishy1]

Not a benching per se, but no need to run him out there every day once Verdugo comes back. Let him round back into form more gradually.

I don't think there's a whole lot of rounding into form that's going to happen. He's gonna get hot, and he's gonna get cold. He's a perfectly average hitter, but the right-handed power is useful to us.

Since he's got the slightest platoon split for his career, obvious thing to do is to play him against LHP and the occasional right-hander when someone really needs a day off. Duran, Verdugo, and Yoshida all crush right-handed pitching, but both Verdugo and Duran have pronounced splits, so I would hope they would give Refsnyder and Duvall the platoon side of those matchups wherever they can.

I suspect Duvall is going to get some "veteran" playing time, though. We'll see, I guess.

 

[Humphrey]

We have the same idea.

 

[YTF]

I don't think there's a whole lot of rounding into form that's going to happen. He's gonna get hot, and he's gonna get cold. He's a perfectly average hitter, but the right-handed power is useful to us.

Since he's got the slightest platoon split for his career, obvious thing to do is to play him against LHP and the occasional right-hander when someone really needs a day off. Duran, Verdugo, and Yoshida all crush right-handed pitching, but both Verdugo and Duran have pronounced splits, so I would hope they would give Refsnyder and Duvall the platoon side of those matchups wherever they can.

I suspect Duvall is going to get some "veteran" playing time, though. We'll see, I guess.

We have the same idea.

Thirded and I'll add that IF there is interest and IF the Sox feel inclined to move him at the deadline, the roughly 2.4M remaining on his contract shouldn't be much of an issue.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Thirded and I'll add that IF there is interest and IF the Sox feel inclined to move him at the deadline, the roughly 2.4M remaining on his contract shouldn't be much of an issue.

On the other hand, he signed for not-that-much money relatively late in the offseason, so it's not like there was a lot of demand then for his services. Teams know that he's a relatively limited player. He's not going to fetch much in a trade, especially if his bat doesn't get going.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Most of the pitchers he is facing are in mid-season form and he's still trying to catch up from the injury. He probably won't until after the ASB, possibly as late as the deadline. I said to cut him now in the game thread, but that's the game thread. The more rational part of my brain says that he needs the reps, even if it has terrible outcomes must of the time, and the team is not going anywhere, so just run him out there until he figures it out or until his season average dips below .100. Best case scenario? He turns it around in the next few weeks and they deal him for value. Worst case is they're out the money with very little to show for it, which is kind of par for the course lately.

He's a decent CF who has some pop. There are absolutely going to be offers at the deadline. He's the definition of a postseason rental, so it won't be a ton - a C-level prospect, presumably - but unless the Sox get really hot there is very little reason not to trade him for the best return they can get even if that return is not amazing.

 

[ngruz25]

He hit a career high 38 home runs in 2021

Despite clubbing a bunch of home runs in 2021, his SLG actually decreased from 2019 and 2020. Mainly due to a ghastly .281 OBP. In other words, the counting stats looked nice, but he still got worse as a hitter.

He reminds me of Chris Carter with much better defense. Carter pretty famously lead the league in HRs one year and was out of baseball the next.

 

[YTF]

On the other hand, he signed for not-that-much money relatively late in the offseason, so it's not like there was a lot of demand then for his services. Teams know that he's a relatively limited player. He's not going to fetch much in a trade, especially if his bat doesn't get going.

There's really no "other hand" to my scenario. Teams have different needs in late July than they have in late November and l'm not looking to reset the franchise based on anything Duvall might bring.

 

[E5 Yaz]

He reminds me of Chris Carter with much better defense. Carter pretty famously lead the league in HRs one year and was out of baseball the next.

He actually did play the next year, but it was his last season

 

[joe dokes]

Its taken awhile, but Duvall is giving me some (good) Hunter Renfroe-ish vibes.
It comes at a good time, with Verdugo scuffling.

 

[AB in DC]

He's bounced back a bit but still a ways from Renfroe 2021. His wRC+ in July is only 94 despite the soft schedule (up from an awful 45 in June).

 

[chawson]

He's bounced back a bit but still a ways from Renfroe 2021. His wRC+ in July is only 94 despite the soft schedule (up from an awful 45 in June).

True, though I'm optimistic. It's arguable that his first three weeks back were a kind of extended spring training (a span of typically three weeks). He's been much better after that.

First 8 games (3/30–4/9): .624 wOBA, 8.1 BB%, 85.5% contact rate, 13 hard hit balls in 28 BBE (batted ball events, 46.4%)
~injury~
Next 23 games (6/9–7/4): .224 wOBA, 6.9 BB%, 68.9% contact rate, 14 hard hit balls in 45 BBE (31.1%)
Last 10 games (7/9–7/26): .392 wOBA, 7.9 BB%, 74.6% contact rate, 9 hard hit balls in 22 BBE (40.9%)

OTOH, the chase rate trend within those corresponding those windows are a little worrisome.

First 8 - 25.6%
Next 23 - 39.3%
Last 10 - 42.9%

 

[OCD SS]

My concern with trading Duval is general depth. After the deadline your team is pretty much set and any injury to a staring OF puts you in a hole it will be tough to recover from (& Rafaella isn’t somebody for this year).

I think there’s a chance he’s dealt if he brings back a solid piece, but I think we should acknowledge that risk.

 

[YTF]

My concern with trading Duval is general depth. After the deadline your team is pretty much set and any injury to a staring OF puts you in a hole it will be tough to recover from (& Rafaella isn’t somebody for this year).

I think there’s a chance he’s dealt if he brings back a solid piece, but I think we should acknowledge that risk.

Outside of the Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo and RFsnyder, Abreau is the only other OF on the 40 man.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Outside of the Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo and RFsnyder, Abreau is the only other OF on the 40 man.

Reyes can be counted in the mix as well.

 

[JM3]

Outside of the Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo and RFsnyder, Abreau is the only other OF on the 40 man.

I think they're prepared to use Pablo Reyes in the OF, too.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Since others have jumped in on the Reyes train, I'll just add his stats. 355 innings of experience there.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

Ouch, his infield fld% is... less than inspiring

 

[YTF]

Reyes can be counted in the mix as well.

I think they're prepared to use Pablo Reyes in the OF, too.

100%, thanks for the reminder. Even with Reyes I think they're a bit thin if they move Duval in the midst of a WC race. That said I also think Chaim still takes inquiries.

 

[JM3]

100%, thanks for the reminder. Even with Reyes I think they're a bit thin if they move Duval in the midst of a WC race. That said I also think Chaim still takes inquiries.

& of course Bobby Dalbec regularly plays RF for Worcester lately (including today).

I think they don't move Duvall unless they're prepared to break the glass on either of Rafaela or Abreu in case of injury. No idea if they are.

 

[chrisfont9]

& of course Bobby Dalbec regularly plays RF for Worcester lately (including today).

I think they don't move Duvall unless they're prepared to break the glass on either of Rafaela or Abreu in case of injury. No idea if they are.

The price tag for Duvall has to be going up. He has carry-the-team upside, at least in spurts. I would err in the direction of keeping him unless they get an amazing offer. At some level it's about mojo, and he's a real positive there. The message of trading him isn't great.

 

[bosockboy]

The price tag for Duvall has to be going up. He has carry-the-team upside, at least in spurts. I would err in the direction of keeping him unless they get an amazing offer. At some level it's about mojo, and he's a real positive there. The message of trading him isn't great.

Yeah if you’re trying to win, you keep him. At worst he’s a valuable 10th hitter.

 

[TFisNEXT]

& of course Bobby Dalbec regularly plays RF for Worcester lately (including today).

I think they don't move Duvall unless they're prepared to break the glass on either of Rafaela or Abreu in case of injury. No idea if they are.

Agreed on this. Duvall is starting to hit again too, and if they believe they are making a run, they’re gonna want that right handed power.

Obviously if someone knocks your socks off, you trade him, but unless the team does a 180 in the next 5-6 games, then you prob keep him for the stretch run. It’s worth noting that he’s the only real backup for CF too at the moment.

 

[OCD SS]

Outside of the Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo and RFsnyder, Abreau is the only other OF on the 40 man.

My point being that if one of Yoshida, Duran, or Verdugo go down for a significant period, how happy are you with Refsnyder (platoon bat), Reyes (who strikes me as similar to Chang/ Kike) or Abreau (?) stepping in as a starter? The return on Duval has to include that risk…

 

[derekson]

My point being that if one of Yoshida, Duran, or Verdugo go down for a significant period, how happy are you with Refsnyder (platoon bat), Reyes (who strikes me as similar to Chang/ Kike) or Abreau (?) stepping in as a starter? The return on Duval has to include that risk…

In addition to being the best option to start every day if one of the other OF is injured, Duvall can work into the lineup once or twice per week with JT at 2B now that it's clear he's still fine there defensively. It's hard to see how trading Duvall makes any sense unless the return is something crazy.

 

[YTF]

My point being that if one of Yoshida, Duran, or Verdugo go down for a significant period, how happy are you with Refsnyder (platoon bat), Reyes (who strikes me as similar to Chang/ Kike) or Abreau (?) stepping in as a starter? The return on Duval has to include that risk…

Yes, I was further making your point by mentioning the remaining option on the 40 man roster.

 

[JM3]

It's definitely not hard picturing Rafaela being a ton of fun in a Red Sox uniform...

View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1684735955389886464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1684735955389886464%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

 

[chrisfont9]

It's definitely not hard picturing Rafaela being a ton of fun in a Red Sox uniform...

View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1684735955389886464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1684735955389886464%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Ha! He probably won't get bases handed to him like that too often in the majors.

 

[JM3]

Ha! He probably won't get bases handed to him like that too often in the majors.

Maybe someone will pick up Alfaro when Reese comes back? (Reese is 2-3 with an RBI double today for Worcester).

But C Note has been earning bases, too...

.315 average, .987 OPS in 98 PAs with Worcester.

 

[JimM]

We were at the game tonight and down at field level waiting for my son to be recognized as the vet for the game and saw that up close. It was pretty amazing. We had a great view of the slide into home. We thought he was crazy trying to score but he made it fairly easily.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Ha! He probably won't get bases handed to him like that too often in the majors.

Unless he's traded to another team and hits 4 singles against the 2023 Red Sox. He may turn that into 4 little league home runs. (I kid).

What are the updated reports on Rafaela's arm? Sox Prospects calls it a "plus arm...his throws have good carry", which to me sounds like someone that would translate well to RF (especially with the need for "two centerfielders" at the Fens. Duran grades out to an above average arm (65th% per his baseball savant page) but if Rafaela has a better arm, would it make more sense to envision a long term scenario of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela in the OF.

If that is feasible, I could see where @chawson idea to trade Verdugo now (either in an upgrade for pitching or MI2 OR for prospects to use to acquire said pieces) with Duvall in RF for now and Rafaela on the way might make more sense, as one assumes that Verdugo is seen as far more valuable on the trade front than Duvall (at least if BTV is at all reliable).

I had / have been very much on the train of trading Duvall to get playing time for younger players and address those two holes, but if Rafaela (or Duran) can profile to RF long term, I could definitely see the appeal of trading the player with more value (Verdugo) and going Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, Refsnyder the rest of this year with the plan being to go some combination of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela in some mix long term.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Unless he's traded to another team and hits 4 singles against the 2023 Red Sox. He may turn that into 4 little league home runs. (I kid).

What are the updated reports on Rafaela's arm? Sox Prospects calls it a "plus arm...his throws have good carry", which to me sounds like someone that would translate well to RF (especially with the need for "two centerfielders" at the Fens. Duran grades out to an above average arm (65th% per his baseball savant page) but if Rafaela has a better arm, would it make more sense to envision a long term scenario of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela in the OF.

If that is feasible, I could see where @chawson idea to trade Verdugo now (either in an upgrade for pitching or MI2 OR for prospects to use to acquire said pieces) with Duvall in RF for now and Rafaela on the way might make more sense, as one assumes that Verdugo is seen as far more valuable on the trade front than Duvall (at least if BTV is at all reliable).

I had / have been very much on the train of trading Duvall to get playing time for younger players and address those two holes, but if Rafaela (or Duran) can profile to RF long term, I could definitely see the appeal of trading the player with more value (Verdugo) and going Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, Refsnyder the rest of this year with the plan being to go some combination of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela in some mix long term.

The underlying stuff with Rafaela is still really challenging. He swings at everything. There is a very real chance his bat is so poor at the major league level that he'd be a below replacement player.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The underlying stuff with Rafaela is still really challenging. He swings at everything. There is a very real chance his bat is so poor at the major league level that he'd be a below replacement player.

If the Sox feel this way (and you could easily be right, and they might) they should trade him while his value is ostensibly highest, then.

Personally, I think his very good to excellent performance at the higher levels of the minors at such a young age on the age advancement scale, even with his swing profile, warrant making him a piece to bank on. But if they don't, move him.

I continually say to move Bleis (because of the presence of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela and Anthony), but if the organization believes more in Bleis and less in Rafaela (for reasons mentioned above, or others that we don't know about) move Rafaela as a piece to get a top half of the rotation piece with term then (ie, let Bloom find his version of the Beckett or Sale deals, though admittedly hopefully at the deadline to help with this year too).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

If the Sox feel this way (and they might, I dunno) they should trade him while his value is ostensibly highest, then.

Personally, I think his very good to excellent performance at the higher levels of the minors at such a young age on the age advancement scale, even with his swing profile, warrant making him a piece to bank on. But if they don't, move him.

I continually say to move Bleis, but if the organization believes more in Bleis and less in Rafaela (for reasons mentioned above, or others that we don't know about) move Rafaela as a piece to get a top half of the rotation piece with term then.

They aren't though. People tend to look at slash lines and make way to much of what they see. The amount of current major leaguers with a walk rate of 2% is zero. There isn't one of them. His closest batting comp would be a much worse version of Mauricio Dubon, but Dubon is much much better at making contact.

Rafaela's defense in Center and SS with his base running makes his floor very high of being a bench piece, but the bat, it's really scary and not something that you can pencil in as an everyday contributor.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

They aren't though. People tend to look at slash lines and make way to much of what they see. The amount of current major leaguers with a walk rate of 2% is zero. There isn't one of them. His closest batting comp would be a much worse version of Mauricio Dubon, but Dubon is much much better at making contact.

Rafaela's defense in Center and SS with his base running makes his floor very high of being a bench piece, but the bat, it's really scary and not something that you can pencil in as an everyday contributor.

Totally valid. So if the Sox share that thought process - which they very well could - and that his BB rate won't normalize back to the ~5% number it was in A+ and AA, move him for something that helps now and in the future.

 

[Max Power]

Totally valid. So if the Sox share that thought process - which they very well could - and that his BB rate won't normalize back to the ~5% number it was in A+ and AA, move him for something that helps now and in the future.

Is baseball locking all rosters for the next 5 years at the trade deadline? The Red Sox control his rights for many years; there's no need to use the crystal ball and decide if he's ever going to develop patience at the plate this week.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Is baseball locking all rosters for the next 5 years at the trade deadline? The Red Sox control his rights for many years; there's no need to use the crystal ball and decide if he's ever going to develop patience at the plate this week.

Obviously not. But I can certainly see the value of making an actual call on some prospects at this deadline to acquire a starting pitcher that should help for the next 2.5 of those 5 years being a worthwhile endeavor.

In no way am I advocating moving Rafaela (or anyone close to him) for 2 months of Lucas Giolito, but for multiple seasons of a top half of the rotation pitcher, I think that would make sense in "extending" the window.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Obviously not. But I can certainly see the value of making an actual call on some prospects at this deadline to acquire a starting pitcher that should help for the next 2.5 of those 5 years being a worthwhile endeavor.

In no way am I advocating moving Rafaela (or anyone close to him) for 2 months of Lucas Giolito, but for multiple seasons of a top half of the rotation pitcher, I think that would make sense in "extending" the window.

Who, though? Top of the rotation pitchers with multiple years of control don’t really exist on teams that aren’t contending. There’s perhaps a handful of players that fit this bill.

 

[walt in maryland]

Outside of the Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo and RFsnyder, Abreau is the only other OF on the 40 man.

Rafaela is on the 40 too

 

[walt in maryland]

If the Sox feel this way (and you could easily be right, and they might) they should trade him while his value is ostensibly highest, then.

Personally, I think his very good to excellent performance at the higher levels of the minors at such a young age on the age advancement scale, even with his swing profile, warrant making him a piece to bank on. But if they don't, move him.

I continually say to move Bleis (because of the presence of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela and Anthony), but if the organization believes more in Bleis and less in Rafaela (for reasons mentioned above, or others that we don't know about) move Rafaela as a piece to get a top half of the rotation piece with term then (ie, let Bloom find his version of the Beckett or Sale deals, though admittedly hopefully at the deadline to help with this year too).

Other teams see the same chase rate as the Red Sox. Rafaela will play in the majors, but his ability to address this issue will determine whether he can play regularly or just be a valuable part-time player

 

[Fishy1]

They aren't though. People tend to look at slash lines and make way to much of what they see. The amount of current major leaguers with a walk rate of 2% is zero. There isn't one of them. His closest batting comp would be a much worse version of Mauricio Dubon, but Dubon is much much better at making contact.

Rafaela's defense in Center and SS with his base running makes his floor very high of being a bench piece, but the bat, it's really scary and not something that you can pencil in as an everyday contributor.

Let's pump the breaks on this 2% BB rate stuff. Rafaela is having a particularly hacky 100 PA in AAA, but in 500 PA in AA his walk rate was about 5.2%. That's below average, certainly, but it's not as horrifying as you're making it out to be.

Now, the list of guys who are above average hitters with a walk rate of 5% isn't very big, but there's quite a few of them who are average-ish: Here's the list, sorted by BB%. The differentiator is either exceptional contact skills or a little bit of pop.

Bo Bichette is a good example of a guy with good contact skills who has a very low BB rate but is a contributor offensively, in part based on his pop (which Ceddane has). I don't think Ceddane's contact numbers are on Bichette's level, but the pop is very real.

 

[YTF]

Rafaela is on the 40 too

I didn't mention him as I believe the team has mentioned a preference to let him develope in AAA and the poster I quoted stated that he didn't see Rafaela as an option this season.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Who, though? Top of the rotation pitchers with multiple years of control don’t really exist on teams that aren’t contending. There’s perhaps a handful of players that fit this bill.

Agree - and go after those players.

Cease is the obvious choice.

I think Logan Gilbert is a less obvious one, but a name I'd love to see. Yes, he'd be expensive, but Seattle has Castillo, Kirby, Ray coming back, Woo and Miller pitching well and a horrible farm system. While - again - no the be all and end all, Bleis, Whitlock, Verdugo and Yorke for Gilbert and Hernandez checks out as pretty much exactly fair on BTV. *Kirby is likely way too much*.

Miami is in a similar spot to the Sox right now, but with pitching coming out of all orifices (as opposed to any hitting) so identify which of Garrett or Cabrera you like best (is it Garrett's xFIP of 3.07 or Cabrera's nearly all red baseball savant page) and find a "need for need" deal. They should also cost far less than Cease or Gilbert, but they also aren't as good - unless one strongly believes in Garrett's xFIP as being predictive. (Perez slides in for whomever they move).

Those are (descending order) the names I'd focus on.

Obviously prospects of the caliber mentioned above should only be moved in a "your guy who isn't 'available' for my prospects who aren't 'available'" kind of deal.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1696277245042508095

 

[AB in DC]

I wonder what kind of market he'll have this off-season. Might be worth a QO even

 

[Max Power]

I wonder what kind of market he'll have this off-season. Might be worth a QO even

His career best OBP in a season was .315 before now and he turns 35 next week. He hits bombs and has a knack for driving in runs, so he's a useful player, but not someone you commit big dollars to. He'll probably sign in the $10 million range again.

 

[bosockboy]

His career best OBP in a season was .315 before now and he turns 35 next week. He hits bombs and has a knack for driving in runs, so he's a useful player, but not someone you commit big dollars to. He'll probably sign in the $10 million range again.

His injury was fluky, and without it, is a 30/100 guy this season. He’ll get like 3/36.

 

[chawson]

Highly doubt Duvall is getting more than $25. He strikes out a ton, and other teams probably see how much he benefits at Fenway.

C.J. Cron's 2/$14.5M deal with the Rockies a couple years ago seems like a comp. Maybe a bit higher, but it depends what we do with Verdugo. Someone will give Duvall a full-time role, and if all we've got is a timeshare with Duran, Verdugo and Yoshida, there's not a lot of point in going that high.

 

[moondog80]

If Duvall got 1 year at 7 mil coming off a season with an OPS+ of 86 this past offseason, I'll take the over on 2/14.5 this year with an OPS+ of 144 (or whatever he regresses to).

I think the QO is in play. Joc Pederson was offered one last year (which he accepted) after a 433 PA, 274/353/521 season. Duvall is at 270 PA and 276/334/593. Duvall is 4 years older, but he also will stand out more in a fairly poor class of FA hitters, and is passable in CF in a way that Pederson is not.

 

[Fishy1]

If Duvall got 1 year at 7 mil coming off a season with an OPS+ of 86 this past offseason, I'll take the over on 2/14.5 this year with an OPS+ of 144 (or whatever he regresses to).

I think the QO is in play. Joc Pederson was offered one last year (which he accepted) after a 433 PA, 244/355/430 season. Duvall is at 270 PA and 276/334/593. Duvall is 4 years older, but he also will stand out more in a fairly poor class of FA hitters.

It's definitely career-year stuff from Duvall. If he sustained this pace over 500 PA I would be stunned. The guy has been absolutely on fire but a 142 wrc+ would be 22 points higher than his next best year.

I think he'll get paid though. Someone will hope it's not just a hot streak.

 

[moondog80]

It's definitely career-year stuff from Duvall. If he sustained this pace over 500 PA I would be stunned. The guy has been absolutely on fire but a 142 wrc+ would be 22 points higher than his next best year.

I think he'll get paid though. Someone will hope it's not just a hot streak.

No question it looks like a career year. It was one for Pederson too (and he has regressed).

If they offer it, I suspect it will be with the hope that he declines, but not catastrophic if he accepts.